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Nickel Prices - Alaska Energy Metals - AEMC

Disseminated on behalf of Alaska Energy Metals Corporation.

nickel Price Analysis Today

Nickel futures rallied as markets priced in Indonesia’s tightened 2026 ore quotas, sparking supply concerns that overshadowed earlier geopolitical jitters. Robust purchasing activity from China’s electric vehicle battery sector and stainless steel mills provided fundamental support, triggering a technical rebound from recent lows. The move reflects a swift shift in sentiment as investors prioritize looming supply deficits over broader macroeconomic headwinds.

The global nickel market enters 2026 after a bruising and uneven year. In 2025, macroeconomic stress, trade disruptions, and deep supply imbalances reshaped pricing and sentiment. Although short-term rallies have returned, the underlying structure of the market remains fragile. As a result, 2026 is shaping up to be a year defined by volatility rather than a sustained recovery.

A Challenging Backdrop from 2025

To understand where nickel is headed, it helps to revisit the environment it emerged from. In 2025, global trade flows came under pressure after the US implemented new tariff policies. These measures disrupted supply chains and dampened confidence across industrial commodities. At the same time, global manufacturing growth slowed, weighing heavily on the broader nonferrous metals complex.

SMM reported highlighted some significant points. Adding to the uncertainty, the US Federal Reserve sent mixed signals throughout the year. Expectations around interest rate cuts shifted repeatedly. Each change altered risk appetite and triggered sharp moves across commodity markets. Nickel, already vulnerable due to oversupply, struggled to attract sustained buying interest.

China attempted to offset some of these pressures. Policymakers rolled out proactive fiscal measures and maintained a moderately accommodative monetary policy. They also focused on boosting domestic demand and diversifying export routes to reduce exposure to trade frictions. In July, China introduced its “anti-involution” policy, aimed at curbing destructive price competition across industries.

Even so, nickel underperformed. While other nonferrous metals showed mixed results, nickel remained constrained by a clear mismatch between supply and demand. Prices trended lower for most of the year. LME nickel opened near $15,365 per tonne and slid to lows around $13,865 per tonne, marking a sharp reset in the price center.

2026 Nickel Price Outlook: A Volatile Start to the New Cycle

Momentum shifted suddenly toward the end of the year. From mid-December, nickel prices began climbing rapidly.

  • By early January, LME prices had surged past $18,000 per tonne, the first time in more than a year. In just 12 trading sessions, prices jumped nearly 20%, catching many traders off guard.

nickel prices

Several factors fueled this rebound. Demand signals from China improved modestly, particularly from stainless steel mills and EV battery producers. At the same time, speculative positioning adjusted as supply risks from Indonesia returned to the spotlight.

Trading Economics analysis stated that Indonesia, the world’s largest nickel producer, hinted at a potential 34% reduction in output for this year. Meanwhile, Vale temporarily halted operations at its Pomalaa and Bahodopi mines while waiting for regulatory approvals. Although its flagship Sorowako mine continued operating, these pauses added to market caution.

Still, the rally faced clear limits. Inventory levels remained elevated. Combined LME registered and off-warrant stocks jumped nearly 58% last year, reaching more than 367,000 tonnes. In addition, large shadow inventories in Singapore and Kaohsiung continued to hang over the market. As a result, every price spike met resistance.

Price Expectations Remain Capped

Most analysts expect nickel prices to settle into a narrow band rather than trend sharply higher. Forecasts largely cluster between $15,000 and $16,000 per tonne. Several major institutions attribute the restrained outlook to ongoing surpluses.

Analysts consider that the differences in price forecasts primarily reflect contrasting views on how strictly Indonesia will enforce production limits and how quickly global manufacturing activity is expected to recover.

Nickel Demand Drivers Show Modest Growth

  • Stainless steel: remains the dominant driver, accounting for about 70% of total demand. Consumption may rise to roughly 2.45 to 2.5 million tonnes. China’s production recovery offers support, while infrastructure projects in emerging markets add incremental demand. Still, no major surge is expected.
  • Battery and EV application: They make up roughly 13% to 15% of demand. Nickel use in this segment could reach up to 500,000 tonnes. High-nickel cathodes continue to support premium EV models.

According to Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, demand for battery-grade nickel is expected to surge, tripling by 2030. This growth will largely be due to mid- and high-performance EVs in Western markets.GLOBAL nickel supply nickel demand

Other uses, including alloying, plating, aerospace, and electronics, provide steady but smaller contributions. A broader manufacturing recovery and net-zero investments could lift demand slightly, while faster EV adoption remains the main upside risk.

Supply-Demand Balance Stays Uneven

According to SMM, the nickel market will remain oversupplied through the year, remaining between 120,000 and 275,000 tonnes. While short-term rallies may continue, oversupply will remain the dominant force.

On the supply side, Indonesia’s refined nickel output stays high, supported by sunk investments and low operating costs. On the demand side, growth remains steady but unspectacular.

indonesia nickel
Source: AEMC

Ewa Manthey, a commodities strategist at London-Based ING Group, explained that the global nickel market is still set to remain oversupplied, with a projected surplus of about 261,000 metric tonnes. As a result, any production cuts would need to be deep and sustained to meaningfully shift market fundamentals.

Global nickel market

China’s real estate support policies may provide limited relief for stainless steel consumption. However, a strong housing rebound appears unlikely, and any improvement is expected to be gradual. Similarly, demand from ternary batteries faces structural headwinds. Solid-state batteries remain years away from large-scale commercial use, and near-term battery chemistry trends do not favor a sharp jump in nickel intensity.

As a result, the average price level may drift lower over time. Tightening ore supply could briefly push prices above $16,000 per tonne. However, high inventories and excess capacity will take longer to absorb.

Why Nickel Matters for US Critical Mineral Independence?

Nickel plays a critical role in military-grade alloys, advanced weapons systems, electric vehicle batteries, grid-scale energy storage, and broader clean energy infrastructure. Despite its importance, the United States remains almost entirely dependent on imports for nickel, while China controls much of the global processing and supply chain. This reliance has become a clear strategic risk, one that domestic resources need more exploration.

And this is the reason America’s push to secure its critical mineral supply is gaining real momentum.

Spotlight: Alaska Energy Metals – America’s Nickel Backbone

At the center of this shift is Alaska Energy Metals Corporation (TSX-V: AEMC, OTCQB: AKEMF) and its Eureka deposit, the largest documented nickel resource in the United States. As Washington intensifies efforts to reshore critical supply chains for national security and clean energy goals, AEMC’s Nikolai Project in Alaska is steadily gaining recognition as a strategic domestic asset.

At the same time, the project aligns closely with the Trump administration’s executive orders focused on critical minerals and Alaska resource development. Those directives sought to speed up domestic production, curb reliance on foreign suppliers, and reinforce US security interests.

Against this backdrop, Nikolai stands out as a fully US-based “Sulphide nickel and battery metal project” to meet the country’s metal needs for the energy transition. Significantly, it has two claim blocks: Eureka and Canwell.

Nikolai nickel aemc
Source: AEMC

Eureka: The Largest Known Nickel Resource in the US

The Eureka deposit is not just large—it is nationally strategic. It hosts nickel alongside copper, cobalt, chromium, iron, and platinum group metals, including platinum and palladium. This metal mix makes Eureka highly relevant for both defense systems and the expanding clean energy economy.

According to the 2025 Mineral Resource Estimate, Eureka contains:

  • Indicated Resource of 814 million tonnes grading 0.42% nickel equivalent, representing 5.62 billion pounds of nickel in situ.
  • Inferred Resource of 896 million tonnes grading 0.39% nickel equivalent, totaling 9.38 billion pounds of nickel in situ.

Combined, the deposit contains more than 15 billion pounds of nickel, enough to support American demand for decades.

FAST-41 Listing Accelerates the Nikolai Project

A major step forward came when the Nikolai Project was accepted onto the FAST-41 Transparency Dashboard by the Federal Permitting Improvement Steering Council.

  • The initial phase focuses on infrastructure upgrades, including rehabilitation and extension of the Rainy Creek Mining Trail, installation of temporary bridges, and development of an on-site camp.

These improvements will lower exploration costs, improve safety, enable better site access, and speed up the transition to advanced exploration and development at Eureka. Just as important, FAST-41 provides transparency, inter-agency coordination, and defined permitting milestones.

aemc nikolai eureka
Source: AEMC

Key catalysts ahead

AEMC is entering a phase with several near- and mid-term value drivers. These include a first-pass metallurgical study to assess metal recovery, the potential for a major US Department of Defense grant, completion of a Preliminary Economic Assessment, and continued drilling at the Angliers target. Each step strengthens the investment and strategic case for Eureka.

Nickel Oversupply Overseas, Opportunity in the US

In summary, the nickel market faces another complex year. Structural oversupply, elevated inventories, and cautious demand growth define the landscape. Although policy shifts in Indonesia and short-term demand improvements can trigger sharp rallies, fundamentals continue to cap sustained upside. For now, nickel remains a market driven more by volatility than by balance.

As the US rebuilds its domestic critical mineral supply chain, assets like Eureka are becoming indispensable. With its scale, multi-metal profile, federal permitting support, and alignment with national policy priorities, Alaska Energy Metals Corporation is positioning itself as a key player in America’s push for resource security. In a world increasingly defined by competition for critical metals, Eureka has the potential to become the backbone of the US nickel supply for generations.

READ MORE: Nickel Demand to Triple by 2030: Can the Market Keep Up?

The post Nickel Prices Hit $18,000 in 2026 Amid Global Oversupply, US Boosts Domestic Supply Chain appeared first on Carbon Credits.

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Why a forest with more species stores more carbon

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A forest is not just trees. The number of species it holds, from canopy giants to understorey shrubs to soil fungi, directly determines how much carbon it can absorb, and, more importantly, how much it can keep over time. Buyers of carbon credits increasingly ask a reasonable question: Is the carbon in this project long-lasting? The science of biodiversity has a clear answer.

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OpenAI Hits Pause on $40B UK AI Project: Energy Costs Shake Data Center Economics

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OpenAI Hits Pause on $40B UK AI Project: Energy Costs Shake Data Center Economics

ChatGPT developer OpenAI has paused its flagship UK data center project, known as “Stargate UK,” citing high energy costs and regulatory uncertainty. The project was part of a broader £31 billion ($40+ billion) investment plan aimed at expanding artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure in the country.

The initiative was designed to deploy up to 8,000 GPUs initially, with plans to scale to 31,000 GPUs over time. It was aimed to boost the UK’s “sovereign compute” capacity. This means building local infrastructure to support AI development and reduce reliance on foreign systems.

However, the company has now paused development. An OpenAI spokesperson stated that they:

“…support the government’s ambition to be an AI leader. AI compute is foundational to that goal – we continue to explore Stargate UK and will move forward when the right conditions such as regulation and the cost of energy enable long-term infrastructure investment.”

Energy Costs Are Now a Core Constraint

The main issue is energy. AI data centers require large amounts of electricity to run GPUs and cooling systems.

In the UK, industrial electricity prices are among the highest in developed markets. Recent estimates show costs at around £168 per megawatt-hour, compared to £69 in France and £38 in Texas. This gap creates a major disadvantage for large-scale data center investments.

AI workloads are especially power-intensive. A single large data center can consume as much electricity as tens of thousands of homes. As AI adoption grows, this demand is rising quickly.

Globally, the International Energy Agency estimates that data centers could consume over 1,000 terawatt-hours (TWh) of electricity by 2030, up sharply from about 415 TWh in 2024. This growth is largely driven by AI. 

data center electricity use 2035
Source: IEA

The result is clear. Energy is no longer just a cost. It is a key factor in where AI infrastructure gets built.

Regulation Adds Another Layer of Risk

Energy is only part of the challenge. Regulation is also slowing investment. In the UK, uncertainty around AI rules, especially copyright laws for training data, has created hesitation among companies.

Earlier proposals to allow AI firms to use copyrighted content were withdrawn after backlash. This left companies without clear guidance on compliance.

For large infrastructure projects, this uncertainty increases risk. Data centers require billions in upfront investment. Companies need stable rules before committing capital.

Planning delays and grid connection timelines also add friction. These factors increase both cost and project timelines.

Together, energy costs and regulatory uncertainty create a difficult environment for hyperscale AI infrastructure.

OpenAI’s Global Infrastructure Expands, But More Selectively

Despite the pause, ChatGPT-maker is still expanding globally. The company is investing heavily in AI infrastructure through partnerships with Microsoft, NVIDIA, and Oracle. It is also linked to a much larger $500 billion “Stargate” initiative in the United States, focused on building next-generation AI data centers.

At the same time, the company faces rising costs. Reports suggest OpenAI could lose billions of dollars annually as it scales infrastructure to meet demand.

This reflects a broader industry shift. AI is becoming more like energy or telecom infrastructure. It requires large capital investment, long timelines, and stable operating conditions.

The pause also highlights a deeper issue. AI growth is increasing pressure on energy systems and the environment.

The Hidden Carbon Cost Behind Every AI Query

ChatGPT and similar tools rely on large data centers. These facilities already account for about 1% to 1.5% of global electricity use. Projections for their energy use vary widely due to various factors. 

Each individual query may seem small. A typical ChatGPT request can use about 0.3 watt-hours of electricity, which is relatively low. However, usage at scale changes the picture.

ChatGPT now serves hundreds of millions of users. Even small energy use per query adds up quickly. Training models is even more energy-intensive. For example, training GPT-3 required about 1,287 megawatt-hours of electricity and produced roughly 550 metric tons of CO₂.

chatgpt environmental footprint

Newer models are even larger. Some estimates suggest training advanced models like GPT-4 could emit up to 15,000 metric tons of CO₂, depending on the energy source.

At the system level, the impact is growing fast. AI systems could generate between 32.6 and 79.7 million tons of CO₂ emissions in 2025 alone. By 2030, AI-driven data centers could add 24 to 44 million tons of CO₂ annually.

AI servers annual carbon emissions
Note: carbon emissions (g) of AI servers from 2024 to 2030 under different scenarios. The red dashed lines in e–g denote the forecast footprint of the US data centres, based on previous literature. Source: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-025-01681-y

Looking further ahead, global generative AI emissions could reach up to 245 million tons per year by 2035 if growth continues. These numbers show a clear pattern. Efficiency is improving, but total demand is rising faster.

Big Tech Scrambles to Balance AI Growth and Emissions

OpenAI has not published a detailed standalone net-zero target. However, its operations rely heavily on partners such as Microsoft, which has committed to becoming carbon negative by 2030.

The company has acknowledged that energy use is a real concern. Leadership has pointed to the need for more renewable energy, including nuclear and clean power, to support AI growth.

Across the industry, companies are responding in several ways:

  • Improving model efficiency to reduce energy per query
  • Investing in renewable energy and long-term power contracts
  • Exploring new cooling systems to reduce water and energy use

Efficiency gains are already visible. Some AI systems have reduced energy per query by more than 30 times within a year, showing how quickly technology can improve. Still, total emissions continue to rise because demand is scaling faster than efficiency gains.

The Global AI Infrastructure Race

The pause in the UK highlights a larger trend. AI infrastructure is becoming a global competition shaped by energy, policy, and cost.

Regions with lower energy prices and faster permitting processes have an advantage. The United States and parts of the Middle East are attracting large-scale AI investments due to cheaper power and supportive policies.

At the same time, governments are trying to attract these projects. The UK has pledged billions to support AI growth and improve compute capacity. But this case shows that policy ambition alone is not enough. Companies need reliable energy, clear rules, and predictable costs.

AI’s Next Phase Will Be Decided by Energy, Not Code

The decision by OpenAI does not signal a retreat from AI investment. Instead, it reflects a shift in priorities.

Companies are becoming more selective about where they build infrastructure. They are focusing on locations that offer the right mix of energy access, cost stability, and regulatory clarity.

The UK project may still move forward, but only if conditions improve. For now, the message is clear. The future of AI will not be shaped by technology alone. It will also depend on energy systems, policy frameworks, and long-term investment conditions.

The post OpenAI Hits Pause on $40B UK AI Project: Energy Costs Shake Data Center Economics appeared first on Carbon Credits.

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U.S. Uranium Mining Returns: UEC Launches First New Mine in a Decade

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U.S. Uranium Mining Returns: UEC Launches First New Mine in a Decade

Uranium Energy Corporation (NYSE: UEC) has started production at its Burke Hollow project in South Texas. This is the first new uranium mine to open in the U.S. in over ten years.

The project started production in April 2026 after getting final regulatory approval. This marks a big step for domestic uranium supply. It’s also the world’s newest in-situ recovery (ISR) uranium mine, which shows a move toward less harmful extraction methods.

Burke Hollow was originally discovered in 2012 and spans roughly 20,000 acres, with only about half of the site explored so far. This suggests significant long-term expansion potential as additional wellfields are developed.

The mine’s output will go to UEC’s Hobson Central Processing Plant in Texas. This plant can produce up to 4 million pounds of uranium each year.

A Scalable ISR Platform Expands U.S. Uranium Capacity

The Burke Hollow launch transforms UEC into a multi-site uranium producer in the United States. The company runs two active ISR production platforms. The second one is at its Christensen Ranch facility in Wyoming; both are shown in the table from UEC.

UEC burke hollow resources

UEC Christensen Ranch resources

This “hub-and-spoke” model allows uranium from multiple wellfields to be processed through centralized facilities, improving efficiency and scalability. UEC’s operations in Texas and Wyoming are now active. This gives them a licensed production capacity of about 12 million pounds per year across the U.S.

ISR mining plays a key role in this strategy. Unlike conventional mining, ISR involves circulating solutions underground to dissolve uranium and pump it to the surface. This reduces surface disturbance and can lower environmental impact compared to open-pit or underground mining.

Burke Hollow is the largest ISR uranium discovery in the U.S. in the last ten years. This boosts its long-term value as a domestic resource.

Unhedged Strategy Pays Off as Uranium Prices Rise

UEC’s production launch comes at a time of strong uranium market conditions. The company uses a fully unhedged strategy. This means it sells uranium at current market prices instead of securing long-term contracts.

This approach has recently delivered strong financial results. In early 2026, UEC sold 200,000 pounds of uranium for $101 each. This price was about 25% higher than average market rates. The sale brought in over $20 million in revenue and around $10 million in gross profit.

The strategy allows the company to benefit directly from rising uranium prices, which have been supported by:

  • Growing global nuclear energy demand
  • Supply constraints in key producing regions
  • Increased long-term contracting by utilities

Unhedged exposure raises risk in downturns, but offers more upside in strong markets. UEC is currently taking advantage of this.

Nuclear Energy Growth Is Driving Demand for Uranium

The timing of Burke Hollow’s launch aligns with a broader global shift back toward nuclear energy. Governments are increasingly turning to nuclear power as a reliable, low-carbon energy source.

nuclear power capacity additions IAEA projection 2024 to 2050
Source: IAEA

The International Atomic Energy Agency projects that global nuclear capacity could double by 2050, depending on policy and investment trends. This would require a significant increase in uranium supply.

In the United States, nuclear energy accounts for around 20% of electricity generation. It also produces zero carbon emissions during operations. This makes it a key component of many net-zero strategies.

There are several factors supporting renewed nuclear demand, including:

  • Development of small modular reactors (SMRs)
  • Extension of existing nuclear plant lifetimes
  • Government funding to maintain nuclear capacity
  • Rising electricity demand from data centers and electrification

As demand grows, securing a reliable uranium supply becomes increasingly important.

uranium demand and supply UEC

Reducing Import Risk: A Strategic Domestic Supply Push

The Burke Hollow project also addresses a major vulnerability in U.S. energy policy. The country currently imports about 95% of its uranium needs, leaving it exposed to global supply risks.

A large share of uranium production and enrichment capacity is concentrated in a few countries, including Russia and Kazakhstan. This concentration has raised concerns about supply disruptions and geopolitical risk.

uranium production US 2025 EIA

By expanding domestic production, UEC is helping to reduce reliance on imports and strengthen the U.S. nuclear fuel supply chain.

The company’s broader strategy includes building a vertically integrated platform covering mining, processing, and, eventually, uranium conversion. This approach aligns with U.S. government efforts to rebuild domestic nuclear fuel capabilities.

Federal programs have allocated billions to boost uranium production and enrichment. This shows how important the sector is.

Two Hubs, One Strategy: Wyoming Supports the Texas Breakthrough

While Burke Hollow is the main focus, UEC’s Christensen Ranch operation in Wyoming remains an important part of its production base.

The Wyoming site has recently received approvals for expanded wellfield development, allowing it to increase output alongside the Texas operation.

Together, the two sites form the foundation of UEC’s dual-hub production model. However, it is the Texas project that marks the first new U.S. uranium mine in over a decade, making it the central milestone in the company’s growth strategy.

Investor Momentum Builds Around Uranium Revival

The restart of U.S. uranium production is drawing strong attention from investors and industry players. Uranium markets have tightened in recent years, driven by rising demand and limited new supply.

UEC’s production launch has already had a positive market impact. The company’s share price rose following the announcement, reflecting investor confidence in its growth strategy.

UEC stock price

At the same time, utilities are increasing long-term contracting activity to secure fuel supply. This trend is expected to continue as new nuclear capacity comes online and existing plants extend operations.

Industry forecasts suggest that uranium demand will remain strong through the 2030s, supporting higher prices and increased investment in new production.

Lower Impact Mining, Higher ESG Expectations

The use of ISR mining at Burke Hollow reflects a broader shift toward more sustainable extraction methods. ISR typically reduces land disturbance and avoids large-scale excavation.

However, environmental management remains critical. Key issues include groundwater protection, chemical use, and long-term site restoration.

UEC has emphasized environmental controls and regulatory compliance in its operations. These efforts are important for maintaining social license and meeting ESG expectations.

From a climate perspective, uranium production plays an indirect but important role. Supporting nuclear energy, it helps enable low-carbon electricity generation and reduces reliance on fossil fuels.

The Bottom Line: A Defining Moment for U.S. Uranium Production

The launch of the Burke Hollow mine marks a major milestone for the U.S. uranium sector. It ends a decade-long gap in new mine development and signals renewed momentum in domestic production.

In the short term, it strengthens supply and supports rising uranium markets. In the long term, it highlights the growing role of nuclear energy in global decarbonization strategies.

UEC’s Burke Hollow shows that new uranium projects can advance in today’s market. There are still challenges, like scaling production and handling environmental risks, but progress is possible.

As demand for nuclear energy continues to grow, domestic projects like Burke Hollow will play a key role in shaping the future of energy security and low-carbon power.

The post U.S. Uranium Mining Returns: UEC Launches First New Mine in a Decade appeared first on Carbon Credits.

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