CCL’s Info Session: Find where you fit in
By Nabila Wilson
Elli Sparks vividly remembers attending her first CCL Informational Session back in 2010.
Sitting in her bedroom, Elli felt the sense of isolation melting away as she heard CCL Executive Director Mark Reynolds leading the call.
CCL Senior Director of Programs Elli Sparks
“I remember feeling I finally had a place where I could share my fears about climate change and could join a group of people spread across the country working on climate change solutions together,” recalls Elli, who now presents the call as CCL’s Senior Director of Programs. “That’s part of why I invite people to introduce themselves at the beginning of the call. I am hoping they, too, feel a sense of connection with each other and with the presenters.”
The CCL lowdown
The Informational Session is Citizens’ Climate Lobby 101 — it outlines what we care about, what policies we support, and how new people can get involved.
Nabila Wilson is one of the interns currently helping run the Info Session.
Every Wednesday evening at 5 p.m. PT / 8 p.m. ET, a rotation of CCL staff and interns present on the call, unpacking CCL’s approach to lobbying, outreach events, and how CCLers connect over shared concerns, build consensus, and work with elected officials from every party toward climate solutions. There is also a Q&A session at the end where anyone who wants to can ask a question.
The 55-minute call is held on Zoom with videos and opportunities for sharing links and questions. We’ve come a long way from the early years of CCL when the call was held on a phone conference line!
Elli says her initial experience of the Informational Session had such an impact on her as a volunteer that she would often return to the session to listen and gain inspiration from the participants.
“I probably listened seven or eight times over the course of a year,” she says. “When I was hired by CCL, It was such a treat to learn that I would lead the call.”
After several years leading the conference call, Elli moved the training to Zoom, where she continued to fine-tune the format, incorporating volunteer feedback and adding new presenters.
Truly bipartisan
CCL Conservative Outreach Director Drew Eyerly
One such presenter is CCL’s Conservative Outreach Director Drew Eyerly, who says having a conservative co-lead the call shows that CCL is truly nonpartisan.
“The Informational Session is one of the best examples of CCL as a whole,” he adds.
Another unique aspect of the call is how interactive it is. Throughout the session, attendees are asked to respond in the chat about what values or policies resonate with them and how they want to get involved as volunteers.
Intern Kieran Rudar
“My favorite part of the call is how participants and presenters have opportunities to connect over common interests, such as sports, hiking, or where they grew up,” says Kieran Rudar, a chapter development intern and Info Session presenter. “It shows how protecting the earth from climate change can bring people together.”
What attendees say
Want to join an upcoming session and learn more about CCL? Folks like you are on the call every week.
“I contacted the Citizens’ Climate Lobby a few weeks ago about new membership, and they’ve been responsive, helpful, and very positive,” said Eleanor Morse, a new volunteer in Oregon. “As an individual very concerned about what humans have done to this beautiful Earth, I find it helpful and reassuring to be connected to a nationwide group of people who share my concerns and are organized and effective in bringing about necessary change.”
Mark Tittle, another recent Info Session attendee, praised the session’s “clear guidance” and “interactive nature,” helping him understand how he fits in at CCL.
“One thing that stood out to me about CCL was how welcoming and open they were when I first joined,” said Dave Kam, a Utah CCLer. “An experienced member took new members aside and explained what CCL was about, their values, the opportunities to volunteer, and most importantly, that every member was encouraged to contribute what they personally felt comfortable with.”
That’s the kind of warm welcome you’ll receive on CCL’s Informational Session. See you there!
Sign up for an upcoming Informational Session or watch a recording here.
The post CCL’s Info Session: Find where you fit in appeared first on Citizens' Climate Lobby.
Greenhouse Gases
After Congress cuts clean energy measures, climate advocates are undeterred in D.C.
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
After Congress cuts clean energy measures, climate advocates are undeterred in D.C.
July 16, 2025 – Next week, Citizens’ Climate Lobby will hold its 16th annual Summer Conference and Lobby Day in Washington, D.C.
CCL will welcome more than 800 registrants from around the country, who will attend conference activities beginning Sunday evening, July 20, through Monday, July 21.
Keynote speaker Amanda Ripley — author of High Conflict and co-founder of the nonprofit Good Conflict — will offer a timely and essential message as we navigate today’s fractured political landscape. See the full conference program here.
Then on Tuesday, July 22, conference attendees will head to Capitol Hill for hundreds of climate-focused meetings with members of Congress. Every meeting will focus on asking lawmakers — Republicans and Democrats like — to support America’s clean energy transition.
Despite the Republicans’ budget reconciliation bill passing into law with major cuts to clean energy measures, the process did reveal growing support among Republican lawmakers for those very measures.
“We had a lot of different letters coming out from Republicans on clean energy provisions, saying how important they are to their district,” Jennifer Tyler, CCL Vice President of Government Affairs, reminded CCL volunteers during the organization’s July meeting.
“Even though their vote and the bill wasn’t what we were looking for, it’s clear that we are generating support in Congress — it’s there. They’re willing to step out publicly and make those proclamations. We’re in this for the long haul, and we’re going in the right direction.”
Our grassroots volunteers will build on this support, emphasizing to Congress that clean energy can strengthen our domestic energy independence, enhance grid reliability, and reduce emissions—all while lowering costs, creating jobs, and spurring private-sector investment.
Public opinion is on our side. Sixty-three percent of Americans polled in December 2024 by the Yale Program on Climate Change Communication stated that developing clean energy sources should be a high or very high priority for the President and Congress.
In certain offices, lobby meetings will also include building support for healthy forest policy, such as the bipartisan Fix Our Forests Act, and discussing carbon border adjustment mechanism policy.
Follow along with this year’s event on CCL’s social media profiles on Instagram, Bluesky, X, or Facebook.
CONTACT: Flannery Winchester, CCL Vice President of Communications, 615-337-3642, flannery@citizensclimate.org
###
Citizens’ Climate Lobby is a nonprofit, nonpartisan, grassroots advocacy organization focused on national policies to address climate change. Learn more at citizensclimatelobby.org.
The post After Congress cuts clean energy measures, climate advocates are undeterred in D.C. appeared first on Citizens' Climate Lobby.
After Congress cuts clean energy measures, climate advocates are undeterred in D.C.
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
Ricky Bradley steps in as interim Executive Director for Citizens’ Climate
July 16, 2025 – Today, Citizens’ Climate Vice President of Field Operations Ricky Bradley assumes the role of interim Executive Director, after several weeks of a collaborative transition period with outgoing Executive Director Rachel Kerestes and Citizens’ Climate’s governing boards.
“Rachel’s leadership helped lay a strong foundation for the future, and I’m deeply grateful for her contributions,” Bradley said. “I’m committed to building on the groundwork she’s laid and on Citizens’ Climate’s proud history of grassroots advocacy.”
Ricky Bradley
Bradley brings nearly a decade of experience working as part of Citizens’ Climate’s staff, most recently as Vice President of Field Operations. In addition to his staff roles, he has also served as a volunteer Group Leader and volunteer Regional Coordinator, all of which ground him in Citizens’ Climate’s grassroots model.
“I’m excited about where Ricky’s leadership can take us from here,” said Citizens’ Climate Lobby board chair Bill Blancato said in a recent meeting with volunteers. “He’s the perfect person to take over from Rachel and carry our mission forward.”
Prior to joining Citizens’ Climate, Bradley led strategic planning and implementation efforts at HSBC, helping a large team adopt new approaches and deliver on big organizational goals.
“The political landscape is shifting, and Citizens’ Climate is stepping up — not by pressing harder in the same places, but by adapting our approach, concentrating our influence where it counts, protecting the progress we’ve made, and pursuing politically viable, durable climate solutions,” Bradley said.
Bradley joins the rest of Citizens’ Climate staff and more than 800 grassroots volunteers in Washington, D.C., next week for the organization’s annual Summer Conference and Lobby Day.
CONTACT: Flannery Winchester, CCL Vice President of Communications, 615-337-3642, flannery@citizensclimate.org
###
Citizens’ Climate Lobby is a nonprofit, nonpartisan, grassroots advocacy organization focused on national policies to address climate change. Learn more at citizensclimatelobby.org.
The post Ricky Bradley steps in as interim Executive Director for Citizens’ Climate appeared first on Citizens' Climate Lobby.
Ricky Bradley steps in as interim Executive Director for Citizens’ Climate
火山喷发对科学家及其气候模型构成了根本性挑战。
众所周知，剧烈的火山喷发会导致地表气温突然下降，多次喷发则会在几十年乃至几个世纪的时间尺度上影响气候变率。
当火山喷发将二氧化硫注入平流层时，会形成气溶胶，从而阻挡阳光到达地球表面。
与人类对气候变化的影响不同，后者发生缓慢且可以在各种社会经济情景下被纳入气候模型进行考量。火山喷发具有突发性，这给气候预测带来了挑战。
目前科学家尚无法预测火山喷发的发生时间、地点以及二氧化硫的排放量。
那么，在进行未来气候预测时，如何考虑火山喷发对气候的影响呢？
在我们最近发表于《通讯-地球与环境》（Communications Earth & Environment）的研究中，我们表明火山喷发对全球气温预测的不确定性产生了重大影响。
我们的研究结果发现，如果将偶发的火山喷发纳入气候预测，突破《巴黎协定》所设定的1.5C升温上限的时间会略有延迟，但与此同时，未来几十年也将出现更多快速升温和降温的时期。
气候预测中的火山强迫
气候科学家将火山喷发对气候的影响——主要是通过释放出二氧化硫气体进入大气——称为“火山强迫”（volcanic forcing）。
当前的气候模型在进行未来预测时采用一个恒定的火山强迫值，该值是根据1850年至今的历史平均强迫值计算得出的。
国际耦合模式比较计划（CMIP）也是如此，这项全球模型工作为政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）发布的重要评估报告提供基础数据。
然而，这种方法存在显著局限。
首先，历史平均强迫值无法表示火山爆发的偶发性。
大规模火山喷发呈零星分布——有时好多事件集中发生在某几个十年内，有时两个事件之间则可能相隔上百年。
此外，与数千年尺度的记录相比，从1850年至今的参考时期中，发生过的大规模喷发事件 ——指排放超过3太克（Tg）二氧化硫的喷发事件——相对较少。
最后，早期国际耦合模式比较计划气候模型中所使用的火山强迫重建数据并未包含排放量少于3太克二氧化硫的中小规模喷发。
这是因为这些喷发在1980年卫星时代开始之前大多未被探测到。然而，这些体量较小但发生频率更高的喷发事件，在长期火山强迫中贡献了30%至50%。
采取新方法
传统上，气候科学家认为气候预测中主要存在三种不确定性来源：内部变率、模型不确定性和情景不确定性。
其中，“内部”变率是指气候系统内部自然产生的波动，如厄尔尼诺现象；模型不确定性是指不同气候模型之间结果的差异；情景不确定性则涉及未来几十年全球可能的发展路径。
我们的研究结果表明，火山喷发应被明确视为气候预测中第四个重要的不确定性来源。
为了探究在考虑火山强迫不确定性的情况下，气候预测会发生怎样的变化，我们的研究采用了一种概率方法，这一方法建立在Bethke等人于2017年提出的研究基础之上。
为此，我们构建了“随机强迫情景”，其本质是1000种延续至本世纪末的火山活动可能时间线预测。
这些情景基于冰芯中记录的过去1.15万年火山活动历史，以及卫星观测和地质证据。每个情景都呈现了不同的喷发强度、地点、时间和频率的组合。
（在数学中，“随机”系统是指结果包含随机性或不确定性的系统，因此不可预测；这与“确定性”系统相对，后者的结果可以通过初始条件和一套规则或方程完全预测。）
随后，我们利用2015至2100年期间的随机火上强迫和历史平均火山强迫模拟气候预测，研究共享社会经济路径（SSPs）中三种不同排放情景下的升温变化：低排放情景（SSP1-1.9）、与现行气候政策相符的中等排放情景（SSP2-4.5）、非常高排放情景（SSP5-8.5）。
在这一步中，我们使用了一种称为FaIR的简化气候模型，也称“模拟器”。
通过模拟1000种不同的火山未来情况，我们发现在21世纪未来时期火山喷发所引起的气候不确定性，可能超过同期气候系统本身的内部变率。
我们还发现，到2030年代，火山喷发可能占全球气温预测总不确定性的三分之一以上。
下图中能看到这些结果。图中展示了不同来源对总不确定性的影响。火山为橙色、内部变率为深蓝色、气候模型响应为黄色，未来人类排放情景为绿色。
对1.5C临界值的意义
我们的模拟结果表明，在气候预测中纳入可能的火山活动时间线后，短期内突破《巴黎协定》设定的1.5C升温上限的概率略有下降。
根据不同的排放情景，相较于使用恒定火山强迫的预测，模拟发现超过1.5C升温上限的概率下降了4%至10%。
尽管这一结果听起来似乎令人鼓舞，但未来的火山活动并不能在长期缓和由人类引起的全球变暖。
1815年坦博拉火山的喷发事件就是一个强有力的例证。这次喷发使全球气温平均下降了约0.8C，带来了“无夏之年”，导致欧洲、北美和中国大范围的作物歉收和饥荒。
火山喷发带来的降温效应是短暂的，通常只持续几年，其并不会改变由人类排放所导致的长期变暖趋势。
我们的研究发现，即使考虑多种可能的未来火山活动，在除了最低排放路径以外的所有情景中，全球变暖仍将在几十年内超过1.5C。
即便21世纪火山活动频繁，其对全球变暖的抵消作用也仅占很小一部分——这意味着减排对于实现长期气候目标仍然至关重要。
下方图表展示了在三种排放情景下，使用随机火山强迫（实线）与恒定火山强迫（虚线）时超过1.5C的概率（上图），以及两种强迫方式之间的概率差异（下图）。
十年尺度的气温变率
我们的研究提供的另一个重要发现是：一旦将火山强迫的变率纳入考虑，将更有可能出现极端温暖和寒冷的十年期。
在中等排放情景下，我们发现出现负向十年期趋势——即全球表面温度在某个十年内平均下降——的概率增加了10%到18%。
与此同时，出现极端温暖十年期的概率也随之增加，这反映出火山强迫的变率会同时提高变暖和变冷极端事件发生的可能性。
这一结果凸显了火山喷发如何在十年时间尺度上对全球气温趋势带来显著的波动。
迈向更完善的气候预测
了解火山对气候的影响，对于全面评估农业、基础设施和能源系统在未来所面临的风险至关重要。
使用全面的地球系统模型运行数千种火山情景并不切实际，因为这需要极高的计算资源。但与此同时，当前的方法也存在上文提到的显著局限。
不过，在未来的气候模型工作中，仍有折中方案可行。
即将开展的下一阶段气候建模实验——即CMIP7情景模式比较计划——可以采用更具代表性的“平均”火山强迫基线，这一基线纳入了历史记录中常被遗漏的小型喷发事件的影响。这一偏差现已在用于下一代气候模型模拟的历史火山强迫数据集中得到纠正。
此外，建模团队还应额外运行包含高频和低频未来火山活动的情景，以全面捕捉火山不确定性对气候预测的影响范围。
虽然人类导致的温室气体排放仍是气候变化的主导因素，但若能妥善考虑火山活动的不确定性，将有助于我们获得更全面的未来气候图景及其对社会的潜在影响。
The post 嘉宾来稿：探究火山喷发如何影响气候预测 appeared first on Carbon Brief.
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