More energy-efficient air-conditioning units could, together, save Indian households ₹69bn ($724m) a year, according to new analysis by Carbon Brief.
Climate change-induced extreme heat is driving up the use of air conditioning across the country, as people try to cope with record-breaking temperatures.
This demand, however, is straining the country’s power grid and raising emissions.
On 21 May 2026, India’s power demand reached a record 270 gigawatts (GW), fuelled by a heatwave sweeping across the country and a surge in air-conditioning demand.
Carbon Brief’s analysis shows that, if the roughly 15m households expected to buy a new air conditioning (AC) unit this year bought a “five-star” rated one instead of a “two-star”, it would cut carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by nearly 5m tonne (Mt).
The installation of AC units in India is currently uneven and ongoing challenges remain, predominantly around the cost of the technology.
Below, Carbon Brief looks at what more energy-efficient models would mean for India’s emissions and household electricity savings, as well as opportunities and barriers to cooling access.
Record heat
Historically, India has had one of the lowest levels of access to cooling in the world. As the nation continues to see an increasing number of heatwave days, this is shifting.
For example, India saw record-breaking heat in 2024 and nearly 14m air conditioners sold – up from 10m in 2023.
Between 2021 and 2023, AC sales volumes increased by more than 25% year-on-year in India.
While solar power is playing an increasing role in meeting the daytime electricity demand from these units, coal power plays a significant role in powering air conditioners on warm nights.
By 2037, India’s space-cooling demand was expected to grow nearly 11-fold in a business-as-usual scenario compared to 2017, according to the government’s 2019 India Cooling Action Plan (ICAP).
According to a World Bank study, this would mean a new air-conditioning unit is bought every 15 seconds in India. There would also be a 435% increase in annual greenhouse gas emissions related to air conditioning in the country over the next two decades.
The chart below shows the ICAP’s estimated rise in air conditioner units in India from 2021 to 2037. The blue line represents a high-growth scenario, while the green line corresponds to a low-growth scenario.

Growing demand
Despite the upswing in installations over recent years, it remains rare for households to have access to air conditioning in India.
According to India’s national sample survey in 2020-21, only 4.9% of Indian households owned air conditioning, with ownership concentrated among the urban rich. As of 2024, this had increased to around 8%.
(Ownership of evaporative air coolers is significantly higher than it is for air conditioning, particularly in the arid north and central Indian states, where humidity is low.)
Dr Nikit Abhyankar, an associate adjunct professor at the Goldman School of Public Policy at the University of California Berkeley, tells Carbon Brief that India is set to add between 100-150m new air conditioners in the next 10 years, which could go up to 200m “if you factor in the crazy heatwaves”.
According to his research, the two factors that drive “dramatic” sales of ACs are income and extreme temperatures.
He tells Carbon Brief:
“The moment you cross a specific income threshold, the first appliance you buy is an air conditioner, no matter whether it’s hot or not. And the moment there are extreme temperatures, the next summer, you see a huge wave of new ACs being purchased.”
With that in mind, he says India offers a “classic lock-in opportunity”, since 90% of the air conditioners that will exist in 2040 have yet to be purchased, particularly given the tendency among Indian users to repair and reuse units. Abhyankar continues:
“That’s why making sure that first AC purchase is the most efficient one is very important in India, because that AC is not going out of the market in seven years.”
Energy-efficient units
With the number of air-conditioning units in India on the rise, ensuring they are as energy-efficient as possible could save households money, while cutting emissions and electricity demand.
India’s Bureau of Energy Efficiency (BEE) mandates star ratings for air conditioners to indicate their efficiency. It uses a metric called the Indian seasonal energy efficiency ratio (ISEER), which is based on an India-specific temperature distribution.
Ratings range from one to five stars, with the latter being the most energy-efficient.
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), three-star units “dominate” India’s air-conditioning market, “possibly due to [up-front] cost considerations”, while four- and five-star units account for a minority of sales.
The chart below shows AC production volumes in India between 2019 and 2023 by energy-efficiency star rating, according to the IEA.

Carbon Brief analysis finds that buying a five-star air conditioner could cut the emissions associated with generating electricity to run the unit by around 300 kilograms (kg) of CO2 per year, when compared to a two-star unit.
As such, if all 15m air-conditioning units expected to be sold in 2026 were five-star, it could save 5MtCO2 annually.
This is roughly equivalent to the emissions from an average-sized coal-fired power plant, the analysis shows.
In a year, the lower electricity demand from more efficient units could mean ₹69bn ($724m) in cost savings for consumers, as shown in the chart below. Each affected household could save ₹4,600 ($48) annually on their bills.

There are also significant savings from five-star units compared with three-stars, amounting to around 150kgCO2 and ₹2,300 ($24) per household per year.
Carbon Brief’s illustrative analysis is supported by a new working paper from the India Energy and Climate Center (IECC) at UC Berkeley, which looks at the longer-term impact of AC demand on electricity demand and emissions, as well as grid investment costs and consumer savings.
Released in May 2026, it says that room air conditioners already account for nearly a quarter of India’s peak electricity demand (60-70GW).
The authors estimate that AC-driven peak power demand could reach 120GW by 2030 and 180GW by 2035, pushing India’s power grid beyond its capacity. They warn:
“Even with all under-construction generation and storage projects online, power shortages are expected as early as 2028.”
Sustained energy-efficiency improvements, however, could reduce this cooling-driven peak power demand by 10GW by 2030 and 47GW by 2035.
They estimate that these improvements could help avoid nearly $80bn in power infrastructure investments and deliver $9-25bn in consumer savings between 2028 and 2035, while reducing emissions by 12MtCO2 per year by 2030.
Rolling out five-star units
While there are emissions and cost benefits to five-star air-conditioning units compared to the alternatives, the higher upfront costs can still present a barrier.
These more energy-efficient units can pay for their higher purchase price over a three-year period, but on average cost ₹5,000 to ₹8,000 ($52-84) more upfront than a three-star unit.
Researchers at the Indian climate thinktank Sustainable Futures Collaborative (SFC) called on Indian state and national governments to create a “highly-targeted active cooling” programme last year.
They recommended deploying a subsidy or a large-scale purchase programme that allows families to buy energy-efficient air conditioners. This, they said, must be targeted at portions of Indian cities with the highest heat risk, determined by the vulnerability assessments of their heat action plans.
Climate adaptation researcher at King’s College London and SFC author Aditya Valiathan Pillai tells Carbon Brief:
“Commit money to air conditioning for the poorest-of-the-poor: subsidise ultra-efficient ACs and electricity, but give them cool air at the cheapest possible, most efficient rate.
“Because these are the people running the economy, which is not going to function in a heatwave if these people are dying or unable to work.”
Methodology
Carbon Brief’s analysis is based on official energy consumption, power pricing and emissions data from different ministries and government institutions.
It uses BEE’s “search and compare” tool to list all five-star and three-star “variable speed” or “inverter” air conditioners, given their enhanced efficiency and ability to regulate humidity.
This was then filtered to air conditioners with a capacity of 1.5t, which studies say are most preferred by Indian households.
Using the same tool, Carbon Brief then listed all “fixed speed” two-star ACs of a similar capacity (1.45t to 1.55t), given that these account for the majority of two-star ACs available on the market and favoured by renters.
Based on expert estimates, the analysis lists the energy consumption of each of these key categories in kilowatt-hours (kWh) and added 15% to account for losses in power transmission and distribution.
The carbon intensity of Indian electricity is specified by the CO2 baseline database published by India’s Central Electricity Authority in November 2025.
The number of hours per year a household’s air conditioning runs is estimated at 1,600 hours by the BEE.
Carbon Brief uses a marginal electricity tariff of ₹10 per kWh to calculate annual electricity consumption costs.
This is because average electricity tariffs vary significantly from state to state, but especially by energy consumption “slabs”, with AC use pushing bills into higher-tariff rates.
For instance, in Maharashtra, electricity tariffs for domestic households range from ₹1.52 per unit for below-poverty-line households to ₹16.64 per unit for homes using more than 500 units of electricity.
Savings from higher energy efficiency, therefore, reduce electricity consumption in the highest electricity tariff block, where rates are the most expensive.
Cooling hours
Air-conditioner usage varies across India’s climatic zones. The ISEER metric that underpins star ratings estimates that, on average, a household air conditioner runs for 1, 600 hours a year.
This estimate is based on 2014 weather data for 54 cities across India, to see how many hours in a year temperatures exceed 24C.
Refrigerant emissions
The analysis only accounts for emissions from electricity generation and does not factor in “fugitive” emissions from refrigerant leaks.
These are significant, given that refrigerants are greenhouse gases that can have hundreds of times more warming potential than CO2.
According to a study published by climate thinktank iForest last year, Indian households with air conditioning are refilling their refrigerants more frequently than the global average.
It estimates that greenhouse gas emissions from refrigerant release from India’s air conditioners were 52Mt of CO2 equivalent (CO2e) in 2024, likely to increase to 84MtCO2e by 2035.
Cooling access and population data
Government estimates vary on how many Indian households do not own a single air conditioner, with little publicly available data differentiating between cooling devices and a delayed national census.
India’s national sample survey, published in 2020-21, is the only one of its kind in recent years to separate air-conditioner ownership from air cooler ownership, estimating that only 4.9% of all Indian households owned an air conditioner.
The post Analysis: Energy-efficient air conditioning could save Indian homes 69bn rupees a year appeared first on Carbon Brief.
Analysis: Energy-efficient air conditioning could save Indian homes 69bn rupees a year
Climate Change
A supercharged El Niño is coming – are we ready?
Shaun Martin is vice president for adaptation and resilience at the World Wildlife Fund (WWF) in the United States.
“Adapt or perish, now as ever, is nature’s inexorable imperative.” A century later, H.G. Wells’s warning reads less like philosophy and more like a prediction for the near future.
Last week, the World Meteorological Organization forecast that a powerful El Niño – a naturally occurring climate pattern marked by unusually warm ocean temperatures in the Pacific – will develop in 2026, becoming potentially one of the strongest on record, capable of triggering floods, droughts and extreme heat across the globe.
This warning should make one thing crystal clear: we need to move faster to adapt to the rapidly changing climate.
Scientists warn El Niño could intensify climate extremes in 2026
What does it mean to take climate change adaptation seriously? It means recognising that building resilience to increasing hazards must inform planning and policy-making efforts that go beyond trying to reduce climate emissions.
Rising climate risks like extended heatwaves or massive bursts of rainfall should guide decisions about where homes are built, which crops are grown, and how natural resources are managed. We need to invest in systems that withstand and recover from climate-driven shocks rather than collapse under them.
Impacts arriving ahead of schedule
For decades, climate action has been anchored in mitigation – reducing emissions to prevent future harm. That work remains essential. But it is operating on a slower timeline than the impacts we are now experiencing in real time and ahead of schedule. The strengthening 2026 El Niño makes that mismatch impossible to ignore.
In the first few months of 2026 more than 600 thousand square miles of forest land burned globally – the equivalent of 81 million football fields – the highest on record for this point in the year. Ocean surface temperatures are at historic highs, Arctic sea ice has hit record lows, and multiple regions have experienced extreme, out-of-season heat.
The strengthening of El Niño later this year could push these conditions even further, potentially making 2026 one of the hottest years ever recorded.
El Niño expected to bring next record-hot year as soon as 2027
The climate today is fundamentally different than the one that shaped past El Niño events. Heatwaves run hotter. Droughts last longer. Rainfall increasingly comes in destructive bursts. Even historically cooler periods no longer offer relief.
El Niño’s counterpart, La Niña, now occurs in a warmer world with ocean temperatures during cooler La Niña phases exceeding those seen during past “super” El Niño events like 1998 and 2016. Yesterday’s extremes have become today’s baselines, and this new level of turbulence will test the limits of preparedness across the country.
Pragmatic preparations to build resilience
When it comes to policy-making, the focus should be on strengthening the health and resilience of communities facing growing climate risks. Across the United States, communities are already feeling the impacts of the quickly changing climate. Preparing for and withstanding what’s ahead is not ideological; it’s pragmatic.
WHO issues new guidance on heat-health action plans, as El Niño sets in
Planning that prioritises resilience, modernises infrastructure and invests in adaptation helps safeguard food systems, protect homes and supply chains, and reinforce critical infrastructure. Keeping the strength and stability of local communities at the centre of decision-making is essential to building a more secure and resilient future.
Conservation organisations have long emphasised that adapting to climate change is not just about reacting to disasters, but about building resilience in ways that support people and nature. That means working with communities, governments and businesses to reduce vulnerability to natural hazards, strengthen local capacity, and deploy solutions that improve nature’s ability to protect us.
Adaptation rooted in nature
In coastal regions, for example, mangrove forests act as natural defences – absorbing storm surge, stabilising shorelines and protecting nearby communities.
In Mexico, World Wildlife Fund and its partners are using networks of sensors, drones and artificial intelligence to monitor mangrove health and weather in real time. The project analyses how these ecosystems respond to storms, heat and changing water conditions, helping communities and policymakers adapt their conservation strategies accordingly. It is a glimpse of what climate change adaptation looks like at its best: locally grounded, data-driven and rooted in nature.
Climate risk is not a single problem to solve but a system to manage. Addressing it requires rethinking and integrating conservation, economic development and disaster risk reduction into a single, yet multi-dimensional, agenda focused on resilience.
It will also expose vulnerabilities in infrastructure, stress-test disaster response systems and challenge assumptions about what constitutes a “normal” climate year. And it will remind us that even the best forecasts cannot reduce impacts – only preparation can.
The problem is not that we have ignored climate change. It is that we have misjudged its timeline. These hazards are no longer a future risk to be avoided; they are a present reality to be managed. H.G. Wells’ warning remains. We need to adapt or perish, now as ever.
The post A supercharged El Niño is coming – are we ready? appeared first on Climate Home News.
https://www.climatechangenews.com/2026/07/06/a-supercharged-el-nino-is-coming-are-we-ready/
Climate Change
Greenpeace Pictures of the Month
From a striking sand installation in Kenya, to tens of thousands of people protesting against the Altri/Greenfiber mega-cellulose plant project in Spain, here are some of our favourite recent images from Greenpeace work around the world.
Kenya

Volunteers and community members gathered at Pirates Beach/ Jomo Kenyatta Beach in Mombasa around a sand installation carrying the message “The Ocean Connects Us All” to highlight the interconnected challenges facing coastal communities across Africa and the need for ocean protection.



Mexico

In the context of the World Cup, Greenpeace Mexico activists staged a peaceful protest at Terminal 2 of Mexico City International Airport (AICM) to remind people that the climate crisis is already changing the conditions in which we live, work, and play. With the messages “The game has extra time, the planet doesn’t” and “If the climate changes, the game changes,” the organisation drew attention to the increasingly evident impacts of climate change and the need to act urgently to prevent its effects from continuing to worsen.
Protecting marine and terrestrial ecosystems such as the Maya Forest, as well as a sustainable and just energy transition—one that no longer relies on oil and says no to fracking—are the kinds of decisive changes we need in the current government’s climate policy to truly help combat and curb the impacts of climate change. With the giant balloon—placed in the central rotunda of the airport terminal—as a backdrop, and under the gaze of domestic and international travellers, Greenpeace Mexico activists positioned themselves beneath the balloon, mimicking flames that represent the extreme heat threatening both the game and the planet.
Germany

Greenpeace activists protest against Amazon cloud provider AWS’s unscrupulous business dealings with controversial companies at the AWS Summit held at the Hamburg exhibition halls. The cloud provider is promoting its business, which it conducts without keeping exclusion lists.

A sculpture of a globe controlled by servers is erected in front of the trade fair building, on which installed screens display scenes of human rights violations and environmental destruction that could be caused in a similar manner by business partners of “Amazon Cloud Services.”
Belgium

Greenpeace Belgium activists unroll a massive banner in Brussels’s historic Grand Place square, condemning the use of the celebrations of the United States’s 250th anniversary to promote Trump’s political and corporate agenda.
Germany

Simon Steill, Executive Secretary of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), visits ‘The Wayfinder’s Roadmap’ photo exhibition at Bonn SB64 Climate Change Conference. The Greenpeace Australia Pacific exhibition highlights Pacific communities navigating the greatest global challenge of our time: climate change and the end of the fossil fuel age. The team gave Mr Steill a copy of their new report launched at Bonn, ‘Where the Ocean Leads Us’.
Spain

Tens of thousands of people took part in A Illa de Arousa in a massive demonstration against the Altri/Greenfiber mega-cellulose plant project in Palas de Rei (A Ulloa, Galicia) and the reopening of the Touro-O Pino mine under the slogan “In defense of the Ulla River and the Arousa estuary. Let’s stop Altri and the Touro-O Pino mine.” Both projects would have a massive environmental impact on the Ulla River basin, which flows into the Arousa estuary—the most productive yet also the most environmentally degraded in Galicia.


Greenpeace has been a pioneer of photo activism for more than 50 years, and remains committed to bearing witness and exposing environmental injustice through the images we capture.
To see more Greenpeace photos and videos, visit our Media Library.
https://www.greenpeace.org.au/learn/greenpeace-pictures-of-the-month/
Climate Change
Stranger, my Friend

Back in 1978, my year two teacher at Kelmscott Primary School in the foothills of Perth was a woman named Lesley Choules, who was especially fond of homely aphorisms as part of her teaching approach. Mrs Choules would deliver these cheerily, or icily, depending on how we had been behaving, but not much time would pass on any given day without her reminding us that “a smile costs nothing, but gives much”, or more ominously, “idle hands make the devil’s work”. All very old school, no doubt, but delivered with care and sincerity.
I think Mrs Choules was the first person I ever heard say that a “stranger is just a friend you haven’t met yet”. A simple but profoundly lovely sentiment, which is so at odds with the contemporary encouragement by demagogues and algorithms, to treat strangers with suspicion, or as subjects for exploitation.
And I’m exceedingly fortunate to experience the phenomenon of ‘stranger as friend’ quite a bit today as an adult. It occurs on every occasion when I meet someone new and end up finding out that they support Greenpeace.
These moments are wildly unpredictable in their timing-–being told “yes, I support Greenpeace”, mid-needle, by the person giving me the vaccination particularly stands out in my memory. But what I have learned, not just from reading organisational demographic reports but from my own daily life, is that we Greenpeacers are a varied bunch of human beings united by especially wonderful common threads: a sense of personal commitment to seeing an earth capable of nurturing life in all of its magnificent diversity, and a shared conviction that together we have the power to secure this future, whatever the odds. That’s Greenpeace.
So, to pick one recent example, I was on the road with a colleague, and we stopped in at a pub to grab a counter meal at the end of a long day. It was a fairly typical country hotel…some football playing on a big screen somewhere at the back, people tucking into their parmies and chips.
We found a table, and I went up to place our orders, accompanied by a bit of a chat with the person pulling the drinks. In the course of a polite conversation about the World Cup I mentioned in passing that I had South American work colleagues. The bartender then asked where I worked, to which I responded “Greenpeace”.
And then there was the moment.
‘Greenpeace! I get the emails and sign everything! I love the oceans. It started for me when I was travelling around the world and I realised how much damage was being done. I had to do something.’
These occasions carry an enormous significance to me, and to all of us at Greenpeace. On a personal level, they activate something profound and primal: a rush of belonging and sense of kinship and gratitude. I know, as a matter of intellect, that there are millions of people who support Greenpeace all over the world. But there is nothing like the experience of being told by a stranger, “I am part of Greenpeace too”, to viscerally reinforce that powerful, wonderful reality.
It is only this community of ‘strangers who are friends’ that enables Greenpeace to exist at all. Just to think on this for a moment, Greenpeace has run massive campaigns, taking on the most powerful vested interests in the world, for more than fifty years. Yet in that whole time, we haven’t taken funding from any government or business. We exist only because of people who believe in our mission and our method and give of themselves—their time, money, name, skill, energy, trust, talent, passion and perseverance. It is a miracle of collaborative action that we make possible every day, together.
So, with this in mind, I smile at the bartender and say a version of what I always do in these circumstances:
‘Thank you, thank you. Greenpeace only exists because of you, and me, and all of us. So, deeply and sincerely, thank you.’
And it is such a privilege to have the opportunity to say those words, on behalf of an organisation that I have loved since I was a kid, and for a mission that is my vocation, for all life on earth.
I don’t know what Mrs Choules would have made of Greenpeace—a bit naughty maybe—but I remember her as someone who loved nature, and she encouraged that love in her pupils. I like to think she would have recognised our common bonds, and been delighted at their regular discovery in these idiosyncratic encounters.
To meet someone who is part of Greenpeace is to know a friend. Another spirit who has found belonging, purpose, meaning and impact in our shared ideal. The truth is, you never know who, you never know where, but if you sail with Greenpeace, you have mates. You will never face the world alone.
Whatever is here now, whatever is to come, we will see it through together. We have agency on this earth. Across our many languages and lives, we will continue to dream a universal dream of a flourishing planet, and make good on our common conviction that together we have the power to make it so.
With Love,
David
Q & A
A question I was asked this week—and quite often get asked—is, what is the relationship between Greenpeace and other well known environmental organisations like the Wilderness Society, Australian Conservation Foundation, the World Wildlife Fund, Bird Life, Australian Marine Conservation Society and others?
Greenpeace is independent, but we are also deeply collaborative, and so often work closely with our good mates at these organisations and others. For example, a number of those organisations I have mentioned above are involved in opposing Woodside’s threat to Scott Reef, and we are all conscious that we have the greatest impact when we work together.
That said, organisations have varying strengths, histories, organisational and institutional realities, so we can often play different and complimentary roles, depending on our capabilities. On a personal level, I’ve always been very grateful for collegiate, trusting and frank relationships with colleagues and friends within the environmental movement (here’s my note of appreciation for Kelly O’Shanassy, on the occasion of her leaving ACF last year, for example). In that sense too, we are stronger together, and strongest when we each play our own part well
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