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2024年5月,尽管用电需求持续增长,清洁能源发电量占到中国全国总发电量的44%,创下历史新高;燃煤发电量占比降至53%,达到历史低点。

基于官方数据和其他数据,Carbon Brief 的新分析揭示了煤炭在能源结构中占比下降的真实程度。

2023年5月,煤炭在中国发电量中所占比例为60%。一年后,这一数字下降了7个百分点。

该分析揭示的其他关键信息包括:

  • 国家统计局按发电方式分列的月度发电量数据现在对风能和太阳能发电量计入非常有局限性。例如,它未纳入“分布式”屋顶光伏和较小的集中式太阳能发电站,因此只能捕捉到约一半的太阳能发电量。
  • 国家统计局的月度总发电量为718太瓦时(TWh),而国家能源局报告提出月度电力需求为775太瓦时,两者的差距显著。实际上,由于发电厂和电网损耗,发电量肯定应高于需求量。
  • 媒体报道曾猜测,创纪录的新增可再生能源装机容量会在5月份触及电网上限,但新数据显示情况并非如此。
  • 2024年5月,中国电力需求同比增长49太瓦时(7.2%)。
  • 与此同时,清洁能源发电量创纪录地增长了78太瓦时,其中太阳能发电量创纪录地增长了41太瓦时(78%),水力发电量从早些时候干旱造成的低点回升了34太瓦时(39%),风力发电量小幅增长了4太瓦时(5%)。
  • 随着清洁能源的增长超过电力需求增长,化石燃料发电量被迫回落,出现了自2019年新冠大流行以来最大的月度降幅。天然气发电量下降了4太瓦时(16%),燃煤发电量下降了16太瓦时(4%)。
  • 化石燃料发电量的下降意味着电力行业的CO2排放量下降了3.6%,而电力行业的CO2排放量约占中国温室气体排放总量的五分之二,是近年来排放增长的主要来源。
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从2024年3月开始,中国化石燃料和水泥行业的CO2排放量由增变减。新的研究结果表明,这一趋势仍在继续。

如果目前风能和太阳能的快速部署得以继续,那么中国的CO2排放量很可能会继续下降,从而使2023年成为中国碳达峰的一年。

月度数据差异

国家统计局每月都会公布中国按发电方式分列的发电量数据。2024年5月的数据是在近一个月前的6月中旬公布,并被广泛报道。

然而,这些数据的局限性越来越大,因为其中不包括“分布式”光伏电站,如家庭和企业屋顶上安装的光伏系统。本文的分析表明,这使得大约一半的太阳能发电总量被遗漏。

如果仔细审视用电量,国家统计局发电量数据不完整这一事实显而易见:国家能源局报告的5月份用电量为775太瓦时,而国家统计局报告的发电量仅为718太瓦时。实际上,由于发电厂和输电过程中的损耗,发电量肯定远远大于用电量。

国家统计局报告的太阳能和风能发电量似乎很少,这引起了人们的困惑,并导致有报道声称中国的风能和太阳能发电表现不佳。

中电联收集的“利用率”数据可跟踪风能和太阳能发电的表现,显示相对于最大潜力的实际出力。这些数据通常包含在国家能源局发布的月度统计数据中。

国家能源局因在5月份发布的数据中略过了利用率,这导致彭博社和路透社猜测背后原因可能是风能和太阳能数据不佳。这一猜测在中电联直接提供其数据后基本被证明不成立,因为太阳能发电利用率大幅上升;风能利用率虽然下降,但在正常的年度变化范围内。

另一个数据集追踪了由于电网灵活性低而浪费的太阳能和风能发电量的比例,结果显示两者分别小幅增长了0.8和1.7个百分点。这对电厂运营者来说是个问题,但该升幅远未达到会显著影响利用率的程度——消纳率的年际变化幅度通常超过5%。

现在有足够的数据来破解国家统计局发电数据的局限性,并描绘出中国5月份发电结构的全貌。

首先值得一提的是,国家统计局的数据是以30天为一个月进行归一化处理的,这造成了部分数据不匹配。本文剩余部分使用归一化后的30天数据。

除了使用国家统计局数据,还可根据报告的装机容量和利用率来估算太阳能和风能发电量。通过将这些估计值与其他技术的报告发电量相结合,得出总发电量为783太瓦时,同比增长8%。

报告的750太瓦时用电量(按30天为一个月进行归一化)与估计的783太瓦时发电量相符,另有4.2%的差异是由于传输损耗造成的。

目前尚无输电损耗的月度数据,但2023年的平均值为4.5%,与报告的用电量和预估发电量之间的差距非常吻合。

创纪录的结果

综合各种数据可以看出,2024年5月太阳能发电量创纪录地增长了78%,远高于不完整的国家统计局数据中29%的同比增幅。

太阳能发电装机容量增加52%至691吉瓦(gigawatt),产能利用率从16%提高到19%,太阳能发电量从2023年5月的53太瓦时增至2024年5月的94太瓦时,增加了41太瓦时,创下中国各发电方式发电量中最大的增幅。

水电发电量的增幅位居第二,虽然发电量仅增长了1%,但利用率却从31%跃升至41%,因为该行业正从2022年至2023年创纪录的干旱中恢复过来。这使得水电发电量增加了39%(34太瓦时),达到115太瓦时。

风电装机大幅增长了21%,但其利用率却有所下降,这可能是由于风力条件逐月变化所致。因此,发电量的增幅相对较小,仅为5%(4太瓦时),达到83太瓦时。核电和生物质发电的发电量也有小幅增长,但核电站的利用率从87%下降到85%。

如下图所示,清洁能源发电量总计增长了78太瓦时。这足以超过49太瓦时的需求增长。

因此,尽管燃气发电装机增加了9%,但发电量却大幅下降16%,利用率急剧下降了24%。燃煤发电装机增加了3%,但发电量却下降了3.7%,平均利用率下降了7%。需求下降可能会抑制过去两年火热的对新建煤炭产能的投资。

燃煤和燃气发电量的变化,加之燃煤电厂热耗率的轻微下降,意味着电力行业的CO2排放量下降了3.6%。

2016-2024 年中国每月发电量同比变化 (terawatt hours)。 根据 WIND Information 上中国电力企业联合会报告的容量和利用率计算出风能、太阳能发电量, 和按燃料划分的火力发电明细;根据国家统计局每月发布的数据计算出火电总发电量和其他发电来源的总量。 Carbon Brief制图。
2016-2024 年中国每月发电量同比变化 (terawatt hours)。 根据 WIND Information 上中国电力企业联合会报告的容量和利用率计算出风能、太阳能发电量, 和按燃料划分的火力发电明细;根据国家统计局每月发布的数据计算出火电总发电量和其他发电来源的总量。 Carbon Brief制图。

在发电量发生上述变化后,中国的发电结构在2024年5月已大幅减少了对化石燃料的依赖。如下图所示,燃煤发电份额从去年同期的60%降至53%,是有记录以来的最低份额。

与此同时,太阳能发电占比从去年同期的7%上升到12%,创历史最高纪录。其余为风电(11%)、水电(15%)、核电(5%)、天然气发电(3%)和生物质发电(2%)。

2016-2024年发电量份额 (%)。Carbon Brief 制图。根据 WIND Information 上中国电力企业联合会报告的容量和利用率计算出风能、太阳能发电量, 和按燃料划分的火力发电明细;根据国家统计局每月发布的数据计算出火电总发电量和其他发电来源的总量。 Carbon Brief制图。
2016-2024年发电量份额 (%)。Carbon Brief 制图。根据 WIND Information 上中国电力企业联合会报告的容量和利用率计算出风能、太阳能发电量, 和按燃料划分的火力发电明细;根据国家统计局每月发布的数据计算出火电总发电量和其他发电来源的总量。 Carbon Brief制图。

非化石能源的总体份额达到创纪录的44%,间歇性可再生能源(太阳能和风能)的比例也创下新高,达到23%。

如上图所示,尽管需求不断增长,但太阳能和风能在中国电力结构中的份额正在迅速增加。2016年5月,它们仅占总量的7%。

与此同时,2024年5月,清洁能源发电装机继续强劲增长,新增太阳能发电装机19吉瓦 ,风电3吉瓦 ,核电1.2吉瓦。

在2024年的前五个月,中国新增了约79吉瓦的太阳能和20吉瓦的风能。如下图所示,这两个新增发电装机数字比去年分别增长了29%和21%,而去年的数字已经创下历史新高。

就太阳能发电具体而言,2024年5月的月新增装机高于4月,与2023年5月相比也有同比增长。

每年从一月份风电和太阳能的累计新增发电装机容量 (gigawatts)。根据国家能源局每月发布的数据。 Carbon Brief制图。
每年从一月份风电和太阳能的累计新增发电装机容量 (gigawatts)。根据国家能源局每月发布的数据。 Carbon Brief制图。

太阳能发电量的快速增长表明,太阳能产能的激增正在提供新的电力供应,其规模足以满足中国大部分的需求增长。

这进一步印证了中国的CO2排放量正处于结构性下降时期的观点。

如果清洁能源的新增装机保持在2023年和2024年初的水平,那么CO2排放量可能会持续下降,这将确定2023年是中国实现碳达峰的一年。

由于中国将在明年初宣布新的气候目标,政府对清洁能源增长的雄心水平仍有待观察。

关于数据

风能和太阳能发电量,以及按燃料划分的火电发电量系通过将每月末的发电装机乘月利用率计算得出,数据来自万得金融终端提供的中电联报告数据。

火电、水电和核电的总发电量来源于国家统计局的月度发布数据。由于无法获得生物质发电的月度利用率数据,因此采用2023年的年平均利用率52%。

发电产生的碳排放量估算基于中国最新的2018年国家温室气体排放清单中的排放因子,以及国家能源局公布的燃煤电厂月平均热耗率,并假设燃气电厂平均热耗率为50%。

The post 分析:中国清洁能源发展使五月燃煤发电份额降至53%的历史低点 appeared first on Carbon Brief.

分析:中国清洁能源发展使五月燃煤发电份额降至53%的历史低点

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Landmark deal to share Chile’s lithium windfall fractures Indigenous communities

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Rudecindo Espíndola’s family has been growing corn, figs and other crops for generations in the Soncor Valley in northern Chile, an oasis of green orchards in one of the driest places on Earth the Atacama desert.

Perched nearly 2,500 metres above sea level, his village, Toconao, means “lost corner” in the Kunza language of the Indigenous people who have lived and farmed the land in this remote spot for millennia.

“Our deep connection to this place is based on what we have inherited from our ancestors: our culture, our language,” said Espíndola, a member of a local research team that found evidence that people have inhabited the desert for more than 12,000 years.

This distant outpost is at the heart of the global rush for lithium, a silvery-white metal used to make batteries for electric vehicles (EV) and renewable energy storage that are vital to the world’s clean energy transition. The Atacama salt flat is home to about 25% of the world’s known lithium reserves, turning Chile into the world’s second-largest lithium producer after Australia.

For decades, the Atacama’s Indigenous Lickanantay people have protested against the expansion of the lithium industry, warning that the large evaporation ponds used to extract lithium from the brine beneath the salt flats are depleting scarce and sacred water supplies and destroying fragile desert ecosystems.

Espíndola joined the protests, fearing that competition for water could pose an existential threat to his community.

But last year, he was among dozens of Indigenous representatives who sat across the table from executives representing two Chilean mining giants to hammer out a governance model that gives Indigenous communities living close to lithium sites a bigger say over operations, and a greater share of the economic benefits.

A man wearing a black T-shirt and a hat stands in front of a tree
Rudecindo Espíndola stands in a green oasis near the village of Toconao in the Atacama desert (Photo: Francisco Parra)

A pioneering deal

The agreement is part of a landmark deal between state-owned copper miner Codelco and lithium producer the Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile (SQM) to extract lithium from the salt flats until 2060 through a joint venture called NovaAndino Litio.

The governance model that promises people living in Toconao and other villages around the salt flats millions of dollars in benefits and greater environmental oversight is the first of its kind in mineral-rich Chile, and has been hailed by industry experts as the start of a potential model for more responsible mining for energy transition metals.

NovaAndino told Climate Home News the negotiations with local communities represented an “unprecedented process that has allowed us to incorporate the territory’s vision early in the project’s design” and creates “a system of permanent engagement” with local communities.

The company added it will contribute to sustainable development in the area and help “the safeguarding of [the Lickanantay people’s] culture and environmental values”.

    For mining companies, such agreements could help reduce social conflicts and protests, which have delayed and stalled extraction in other parts of South America’s lithium-rich region, known as the lithium triangle.

    “Argentina and Bolivia could learn a lot from what we’re doing [here],” said Rodrigo Guerrero, a researcher at the Santiago-based Espacio Público think-tank, adding that adopting participatory frameworks early on could prevent them from “going through the entire cycle of disputes” that Chile has experienced.

    Justice at last?

    As part of the governance deal, NovaAndino has pledged to adopt technologies that will reduce water use and mitigate the environmental impacts of lithium extraction.

    It has also committed to hold more than 100 annual meetings with community representatives to build a “good faith” relationship, and an Indigenous Advisory Council will meet twice a year with the company’s sustainability committee to discuss its environmental strategy, company sources said. The meetings are due to begin next month.

    To oversee the agreement’s implementation, an assembly – composed of representatives from all 25 signatory communities – will track the project’s progress. In addition, NovaAndino will hold one-on-one meetings with each community to address issues such as the hiring of local people and the protection of Indigenous employees.

    A flamingo at the Chaxa Lagoon in the Atacama salt flat (Photo: REUTERS/Cristian Rudolffi)

    Espíndola said the deal, while far from perfect, was an important step forward.

    “Previously, Indigenous participation was ambiguous. Now we talk about participation at [every] hierarchical level of this process, a very strong empowerment for Indigenous communities,” said Espíndola, adding that it did not give local communities everything they had asked for. For instance, they will not hold veto power over NovaAndino’s decisions or have a formal shareholder role.

    But after years of conflict with mining companies, a form of “participatory justice is being done”, he said.

    Not everyone is convinced that the accord, pushed by Chile’s former leftist government, marks progress, however.

    “Not in our name”

    The negotiations have caused deep divisions among the Lickanantay, some of whom say greater engagement with mining companies will not stop irreparable damage to the salt flats on which their traditional way of life depends. Others fear the promise of more money will further erode community bonds.

    In January 2024, Indigenous communities from five villages closest to the mining operations, including Toconao, blocked the main access roads to the lithium extraction sites. They said the Council of Atacameño Peoples, which represents 18 Lickanantay communities and was leading discussions with the company, no longer spoke for them.

    Official transcripts of consultations on the extension of the lithium contracts and how to share the promised benefits reveal deep divisions. Tensions peaked when communities around the mining operations clashed over how to distribute the multimillion-dollar windfall, with villages closest to the mining sites demanding the largest share.

    Eventually, separate deals establishing a new governance framework over mining activities were reached between Codelco and SQM with 25 local communities, including a specific agreement for the five villages closest to the extraction sites.

    Codelco’s chairman Maximo Pacheco (Photo: REUTERS/Rodrigo Garrido)

    The division caused by the separate deal for the five villages “will cause historic damage” to the unity of the Atacama desert’s Indigenous peoples, said Hugo Flores, president of the Council of Atacameño Associations, a separate group representing farmers, herders and local workers who oppose the mining expansion.

    Sonia Ramos, 83, a renowned Lickanantay healer and well-known anti-mining activist, lamented the fracturing of social bonds over money, and for the sake of meeting government objectives.

    “There is fragmentation among the communities themselves. Everything has transformed into disequilibrium,” said the 83-year-old.

    “[NovaAndino] supposedly has economic significance for the country, but for us, it is the opposite,” she said.

    The company told Climate Home News it has “acted consistently” to promote “transparent, voluntary, and good-faith dialogue with the communities in the territory, recognising their diversity and autonomy, and always respecting their timelines and forms of participation”.

    A one-off deal or a model for others?

    The NovaAndino joint venture is a pillar of Chile’s strategy to double lithium production by 2031 and consolidate the copper-producing nation’s role in the clean energy transition as demand for battery minerals accelerates.

    Chile’s new far-right president, José Antonio Kast, who was sworn in last week, promised to respect the lithium contracts signed by his predecessor’s administration – including the governance model.

    Still, some experts say the splits over the new model highlight the need for legislation that mandates direct engagement and minimum community benefits for all large mining projects.

    “In the past, this has lent itself to clientelism, communities who negotiate best or arrive first get the better deal,” said Pedro Zapata, a programme officer in Chile for the Natural Resource Governance Institute.

    “This can be to the detriment of other communities with less strength. We cannot have first- and second-class citizens subject to the same industry,” he added.

    The government is already negotiating two more public-private partnerships to extract lithium with mining giant Rio Tinto, which it said would include a framework to engage with Indigenous communities and share some of the revenues. The details will need to be negotiated between local people, the government and the company.

    Sharing the benefits of mining

    Under the deal in the Atacama, NovaAndino will run SQM’s current lithium concessions until they expire in 2030 before seeking new permits to expand mining in the region under a vast project known as “Salar Futuro” – a process which will require further mandatory consultations with communities.

    Besides the participatory mechanism, the new agreement promises more money than ever before for salt flat communities.

    A stone arch welcomes visitors to the village of Peine, one of the closest settlements to lithium mining sites in the Atacama salt flat (Photo: REUTERS/Cristian Rudolffi)

    Depending on the global price of lithium and their proximity to the mining operations, Indigenous communities could collectively receive roughly $30 million annually in funding – about double what SQM currently disburses under existing contracts.

    When taking into account the company’s payments to local and regional authorities, contributions could reach $150 million annually, according to the government.

    To access these resources, each community will need to submit a pipeline of projects they would like funding for under a complex arrangement that includes five separate financial streams:

    • A general investment fund will distribute funding based on each village’s size and proximity to the mining sites
    • A development fund will support projects specifically in the five communities closest to the extraction sites
    • Contributions to farmers and livestock associations
    • Contributions to local governments
    • A groundbreaking “intergenerational fund” held in trust for the Lickanantay until 2060

    For many isolated communities in the Atacama desert, financial contributions from mining firms have funded essential public services, such as healthcare and facilities like football pitches and swimming pools.

    In the past, communities have used some of the benefits they received from mining to build their own environmental monitoring units, hiring teams of hydrogeologists and lawyers to scrutinise miners’ activities.

    Espíndola said the new model could pave the way for more ambitious development projects such as water treatment plants and community solar energy projects.

    A man in a white shirt and glasses stands in front of a stone wall
    Sergio Cubillos, president of the Peine community, was one of the Indigenous representatives in the negotiations with Codelco and SQM (Photo credit: Formando Rutas/ Daniela Carvajal)

    Competition for water

    The depletion of water resources is one of local people’s biggest environmental concerns.

    To extract lithium from the salt flats, miners pump lithium-rich brine accumulated over millions of years in underground reservoirs into gigantic pools, where the water is left to evaporate under the sun and leaves behind lithium carbonate.

    One study has shown that the practice is causing the salt flat to sink by up to two centimetres a year. SQM recently said its current operations consume approximately 11,500 to 12,500 litres of industrial freshwater for every metric ton of lithium produced.

    NovaAndino has committed to significantly reduce the company’s water use by returning at least 30% of the water it extracts from the brine and eliminating the use of all freshwater in its operations within five years of obtaining an environmental permit.

      Cristina Dorador, a microbiologist at the University of Antofagasta, told Climate Home News that reinjecting the water underground is untested at a large scale and could impact the chemical composition of the salt flats.

      Continuing to extract lithium from the flats until 2060 could be the “final blow” for this fragile ecosystem, she said.

      Asked to comment on such concerns, NovaAndino said any new technology will be “subject to the highest regulatory standards”, and pledged to ensure transparency through “an updated monitoring system with the participation of Indigenous communities”.

      High price for hard-won gains

      For the five communities living on the doorstep of the lithium pools, one of the biggest gains is being granted physical access to the mining sites to monitor the lithium extraction and its impact on the salt flats.

      That is a first and will strengthen communities’ ability to call out environmental harms, said Sergio Cubillos, the community president of Peine, the village closest to the evaporation ponds. It could also give them the means to seek remediation through the courts if necessary, Espíndola said.

      Gaining such rights represents long-overdue progress, Cubillos said, but it has come at a high price for the Lickanantay people.

      “Communities receiving money today is what has ultimately led to this division, because we haven’t been able to figure out what we want, how we want it, and how we envision our future as a people,” he said.

      Main image: A truck loads concentrated brine at SQM’s lithium mine at the Atacama salt flat in Chile (Photo: REUTERS/Ivan Alvarado)

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      Landmark deal to share Chile’s lithium windfall fractures Indigenous communities

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      Roadmap launched to restart deadlocked UN plastics treaty talks

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      Diplomats will hold a series of informal meetings this year in a bid to revive stalled talks over a global treaty to curb plastic pollution, before aiming to reconvene for the next round of official negotiations at the end of 2026 or early 2027.

      Hoping to find a long-awaited breakthrough in the deeply divided UN process, the chair of the talks, Chilean ambassador Julio Cordano, released a roadmap on Monday to inject momentum into the discussions after negotiations collapsed at a chaotic session in Geneva last August.

      Cordano wrote in a letter that countries would meet in Nairobi from June 30 to July 3 for informal discussions to review all the components of the negotiations, including thorny issues such as efforts to limit soaring plastic production.

        The gathering should result in the drafting of a new document laying the foundations of a future treaty text with options on elements with divergent views, but “no surprises” such as new ideas or compromise proposals. This plan aims to address the fact that countries left Geneva without a draft text to work on – something Cordano called a “significant limitation” in his letter.

        “Predictable pathway”

        The meeting in the Kenyan capital will follow a series of virtual consultations every four to six weeks, where heads of country delegations will exchange views on specific topics. A second in-person meeting aimed at finding solutions might take place in early October, depending on the availability of funding.

        Cordano said the roadmap should offer “a predictable pathway” in the lead-up to the next formal negotiating session, which is expected to take place over 10 days at the end of 2026 or early 2027. A host country has yet to be selected, but Climate Home News understands that Brazil, Azerbaijan or Kenya – the home of the UN Environment Programme – have been put forward as options.

        Countries have twice failed to agree on a global plastics treaty at what were meant to be final rounds of negotiations in December 2024 and August 2025.

        Divisions on plastic production

        One of the most divisive elements of the discussions remains what the pact should do about plastic production, which, according to the UN, is set to triple by 2060 without intervention.

        A majority, which includes most European, Latin American, African and Pacific island nations, wants to limit the manufacturing of plastic to “sustainable levels”. But large fossil fuel and petrochemical producers, led by Saudi Arabia, the United States, Russia and India, say the treaty should only focus on managing plastic waste.

        As nearly all plastic is made from planet-heating oil, gas and coal, the sector’s trajectory will have a significant impact on global efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

        Countries still far apart

        After an eight-month hiatus, informal discussions restarted in early March at an informal meeting of about 20 countries hosted by Japan.

        A participant told Climate Home News that, while the gathering had been helpful to test ideas, progress remained “challenging”, with national stances largely unchanged.

        The source added that countries would need to achieve a significant shift in positions in the coming months to make reconvening formal negotiations worthwhile.

        Deep divisions persist as plastics treaty talks restart at informal meeting

        Jacob Kean-Hammerson, global plastics policy lead at Greenpeace USA, said the new roadmap offers an opportunity for countries to “defend and protect the most critical provisions on the table”.

        He said that the document expected after the Nairobi meeting “must include and revisit proposals backed by a large number of countries, especially on plastic production, that have previously been disregarded”.

        “These measures are essential to addressing the crisis at its source and must be reinstated as a key part of the negotiations,” he added.

        The post Roadmap launched to restart deadlocked UN plastics treaty talks appeared first on Climate Home News.

        Roadmap launched to restart deadlocked UN plastics treaty talks

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        Iran War Shows That Doubling Down on Fossil Fuels Is ‘Delusional,’ UN Climate Chief Says

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        Price spikes from the war highlight the necessity of the renewable energy transition for stability and national security, the U.N. official says.

        The Iran war’s disruption to the global energy market should be a wake-up call for countries that continue to rely on fossil fuels, said United Nations climate chief Simon Stiell in a speech on Monday.

        Iran War Shows That Doubling Down on Fossil Fuels Is ‘Delusional,’ UN Climate Chief Says

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