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2024年5月,尽管用电需求持续增长,清洁能源发电量占到中国全国总发电量的44%,创下历史新高;燃煤发电量占比降至53%,达到历史低点。

基于官方数据和其他数据,Carbon Brief 的新分析揭示了煤炭在能源结构中占比下降的真实程度。

2023年5月,煤炭在中国发电量中所占比例为60%。一年后,这一数字下降了7个百分点。

该分析揭示的其他关键信息包括:

  • 国家统计局按发电方式分列的月度发电量数据现在对风能和太阳能发电量计入非常有局限性。例如,它未纳入“分布式”屋顶光伏和较小的集中式太阳能发电站,因此只能捕捉到约一半的太阳能发电量。
  • 国家统计局的月度总发电量为718太瓦时(TWh),而国家能源局报告提出月度电力需求为775太瓦时,两者的差距显著。实际上,由于发电厂和电网损耗,发电量肯定应高于需求量。
  • 媒体报道曾猜测,创纪录的新增可再生能源装机容量会在5月份触及电网上限,但新数据显示情况并非如此。
  • 2024年5月,中国电力需求同比增长49太瓦时(7.2%)。
  • 与此同时,清洁能源发电量创纪录地增长了78太瓦时,其中太阳能发电量创纪录地增长了41太瓦时(78%),水力发电量从早些时候干旱造成的低点回升了34太瓦时(39%),风力发电量小幅增长了4太瓦时(5%)。
  • 随着清洁能源的增长超过电力需求增长,化石燃料发电量被迫回落,出现了自2019年新冠大流行以来最大的月度降幅。天然气发电量下降了4太瓦时(16%),燃煤发电量下降了16太瓦时(4%)。
  • 化石燃料发电量的下降意味着电力行业的CO2排放量下降了3.6%,而电力行业的CO2排放量约占中国温室气体排放总量的五分之二,是近年来排放增长的主要来源。
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从2024年3月开始,中国化石燃料和水泥行业的CO2排放量由增变减。新的研究结果表明,这一趋势仍在继续。

如果目前风能和太阳能的快速部署得以继续,那么中国的CO2排放量很可能会继续下降,从而使2023年成为中国碳达峰的一年。

月度数据差异

国家统计局每月都会公布中国按发电方式分列的发电量数据。2024年5月的数据是在近一个月前的6月中旬公布,并被广泛报道。

然而,这些数据的局限性越来越大,因为其中不包括“分布式”光伏电站,如家庭和企业屋顶上安装的光伏系统。本文的分析表明,这使得大约一半的太阳能发电总量被遗漏。

如果仔细审视用电量,国家统计局发电量数据不完整这一事实显而易见:国家能源局报告的5月份用电量为775太瓦时,而国家统计局报告的发电量仅为718太瓦时。实际上,由于发电厂和输电过程中的损耗,发电量肯定远远大于用电量。

国家统计局报告的太阳能和风能发电量似乎很少,这引起了人们的困惑,并导致有报道声称中国的风能和太阳能发电表现不佳。

中电联收集的“利用率”数据可跟踪风能和太阳能发电的表现,显示相对于最大潜力的实际出力。这些数据通常包含在国家能源局发布的月度统计数据中。

国家能源局因在5月份发布的数据中略过了利用率,这导致彭博社和路透社猜测背后原因可能是风能和太阳能数据不佳。这一猜测在中电联直接提供其数据后基本被证明不成立,因为太阳能发电利用率大幅上升;风能利用率虽然下降,但在正常的年度变化范围内。

另一个数据集追踪了由于电网灵活性低而浪费的太阳能和风能发电量的比例,结果显示两者分别小幅增长了0.8和1.7个百分点。这对电厂运营者来说是个问题,但该升幅远未达到会显著影响利用率的程度——消纳率的年际变化幅度通常超过5%。

现在有足够的数据来破解国家统计局发电数据的局限性,并描绘出中国5月份发电结构的全貌。

首先值得一提的是,国家统计局的数据是以30天为一个月进行归一化处理的,这造成了部分数据不匹配。本文剩余部分使用归一化后的30天数据。

除了使用国家统计局数据,还可根据报告的装机容量和利用率来估算太阳能和风能发电量。通过将这些估计值与其他技术的报告发电量相结合,得出总发电量为783太瓦时,同比增长8%。

报告的750太瓦时用电量(按30天为一个月进行归一化)与估计的783太瓦时发电量相符,另有4.2%的差异是由于传输损耗造成的。

目前尚无输电损耗的月度数据,但2023年的平均值为4.5%,与报告的用电量和预估发电量之间的差距非常吻合。

创纪录的结果

综合各种数据可以看出,2024年5月太阳能发电量创纪录地增长了78%,远高于不完整的国家统计局数据中29%的同比增幅。

太阳能发电装机容量增加52%至691吉瓦(gigawatt),产能利用率从16%提高到19%,太阳能发电量从2023年5月的53太瓦时增至2024年5月的94太瓦时,增加了41太瓦时,创下中国各发电方式发电量中最大的增幅。

水电发电量的增幅位居第二,虽然发电量仅增长了1%,但利用率却从31%跃升至41%,因为该行业正从2022年至2023年创纪录的干旱中恢复过来。这使得水电发电量增加了39%(34太瓦时),达到115太瓦时。

风电装机大幅增长了21%,但其利用率却有所下降,这可能是由于风力条件逐月变化所致。因此,发电量的增幅相对较小,仅为5%(4太瓦时),达到83太瓦时。核电和生物质发电的发电量也有小幅增长,但核电站的利用率从87%下降到85%。

如下图所示,清洁能源发电量总计增长了78太瓦时。这足以超过49太瓦时的需求增长。

因此,尽管燃气发电装机增加了9%,但发电量却大幅下降16%,利用率急剧下降了24%。燃煤发电装机增加了3%,但发电量却下降了3.7%,平均利用率下降了7%。需求下降可能会抑制过去两年火热的对新建煤炭产能的投资。

燃煤和燃气发电量的变化,加之燃煤电厂热耗率的轻微下降,意味着电力行业的CO2排放量下降了3.6%。

2016-2024 年中国每月发电量同比变化 (terawatt hours)。 根据 WIND Information 上中国电力企业联合会报告的容量和利用率计算出风能、太阳能发电量, 和按燃料划分的火力发电明细;根据国家统计局每月发布的数据计算出火电总发电量和其他发电来源的总量。 Carbon Brief制图。
2016-2024 年中国每月发电量同比变化 (terawatt hours)。 根据 WIND Information 上中国电力企业联合会报告的容量和利用率计算出风能、太阳能发电量, 和按燃料划分的火力发电明细;根据国家统计局每月发布的数据计算出火电总发电量和其他发电来源的总量。 Carbon Brief制图。

在发电量发生上述变化后,中国的发电结构在2024年5月已大幅减少了对化石燃料的依赖。如下图所示,燃煤发电份额从去年同期的60%降至53%,是有记录以来的最低份额。

与此同时,太阳能发电占比从去年同期的7%上升到12%,创历史最高纪录。其余为风电(11%)、水电(15%)、核电(5%)、天然气发电(3%)和生物质发电(2%)。

2016-2024年发电量份额 (%)。Carbon Brief 制图。根据 WIND Information 上中国电力企业联合会报告的容量和利用率计算出风能、太阳能发电量, 和按燃料划分的火力发电明细;根据国家统计局每月发布的数据计算出火电总发电量和其他发电来源的总量。 Carbon Brief制图。
2016-2024年发电量份额 (%)。Carbon Brief 制图。根据 WIND Information 上中国电力企业联合会报告的容量和利用率计算出风能、太阳能发电量, 和按燃料划分的火力发电明细;根据国家统计局每月发布的数据计算出火电总发电量和其他发电来源的总量。 Carbon Brief制图。

非化石能源的总体份额达到创纪录的44%,间歇性可再生能源(太阳能和风能)的比例也创下新高,达到23%。

如上图所示,尽管需求不断增长,但太阳能和风能在中国电力结构中的份额正在迅速增加。2016年5月,它们仅占总量的7%。

与此同时,2024年5月,清洁能源发电装机继续强劲增长,新增太阳能发电装机19吉瓦 ,风电3吉瓦 ,核电1.2吉瓦。

在2024年的前五个月,中国新增了约79吉瓦的太阳能和20吉瓦的风能。如下图所示,这两个新增发电装机数字比去年分别增长了29%和21%,而去年的数字已经创下历史新高。

就太阳能发电具体而言,2024年5月的月新增装机高于4月,与2023年5月相比也有同比增长。

每年从一月份风电和太阳能的累计新增发电装机容量 (gigawatts)。根据国家能源局每月发布的数据。 Carbon Brief制图。
每年从一月份风电和太阳能的累计新增发电装机容量 (gigawatts)。根据国家能源局每月发布的数据。 Carbon Brief制图。

太阳能发电量的快速增长表明,太阳能产能的激增正在提供新的电力供应,其规模足以满足中国大部分的需求增长。

这进一步印证了中国的CO2排放量正处于结构性下降时期的观点。

如果清洁能源的新增装机保持在2023年和2024年初的水平,那么CO2排放量可能会持续下降,这将确定2023年是中国实现碳达峰的一年。

由于中国将在明年初宣布新的气候目标,政府对清洁能源增长的雄心水平仍有待观察。

关于数据

风能和太阳能发电量,以及按燃料划分的火电发电量系通过将每月末的发电装机乘月利用率计算得出,数据来自万得金融终端提供的中电联报告数据。

火电、水电和核电的总发电量来源于国家统计局的月度发布数据。由于无法获得生物质发电的月度利用率数据,因此采用2023年的年平均利用率52%。

发电产生的碳排放量估算基于中国最新的2018年国家温室气体排放清单中的排放因子,以及国家能源局公布的燃煤电厂月平均热耗率,并假设燃气电厂平均热耗率为50%。

The post 分析:中国清洁能源发展使五月燃煤发电份额降至53%的历史低点 appeared first on Carbon Brief.

分析:中国清洁能源发展使五月燃煤发电份额降至53%的历史低点

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Climate Change

New Zealand moves to protect business with law curtailing climate litigation

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New Zealand’s parliament has adopted a controversial new law blocking a whole avenue of climate litigation and shutting down its most advanced corporate lawsuit, which has been blamed by the government for shaking business confidence and investment.

The Climate Change Response (Tort Liability) Amendment Bill, expected to take effect in the coming days after it is formally signed by the Governor-General, prevents all current and future civil claims for climate loss or harm under tort law.

Justice minister Paul Goldsmith said last week that the aim was to give businesses “certainty around their climate change obligations”, noting it would not alter the government’s responsibilities under the Climate Change Response Act 2002 nor business obligations under the Emissions Trading Scheme.

“Our response to climate change is best managed by the Government at a national level and not through piece-meal litigation in the courts,” he added in a statement.

Such litigation, he said, “risks developing a new regime that contradicts the framework Parliament has already enacted” to tackle climate change.

    Goldsmith singled out a key domestic climate lawsuit brought by Northland iwi leader and activist Mike Smith against six big companies: dairy firms Fonterra and Dairy Holdings, energy firms Genesis Energy and Z Energy, New Zealand Steel and coal mining firm BT Mining. A seventh original defendant, Channel Infrastructure, was dropped after it permanently decommissioned its Marsden Point oil refinery.

    Smith argued that these companies had caused him harm under public nuisance and negligence law, as well as a third breach of a duty to cease contributing to climate change that has yet to be tested domestically. He did not seek financial compensation, instead asking for the companies to immediately stop emitting or contributing to net greenhouse gas emissions.

    In one of the most advanced corporate climate accountability lawsuits in the world, a trial had been scheduled for April 2027 after the Supreme Court unanimously allowed the case to continue.

    Corporate lobbying in the shadows

    Smith described the passing of the bill as “deeply concerning”, particularly as it coincided with the Supreme Court hearing another of his climate lawsuits. In that case, Smith v Attorney-General, he argues that the government’s response to climate change and its impacts on Māori communities in particular breaches rights to life and culture.

    “That timing raises profound questions about the separation of powers and the rule of law,” said Smith. “Whatever one’s view of the merits of these cases, it is deeply troubling when parliament intervenes to remove a legal pathway while the courts are actively considering fundamental questions about climate responsibility, rights and the crown’s obligations.”

    The bill – which says that no person (including the government) can be found liable in tort for emissions-related climate change effects – followed major lobbying efforts by the companies defending themselves in Smith’s lawsuit. They outlined a proposed legal amendment in a briefing note to the government in 2024.

    The centre-right government has been fiercely criticised over its lack of transparency in relation to this lobbying activity. The national ombudsman recently found that the Prime Minister’s Office effectively withheld information requested by the Environmental Law Initiative about meetings, discussions and conversations regarding Smith’s case.

    Green groups fail to stop bill

    The bill sparked huge concern among environmental campaigners in New Zealand and elsewhere. Greenpeace Aotearoa called it a “shocking abuse of executive power” and the vast majority of submissions to a parliamentary inquiry said it should be rejected.

    But in the end, it was adopted with little resistance, moving relatively smoothly through parliament, passing its third reading by 67 votes to 53. Sam Bookman, climate law lecturer at Melbourne Law School, told Climate Home News he was not surprised by this, given that the coalition government has a secure majority.

    A complaint has been made to the UN special rapporteur on climate change and human rights by Smith, the National Iwi Chairs Forum Pou Tikanga and youth coalition Climate Clinic Aotearoa over what they see as the government’s heavy-handed approach. Smith is also challenging the new law in yet another lawsuit.

    “Pathetic”: New Zealand plans to barely cut emissions between 2030 and 2035

    Bookman thinks it “very unlikely” that such a challenge will succeed, noting that New Zealand’s constitution is firmly anchored in parliamentary sovereignty.

    But the expert in climate law does not see the bill as the end of legal action in the country, noting that New Zealand has a “sophisticated climate litigation landscape with a growing number of specialist and experienced lawyers and NGOs”.

    The country is also approaching its next general election in November, and some opposition parties have pledged to restore access to the courts if elected.

    Amanda Larsson, global project lead on agriculture for Greenpeace International, said: “This law deserves to be tested, and I strongly encourage the international climate litigation community to unite and help defend New Zealanders’ fundamental right to hold polluters accountable before this becomes a global blueprint.”

    Copycat legislation on the rise

    New Zealand’s move is part of a small but growing legislative effort to shut down climate litigation around the world.

    In the US, Republican politicians introduced legislation in the House and Senate in April that would shield fossil fuel firms from climate liability lawsuits. Similar laws have already been passed at state level in Tennessee, Utah, Iowa and Louisiana.

    The German state of Bavaria has put forward a similar proposal to the Federal Council, aiming to block private climate claims as well as the recognition and enforcement of foreign judgments imposing such liability. There are also proposals to limit available remedies and actions in the Netherlands and Belgium.

    UN General Assembly backs “climate obligations” set by world’s top court

    Bookman said he expects more efforts to counter climate damages litigation and advised plaintiffs to think about how to respond, including drawing on broader support in opposing them.

    “Even though it’s very hard for plaintiffs to win these types of cases, companies are very eager to avoid the expense, embarrassment and political accountability that come even with unsuccessful lawsuits,” he said.

    The post New Zealand moves to protect business with law curtailing climate litigation appeared first on Climate Home News.

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    Climate Change

    Indonesia’s nickel production cuts are not enough to create a sustainable industry 

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    Bhima Yudhistira Adhinegara is the Executive Director of the Center of Economic and Law Studies (CELIOS), an Indonesia-based economic think tank. Muhammad Zulfikar Rakhmat is the Director of the China-Indonesia desk at CELIOS. 

    Indonesia produces around 60% of the world’s nickel, a metal used to manufacture batteries for electric vehicles (EVs) – more than any other country in the world. But in 2026, the government sharply reduced how much of its nickel can be extracted from the ground.

    Production quotas were reduced by around 40% this year compared to 2025. Weda Bay, the largest nickel mine on Earth, had its allowance cut by more than 70% and exhausted its full-year quota by the end of May, halting mining entirely; it cannot resume large-scale extraction until next year unless regulators grant an extension.

    The policy has sparked a vivid debate in Indonesian policy circles: how can the country shift its strategy from a decade of mining vast quantities of cheap nickel to producing a high-value and low-carbon material that the rest of the world wants for EV batteries.

    The cuts aren’t a silver bullet to clean up Indonesia’s nickel industry, whose smelters are powered by coal – the most polluting fossil fuels. But alongside stricter enforcement of environmental rules, it is one side of efforts to produce more sustainable nickel for a premium.

    Restricting Indonesia’s nickel output

    Production quotas were introduced to stop the collapse of nickel prices because of oversupply in the market. Prices had fallen more than 40% in 2023 alone and kept sliding as Indonesian supply kept growing, hitting a four-year low of around $13,900 a ton in late 2025.

    Critics called the recent tightening of production quotas proof that Indonesia’s nickel strategy has failed, arguing that the industry shouldn’t need to throttle its own output to survive. But when assessed against what the policy was supposed to do – push up nickel prices – it has worked. Prices jumped to $20,000 a ton in May, the highest since 2024.

      Chinese industry groups representing companies that have invested billions to mine and refine the country’s nickel were furious, warning Indonesia’s president Prabowo Subianto that the cuts put $50 billion worth of investment at risk. But much of that Chinese capital is sunk into smelters and processing plants built specifically to run on Indonesian ore, and cannot simply be moved elsewhere. That gives Jakarta more room to hold its ground than the warning suggests.

      Stronger environmental enforcement

      Since the start of the year, Indonesia’s forestry task force has seized more than four million hectares of land from mines and plantations operating illegally in protected forests, collecting over two trillion rupiah ($113 million) in fines.

      This included 148 hectares seized from Weda Bay for lacking a forestry permit. The share of nickel produced from illegal small-scale mining also fell from about a quarter in 2022 to roughly 10% by 2024.

      The crackdown responds to serious environmental damages in the nickel industry. On Obi Island, a waste pond collapsed after heavy rain in June 2025, flooding three villages and killing a resident. Internal company tests found chromium-6 – a carcinogen – in the water, in quantities far above the legal limit. The footprint of another mine near Raja Ampat, which is home to some of the world’s richest coral reefs, grew 60-fold in just eight years.

      A coastal village is wedged between the sea and a large nickel mine in Indonesia
      The fishing villages of Tapunggaya in Sulawesi, Indonesia, are squeezed between the sea and an expanding nickel mine (Photo by Garry Lotulung/NurPhoto)

      The market is responding to early cleanup efforts. Low-carbon nickel now sells for a real premium, roughly $18,800 to $19,300 a ton compared with $17,900 to $18,300 otherwise, as carmakers seek to source cleaner materials to comply with the European Union’s new emissions rules for imports.

      In turn, this is incentivising the industry to do more to green its operations. Vale Indonesia’s smelter in South Sulawesi now runs almost entirely on hydropower, for example.

      None of this addresses coal use, however. Major Indonesian nickel producers still emitted an estimated 15 million metric tons of greenhouse gases in 2023. Indonesia may be cracking down on illegal mining and rewarding cleaner producers but it is still running its mines on the dirtiest fuel available.

      Unequal benefits

      For Indonesia to truly benefit from producing cleaner and high-value nickel, it needs to reap the economic benefits too. Although the industry has boosted the country’s economic growth, the reality on the ground tells a different story.

      Konawe in Southeast Sulawesi is home to a major smelting complex. Growth in the district jumped from 6% to 22% between 2015 and 2023, driven almost entirely by the nickel industry, according to a study by the Lowy Institute study. At the same time, poverty levels increased slightly and unemployment remained unchanged.

        In Halmahera, another epicentre of the nickel industry, spending by the poorest fifth grew just 5% between 2019 and 2022, compared with 28% for the wealthiest fifth, according to a separate study.

        Part of the reason for this inequality is the system for transferring mining royalties to district authorities where the mines are located. In theory, they are entitled to the largest share. But in practice, payments are delayed, companies routinely dispute what they owe and royalties are pooled and distributed across a larger area.

        The Natural Resource Governance Institute has found that decentralisation handed local governments power to approve new mines faster than they could build their capacity to manage them. Higher output raises national income on paper, but local governments remain constrained by fiscal rules and infrastructure costs that scale with mining.

        None of this makes the 2026 quota cuts a mistake. Indonesia has every right to defend its pricing power over a resource it controls. But limiting extraction isn’t going to fix underlying issues around environmental enforcement and revenue-sharing. That requires rules that are consistently enforced, royalties that reach communities living by the mines, and a plan to wean smelters off coal.

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        Indonesia’s nickel production cuts are not enough to create a sustainable industry 

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        Climate Change

        Risk of “catastrophic” oil spill reaching Kimberley coast found in Woodside’s Scott Reef gas drilling plans

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        SYDNEY, Monday 24 August 2026 – New analysis of Woodside modelling released by Greenpeace Australia Pacific and Environs Kimberley has revealed the oil and gas corporation’s plans to drill at Scott Reef could cause an oil spill up to 30 times bigger than the 2009 Montara disaster, impacting the Kimberley coastline and reaching as far as Indonesia.

        The new analysis details the “catastrophic” oil spill risk put to environmental regulators for approval by Woodside in its Browse to North West Shelf Project (Browse) plans, the worst-case scenario being a blowout directly below Scott Reef, polluting whale migratory pathways and covering isolated turtle nesting ground with oil condensate.

        An FOI application (F348) revealed the federal environment department (DCCEEW) asked offshore oil and gas regulator NOPSEMA to look into the oil spill risk in 2025. NOPSEMA’s response to the application refused access to its report, and one document shows DCCEEW sought further advice this year.

        Greenpeace and Environs Kimberley are calling on the Federal Government to publicly release the NOPSEMA report given the risk of an uncontrolled release of oil condensate from directly below Scott Reef.

        Hannah Schuch, Senior Campaigner at Greenpeace Australia Pacific, said: “Woodside is aware that drilling at Scott Reef risks a massive oil spill that would have severe, far-reaching consequences. It appears environmental regulators are aware too.

        “The state and federal governments need to take this risk from Woodside’s drilling plans seriously, as they could end up allowing the worst oil spill in Australian history.

        “The pygmy blue whales that migrate up and down the WA coast with their newborns each year could be swimming and feeding in toxic, oil-slicked water. Woodside’s proposal to drill at Scott Reef is an environmental disaster waiting to happen, and the WA and federal governments have one surefire way to prevent catastrophe — reject Browse.”

        Martin Prichard, Executive Director at Environs Kimberley, said: “A catastrophic oil spill by Woodside would be disastrous not just for marine life in the area but also for the Kimberley’s $500 million tourism industry.

        “The state and federal governments will see five marine parks on the Kimberley coast included in the risk area of a catastrophic Woodside oil spill.

        “The Montara oil spill was disastrous for West Timor with the toxic oil destroying seaweed farmers’ livelihoods. The Kimberley dodged a bullet with Montara, we were lucky the spill didn’t head our way. Myself and a crew flew over the Montara oil spill and followed it as far as we could. It was like a scene from a disaster movie.”

        After the WA Environmental Protection Authority deemed Browse “unacceptable” due, in part, to oil spill risk, Woodside submitted a mitigation plan based on technology that has never been used “in anger”, a weakness stated in an independent expert review of the plan.

        Professor Richard Steiner, independent oil spill expert, said: “A large offshore spill is impossible to effectively contain or recover. Historically, only 2-6% of total spill volume is recovered and the ecological injury from the release of toxic hydrocarbons in the sea can be severe, extensive, and long-term.

        “Here in Alaska, government research concludes that several marine populations injured by the 1989 Exxon Valdez oil spill, including whales, fish, and seabirds, are still not recovering today, 37 years later. We should expect similar long-term ecological impacts in Western Australia if there were to be a major oil spill. The only sure way to avoid the risk of a catastrophic marine oil spill is to not develop oil and gas projects in marine environments.”

        -ENDS-

        Media contact

        Emma Sangalli on emma.sangalli@greenpeace.org or 0431 513 465

        Risk of “catastrophic” oil spill reaching Kimberley coast found in Woodside’s Scott Reef gas drilling plans

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