Welcome to Carbon Brief’s DeBriefed.
An essential guide to the week’s key developments relating to climate change.
This week
Hormuz latest
DELAYED ULTIMATUM: The week started with US president Donald Trump giving Iran 48 hours to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a vital supply route for oil and gas, or the US would “hit and obliterate” Iranian power plants, reported the Guardian. By the end of the week, Reuters was reporting Trump’s statement that he would “pause” the threat of strikes for 10 days, claiming talks with Iran were “going very well”.
CLOGGED SUPPLY: Fatih Birol, executive director of the International Energy Agency, called the ongoing blockage of oil and gas supplies through the Strait “the greatest global energy security threat in history”, according to the Financial Times. A separate article in the Financial Times reported that countries are “facing a cliff-edge as the flow of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the Gulf comes to an abrupt end in the next 10 days”.
COAL RESURGENCE: Asian countries are “shifting back to coal” amid disruptions to LNG supplies sparked by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, reported the Associated Press. Similarly, Japan announced plans to allow more use of coal power plants in an effort to boost energy security, noted Bloomberg. Elsewhere, analysts told CNBC how the crisis could “accelerate a shift into renewables” in a “watershed” moment for the energy transition.
UK fallout of Iran war
RENEWABLE HIGHS: The UK’s renewable output hit a record high on Wednesday, “helping to blunt the impact of the Middle East war on power prices”, reported Bloomberg. Meanwhile, the Press Association described a new government announcement on solar panels and heat pumps for all new homes from 2028 as “doubling down on its clean-energy drive in response to the Iran war”. At a household level, the Times reported that UK homeowners are “rush[ing] to install solar panels amid [the] Iran conflict”.
NORTH SEA MYTHS: Using a comment piece in the Sunday Telegraph, Conservative opposition leader Kemi Badenoch led calls predominately coming from right-leaning politicians and media to issue more oil and gas licences in the North Sea. Carbon Brief has published a factcheck exposing nine false or misleading claims about the impact on household bills, emissions and energy security of more North Sea drilling.
Around the world
- CLIMATE PROTECTION: Germany unveiled a plan to help it reach its 2030 climate target and reduce its dependence on “volatile fossil-fuel imports”, reported Reuters.
- DIAGNOSIS: A long-awaited report into the unprecedented blackout that left Spain and Portugal without electricity last April concluded that the “problem did not lie with solar and wind power”, said the Financial Times.
- DELUGED: The US state of Hawaii struggled in the aftermath of “catastrophic flooding” that could cost over $1bn in damages, reported USA Today.
- ARCTIC LOW: Sea ice in the Arctic has tied last year’s record for the lowest-ever peak winter extent, reported Carbon Brief.
91%
The amount of excess heat trapped by the Earth that is stored in the ocean, according to a UN World Meteorological Organization report covered by Agence France-Presse.
Latest climate research
- Extreme events and climate change pose “major threats” to the preservation of underwater cultural heritage, such as sunken ruins, wrecks and archaeological remains | Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
- Human-driven climate change made extreme fires across the Arctic from 2019-21 more than 200 times more likely | Environmental Research Letters
- A county-level study in the US from 2013-24 suggests “higher temperatures are associated with increased risk of police violence” | PLOS One
(For more, see Carbon Brief’s in-depth daily summaries of the top climate news stories on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.)
Captured
India’s carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions grew by 0.5% in the second half of 2025 and by just 0.7% in the year as a whole, the slowest rate in more than two decades, according to analysis for Carbon Brief published this week. This marks a sharp slowdown from 4-11% in the preceding four years and is largely explained by increases in steel and cement production being compensated by falling emissions in the power sector. Carbon Brief also took an in-depth look at India’s delayed nationally determined contribution (NDC) published this week, which contains a new target to reduce its emissions intensity to 47% below 2005 levels by 2035.
Spotlight
The IPCC and Indigenous representation
This week, Carbon Brief speaks to researchers about how the UN’s climate science panel can better incorporate Indigenous peoples and their knowledge into its highly influential reports.
From the Quechua people in Latin America to the Oraon Tribe in Asia, Indigenous peoples’ lands cover more than a quarter of Earth’s surface.
Built up over millenia and transferred through generations, Indigenous knowledge is vital in conserving the world’s remaining biodiversity and building climate resilience.
Prof Pasang Yangjee Sherpa is a Sherpa woman from the Mount Everest region in Nepal and an assistant professor of lifeways in Indigenous Asia at the University of British Columbia, Canada.
Her research advocates for the inclusion of Indigenous people and their knowledge in climate science, particularly in the work of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Sherpa told Carbon Brief:
“If we are really interested in planetary health…we have to make sure that Indigenous peoples and Indigenous peoples’ knowledge is also on the table next to physical science and Euro-Western science.”
Ways of knowing
Last month, the IPCC held a workshop in Reading, UK, on engaging diverse knowledge systems in ways that are “inclusive, equitable and aligned with future needs”.
The workshop is expected to produce a set of recommendations, but the report is not yet available and the workshop itself was closed to journalists.
Sherpa was co-author of an independent report that informed the IPCC workshop. The research, funded by Wellcome, combined the team’s experience with a literature review and multilingual “listening sessions” with Indigenous scholars, leaders and thinkers.
The report explained how Indigenous peoples are disproportionately affected by climate change due to “historical and contemporary colonial processes of territorial dispossession, political exclusion and structural inequality”.
But the inclusion in climate science of Indigenous peoples and their knowledge is not just a justice issue, the report continues:
“Indigenous peoples are not merely vulnerable populations – they are frontline climate leaders whose territorial governance and sciences are essential to understanding and responding to the climate crisis.”
Addressing marginalisation
The report makes some “immediate” recommendations that can be done in the current seventh assessment cycle “to prevent harm, ensure equitable participation and begin redressing historical exclusions”.
These include appointing a minimum of two Indigenous contributing authors per relevant chapter and establishing an ad-hoc Indigenous advisory group.
Looking further ahead, the authors argue the eighth assessment cycle (likely due in the 2030s) requires “institutional transformation” to “reshape governance, methodologies and participation structures”.
Sherpa told Carbon Brief:
“It’s very interesting to me that when you look at the UN and other policymaking spheres, Indigenous peoples from around the world have been actively involved for decades. It’s almost like academia has to catch up to reality, globally.”
Dr Rosario Carmona, also a co-author on the report, is a Chilean anthropologist with the International Work Group for Indigenous Affairs. She was also part of the scientific steering committee that proposed the IPCC workshop, on behalf of the Center for Intercultural and Indigenous Research in Chile. Carmona told Carbon Brief:
“There are good precedents – and the IPCC works on these precedents – that recognise Indigenous knowledge systems as standalone, that don’t need to be validated [by other types of knowledge].”
Soul-searching
The IPCC has been convening this week in Bangkok, Thailand, to consider, among other things, fundamental questions about how it does things, for what purpose and on what timelines.
Now is a good opportunity for wider change in the IPCC mindset, Carmona told Carbon Brief:
“I feel that there is a critical moment now – and there is a huge awareness and a willingness to do things better.”
Watch, read, listen
CHOKING OF HORMUZ: The New York Times took a look inside the “global, exceptionally critical journey of oil and gas, now upended by war”.
WARMING LIMITS: Writing in the Kathmandu Post, Maheswar Rupakheti, vice-chair of Working Group I of the IPCC, and policy researcher Gobinda Prasad Pokharel explored “climate overshoot”.
REFORM RECKONING: A feature in the Guardian examined how residents of flood-stricken Lincolnshire are growing tired with the climate-sceptic views of their MP, Reform deputy leader Richard Tice.
Coming up
- 22-29 March: COP15 for migratory species, Campo Grande, Brazil
- 23 March-2 April: Third meeting of the preparatory commission for the High Seas Treaty, New York
- 30 March: International Energy Agency energy technology perspectives 2026 report launch
Pick of the jobs
- Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, secretary | Salary: Unknown Location: Geneva, Switzerland
- International Institute for Sustainable Development, policy adviser, trade and climate change | Salary: Unknown. Location: Manila, Philippines, Jakarta, Indonesia or remote
- International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, research scholar/modeller – global land carbon cycle and land-use change | Salary: €55,215.00. Location: Laxenburg, Austria
- Beyond Fossil Fuels, energy campaigner in Poland | Salary: €33,000-€37,000. Location: Poland
DeBriefed is edited by Daisy Dunne. Please send any tips or feedback to debriefed@carbonbrief.org.
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The post DeBriefed 27 Mach 2026: North Sea myths debunked | India’s climate plan | IPCC and Indigenous knowledge appeared first on Carbon Brief.
Scientists have vowed to keep working on the next flagship set of reports for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), after a political row over the timeline for their release saw its latest session suspended on Friday evening without agreement.
During the weekend, government officials and scientists alike expressed disappointment over the inability to reach a compromise before some delegates from developing countries and small island states had to leave the week-long meeting in Ethiopia to catch flights home.
The disagreement – which has persisted since early 2024 – turns on whether the three key parts of the AR7 assessment should all be published before the conclusion of the UN’s next Global Stocktake of global climate action, which is due to be completed in late 2028.
The IPCC issued a statement after the close of the session, saying that “key agenda items” – the timelines for the three AR7 reports, as well as the IPCC budget – remain open and under discussion. It said the IPCC’s plenary session and its deliberations on the pending agenda “will resume at the earliest opportunity”, giving no further details of when.
IPCC Chair Jim Skea told delegates in closing remarks that recent months had been some of the most turbulent for the climate science panel and that, if there were stronger words than “profound disappointment” he would use them, according to a summary published by the Earth Negotiators Bulletin (ENB). IPCC discussions happen behind closed doors.
IPCC scientists remained committed
In an open letter, issued on Monday, a group of nearly 120 scientists – from a total of 664 AR7 authors – said they “stand committed to continue working to deliver the AR7 reports in a manner that is rigorous, timely and inclusive, in line with our mandate to be policy-relevant”.
“An assessment that arrives after the decisions it is meant to inform cannot serve its purpose,” they emphasised. “The second Global Stocktake in 2028 is such a decision point, and the world should not have to face it without the IPCCʼs latest assessment.”
Europe, small islands and the least developed countries, plus many Latin American and developed nations, want the IPCC to meet this deadline, arguing that the findings from the UN climate science body are irreplaceable in the UN climate policy-making process.
However, around a dozen developing countries plus Russia have argued that the reports should come later in order to allow for greater research input from the Global South – something that, in their view, would make the findings fairer. They also claim that a shorter timeline would put excessive pressure on experts.
-
Who shapes climate science? The equity question facing the IPCC
Early completion of the next global climate science assessment reports risks excluding research from the Global South, which is key to ensuring the findings are fair -
Governments that support climate science must stand firm against naysayers
The IPCC is meeting to decide the timing of its next major report, as some countries try to delay it and weaken the case for faster emissions cuts
The most vocal of this group at last week’s meeting were India and Saudi Arabia, according to the ENB summary and a developed country diplomat. Critics see this push for a longer timeline as an excuse to deprive government decision-makers of the latest science and ease pressure on emerging economies to raise their ambition, particularly on cutting emissions.
Commenting on last week’s meeting, France’s ambassador for climate negotiations Benoît Faraco said a broad coalition of developed and developing countries from all five continents, “united in their support for science and the timeline proposed by scientists”, had withstood pressure “from a few countries” seeking to slow down the process of adopting the IPCC reports.
He added that France would not back down and would “continue to fight tirelessly for science, protect the integrity of information, and convince our partners that without the best available scientific data, we will be less effective in tackling climate change and protecting our populations”.
Inclusivity proposal stalled
In a bid to unlock a solution for the AR7 timeline, countries discussed ways to improve the inclusivity of the IPCC’s work. One option put on the table was for the IPCC to expand its funding for delegates from developing countries to attend some or all of its sessions from one to two participants, according to the ENB summary and a delegate speaking to Climate Home News.
That would increase the costs for the IPCC to complete AR7 by up to a quarter, according to an assessment shared by the secretariat. The panel’s budget is under severe strain and its officials have warned that, without additional voluntary contributions, it risks running out of money before it can deliver on this assessment cycle.
Climate Home News understands that some of the IPCC’s traditional donors – which mainly include European countries, Japan and Australia – indicated a willingness to support funding for an additional developing country participant. But without an agreement over the budget or the timeline for the reports, that option was ultimately not adopted.
‘Disappointed and worried’
The three reports are managed by working groups that collate and draw overall findings from the latest scientific studies and data on the physical effects of global warming around the world, how to adapt to it, and pathways for cutting planet-heating emissions in order to meet the temperature goals of the Paris Agreement.
Winston Chow, an urban climate professor at Singapore Management University who co-chairs Working Group II on adaptation, wrote in a LinkedIn post that he was “disappointed and worried” for the IPCC authors who have worked “extraordinarily hard” to assess the relevant climate science over the past two years.
He said he shared their concern that “the rigour, time and goodwill they’ve invested are now being put at risk by the Panel’s stalemate”.
As science comes under attack at UN talks, climate movement splits over how to respond
For Working Group II, a meeting for 250 experts writing that report is scheduled for January 2027, followed by the approval of a special report on cities and climate change in Singapore next March.
But because the IPCC’s budget has not been confirmed due to uncertainty about the AR7 schedule, travel support for those researchers is at risk, wrote Chow. “If they cannot participate, our assessments will lose vital expertise, perspectives and scientific breadth, and the collective effort of our authors will be undermined,” he warned.
Scientific work continues
Despite the political holdups, he – together with French climate scientist Robert Vautard, co-chair of Working Group 1 – agreed with IPCC head Skea who told the IPCC’s closing session on Friday: “The engine room of the IPCC is working, and it’s healthy.”
Vautard commented in a separate post on LinkedIn after it ended: “The boat is at full steam.” Working groups I and II are due to start revising the first drafts of their reports, while Working Group III on reducing emissions is finalising its first draft which will be out soon, he wrote.
“The most exciting two years of the cycle are ahead, for the authors. The momentum in the engine room is here and now. Trust the engine room!” he added.
The IPCC and some scientists report that progress has been made towards achieving an equitable balance of authors from the Global North and the Global South.
The group of researchers who signed the open letter on Monday noted that “inclusivity is at the heart of how we work”, with author teams bringing together experts from developed and developing countries with diverse backgrounds and at different stages of their careers.
Plea to overcome political differences
The signatories include several scientists from some of the countries opposed to the alignment of all IPCC reports with the Global Stocktake.
“We are committed to an assessment in which the knowledge, experience and priorities of every region are fully reflected, a commitment we share with the leadership of the IPCC.
Equity is built into how our assessment is being drafted,” they added.
They appealed to governments that make up the IPCC “to overcome their political differences and work together as we do as a global scientific community, so that we can deliver the IPCC reports the world needs to hear”.
In a statement published on Monday, IPCC chair Skea said reaching consensus on the schedule for the reports is “vital”. He added that the assessments provide authoritative scientific evidence to inform national climate policies, strengthen adaptation and resilience and support access to climate finance, as well as helping communicate the scale of the climate crisis and the urgency of efforts to tackle it.
The post IPCC scientists vow to press on with climate reports despite political deadlock appeared first on Climate Home News.
IPCC scientists vow to press on with climate reports despite political deadlock
An Lambrechts is a biodiversity politics expert at Greenpeace International with extensive experience in biodiversity-related multilateral negotiations. She is the head of the Greenpeace delegation at the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) COP17 happening in Yerevan, Armenia.
In 2022, COP15 delivered the landmark Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework to halt and reverse biodiversity loss by 2030. With COP17 starting in Yerevan, we are now halfway to the deadline, and according to the first Global Review of progress, countries are not on track to meet the biodiversity targets, and implementation must accelerate fast.
One of the main findings of the Global Review is that funding falls far short of the scale needed to halt and reverse nature loss. But the crisis facing the world’s biodiversity is not an absolute scarcity of capital – it is a profound public policy distortion.
The global economy currently spends roughly $30 destroying nature for every single dollar invested in its protection. According to a