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The installation of solar panels and heat pumps in UK homes soared in 2023, driving the country to its highest-ever level of domestic low-carbon technology upgrades.

Registered solar photovoltaic (PV) installations rose nearly 30% to a post-subsidy record of 189,826 in 2023, according to the Microgeneration Certification Scheme (MCS).

Similarly, heat-pump installations were up 20%, reaching a record 36,799.

This growth drove a UK record for the total number of domestic renewable electricity and low-carbon heat technologies installations registered by MCS, which reached 229,618.

This brings the total MCS-certified installations of solar PV overall to 1,441,753 since 2009, equivalent to more than 5% of all UK households.

The near-record figure for home solar in 2023 is particularly significant because it came without any government support, whereas previous growth was driven by deadlines under the Feed-in-Tariff (FiT) subsidy scheme, which ended in 2019.

Below, Carbon Brief looks at MCS’s installation figures for 2023, picking out some of the most significant domestic developments.

Record clean energy growth

The UK had already recorded its “best-ever” year for renewable energy and low-carbon heat installations before 2023 came to end, as Solar Power Portal reported in December.

While solar PV and air-source heat pumps (ASHP) saw growth in their installation rates in 2023, other clean technologies dropped off somewhat.

By the end of the year, a record total of 229,618 MCS certified installations had been registered (there is the potential for a small change to the total, due to a lag with registrations, MCS told Carbon Brief).

This included a post-subsidy record 189,826 solar PV installations, up by a third from the 138,020 seen in 2022.

Solar Energy UK chief executive Chris Hewett said in a statement:

“Setting a post-subsidy record of almost 190,000 smaller-scale solar PV installations, and approaching the all-time record of 203,000, is truly a moment to celebrate. The solar industry is on a roll, particularly as we start to conclude work on the government-industry Solar Taskforce, whose roadmap for delivering 70GW [gigawatts] of capacity is due to be published in a couple of months.”

The number of MCS-registered ASHP installations grew to a record 36,799 in 2023 from 29,490 a year earlier. (The real number of heat pumps installed in the UK is likely to be higher, as there is currently no mandate for all low-carbon technology deployments to be certified, or reported in a single place.)

Bean Beanland, director for growth at trade association the Heat Pump Federation, tells Carbon Brief the growth in demand for ASHPs was being driven by increasing activity from “early movers”, as well as by the boiler upgrade scheme (BUS) subsidy, which was introduced in 2022 and increased in 2023.

The BUS initially offered a £5,000 grant for those installing an ASHP or biomass boiler and £6,000 for a ground-source heat pump (GSHP). This was raised to £7,500 for both ASHPs and GSHPs in October 2023.

Beanland adds:

“[Following the increase in the grant] one of our members went back to all the consumers who they had quoted during 2023, detailing the increase, but where they had not converted the opportunity. The result was a significant number of contracts, so the additional £2,500 has certainly made a difference.

“In parallel, the whole visibility of the technology is being driven by the likes of Octopus, Good Energy and OVO, with their very high-profile campaigns and the advent of time-of-use tariffs that improve the financial benefits considerably.”

Customers who are able to afford to deploy solar PV, a battery and a heat pump can use such tariffs to reduce operational cost, allowing the heat pump to compete with gas, he adds.

The number of GSHP installations fell from 3,420 to 2,469, while solar-thermal installations nearly halved, falling from 615 to 311.

Beanland says:

“The value of the BUS for ground-source is just far too low. Government has made a conscious decision to go for numbers rather than the highest efficiency by supporting air-source to a much greater extent. This has been compounded now that the BUS levels for air- and ground- are the same.”

The surge in ASHP means that low-carbon heating technologies still saw an overall increase in 2023, rising by 20% year-on-year, as reported by BusinessGreen.

Despite this growth, however, the installation of heat pumps remains a long way from hitting the UK government target of 600,000 installations per year by 2028.

UK heat pumps and solar drive home installation record in 2023
Heat pump (red), solar PV (blue) and other low-carbon installation figures from 2019-2023, from MCS’s Dashboard. Source: MCS. Chart: Molly Lempriere for Carbon Brief.

While the MCS dashboard does not provide data on battery storage installations, a recent release from the company states that 2023 was a record-breaking year for the technology. MCS says batteries were the third most popular technology type to be installed in homes by its certified contractor base.

Of the 4,700 certified batteries registered with MCS, 4,400 were installed in 2023, it adds.

With the energy price cap on average domestic energy bills now sitting below £2,000 per year and installation costs having increased with inflation, it is unclear whether the high levels of solar PV installations in 2023 will be maintained this year.

Solar Energy UK’s chief communications officer Gareth Simkins says:

“Speculation is always a dangerous game. I think it is reasonable for current deployment rates – around 15,000 a month – to continue. This will not just be retrofits of course – we expect more newbuild homes to carry solar, too.”

Monthly solar installations hit highs

Last year saw monthly installations of rooftop solar PV start to hit the levels seen in 2015, when government subsidies were still available, as shown by the red bars in the figure below.

March 2023 saw 20,073 registered solar PV installations, putting it in the top 10 months seen in the UK. Both 11th and 12th places were claimed by months in 2023 too, with June seeing 18,049 installations and May seeing 17,787 installations.

The rest of the top 10 installation months are dominated by 2011, 2012 and 2015. This was driven largely by subsidy deadlines, with a rush seen ahead of cuts leading to record-high installation periods.

Home solar is approaching record popularity despite end to subsidies
The top 12 highest months for solar PV installation in the UK between 2009 and 2023, according to the MCS Dashboard, with the three months in 2023 shown in red. Source: MCS. Chart: Molly Lempriere for Carbon Brief.

In 2012, the FiT subsidy for solar was cut in half, reducing from 43.3p per kilowatt hour (kWh) to just 21p per kWh. This cut returns from solar electricity from around 7% to 4%, according to the Guardian.

In doing so it almost doubled the payback period for households, with some seeing their £10,000-12,000 solar panels only being in credit after 18 years rather than 10, the Guardian reported at the time.

This change followed then-climate change minister Greg Barker launching a consultation into the subsidies in an effort to avoid the industry falling victim to “boom and bust“.

Following the change, installations fell by nearly 90%, according to Department of Energy and Climate Change figures reported in the Guardian.

Installations dropped from 26,941 in March 2012 to 5,522 in April 2012, according to MCS figures, although there was a further surge later that year.

Throughout 2013, installations remained relatively subdued, growing through 2014 before peaking again in 2015. Installations hit 25,614 in December 2015, but this came ahead of further FiT reduction in February 2016, which sent “shockwaves” through the sector and saw installations drop dramatically

The FiT came to an end in 2019, with the solar export guarantee brought in 2020, which sets a minimum price for electricity exported to the grid.

Following the resulting lull in installations, domestic solar PV has once again been growing. The difference this time is that there is no underlying subsidy driving growth, with rising energy bills and longer-term falls in technology costs making the technology increasingly appealing.

Speaking to Carbon Brief, Solar Energy UK’s Simkins says:

“Oddly enough, it shows the success of FiTs in creating a market for solar in the first place, with the industry now standing entirely on its own two feet without government support.”

Installation costs rise

The inflationary impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic and the subsequent energy crisis led to an increase in solar technology costs in 2023.

Consequently, installation costs have risen over recent years, according to MCS. Across every month in 2023, average installation costs sat above £10,000 – the only time in more than a decade that they have reached that level, as shown in the figure below.

This has been impacted by the scale of the installations to a certain extent, with the installation cost per kilowatt (kW) seeing a more limited increase. Across 2022, the average cost of installing solar per kW was £1,804 and in 2023 this rose to £2,020.

Moreover, in some months, solar was actually cheaper per kilowatt (kW) in 2023 than in 2022, MCS data shows.

It is also worth noting that the increase in the cost of solar installations has not been as dramatic as the increase in energy bills over the past couple of years.

The energy crisis drove up domestic energy bills from late 2021, as supply chain squeezes driven in part by the Russian invasion of Ukraine sent gas prices to record highs.

As a result, the default tariff price cap for consumers jumped from £​​1,277 per year in the six months to March 2022, to £1,971 over that summer, and then to £3,549 over the winter of 2022.

It then surged again to £4,279 over the first quarter of 2023, before it began to fall (the energy price guarantee came into force in October 2022, superseding the rate of the price cap, and limiting domestic energy bills to £2,500 initially).

The surge in domestic energy prices highlighted the exposure of the British energy system to fluctuations in international gas markets. In doing so, it is likely it helped drive uptake of domestic solar – as shown in the figure below – as households looked to cushion themselves from potential future surges.

The energy bills spike has driven near-record growth in home solar
The increase in solar installations (red) in the UK based on MCS Dashboard data, and the average energy bills per month, relative to pre-pandemic average (blue) based on Ofgem’s default tariff price cap and the energy price guarantee. Source: MCS, Ofgem. Chart: Carbon Brief.

Speaking to Carbon Brief, solar wholesaler Midsummer’s commercial director Jamie Vaux says installation costs are now coming down.

The high installation costs and long installation lead times in 2022, were driven by demand exceeding supply, he says. With new installers entering the market and mortgage rates and inflation hitting consumer spending, this has started to ease, he adds.

Average installation prices per kW peaked at £2,111 in April 2023, before slowly falling throughout the year.

Vaux explains:

“Essentially, those who had the funds available when the energy crisis hit have already had their installations, and while many still want solar, the rate stopped climbing so steeply and the curve flattened at the same time as more installers were there to meet the demand. It has become more competitive at the installation level, and installation costs have (gradually) fallen as a result.”

There is also currently a glut of solar modules, which could help prices continue to fall and stimulate further update of solar, according to Vaux.

There is currently “a year’s worth of modules already sitting in EU warehouses, and devaluing daily”, Vaux adds, meaning top-tier modules can be bought for a fraction of prices seen in 2022.

Solar Scotland

The area with the overall highest share of households with solar PV installations since the start of MCS data in 2009 is Stirling in Scotland, where 16.7% of households have solar PV (6,994 households).

Perhaps surprisingly, given their poorer insolation rates relative to other parts of the UK, Scottish local authorities appear four times in the top 10, as shown in the figure below.

Scotland’s housing policy means it is mandatory for solar to be fitted on all new build properties, helping to boost installation rates.

The areas with the highest percentage of households with solar PV installations are clustered in Scotland and the south west
The 10 local authorities with the highest percentage of households with solar PV installations from 2009-2023, based on MCS data, showing installations clustered in Scotland, Wales and the southwest. Source: MCS. Map: Carbon Brief.

In terms of installations completed during 2023, the Isle of Anglesey came out on top, with 1,083 systems added, amounting to 3.5% of households.

The top 10 for last year is dominated by Welsh and Scottish local authorities, with just one English local authority making it into the list – South Cambridgeshire in ninth place.

There are five Scottish local authorities (Dumfries and Galloway, East Lothian, Perth, Moray and Kinross and Midlothian) and four Welsh local authorities (Isle of Anglesey, Ceredigion, Powys and Pembrokeshire).

The 10 local authority areas with the lowest percentage of solar PV installations since 2009 are all in London, with Kensington and Chelsea coming out on top with just 0.4% (or 297) of households having registered solar PV installed, according to MCS.

It is worth noting that due to the density of the households in London and other major cities, they are over-represented in the lowest percentage list for solar installations.

For example, Wandsworth – which comes out as having the tenth lowest rate of just 1.1% of households having solar PV – only has 1,496 installations.

Meanwhile, Torridge in Devon – which has the eighth highest rate of installations in the UK at 12.8% – has 3,899 solar PV installations. While this is more than double the number is Wandsworth, the much larger difference in percentage terms highlights the impact of population size in each local authority area.

The same is broadly true of 2023. While the area last year with the lowest installation rate was Derry City and Strabane, with just 73 installations (0.1% of households), the bottom ten is still dominated by London boroughs, which made up eight of the list.

Detached properties are the most common when it comes to solar PV installations, with 50,8193 of the MCS registered solar PV installations since 2009 (35.2%) having been fitted on detached properties, versus 447,415 on semi-detached, 288,886 on terraced, 187,131 on flats and apartments and 10,100 on other properties.

This means detached properties – which tend to be larger, with more roof area – are over-represented in terms of their share of solar installations, as shown in the figure below.

Detached properties are over represented in solar PV installs
Percentage of properties in England and Wales that are detached, semi-detached, terraced, flat/apartment or other based on data from the ONS, and the percentage of properties types with solar PV installations in England and Wales between 2009-2023, based on MCS data. Source: MCS. Chart: Carbon Brief.

The post Analysis: Surge in heat pumps and solar drives record for UK homes in 2023 appeared first on Carbon Brief.

Analysis: Surge in heat pumps and solar drives record for UK homes in 2023

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CCC: England’s approach to climate adaptation is ‘not working’

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The “vast majority” of the UK government’s plans to prepare for climate hazards have made virtually no progress over the past two years, according to the Climate Change Committee (CCC).

In that time, the world has experienced the hottest year on record, while England has seen its wettest ever 18-month stretch between 2022 and 2024.

(Climate adaptation – outside of some issues such as defence – is mostly a devolved matter, with separate plans in place from the administrations for Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.)

The previous government introduced a new adaptation strategy for England in 2023, covering plans for rising temperatures and more extreme weather in the country.

However, in its latest analysis of the government’s progress, the CCC states that the current approach to adaptation in England is “not working” and requires “urgent strengthening”.

The government is failing to make “good” progress in adapting to climate change on any of the 46 outcomes measured by the committee, ranging from better healthcare during heatwaves to preparing financial institutions for climate risk.

The report marks the latest in a series of appraisals by the CCC that have repeatedly identified large gaps in the nation’s adaptation efforts.

This time, with a relatively new Labour government that has said it will act on adaptation, the committee says its report “must serve as the turning point”.

But the CCC also says it is “seriously concerned” that the government will cut funding for adaptation, ultimately leading to much higher future costs as temperatures continue to rise.

Climate adaptation is ‘vital’

There is “unequivocal evidence” that climate change is already making extreme weather in the UK “more likely and more extreme”, the CCC says.

The report lays out major risks facing the country, noting that the number of properties at risk from flooding is set to increase from 6.3m today to 8m by 2050. Roads and railways at risk from flooding could increase from a third of the total length to half over the same timeframe.

At least 59% of top-quality farmland is already at risk from flooding, the report says, adding that this could also increase over the coming decades.

Meanwhile, annual heat-related deaths could increase “several times over” to pass 10,000 in an average year by 2050, the CCC says.

It also cites an Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) report from 2024 that concludes the UK’s GDP could be around 3% lower by 2074, even under the Paris Agreement’s “below 2C” goal. It says this could increase to 5% in a “below 3C” scenario, according to the OBR.

High-quality climate adaptation is therefore “vital to ensure that these risks are managed most efficiently and at least cost”, according to the committee. Otherwise, government policy could “lock in” risks or even make them worse.

The CCC reports on adaptation progress in England every two years, as required under the 2008 Climate Change Act. These reports have consistently highlighted adaptation as an issue that has been “underfunded and ignored” by successive governments.

There have been a few major developments since the committee’s last report.

Notably, the previous Conservative government launched its third national adaptation programme (NAP3), which is the cornerstone of the nation’s adaptation policy, in summer 2023. (NAP3 covers adaptation policy in England, as well as non-devolved issues that affect the whole UK, such as defence.)

In a highly critical initial appraisal of the programme, the CCC concluded that it fell “far short of what is needed” and “must be strengthened”. NAP3 has also faced an ultimately unsuccessful legal challenge from activists, arguing that it breached people’s human rights.

Another big development since the committee’s last report is Labour winning the general election in 2024. The CCC acknowledges that the new government “inherited a NAP that fell short of the task”, but says it finds “little evidence of a change of course”.

What progress has been made?

The report looks at both the “policies and plans” underpinning climate adaptation, as well as the actual “delivery and implementation” of those plans. It states:

“Whilst there is some evidence of policies and plans improving [since 2023], it is clear that NAP3 has been ineffective in driving the critical shift towards effective delivery of adaptation.”

The CCC assesses the planning and delivery of 46 outcomes from adaptation policy across five overarching themes. It scores them using roughly the same monitoring framework used in its last report in 2023.

It notes that 11 policies and plans have improved over the past two years, including a new adaptation strategy from the Ministry of Justice and a green finance strategy.

Over the same period, it says four have gotten worse, among them investment in flood protection projects, as plans no longer align with their stated objectives”.

The lack of significant improvement between 2023 and 2025, based on the CCC’s scoring system, can be seen in the chart below.

Climate adaptation outcome scores for “policies and plans”, assigned by the CCC in its progress report.
Climate adaptation outcome scores for “policies and plans”, assigned by the CCC in its progress report. This chart compares the 2023 CCC report, which is based on an assessment of 45 outcomes, with the 2025 report, which uses the same outcomes plus one extra, bringing the total to 46. Source: Carbon Brief analysis of CCC adaptation progress reports from 2023 and 2025.

As for the government actually delivering on its plans, the CCC says the “vast majority of our outcomes have received the same score as in 2023, most at low levels”.

The small number of improvements mainly relate to the latest round of implementation of the “adaptation reporting power”, which allows the government to ask infrastructure providers to disclose how they deal with climate risks.

The chart below, which compares the scores given to different adaptation outcomes between 2023 and 2025, demonstrates the lack of progress in the intervening years.

The CCC concludes that none of the outcomes could be classified as making “good” progress, in terms of delivery. Only four of them saw improvements over this period.

It highlights the water supply as an area where there has been backsliding over the past two years, noting that “continued slow rate of leakage reduction is now clearly inconsistent with meeting the sector’s targets”.

Climate adaptation outcome scores for “delivery and implementation”,  assigned by the CCC in its progress report.
Climate adaptation outcome scores for “delivery and implementation”, assigned by the CCC in its progress report. This chart compares the 2023 CCC report, which is based on an assessment of 45 outcomes, with the 2025 report, which uses the same outcomes plus one extra, bringing the total to 46. The 2023 report used the category “mixed” instead of “limited” or “partial”, both of which are used in 2025. Source: Carbon Brief analysis of CCC adaptation progress reports from 2023 and 2025.

The CCC also points out that “tracking progress on adaptation remains challenging due to limited national-scale, up-to-date and relevant data”.

While there has been an improvement since 2023, nine of the 46 assessed outcomes for England still lacked enough evidence to assess progress, the report says.

These include important areas such as the impact of climate change on food supplies and the vulnerability of telecommunications and information and communication technology (ICT) assets.

In addition, ahead of NAP3, the CCC recommended – as part of its 2023 progress report – a list of 89 actions to close what it viewed as “policy gaps in government’s adaptation planning”.

It suggested that these could be dealt with either in NAP3 itself, or as part of other policy programmes.

However, only four of these recommendations have been achieved, with a further 14 seeing “partial progress”.

The report highlights food security, community preparedness and buildings as some of the areas where the government did not follow through on its recommendations.

What does the CCC recommend?

The CCC’s report echoes previous advice that, despite some improvements in NAP3 on previous efforts, the nation’s climate adaptation strategy needs an overhaul:

“The UK’s current approach to adaptation policy making is not working. Adaptation is not the cross-government priority that it needs to be, which is holding back delivery.”

NAP3 covers a five-year period from 2023 to 2028. With the latest report coming at a halfway point in this cycle, the committee says it “must serve as the turning point” for the government on climate adaptation.

As part of the “urgent strengthening” suggested in the report, the committee sets out key areas that it says should be improved.

“Adaptation” can mean different things in different contexts. The CCC stresses the need for a set of “specific and measurable sectoral targets” that can be used to guide progress, with clarity on how to monitor them and who is responsible.

The government has signalled its intention to strengthen adaptation objectives. The committee says that such objectives “must” be developed as a priority, no later than the end of 2025.

The CCC report highlights the “data gaps” that need to be closed, with “monitoring and evaluation…still not treated with sufficient urgency”. It says the government should direct relevant agencies to collect data on climate risks and the delivery of adaptation measures.

Adaptation is a topic that affects every area of government, from healthcare to education. Yet the CCC highlights that there is not enough coordination of activities between departments and says this should be improved.

In order to carry out adaptation policies, the CCC also stresses that the government “needs to ensure sufficient funding is available” as it undertakes its spending review. Baroness Brown, chair of the CCC’s adaptation committee, told journalists in a press briefing:

“We are seriously concerned that resilience and climate adaptation may be cut in the spending review. [The] government needs to recognise that this is not a future problem, this is today’s problem…I know the government is under a lot of pressure to make cuts, but this isn’t the easy one.”

Given the cost of future climate risk, the committee stresses that ignoring adaptation would not, ultimately, save money. In fact, acting early would “minimise the overall costs of tackling climate change”, it explains.

In the press briefing, CCC chief executive Emma Pinchbeck emphasised the “real need” for the government to think about the future when implementing key policies, such as home-building programmes and other major infrastructure developments.

“If you think about potential waste in terms of investment into the NHS, if we then have to retrofit hospitals to make them cooler,” she said, as an example.

How prepared are different sectors for climate change?

The CCC progress report looks at specific outcomes broken down across five broad sectors.

Within these, it highlights key problems and makes specific recommendations for each area.

Land, nature and food

The CCC highlights various “foundational” strategies covering farming and land that the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) is expected to publish in the coming months, including the land-use framework and the food strategy.

Delays in publishing such documents have “hampered” adaptation progress. However, the report highlights them as opportunities to set out clear objectives and responsibilities for the sector.

As it stands, important issues such as boosting climate-resilient farming and protecting food supply chains are rated “insufficient” for both government planning and implementation.

The CCC highlights the relatively new “environmental land management schemes” (Elms), which constitute England’s successor to the EU’s farm payments policy.

The report says these schemes lack guidance for climate adaptation, adding that the government should provide “certainty” about how much farmers will be paid for such measures.

As for the fishing industry, the report has downgraded its climate-adaptation plans, noting that they “no longer look credible”. It says the government’s marine strategy, published earlier this year, “does not include any specific or targeted adaptation actions”.

Infrastructure

According to the CCC, when the government publishes its 10-year infrastructure strategy, it should set out “clear resilience standards” for new infrastructure projects.

It also notes that major funding packages – for new roads and electricity networks, for example – should include incentives to fund climate adaptation.

Two out of the three adaptation policies that are scored as “good” are in the infrastructure sector, namely the plans for maintaining reliability in the road and rail networks.

Despite this, actual progress in improving transport resilience is largely “stagnant”, the committee says. It highlights increased flooding on railways and an increased number of roads deemed “susceptible” to flooding.

This is also the sector that has seen the most improvement in terms of delivery and implementation. The water, energy, telecommunications and transport sectors are all described as improving the identification and management of “interdependencies”.

This refers to better evidence of links between different sectors, which is being unveiled via adaptation reporting power. Notably, none of the sectors that have seen improvements are rated as “good”, indicating they still have work to do in this area.

Built environment and communities

Flooding is highlighted as the key risk facing many communities around England.

While the Environment Agency-led flood defence programme has been successful, “its budget in real terms is shrinking as risks are escalating, meaning delivery is falling short of targets and the condition of flood defence assets is declining”, according to the CCC.

The government’s investment programme needs “long-term” targets for cutting the risk posed by floods and coastal erosion, supported by sufficient funds, the report concludes.

It also recommends a “long-term cross-sector plan to manage future heat risk and drive joined-up action”.

The CCC is currently unable to track many of the important measures around heat risk, such as how many buildings are overheating, due to a lack of data.

Overall, none of the efforts to implement better protections for homes and communities have seen any positive change since 2023, despite this being a record period of heat and flooding.

Health and wellbeing

The CCC notes that there are only “limited” policies and plans in place to protect population health and healthcare delivery in the face of escalating climate hazards.

Extreme heat is the main risk identified in this context. As it stands, there are long-term, increasing trends of heat-associated deaths and overheating in hospital settings, the committee says.

In this context, the report recommends that the government develop an “improved climate and public health adaptation plan” that builds on the existing adverse weather and health plan.

Also, as part of the government’s decade-long plan to improve the NHS, the CCC says any upgrades must “make it more resilient to climate extremes today and in the future”.

Economy

The committee says that while businesses can take action to protect their own affairs from climate change, “barriers remain” and adaptation finance “remains nascent”.

It therefore highlights an important role for the government in removing these barriers, providing high-quality information and “correcting market failures”.

The report recommends setting up a portal for adaptation-related data that can be accessed by companies.

It also says the government should ensure that the UK’s sustainable disclosure requirements incorporate “adaptation-related disclosure”, to better prepare the private sector for climate risks.

The CCC also points out that an adaptation finance “deliverables and action plan”, promised for 2024, has not been produced. Among other things, this plan should lay out ways to “mobilise” private investment into adaptation projects, it adds.

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CCC: England’s approach to climate adaptation is ‘not working’

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DeBriefed 25 April 2025: Brazil calls for country emissions plans; Global coral bleaching; Where top pope contenders stand on climate

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Welcome to Carbon Brief’s DeBriefed. 
An essential guide to the week’s key developments relating to climate change.

This week

Push for new climate targets

MISSED DEADLINE: During a virtual meeting of 17 world leaders, Brazilian president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and UN secretary general António Guterres urged countries to come forward with their overdue climate plans, according to Folha de São Paulo. Diplomats from Brazil, which is hosting COP30, are working with UN officials to encourage countries to launch their new 2035 “nationally determined contributions” (NDCs) by September, Reuters explained. Carbon Brief analysis showed nearly every country missed the original deadline to submit new NDCs in February.

CHINA PLEDGE: Chinese president Xi Jinping announced during the meeting that China will submit its new NDC, covering all economic sectors and all greenhouse gases, ahead of COP30 in November, according to Xinhua. In addition, China Daily reported that Xi told attendees China would not slow down its climate action, “regardless of changes in the international landscape”.

Worst coral bleaching on record

NO END IN SIGHT: Coral bleaching has struck 84% of the world’s reefs in what the International Coral Reef Initiative has described as the worst global bleaching event on record, the Associated Press reported. The ongoing incident, caused by warming oceans, began in 2023 and it is “not clear” when it will end, according to the news outlet.

GLOBAL THREAT: In total, reefs in at least 82 countries and territories “have been exposed to enough heat to turn corals white”, according to the Guardian. Scientists in north and central America “were among the first to raise the alarm” after record ocean temperatures in the summer of 2023 and in recent weeks bleaching has spread to east African reefs, the newspaper added.

Around the world

  • CLIMATE-DRIVEN: The early arrival of an April heatwave in north India and Pakistan that saw temperatures reach 49C was “largely driven” by climate change, according to a new analysis by the French organisation ClimaMeter, reported by the Times of India.
  • TRADE WAR: The US has announced plans to impose tariffs on solar-panel imports from four southeast Asian countries – with some Cambodian exporters facing duties as high as 3,521% – according to BBC News. Meanwhile, the Trump administration has responded to rumours by stating it has no plans “at this time” to attempt to remove tax exempt status from US climate NGOs, Reuters reported.
  • NEW MARKET: Brazil is taking the “initial steps” to launch South America’s first-ever carbon market for major emitters within the country, which is expected to be operating by 2029, according to E&E News.
  • AUSTRALIA ELECTION: As Australia’s election looms, right-leaning Coalition leader Peter Dutton has confirmed that he would “scrap a popular tax break” for electric-vehicle drivers, the Guardian reported. Carbon Brief examined where Australia’s major parties stand on climate, energy and biodiversity loss.
  • HIGH ENERGY: An energy-security summit hosted in London by the UK government and the International Energy Agency saw prime minister Keir Starmer issue “some of his strongest comments yet” in support of net-zero policies, according to BusinessGreen

$28 trillion

The scale of the climate-related damage caused by emissions from 111 of the world’s biggest companies, according to a new Nature paper that the Washington Post said could “fuel” global climate litigation.


Latest climate research

  • A new study in Nature Climate Change concluded that the urban heat island effect – where cities experience higher temperatures than their surrounding rural areas – increases heat-related deaths, but also currently curbs deaths during cold spells at a higher rate.
  • A paper in Nature Reviews Clean Technology, also covered in a Carbon Brief guest post, explored “realistic” roles for hydrogen in the global energy transition, concluding that fuel-cell cars and space heating are “among the least promising applications”.
  • Sudden shifts from extreme warm to cold temperatures – and vice-versa – have become more frequent, intense and rapid over the past 60 years, according to new research published in Nature Communications.

(For more, see Carbon Brief’s in-depth daily summaries of the top climate news stories on Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.)

Captured

Conservative election win could add 800m tonnes to Canada’s emissions by 2035

A Conservative victory over the Liberals in the upcoming Canadian election could lead to nearly 800m extra tonnes of greenhouse gas emissions over the next decade, according to Carbon Brief analysis. Modelling by researchers from Simon Fraser University and University of Victoria shows that if the Conservatives follow through on their pledges to cut various climate policies, Canadian emissions would likely start to creep up in the coming years. However, as the analysis shows, even the Liberals’ policy platform would not put Canada on track to meet any of its climate targets, on the way to net-zero emissions by 2050.

Spotlight

How do the top papal candidates compare on climate?

Following the death of Pope Francis, Carbon Brief explores the various papal contenders’ views on climate issues.

Pope Francis, who died this week, has been praised for making climate action a core part of his work as the spiritual leader of the world’s 1.4 billion Catholics.

His influence extended far beyond the church and included directly lobbying oil companies, engaging in UN climate talks and criticising world leaders’ lack of action.

In 2015, the pope published Laudato Si – the first papal encyclical dedicated to the environment. As Carbon Brief reported at the time, it drew heavily on climate science and even called for fossil fuels to be phased out.

There is much speculation about whether Francis’s successor will continue his relatively progressive agenda, including on climate change.

Below, Carbon Brief examines the climate credentials of the cardinals that have been tipped as most likely to be chosen as the next pope during the church’s secret “conclave” process.

Papal candidates (left to right) Peter Turkson, Luis Antonio Tagle, Robert Sarah and Pietro Parolin.
Papal candidates (left to right) Peter Turkson, Luis Antonio Tagle, Robert Sarah and Pietro Parolin.

Pietro Parolin

The current favourite to become pope is Pietro Parolin, an Italian cardinal who has served as the Vatican’s secretary of state since 2013. He leads the Holy See’s delegation at UN climate summits.

He has stressed the “unequivocal” evidence and “scientific consensus” behind climate change. Speaking on behalf of Francis at COP28, Parolin described environmental destruction as “an offence against God, a sin that is not only personal, but also structural”.

The Holy See ratified the Paris Agreement in 2022 and has been actively involved in COP negotiations. In 2024, Parolin’s delegation attracted controversy when diplomats accused it of aligning with Saudi Arabia, Iran and Russia to block gender discussions at COP29.

Peter Turkson

Ghanaian cardinal Peter Turkson, chancellor of the Pontifical Academy of Sciences, has been influential in international climate politics.

During his time as president of the Pontifical Council for Justice and Peace, Turkson spent 18 months guiding the drafting of Laudato Si. He was described by the Guardian as “the public face of Pope Francis’s war on global warming”.

The encyclical was launched to influence the nascent Paris Agreement and commentators have pointed to similarities in wording and themes between the documents. Turkson attended the Paris summit with a Vatican delegation and the goal of being a “catalyst” for action.

Luis Antonio Tagle

Another frontrunner, cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle has not had as much high-level involvement in climate politics as other candidates. However, he has often been compared with Francis due to his focus on social justice.

Tagle has been a vocal supporter of Laudato Si and has been involved in climate activism in his native Philippines. He has been active in the response to extreme weather in his country and has made the link between such events and climate change.

Robert Sarah

A conservative cardinal from Guinea, Robert Sarah has been welcomed by multiple right-leaning media outlets and is viewed by some as an “anti-woke” successor to Francis.

However, he has cited Francis’ teachings on the environment and pointed to the role of foreign interests in exploiting African resources. “They pollute the environment and leave the continent in endemic poverty,” he wrote in 2019.

Other contenders

There is huge uncertainty surrounding the conclave voting process to choose the new pope and several other candidates are thought to be in the running.

Among them are the Italian cardinal Matteo Zuppi, another progressive who has called for “bold” action on climate change.

Another is Péter Erdő, a leading conservative candidate from Hungary. While Erdő has not been vocal on climate change, he has close ties with Hungarian prime minister Viktor Orbán, a strong opponent of climate action.

Watch, read, listen

SILENT MAJORITY: Covering Climate Now has launched “the 89% project”, a global media collaboration based on the idea that there is a “silent majority” of people around the world who want climate action.

ATTRIBUTION AND LITIGATION: Dr Friederike Otto and Dr Joyce Kimutai from the World Weather Attribution project at Imperial College London appeared on the New Scientist Weekly podcast to talk about how climate attribution science can be used to achieve climate justice, in part through litigation.

NIMBY NEWSCAST: Tortoise Media’s Slow Newscast investigated the “so-called zealots” who have been taking legal action against everything from road-building to energy projects in the UK, in an episode titled “nimby nation”.

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Greenhouse Gases

Australia election 2025: Where parties stand on climate change, energy and nature

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Australia is heading to the polls for a general election on 3 May.

The ruling centre-left Labor party has for the past three years attempted to fix Australia’s “climate-laggard” reputation by setting a legal net-zero target and approving a record number of renewable energy projects.

Prime minister Anthony Albanese is also hoping, if reelected, to stave off Turkey to host the COP31 climate summit in Adelaide, South Australia, in 2026.

However, the Labor party has faced criticism from climate analysts for approving new coal mines and expansions and pledging support for new gas projects until “beyond 2050”.

Labor’s main opposition, the Liberal-National Coalition, an alliance of right-leaning parties, hopes to reenter power on a plan centred around building seven nuclear power plants across the country.

Australia currently has no nuclear power.

The Coalition has also pledged to “ramp up” domestic gas production, slow the rollout of renewables and keep coal-fired power plants open for longer.

Its leader, Peter Dutton, has said that hosting COP31 would be “madness” and cost “tens of billions” of dollars.

In contrast to the two major parties, Australia’s Greens have policies to stop new coal and gas projects, end fossil fuel subsidies and instead pay homes and businesses to install solar and batteries.

Voting is compulsory in Australia.

Its preferential voting system will all but guarantee that one of the two major parties will enter power.

Current polling suggests that Labor will edge ahead of the Coalition to win the election, after preferences are distributed between the top two parties.

In the interactive grid below, Carbon Brief examines where Australian parties stand on climate change, energy and nature.

Each entry in the grid represents a direct quote from a party document.

The piece will be updated to include the Labor Party’s full plans once they have been announced.

Coal and campaigning

Australia is the third-largest exporter of fossil fuels in the world. Coal accounts for three-quarters of the nation’s total exports.

From 2021-22, Australia produced 422m tonnes of coal. When burned, this will create 1.1bn tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e).

Australia’s richest citizen, Gina Rinehart, makes her fortune from coal mining and is a supporter of climate-sceptic groups and a friend of Donald Trump.

Her company, Hancock Prospecting, is now the Coalition’s second-largest donor.

Coalition leader Dutton was forced to clarify that he believed in climate change after refusing to comment on the increasing impacts of warming during a TV debate with Albanese.

Newspaper magnate Rupert Murdoch rules over 60% of Australia’s print media through his company News Corp. He has been accused of using his media empire to sow “confusion and doubt” about climate change.

Biodiversity crisis

Australia is also one of the world’s 17 “megadiverse” countries, meaning it is home to some of Earth’s most rare, unique and abundant wildlife. It is one of just two developed countries to have this status, alongside the US.

The nation is facing a species extinction crisis. The Great Barrier Reef, Earth’s largest living structure, is projected to die off if the world does not meet its climate goals.

The logging of natural forests is still permitted in several Australian states, including Tasmania, New South Wales and Queensland.

Both of the major parties have been criticised for failing to centre the biodiversity crisis in their campaigning.

By contrast, the Greens have pledged to spend 1% of the budget on nature, end native forest logging nationally and spend $20bn on biodiversity restoration over the next decade.

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