Al-Karim Govindji is the global head of public affairs for energy systems at DNV, an independent assurance and risk management provider, operating in more than 100 countries.
Optimism that this year may be less eventful than those that have preceded it have already been dealt a big blow – and we’re just weeks into 2026. Events in Venezuela, protests in Iran and a potential diplomatic crisis over Greenland all spell a continuation of the unpredictability that has now become the norm.
As is so often the case, it is impossible to separate energy and the industry that provides it from the geopolitical incidents shaping the future. Increasingly we hear the phrase ‘the past is a foreign country’, but for those working in oil and gas, offshore wind, and everything in between, this sentiment rings truer every day. More than 10 years on from the signing of the Paris Agreement, the sector and the world around it is unrecognisable.
The decade has, to date, been defined by a gritty reality – geopolitical friction, trade barriers and shifting domestic priorities – and amidst policy reversals in major economies, it is tempting to conclude that the transition is stalling.
Truth, however, is so often found in the numbers – and DNV’s Energy Transition Outlook 2025 should act as a tonic for those feeling downhearted about the state of play.
While the transition is becoming more fragmented and slower than required, it is being propelled by a new, powerful logic found at the intersection between national energy security and unbeatable renewable economics.
A diverging global trajectory
The transition is no longer a single, uniform movement; rather, we are seeing a widening “execution gap” between mature technologies and those still finding their feet. Driven by China’s massive industrial scaling, solar PV, onshore wind and battery storage have reached a price point where they are virtually unstoppable.
These variable renewables are projected to account for 32% of global power by 2030, surging to over half of the world’s electricity by 2040. This shift signals the end of coal and gas dominance, with the fossil fuel share of the power sector expected to collapse from 59% today to just 4% by 2060.
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Climate at Davos: Clean tech powers on despite policy wobbles
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While climate change is a lower priority for leaders at this year’s World Economic Forum, control of energy supplies and minerals is a hot topic
Conversely, technologies that require heavy subsidies or consistent long-term policy, the likes of hydrogen derivatives (ammonia and methanol), floating wind and carbon capture, are struggling to gain traction.
Our forecast for hydrogen’s share in the 2050 energy mix has been downgraded from 4.8% to 3.5% over the last three years, as large-scale commercialisation for these “hard-to-abate” solutions is pushed back into the 2040s.
Regional friction and the security paradigm
Policy volatility remains a significant risk to transition timelines across the globe, most notably in North America. Recently we have seen the US pivot its policy to favour fossil fuel promotion, something that is only likely to increase under the current administration.
Invariably this creates measurable drag, with our research suggesting the region will emit 500-1,000 Mt more CO₂ annually through 2050 than previously projected.
China, conversely, continues to shatter energy transition records, installing over half of the world’s solar and 60% of its wind capacity.
In Europe and Asia, energy policy is increasingly viewed through the lens of sovereignty; renewables are no longer just ‘green’, they are ‘domestic’, ‘indigenous’, ‘homegrown’. They offer a way to reduce reliance on volatile international fuel markets and protect industrial competitiveness.
Grids and the AI variable
As we move toward a future where electricity’s share of energy demand doubles to 43% by 2060, we are hitting a physical wall, namely the power grid.
In Europe, this ‘gridlock’ is already a much-discussed issue and without faster infrastructure expansion, wind and solar deployment will be constrained by 8% and 16% respectively by 2035.
Comment: To break its coal habit, China should look to California’s progress on batteries
This pressure is compounded by the rise of Artificial Intelligence (AI). While AI will represent only 3% of global electricity use by 2040, its concentration in North American data centres means it will consume a staggering 12% of the region’s power demand.
This localized hunger for power threatens to slow the retirement of fossil fuel plants as utilities struggle to meet surging base-load requirements.
The offshore resurgence
Despite recent headlines regarding supply chain inflation and project cancellations, the long-term outlook for offshore energy remains robust.
We anticipate a strong resurgence post-2030 as costs stabilise and supply chains mature, positioning offshore wind as a central pillar of energy-secure systems.
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A new trend is also emerging in behind-the-meter offshore power, where hybrid floating platforms that combine wind and solar will power subsea operations and maritime hubs, effectively bypassing grid bottlenecks while decarbonising oil and gas infrastructure.
2.2C – a reality check
Global CO₂ emissions are finally expected to have peaked in 2025, but the descent will be gradual.
On our current path, the 1.5C carbon budget will be exhausted by 2029, leading the world toward 2.2C of warming by the end of the century.
Still, the transition is not failing – but it is changing shape, moving away from a policy-led “green dream” toward a market-led “industrial reality”.
For the ocean and energy sectors, the strategy for the next decade is clear. Scale the technologies that are winning today, aggressively unblock the infrastructure bottlenecks of tomorrow, and plan for a future that will, once again, look wholly different.
The post For proof of the energy transition’s resilience, look at what it’s up against appeared first on Climate Home News.
For proof of the energy transition’s resilience, look at what it’s up against
Climate Change
Alabama Poised to Drastically Overhaul Utility Regulation. Will It Lower Electric Bills?
The Alabama Senate unanimously voted to expand the public service commission, and create a Secretary of Energy to address rising electricity prices. A bill in the House would go even further, requiring rate case hearings and limiting utility profits.
MONTGOMERY, Ala.—High electricity costs have been the talk of the session in the Alabama Legislature, and the state seems poised to totally revamp its utility regulatory process.
Alabama Poised to Drastically Overhaul Utility Regulation. Will It Lower Electric Bills?
China, Brazil, Italy and Belgium have joined a pledge, launched at COP28 two years ago, to triple global nuclear energy capacity between 2020 and 2050.
Ministers from these four countries announced their support at this week’s Nuclear Energy Summit in Paris, increasing the total number of backers to 38.
At the summit, Chinese Vice Premier Zhang Guoqing said China endorsed the pledge to help tackle climate change and strengthen energy security. “To deliver such ambitious goals we should uphold multilateralism, strengthen solidarity and cooperation and resist unilateralism and protectionism,” he said.
In the last 15 years, China has added more nuclear energy capacity than the rest of the world combined, mainly through large conventional reactors. The country is also planning to become a nuclear exporter, constructing its Hualong One reactor in Pakistan and Argentina.
Sama Bilbao y León, head of World Nuclear Association (WNA), said the new endorsements add “tremendous momentum” to the initiative.
Victor Ibarra, head of the nuclear energy programme at the climate think tank Clean Air Task Force (CATF), said that these endorsements reflect growing recognition for nuclear as a “reliable source of clean, firm power”.
He added that “geopolitical tensions and instability in oil and gas markets” highlight the risks of relying on “volatile fuel supplies”, motivating countries to seek a “more flexible, innovation-driven approach to the energy transition”.
In a report from last year, the International Energy Agency (IEA) heralded a “new era of growth” for nuclear power, as demand for clean electricity rises to power electric vehicles, data centres and artificial intelligence.
A 2026 WNA report projects the tripling goal is achievable if current planning targets hold. On the other hand, Jacopo Buongiorno, nuclear science and engineering professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) told Climate Home News last August that meeting the target would need a supply chain scale-up of “epic” proportions.
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Nuclear emerging in Global South
As the construction of new reactors has stagnated in the US and Europe over the last decade, large emerging economies like China, India, the UAE and South Korea have taken the lead. Now, Brazil is also voicing support.
Brazil’s foreign ministry said in a statement that the country would develop nuclear power responsibly and with “elevated standards for safety, protection and non-proliferation”.
In an interview with Deutsche Welle last week, Brazil’s energy minister Alexandre Silveira said that Brazil’s “future is nuclear”. Silveira has proposed replacing fossil fuel power plants in the Amazon with small modular reactors (SMR), of which only two exist in the world: one in China and one in Russia.
Brazil’s foreign ministry said the country’s large uranium reserves offer it energy security. Uranium is the main fuel used in nuclear reactors, but it requires a refining process known as “enrichment” before it can be used to produce power.
Caio Victor Vieira from the Brazilian climate think tank Talanoa Institute, said nuclear expansion offers only “limited” economic benefit for Brazil, given that the country already sources almost 90% of its electricity from clean sources – mostly hydropower.
He said Brazil’s signing of the pledge “is better understood as a diplomatic and strategic move” to support nuclear globally. “If Brazil were to pursue additional nuclear capacity in the future, it would require a broader domestic policy debate,” he added.
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Europeans divided on nuclear
About half of the pledge’s signatories are European but the continent has long been divided on the issue of nuclear power. France – which derives two-thirds of its power supply from nuclear – has championed this technology, with Germany pulling in the opposite direction.
At the summit on Tuesday, European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen weighed into this debate, calling Europe’s move away from “reliable, affordable” nuclear in the last 30 years a “strategic mistake” that “should change”.
She added that the oil and gas crisis in the Middle East – which has raised the cost of electricity in gas-reliant countries – “gives a stark reminder of the vulnerabilities” that come from phasing out nuclear capacity.
“Europe has been a pioneer in nuclear technology and could once again lead the world in it. Next-generation nuclear reactors could become a European high-tech high-value export”, she said.
She argued that nuclear and renewables should be used in combination, as renewable energy is cheap but intermittent and often best produced far from where it is needed so nuclear energy, storage and improved grids are needed for a reliable energy system.
Europe’s move away from nuclear was led by its biggest economy Germany. Following Von der Leyen’s comments, German environment minister Carsten Schneider said that subsidising new reactors would require “very large amounts of money that would then not be available elsewhere”.
“Clean, safe electricity from wind and solar energy is affordable, has long been a driver of the energy transition and does not produce radioactive waste,” Schneider said.
However, German chancellor Friedrich Merz has indicated he would not oppose classifying nuclear as a clean energy source. His centre-right party governs in coalition with Schneider’s centre-left party
Japan’s anti-nuclear stance has also softened. The country shut down all reactors after the 2011 Fukushima disaster but is now restarting some, though it faces resistance over waste storage.
In the United States, the Trump administration has continued Biden-era support for nuclear energy—pushing new SMRs while weakening safety oversight and exempting reactors from some environmental reviews.
The post China and Brazil join pledge to triple global nuclear energy capacity appeared first on Climate Home News.
China and Brazil join pledge to triple global nuclear energy capacity
Climate Change
Trump Claims Indian Investment Will Make Long-Standing Plans for Brownsville Refinery a Reality
Plans for an oil refinery in Brownsville, Texas, stalled after a permit fight. Now the developer has rebranded as America First Refining.
Trump claimed a “massive win” this week when he announced that the Indian private energy company Reliance Industries is investing in a proposed oil refinery in Brownsville, Texas.
Trump Claims Indian Investment Will Make Long-Standing Plans for Brownsville Refinery a Reality
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