Arctic sea ice has reached its peak extent for this winter, clocking in as the joint-smallest in a satellite record going back almost half a century.
Provisional data from the US National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) shows that sea ice extent peaked at 14.29m square kilometres (km2) on 15 March.
This is slightly smaller than the previous record for the annual maximum – set just last year – but it counts as a statistical tie, the NSIDC says.
The annual maximum is a key marker in a cycle that sees sea ice extent grow through the cold, dark winter, before melting in spring and summer to a yearly minimum.
The joint record marks a “very alarming” winter for Arctic sea ice, Dr Zack Labe – a scientist at Climate Central – tells Carbon Brief.
And there is more “grim news”, Labe says, as the thickness of the ice is near record lows – meaning that Arctic sea ice is “entering late winter in one of its weakest states in the satellite record”.
‘Unusually warm’
The past six months has seen Arctic sea ice extent “at record or near-record lows, alongside unusually warm conditions” across much of the region, says Dr Lettie Roach, a polar climate scientist at the Alfred Wegener Institute.
These go “hand in hand”, Roach tells Carbon Brief, as “warmer air and ocean temperatures help melt the ice and with less ice, the ocean absorbs more heat, which further speeds up warming”.
The chart below shows Arctic sea ice extent in 2025 (dark blue) and 2026 (red) so far. For comparison, the chart shows decadal averages (dotted lines) as well as 2012 (mid blue), the year of the smallest summer sea-ice minimum on record.
Recent months have seen “strong temperature contrasts” over the northern hemisphere, continues Roach:
“In addition to large parts of the Arctic, temperatures were unusually warm in the western US, southern Europe and eastern Eurasia, while northern Eurasia, northern Canada and the north-eastern US experienced unusually cold conditions.
“That’s linked to a more ‘wavy’ jet stream, which can push cold Arctic air southward while bringing warmer air into the Arctic.”
These conditions have contributed to “particularly bad” sea ice levels in regions such as the Sea of Okhotsk, Baffin Bay, Barents Sea and Kara Sea, says Labe. He adds that “one of the only regions with more sea ice relative to normal is across the eastern Bering Sea around Alaska”.
‘Long-term downward trend’
This year’s winter peak is the latest milestone in the “long-term downward trend we’ve observed” in Arctic sea ice since the start of satellite observations in the late 1970s, says Roach.
According to the NSIDC, the 2026 maximum extent is 1.36km2 smaller than the 1981-2010 average. That is “equivalent to about twice the size of Texas”, the centre says.
Arctic sea ice is “not just shrinking in extent”, says Roach, it is “also much thinner and more fragile than it used to be”.
Labe notes the “grim news” that sea ice “near the north pole has had record-low thickness for several months now”, adding:
“In February, total Arctic sea ice volume was the second lowest on record. Taken together, Arctic sea ice is entering late winter in one of its weakest states in the satellite record.”
While there is a “lot of year-to-year variability due to natural fluctuations in the atmosphere and ocean”, this long-term decline is “mainly due to human-caused climate change”, says Roach.
Labe adds:
“Human-caused climate change is completely reshaping the polar environment and this is already having wide-ranging consequences.”
The chart below shows the annual winter maxima (blue) and summer minima (red) since the start of the satellite record.
The chart highlights that the annual maximum has “shown a relatively steady decline over the past 40 years, with the [previous] record low occurring as recently as last year”, says Dr Mika Rantanen, a researcher at the Finnish Meteorological Institute.
This is in “sharp contrast to the annual minimum, where the record [low] still dates back to 2012”, he tells Carbon Brief. This indicates that the summer minimum is “more prone” to yearly ups and downs of natural variability, he explains.
It is for this reason that “it is still too early to say” what the low winter peak means for the forthcoming summer melt season as “regional weather can change quickly”, adds Labe:
“But winter of 2025-26 is another clear signal of just how fast the Arctic is shifting.”
‘Average’ Antarctica
At the Earth’s other pole, sea ice around Antarctica has been melting through the southern-hemisphere summer.
It reached its annual minimum extent of 2.58m km2 on 26 February, the NSIDC says, placing this year as the 16th smallest on record.
For most of the summer, Antarctic sea ice has been “below average”, Dr Clare Eayrs, a postdoctoral researcher at the Korea Polar Research Institute (KOPRI), tells Carbon Brief. However, she continues:
“That changed in January and February, when a shift in surface winds slowed the retreat. Southerly winds over the Weddell Sea pushed existing sea ice northward, keeping coverage higher than expected in that region, while sea ice cover in the Bellingshausen Sea remained low.”
These winds were mostly “redistributing ice rather than new ice forming in these regions”, Eayrs notes:
“This was enough to keep the summer sea ice coverage much closer to average than in the previous four years…It is a reminder that where a season starts does not always determine where it ends.”
Recent years have seen a series of record-low extents in the sea ice that surrounds Antarctica.
While it is “likely” that climate change is influencing Antarctic sea ice, scientists “remain uncertain about the extent and precise mechanisms involved”, says Eayrs:
“This uncertainty is itself an important part of the story. Antarctic sea ice has always been highly variable and its variability has masked any emerging long-term signal for much of the satellite era.”
However, recent research points to a recent “structural change” in Antarctica’s sea ice system, Eayrs notes. This is marked by a greater persistence of low sea ice and a “weaker tendency for the system to return to its earlier mean state”.
In other words, says Eayrs, “when sea ice drops to unusual lows, it no longer bounces back as readily as it once did”.
The post ‘Very alarming’ winter sees Arctic sea ice hit record-low for second year running appeared first on Carbon Brief.
‘Very alarming’ winter sees Arctic sea ice hit record-low for second year running
Climate Change
DeBriefed 19 June 2026: Bonn talks end in ‘gridlock’ | Energy’s ‘new era’ | Oceans in climate negotiations
Welcome to Carbon Brief’s DeBriefed.
An essential guide to the week’s key developments relating to climate change.
This week
Bonn talks close
‘SIDE-STEPPING AND STALLING’: UN climate talks in Bonn have ended in “gridlock”, according to Climate Home News. The outlet reported on the failure to balance developing countries’ need for climate-adaptation finance with “richer nations’ desire to move forward” on emissions cuts. It added that both topics were subject to “rule 16”, meaning no agreement could be reached and work will be pushed to the COP31 summit in Turkey. Inside Climate News quoted UN climate executive secretary Simon Stiell, who said the talks had seen “side-stepping and stalling”.
JUST TRANSITION: One “glimmer of hope” came from negotiations on achieving a “just transition”, reported Euronews. The news outlet said negotiators “made headway on operationalising the Belém-Antalya mechanism”, intended to support people in the shift to a low-carbon economy. However, Politico concluded that much of the focus in Bonn had “shift[ed] to efforts outside diplomatic talks – raising questions about the future of global climate negotiations”.
‘ATTACKING SCIENCE’: Agence France-Presse reported on the EU, Switzerland and “dozens of developing nations” warning of “attacks on science” by a “small group of fossil-fuels interests” in Bonn. Table Briefings explained that “the 1.5C target is increasingly being challenged” and the role of the UN climate-science panel – the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) – in an upcoming assessment of global climate progress “remains controversial”. See Carbon Brief’s full write-up of the talks for more detail.
US-Iran deal
PRICE DROP: The US and Iran announced that they have reached an interim agreement to halt the war and reopen the strait of Hormuz, reported Bloomberg. Oil prices have fallen, as the “long-awaited deal” began the process of “eas[ing]” the global energy crisis triggered by the conflict, according to the New York Times. The Associated Press noted that high fuel prices will “likely outlast the Iran war”.
‘OIL GLUT’: The Financial Times reported that the International Energy Agency (IEA) has forecast a “glut of oil” emerging next year, if the peace deal holds. The IEA said this would allow countries to build new strategic reserves, as they “review their energy strategies and policies in response to the crisis”, according to Reuters.
‘NEW ERA’: Agence France-Presse reported that oil and gas companies have “few illusions about a return to normal for the Gulf energy industry after more than three months of blockage”. One analyst told the newswire that the war “showed the oil and gas industry that Hormuz risk is no longer just a geopolitical headline”.
Around the world
- OCEAN MONITOR: The Trump administration is “abandoning its plan” to dismantle a $368m ocean monitoring system key for tracking climate change after a “bipartisan backlash on Capitol Hill”, reported the New York Times.
- CORAL HAVEN: The New York Times covered preliminary research, presented at the Our Ocean Conference in Kenya, suggesting there could be three times as many “coral refugia” – where corals are relatively safe from climate change – than previously thought.
- BAD CREDIT: Down to Earth reported that the first carbon credits issued under the Paris Agreement’s new Article 6.4 mechanism are “facing scrutiny over alleged links to institutions controlled by Myanmar’s military junta”.
- OIL BACKTRACK: Reuters reported that oil-and-gas company Equinor has dropped a renewable-energy target and scaled back clean investments, while another Reuters story noted that Shell is selling off its offshore wind assets.
1.1 billion
The number of children facing “at least three overlapping climate hazards”, according to a new Unicef report covered by Agence France-Presse.
Latest climate research
- Including the “permafrost carbon-climate feedback” in climate models increases the chance of exceeding “tipping elements” – such as the Greenland ice sheets, Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation or Amazon rainforest – by up to 50% | Environmental Research Letters
- The intensity of influenza outbreaks could decline in temperate regions, but increase in tropical areas over the next century, as the climate warms | PNAS Nexus
- European snow cover has declined by 20% for December and January since the start of the industrial era, revealing an “unprecedented ongoing shrinkage of European winters” | Communications Earth & Environment
(For more, see Carbon Brief’s in-depth daily summaries of the top climate news stories on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.)
Captured
The more than 2m battery electric vehicles (BEVs), 1m “plug-in” hybrids (PHEVs) and 100,000 electric vans on UK roads are already saving drivers a total of around £3bn a year, according to new Carbon Brief analysis. This amounts to savings of more than £1,100 a year in fuel costs for each BEV driver in the UK. The analysis comes amid reports in UK media this week that the government is considering “watering down” its EV sales targets.
Spotlight
Oceans rising at UN climate talks
The state of the world’s oceans is inextricably linked to the changing climate – and many delegates at UN climate talks want to see more focus on this issue, reports Carbon Brief.
Oceans are often described as the world’s “greatest ally” against climate change – absorbing 30% of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and most of the heat generated by those emissions.
They are also the site of important climate solutions, such as huge offshore windfarms and the shipping industry’s transition to cleaner fuels.
At the same time, the oceans themselves present a growing danger to coastal communities and sea life due to sea level rise, marine heatwaves and ocean acidification.
These diverse issues have led to growing calls within the UN climate process for more focus on oceans. During climate negotiations this week in Bonn – known as SB64 – nations and civil society had a chance to air these views during an “ocean and climate change dialogue”.
‘Elevate action’
Oceans first entered UN climate outcomes in 2019, when the final COP25 negotiated text requested a new “dialogue” on “the ocean and climate change to consider how to strengthen mitigation and adaptation action”.
The following years saw this dialogue established as an annual event. However, the political weight of these discussions has been limited.
COP31 is being co-led by Turkey and Australia, but with Pacific islands playing a supporting role. These small islands sometimes self-identify as “large ocean states”, stressing the ocean’s centrality in their societies.
In Bonn, figures from across the presidency threw their weight behind this issue. Chris Bowen, an Australian minister and incoming COP31 “president of negotiations”, told attendees:
“Australia, Turkey and the Pacific see an important opportunity to elevate ocean-based climate action.”
Strategies and finance
The two-day dialogue in Bonn involved a series of panels, statements and breakout groups.
One of the main topics was how oceans are integrated into national climate plans under the Paris Agreement, known as “nationally determined contributions” (NDCs).
Three-quarters of the latest round of NDCs mention oceans, with conservation of “blue carbon” ecosystems the most frequently described action. (Landscapes such as mangroves can both absorb CO2 and protect coastal areas.)
Delegates also discussed alignment with the UN biodiversity process, as well as ocean finance, which currently makes up less than 1% of all climate finance.
(As discussions were taking place in Bonn, country officials also gathered in Mombasa, Kenya for the 11th Our Ocean Conference. Carbon Brief’s associate editor Giuliana Viglione attended the conference and will publish a full summary shortly.)
Developing countries were clear that many of the ocean-related actions in their NDCs would depend on receiving more financial support.
‘Political momentum’
With the backing of the COP31 presidency, delegates were hopeful about where this year’s dialogue could lead.
Charles Hamilton, an advisor for the Bahamas who spoke for the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS) in the dialogue, told Carbon Brief that island representatives “are not traveling thousands of miles to just talk and pat ourselves on the back”. He added:
“A dialogue that just remains a dialogue is just more talk – no action.”
Given that, he said “discussions in the dialogue must move into COP decisions and the decisions must be actioned”, noting the importance of finance.
Marina Corrêa, oceans lead at WWF-Brazil, pointed to an upcoming UN climate change Standing Committee on Finance forum as a space to ramp up pressure on ocean finance.
More broadly, she wanted to see the presidencies translate their support into a “leader-level ocean initiative” that could “mainstream” oceans across negotiations.
“We have a really interesting opportunity, in terms of political momentum,” Corrêa told Carbon Brief.
Watch, read, listen
‘HOTTER THAN HELL’: An episode of the BBC’s Rare Earth podcast titled “hotter than hell” considered the issue of extreme heat, with input from experts and “people facing up to the hottest temperatures on the planet”.
NOT BROKEN?: John Drake, a professor of ecology at the University of Georgia, wrote an essay for Aeon – also re-published as a Guardian “long read” – questioning the framing of ecosystems and climate systems “breaking down”.
ON COURSE: On his Volts podcast, US climate journalist David Roberts interviewed UK climate minister Katie White, quizzing her about whether the UK will “stay the course with its climate plans”.
Coming up
- 20-28 June: London climate action week
- 21 June: Colombia presidential runoff
- 24 June: UK Climate Change Committee progress in reducing emissions 2026 report to parliament
Pick of the jobs
- Mongabay, managing editor – Africa | Salary: Unknown. Location: Global
- Contexte, environment reporter – Brussels | Salary: €45,000-€60,000. Location: Brussels
- Climate 200, communications director | Salary: Unknown. Location: Australia
- Energy Tracker Asia, energy transition correspondent | Salary: $3,000-$4,000 per month. Location: South-east Asia (remote)
DeBriefed is edited by Daisy Dunne. Please send any tips or feedback to debriefed@carbonbrief.org.
This is an online version of Carbon Brief’s weekly DeBriefed email newsletter. Subscribe for free here.
The post DeBriefed 19 June 2026: Bonn talks end in ‘gridlock’ | Energy’s ‘new era’ | Oceans in climate negotiations appeared first on Carbon Brief.
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