Limiting warming to 2C above pre-industrial temperatures may not be enough to prevent “extreme global climate outcomes”, according to research published in Nature.
The authors simulate climate extremes – such as drought in breadbasket regions and flooding in populated areas – under a 2C warming scenario using a range of different global climate models.
They find that the “worst-case” model projections in a 2C warmer world are often more severe than the “average” scenarios in a 3C or 4C warmer world.
An author on the study tells Carbon Brief that, for policymakers planning around risk, it is “really important” to account for these potential extremes at 2C.
The findings are “sobering” and “demonstrate that the risks at 2C of global warming may be significantly higher than previously thought”, according to one scientist who was not involved in the study.
He adds that the methods used in the research would “offer a very useful contribution” to any future “global assessment of avoidable climate-change risks”.
High-risk scenarios
As the planet warms, climate extremes such as floods and droughts are becoming more intense and frequent. For policymakers to effectively plan and adapt to upcoming changes, they need to understand how severe these events could become.
Scientists routinely use global climate models to simulate how extremes may change over the coming decades. One well-established way to present these results is to run simulations using multiple models, then take the average of these results.
This average is known as the “multimodel mean”. Model results typically cluster around the mean, giving scientists more confidence in these results, but there are often also individual projections that sit notably higher or lower.
Prof Erich Fischer is a lecturer in environmental systems science at ETH Zurich and an author on the paper. He tells Carbon Brief that focusing on the multimodel mean is a “very valuable” communication tool for climate scientists, providing a “simpler” message than showing the full range of results.
For example, he tells Carbon Brief that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) – the world’s most authoritative source on climate change – uses the multimodel mean to produce many of its maps.
However, Fischer warns that from a “risk perspective”, focusing solely on the multimodel mean could give a “misleading picture”. For example, he adds, the changes that specific regions may see could be “much, much higher” than the global average.
He tells Carbon Brief that for policymakers planning around risk, it is “really important” to account for more extreme cases too.
To demonstrate this, the study authors select 42 models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6). These are the models that are used most widely in the latest set of IPCC reports.
Their approach is illustrated in the diagram below. Note that this illustration is not based on real model runs, but is intended to give an example of what a set of results could look like.
The beige strip on the right shows the spread of results, where each horizontal bar indicates a different model. The models simulating the “worst-case” outcomes (red lines) are at the top and those showing the “best-case” climate outcomes (blue lines) are at the bottom. The majority of models are clustered towards the centre of the bar, close to the multimodel mean (thick black line).
The authors selected three types of events to analyse:
- Rainfall extremes in highly populated areas, which may induce flooding
- Concurrent droughts in global breadbaskets, which threaten food security
- Fire weather extremes across the world’s forests
For each event type, the authors assess the spread of results. They rank the model outputs by the severity of each type of event and compare these to the multimodel mean at different levels of warming – including 2C, 3C and 4C above pre-industrial temperatures.
In many instances, the “worst-case climate outcomes” in a 2C world are more severe than the multimodel mean in a 3C or 4C world.
Prof Rowan Sutton, director of the Met Office Hadley Centre, who was not involved in the study, tells Carbon Brief that the study’s findings are “sobering”. He adds that the paper “demonstrates that the risks at 2C of global warming may be significantly higher than previously thought”.
In its latest assessment report, the IPCC projected that, under current policies, the world could reach 2C of warming between 2037 and 2084, with a central estimate of 2052. (For more on when the IPCC says warming thresholds will be passed, read Carbon Brief’s explainer.)
Breadbasket drought
The analysis of drought in key breadbasket regions provided the “most striking results”, Dr Emanuele Bevacqua, a researcher at the Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research and lead author of the study, tells Carbon Brief.
To assess the worst-case scenario, the authors simulated drought frequency in “critical breadbasket areas across the world”, he explains.
These are the regions where most of the world’s maize, wheat, soybean and rice is grown, including regions of northern and southern America, Europe, south-eastern Asia and Australia.
The spread of model results is shown below.
The vertical bars indicate the percentage change in average drought frequency between a pre-industrial and 2C warmer world, where more-frequent drought is at the top of the bar and less-frequent drought is at the bottom.
On the left bar, each horizontal line indicates one model. The models showing the “worst-case climate outcomes” are highlighted at the top of the bar. On the right bar, the horizontal bars show the multimodel means for warming levels of 2C, 2.5C, 3C and 4C.
The percentage change in drought frequency in key breadbasket regions between a pre-industrial and 2C warmer world. On the beige bar (left), each horizontal line indicates a model. On the grey bar (right), the horizontal bars show the multimodel means for warming levels of 2C, 2.5C, 3C and 4C. Source: Bevacqua et al. (2026)
They find that 10 of the 42 models simulate a level of drought frequency at a 2C warming level that is higher than the multimodel mean at 4C warming.
(Some models also project a lower level of drought frequency at 2C warming than the multimodel mean. However, the focus of the study is to capture the most severe risks, which are particularly relevant for risk management.)
Bevacqua tells Carbon Brief that this result “makes it very clear that even if we stop [warming] at 2C, we cannot rule out the fact that we might end up in a worst-case outcome”.
The authors also conduct their analysis for extreme rainfall in populated regions. Although they find a wide range of model results, none of the simulations of extreme rainfall at 2C are higher than the multimodal mean at 4C.
Meanwhile, analysing the risk of wildfires to the world’s forests reveals that four of the models simulate more severe fire risk at 2C than the multimodel mean at 3C and none simulate more severe fire risk at 2C than at 4C.
The spread of model results for rainfall (left) and wildfire (right) are shown below.
Dr Karen McKinnon is an associate professor in statistics and the environment at the University of California, Los Angeles. McKinnon, who was not involved in the study, tells Carbon Brief that the study highlights that “risks are obscured when considering averages across multiple climate models”.
‘Worst-case scenarios’
The authors find that the ranking of models was different across the three case studies. In other words, the same models did not produce the “worst-case” climate outcomes in every type of event.
When assessing the impact of future extremes, the findings emphasise the need to select models that “sample the full range of possible climate outcomes”, the paper says. It adds:
“Currently, large-scale initiatives such as the latest protocol of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) rely on a limited subset of climate models that likely omits the best- and worst-case climate models.”
ISIMIP is a global modelling effort to project the impacts of climate change across different sectors. Bevacqua notes:
“[O]ur results suggest that ISIMIP-based simulations probably underestimate the range of possible global impacts at a fixed global warming level of +2C.”
He adds:
“This is worrying and calls for new approaches that can somehow lead to accounting for this.”
The study also shows that many “best-case” model outcomes for a 2C world project a lower level of risk than the multimodel mean. However, Fischer notes that “even the best-case scenario” shows that extremes will become more severe with warming.
Fischer says that the study authors are not “doomscrolling” and notes that “landing somewhere in the middle is still the more likely outcome”. However, he emphasises the importance of considering the high-impact model outcomes for planning around risk.
Communicating risk
Climate scientists and policymakers have been discussing how best to assess and communicate climate risk for decades.
Dr Robert Vautard – senior climate scientist at France’s National Centre for Scientific Research at Institut Pierre-Simon Laplac, who was not involved in the study – tells Carbon Brief that the study provides “very insightful examples of outcomes for communicating risks”.
However, he questions whether the “global indices” used in this study would be relevant for developing “regional” adaptation plans, noting that worst-case impacts in the model “may not be the most problematic locally”.
Last month, a group of leading climate scientists published a comment article – also in Nature – calling for a global climate risk assessment that identifies the “worst-case scenarios” and helps societies to prepare for them.
The article says:
“Global assessments made by IPCC have played, and continue to play, a crucial part in assessing the evidence about climate change. But the IPCC produces science assessments, rather than risk assessments. Its main focus has been to set out what is known with the greatest confidence.
“A climate risk assessment offers different information – it makes clear the scale and severity of risks, to inform judgments about the priority to be given to avoiding or mitigating them.”
Sutton, the Hadley Centre director, is an author on the article. He tells Carbon Brief that “from a policy and decision-making perspective, climate change is a problem of risk assessment and risk management”.
He says that the methods used in this study “offer a very useful contribution to a global assessment of avoidable climate-change risks”.
The post Limiting global warming to 2C would not ‘rule out’ extreme impacts appeared first on Carbon Brief.
Limiting global warming to 2C would not ‘rule out’ extreme impacts
Climate Change
FLIP OFF WOODSIDE TO SAVE SCOTT REEF: Greenpeace, Michael Caton, Thinkerbell mobilise Australia to challenge gas project at Scott Reef
6 November 2026
Greenpeace Australia Pacific has joined forces with Thinkerbell and iconic Australian actor Michael Caton on a major public movement and behaviour change initiative to save Scott Reef, calling on Australians to “flip off” gas corporation Woodside. The company plans to drill for gas at Australia’s largest oceanic reef, home to vulnerable green sea turtles, endangered pygmy blue whales, and thousands of marine species, off the coast of Western Australia.
WATCH THE FULL VIDEO HERE
At the heart of the collaboration is somebody who knows a thing or two about fighting off corporations to protect a home: Michael Caton. Set in a courtroom, Caton gives his voice to a voiceless inhabitant, a green sea turtle, and together they invite the public to show their support to save Scott Reef.
Designed to shift public behaviour and drive national debate, the movement asks the public to tag their MPs – applying direct political pressure on Environment Minister Murray Watt and Prime Minister Albanese Albanese to “flip off” Woodside’s dirty gas project, which would see up to 57 toxic wells drilled around Scott Reef off the coast of Western Australia.
Voiced by Michael Caton and set to a soundtrack provided by Radiohead, the narrative centres on our hero turtle defending her home from corporate overreach in a courtroom showdown. As the turtle defiantly flips her flippers at Woodside, Michael Caton calls on everyday Australians to take a stand and help save her home.
Michael Caton said: “I’m proud to lend my voice to Greenpeace to help save Scott Reef. The marine life out there can’t speak up, so we need to. Some things are too precious to risk.”
Glenn Walker, Head of Nature at Greenpeace Australia Pacific, added: “Woodside’s dirty gas project at Scott Reef, Australia’s largest oceanic reef, is an environmental disaster waiting to happen, threatening thousands of species, including the extremely vulnerable green sea turtles that nest there. By literally flipping off Woodside and Big Gas, Aussies are cutting through corporate spin and sending an unignorable message to Environment Minister Murray Watt and the Albanese government: save Scott Reef.”
Adam Ferrier, co-founder of Thinkerbell, said: “You can fight a corporation in the courtroom forever, but the real power to deliver lasting protection rests in parliament. Right now, our MPs hold an extraordinary opportunity to safeguard Scott Reef for generations to come. I’m proudly from WA, and I know how much the natural environment means to the people and economy of Western Australia. I’m also sure Woodside wants to do the right thing, and with enough public support and government action we’ll together save Scott Reef.
Paul Swann, Chief Creative Tinker at Thinkerbell notes: “When the stakes are this high, polite ads don’t work. You need an unignorable provocation that galvanises people and puts the pressure squarely where it belongs, on our leaders in Canberra. This isn’t just about protecting a reef; it’s about holding power to account.”
Greenpeace has been campaigning to stop Woodside’s dirty gas plans for years, increasing pressure on the Australian government to save Scott Reef from becoming an industrialised gas zone. From actions aboard Woodside’s gas platform to cinemas across Australia, Greenpeace isn’t backing off in their advocacy to save Scott Reef.
Rolling out across OOH, digital, social and cinema with an interactive landing page, this project will be amplified by high-profile figures urging Australians to take action, tag their MPs, and defend Scott Reef. The movement combines cinematic storytelling with organic social mobilsation and earned media, planned via Thinkerbell’s Alchemy model to drive real behaviour change and impact.
Marking their first Australian tour in 15 years, English rock band Radiohead will play 16 arena shows across Perth, Melbourne and Sydney in May and June 2027. A $2 donation is included in every ticket price with proceeds going to Greenpeace Australia Pacific and the Australian Marine Conservation Society. Radiohead will match the final amount raised.
ENDS
WATCH NOW:
FOR ASSETS OR MORE INFORMATION, PLEASE CONTACT:
Adam Ferrier | 0413 633 344 | adamferrier@thinkerbell.com
Kimberley Bernard | 0407 581 404 | kbernard@greenpeace.org
ABOUT THINKERBELL
Thinkerbell is a 9-year-old independent creative company. We practise Measured Magic – the coming together of marketing science and hardcore creativity – to help our clients build their brands and change behaviour.
ABOUT GREENPEACE
Greenpeace Australia Pacific is a global independent campaigning organisation that uses peaceful protest and creative confrontation to expose environmental problems and promote solutions that are essential to a green and peaceful future.
Climate Change
Jimmy Barnes, King Gizz lead Aussie music supergroup on new release to save Scott Reef
SYDNEY, Monday 9 November 2026 — Australian music icons Jimmy Barnes AO, King Gizzard & the Lizard Wizard, Fred Leone, Gordi & Montaigne are among the more than 20 Australian artists who have joined forces to release a new song with an urgent message: save Scott Reef.
Released today, “If Not Now” is a reimagining of King Gizzard & the Lizard Wizard’s Environmental Music Prize-winning song “If Not Now, Then When?”, and is a collaboration between Greenpeace Australia Pacific, Green Music Australia, and p(doom) Records.
Scott Reef is a 15-million-year-old ancient coral reef located 270 kilometres off the Kimberley coast of Western Australia. It is Australia’s largest oceanic reef and is home to thousands of marine animals and endangered species, but fossil fuel corporation Woodside plans to drill up to 57 toxic wells under and around the reef, threatening to turn it into an industrial gas zone.
“If Not Now” is the reef’s first and only release, out on all digital platforms and on limited edition 7” vinyl. The song is accompanied by cover art and visualiser from acclaimed Australian artist and ARIA-winning music video director Jonathan Zawada (Flume, The Avalanches).
Speaking about the track, Stu Mackenzie (lead singer, King Gizzard & the Lizard Wizard) said: “Why are we still digging up coal and gas? Why are we allowing this? Why is the Australian government so hell-bent on destroying our beautiful wild and untouched places? I’m proud that a King Gizz song was chosen to represent a growing movement of people who are asking these questions and applying pressure. Let’s shut it down and keep it beautiful.”
Rock legend Jimmy Barnes AO said: “Scott Reef is one of the few pristine reefs left in the world and it happens to be on our doorstep. We’re custodians of it — we’re supposed to be looking after it. It’s ridiculous. We must protect our country and look after what we value most, which is the nature and the beauty of this country.”
Hannah Schuch, Senior Campaigner for Greenpeace Australia Pacific, said: “I’m filled with hope by the incredible musicians and artists who are using their voices and skills to amplify the voices of half a million Australians who are calling on the government to stop Woodside’s nature and climate-wrecking gas plans and save Scott Reef. Australian music has long been a powerful catalyst for change, so saving Scott Reef is a no-brainer for Australian music lovers.”
Contributing artists (in alphabetic order):
- Alex Lahey
- Brinkley Davies (marine biologist/freediver)
- Birdland
- Close Counters
- DOBBY
- Fred Leone (Artist of the Year at the 2026 NIMAs, singing in Butculla)
- Gordi
- John Butler
- Jimmy Barnes
- King Gizzard & the Lizard Wizard
- Leah Senior
- Mahalia Barnes
- Montaigne
- Ngaiire
- NIDALA
- Peppa Lane (Spacey Jane)
- Ruby Rodgers (2026 Environmental Music Prize winner)
- Terry Guyula (Drifting Clouds, singing in Yolgu Matha)
- Tom Mahler (The Moving Stills)
- Urthboy
Production cast:
- Becki Whitton (G Flip, Allday, Stella Donnelly)
- Stu McKenzie (King Gizzard & the Lizard Wizard)
- Tay Blunt (FVNERAL)
- Tim Shiel (Green Music Australia)
Three generations of the Barnes family, Jimmy Barnes, his daughter, Mahalia Barnes and granddaughter Ruby Rodgers, contributed to the track.
The release comes amid growing national pressure on the Federal Government to save Scott Reef from Woodside’s gas drilling plans.
Last week, a leaked letter from WA’s environmental watchdog to Woodside revealed the agency deemed drilling risks to Scott Reef ‘serious, significant and irreversible’, while Greenpeace Australia Pacific activists occupied a major Woodside gas platform, and Perth communities delivered one of the biggest environmental petitions in Australia’s history to Woodside HQ.
The Federal Government is expected to make a decision on Woodside’s Scott Reef drilling plans in the coming months.
-ENDS-
Media contact
To arrange an interview or for more information, contact Emma Sangalli on 0431 513 465 or emma.sangalli@greenpeace.org
High res images and footage of Scott Reef can be found here (NEW) and here.
Jimmy Barnes, King Gizz lead Aussie music supergroup on new release to save Scott Reef
What might a high-school course look like if it helped students understand climate change—and see a place for themselves in responding to it?
Not simply a course about emissions or environmental problems. A course that connects science with the places students know, the decisions their communities face, and the work they might one day do.
Canadian schools already teach climate change and environmental responsibility, including through required curriculum expectations. Ontario’s Grade 9 science course, for example, asks students to assess climate change’s effects on ecosystems and communities, including First Nations, Métis, and Inuit communities. Across Canada, however, the depth and placement of climate learning vary, and opportunities for more specialized study often sit within elective courses.
Part 1 explored how we could build on that foundation through sustained learning from elementary school onward, shaped with First Nations, Inuit, and Métis governments, educators, and education authorities.
One next step worth considering is a required senior-secondary course that brings these threads together. Imagine a course called Climate, Land, and Future Economies: a place to explore climate evidence, community resilience, Indigenous governance, practical solutions, and the possibilities of a changing world.
The idea is not to turn every student into a climate scientist. It is to give every student a stronger foundation for the choices ahead—whether their path leads to university, college, an apprenticeship, employment, entrepreneurship, public service, or work within their own Nation or community.
Start with the science—and make room for questions
A meaningful course would begin with sound science: how the greenhouse effect works, how carbon moves through living systems, how energy choices affect emissions, and how scientists study a changing climate.
But the learning could become more engaging when students have an opportunity to investigate questions close to home.
What can local weather records tell us? How do we distinguish a single unusual season from a longer-term trend? What does a climate projection mean for a community planning its roads, housing, or water systems? What can a dataset tell us—and what remains outside its scope?
These questions invite students into the process of understanding evidence rather than asking them simply to memorize conclusions.
They also create space to discuss uncertainty honestly. Students could explore how researchers reach conclusions, why findings sometimes change, and how to distinguish a legitimate scientific question from a misleading claim.
The aim would be informed curiosity: the confidence to ask good questions, find credible information, and explain what the evidence supports.
Look at climate through the life of a community
Climate learning becomes more meaningful when it moves beyond global averages and into the places people live.
A class might explore a neigh