India has unveiled long-awaited climate goals that aim to cut the carbon intensity of its economy, plant trees and expand clean electricity capacity.

The targets, approved by India’s government on Wednesday, will form the basis of the country’s nationally determined contribution (NDC), which it failed to submit by last year’s deadline.

The headline target to reduce greenhouse gas emissions per unit of GDP by 47% by 2035 from 2005 levels, represents only a slight improvement on India’s previous goal to reduce its carbon intensity 45% by 2030.

The government also set a goal for non-fossil fuels to account for 60% of electricity generation capacity by 2035, and approved targets for carbon sinks.

Reactions from analysts were generally positive. Avantika Goswami, climate lead at the Centre for Science and Environment think tank, said that the targets show “India is pulling more than its weight given its minimal historical contribution to emissions” despite “backtracking” from developed countries.

But Lauri Myllyvirta, lead analyst at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, said the targets are too easy to meet as they “underestimate the country’s potential for transformative clean energy growth”.

Emissions intensity target

Most countries set targets to reduce their absolute emissions levels by a certain percentage by a particular year. But several major developing countries – like China and India – aim instead to reduce their emissions per unit of economic activity, allowing the economy to grow without making the target harder to meet.

In its statement, the government said that India had reduced its emissions intensity by 36%, from 2005 levels, by 2020. It aims to build on this by setting a target to reduce intensity by 47% by 2035.

Myllyvirta warned that the target allows for India’s emissions growth to accelerate compared with past rates if the country achieves its GDP growth projections. But he added that “India’s booming clean energy industry is highly likely to deliver much faster progress than policymakers were prepared to commit to today”.

Clean electricity target

The government set a target for non-fossil fuels to provide 60% of the country’s electricity generation capacity by 2035.

Railways minister Ashwini Vaishnaw acknowledged that the 60% non-fossil capacity target was “very easily” achievable, noting that India had already reached 52%. Myllyvirta agreed, predicting the threshold would be crossed by 2030, five years early.

Ulka Kelkar, executive programme director at World Resources Institute India, said it was “heartening” that India’s domestic electricity plan has a more ambitious target – 70% by 2035 – than it is committing to internationally.

Wind and, particularly, solar power have boomed in India over the last decade, while hydropower and, to a lesser extent nuclear energy, continue to provide a steady level of electricity.

The fossil fuel half of India’s electricity capacity is overwhelmingly provided by coal-fired power stations, tapping into the country’s abundant domestic coal reserves. Gas provides a much smaller share of electricity.

Carbon sink target

The third target approved on Wednesday is to increase India’s carbon sink, through trees and forests, by 3.5-4 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent by 2035 from 2005 levels.

The government said the sink had already grown by 2.29 billion tonnes by 2021. This means the target could be met even if the pace of increase slows.

Aarti Khosla, director of Indian research and consultancy group Climate Trends, said this target “reinforces the country’s commitment to nature-based solutions”.

Souparna Lahiri, from the Climate Land Ambition and Rights Alliance, told Climate Home News that the target was “not unexpected” as India has always had “massive” forest-growing programmes as well as social forestry.

He highlighted the CAMPA mechanism, which requires developers who clear forests in one area to plant replacement trees elsewhere, as a key driver of new planting, but cautioned that plantations must be monitored to ensure the trees actually survive.

Other NDCs still outstanding

The approval of the targets comes at the same time as the Paris Agreement’s Implementation and Compliance Committee meets in Bonn to discuss how to encourage governments to submit their overdue NDCs. India was the biggest-emitter yet to do so.

Harjeet Singh, director of the Satat Sampada Climate Foundation, said that “while the global community has waited with bated breath for this announcement, the result is a clear signal of integrity and commitment”.

“As a global economic powerhouse, India can further accelerate its domestic efforts if the developed world meets its obligation to provide adequate climate finance, ensuring that India’s success becomes the world’s success”, he added.

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India sets achievable green electricity and emissions intensity targets