Al-Karim Govindji is the global head of public affairs for energy systems at DNV, an independent assurance and risk management provider, operating in more than 100 countries.
Optimism that this year may be less eventful than those that have preceded it have already been dealt a big blow – and we’re just weeks into 2026. Events in Venezuela, protests in Iran and a potential diplomatic crisis over Greenland all spell a continuation of the unpredictability that has now become the norm.
As is so often the case, it is impossible to separate energy and the industry that provides it from the geopolitical incidents shaping the future. Increasingly we hear the phrase ‘the past is a foreign country’, but for those working in oil and gas, offshore wind, and everything in between, this sentiment rings truer every day. More than 10 years on from the signing of the Paris Agreement, the sector and the world around it is unrecognisable.
The decade has, to date, been defined by a gritty reality – geopolitical friction, trade barriers and shifting domestic priorities – and amidst policy reversals in major economies, it is tempting to conclude that the transition is stalling.
Truth, however, is so often found in the numbers – and DNV’s Energy Transition Outlook 2025 should act as a tonic for those feeling downhearted about the state of play.
While the transition is becoming more fragmented and slower than required, it is being propelled by a new, powerful logic found at the intersection between national energy security and unbeatable renewable economics.
A diverging global trajectory
The transition is no longer a single, uniform movement; rather, we are seeing a widening “execution gap” between mature technologies and those still finding their feet. Driven by China’s massive industrial scaling, solar PV, onshore wind and battery storage have reached a price point where they are virtually unstoppable.
These variable renewables are projected to account for 32% of global power by 2030, surging to over half of the world’s electricity by 2040. This shift signals the end of coal and gas dominance, with the fossil fuel share of the power sector expected to collapse from 59% today to just 4% by 2060.
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Climate at Davos: Clean tech powers on despite policy wobbles
Al Gore says climate policy may be suffering “a recession” in many countries – but the energy transition continues apace, driven by falling costs for renewables and batteries -
Climate at Davos: Energy security in the geopolitical driving seat
While climate change is a lower priority for leaders at this year’s World Economic Forum, control of energy supplies and minerals is a hot topic
Conversely, technologies that require heavy subsidies or consistent long-term policy, the likes of hydrogen derivatives (ammonia and methanol), floating wind and carbon capture, are struggling to gain traction.
Our forecast for hydrogen’s share in the 2050 energy mix has been downgraded from 4.8% to 3.5% over the last three years, as large-scale commercialisation for these “hard-to-abate” solutions is pushed back into the 2040s.
Regional friction and the security paradigm
Policy volatility remains a significant risk to transition timelines across the globe, most notably in North America. Recently we have seen the US pivot its policy to favour fossil fuel promotion, something that is only likely to increase under the current administration.
Invariably this creates measurable drag, with our research suggesting the region will emit 500-1,000 Mt more CO₂ annually through 2050 than previously projected.
China, conversely, continues to shatter energy transition records, installing over half of the world’s solar and 60% of its wind capacity.
In Europe and Asia, energy policy is increasingly viewed through the lens of sovereignty; renewables are no longer just ‘green’, they are ‘domestic’, ‘indigenous’, ‘homegrown’. They offer a way to reduce reliance on volatile international fuel markets and protect industrial competitiveness.
Grids and the AI variable
As we move toward a future where electricity’s share of energy demand doubles to 43% by 2060, we are hitting a physical wall, namely the power grid.
In Europe, this ‘gridlock’ is already a much-discussed issue and without faster infrastructure expansion, wind and solar deployment will be constrained by 8% and 16% respectively by 2035.
Comment: To break its coal habit, China should look to California’s progress on batteries
This pressure is compounded by the rise of Artificial Intelligence (AI). While AI will represent only 3% of global electricity use by 2040, its concentration in North American data centres means it will consume a staggering 12% of the region’s power demand.
This localized hunger for power threatens to slow the retirement of fossil fuel plants as utilities struggle to meet surging base-load requirements.
The offshore resurgence
Despite recent headlines regarding supply chain inflation and project cancellations, the long-term outlook for offshore energy remains robust.
We anticipate a strong resurgence post-2030 as costs stabilise and supply chains mature, positioning offshore wind as a central pillar of energy-secure systems.
Governments defend clean energy transition as US snubs renewables agency
A new trend is also emerging in behind-the-meter offshore power, where hybrid floating platforms that combine wind and solar will power subsea operations and maritime hubs, effectively bypassing grid bottlenecks while decarbonising oil and gas infrastructure.
2.2C – a reality check
Global CO₂ emissions are finally expected to have peaked in 2025, but the descent will be gradual.
On our current path, the 1.5C carbon budget will be exhausted by 2029, leading the world toward 2.2C of warming by the end of the century.
Still, the transition is not failing – but it is changing shape, moving away from a policy-led “green dream” toward a market-led “industrial reality”.
For the ocean and energy sectors, the strategy for the next decade is clear. Scale the technologies that are winning today, aggressively unblock the infrastructure bottlenecks of tomorrow, and plan for a future that will, once again, look wholly different.
The post For proof of the energy transition’s resilience, look at what it’s up against appeared first on Climate Home News.
For proof of the energy transition’s resilience, look at what it’s up against
COP31 has finally kicked off in the sunny seaside resort of Antalya – at least for those lucky enough to have made it through the long queues snaking around the sprawling expo centre where the UN climate conference is taking place.
The joint COP presidents, Türkiye’s Murat Kurum and Australia’s Chris Bowen, have presented their priorities to fellow diplomats – including a new goal on electrification, the establishment of a just transition mechanism and better access to climate finance – before the negotiations begin in earnest.
Kurum announced that issues around the summit’s agenda had been resolved over the weekend. African countries had pushed for additional items on adaptation finance and trade, while Nepal wanted formal discussions on mountain issues in the wake of the devastating flooding disaster that struck the country.
Agreement was reached to drop the African request after late-night talks, with a view to continuing discussions on finance elsewhere such as in a dedicated work programme. Mountains and climate change will become a regular agenda item in the UN climate process with fresh dialogues planned on the topic.
COP31 Briefing: What to expect from the Antalya climate summit?
In his speech to the opening plenary, Australia’s environment minister Chris Bowen, who will preside over the negotiations in Antalya, outlined the COP co-presidents’ expectations for the cover decision that will offer a summary of the talks’ main achievements.
“There will be no surprises. This is not about duplicating negotiations. It will not be a lengthy political declaration, but a focused, practical, concrete response to the challenges and opportunities before us,” Bowen said.
It will be “a decision that reflects the urgency of the climate challenge and the enormous opportunities created by the global transition. One that gives confidence to governments, investors, businesses, communities that the world is moving faster and working together,” he added.
UN: El Niño unleashing heat from hottest oceans ever measured
As diplomats gather in Antalya, a new sobering update on the state of the Earth’s climate from the UN’s weather agency should focus minds.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) says the world’s oceans now hold more heat than ever measured. A rapidly strengthening El Niño is releasing some of that heat into the atmosphere, pushing temperatures higher on a planet already baked by human-caused climate change.
“El Niño and indeed the state of the global climate in 2026 gives new meaning to the phrase off the charts,” said the WMO’s Secretary General Celeste Saulo. “El Niño doesn’t add new heat to the planet. It releases heat from the ocean, which is the warmest ever measured. There is simply more heat available to release.”
The UN agency says 2026 is on track to be one of the four warmest years on record globally. That would make 2023 to 2026 the four hottest years in 177 years of observations. The global average temperature from January to September was 1.47°C above pre-industrial levels, just below 2024’s record of 1.55°C. The agency expects the final figure for the year to be higher as one of the strongest El Niños on record takes hold.
The current El Niño – a naturally occurring climate pattern – is expected to peak in December and continue until at least February 2027. As a result, the WMO expects global average temperatures to remain “exceptionally” high through late 2026 and into early 2027.
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National climate plans now promise half the emission cuts expected by UN
The US exit from the Paris Agreement and weak new pledges leave 2035 emissions just 6% below 2019 levels, against 12% projected last year -
Tensions set to flare over trade at COP31 as China makes it a priority
After difficult talks in Belém last year, trade is likely to remain a sticking point at COP31 despite Brazil’s efforts to contain the issue to a series of dialogues
Bill Hare, CEO of the global science and policy institute Climate Analytics, said that while El Niño will command the headlines, “no one should be in any doubt that the bigger villain is man-made climate change”.
According to the WMO, El Niño typically adds around 0.1–0.2°C to annual global average temperatures. That is a fraction of the warming of more than 1.4°C recorded last year, which is primarily caused by greenhouse gas emissions mainly from burning fossil fuels.
UN boss António Guterres said a “supersized El Niño is colliding with a planet already superheated by manmade climate change”.
“Leaders must get serious by cutting emissions faster, accelerating a just transition from fossil fuels and delivering the finance and protection vulnerable countries need, “ he added.
At the COP31 opening ceremony, a Turkish promotional video struck a suitably apocalyptic note, implying that while nature and life on the planet will continue, humanity may not be a part of it unless countries choose to step up action to curb global warming.
IPCC chief urges governments to decide on report timeline
The chair of the world’s top climate science body has urged governments to take a long-delayed decision on when its next reports should be published so that they can steer climate action.
“Climate action without climate science is rather like a ship without a rudder,” said Jim Skea, the chair of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
He told the opening session of COP31 that the IPCC “faces operational challenges and reputational risks from the current impasse on the timeline for our three working group reports”.
Since 2024, governments have been unable to agree on whether the AR7 set of reports should be published before or after the next Global Stocktake (GST) of national climate plans in late 2028.
If the flagship reports are published before, they can feed into the agreed response to the second GST. At COP28, the first GST outcome included the landmark commitment to transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems.
Europe, small islands and the least developed countries, plus many Latin American and developed nations, want the IPCC to meet the deadline to inform the second GST.
But around a dozen developing countries plus Russia – led by India and Saudi Arabia – have argued that the reports should come later in order to allow for greater research input from the Global South.
After talks failed and were suspended last month, governments and IPCC scientists will try again to resolve the issue in virtual talks beginning on December 1.
Despite this disagreement among governments, Skea said the IPCC’s “scientific engine room is humming with activity” as scientists continue their work. But, as they are unpaid for their IPCC work, they are finding it increasingly difficult to find time for it alongside their “busy professional and personal lives”.
“In my early days in IPCC, we could plan our meetings literally years ahead. Now our authors don’t know what is expected of them in the early months of 2027,” he lamented.
The post COP31 Bulletin Day 1: Australia says cover decision won’t bring “surprises” appeared first on Climate Home News.
COP31 Bulletin Day 1: Australia says cover decision won’t bring “surprises”
Climate Change
FLIP OFF WOODSIDE TO SAVE SCOTT REEF: Greenpeace, Michael Caton, Thinkerbell mobilise Australia to challenge gas project at Scott Reef
6 November 2026
Greenpeace Australia Pacific has joined forces with Thinkerbell and iconic Australian actor Michael Caton on a major public movement and behaviour change initiative to save Scott Reef, calling on Australians to “flip off” gas corporation Woodside. The company plans to drill for gas at Australia’s largest oceanic reef, home to vulnerable green sea turtles, endangered pygmy blue whales, and thousands of marine species, off the coast of Western Australia.
WATCH THE FULL VIDEO HERE
At the heart of the collaboration is somebody who knows a thing or two about fighting off corporations to protect a home: Michael Caton. Set in a courtroom, Caton gives his voice to a voiceless inhabitant, a green sea turtle, and together they invite the public to show their support to save Scott Reef.
Designed to shift public behaviour and drive national debate, the movement asks the public to tag their MPs – applying direct political pressure on Environment Minister Murray Watt and Prime Minister Albanese Albanese to “flip off” Woodside’s dirty gas project, which would see up to 57 toxic wells drilled around Scott Reef off the coast of Western Australia.
Voiced by Michael Caton and set to a soundtrack provided by Radiohead, the narrative centres on our hero turtle defending her home from corporate overreach in a courtroom showdown. As the turtle defiantly flips her flippers at Woodside, Michael Caton calls on everyday Australians to take a stand and help save her home.
Michael Caton said: “I’m proud to lend my voice to Greenpeace to help save Scott Reef. The marine life out there can’t speak up, so we need to. Some things are too precious to risk.”
Glenn Walker, Head of Nature at Greenpeace Australia Pacific, added: “Woodside’s dirty gas project at Scott Reef, Australia’s largest oceanic reef, is an environmental disaster waiting to happen, threatening thousands of species, including the extremely vulnerable green sea turtles that nest there. By literally flipping off Woodside and Big Gas, Aussies are cutting through corporate spin and sending an unignorable message to Environment Minister Murray Watt and the Albanese government: save Scott Reef.”
Adam Ferrier, co-founder of Thinkerbell, said: “You can fight a corporation in the courtroom forever, but the real power to deliver lasting protection rests in parliament. Right now, our MPs hold an extraordinary opportunity to safeguard Scott Reef for generations to come. I’m proudly from WA, and I know how much the natural environment means to the people and economy of Western Australia. I’m also sure Woodside wants to do the right thing, and with enough public support and government action we’ll together save Scott Reef.
Paul Swann, Chief Creative Tinker at Thinkerbell notes: “When the stakes are this high, polite ads don’t work. You need an unignorable provocation that galvanises people and puts the pressure squarely where it belongs, on our leaders in Canberra. This isn’t just about protecting a reef; it’s about holding power to account.”
Greenpeace has been campaigning to stop Woodside’s dirty gas plans for years, increasing pressure on the Australian government to save Scott Reef from becoming an industrialised gas zone. From actions aboard Woodside’s gas platform to cinemas across Australia, Greenpeace isn’t backing off in their advocacy to save Scott Reef.
Rolling out across OOH, digital, social and cinema with an interactive landing page, this project will be amplified by high-profile figures urging Australians to take action, tag their MPs, and defend Scott Reef. The movement combines cinematic storytelling with organic social mobilsation and earned media, planned via Thinkerbell’s Alchemy model to drive real behaviour change and impact.
Marking their first Australian tour in 15 years, English rock band Radiohead will play 16 arena shows across Perth, Melbourne and Sydney in May and June 2027. A $2 donation is included in every ticket price with proceeds going to Greenpeace Australia Pacific and the Australian Marine Conservation Society. Radiohead will match the final amount raised.
ENDS
WATCH NOW:
FOR ASSETS OR MORE INFORMATION, PLEASE CONTACT:
Adam Ferrier | 0413 633 344 | adamferrier@thinkerbell.com
Kimberley Bernard | 0407 581 404 | kbernard@greenpeace.org
ABOUT THINKERBELL
Thinkerbell is a 9-year-old independent creative company. We practise Measured Magic – the coming together of marketing science and hardcore creativity – to help our clients build their brands and change behaviour.
ABOUT GREENPEACE
Greenpeace Australia Pacific is a global independent campaigning organisation that uses peaceful protest and creative confrontation to expose environmental problems and promote solutions that are essential to a green and peaceful future.
Climate Change
Jimmy Barnes, King Gizz lead Aussie music supergroup on new release to save Scott Reef
SYDNEY, Monday 9 November 2026 — Australian music icons Jimmy Barnes AO, King Gizzard & the Lizard Wizard, Fred Leone, Gordi & Montaigne are among the more than 20 Australian artists who have joined forces to release a new song with an urgent message: save Scott Reef.
Released today, “If Not Now” is a reimagining of King Gizzard & the Lizard Wizard’s Environmental Music Prize-winning song “If Not Now, Then When?”, and is a collaboration between Greenpeace Australia Pacific, Green Music Australia, and p(doom) Records.
Scott Reef is a 15-million-year-old ancient coral reef located 270 kilometres off the Kimberley coast of Western Australia. It is Australia’s largest oceanic reef and is home to thousands of marine animals and endangered species, but fossil fuel corporation Woodside plans to drill up to 57 toxic wells under and around the reef, threatening to turn it into an industrial gas zone.
“If Not Now” is the reef’s first and only release, out on all digital platforms and on limited edition 7” vinyl. The song is accompanied by cover art and visualiser from acclaimed Australian artist and ARIA-winning music video director Jonathan Zawada (Flume, The Avalanches).