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Solar Power to Grow 400% by 2030, Beating Down Coal

The International Energy Agency (IEA) recently released its World Energy Outlook 2024, highlighting big shifts in global energy trends. Solar power is at the forefront of this transformation, with projections showing that global solar electricity generation could grow fourfold by 2030. This growth is set to accelerate the decline of coal and reshape the global energy mix. 

Solar’s Big Moment: The Future of Power Generation

According to the report, global energy markets stabilized in 2023, with natural gas prices dropping after a spike in 2022 and energy demand growing by 2.1%, aligning with the pre-2020 average. However, under the Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS), demand growth is expected to slow to 0.7% annually until 2030. Most of this growth will be in emerging markets and developing economies. 

Efficiency improvements and increased electrification are key factors, with the Announced Pledges Scenario (APS) showing a slight decline in energy demand, and the Net Zero Emissions (NZE) Scenario indicating a more significant drop.

oil and natural gas price by scenario, 2010 - 2050
Source: IEA Energy Outlook 2024 Report

Electricity demand is set to grow across all scenarios, driven by economic progress, electrification of transport (such as electric vehicles), and the rising need for data centers. 

By 2033, solar is expected to surpass nuclear, wind, hydro, and natural gas as a major electricity source. Eventually, it could even overtake coal to become the largest source of electricity worldwide. This marks the beginning of what the IEA calls the “age of electricity,” where clean energy growth and efficiency gains gradually reduce our reliance on fossil fuels.

By 2035, electricity’s share of global consumption will reach 26% in STEPS, 29% in APS, and 36% in the NZE Scenario. In particular, China’s electricity demand is expected to surpass the combined demand of advanced economies by 2030.

electricity demand growth by scenario 2023-2035
Source: IEA Energy Outlook 2024 Report

How Renewables Are Reshaping Energy Markets

The rise of solar power is part of a larger shift toward cleaner energy sources. The IEA predicts that as more renewable energy like solar and wind comes online, global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from energy will reach their peak around 2025. This could be a major step forward in reducing the impact of climate change. 

However, the IEA warns that these changes alone aren’t enough to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement, which aims to limit global warming to well below 2°C, preferably to 1.5°C, above pre-industrial levels. Even with the growth of renewables, CO2 emissions are expected to fall only 4% below 2023 levels by 2030. This would still result in a global temperature increase of about 2.4°C—higher than the desired target.

To reach the 1.5°C target, the IEA outlines a path that it calls “increasingly narrow, but achievable.” This path requires three things:

  • a rapid shift to clean energy technologies,
  • faster adoption of electric systems, and
  • a big reduction in emissions—around 33%—by 2030.

Achieving these goals will demand new policies and large investments in renewable energy, especially in regions that still rely heavily on fossil fuels. 

The IEA suggests that along with expanding clean energy, improving energy efficiency is crucial to keeping global energy demand in check, even as economies and populations grow.

Electricity’s Rise For Cleaner Power 

The World Energy Outlook 2024 also explores various possibilities, including the growth of electric vehicles, energy demand from data centers, and the rising need for air conditioning due to more frequent heat waves. 

No matter the scenario, the IEA expects that demand for coal, oil, and natural gas will peak soon. This shift represents a turning point as the world moves from fossil fuels to renewable energy. 

Coal, which has been a major energy source, could start its decline by 2025, particularly as renewables like solar and wind gain ground in Asia, where coal has traditionally been dominant. Moving away from coal is crucial for reducing the carbon footprint of electricity production and for improving air quality in growing urban areas.

solar capacity by 2030

For oil and gas, demand is expected to peak around 2030 before gradually decreasing. The transition away from these fuels will be slower because of their key roles in transportation, petrochemicals, and manufacturing. 

  • The adoption of clean technologies, such as renewables and EVs, is driving a peak in demand for oil, natural gas, and coal by 2030. Yet, additional investment in clean energy is necessary to make more carbon emissions reductions.

However, as EVs become more popular and cleaner alternatives become available, the reliance on oil is expected to drop. The demand for natural gas is also projected to decline as options like green hydrogen and advanced battery storage become more viable. These alternatives are vital for hitting climate goals and ensuring energy security.

Achieving Net-Zero 2050 with Renewables

The report emphasizes that the growth of renewable energy is central to reshaping the world’s energy system. By 2030, renewable energy capacity could grow to nearly 3x of its current size. 

While this progress is significant, it’s still not enough to reach the ambitious goals to triple renewable capacity. To meet these goals, the IEA stresses the need for more policy support, innovation, and investment in renewables. 

  • Remarkably, solar and wind could provide nearly 60% of global electricity by 2050. However, fossil fuels still met 80% of global energy needs in 2023, though their demand could peak by 2030. 

One major factor driving the rise of clean energy is the falling cost of solar and wind power, which has made them competitive with traditional fossil fuels. The IEA estimates that solar capacity could exceed 16,000 gigawatts (GW) by 2050, a huge jump from current levels. 

solar manufacturing capacity and use, 2023 and 2030

This growth is supported by advancements in battery technology, which help balance the fluctuations of renewable energy sources like solar. In its latest forecasts, the IEA has increased its estimates for battery storage, showing more optimism about the role of these technologies in making renewable energy systems work smoothly.

battery manufacturing capacity and use, 2023 and 2030

Despite these promising trends, the IEA stresses that more action is needed to reach climate goals. To stay on track for net-zero emissions by 2050, the world needs more investments in renewable energy and policies that support the shift away from fossil fuels. This could include carbon pricing, subsidies for renewable projects, and regulations that push industries to be more energy efficient. 

According to the IEA, the world has the tools to move to a cleaner energy future, but it will take a lot of effort to make the transition happen quickly enough.

The post Solar Power to Grow 400% by 2030, Beating Down Coal appeared first on Carbon Credits.

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Where should an SME start with a carbon action plan?

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More and more small and medium-sized businesses are hearing the same question from their larger customers: What is your carbon footprint? That question now travels down entire supply chains, and it arrives next to tender requirements, certification criteria, and rising customer expectations.

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Carbon Footprint

Insetting vs Offsetting: Which Actually Counts Toward Your Scope 3 Targets

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The accounting differences that decide whether your nature investment shows up in inventory, in BVCM, or nowhere at all.

The question reaches a procurement team about three weeks before the next sustainability committee meeting. Someone has read about insetting. Someone else has just signed off on an offset purchase. The CSO wants to know if the two are interchangeable. The answer is no, and the GHG Protocol Land Sector and Removals Standard is the reason why.

This article walks through what each term means at audit-grade specificity, what the standards actually say about how each gets counted, and how to decide which tool fits which target. The insetting vs offsetting question is one of the most-searched in corporate climate strategy, and one of the most poorly answered. By the end of this piece, you should be able to brief a committee on the difference without notes.

The two definitions, in plain English

Offsetting means buying carbon credits generated outside your value chain and retiring them against your residual emissions. The reduction happens somewhere else, financed by you, and the credit is the receipt.

Insetting means investing in emission reductions or removals inside your own value chain, typically with suppliers, where the reduction is directly linked to the products and services you buy. The reduction happens inside the boundary of your Scope 3 inventory, and the accounting treatment is fundamentally different.

The shorthand from the University of Oxford’s Nature-based Insetting Initiative is useful: insetting is what you do with the supply chain you have; offsetting is what you do with the supply chain you do not have.

What the GHG Protocol Land Sector Standard actually says

The GHG Protocol Land Sector and Removals Standard, finalised in 2024 after a multi-year pilot, sets the rules for how land-based emission reductions and removals enter corporate inventories. The Standard distinguishes between inventory accounting (Scope 1, 2, and 3) and project or intervention accounting (a separate methodology for crediting).

For insetting, the practical implication is that supplier-level interventions, when properly measured and attributed, can reduce your Scope 3 category 1 (purchased goods and services) emissions in your inventory. The reduction is not a credit retired against the inventory; it is a lower inventory number, period.

For offsetting, the credit is retired separately. It can be reported as a contribution toward a net-zero claim under the SBTi Beyond Value Chain Mitigation framework or as part of a VCMI Carbon Integrity claim, but it does not lower the inventory number.

A practical consequence: if your Science Based Target requires a 50% absolute reduction in Scope 3 emissions by 2030, insetting moves you toward the target. Offsetting does not. This single point of difference reshapes the procurement decision.

When insetting counts toward Scope 3 (and when it does not)

Insetting counts toward Scope 3 only when several conditions are met:

  • The intervention must occur with an entity in your value chain.
  • The emissions reduction or removal must be measured against a defensible baseline.
  • The reduction must be attributed to your share of that supplier’s output, not double-counted with other buyers.
  • It must follow the inventory accounting rules in the GHG Protocol Land Sector Standard, not the project accounting rules used to generate credits.

The most common failure mode is double counting. If your supplier sells the same reduction as a credit on the voluntary market and also reports it to you as a Scope 3 reduction, the math breaks. The Standard requires you to address this risk, typically by purchasing and retiring the supplier-issued credit as part of your inventory or by contractual provisions that prevent the supplier from selling the reduction twice.

When insetting does not count toward Scope 3: when the intervention sits with a supplier you do not buy from, when the baseline is not defensible, when the attribution is unclear, or when the documentation does not survive audit. Those cases default to Beyond Value Chain Mitigation, which is still useful but operates on a different ledger.

The procurement and supplier engagement question

Insetting is harder than offsetting. That is the unfashionable truth most buyers eventually confront. Offsetting is a transaction; insetting is a relationship.

To run an insetting program, you need supplier mapping precise enough to know which farms or facilities sit at which Scope 3 boundary. You need an engagement model that gets suppliers to participate, which usually requires multi-year commitments and shared economics. You need an MRV architecture that measures the right things and produces audit-ready documentation. And you need a contractual structure that prevents double counting and protects both sides.

The trade-off you receive in return is significant. Reductions count against your inventory rather than your residual. Supplier relationships deepen, which protects sourcing continuity. Yield and quality improvements often follow regenerative interventions, which reduces your input cost over time. And the regulatory file, under CSRD, CSDDD, EUDR, and the SBTi FLAG Guidance, is materially stronger.

Choosing the right tool for the right target

A practical decision rule. If your target is a science-based Scope 3 reduction and you operate in a FLAG sector or source FLAG commodities, insetting is the structurally correct tool. If your target is a net-zero claim that includes neutralising hard-to-abate residual emissions outside your value chain, BVCM via high-integrity offsets is the structurally correct tool. Most companies with material Scope 3 exposure need both, in different proportions, sequenced over time.

The sequencing matters. Insetting takes longer to stand up but produces a permanent reduction in the inventory. Offsetting can be transacted faster but does not change the inventory and now sits under tighter claim restrictions. Treat them as complementary tools with different jobs, not as substitutes. The Accountability Framework Initiative and the IUCN Global Standard for Nature-based Solutions both provide useful guardrails for the insetting side, with biodiversity, human rights, and benefit-sharing requirements that go beyond carbon math.

If you are mapping a Scope 3 reduction roadmap and need to scope which interventions count toward your inventory versus which sit in Beyond Value Chain Mitigation, the carbon and sustainability experts at Carbon Credit Capital can help you structure a nature-based supply chain investment program that fits your FLAG exposure, your target architecture, and your audit horizon. Schedule a consultation.

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Carbon Footprint

Net zero needs nature: a carbon credit guide

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Net zero is often described as a balancing act: cut what you can, account for the rest, and reach zero on the ledger. That framing is useful, but it leaves something out. It treats every tonne of carbon as interchangeable and every route to zero as equally sound, while the science tells a more specific story.

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