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The 1.5°C Imperative

To avoid catastrophic climate change, we must stabilize the global climate at 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. This requires drastic action: global greenhouse gas emissions must be halved by 2030 compared to 2020 and reach Net Zero by 2050. 

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) suggests that to meet the 1.5°C climate target, global greenhouse gas emissions in 2050 should not exceed 7 billion tons, and 19 billion tons to stay within a 2°C limit.

Achieving this requires rapid reductions of our current emissions levels, as well as scientific and technological advancements in carbon sequestration and removal (see: Exceeding 1.5°C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points.)

The Role of Small Businesses

Collectively, small businesses contribute substantially to the economy, underscoring the importance of their participation in carbon offsetting initiatives, since despite what we may think, their carbon footprints are far from being negligible. Even at the lowest end of the scale, office workers at SMEs generate between 1 to 6 tons of CO2 per employee annually (see www.epa.gov/energy/greenhouse-gas-equivalencies-calculator). Stats for employees in industrial and commercial companies are of course much higher. The significant drivers for emissions at most SMEs are: 

  • Air travel
  • Office mobility,
  • Heating / Cooling
  • Electricity
  • Waste management. 

Carbon Credits

While offsets are crucial for businesses and individuals looking to reduce their emissions, the reality is that some emissions will always remain on the balance. These emissions can be neutralized through the purchase of carbon credits, which are certificates representing a reduction of one tonne of carbon dioxide (or its equivalent in other greenhouse gasses).  These credits can be traded on the global carbon market, or purchased directly from businesses, fostering a dynamic market environment driven by reducing GHG emissions. 

Carbon Credits vs. National GHG Policies

Incorporating carbon offsets into national GHG strategies is vital for reducing the overall costs associated with emission reductions. This approach supports both nature-based solutions and technological innovations in achieving a net-zero balance.

Nature-Based Solutions and Their Impact

Nature-based solutions leverage ecosystems to absorb CO2 emissions from the atmosphere. These solutions not only represent avoided emissions but also significantly impact the global climate by removing greenhouse gasses from the air. Trading in carbon credits (see below), which represent these emissions reductions, helps businesses and countries meet their environmental goals.

Market Dynamics and Pricing

The price of carbon credits varies based on the type of credit and prevailing market conditions. Recent demand spikes indicate market volatility and the growing importance of carbon markets in environmental strategies. However, concerns persist about whether current prices are sufficient to meet the objectives of the Paris Agreement. Prices are projected to need an increase to $30-$100 per ton to effectively contribute to these goals.

Key Players in the Carbon Offset Market

The carbon offset market features several key players, including:

  • Project Developers: These entities initiate projects that generate carbon credits, representing the supply side of the market.
  • Carbon Brokers and Trading Firms: These firms play a crucial role in matching supply with demand. They acquire large quantities of credits to create portfolios sold to end buyers or act as intermediaries.
  • End Buyers: Companies and individuals looking to offset their GHG emissions form the demand side of the market.
  • Certification Standards: Non-governmental organizations (NGOs) ensure that projects adhere to specific goals and emission reduction volumes.

Carbon markets comprise two segments: 

  1. The Compliance Market, where companies must comply with governmental emission reduction targets. 
  2. The  Voluntary Market, where companies choose to offset their emissions.

Voluntary Carbon Markets

Voluntary carbon markets (VCM) are platforms that provide a robust, reliable, and secure way to offset emissions that cannot be reduced or sequestered, and as such play an essential role in global efforts to combat climate change. VCMs rely on the principles of supply and demand to determine the value and availability of carbon credits. 

The dynamic nature of voluntary carbon markets is evident from the continuous evolution and recognition within industry circles, as highlighted by the Environmental Finance Voluntary Carbon Market Rankings 2023, where over 4,300 companies participated.

Voluntary carbon markets play a crucial role in directing financial resources toward global emissions reduction or elimination activities that would otherwise be impossible due to insufficient political and economic incentives.

Companies engage in these markets, not because of legal obligations but to proactively manage their environmental impacts. By choosing to offset their emissions voluntarily, companies demonstrate environmental responsibility and contribute to a sustainable future.

Voluntary Carbon Markets are Growing 

The voluntary carbon market has seen impressive growth over recent years. According to Ecosystem Marketplace, 2023 saw the value of the market hold at $1.98bn. Key sectors such as energy, consumer goods, finance, and insurance are leading the purchasing of these markets. Additionally, nature-based and renewable energy credits are gaining significant traction within the VCM.

Future Projections for Voluntary Carbon Market

Looking ahead, the demand for carbon credits is projected to surge. By 2030, annual global demand could reach between 1.5 to 2.0 gigatons of CO2, and by 2050 this could increase to as high as 13 gigatons. Market size predictions for 2030 range from $5 billion to more than $50 billion, depending on various price scenarios influenced by factors like rising carbon emissions, the expansion of carbon pricing initiatives, and increased adoption of Net Zero targets.

Voluntary Carbon Market Challenges

Despite these optimistic projections, challenges remain. Annually, about 34 billion tons of CO2 are emitted globally, yet the available offsets listed on registries only cover around 300-400 million tons—less than 1% of total emissions. This highlights a significant gap in the market’s ability to fully compensate for global CO2 emissions. The potential size of the VCM by 2050 will largely depend on global efforts to reduce residual emissions under Net Zero targets. 

The Benefits of Voluntary Carbon Market Action

Participation in voluntary carbon markets offers a unique opportunity. It allows businesses and private individuals to act towards the transition to a lower-carbon economy and help mitigate the worst effects of climate change. The purchase of carbon credits supports projects that reduce or eliminate emissions. This market-driven approach helps channel funds into environmentally beneficial activities and overcomes the aforementioned limitations of inadequate incentives.

U.S. Climate Efforts 

The U.S. is undergoing significant shifts in energy production and consumption patterns to align with national and global climate objectives. Central to these efforts is the shift toward renewable energy sources. Wind energy, particularly offshore wind farms, stands out due to its efficiency and cost-effectiveness compared to other energy sources. As of this week (April 2024), the Biden Administration has announced plans to speed up the approval process for renewable energy projects. 

U.S. Demand for Carbon Credits

As the younger generations, for whom climate issues are a primary agenda, take a growing role in the economy, and as existing state and regional greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction programs and anticipated federal regulations go into effect, a growing number of companies are starting to take action driving an increasing demand for carbon offsets in the U.S. 

The latest stats for carbon credit demand in the US indicate a record demand for carbon offsets in 2023. Companies purchased and retired a record 164 million offsets in 2023, up 6% from the previous year. In December 2023 alone, 37 million credits were retired, marking a 43% increase from the previous highest month. 

This surge in activity demonstrates a strong commitment by companies to achieve their net-zero goals through carbon offsetting, and while most of this is still coming from major corporations, the trend is undeniable.

Conclusion:
Your Strategic Advantages in U.S. VCM

As climate change continues to pose real threats to global economic stability, the engagement of U.S.-based SMEs in these markets is not only an ethical decision but a strategic one as well. By investing in carbon offsets, SMEs can enhance their brand reputation, meet consumer demand for sustainable practices, and gain a competitive edge in a more sustainable future.

The voluntary carbon market provides a flexible and impactful way for U.S. SMEs to address their environmental impact. By purchasing carbon credits, these businesses contribute directly to projects that reduce greenhouse gasses, ranging from renewable energy to forest conservation. This action helps mitigate their own carbon footprint and supports the broader transition to a lower-carbon economy.

Furthermore, as regulatory landscapes evolve and consumer preferences shift towards more sustainable products and services, SMEs that proactively reduce their emissions will find themselves better positioned. The voluntary carbon markets offer a pathway for these businesses to not only comply with upcoming regulations but also to lead in sustainability, creating opportunities for growth and innovation. This proactive approach in the voluntary carbon markets is essential for any SME aiming to secure its place in a future-oriented sustainable U.S. economy.

To learn more about how your organization can become Net Zero see our recent case study.

Feel free to contact us for an initial consultation.

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U.S. Nuclear Industry Set for Big Changes as Government Plans to Cut Red Tape

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U.S. Nuclear Industry Set for Big Changes as Government Plans to Cut Red Tape

This is a special guest editorial from Katusa Research.

The U.S. nuclear power industry is about to experience its biggest shift in decades. The White House plans to announce new executive orders that could make the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) largely powerless. These orders let the Department of Energy (DoE) and Department of Defense (DoD) skip the NRC’s strict rules. This will speed up the construction of new nuclear power plants.

For over 5 decades, the NRC has been the main government agency overseeing nuclear plant safety and licensing. But many experts and industry leaders say the NRC’s complicated rules and slow approvals have stopped new nuclear plants from being built.

The NRC’s licensing process has grown from a simple 50-page document to an overwhelming 1,100 pages. The last approved reactor needed about 12,000 pages of paperwork. It also had millions of supporting documents.

Because of these heavy rules and outdated 1970s standards, the NRC hasn’t approved any new nuclear plant designs since 1978. Former NRC Commissioner Jeffrey Merrifield said the agency “doesn’t know when to stop” with new regulations. This is a major reason why new nuclear projects struggle to move forward.

US nuclear power electricity vs nuclear reactors
Source: Katusa Research

Why Both Political Parties Support Nuclear Energy

For the first time since President Nixon, both Democrats and Republicans agree on supporting nuclear power. Democrats want nuclear energy to help fight climate change and reach net-zero carbon goals. Republicans see it as vital for U.S. energy independence and creating new jobs.

Nuclear power is key to 3 big goals for the U.S.:

  • Nuclear Exports. The U.S. can regain leadership in exporting nuclear technology, which is expected to be a $1.9 trillion global market by 2050. Currently, China and Russia control two-thirds of this market.
  • National Security. Nuclear power supports the supply chain for nuclear weapons and is crucial for defense.
  • Energy Security. Nuclear energy offers a reliable, self-sufficient power source, helping reduce dependence on foreign energy.

Because of these reasons, Congress has passed multiple laws over the past decade to force the NRC to update and speed up its licensing process. But progress has been slow.

Other countries like Canada and the UK have already updated their nuclear approval systems. Canada is investing heavily in next-generation nuclear technology to amplify its clean power supply.

In 2024, the U.S. Congress passed the ADVANCE Act, which pushes the NRC to modernize. It aims to make reviews for advanced nuclear reactors simpler and faster. Still, the NRC has struggled to implement these changes.

Power Shift to the Department of Energy and Defense

The new executive orders will shift power away from the NRC and give more control to the Department of Energy and the Department of Defense. Both agencies strongly support nuclear energy and have large budgets to back new projects.

US federal nuclear energy budget
Source: Katusa Research

In 2022, the DoE started a $6 billion Civil Nuclear Credit Program. It aims to extend the life of current reactors and support new types of nuclear reactors. It’s also giving $1.5 billion to reopen the Palisades nuclear plant—the first such reopening in U.S. history. The DoE’s former secretary, Jennifer Granholm, said the U.S. needs to triple its nuclear reactors by 2050.

The DoD also uses nuclear power for its massive energy needs and owns mobile nuclear reactors. It can take risks that private companies cannot and has a budget that could fund enough nuclear power to cover 85% of U.S. electricity demand.

The DoD and DoE plan to team up and invest in advanced nuclear reactors. They aim to connect a new reactor to the grid in 3 years.

Why This Could Be a Historic Moment

These moves could kickstart a nuclear renaissance in the U.S., similar to the scale of the Manhattan Project during World War II. The government has signed contracts with companies to build advanced reactors by 2029. Billions of dollars in funding are expected to flow to this sector.

Experts believe this push will lower the cost of nuclear energy by about 60%, making it more competitive with other power sources. This could open new doors in uranium mining, nuclear fuel production, infrastructure, and nuclear tech investment.

What This Means for Private Nuclear Companies

The expected executive orders could be a game changer for private companies working on nuclear technology. Startups and energy developers have struggled for years. They deal with long delays, high costs, and complex paperwork to get approval for new nuclear reactors. Some applications have taken more than 10 years and cost hundreds of millions of dollars before a single shovel hits the ground.

With the NRC pushed aside, companies might finally have a faster path to approve and build new designs. This is key for startups creating advanced nuclear reactors and small modular reactors (SMRs). SMRs are smaller, safer, and easier to build than traditional plants.

Now, instead of waiting for NRC approval, companies may be able to work directly with the DoE or the DoD. These agencies are more supportive and flexible. They already have funding programs, partnerships with developers, and a goal to build advanced reactors quickly.

Private firms like TerraPower, X-energy, and Oklo have been waiting for years to move forward. Under the new system, these companies could see faster permits, more government contracts, and easier access to funding. They may even get a chance to work on national defense or grid reliability projects led by the DoE or DoD.

This shift could spark a wave of innovation, job creation, and clean energy development across the country. If it works, it could also encourage more investors to put money into nuclear startups—knowing the government is serious about getting projects built.

The Clock Is Ticking

With the new executive orders expected soon, the nuclear industry and investors have limited time to prepare for this wave of change. Many believe this could be one of the most important energy transitions in decades and offer profitable opportunities for those ready to act.

The post U.S. Nuclear Industry Set for Big Changes as Government Plans to Cut Red Tape appeared first on Carbon Credits.

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Svante Opens World’s First Gigafactory for Carbon Capture in Canada

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Svante Opens World's First Gigafactory for Carbon Capture in Canada

Svante Technologies, a Canadian carbon capture company, has launched the world’s first commercial-scale gigafactory for carbon capture filters. This is a big step in the fight against climate change.

Located in Burnaby, British Columbia, the facility officially opened in May 2025. The factory will help speed up the use of carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies by making the production of carbon filters faster and more cost-effective.

With rising global emissions and increased focus on net-zero goals, Svante’s new plant offers a timely solution. The gigafactory is built to capture millions of tons of carbon dioxide (CO₂) every year. It helps industries cut their carbon footprint and meet regulations. As the carbon capture market continues to grow, the facility could help change how industries respond to climate change.

Scaling Up: Inside the Burnaby Gigafactory

The 140,000-square-foot facility, named the Redwood City Gigafactory, is the first of its kind. Svante makes solid sorbent filters. These filters trap CO₂ from factories and even from the air. These filters are then integrated into carbon capture systems used in sectors such as cement, steel, hydrogen, and power generation.

Svante’s filter technology relies on a material called metal-organic frameworks (MOFs). These materials are known for their high surface area and ability to trap gas molecules like CO₂.

Compared to traditional systems, Svante’s filters are lighter, more compact, and faster to produce. They need less energy to regenerate. This leads to lower costs and fewer emissions during operation.

The facility can produce filter modules to capture up to 10 million tonnes of CO₂ each year, according to company estimates. That’s roughly the equivalent of taking over 2 million gasoline-powered cars off the road each year.

The Redwood factory is designed for rapid manufacturing and can scale up production as demand grows. The factory uses automation and digital tools. It also monitors data to boost quality control and cut waste.

Partnerships and Financial Support Fuel Growth

The construction and launch of the gigafactory would not have been possible without strong public and private backing. Svante raised $318 million in total since 2007, including a major $145 million Series E fundraising round in 2022.

Investors include: Chevron New Energies, United Airlines Ventures, Samsung Engineering & Construction, Temasek, GE Vernova, and Breakthrough Energy Ventures.

In addition to private investment, the Government of Canada contributed CA$25 million through its Strategic Innovation Fund. This funding sped up factory construction. It also shows Canada’s commitment to leading in carbon management technologies.

Beyond financing, Svante is also working with several partners to expand its reach. Here are some of their major partnerships:

  • Samsung E&A signed a joint development agreement to build skid-mounted modular carbon capture plants.

  • Climeworks, a direct air capture company, is using Svante filters for its next-generation CO₂ removal systems.

  • Tenaska, a U.S. energy firm, is working with Svante to develop end-to-end CCS projects that include capture, transportation, and storage of CO₂.

  • BASF signed a commercial agreement to supply Svante with CALF-20, an advanced MOF sorbent used in its filter systems.

These partnerships lower project risk, simplify deployment, and encourage CCS technology use in various sectors.

Market Drivers and Industry Demand

Demand for carbon capture technology is growing rapidly. According to BloombergNEF, the global market for carbon capture and removal could reach $100 billion by 2030. This growth comes from stricter climate rules, net-zero goals, and rising investment in clean tech.

  • If all the planned carbon capture projects are built and running by 2030, they could remove around 279 million tons of CO₂ a year—still just 0.6% of the emissions the world produces today.

global carbon capture projection 2030

For many industries—especially heavy emitters like cement, steel, and oil refining—carbon capture is one of the few practical solutions to reduce emissions. These sectors usually have few choices for using renewable energy. They need solutions that fit into their current infrastructure.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) states that to stay on track for net-zero emissions by 2050, the world will need to capture over 1.2 billion tonnes of CO₂ per year by 2030. Today, only about 50 million tonnes are captured annually.

carbon capture capacity by 2030 IEA
Source: IEA Report

Facilities like Svante’s gigafactory are crucial to scaling up the supply chain and meeting this growing need.

In the United States, the Inflation Reduction Act has also increased interest in carbon capture. The law boosts the value of the 45Q tax credit to $85 per tonne of CO₂ captured and stored. This financial support has made projects more attractive to investors and energy companies.

Building a Carbon Capture Economy

The launch of Svante’s gigafactory is more than a milestone for the company—it signals a shift in how carbon capture solutions can be delivered. Svante focuses on mass production, modular systems, and global partnerships. This approach aims to make carbon capture cheaper, faster, and more scalable.

CEO Claude Letourneau remarked:

“We’re also proud to launch this transformative manufacturing facility in Canada, which allows us to bring the supply chain to our shores and bring carbon management solutions closer to the needs of emitting industries in North America.”

Also, Svante’s method helps create a carbon market. Here, captured emissions become tradable carbon credits. As carbon pricing rises, expected to exceed $50 per tonne in some markets by 2026, industries may invest more in carbon removal for the long term.

The Redwood facility’s success could lead to new ways to use carbon. Captured CO₂ might be turned into fuels, building materials, or other products. This circular economy model can help industries not only reduce their footprint but also find new revenue streams.

Laying the Foundation for a Cleaner Future

Svante Technologies’ new gigafactory marks a major development in the carbon capture industry. As countries race to meet climate goals, scalable solutions like Svante’s are becoming essential. The Burnaby plant will focus on innovation, teamwork, and quick production. It will be vital in cutting industrial emissions.

By combining advanced materials with modern manufacturing, Svante is helping to make carbon capture more practical and affordable. Its efforts contribute to a growing movement to reduce global emissions and move toward a cleaner, more sustainable economy.

The post Svante Opens World’s First Gigafactory for Carbon Capture in Canada appeared first on Carbon Credits.

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How EV Adoption is Reshaping Global Oil Demand: IEA’s 2025 Outlook and 2030 Forecast

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EV

For decades, oil was the backbone of global transport. It powered nearly every vehicle, pushing oil demand ever higher. Infrastructure significantly grew around extraction, refining, and distribution. But with mounting concerns over emissions and climate change, the search for cleaner alternatives gained momentum. Electric vehicles (EVs) have emerged as a game changer in this shift.

IEA recently published its Global EV Outlook 2025, where it has predicted,

  • By 2030, EVs are set to replace more than 5 million barrels of oil per day (mb/d) globally, with China’s expanding EV fleet making up half of that impact.

Let’s deep dive into this report and understand how the rise of EVs is impacting global oil demand.

The Rise of EVs and Its Impact on Global Oil Demand

By the end of 2024, the global electric car fleet reached nearly 58 million, more than triple the number in 2021. These EVs now make up about 4% of the global passenger car fleet.

The trend is strongest in China, where roughly 1 in 10 cars is electric. In Europe, the ratio is 1 in 20, but growing fast.

The UK, the second-largest car market in Europe, saw EVs take nearly 30% of new car sales in 2024. This rise was driven by the new Vehicle Emissions Trading Scheme, which required 22% of new car registrations to be battery electric or hydrogen fuel cell models.

With flexible credit borrowing allowed, manufacturers achieved nearly 20% EV sales. Norway led with near-total electrification. 88% of new cars sold were fully electric, and another 3% were plug-in hybrids.

As a result, Norway’s oil demand from the road fell 12% from 2021 to 2024. Denmark also saw a big jump, with EVs reaching 56% of new car sales in 2024 and nearly 100,000 units sold.

Meanwhile, Denmark is also seeing strong progress. In the latest figures, the share of electric cars jumped by 10 percentage points, reaching 56%, with nearly 100,000 EVs sold.

EV sales
Source: IEA

Oil Demand Drops as EV Fleet Grows Rapidly

Surge in EVs on roads came heavy on the oil industry. IEA says that electric vehicles slashed oil demand by over 1.3 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2024.

It was a steep 30% jump from 2023, and the present figures are nearly equal to all the oil Japan currently uses for transportation.

Passenger cars and small vans classified as light-duty vehicles (LDVs) drive most of this shift. Today, they account for 80% of the oil displaced by EVs. By 2030, their share will slightly drop to 77% as electric trucks and buses gain traction.

This is because of the rapidly evolving batteries and stronger charging infrastructure, these heavy-duty vehicles will likely displace nearly 1 mb/d of oil within the decade.

EVs Cut Costs and Boost Energy Security

IEA analysts highlighted that even if global oil prices fall to $40 per barrel, EVs remain cost-effective especially with home charging. This way drivers can continue saving money by switching to electric vehicles.

In China, fast public charging costs about twice as much as charging at home. Yet, EVs still offer better fuel savings than gas-powered cars. As more people choose EVs, countries reduce their oil use and become less vulnerable to price shocks. This shift not only saves money but also strengthens national energy security.

Strong Policies Keep EV Adoption on Track

Although trade tensions, slow economic growth, and oil price drops may hurt overall car sales, these issues affect the market size more than the EV share. In China, steady government support and affordable EV prices continue to drive sales forward.

Meanwhile, in Europe, even though EVs cost more than traditional cars, long-term policies and past crisis responses help keep the market moving.

Additionally, Norway planned to raise taxes on traditional internal combustion engine (ICE) cars and plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) from April. This was meant to boost EV sales and help the country reach its goal of 100% zero-emission car sales by the end of 2025.

The 2025 EV outlook shows strong momentum. Despite economic uncertainty, EVs continue to grow thanks to smart policies, lower battery costs, and better infrastructure. As countries push for cleaner transportation, EVs are helping the world move toward a more sustainable, low-carbon future.

With over 58 million electric cars already on the road by the end of 2024—and more to come—the transition is well underway. This shift not only transforms the oil market but also puts the world on a clearer, more energy-secure path forward.

Global Oil Demand: What the Forecasts Say

We found the latest oil demand forecast in the International Energy Forum’s monthly comparative analysis of the oil market report. It highlights the following:

OPEC

OPEC expects oil demand to grow by around 1.3 million barrels per day (mb/d) in both 2025 and 2026. Almost all this growth will come from non-OECD countries, where demand is expected to rise by 1.2 mb/d each year. In contrast, OECD countries will see only a small increase of 0.1 mb/d annually.

EIA

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) recently increased its 2025 forecast by 0.1 mb/d compared to last month. It now expects demand to rise by 1.0 mb/d next year. However, this is 0.4 mb/d lower than the estimate made in January 2025. For 2026, the EIA sees demand rising more slowly, by 0.9 mb/d.

IEA

The IEA has a more cautious view. It expects global oil demand to grow by 0.7 mb/d in 2025, even though OECD demand may fall by about 120,000 barrels per day. For 2026, the IEA sees demand increasing by 0.8 mb/d. According to its latest data, average yearly demand growth between 2022 and 2024 was just 0.3 mb/d.

oil demand
Source: IEF

To simplify it, the gap between the highest and lowest global oil demand forecasts is 0.6 mb/d for 2025 and 0.5 mb/d for 2026. These differences highlight the uncertainty that still surrounds future oil demand.

Furthermore, as electric vehicles gain popularity, governments are starting to feel the financial impact. Fuel taxes, which have been a key source of public funding for roads and transport, are shrinking. In 2022 alone, the global shift to EVs resulted in an estimated $9 billion drop in fuel tax revenues.

The post How EV Adoption is Reshaping Global Oil Demand: IEA’s 2025 Outlook and 2030 Forecast appeared first on Carbon Credits.

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