2024年5月，尽管用电需求持续增长，清洁能源发电量占到中国全国总发电量的44%，创下历史新高；燃煤发电量占比降至53%，达到历史低点。
基于官方数据和其他数据，Carbon Brief 的新分析揭示了煤炭在能源结构中占比下降的真实程度。
2023年5月，煤炭在中国发电量中所占比例为60%。一年后，这一数字下降了7个百分点。
该分析揭示的其他关键信息包括：
- 国家统计局按发电方式分列的月度发电量数据现在对风能和太阳能发电量计入非常有局限性。例如，它未纳入“分布式”屋顶光伏和较小的集中式太阳能发电站，因此只能捕捉到约一半的太阳能发电量。
- 国家统计局的月度总发电量为718太瓦时（TWh），而国家能源局报告提出月度电力需求为775太瓦时，两者的差距显著。实际上，由于发电厂和电网损耗，发电量肯定应高于需求量。
- 媒体报道曾猜测，创纪录的新增可再生能源装机容量会在5月份触及电网上限，但新数据显示情况并非如此。
- 2024年5月，中国电力需求同比增长49太瓦时（7.2%）。
- 与此同时，清洁能源发电量创纪录地增长了78太瓦时，其中太阳能发电量创纪录地增长了41太瓦时（78%），水力发电量从早些时候干旱造成的低点回升了34太瓦时（39%），风力发电量小幅增长了4太瓦时（5%）。
- 随着清洁能源的增长超过电力需求增长，化石燃料发电量被迫回落，出现了自2019年新冠大流行以来最大的月度降幅。天然气发电量下降了4太瓦时（16%），燃煤发电量下降了16太瓦时（4%）。
- 化石燃料发电量的下降意味着电力行业的CO2排放量下降了3.6%，而电力行业的CO2排放量约占中国温室气体排放总量的五分之二，是近年来排放增长的主要来源。
从2024年3月开始，中国化石燃料和水泥行业的CO2排放量由增变减。新的研究结果表明，这一趋势仍在继续。
如果目前风能和太阳能的快速部署得以继续，那么中国的CO2排放量很可能会继续下降，从而使2023年成为中国碳达峰的一年。
月度数据差异
国家统计局每月都会公布中国按发电方式分列的发电量数据。2024年5月的数据是在近一个月前的6月中旬公布，并被广泛报道。
然而，这些数据的局限性越来越大，因为其中不包括“分布式”光伏电站，如家庭和企业屋顶上安装的光伏系统。本文的分析表明，这使得大约一半的太阳能发电总量被遗漏。
如果仔细审视用电量，国家统计局发电量数据不完整这一事实显而易见：国家能源局报告的5月份用电量为775太瓦时，而国家统计局报告的发电量仅为718太瓦时。实际上，由于发电厂和输电过程中的损耗，发电量肯定远远大于用电量。
国家统计局报告的太阳能和风能发电量似乎很少，这引起了人们的困惑，并导致有报道声称中国的风能和太阳能发电表现不佳。
中电联收集的“利用率”数据可跟踪风能和太阳能发电的表现，显示相对于最大潜力的实际出力。这些数据通常包含在国家能源局发布的月度统计数据中。
国家能源局因在5月份发布的数据中略过了利用率，这导致彭博社和路透社猜测背后原因可能是风能和太阳能数据不佳。这一猜测在中电联直接提供其数据后基本被证明不成立，因为太阳能发电利用率大幅上升；风能利用率虽然下降，但在正常的年度变化范围内。
另一个数据集追踪了由于电网灵活性低而浪费的太阳能和风能发电量的比例，结果显示两者分别小幅增长了0.8和1.7个百分点。这对电厂运营者来说是个问题，但该升幅远未达到会显著影响利用率的程度——消纳率的年际变化幅度通常超过5%。
现在有足够的数据来破解国家统计局发电数据的局限性，并描绘出中国5月份发电结构的全貌。
首先值得一提的是，国家统计局的数据是以30天为一个月进行归一化处理的，这造成了部分数据不匹配。本文剩余部分使用归一化后的30天数据。
除了使用国家统计局数据，还可根据报告的装机容量和利用率来估算太阳能和风能发电量。通过将这些估计值与其他技术的报告发电量相结合，得出总发电量为783太瓦时，同比增长8%。
报告的750太瓦时用电量（按30天为一个月进行归一化）与估计的783太瓦时发电量相符，另有4.2%的差异是由于传输损耗造成的。
目前尚无输电损耗的月度数据，但2023年的平均值为4.5%，与报告的用电量和预估发电量之间的差距非常吻合。
创纪录的结果
综合各种数据可以看出，2024年5月太阳能发电量创纪录地增长了78%，远高于不完整的国家统计局数据中29%的同比增幅。
太阳能发电装机容量增加52%至691吉瓦（gigawatt），产能利用率从16%提高到19%，太阳能发电量从2023年5月的53太瓦时增至2024年5月的94太瓦时，增加了41太瓦时，创下中国各发电方式发电量中最大的增幅。
水电发电量的增幅位居第二，虽然发电量仅增长了1%，但利用率却从31%跃升至41%，因为该行业正从2022年至2023年创纪录的干旱中恢复过来。这使得水电发电量增加了39%（34太瓦时），达到115太瓦时。
风电装机大幅增长了21%，但其利用率却有所下降，这可能是由于风力条件逐月变化所致。因此，发电量的增幅相对较小，仅为5%（4太瓦时），达到83太瓦时。核电和生物质发电的发电量也有小幅增长，但核电站的利用率从87%下降到85%。
如下图所示，清洁能源发电量总计增长了78太瓦时。这足以超过49太瓦时的需求增长。
因此，尽管燃气发电装机增加了9%，但发电量却大幅下降16%，利用率急剧下降了24%。燃煤发电装机增加了3%，但发电量却下降了3.7%，平均利用率下降了7%。需求下降可能会抑制过去两年火热的对新建煤炭产能的投资。
燃煤和燃气发电量的变化，加之燃煤电厂热耗率的轻微下降，意味着电力行业的CO2排放量下降了3.6%。
在发电量发生上述变化后，中国的发电结构在2024年5月已大幅减少了对化石燃料的依赖。如下图所示，燃煤发电份额从去年同期的60%降至53%，是有记录以来的最低份额。
与此同时，太阳能发电占比从去年同期的7%上升到12%，创历史最高纪录。其余为风电（11%）、水电（15%）、核电（5%）、天然气发电（3%）和生物质发电（2%）。
非化石能源的总体份额达到创纪录的44%，间歇性可再生能源（太阳能和风能）的比例也创下新高，达到23%。
如上图所示，尽管需求不断增长，但太阳能和风能在中国电力结构中的份额正在迅速增加。2016年5月，它们仅占总量的7%。
与此同时，2024年5月，清洁能源发电装机继续强劲增长，新增太阳能发电装机19吉瓦 ，风电3吉瓦 ，核电1.2吉瓦。
在2024年的前五个月，中国新增了约79吉瓦的太阳能和20吉瓦的风能。如下图所示，这两个新增发电装机数字比去年分别增长了29%和21%，而去年的数字已经创下历史新高。
就太阳能发电具体而言，2024年5月的月新增装机高于4月，与2023年5月相比也有同比增长。
太阳能发电量的快速增长表明，太阳能产能的激增正在提供新的电力供应，其规模足以满足中国大部分的需求增长。
这进一步印证了中国的CO2排放量正处于结构性下降时期的观点。
如果清洁能源的新增装机保持在2023年和2024年初的水平，那么CO2排放量可能会持续下降，这将确定2023年是中国实现碳达峰的一年。
由于中国将在明年初宣布新的气候目标，政府对清洁能源增长的雄心水平仍有待观察。
关于数据
风能和太阳能发电量，以及按燃料划分的火电发电量系通过将每月末的发电装机乘月利用率计算得出，数据来自万得金融终端提供的中电联报告数据。
火电、水电和核电的总发电量来源于国家统计局的月度发布数据。由于无法获得生物质发电的月度利用率数据，因此采用2023年的年平均利用率52%。
发电产生的碳排放量估算基于中国最新的2018年国家温室气体排放清单中的排放因子，以及国家能源局公布的燃煤电厂月平均热耗率，并假设燃气电厂平均热耗率为50%。
The post 分析：中国清洁能源发展使五月燃煤发电份额降至53%的历史低点 appeared first on Carbon Brief.
The British government has notified the UN’s Green Climate Fund (GCF) that it will cut the contribution it pledged for 2024-2027 in half, a GCF spokesperson told Climate Home News.
The reduction, which is part of a wider UK shift from development aid to military spending, will restrict the GCF’s ability to fund projects that help developing countries cut emissions and adapt to climate change.
Harjeet Singh, director of the Satat Sampada Climate Foundation, called the UK’s decision “moral bankruptcy”, noting that Britain has a historical responsibility for climate change “as a nation built on fossil-fuelled industrialisation”.
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After US retreat, countries clash over who should make up Green Climate Fund shortfall
At this week’s board meeting, Germany and Sweden encouraged wealthier developing nations to step up – an idea rejected by Saudi Arabia -
UK cuts support for climate action abroad to fund military instead
The UK’s foreign minister said the cuts to the aid budget would “deliver the biggest increase in defence spending since the Cold War”
Liane Schalatek, who observes GCF board meetings for the Heinrich Böll Foundation, said the UK’s move was “an unfortunate signal”, especially as it comes just before the GCF launches its next fundraising round.
She noted that the UK has been the biggest contributor to the GCF, and “with the UK halving – where doubling would be needed – this will give permission to others to do the same”.
There are fears that other countries could follow suit as governments in Europe trim their aid budgets, while the US has refused to deliver any further money under climate change-sceptic President Donald Trump and has also given up its seat on the GCF board.
The GCF was established in 2010, and has since funded over $15 billion of climate projects across the developing world. Its financing comes mainly from developed countries pledging money in regular replenishment rounds.
During the last GCF replenishment round in 2023, the UK’s previous Conservative government promised £1.622 billion ($2.18 billion) for the 2024-27 period, with then development minister Andrew Mitchell saying the pledge “underlines our sustained commitment to tackling climate change”.
But, as of March 2026, the UK had only handed over £655 million ($885 million) of that pledge, which is its third to the fund, and has now informed the GCF it will only deliver £815 million ($1.1 billion). The GCF’s total funding for the 2024-2027 period is $10.149 billion.
The UK’s Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office has been contacted for comment.
Approved projects unaffected
A GCF spokesperson told Climate Home News that all current projects under implementation have guaranteed funding while the GCF is assessing what the cuts mean for the projects that are being prepared and are expected to come before the GCF board in 2026 and 2027.
“Our focus will continue to be delivering the greatest impact with the investments we make, working with the largest network of partners in the financial architecture and mobilizing the greatest amount of resources to fulfill GCF’s critical and unique mandate,” the spokesperson said.
Scientists warn El Niño could intensify climate extremes in 2026
In a separate email to GCF board members, seen by Climate Home News, the GCF’s executive director Mafalda Duarte warned that the cuts are “expected to have a material impact” on the fund’s work over the next two years.
Duarte said the cuts were part of the UK wider decision to reduce international development spending “and invest more in addressing growing security threats”.
Development to military
Announcing this decision in March, UK foreign minister Yvette Cooper said the cuts were a “hugely difficult decision” and “not ideological”, but necessary “to deliver the biggest increase in defence spending since the Cold War”. The US has been pressuring countries in the NATO alliance to boost military budgets as conflict surges around the world, from Ukraine to the Middle East.
Cooper reiterated Labour’s commitment to restore overseas development spending to 0.7% of gross national income (GNI) “when fiscal circumstances allow”, but did not provide a timeline when pressed by an opposition member of parliament. UK aid was reduced from 0.7% to 0.5% of GNI by the previous Conservative government in 2021, and is now set to fall further to 0.3%.
While the UK government has claimed it is only cutting international climate finance by around 13% compared to the previous government’s level of spending, analysis by Carbon Brief suggests that the real figure is close to 50% once inflation and accounting changes are considered.
The leadership of the UK is currently in doubt with several ministers from the ruling Labour Party calling on Prime Minister Keir Starmer to resign, with a challenge to his leadership of the party and country expected after poor local election results for Labour.
The post UK halves Green Climate Fund contribution, as it spends more on security appeared first on Climate Home News.
UK halves Green Climate Fund contribution, as it spends more on security
The Santa Marta summit moved beyond the blockages in the UN climate process, building a coalition of around 60 countries that want to tackle a shift away from fossil fuels. The host countries said the outcomes would feed into the voluntary roadmap on the energy transition being put together by COP30 hosts Brazil, which is due to be presented before COP31.
June’s mid-year climate talks in Bonn, followed by London Climate Action Week, will be key moments to reflect on the progress so far and work out ways to bring the strands closer together. How might that happen while fossil fuels remain the elephant in the UNFCCC room and there’s no formal place for a roadmap on the agenda?
Tune in to hear our expert reporters discussing this and other key topics set to headline at the Bonn session, both in the negotiations and on the sidelines! Questions and comments will be welcome from participants and used to inform our future coverage.
Note: This event is exclusively for free essential users and paid subscribers of Climate Home News. If you’re not yet signed up, you can join us by clicking the “Subscribe Now” button.
The post Webinar: From Santa Marta to Bonn – where next for the fossil fuel transition? appeared first on Climate Home News.
Webinar: From Santa Marta to Bonn – where next for the fossil fuel transition?
Climate Change
China Briefing 30 April 2026: Fossil fuel ‘strict controls’ | El Niño approaches | Why cleantech exports have surged
Welcome to Carbon Brief’s China Briefing.
China Briefing handpicks and explains the most important climate and energy stories from China over the past fortnight. Subscribe for free here.
Key developments
New documents ramp up pressure on coal
‘STRICTLY CONTROL’ FOSSIL FUELS: On 22 April, China issued a set of “guiding opinions” on energy conservation and carbon reduction that urged local governments to “strictly control fossil-fuel consumption”, according to the text published by state news agency Xinhua. Hu Min, director and co-founder of the the Beijing-based Institute for Global Decarbonization Progress, said in comments to Carbon Brief that the document was a clear signal of China’s political leaders’ desire to reduce the country’s coal usage and a “way to move things forward” until more specific policies are published. Government officials noted that the opinions are of “great significance for building broader and stronger consensus across society”, reported information platform Tanpaifang.
INCREASED OVERSIGHT: The next day, the government announced new evaluation criteria for judging provinces on their efforts to meet China’s climate goals, including on raising “clean-energy consumption” and limiting “use of coal and oil”, reported Bloomberg. The 14 indicators underscore China’s “key priorities” and encourage broader carbon reduction efforts, said energy news outlet China Energy Net. They build on China’s existing inspection system to create a “much stronger accountability and compliance system”, Qin Qi, China analyst at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, told Carbon Brief. For more detail see Carbon Brief’s Q&A on what the two policies mean for China’s energy transition.
‘RARE’ SIGNAL: Both documents were issued by the highest levels of the nation’s political system, which is “extremely rare” and “reflects the strategic importance” of China’s climate goals, Wu Hongjie, deputy secretary-general of the China Carbon Neutrality 50 Forum, told Jiemian News. In a comment article for finance news outlet Caixin, Chen Lihao – a member of the Jiusan Society, environment minister Huang’s political party – said the two documents “form the institutional foundation” for China’s “full-scale transition” to a “dual control of carbon” system.
Downpours in south China
‘RECORD-BREAKING’ RAIN: Heavy rainfall is hitting central and southern China, with Hunan, Guizhou and Jiangxi provinces reporting record-breaking levels of precipitation last week, reported the Communist party-affiliated People’s Daily. It added that the government is ramping up “flood control” measures in response. On 26-27 April, one part of Guangxi province received as much as 14cm of rain per hour, reported the state-supporting newspaper Global Times. Meanwhile, Chinese vice-premier Liu Guozhong met with the World Meteorological Organization secretary-general Celeste Saulo to discuss cooperation on global “meteorological governance”, said state news agency Xinhua, with the discussion touching on early warning systems and disaster relief.
EL NIÑO RISK: Officials at China’s National Climate Center (NCC) have said that an El Niño weather pattern is “likely to set in around May” and “intensify during the summer and autumn”, said China Daily. The state-run newspaper also quoted NCC chief forecaster Chen Lijuan saying it was “premature” to conclude that the El Niño could be at its strongest in 140 years, or that it could lead to record-breaking heat, although he added that the risks of such weather are “clearly increasing”. Wang Yaqi, a senior engineer at NCC, noted that the phenomenon “could hit hydropower-dependent regions hard, pushing them to burn more fossil fuels”, according to the Hong Kong-based South China Morning Post.
Solar capacity growth slows
CLEAN CAPACITY: China’s clean-energy grid capacity now exceeds 2,400 gigawatts (GW), as of March 2026, or 60% of the total power mix, said state broadcaster CGTN in coverage of comments from energy officials at a press conference. It added that, within this, total wind and solar capacity reached 1,900GW. Energy news outlet International Energy Net cited the officials saying that China’s operational capacity for “green hydrogen” stands at 250,000 tonnes, with another 900,000 tonnes under construction.
SOLAR SLOWS: However, a data release showed that China added 41GW of new solar capacity in the first three months of 2026, reported BJX News, down from 60GW of new capacity in January-March 2025. Bloomberg noted that new solar capacity additions “slowed sharply to hit a four-year low” in March, adding that wind and thermal capacity growth also both slowed.
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‘MOST AMBITIOUS GOAL’: In a separate press conference, Chinese officials confirmed to Bloomberg that a pledge in the 15th five-year plan to double “non-fossil energy” in 10 years referred to energy capacity – not generation or consumption – and would run from 2025-2035. These details were “unclear” in the five-year plan itself, the outlet added. The economic news outlet Economic Daily said that the doubling goal was “one of the most ambitious goals in China’s energy transition history”, adding that “accelerating” the energy transition would allow the country to both reduce its reliance on the international energy market and “seize the high ground in the global race” to develop low-carbon industries.
More China news
- NEW BLEND: China has begun a project to blend gas supplies with 10% hydrogen in a part of Shandong province, reported the South China Morning Post, which added that the shift could cut China’s annual carbon emissions by “roughly 30m tonnes”.
- SKY-HIGH: China launched a “high-precision” satellite to monitor greenhouse gas emissions, said Xinhua.
- SUNNY SPAIN: Chinese automaker SAIC plans to build an electric vehicle (EV) factory in Spain, reported Bloomberg.
- MING YANG: Bloomberg also said that wind turbine maker Ming Yang is considering Spain after plans for a factory in the UK were blocked.
- FORMAL COMPLAINT: China has “formally submitted a complaint” to the EU about its Industrial Accelerator Act, said China Daily.
- EU TARIFFS: China’s commerce minister said he reached a “soft landing” with EU officials on EU tariffs on imports of Chinese-made EVs, according to Reuters.
Spotlight
How war, silver and taxes propelled China’s cleantech exports
China’s export of clean-energy technologies surged in March, driven by a doubling in solar shipments, according to analysis by Carbon Brief of Chinese customs data.
The spike can be explained in part by the impact of the conflict in the Middle East, but analysts argue that a newly enacted solar export policy is also behind the figures.
In this issue, Carbon Brief explores the factors behind the export spike and whether or not it will be sustained.
China’s exports of the “new three” clean-energy technology surged by 70% year-on-year in March 2026, reaching $21.6bn, according to Carbon Brief analysis.
Exports of the three technologies – solar cells and panels, electric vehicles (EVs) and lithium-ion batteries – were also up 37% from February, the month before the Iran war.
The conflict in the Middle East is one explanation for the surge, as it has caused several countries to emphasise the need to increase non-fossil energy supplies.
However, there are also other important drivers, revealed by Carbon Brief analysis of customs data showing differences in exports between solar, EVs and batteries.
Solar exports were notably higher in March 2026 than in the previous two months, jumping 99.2% compared to February.
By contrast, neither batteries’ nor EVs’ March figures came close to the surge in solar cells.
China’s March exports of batteries rose 37% compared with the previous month, while month-on-month EV shipments increased just 1.4%.
(Figures from the China Passenger Car Association suggest a larger rise in percentage terms, but this is based on a narrower scope that does not capture all exports.)
This may be because both technologies saw strong export performance throughout the first quarter of 2026. According to the customs data, more than one million EVs were exported from China between January and March, up 73% compared with the same period last year.
These quarterly exports may have helped meet growing interest in EVs due to the conflict, with BloombergNEF estimating that sales of EVs rose to 1.1m – up 2% year-on-year – in March. (Bloomberg said, within this total, sales “cooled” in China and the US but “surged” in Europe and parts of Asia.)
Solar surge
The chart below shows the export volumes of solar cells, EVs and batteries in March 2025, plus the first three months of 2026.
March’s solar exports were capable of generating 68 gigawatts (GW), equivalent to Spain’s entire installed solar capacity, according to energy thinktank Ember.
The Ember analysis showed that 50 countries set all-time records for Chinese solar imports in March, with another 60 reaching their highest levels in six months.
Exports to Asia doubled to 39GW, while shipments to Africa surged 176% to 10GW. Combined, these two regions accounted for three-quarters of the overall increase in exports.
The Middle East conflict has boosted demand, but a domestic policy deadline was a more immediate driver, analysts told Carbon Brief.
The Chinese government removed export tax rebates for solar products on 1 April, prompting manufacturers to rush out shipments before the change took effect.
Qin Qi, China analyst at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, told Carbon Brief that such policy deadlines “can create a very sharp one-month jump in shipments”.
Batteries and EVs currently continue to receive export rebates.
Falling silver prices are another potential factor, as silver paste is used to make a key component in solar panels. The reversal of a recent price rally that had raised costs helped manufacturers make more panels ahead of the export switch, Marius Mordal Bakke, head of solar research at consultancy Rystad Energy told Reuters.
Temporary spike
Analysts predict that China’s April solar exports are unlikely to repeat March’s surge. Moreover, February exports were depressed by the Chinese New Year public holiday, making the March comparison unusually unfavourable.
“A month-on-month drop in April would not be surprising,” said Qin.
But she remains optimistic that global solar capacity additions outside China will continue to grow in 2026 due to energy supply concerns sparked by the Middle East conflict.
Dave Jones, chief analyst at Ember, said the removal of the export rebate will not “dramatically change demand”, especially as the conflict continues.
He argued that the policy could be positive, telling Carbon Brief: “This is what the global market needs: a more level playing field with China.”
This spotlight is by freelance China analyst Lekai Liu for Carbon Brief.
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TARGET ‘DIFFICULTIES’: Two researchers at the Energy Research Institute, a state thinktank, wrote in Economic Daily that China faces several “difficulties” in meeting its new carbon-intensity targets, including already-high renewable capacity installations and high levels of energy efficiency.
COMPARE AND CONTRAST: The US-China Podcast interviewed Prof Alex Wang on China’s approach to environmentalism and his view on the country’s energy transition.
GOVERNMENT CALLOUT: State broadcaster CCTV published a segment critiquing the massive investments and special treatment that local governments gave to their EV industries, fuelling intense competition.
‘THIN ARGUMENT’: A comment in Lawfare argued that the US should focus more on the “genuine geopolitical risks of climate change and [geoengineering] development”, rather than “thin” arguments around China weaponising weather modification technologies.
22.6%
The rate of “environmental health literacy” – or “recognition of the value of the ecological environment and its impact on health” – among China’s citizens, according to a government survey covered by Xinhua.
New science
- China will need to build more pipelines and push its carbon price above $100/tonne to make “green” ammonia a cost-competitive option for marine fuel | One Earth
- Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from China’s lakes increased from 41m tonnes to 51m tonnes of CO2 per year between 2000 and 2021, coinciding with “rapid lake expansion” across the country | Science Advances
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China Briefing is written by Anika Patel, with contributions from Lekai Liu, and edited by Simon Evans. Please send tips and feedback to china@carbonbrief.org
The post China Briefing 30 April 2026: Fossil fuel ‘strict controls’ | El Niño approaches | Why cleantech exports have surged appeared first on Carbon Brief.
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