Recently, you may have heard about something called “El Niño.” But what exactly is El Niño and its sibling “La Niña”? Why do these terms seem to emerge from the depths of the scientific community and drop into popular vocabulary every few years? And how are they connected to extreme weather and our ocean?
What Are El Niño and La Niña?
El Niño and La Niña are part of a natural climate pattern in the tropical Pacific called the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, or ENSO. These two phases are different sides of the same coin, creating equally extreme shifts in temperature and air pressure.
El Niño occurs when surface water in the equatorial Pacific becomes warmer than average and easterly winds weaken. La Niña is the opposite: cooler-than-normal sea surface temperatures and stronger easterly winds. ENSO cycles can last up to seven years. El Niño and La Niña significantly impact weather patterns in all corners of the globe, often leading to more extreme weather, storm frequency and intensity.
A strong El Niño can cause flooding in some regions and drought, heat waves and wildfires in others. It often causes crop losses, coral bleaching and marine die-offs due to unusually warm ocean temperatures. El Niño tends to suppress Atlantic hurricane activity, though it increases the risk of heavy precipitation and harm to fisheries elsewhere. In the Northern Hemisphere, El Niño typically builds between March and June, peaks in December, and weakens by February.
La Niña, by contrast, often fuels an active Atlantic hurricane season and increases tornado frequency across the southern United States. Like El Niño, it builds in spring and peaks around December.
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Predicting ENSO
In 1923, the physicist Sir Gilbert Walker discovered the “Southern Oscillation,” or large-scale changes in sea level pressure across the tropical Pacific. However, it wasn’t until the late 1960s that the metorologist Jacob Bjerknes found that the changes in the ocean and the atmosphere were connected, and the hybrid term “ENSO” was born. In 1974, researchers at Oregon State University attempted to predict ENSO for the first time.
Modeling has greatly advanced since the early days. Today, scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) issue regular predictions about ENSO, which are now more accurate than ever.
NOAA gives a one-in-four chance that an El Niño could reach “very strong” intensity later in 2026, qualifying it as a “super El Niño.” This threshold has been crossed only a handful of times in recorded history, each triggering droughts, floods and record temperatures across multiple continents. NOAA’s data and models deliver life-saving early warning forecasts, like that of the predicted super El Niño, which allow communities to better prepare for and respond to extreme weather events.

Take Action
Every American, regardless of where they live, depends on NOAA’s scientists and professionals, whose work spans from the ocean floor to the far reaches of space. Unfortunately, NOAA is under threat. The Trump administration has proposed billions of dollars in cuts to the agency, which could weaken weather forecasting, disrupt fisheries management and stall critical ocean research, putting American lives and global scientific leadership at risk.
Ocean Conservancy is committed to working with NOAA to keep the public informed on climate and ocean science. We all benefit from a healthier ocean, and investing in research is the most effective way to restore ocean health and reduce the impact of severe weather events caused by El Niño and La Niña. Our ocean is not partisan, and protecting it requires all hands on deck and all sides of the aisle. Now, it’s more important than ever to demand that members of Congress prioritize our ocean. Add your name now.
The post Do You Know the Difference Between El Niño and La Niña? appeared first on Ocean Conservancy.
Ocean Acidification
What can PIES tell us about the current system?
By Tina Hans (GEOMAR)
One main objective of the cruise is to investigate the large-scale ocean currents in the tropical Atlantic. For that purpose, we are maintaining several long-term observatories at the seafloor and in the water column. Additional to the moorings which have been described in the previous blog “Keeping the record alive”, we deployed and recovered close to the Brazilian coast so-called PIES. They have – as some might say unfortunately – nothing to do with pastries but are oceanographic instruments that measure the pressure at the seafloor as well as the time an acoustic signal takes to travel from the instrument to surface, where the signal is reflected, and back. We deployed six of those instruments across the continental shelf off Brazil at depth ranging from 150 metres to 3000 metres. These deployments are the result of a collaboration with the University of Bremen. We also successfully recovered one PIES that spent just over three years at the seafloor at a depth of 500 metres. With the data of the recovered PIES, we could extend our time series of seafloor pressure measurements at 500 metres depth. This time series, which goes back until 2013, spans now 13 years.

This still leaves the question of what the pressure at the seafloor can tell us about ocean currents. To answer this, one needs to know that the ocean dynamics are largely governed by a balance of two physical forces: the pressure gradient force and the Coriolis force. Essentially, when water ‘piles up’ somewhere, a current is created which attempts to even out the differences, and the direction of this current is deflected due to the Earth’s rotation. This force balance can also be used to directly relate the difference in pressure between two locations to the mean velocity in between these locations. We make use of this relation by measuring the seafloor pressure not just off Brazil but also off Angola at a similar latitude. With the combination of these measurements, we can calculate the mean north-/southward velocities across the Atlantic between Brazil and Angola. From this velocity we can then derive the strength of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC).
However, there is one caveat: the pressure sensors are drifting over time. This makes it impossible to make statements about long-term trends, but we can still make statements about the seasonal to interannual variability of the AMOC. Therefore, the measurements of the PIES can be used to better understand the large-scale currents in the tropical Atlantic. In a next step, we are now using these measurements to better understand the linkage of the AMOC to climate variability in the tropics.

Ocean Acidification
Cloud: The Pearl on the Crown
By Qi-Fan Wu (Niels Bohr Institutet, University of Copenhagen)
During our journey, we saw many beautiful cloud patterns while looking outside the METEOR! Even though people do not always pay attention to them, clouds are among the most visible elements of the sky and naturally form part of our everyday background. And when we sailed away from the coastal region of Recife to the open ocean, the sky seemed to open up, allowing clouds to reveal their full variety and structure.
In climate modelling, clouds are one of the biggest sources of uncertainty. There is a famous saying in mathematics: “Mathematics is the queen of the sciences, number theory is the crown of mathematics, and the Goldbach Conjecture is the pearl on the crown.” The same idea can be applied to the study of clouds in Earth science. There is still no general macroscopic theory of clouds. Cloud physics is an absolutely fascinating topic, as it combines turbulence, stochastic processes, chemicals in the air, multiscale interactions within the Earth–atmosphere system, and a close connection to our daily weather.
In this blog entry, we would like to share some lovely photos of cloud patterns that we took on METEOR. Instead of serious systematic investigations, we focus on the basic cloud physics behind some typical cloud phenomena shown in these photos. These examples might provide something interesting to think about during our leisure time, even after returning to land. If nature is an artist, clouds are among its finest masterpieces, shaped by physical laws and stochastic processes.
What are clouds, and what is inside them? Clouds are made of many liquid water droplets and ice crystals inside the boundaries of the cloud. They are mostly air, with the many particles dispersed widely and more or less randomly throughout the cloud interiors [a]. The individual particles that make up a cloud are very, very small and not generally visible to the human eye.
When we look up from our research vessel METEOR and observe clouds, we first see their macroscopic structure: their overall shape, height, thickness, and organization across the sky. Broad, layered clouds often form through slow, large-scale ascent, while towering clouds with visible turrets reflect rapid rising motion in smaller air parcels. These visible forms are continuously shaped by moisture supply, cooling, turbulence, mixing with drier air, and precipitation, linking the large-scale atmospheric flow to the clouds we observe [a,b].
After leaving Recife, we entered a region typically influenced by the southeast trade winds of the tropical South Atlantic, where a vertically layered atmosphere, warm ocean conditions, and wind-driven mixing often promote a turbulent marine boundary layer. In Figure 1, the sky shows a layered cloudscape ranging from thin, high cirrostratus and altocumulus clouds to low cumulus and towering cumulonimbus clouds. These different forms reflect how the atmosphere organizes moisture, cooling, and vertical motion: broad layers are associated with gradual ascent, while the rising turrets of cumulus and cumulonimbus reveal stronger localized updrafts. Together, they illustrate the visible macroscopic structure of clouds, shaped by atmospheric motion and the microphysical processes occurring within them.
It should be noted that, in general, atmospheric temperature in the troposphere decreases with increasing altitude. Over the subtropical oceans, however, this is not the case. A relatively thin temperature-inversion layer lies above the subtropical marine boundary layer, within which temperature increases with height and the atmosphere is highly stable (Figure 2). Cloud occurrence above the marine boundary layer is relatively low in this region. The base of the trade-wind inversion is typically located at an altitude of approximately 1–2 km, separating the moist lower layer from the dry free troposphere [c].

This large-scale thermodynamic structure provides the environmental conditions under which clouds form and evolve. At the microscopic scale, however, clouds consist of particles: liquid water droplets, ice crystals, or a mixture of both. Clouds composed entirely of liquid droplets are commonly referred to as “warm clouds”, whereas clouds containing ice particles are classified as “cold clouds”. When liquid droplets and ice crystals coexist, the cloud is described as a mixed-phase cloud. However, the distinction between “warm” and “cold” clouds hinge on the phase of the particles, not on the temperature. The warm/cold distinction depends on the microphysical phase of the particles inside the cloud, which a normal naked eye observation cannot resolve.
Warm clouds consist of liquid water droplets spanning a range of sizes, from small haze droplets and cloud condensation nuclei to cloud droplets, drizzle drops, and raindrops (Figure 3). Cloud droplets typically form when water vapour condenses onto cloud condensation nuclei. Rainfall develops when some droplets grow much larger: larger droplets fall faster, collide with smaller droplets, and collect them. As a result, many small cloud droplets can combine to form fewer, larger drizzle drops and eventually raindrops [a]. This process approximately conserves the total liquid-water mass within the cloud, while transferring water from numerous small droplets to a much smaller number of large drops that are heavy enough to fall as rain.

Cold clouds contain ice particles, either alone or together with supercooled liquid water droplets [a]. Unlike liquid droplets, which are nearly spherical because of surface tension, ice particles can develop a wide range of crystalline shapes, including plates, columns, needles, dendrites, and aggregates (Figure 4). Their shape depends mainly on temperature and ice supersaturation during growth by water-vapour deposition. As ice crystals become large enough to fall, they may collide and stick together to form snow aggregates, or collect supercooled droplets that freeze on contact, a process known as riming. The regular hexagonal structure of ice crystals can also produce optical phenomena such as halos, which form when sunlight is refracted or reflected by suitably oriented ice crystals in high-level clouds as shown in Figure 3. In mixed-phase clouds, uplift supports the growth of ice crystals at the expense of supercooled droplets. Once sufficiently large, the ice precipitates and may melt into rain or drizzle while falling through the melting layer (Figure 3).

When we approached the equator, we saw many cumulus clouds with remarkably flat bases, marking the lifting condensation level where warm, moist air rising from the ocean cooled to its dew point and condensed into droplets. Similar temperature/humidity across an area leads to clouds sharing flat bases. Their uneven, towering tops reflected continued turbulence and convection above this level, revealing the active vertical mixing of the tropical atmosphere (Figure 5). As moist tropical air rises toward the cold-point tropopause, it encounters extremely low temperatures. When an air mass reaches a local temperature minimum, water vapour can freeze into very thin cirrus clouds (Figure 6).


After crossing the equator, we entered the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), a band of heavy rainfall extending across the tropical Atlantic. Cloud organization within and around the ITCZ varies markedly from day to day. Extensive low-level stratocumulus clouds can also occur in the surrounding region, acting like a blanket that reduces the amount of incoming solar radiation reaching the ocean surface (Figure 7).

As we continued northward on our way home, we moved closer to the continent and witnessed some spectacular roll clouds, a very rare meteorological phenomenon. This type of cloud is known as “Morning Glory,” although evening land breezes can also produce roll clouds. The roll cloud is not attached to other clouds. associated with a solitary wave, a wave that has a single crest and moves without changing speed or shape.
As we were relatively close to the shoreline of West Africa, these roll clouds may have been produced by internal gravity waves propagating along a stable marine boundary layer [d]. The collision or sudden advance of a sea breeze or cold front can disturb the stable air layer near the surface, generating an atmospheric bore (a train of internal gravity waves). Such waves consist of alternating regions of upward and downward motion. Along the crest of the wave, moist air is lifted and cools to saturation, forming clouds, while behind the crest the air descends and warms, causing the cloud to evaporate. Because this cycle of ascent and descent extends along a long line of low-level convergence, cloud is continuously generated at the leading edge and dissipated at the trailing edge, maintaining a long, coherent band (Figure 8).

I think observing and thinking about clouds can be a nice hobby for enjoying the beauty of nature. Cloud processes are stochastic because nucleation and droplet collection do not occur at exactly the same time for every particle, even under the same environmental conditions [a]. Instead, freezing, condensation, and coalescence depend on chance microscopic events, so only some droplets become “lucky” and grow or freeze earlier than others. Perhaps cloud viewing could also give us good food for thought. After all, many cloud-related problems in climate modeling remain among the most beautiful mysteries in climate science.

Enjoy ~
References:
[a] Lamb D, Verlinde J. Physics and Chemistry of Clouds. Cambridge University Press; 2011.
[b] Levizzani, V., Kidd, C. (2025). Cloud Physics. In: Precipitation. Geophysics and Environmental Physics. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-97096-2_3
[c] Shang-Ping Xie. Subtropical climate: Trade winds and low clouds. In: Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean Dynamics. Elsevier; 2024. p. 139–163. doi:10.1016/B978-0-323-95490-7.00006-0.
[d] The Morning Glory and related phenomena. https://www.meteo.physik.uni-muenchen.de/~roger/AustralianProjects/TheMorningGlory/TheMorningGlory.html
Ocean Acidification
Keeping the Record Alive: Long-Term Ocean Observations in the Tropical Atlantic
By Naomi Krauzig (GEOMAR)
One of the most rewarding aspects of M219 has been contributing to the maintenance of the long-term GEOMAR mooring arrays that quietly monitor the tropical Atlantic year after year.
While CTD/LADCP casts and other shipboard measurements provide invaluable snapshots of the ocean, these anchored instruments provide something that cannot be obtained otherwise: continuous observations spanning minutes, days, seasons, years, and even decades. As an observational oceanographer, it is difficult not to appreciate the value of these datasets. They form the foundation for understanding ocean variability in regions that are critical for Atlantic climate variability and allow us to detect and quantify long-term changes that would otherwise remain hidden within the ocean’s natural variability.
Our first major operations took place off the Brazilian coast at 11°S, where the K1 to K4 moorings form part of a long-term observing system monitoring the western boundary current system and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Within just a few days, the four deep-sea moorings were successfully recovered, assessed, serviced, and redeployed.


Every recovery felt a bit like opening a treasure chest. After spending a year or more beneath the ocean surface, these instruments returned carrying an invaluable record of currents, temperature, salinity, oxygen, and other key ocean properties. It was incredibly rewarding to see how well they had performed. Nearly all instruments operated successfully throughout the entire deployment period, delivering high-quality datasets with remarkably few gaps.
From Brazil, we continued north to the equator at 23°W, home to another key long-term mooring at exactly 0°N. Since 2006, this mooring has been monitoring the Equatorial Undercurrent and the deep equatorial circulation from the surface to nearly 4,000 m depth. Its successful recovery and redeployment mean that this unique 20-year time series will continue, helping us better understand how the tropical Atlantic influences climate, oxygen and nutrient transport, and marine ecosystems across the basin.
Our final mooring destination brought us to the Cape Verde Ocean Observatory (CVOO), one of the flagship long-term ocean observatories in the eastern tropical Atlantic. Here, physical, biogeochemical, and ecological observations come together to track how the ocean stores heat and carbon and how marine ecosystems respond to environmental change. Like the moorings at 11°S and the equator, the value of CVOO lies not in a single measurement, but in the continuity of the multi-decadal record.



For me, one of the most memorable aspects was seeing how many people contributed to the success of the mooring operations. Careful planning laid the foundation, while having a dedicated person keeping track of every step ensured that everything ran smoothly (kudos to Anna Christina Hans, aka Tina!). On deck, crew, technicians, and scientists worked together like a well-oiled machine, stepping in where needed and solving problems on the fly.
The teamwork extended all the way back home to GEOMAR. Thanks to Rebecca Hummels’ mooring toolbox, data from several instruments could already be processed and checked while parts of the moorings were still in the water, providing an early look at the quality of the observations. On top of that, mooring experts were available around the clock to provide information, advice, and troubleshooting whenever needed. I believe the high success rate of the recoveries and redeployments is a testament to the experience, teamwork, and dedication of everyone involved.

With the major milestone of the successful mooring work behind us, another exciting operation was still ahead. Waiting in Mindelo was a brand-new surface buoy, ready to begin its own contribution to these invaluable long-term observations. Stay tuned to learn more about that deployment in a future blog post.
Keeping the Record Alive: Long-Term Ocean Observations in the Tropical Atlantic
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