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Wind and solar are growing faster than any other sources of electricity in history, according to new analysis from thinktank Ember.

It says they are now growing fast enough to exceed rising demand, meaning there will be a peak in fossil fuel electricity generation – and emissions – from this year.

As a result, Ember says in its latest annual review of global electricity data that a “new era of falling fossil fuel generation is imminent”.

Renewables met a record 30% of global electricity demand in 2023 and emissions from the sector would already have peaked if not for a record fall in hydropower, the analysis says.

The rise of wind and solar has been stemming the growth of fossil fuel power, which would have been 22% higher in 2023 without them, Ember says. This would have added around 4bn tonnes of carbon dioxide (GtCO2) to annual global emissions.

Nevertheless, the growth of clean electricity sources needs to accelerate to meet the global goal of tripling renewables by 2030, Ember says. 

Meeting this goal would almost halve power sector emissions by the end of the decade, and put the world on a pathway aligned with the 1.5C climate target set in the Paris Agreement

Clean capacity expansion

In 2023, more than twice as much new electricity generation from solar was added around the world as from coal, Ember says.

The share of solar within the global energy mix reached 5.5%, up from 4.6% in 2022, according to Ember. The share of wind stayed steady at 7.8% (2,304 terawatt hours, TWh).

No other sources of electricity generation have ever grown from 100TWh per year to 1,000TWh faster than solar and wind, Ember says. These took just eight and 12 years respectively, as shown in the figure below.

This sits far ahead of gas generation at 28 years, coal at 32 years and hydropower at 39 years. (Nuclear also grew from 100TWh to 1,000TWh over 12 years, the Ember figure shows, but tailed off more quickly than wind).

Global electricity generation technology expansion by technology (TWh), showing the time it has taken for key technologies to grow from 100TWh to 1,000TWh.
Global electricity generation technology expansion by technology (TWh), showing the time it has taken for key technologies to grow from 100TWh to 1,000TWh. Source: Ember.

In response to Ember’s report, Dr Hannah Ritchie, deputy editor at Our World in Data, says in a statement: 

“The main headline from Ember’s 2023 review is that the world sees a bright future for solar power. It is consistently breaking records and maintains its position as the fastest-growing power source in history. This is not only driven by the need to move to clean energy, but by its exciting economics as prices continue to fall. There are early signs that a peak in power sector emissions is imminent. Faster growth in low-carbon energy will be needed to drive down emissions quickly, especially as countries electrify transport, heating and industry.”

Despite solar and wind capacity growth in 2023, generation grew more slowly than expected, rising by 513TWh – a small drop from the 517TWh added in 2022.

Solar generation growth lagged behind record high capacity addition growth of 36%, due to lower sunlight levels in 2023, especially in China, as well as underreporting of solar generation in some countries. This is expected to be temporary, notes Ember.

For wind, there was a fall in generation for the first time since 2001, down 9.1TWh or 2.1%. Low wind conditions kept load factors close to their lowest level in five years, Ember says. 

Glossary
Load factor: A measure of the average output of a power station, relative to its installed capacity. This depends on technical and economic factors. For individual gas, coal or nuclear plants the load factor… Read More

Additionally, higher costs slowed wind capacity additions as developers were forced to delay or cancel projects. More than $30bn in investment was put on hold as at least 10 offshore wind projects in the US and Europe were hit by delays, the Wall Street Journal reported for example. 

In other renewables, hydropower’s share of the electricity mix fell by 0.6 percentage points to 14.3% of the world’s electricity mix, Ember reports. It therefore remains the world’s largest source of clean power, but its share of the mix is now at the lowest since at least 2000, with wind and solar combined sitting just 1 percentage point behind at 13.4% (3,935TWh) .

This is despite 7GW of new hydropower capacity coming online in 2023, according to the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA). 

Ember had previously estimated that there would be a 0.4% reduction in global power sector emissions in 2023, but the fall in hydropower generation prevented this. Instead, emissions from the power sector rose by 1%, as the hydro shortfall was mostly met by coal. 

Wind and solar have expanded from 0.2% of the global electricity mix in 2000 to 13.4% in 2023. Over the last year, their share grew by another 1.5 percentage points, up from 11.9% in 2022.

Demand rises to a record high

While wind and solar were rising fast, 2023 also saw global electricity demand reaching a record high, with an increase in demand of 627TWh, Ember reports. This is the equivalent of adding the entire demand of Canada (607TWh), for example.

With wind and solar having grown by 513TWh in 2023 and nuclear by 46TWh, but hydro falling 88TWh, the remaining demand growth was met by increased fossil fuel use.

This continued the trend of recent years where the gap between clean power growth and rapidly-rising demand was met by expanded electricity generation from fossil fuels.

Moreover, last year’s increase in demand was below the recent average, rising by 2.2%. This was due to a pronounced decrease in demand from OECD countries, including the US (-1.4%) and the European Union (-3.4%).

Elsewhere, there was rapid growth in electricity demand in China, growing nearly 7%. This was the equivalent of the total global demand growth in 2023, Ember notes. 

Looking ahead, demand is likely to grow even faster as energy use is increasingly electrified. Already more than half of global electricity demand growth in 2023 was driven by the rise of electric vehicles (EVs), heat pumps, electrolysers, air conditioning and data centres, the report states.

According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), nearly 14m EVs were registered globally in 2023, bringing the total number on the roads to 40m. This puts electric car sales last year at 3.5m higher than in 2022, a 35% year-on-year increase. 

Ember forecasts that electricity demand will accelerate significantly going forwards, with a growth of 968TWh expected in 2024. Even faster growth would be expected on a path to staying below 1.5C under the IEA’s “NZE” scenario, it notes.

Yet clean electricity generation is expected to grow faster still, with wind,solar and other clean energy sources adding an estimated 1,300TWh in 2024, as shown in the chart below.

This would be more than double the increase in 2023 (493TWh), due to an expected uplift in the US from the Inflation Reduction Act and a reversal in short-term factors such as last year’s hydro drought, the report says. 

As a result of this, Ember estimates that fossil generation will decline by 333TWh or 2% in 2024. Even more importantly, Ember says clean energy growth makes ongoing falls in power sector fossil fuel use “inevitable” – meaning a steady decline in related emissions.

Past and expected future growth in electricity demand
Past and expected future growth in electricity demand (light blue), demand under the IEA’s 1.5C pathway (NZE, dark blue) and generation from clean energy sources including solar, wind, hydro and nuclear (green), terawatt hours. Source: Ember.

Christiana Figueres, former executive secretary of United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and founding partner of Global Optimism, says in a press statement: 

“The fossil fuel era has reached its necessary and inevitable expiration date as these findings show so clearly. This is a critical turning point: Last century’s outdated technologies can no longer compete with the exponential innovations and declining cost curves in renewable energy and storage. All of humanity and the planet upon which we depend will be better off for it.”

Tripling renewables and what comes next

At the COP28 UN climate conference in Dubai in 2023, all countries agreed to contribute to the tripling of global renewable energy capacity by 2030, in what was seen as a “crucial” step for 1.5C. 

Although the COP28 outcome did not include numerical targets, Ember says tripling renewables would mean adding 14,000TWh of annual renewable generation by 2030, compared to 2022 levels. In 2022, renewables accounted for 8,599TWh of the 28,844TWh of electricity generated globally.

After accounting for rising electricity demand, it says this tripling would help cut fossil fuel generation by 6,570TWh, or 37%. With highly-polluting coal power bearing the brunt of this reduction, power sector emissions would fall even faster, by 45% in 2030, it says.

Already, the expansion of renewable energy has slowed fossil fuel growth substantially, as the graph below shows.

After recording average annual growth of 3.5% over the decade 2004-2013, fossil fuel generation only grew by an average of 1.3% in the decade to 2023.

Fossil fuel generation was 22% lower in 2023 than it would have been without solar and wind generation. Between 2015 and 2023, wind and solar have together avoided more than 4GtCO2 emissions, Ember notes.

Global electricity generation from fossil fuels (black), wind and solar (green) and other clean energy technologies (blue) between 2000 and 2023 in TWh.
Global electricity generation from fossil fuels (black), wind and solar (green) and other clean energy technologies (blue) between 2000 and 2023 in TWh. Source: Ember.

Meeting the tripling goal would mean some 60% of global electricity supplies coming from renewable sources by 2030.

This would mark a dramatic shift from current renewable shares. In 2023, 102 countries had a renewable generation share of 30% or higher, up from 98 in 2022. Yet only 69 countries in 2023 had a share in excess of 50%.

Hitting the tripling target would help put “the world on a pathway aligned with the 1.5C climate goal”, says Ember.

Ember’s director of global insights, Dave Jones says in a statement:

“We already know the key enablers that help countries unleash the full potential of solar and wind. There’s an unprecedented opportunity for countries that choose to be at the forefront of the clean energy future.”

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The Senate makes some improvements, but our defense work continues

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The Senate makes some improvements, but our defense work continues

By Flannery Winchester

On Monday, the Senate Finance Committee released its portion of the big budget bill that’s working its way through Congress. 

After the House passed a version of this bill that drastically cuts America’s clean energy tax credits, we’ve been pushing hard on the Senate — and the Senate Finance Committee in particular — to do a better job protecting these important measures.

So, how did this Senate committee do? Indeed, a bit better than the House!

As Heatmap reported, “Senate Republicans widened the aperture slightly compared to the House version of the bill, extending tax credits for geothermal energy, batteries, and hydropower, and preserving ‘transferability’ — a crucial rule that allows companies to sell their tax credits for cash — for years to come.”

These shifts are worth acknowledging and appreciating. These shifts mean that our advocacy work to defend these tax credits is making a meaningful difference in what members of Congress are willing to support. Our engagement is leading to better outcomes for climate and clean energy than there would be if we weren’t engaging on this. 

We’re grateful to all of our volunteers who sent emails, made calls, and published local media over the last few weeks as we pushed hard to show Senators the value of these tax credits.

‘Better’ still isn’t ‘best’ 

Now, that said — even with these improvements from the House version of the bill, the Senate’s bill “would still slash many of the signature programs of the Inflation Reduction Act,” Heatmap reports

We still prefer the clean energy tax credits to be left intact. CCL doesn’t endorse this bill and won’t encourage members of Congress to vote for it. 

But we’re proud of all the ways we’ve helped push for a better outcome than full repeal of these clean energy tax credits, which many Republican lawmakers campaigned on last fall. 

And, crucially, our defense work is not over yet. The chair of the Senate Finance Committee, Sen. Mike Crapo (R-ID), recently told Politico that Republicans are “not done writing the bill” and there are “all kinds of issues that are still being evaluated.”

That means we have another window to continue to advocate for better protection of the clean energy tax credits as negotiations continue. That’s why today we launched a new action for CCLers to email their Republican Senators with a message tailored to this moment, using data that we know makes an impact on these lawmakers. If you’re represented by at least one Republican Senator, send them a message today.

After you’ve contacted your Republican Senators, the next best opportunity to make a difference on this issue is to plan to join us in D.C. for our Summer Conference and Lobby Day next month. Negotiations are ongoing, and we’ll be pushing for the best results possible for climate and clean energy every step of the way. Learn more and register now to secure your lobby spot and bring the discussion from your hometown right to Capitol Hill.

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Guest post: How the world’s rivers are releasing billions of tonnes of ‘ancient’ carbon

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The perception of how the land surface releases carbon dioxide (CO2) typically conjures up images of large-scale deforestation or farmers churning up the soil.

However, there is an intriguing – and underappreciated – role played by the world’s rivers.

Right now, plants and soils absorb about one-third of the CO2 released by human activity, similar to how much the oceans take up.

Over thousands to millions of years, some of this land-fixed carbon can end up being buried in sediments, where it eventually forms rocks.

The waters that feed rivers flow through plants, soils and rocks in landscapes, picking up and releasing carbon as they go.

This process is generally considered to be a sideways “leakage” of the carbon that is being taken up by recent plant growth.

However, the age of this carbon – how long it resided in plants and soils before it made it into rivers and then to the atmosphere – has remained a mystery.

If the carbon being released by rivers is young, then it can be considered a component of relatively quick carbon cycling.

However, if the carbon is old, then it is coming from landscape carbon stores that we thought were stable – and, therefore, represents a way these old carbon stores can be destabilised.

In our new study, published in Nature, we show that almost 60% of the carbon being released to the atmosphere by rivers is from these older sources.

In total, this means the world’s rivers emit more than 7bn tonnes of CO2 to the atmosphere each year – more than the annual fossil-fuel emissions from North America.

This means that there is a significant leak of carbon from old stores that we thought were safely locked away.

Previous work has shown that local land-use change, such as deforestation and climate-driven permafrost thaw, will directly release old carbon into rivers. Whether this is happening at the global scale remains a significant unknown for now.

Who are you calling old?

How do you tell how old carbon is? We employ the same technique that is used to determine the age of an archaeological relic or to verify the age of a vintage wine – that is, radiocarbon dating.

Radiocarbon is the radioactive isotope of carbon, which decays at a known rate. This enables us to determine the age of carbon-based materials dating back to a maximum age of about 60,000 years old.

We know that some of the carbon that rivers release is very young, a product of recent CO2 uptake by plants.

We also know that rivers can receive carbon from much older sources, such as the decomposition of deep soils by microbes and soil organisms or the weathering and erosion of ancient carbon in rocks.

Soil decomposition can release carbon ranging from a few years to tens of thousands of years. An example of very old soil carbon release is from thawing permafrost.

Rock weathering and erosion releases carbon that is millions of years old. This is sometimes referred to as “radiocarbon-dead” because it is so old all the radiocarbon has decayed.

Rivers are emitting old carbon

In our new study, we compile new and existing radiocarbon dates of the CO2 emissions from around 700 stretches of river around the world.

We find that almost 60% of the carbon being released to the atmosphere by rivers is from older sources (hundreds to thousands of years old, or older), such as old soil and ancient rock carbon.

In the figure below, we suggest how different processes taking place within a landscape can release carbon of different ages into rivers, driving its direct emission to the atmosphere.

Diagram representing the processes that drive young (decadal) and old (millennial and petrogenic) CO2 emissions from rivers. Values are given as petagrams of carbon, equivalent to billions of tonnes. Credit: Dean et al. (2025)
Diagram representing the processes that drive young (decadal) and old (millennial and petrogenic) CO2 emissions from rivers. Values are given as petagrams of carbon, equivalent to billions of tonnes. Credit: Dean et al. (2025)

So, while rivers are leaking some modern carbon from plants and soils as part of the landscape processes that remove CO2 from the atmosphere, rivers are also leaking carbon from much older landscape carbon stores.

One major implication of this finding is that modern plants and soils are leaking less carbon back to the atmosphere than previously thought, making them more important for mitigating human-caused climate change.

We find that the proportion of old carbon contributing to river emissions varies across different ecosystems and the underlying geology of the landscapes they drain.

In the figure below, we show that landscapes underlain by sedimentary rocks, which are the most likely to contain substantial ancient (or “petrogenic”) carbon, also had the oldest river emissions. We also show that the type of ecosystem (biome) was also important, although the patterns were less clear.

Radiocarbon content (age) of river carbon emissions in different ecosystems (“Biome”) and in landscapes underlain by different geology (“Lithology”). The lower the amount of radiocarbon (F14Catm), the older the age. Credit: Dean et al. (2025)
Radiocarbon content (age) of river carbon emissions in different ecosystems (“Biome”) and in landscapes underlain by different geology (“Lithology”). The lower the amount of radiocarbon (F14Catm), the older the age. Credit: Dean et al. (2025)

What is obvious is that at least some old carbon was common across most of the rivers we observed, regardless of size and location.

We provide evidence that there is a geological control on river emissions. And the variability in the ecosystem also indicates important controlling factors, such as soil characteristics, vegetation type and climate – especially rainfall patterns and temperature which are known to impact the rate of carbon release from soils and rock weathering.

Are old carbon stores stable?

Long-term carbon storage in soils and rocks is an important process regulating global climate.

For example, the UK’s peatlands are important for regulating climate because they can store carbon for thousands of years. That is why restoring peatlands is such a great climate solution.

Rivers emit more than 7bn tonnes of CO2 to the atmosphere each year – that’s equivalent to about 10-20% of the global emissions from fossil fuel burning annually.

If 60% of river carbon emissions are coming from old carbon stores, then this constitutes a significant leak of carbon from old stores we thought were safely locked away.

Another major implication of our study is that these old carbon stores can be mobilised and routed directly to the atmosphere by rivers, which would exacerbate climate change if these stores are further destabilised.

As can be seen in the figure below, we found that river carbon emissions appeared to be getting older since measurements first began in the 1990s (lower F14Catm means older radiocarbon ages).

We found that river carbon emissions appeared to be getting older since measurements first began in the 1990s.

While there are several caveats to interpreting this trend, it is a warning sign that human activities, especially climate change, could intensify the release of carbon to the atmosphere via rivers.

Given the strong link between soil carbon and river emissions, if this trend is a sign of human activity disturbing the global carbon cycle, it is likely due to landscape disturbance mobilising soil carbon.

The age of carbon emissions from rivers appears to be getting older since measurements began in the early 1990s. Icons show dissolved inorganic carbon (grey dots), CO2 (orange squares) and methane (grey crosses). The dashed horizontal line indicates F14Catm = 1.0, for which F14C content is in equilibrium with atmospheric levels in the year of sample collection. Credit: Dean et al. (2025)
The age of carbon emissions from rivers appears to be getting older since measurements began in the early 1990s. Icons show dissolved inorganic carbon (grey dots), CO2 (orange squares) and methane (grey crosses). The dashed horizontal line indicates F14Catm = 1.0, for which F14C content is in equilibrium with atmospheric levels in the year of sample collection. Credit: Dean et al. (2025)

Using rivers to monitor global soil carbon storage

Rivers collect waters from across the landscapes they flow through and therefore provide a tool to track processes happening out of sight.

A drop of water landing in a landscape travels through soils and rock before reaching the river, and its chemistry, including its radiocarbon age, reflects the processes occurring within the landscape.

Monitoring the age of carbon in rivers can therefore tell you a lot about whether their landscapes are storing or releasing carbon.

This has been shown to help identify carbon loss in degraded tropical peatlands, thawing Arctic permafrost and due to deforestation.

River radiocarbon is sensitive to environmental change and could therefore be a powerful monitoring tool for detecting the onset of climate tipping points or the success of landscape restoration projects, for example.

While we present data spread out across the world, there are quite a few gaps for important regions, notably where glacier change is happening and others where droughts and flood frequencies are changing.

These include areas with low amounts of data in Greenland, the African continent, the Arctic and Boreal zones, the Middle East, eastern Europe, western Russia, Central Asia, Australasia and South America outside of the Amazon.

All these regions have the potential to store carbon in the long-term and we do not yet know if these carbon stores are stable or not under present and future climate change.

River radiocarbon offers a powerful method to keep tabs on the health of global ecosystems both now and into the future.

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Guest post: Why 2024’s global temperatures were unprecedented, but not surprising

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Human-caused greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in 2024 continued to drive global warming to record levels.

This is the stark picture that emerges in the third edition of the “Indicators of Global Climate Change” (IGCC) report, published in Earth System Science Data.

IGCC tracks changes in the climate system between Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) science reports.

In doing so, the IGCC fills the gap between the IPCC’s sixth assessment (AR6) in 2021 and the seventh assessment, expected in 2028.

Following IPCC methods, this year’s assessment brings together a team of over 60 international scientists, including former IPCC authors and curators of vital global datasets.

As in previous years, it is accompanied by a user-friendly data dashboard focusing on the main policy-relevant climate indicators, including GHG emissions, human-caused warming, the rate of temperature change and the remaining global carbon budget.

Below, we explain this year’s findings, highlighting the role that humans are playing in some of the fundamental changes the global climate has seen in recent years.

Headline results from an analysis of key climate indicators in 2024, compared to the IPCC AR6 climate science report. Source: Forster et al. (2025)

(For previous IGCC reports, see Carbon Brief’s detailed coverage in 2023 and 2024.)

An ‘unexceptional’ record high

Last year likely saw global average surface temperatures hit at least 1.5C above pre-industrial levels. This aligns with other major assessments of the Earth’s climate.

Our best estimate is a rise of 1.52C (with a range of 1.39-1.65C), of which human activity contributed around 1.36C. The rest is the result of natural variability in the climate system, which also plays a role in shaping global temperatures from one year to the next.

Our estimate of 1.52C differs slightly from the 1.55C given by the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) state of the global climate 2024 report, published earlier this year. This is because they make slightly different selections on which of the available global land and ocean temperature datasets to include. (The warming estimate has varied by similar amounts in past years and future work will aim to harmonise the approaches.)

The height of 2024’s temperatures, while unprecedented in at least the last 2,000 years, is not surprising. Given the high level of human-induced warming, we might currently expect to see annual temperatures above 1.5C on average one year in six.

However, with 2024 following an El Niño year, waters in the North Atlantic were warmer than average. These conditions raise this likelihood to an expectation that 1.5C is surpassed every other year.

From now on, we should regard 2024’s observed temperatures as unexceptional. Temperature records will continue to be broken as human-caused temperature rise also increases.

Longer-term temperature change

Despite observed global temperatures likely rising by more than 1.5C in 2024, this does not equate to a breach of the Paris Agreement’s temperature goal, which refers to long-term temperature change caused by human activity.

IGCC also looks at how temperatures are changing over the most recent decade, in line with IPCC assessments.

Over 2015-24, global average temperatures were 1.24C higher than pre-industrial levels. Of this, 1.22C was caused by human activity. So, essentially, all the global warming seen over the past decade was caused by humans.

Observed global average temperatures over 2015-24 were also 0.31C warmer than the previous decade (2005-14). This is unsurprising given the high rates of human-caused warming over the same period, reaching a best estimate of 0.27C per decade.

This rate of warming is large and unprecedented. Over land, where people live, temperatures are rising even faster than the global average, leading to record extreme temperatures.

But every fraction of a degree matters, increasing climate impacts and loss and damage that is already affecting billions of people.

Driven by emissions

Undoubtedly, these changes are being caused by GHG emissions remaining at an all-time high.

Over the last decade, human activities have released, on average, the equivalent of around 53bn tonnes of CO2 into the atmosphere each year. (The figure of 53bn tonnes expresses the total warming effect of CO2 and other greenhouse gases, such as methane and nitrous oxide, using CO2 as a reference point.)

Emissions have shown no sign of the peak by 2025 and rapid decline to net-zero required to limit global warming to 1.5C with no or limitedovershoot”.

Most of these emissions were from fossil fuels and industry. There are signs that energy use and emissions are rising due to air conditioning use during summer heatwaves. Last year also saw high levels of emissions from tropical deforestation due to forest fires, partly related to dry conditions caused by El Niño.

Notably, emissions from international aviation – the sector with the steepest drop in emissions during the Covid-19 pandemic – returned to pre-pandemic levels.

The amount of CO2 in the atmosphere, alongside the other major GHGs of methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O), is continuing to build up to record levels. Their concentrations have increased by 3.1, 3.4 and 1.7%, respectively, since the 2019 values reported in the last IPCC assessment.

At the same time, aerosol emissions, which have a cooling effect, are continuing to fall as a result of important efforts to tackle air pollution. This is currently adding to the rate of GHG warming.

Notably, cutting CH4 emissions, which are also short-lived in the atmosphere, could offset this rise. But, again, there is no real sign of a fall – despite major initiatives such as the Global Methane Pledge.

The effect of all human drivers of climate change on the Earth’s energy balance is measured as “radiative forcing”. Our estimate of this radiative forcing in 2024 is 2.97 Watts per square metre (W/m2), 9% above the value recorded in 2019 that was quoted in the last IPCC assessment.

This is shown in the figure below, which illustrates the percentage change in an array of climate indicators since the data update given in the last IPCC climate science report.

Bar chart: Key Indicators of Global Climate Change: Percentage change since IPCC Sixth Assessment Report
Percentage changes in key climate indicators in 2024, compared to the IPCC AR6 climate science report. The remaining carbon budget given on the right is the only indicator to show a reduction and is the change since IPCC AR6, presented as a shrinking box. Source: Forster et al. (2025)

Continued emissions and rising temperatures are meanwhile rapidly eating into the remaining carbon budget, the total amount of CO2 that can be emitted if global warming is to be kept below 1.5C.

Our central estimate of the remaining carbon budget from the start of 2025 is 130bn tonnes of CO2.

This has fallen by almost three-quarters since the start of 2020. It would be exhausted in a little more than three years of global emissions, at current levels.

However, given the uncertainties involved in calculating the remaining carbon budget, the actual value could lie between 30 and 320bn tonnes, meaning that it could also be exhausted sooner – or later than expected.

Beyond global temperatures

Our assessment also shows how surplus heat is accumulating in the Earth’s system at an accelerating rate, becoming increasingly out of balance and driving changes around the world.

The data and their changes are displayed on a dedicated Climate Change Tracker platform, shown below.

Webpage screenshot: Indicators of Global Climate Change 2024
Snapshot of Climate Change Tracker

The radiative forcing of 2.97 W/m2 adds heat to the climate system. As the world warms in response, much of this excess heat radiates to space, until a new balance is restored. The residual level of heating is termed the Earth’s “energy imbalance” and is an indication of how far out of balance the climate system is and the warming still to come.

This residual rate of heat entering the Earth system has now approximately doubled from levels seen in the 1970s and 1980s, to around 1W/m2 on average during the period 2012-24.

Although the ocean is storing an estimated 91% of this excess heat, mitigating some of the warming we would otherwise see at the Earth’s surface, it brings other impacts, including sea level rise and marine heatwaves.

Global average sea level rise, from both the melting of ice sheets and thermal expansion due to deep ocean warming, is included in the IGCC assessment for the first time.

We find that it has increased by around 26mm over the last six years (2019-24), more than double the long-term rate. This is the indicator that shows the clearest evidence of an acceleration.

Sea level rise is making storm surges more damaging and causing more coastal erosion, having the greatest impact on low-lying coastal areas. The 2019 IPCC special report on the oceans and cryosphere estimated that more than one billion people would be living in such low-lying coastal zones by 2050.

Multiple indicators

Overall, our indicators provide multiple lines of evidence all pointing in the same direction to provide a clear and consistent – but unsurprising and worsening – picture of the climate system.

It is also now inevitable that global temperatures will reach 1.5C of long-term warming in the next few years unless society takes drastic, transformative action – both in cutting GHG emissions and stopping deforestation.

Every year of delay brings reaching 1.5C – or even higher temperatures – closer.

This year, countries are unveiling new “nationally determined contributions” (NDCs), the national climate commitments aimed at collectively reducing GHG emissions and tackling climate change in line with the Paris Agreement.

While the plans put forward so far represent a step in the right direction, they still fall far short of what is needed to significantly reduce, let alone stop, the rate of warming.

At the same time, evidence-based decision-making relies on international expertise, collaboration and global datasets.

Our annual update relies on data from NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and input from many of their highly respected scientists. It is this type of collaboration that allows scientists to generate well-calibrated global datasets that can be used to produce trusted data on changes in the Earth system.

It would not be possible to maintain the consistent long-term datasets employed in our study if their work is interrupted.

At a time when the planet is changing at the fastest rate since records began, we are at risk of failing to track key indicators – such as greenhouse gas concentrations or deep ocean temperatures – and losing core expertise that is vital for understanding the data.

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