China will need to install around 10,000 gigawatts (GW) of wind and solar capacity to reach carbon neutrality by 2060, according to new Chinese government-endorsed research.
This huge energy transition – with the technologies currently standing at 1,408GW – can make a “decisive contribution” to the country’s climate efforts and bring big economic rewards, the China Energy Transformation Outlook 2024 (CETO24) shows.
The report was produced by our research team at the Energy Research Institute of the Chinese Academy of Macroeconomic Research – a “national high-end thinktank” of China’s top planner the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC).
The outlook looks at two pathways to meeting China’s “dual-carbon” climate goals and its wider aims for economic and social development.
In the first pathway, a challenging geopolitical environment constrains international cooperation.
The second assumes international climate cooperation continues despite broader geopolitical tensions.
We find that, under both scenarios, China’s energy system can achieve net-zero carbon emissions before 2060, paving the way to make Chinese society as a whole carbon neutral before 2060.
However, the outlook shows that meeting these policy goals will not be possible unless China improves its energy efficiency, sustains its electrification efforts and develops a power system built around “intelligent” grids that are predominantly supplied with electricity from solar and wind.
(Carbon Brief interviewed the report’s lead authors at the COP29 climate talks in Baku last November.)
- Trends governing China’s energy transition
- Scenarios for carbon neutrality
- Pathway to achieving “dual-carbon” targets
- Innovation and market forces for energy transition
- Focusing on enabling forces
Trends governing China’s energy transition
China’s rapid economic growth over the past decades has driven a massive increase in industrial production, particularly energy-intensive industries such as steel and cement, requiring vast amounts of energy.
To meet the high demand for energy, the country has built up a coal-based energy sector.
In 2014, Chinese president Xi Jinping introduced the concept of “four revolutions and one cooperation”, which calls for a drastic change in how energy system development is thought about.
The following 13th “five-year plan” (2016-20) – an influential economic planning document – required a shift from maintaining and developing a system based on fossil fuels to creating a system that is “clean, low-carbon, safe and efficient”.
This led to the announcement of China’s “dual-carbon” targets in 2020, which positioned achieving a peak in emissions by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060 as integral to China’s economic development in the future.
As part of this, policymakers are working towards a “new type of energy system”, in which low-carbon technologies will simultaneously provide energy security and affordable energy prices, as well as addressing environmental concerns.
In the past few years, however, electricity demand has grown rapidly due to increased production of goods after the Covid-19 pandemic and the impact of heatwaves.
Furthermore, the supply of hydropower has been hampered by the lack of water because of droughts. This has led to a push for new investments in coal power, despite a massive deployment of solar and wind power plants.
The challenge today is related to this transformation’s speed – how China can vigorously accelerate renewable energy deployment to cover growing energy demand and substitute coal power.
Scenarios for carbon neutrality
CETO24 looks at two scenarios for its analysis of China’s energy transformation towards 2060. The first – the baseline carbon-neutral scenario (BCNS) – assumes geopolitics continues to constrain low-carbon cooperation.
The second – the ideal carbon-neutral scenario (ICNS) – assumes climate cooperation avoids geopolitical conflict.
Both scenarios envision that China will reach peak carbon emissions before 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality before 2060, against a backdrop of the growing urgency of global climate change and increasing complexity and volatility of the international political and economic landscape.
The BCNS assumes that addressing climate change may become a lower priority globally, but that China still meets its “dual-carbon” goals. The ICNS assumes that other countries prioritise accelerating their domestic energy transformation and cooperation on climate change, despite occasional political or economic conflicts.
The outlook models the two scenarios and analyses the transformation of end-use energy consumption in different sectors, such as industry, buildings and transportation.
The CETO model suite, used in the outlook, is illustrated in the figure below. For example, the electricity and district heating optimisation model (EDO, blue box), looks at power, heat and “e-fuel” production in great detail with an hourly resolution, in order to capture the fluctuations in variable renewable energy output at provincial level.
EDO looks at the least-cost pathway to reach the dual-carbon goals for the whole power system, including the production, storage and transport of electricity.
On the demand side, the end-use energy demand analysis model (END-USE, black box) allows for different modelling approaches in the different sectors. The model also includes the processing of fossil fuels and biomass.
The EDO and END-USE models are supported by a socioeconomic model (red box), which looks into the macroeconomic impact of the energy transformation and vice-versa.
The results from the models are used in the summary model (yellow box), which shows the primary energy consumption, the energy flows for the whole energy system and the investments and operating costs for the supply sectors, as modelled in the EDO model.
Our strategy for developing the new type of energy system, based on the models shown above, consists of:
- Focusing on efficient use of energy in the end-use sectors, with an emphasis on a shift from fossil fuel consumption to the direct use of electricity (electrification).
- Transforming the power sector to a zero-carbon emission system, mainly based on wind and solar.
- Ensuring that the grid management system – the system of transmission, distribution and storage of electricity – is able to deal with the fluctuations in production and demand. This includes more focus on flexible demand, as well as digital, intelligent control systems to manage system integration, cost-efficient dispatch of supply and demand, as well as energy security in the short- and long-term.
The approach of the model is to promote system-wide optimisation for the two scenarios. This allows for the analysis of the complex interaction between demand, supply, grids and storage, seeking to optimise the whole system, instead of optimising subsystems on their own.
The approach is based on a least-cost modelling of the power system, along with the production and distribution of low-carbon fuels, such as green methanol, green hydrogen, e-fuels and so on.
The demand-side modelling allows for flexible methodologies for the different end-use sectors, with “soft links” to the power and low-carbon fuel optimisation model.
The models are constrained to ensure that China’s dual-carbon goals are met. In other words, the energy system’s carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions peak before 2030 and reach net-zero before 2060.
Other assumptions built into the models include a moderate economic growth rate and a shift in China’s economic structure to focus more on high-quality products and services instead of heavy industry, which has much higher energy consumption per unit of economic output.
Pathway to achieving ‘dual-carbon’ targets
The analyses for both scenarios in CETO24 confirm that China’s energy system can achieve net-zero carbon emissions before 2060, paving the way to make Chinese society as a whole carbon neutral before 2060.
Shown in the figures below, in both scenarios, primary energy consumption peaks before 2035 and declines thereafter, despite the assumption that China’s economy will grow between 3.3 to 3.6 times its 2020 level in the period until 2060.
Both scenarios underscore the importance of energy conservation and efficiency as prerequisites for energy transition.
This is because without effective energy conservation, China’s energy transition would demand significantly greater deployment of clean energy sources, making it difficult to achieve the necessary pace to hit the dual-carbon targets.
Sustained electrification drives carbon neutrality
In order to reach carbon neutrality, CETO24 suggests that the use of fossil fuels in the end-use sectors should be substituted by clean electricity as much as possible.
Furthermore, electricity should also be used to produce synthetic fuels or heat supply to satisfy end-use demands for energy.
In 2023, China’s electrification rate was around 28%. The report’s figures, illustrated below, show that electricity (light blue) accounts for as much as 79%-84% of the total end-use energy demand in 2060.
In both scenarios, the transportation sector is expected to experience the fastest growth in electrification, while the building sector achieves the highest overall electrification rate.
Some fossil-fuel-based fuels would still be needed to support certain industries, such as freight transport and aviation, by 2060.
Nevertheless, both scenarios indicate that China’s end-use energy demand would peak before 2035, followed by a gradual decline, with the 2060 value being roughly 30% lower than the peak.
(It is important to note that end-use energy demand is not the same as useful energy services, such as warmer buildings or the movement of vehicles. The replacement of fossil fuels by electricity results in a more efficient use of energy in the end-use sectors, since the losses of energy from burning fossil fuels are removed. Hence, it is possible to reduce final energy consumption even as demand for energy services rises.)
The short-term growth in the end-use energy demand is due to the rapid increase in electricity demand.
As shown in the graphs below, the share of electricity demand from traditional end-use sectors (blue) – mainly from industry, buildings and transport – would decrease from 89% in 2022 to 68%-72% by 2060.
In contrast, an increasing share of electricity is expected to be used for new types of demand such as for hydrogen production (light green), electric district heating (pink) and synthetic fuel production (dark blue).
Building a power system centred on wind and solar
CETO24 finds that decarbonising the energy supply is a lynchpin of energy transformation – and replacing fossil fuel power with non-fossil sources is the top priority.
In 2023, non-fossil sources comprised 53.9% of China’s power capacity. In the report’s scenarios, as shown in the figures below, the total installed power generation capacity could reach between 10,530GW and 11,820GW by 2060 – about four times the 2023 level.
The installed capacity of renewable energy sources – including solar (yellow) and wind (blue) – would account for about 96% of the total in 2060.
The installed capacity of nuclear power (dark pink) and pumped storage power (in hydro, dark blue) could reach 180GW and 380GW, respectively. Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) (dark green) would have an installed capacity of more than 130GW.
In addition to dominating installed capacity, wind and solar could account for as much as 94% of China’s electricity generation by 2060, as shown in the figure below.
Energy transformation in China adheres to the principle of “construction new before destruct old” (先立后破). (The principle is also translated as “build before breaking”. See Carbon Brief’s articles from 2021 and 2022 for background.)
As new low-carbon energy capacity grows and power system control capabilities gradually improve, coal power will gradually shift to a regulating and backup power source, with older and less efficient capacity being decommissioned as it reaches the end of its life.
Building an intelligent power grid
The construction of a new power system is a core component of China’s energy transformation.
CETO24 suggests that a coordinated nationwide approach would be the most efficient way to facilitate this. It would integrate all resources – generation, grid, demand, storage and hydrogen – to create a power grid that enables large-scale interconnection as well as lower-level balancing.
This coordinated nationwide approach would involve three key elements.
First, an optimised electricity grid layout, with the completion of the national network of key transmission lines by 2035, enabling west-to-east and north-to-south power transmission, with provinces able to send power to each other. By using digital and intelligent technologies, the grid would be able to adapt flexibly to changes in power supply and demand.
By 2060 in both of CETO24’s scenarios, the total scale of electricity exports from the north-west, north-east and north China regions would increase by 140% to 150% compared to 2022 levels.
Second, this approach would see continuous improvements in the construction of local electricity distribution grids, allowing them to adapt to large-scale inputs of distributed “new energy” sources such as rooftop solar.
As part of this element, China would need to promote the transformation of distribution grids from a unidirectional system into a two-way interactive system. It would also need to focus on providing and promoting local consumption of renewable energy sources for industrial, agricultural, commercial and residential use.
The creation of numerous zero-carbon distribution grid hubs would be needed to provide strong support for the development of more than 5,000 GW of distributed wind and solar energy, which is a feature of CETO24’s modelled pathways.
Third, the multiple energy networks would need to be combined, fully integrating power, heat and transportation systems. This would create a new-type energy network where electricity and hydrogen, in particular, serve as key hubs.
Under both scenarios, the scale of green hydrogen production and use could reach 340-420m tonnes of coal equivalent (Mtce) by 2060. Hydrogen and e-fuel production through electrolysis would become an important means to support grid load balancing – using excess supply to run electrolysers – and to facilitate seasonal grid balancing, with stored hydrogen being used to generate power when needed.
Battery energy storage capacity could reach 240-280GW and the number of electric vehicles could reach 480-540m, with “vehicle-to-grid” interaction capacity reaching 810-900GW, providing real-time responsiveness to the power system.
Innovation and market forces for energy transition
The development of “new productive forces” is a distinctive feature of China’s energy transformation.
Low-carbon, zero-carbon and negative-carbon technologies, equipment and industries, such as electric arc furnaces for steel production, hydrogen-based steelmaking furnaces, high-efficiency heat-pump heating systems, among others, offer broad market potential and present significant investment opportunities.
From the perspective of energy equipment demand, the scenarios show that by 2060 China’s installed wind and solar power capacity would reach approximately 10,000GW.
In the scenarios, the annual investment demand for wind and solar power equipment in China would grow from approximately two trillion yuan ($270bn) per year in 2023 to around six trillion yuan ($820bn) per year by 2060, with cumulative investment needs over the next 30 years exceeding 160tn yuan ($22tn).
The energy transformation will also require China to update or retrofit energy-using equipment across various sectors over the next 30 years, including industry, buildings and transportation.
While playing a smaller part than electrification and efficiency, CETO24’s modelling also points to an essential role for technologies such as carbon capture and storage (CCS) and industrial CO2 recycling, if China is to reach carbon neutrality.
In order for these technologies to be deployed at scale on the timelines needed, more and greater research and planning would need to begin now.
If it is to contribute to the dual-carbon goals over the next 30 years, China’s energy system will need to enter an accelerated phase of equipment upgrades and retrofits, with the scale of demand for such improvements continuing to grow, providing a sustained driving force for economic growth.
Strengthening international cooperation on energy transformation would also help China and other countries reduce the manufacturing, service and usage costs of new energy transformation technologies, enabling both China and the world to achieve carbon neutrality sooner and at lower cost.
Last but not least, a complete legal system for energy is likely to be a key requirement for a successful energy transition. China’s new energy law came into force in the beginning of 2025. More reforms in the legal system, carbon pricing, as well as data management would add significant support to energy transition.
Focusing on enabling forces
In summary, CETO24 demonstrates that there are technically feasible solutions for China’s energy transformation. However, it is still a long-term and challenging societal project.
China would need to reach peak carbon emissions by the end of this decade and then cut them to net-zero within 30 years, far more quickly than the trajectories envisaged by developed economies.
In order to be successful, policymakers will need to face the challenges head-on, find solutions and seek clarity amid uncertainty, to ensure that China’s energy transformation stays on track and progresses steadily.
Our research suggests their solutions could aim to address five areas: electrify energy consumption and improve energy efficiency; decarbonise energy supply; enhance interaction between energy supply and demand; industrialise energy technologies; and modernise energy governance.
At the same time, strengthening international cooperation on energy transformation and exploring pathways together with the global community would allow China to both ensure the smooth progression of its own energy transformation and contribute significantly to the global effort.
The post Guest post: China will need 10,000GW of wind and solar by 2060 appeared first on Carbon Brief.
Guest post: China will need 10,000GW of wind and solar by 2060
Antarctic sea ice has recorded its third-smallest winter peak extent since satellite records began 48 years ago, new data reveals.
Provisional data from the US National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) shows that Antarctic sea ice hit its annual winter peak on 14 September, with an extent of 17.59m square kilometres (km2).
The organisation notes that the data is still preliminary, adding that “large fluctuations in extent are typical of Antarctic sea ice near the seasonal maximum”.
One expert tells Carbon Brief that it is “concerning to see these low values persisting”, but says that scientists need more time to determine whether this represents a “structural shift” in Antarctic sea ice extent.
Meanwhile, at the Earth’s other pole, Arctic sea ice reached its annual minimum on 12 September, ranking as the joint-10th lowest in the satellite record.
The NSIDC notes that the last 20 years have seen the lowest 20 Arctic sea ice extents in the satellite record.
Antarctic peak
Dr Lettie Roach, a polar climate scientist at the Alfred Wegener Institute in Germany, tells Carbon Brief that this year’s Antarctic sea ice maximum was “well below average for the season”. She warns that, “after several decades of stable or increasing winter Antarctic sea ice conditions, it is concerning to see these low values persisting”.
She adds:
“Compared with the Arctic, it’s less clear how recent changes in Antarctic sea ice are attributable to human-caused warming vs natural variability. We need more years of observations to better understand whether this is truly a structural shift.”
Dr Clare Eayrs, a postdoctoral researcher at the Korea Polar Research Institute (KOPRI), tells Carbon Brief that, since recording a “near-average February minimum” extent, Antarctic sea ice has “returned to unusually low winter coverage”.
She notes that Antarctic sea ice extent in July and August this year were the fifth and fourth lowest on record, respectively, adding that “all five of the lowest July extents have occurred since 2022 and all four of the lowest August extents since 2023”.
The chart below shows Antarctic sea ice extent in 2025 (dark blue) and 2026 (red) so far. For comparison, the chart shows decadal averages (dotted lines) as well as 2023 (mid blue), the year of the smallest winter sea-ice maximum on record.
Eayrs tells Carbon Brief that the regional pattern of Antarctic sea ice cover “changed substantially during the growth season”.
For example, she says that “in April, the Bellingshausen Sea remained almost entirely ice-free, while the neighbouring Amundsen Sea had more ice than usual”.
However, by late August, changes in atmospheric pressure and wind meant that “the Bellingshausen deficit had largely recovered, while ice was unusually scarce in the Amundsen Sea and across much of East Antarctica”.
Arctic minimum
Meanwhile, the Arctic recorded its minimum summer sea ice extent on 12 September. At 4.60m km2, this year ties with 2025, 2010 and 2008 as the 10th-lowest sea ice extent on record.
The chart below shows Arctic sea ice extent in 2025 (dark blue) and 2026 (red) so far. For comparison, the chart shows decadal averages (dotted lines) as well as 2012 (mid blue), the year of the smallest summer sea-ice minimum on record.
Roach tells Carbon Brief that although this minimum is not “record setting”, it is still “lower than any sea ice minimum before 2007”. She adds:
“Human-caused climate change has reduced Arctic sea ice cover and thickness, so the region is fundamentally different compared to a few decades ago.”
Scientists have been tracking Arctic sea ice thickness using a reanalysis produced called the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) since 1979.
In March 2026, the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) terminated a global dataset of air pressure that scientists relied upon to produce PIOMAS, forcing both datasets to stop publishing updates.
The PIOMAS website says it will take “considerable effort and time” to find alternative data to use in their reanalysis. It adds that “we don’t yet have a good sense if that’s possible with available funds and if so, when we will be able to resume production of a new PIOMAS timeseries”.
Roach also notes that August saw record-breaking heat sweep across much of the world, explaining that high temperatures “extended into Arctic coastal regions, close to regions with substantial sea ice loss – particularly the Barents-Kara and East Siberian seas”.
Dr Zack Labe, a scientist at Climate Central, tells Carbon Brief that the absence of a new record does not mean that ice cover is becoming more “resilient”. He says:
“Local weather patterns across the Arctic play a really important role in year-to-year sea-ice extent, even as the long-term trend is clearly downward.”
Labe tells Carbon Brief that weather in the Arctic this summer was “influenced mainly by lower pressure toward the central Arctic, which brought cloudier and cooler conditions that limited surface melt and delayed the start of the melt season”.
He explains that this “was most obvious across parts of the Beaufort and Chukchi seas, where the melt season didn’t really kick off until after early July, which was more than two weeks later than normal”.
In contrast, he says, the Atlantic side of the Arctic “had a much more extreme summer”, with sea ice in the Barents Sea recording its “earliest melt-out on record”.
This was partly due to “unusually warm air and ocean temperatures”, Labe says. He notes, for example, that parts of western Siberia saw unusually persistent temperatures more than 5C above the 1981-2010 average for much of the summer, which extended out over the Kara Sea and contributed to substantial ice melt in this area”.
Labe tells Carbon Brief that, going forward, scientists need “more data and observations of other sea-ice metrics, like ice thickness, which may give us better insight into the overall condition of the ice pack, especially during years like 2026 when it is very fragmented”.
(In March 2026, Arctic sea ice reached its peak extent for this winter, clocking in as the joint-smallest in a satellite record going back almost half a century.)
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The post ‘Concerning’ low sea ice persists as Antarctic hits third-lowest winter peak appeared first on Carbon Brief.
‘Concerning’ low sea ice persists as Antarctic hits third-lowest winter peak
Participants at COP31 in Antalya will have a “duty” not to interfere in Türkiye’s internal affairs under the country’s hosting deal with the UN, reviving a clause dropped for last year’s climate summit in Brazil that human rights groups warn could put activists at risk.
Türkiye has faced growing criticism from human rights groups over the jailing of opposition figures, journalists and activists and imposed a blanket protest ban around July’s summit of the NATO military alliance in Ankara.
The contested provision is included in the binding agreement between the UN climate secretariat and the Turkish government that sets out responsibilities over logistical arrangements and details participants’ rights and obligations.
The document, signed in June but only made public on Wednesday, gives accredited COP31 attendees immunity from legal action over what they say, write or do in connection with the conference. Climate Home News understands that this safeguard can be applied to what takes place both inside and, in certain circumstances, outside of the UN-controlled COP “Blue Zone”. For the first time, this protection explicitly continues after the summit ends.
But participants enjoying these “privileges and immunities” also have a duty to respect Türkiye’s laws and regulations and not to interfere in its internal affairs, the agreement states. Rights groups fear its wide-ranging formulation could be used to discourage criticism of the host government.
Climate Home News understands that whether an action is covered by the immunity or infringes on the host’s internal affairs would be evaluated on a case-by-case basis, with close coordination between the country’s authorities and the UN climate change body.
A separate provision states that immunity shall be waived where the UN believes it would “impede the course of justice”.
‘Chilling effect’
Those same provisions featured in the host country agreements for COP28 in the United Arab Emirates and COP29 in Azerbaijan, both regarded as authoritarian regimes, before being dropped for COP30 in Brazil.
Ann Harrison, climate justice policy advisor at Amnesty International, said it is “extremely disappointing” that the COP31 agreement re-introduced clauses that could “hinder the ability of human rights defenders and civil society organisations to conduct their work safely”.
COP31 electrification pledge leaves out clean power commitment
She added the provisions could have a “wider chilling effect” on rights to freedom of expression and peaceful assembly, given concerns over the human rights situation in Türkiye, including laws that “have shrunk civic space” and their “abusive” implementation by authorities.
The UN climate change body declined to comment.
Rights groups have documented blanket protest bans, unlawful use of force by the police and prosecutions of journalists, human rights defenders and lawyers across Türkiye in the last year.
Arrests and protest bans
Last July, environmental activist Esra Işık was sentenced to more than two years for “resisting” a public official over what Amnesty International described as a peaceful protest against an urgent expropriation order linked to the expansion of coal mining in south-western Türkiye. She is appealing the conviction.
Ahead of a summit of the NATO alliance in the capital Ankara in July, authorities put in place a 13-day blanket ban on demonstrations, citing “national security”, and arrested over 200 people. Human Rights Watch said the crackdown showed Türkiye’s “ruthless intolerance of freedom of speech and assembly”.
Earlier this month, Turkish police detained dozens of people as part of what rights groups described as the government’s widening crackdown on LGBTQ+ activists and venues.
Questioned by media as to how he would guarantee the right to protest at COP31, Kurum said earlier in September that his team would “try to meet” any request they receive from civil society and give them “a free space to express themselves”.
“Don’t worry, thinking you will not be able to voice your opinions or really share your thoughts,” he said in an attempt to reassure campaigners, adding that he had put former deputy environment minister Mehmet Birpinar in charge of liaising with civil society.
Civic space needed
Camilla Pollera, human rights and climate change campaigner at the Center for International Environmental Law (CIEL), said meaningful participation at COP31 is fundamental to the legitimacy of climate action.
“At a climate summit, civil society participation necessarily includes being present, speaking out, scrutinising governments’ decisions and climate policies, and advocating for communities most vulnerable to climate change,” she added.
At last year’s COP30 summit, thousands of Indigenous people and climate activists peacefully marched through the Amazonian city of Belém in the first major demonstration outside the UN venue in four years. Smaller-scale demonstrations were largely confined to the “Blue Zone” at COP27 in Egypt, COP28 in the UAE and COP29 in Azerbaijan.
In two other separate incidents in Belém, members of the Munduruku tribe blocked access to the conference centre for hours, demanding an end to development projects in their ancestral land, and protesters stormed through the venue clashing with UN security officials.
The COP31 hosting agreement keeps some of the safeguards previously hailed by civil society groups. The government and the UN secretariat commit to upholding “the fundamental human rights” of all participants in the agreement’s preamble.
Under the deal, Türkiye also needs to ensure that security personnel follow “the highest ethical and professional standards and are expected to behave with integrity and respect”.
The post COP31 attendees told not to interfere in Türkiye’s “internal affairs” appeared first on Climate Home News.
COP31 attendees told not to interfere in Türkiye’s “internal affairs”
As rising seas submerge growing swathes of land, countries that lose territory should still keep their national boundaries, sovereign rights and UN membership, according to a political declaration adopted at the UN General Assembly in New York on Thursday.
The declaration, which was championed by climate-vulnerable small island states, affirms “the presumption in favour of continued statehood” in the face of sea level rise fuelled by climate change, and urges countries to work together to assist communities affected by encroaching oceans.
Speaking at a high-level UN meeting to address the existential threats posed by sea level rise, Cabo Verde’s Prime Minister Francisco Carvalho, one of the initiative’s co-facilitators along with Australia, said the adoption of the text by consensus sends “a message of hope”.
“This declaration has a very special meaning. For us, sea level rise is neither a distant threat nor a theoretical concern,” he said, adding that rising seas put at risk key infrastructure, water resources and economic growth in small island states.
In the Pacific, sea levels have risen at twice the global rate, dramatically increasing coastal flooding events from two to 20 a year in the Republic of the Marshall Islands, and from zero to 102 events per year in American Samoa, according to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).
Surangel Whipps Jr., president of the Pacific island of Palau, said the summit in New York represents a “moment of international solidarity”, and highlighted that small island states will remain permanent members of the UN.
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Declaration recognises statehood
An advisory opinion by the world’s top maritime court, the International Tribunal on the Law of the Sea (ITLOS), first upheld in 2024 that countries do not have to shrink their maritime borders even if they lose land territory due to sea level rise. This was reiterated by the International Court of Justice in last year’s landmark ruling on the climate obligations of states.
The new declaration endorsed by all governments at the UN General Assembly stresses that sea level rise “is not a distant scenario but a real and lived experience for many”, and notes that international law must be implemented in global responses to rising seas.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres said the “milestone must now be translated into action”, adding that the declaration should encourage an “ongoing dialogue” at the “highest possible level” leading to practical outcomes. Pacific islands have proposed an international treaty on sea level rise that would provide more legal certainty.
“Those on the frontlines must be front and centre on every decision. We cannot allow countries and cultures to vanish beneath the waves,” he said. “The SOS has gone out. The world must answer.”
At regional summit, Pacific islands ask for COP31 support for clean energy and finance
Goodwin Friday, prime minister of St. Vincent and the Grenadines, said measures to protect vulnerable states will require adequate finance. “Investing in resilience now is more cost-effective than paying the far greater price for loss and damage later,” he added.
Championed by Australia’s COP31 co-presidency, Pacific islands have sought to put adaptation to sea level rise and ocean conservation at the top of the political agenda by inviting world leaders to attend the pre-COP31 summit co-hosted by Fiji and Tuvalu in October.
Tuvalu will also host the second global fossil fuel phase-out summit in April 2027, after around 60 governments met this year in Santa Marta, Colombia, to discuss ending their dependence on coal, oil and gas.
“Our coastlines, our reefs and our communities are living with the consequences of fossil fuel dependence every day, and our people have earned the right to help shape the way forward,” Lynda Tabuya, Fiji’s climate minister, said in a statement announcing details of the conference.
Ocean monitoring gets a boost in New York
Amid record-breaking marine heat and seas rising at unprecedented speed, governments in New York announced new commitments to protect the world’s ocean, as efforts to bolster marine ecosystems and coastal communities rise up the political agenda.
On Wednesday, the EU and Canada announced more funding for a new Europe-led ocean monitoring system called OceanEye, launched in the aftermath of a failed attempt by the Trump administration to dismantle the largest existing network of deep-sea observatories.
During an event at UN headquarters in New York, EU President Ursula von der Leyen and Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney announced around $163 million in new funding for the initiative, with the EU pledging €92 million ($105m) on top of existing seed funding and Canada pledging C$82 million (US$58m) over five years.
According to an EU statement, while OceanEye will collaborate with the Global Ocean Observing System, that network “remains vulnerable to financial shortfalls and geopolitical disruptions”. A group of 30 countries from Europe, Africa and the Americas joined an international initiative in support of OceanEye, including large coastal nations like Brazil, Namibia and Mexico.
Von der Leyen said OceanEye “can make us the leading ocean data provider in a matter of years”, including by launching new satellites and installing new observatories in the deep ocean. “From outer space to the deepest ocean, our funding helps us keep watch beneath the waves,” she added.
Carney said the initiative would help protect Canada’s Arctic region with real-time monitoring operating year-round. “We can’t protect what we can’t see,” he said, also highlighting that Canada had expanded conservation of its ocean territory from 1% a decade ago to 15% now.
In New York, a group of 19 countries said they are either developing or implementing plans to sustainably manage all of their ocean territory, with 12 new nations joining the initiative. In a joint communiqué, they called on more countries to sign up ahead of COP31.
Warnings of El Niño-fuelled extreme heat
Scientists and world leaders have raised the alarm over this year’s record-breaking marine temperatures, which have persisted above historical peaks for more than 100 days as the naturally occurring El Niño phenomenon intensifies in the Pacific.
Extreme ocean heat could become a threat to coastal ecosystems and communities, experts fear. Water temperatures 1.5C above normal levels have also rapidly fuelled a strong hurricane in the Pacific in recent days.
Despite scientific calls for additional ocean conservation efforts, a report launched this week in New York warned that efforts to protect ocean ecosystems are lagging behind, with only 10% of the global ocean covered by conservation areas and just 3.5% designated as “effectively protected”.
The post Threatened by rising seas, small islands secure right to keep their statehood appeared first on Climate Home News.
Threatened by rising seas, small islands secure right to keep their statehood
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