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With the global energy transition looming large, many have been setting their sights on materials critical to the energy transition, such as copper, lithium, or uranium.

Nickel is yet another mineral on that list, albeit one that seems to have largely flown under most investors’ radars thus far.

It’s understandable why that’s been the case – after all, the primary use for mined nickel has long been industrial, with over three-quarters of global nickel demand being for things like alloy production or electroplating.

Nickel Usage by Industry

However, there’s one avenue of “green” demand for nickel that’s been slowly yet steadily driving up consumption – and that’s electric vehicle (EV) batteries.

  • Last year, the average battery EV sold contained 25.3 kilograms of nickel – and that number has been going up year over year

Nickel is one of the key components of the lithium-ion batteries that power EVs worldwide, thanks to its unique physical and chemical properties.

In order to be used in an electric vehicle, nickel must first be refined to extremely high purities, creating what’s known as “battery grade” nickel. Following this, it then needs to be dissolved in sulphuric acid to create nickel sulphate, which can then be used to produce battery cathodes.

Nickel’s high energy density, which allows it to hold more charge for less weight, makes high-nickel battery chemistries more desirable in EV batteries. While the first iterations of the lithium-ion battery used equal proportions of nickel with manganese and cobalt, modern ones use as much nickel as manganese and cobalt combined.

And as technology continues to progress, it’s expected that the ratio will rise to as much as 80% nickel, or even more.

That’s why nickel is now on the critical minerals list of several countries including the US, the EU, and Japan.

The Lights Are Green for Nickel.

EV manufacturers are adding more and more nickel to their batteries each year in order to increase the efficiency and range of their vehicles.

  • EVs sold in 2023 contained 8% more nickel, on average, than those sold a year previous

Combine that with the fact that EV sales are expected to continue growing at a breakneck pace, and what you end up with is very healthy outlook for long-term nickel demand.

Below you can see two charts created by the International Energy Agency. The one on the left forecasts nickel demand growth out to 2050 based on currently existing climate pledges, while the one on the right shows the same but in a more aggressive net zero scenario:

Nickel Demand Outlook

You can see that, regardless of which scenario we consider, nickel demand is expected to more than double over the next decade – the only question is how fast we get there.

Even in the conservative case where no more climate pledges are made in the coming years, as in the chart on the left, EV and cleantech demand for nickel is still expected to massively drive nickel’s demand growth.

  • Last year, total nickel demand amounted to 3.1 million tonnes, of which 478,000 came from EVs and cleantech. This latter portion is expected to grow to 2 million tonnes of nickel demand by 2030 and 3.4 million tonnes by 2040 in the base case – and it could easily be more, if governments around the world pursue additional climate targets

While all scenarios do see nickel consumption plateauing and falling off slightly towards the tail end of 2050 due to forecast lower demand for nickel-rich battery chemistries, there’s still a 9x increase in nickel demand for EV batteries and other cleantech even in the conservative case.

Simply put, the future for nickel looks tremendous.

Nickel Prices

However, the recent price performance of nickel seems to tell a different story:

And that’s because of the other half of the picture: nickel supply.

But There’s a Supply Jam . . .

Despite how strong the demand outlook for nickel looks, there’s no escaping the fact that right now, supply far outstrips demand.

And there’s exactly one factor we can point to for this: Indonesia.

Global Nickel Production

In the past ten years, Indonesia has accelerated the pace of nickel mine development domestically, thanks to heavy Chinese investment.

  • In 2014, Indonesia produced just 7% of the world’s nickel, with just two nickel smelters. 10 years later in 2023, Indonesia now accounts for just over 50% of global production, with 43 operational smelters and another 52 on the way

Indonesia received $7.3 billion in foreign investment from China’s Belt and Road Initiative in 2023, the largest of any participating country. 90% of the nickel smelters in Indonesia were built by Chinese companies, and most of the mines are Chinese owned as well.

Thanks to the extensive Chinese involvement, the lower labor costs and environmental standards for nickel mines in Indonesia have also led to lower production costs. Nickel from Indonesian mines is cheaper to produce than it is on other countries like Australia or Canada.

This breakneck growth of Indonesian production, during a weak price environment where other producers have scaled back, has contributed to Indonesia’s rise to prominence as the top global nickel producer.

Nickel Production versus Prices

It’s expected that the nickel market will see a surplus of 36,000 tonnes this year, according to a recent report from Macquarie. And it’s unlikely that the nickel market will balance out until after 2025.

Further Down the Road, the Outlook Looks Rosy

Despite how the supply and demand balance looks right now, however, it’s not expected to stay that way as we near the end of the decade.

Nickel Mining Requirements

As the chart above shows, based on current announced mine supply, the nickel market is expected to enter a supply deficit shortly after 2025 – and this shortfall is expected to widen considerably in the decade following, even in the conservative scenario (the solid line).

In other words, even though the current low nickel price environment is discouraging investment, it’ll also create more opportunities down the road thanks to the eventual supply-demand gap that will widen due to the current lack of interest in nickel mining.

Furthermore, as you might recall, in order to be used in EV batteries nickel needs to be further processed into nickel sulphate, which is something not all raw nickel refineries are built to do.

Nickel Sulphate Supply and Demand

The supply shortfall for nickel sulphate is expected to see an even wider gap than for mined nickel. That said, processing facilities for nickel sulphate can be built on the order of 18-24 months – much quicker than a mine, which is often a years-long process that can get bogged down in studies and permitting.

Even so, the sheer amount of additional nickel sulphate supply required represents yet another opportunity in the nickel markets.

In the near term, it’s likely that nickel prices will continue to stay weak as supply continues to outpace demand. As we near the end of the decade and the push towards net zero continues to accelerate, however, the projected supply-demand gap might just leave the nickel market in significantly different shape than how it looks now.

The post The Ultimate Guide to Nickel appeared first on Carbon Credits.

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Carbon Footprint

Insetting vs Offsetting: Which Actually Counts Toward Your Scope 3 Targets

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The accounting differences that decide whether your nature investment shows up in inventory, in BVCM, or nowhere at all.

The question reaches a procurement team about three weeks before the next sustainability committee meeting. Someone has read about insetting. Someone else has just signed off on an offset purchase. The CSO wants to know if the two are interchangeable. The answer is no, and the GHG Protocol Land Sector and Removals Standard is the reason why.

This article walks through what each term means at audit-grade specificity, what the standards actually say about how each gets counted, and how to decide which tool fits which target. The insetting vs offsetting question is one of the most-searched in corporate climate strategy, and one of the most poorly answered. By the end of this piece, you should be able to brief a committee on the difference without notes.

The two definitions, in plain English

Offsetting means buying carbon credits generated outside your value chain and retiring them against your residual emissions. The reduction happens somewhere else, financed by you, and the credit is the receipt.

Insetting means investing in emission reductions or removals inside your own value chain, typically with suppliers, where the reduction is directly linked to the products and services you buy. The reduction happens inside the boundary of your Scope 3 inventory, and the accounting treatment is fundamentally different.

The shorthand from the University of Oxford’s Nature-based Insetting Initiative is useful: insetting is what you do with the supply chain you have; offsetting is what you do with the supply chain you do not have.

What the GHG Protocol Land Sector Standard actually says

The GHG Protocol Land Sector and Removals Standard, finalised in 2024 after a multi-year pilot, sets the rules for how land-based emission reductions and removals enter corporate inventories. The Standard distinguishes between inventory accounting (Scope 1, 2, and 3) and project or intervention accounting (a separate methodology for crediting).

For insetting, the practical implication is that supplier-level interventions, when properly measured and attributed, can reduce your Scope 3 category 1 (purchased goods and services) emissions in your inventory. The reduction is not a credit retired against the inventory; it is a lower inventory number, period.

For offsetting, the credit is retired separately. It can be reported as a contribution toward a net-zero claim under the SBTi Beyond Value Chain Mitigation framework or as part of a VCMI Carbon Integrity claim, but it does not lower the inventory number.

A practical consequence: if your Science Based Target requires a 50% absolute reduction in Scope 3 emissions by 2030, insetting moves you toward the target. Offsetting does not. This single point of difference reshapes the procurement decision.

When insetting counts toward Scope 3 (and when it does not)

Insetting counts toward Scope 3 only when several conditions are met:

  • The intervention must occur with an entity in your value chain.
  • The emissions reduction or removal must be measured against a defensible baseline.
  • The reduction must be attributed to your share of that supplier’s output, not double-counted with other buyers.
  • It must follow the inventory accounting rules in the GHG Protocol Land Sector Standard, not the project accounting rules used to generate credits.

The most common failure mode is double counting. If your supplier sells the same reduction as a credit on the voluntary market and also reports it to you as a Scope 3 reduction, the math breaks. The Standard requires you to address this risk, typically by purchasing and retiring the supplier-issued credit as part of your inventory or by contractual provisions that prevent the supplier from selling the reduction twice.

When insetting does not count toward Scope 3: when the intervention sits with a supplier you do not buy from, when the baseline is not defensible, when the attribution is unclear, or when the documentation does not survive audit. Those cases default to Beyond Value Chain Mitigation, which is still useful but operates on a different ledger.

The procurement and supplier engagement question

Insetting is harder than offsetting. That is the unfashionable truth most buyers eventually confront. Offsetting is a transaction; insetting is a relationship.

To run an insetting program, you need supplier mapping precise enough to know which farms or facilities sit at which Scope 3 boundary. You need an engagement model that gets suppliers to participate, which usually requires multi-year commitments and shared economics. You need an MRV architecture that measures the right things and produces audit-ready documentation. And you need a contractual structure that prevents double counting and protects both sides.

The trade-off you receive in return is significant. Reductions count against your inventory rather than your residual. Supplier relationships deepen, which protects sourcing continuity. Yield and quality improvements often follow regenerative interventions, which reduces your input cost over time. And the regulatory file, under CSRD, CSDDD, EUDR, and the SBTi FLAG Guidance, is materially stronger.

Choosing the right tool for the right target

A practical decision rule. If your target is a science-based Scope 3 reduction and you operate in a FLAG sector or source FLAG commodities, insetting is the structurally correct tool. If your target is a net-zero claim that includes neutralising hard-to-abate residual emissions outside your value chain, BVCM via high-integrity offsets is the structurally correct tool. Most companies with material Scope 3 exposure need both, in different proportions, sequenced over time.

The sequencing matters. Insetting takes longer to stand up but produces a permanent reduction in the inventory. Offsetting can be transacted faster but does not change the inventory and now sits under tighter claim restrictions. Treat them as complementary tools with different jobs, not as substitutes. The Accountability Framework Initiative and the IUCN Global Standard for Nature-based Solutions both provide useful guardrails for the insetting side, with biodiversity, human rights, and benefit-sharing requirements that go beyond carbon math.

If you are mapping a Scope 3 reduction roadmap and need to scope which interventions count toward your inventory versus which sit in Beyond Value Chain Mitigation, the carbon and sustainability experts at Carbon Credit Capital can help you structure a nature-based supply chain investment program that fits your FLAG exposure, your target architecture, and your audit horizon. Schedule a consultation.

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Carbon Footprint

Net zero needs nature: a carbon credit guide

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Net zero is often described as a balancing act: cut what you can, account for the rest, and reach zero on the ledger. That framing is useful, but it leaves something out. It treats every tonne of carbon as interchangeable and every route to zero as equally sound, while the science tells a more specific story.

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Carbon Footprint

Deforestation in Malawi: causes and solutions

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Malawi has lost a striking share of its forests over the past three decades. Woodlands that once covered well over a third of the country now cover less than a quarter, and the pressure on what remains is increasing. Behind those figures sit two practical questions: what is driving the loss, and what reverses it?

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