Meeting Paris Agreement goals that have put the world on track for warming of 2.6C this century would halve the average number of hot days globally each year in comparison with a scenario of unchecked rising emissions, new research has found.
Before the 2015 treaty, the world was headed for heating of 4C by 2100, which would have caused about 114 hot days annually compared with the 57 recorded today, said scientists at the World Weather Attribution (WWA) partnership and research organisation Climate Central.
“The Paris Agreement is a powerful, legally binding framework that can help us avoid the most severe impacts of climate change,” said Friederike Otto, climate science professor at the Centre for Environmental Policy, Imperial College London.
However, she said countries need to do more to shift away from oil, natural gas and coal, calling on political leaders to “take the reason for the Paris Agreement much more seriously … because every fraction of a degree of warming – whether it is 1.4, 1.5, or 1.7C – will mean the difference between safety and suffering for millions of people”.
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The Paris climate pact commits countries to try to limit global warming to 1.5C above pre-industrial times, but the UN Environment Programme’s 2024 Emissions Gap Report said countries’ current national targets meant the world was on track for a 2.6C increase.
Curbing future heat
The group of 18 researchers drawn from the WWA and Climate Central mapped 207 countries, analysing weather data and climate models to track the frequency of heat-related events since cooler pre-industrial times.
They found the reduction in projected warming from 4C to 2.6C by 2100 would result in at least 100 fewer hot days per year on average in nearly 30 countries and 57 fewer days globally. In Kenya, that could mean 82 fewer hot days, a reduction of 30 in India and the US and a drop of 29 hot days in China and Britain.
They also applied their analysis to six heatwaves, including a deadly heatwave that swept Mexico and part of the southwestern United States last year, killing scores of people.
Since the Paris Agreement was signed, the research found that the Mexican heatwave had become 86% more likely and about 0.3C hotter.
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Under the 2.6C warming scenario expected this century, similar heatwaves are expected to become an additional 1.7C hotter. But under the 4C outlook, such events would have been 3.5C hotter than what was observed in 2024, the researchers said.
But while the global treaty has helped avoid the worst possible outcomes, Kristina Dahl, vice president for science at Climate Central, said the world was still headed for “a dangerously hot future”.
“The impacts of recent heatwaves show that many countries are not well prepared to deal with 1.3C of warming, let alone the 2.6C of warming projected if – and it’s a big if – countries meet their current emissions reduction pledges.”
Dahl said “faster, deeper, and more ambitious emissions cuts are crucial to ensure future generations live in a safe climate”.
CO2 levels soar to record
On Wednesday, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said carbon dioxide (CO2) levels in the atmosphere soared by a record amount to new highs in 2024, putting the planet on a course for greater long-term temperature increases.
In its Greenhouse Gas Bulletin, the UN agency traced the increase to human activities, wildfires and a decline in absorption by so-called carbon sinks such as forests and the ocean.
WMO Deputy Secretary-General Ko Barrett said the heat trapped by greenhouse gases was “turbo-charging our climate and leading to more extreme weather”.
“Reducing emissions is therefore essential not just for our climate but also for our economic security and community well-being,” Barrett said.
Following a series of intense heatwaves across the world in 2024 – the hottest year on record, UN Secretary-General António Guterres warned that extreme heat has become the “new normal” and appealed to countries to reduce the devastating consequences.
Despite 500,000 heat-related deaths recorded annually, access to early-warning systems is limited in some regions and heat adaptation continues to lag, particularly when it comes to finance, governance and long-term measures, the WWA and Climate Central researchers said.
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They called for improved early-warning systems, heat action plans and monitoring mechanisms, especially in Africa, Latin America and parts of Asia, and said such policies should extend beyond the health sphere to be integrated into urban planning, labor protection, infrastructure and social policy.
They emphasised the importance of heat warnings by national weather services, currently only issued in about half of all countries, adding that long-term solutions such as increasing shaded areas and trees in cities and strengthening health systems could prevent about 100,000 deaths each year.
“The danger of heat will only increase this century, so it is crucial that every country implements measures that help keep people safe,” said Roop Singh, head of urban and attribution at the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre.
The post Paris Agreement helping to avert dozens of hot days each year, scientists say appeared first on Climate Home News.
Paris Agreement helping to avert dozens of hot days each year, scientists say
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Osprey Orielle Lake is founder and executive director of The Women’s Earth and Climate Action Network (WECAN) and a steering committee member of the Fossil Fuel Treaty.
Around the world, women are leading some of the most powerful efforts to stop fossil fuel expansion and implement the just transition the climate crisis demands.
In the Ecuadorian Amazon, Nemonte Nenquimo, an Indigenous Waorani woman, led a successful lawsuit for the Waorani against the Ecuadorian government to protect their territory and the Amazonian rainforest from oil extraction. Ecuador’s courts ruled in favor of the Waorani, setting a legal precedent for Indigenous rights and prompting similar legal fights worldwide.
In the heart of Cancer Alley in the Gulf South of the United States, Sharon Lavigne, founder of Rise St. James, took on fossil fuel polluters and won. After stopping a Formosa petrochemical facility in her parish, she continues to organize communities to stop fossil fuels, bringing awareness to the severe health impacts caused by the industry.
An initial cornerstone for an upcoming government convening on fossil fuel phaseout is the Fossil Fuel Treaty, which was founded by Tzeporah Burman. She won the 2019 Climate Breakthrough Award for her bold Treaty vision, which has now taken center stage in international climate action.
These women are not anomalies, they are part of a broader movement. Women the world over are stopping harmful projects and building regenerative futures. They are defending land, water, climate, and health. They are redefining what leadership looks like in a time of crisis.
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Research has found that countries with higher representation of women in parliament are more likely to ratify environmental treaties. One prominent cross-national study found that CO2 emissions decrease by approximately 11.51 percent in response to a one-unit increase in each countries’ scoring on the Women’s Political Empowerment Index. When women are incorporated into disaster planning or forest management, projects are more resilient and effective.
Yet because of persistent gender inequality, women – particularly Indigenous, Black and Brown women and women in low-income and frontline communities – are often disproportionately harmed by fossil fuel extraction and pollution. At the same time, they are also indispensable leaders of equitable solutions.
Bold, transformative solutions needed
Although the climate crisis may not be in the headlines recently, the crisis is increasing at lightening speed. From 2023 to 2025, the world crossed a dangerous threshold, marking the first three-year global average that exceeded the crucial 1.5°C guardrail, the very limit scientists identified as critical to avoid the worst catastrophic tipping points.
This is not a eulogy for 1.5°C, but an alarm about a narrowing window. The data makes clear that we still have an opportunity to hold long-term warming below that life-affirming threshold. What is required now is not incrementalism and business as usual but bold and transformative solutions from grassroots movements to the halls of government.
At the top of the list in tackling the climate crisis is the urgent need for a global phaseout of fossil fuel extraction and production. Coal, oil, and gas remain the primary driver of the climate crisis, and fossil fuel pollution is responsible for one in five deaths worldwide. The simple but challenging fact is, there is no way forward without a phaseout.
In 2023, at the U.N. Climate Summit in Dubai (COP28), governments agreed for the first time to “transition away from fossil fuels.” The language was historic but nonbinding, and implementation has been severely hindered. Most governments are doubling down and increasing production across coal, gas, and oil. At COP30 in Brazil, while 80 countries called for fossil fuel language in the final outcome text, governments ultimately left without any commitments to a phaseout.
Women’s assembly for fossil fuel phaseout
In response to this stalled progress, Colombia and the Netherlands are convening the First Conference on Transitioning Away from Fossil Fuels, bringing together governments committed to advancing cooperation toward a managed, equitable phaseout. Occurring outside the formal UN climate negotiations, the gathering reflects a growing recognition that progress often requires voluntary alliances of ambitious nations.
The urgency of this moment demands more than policy tweaks. It calls for a restructuring of the systems that fueled the crisis such as economic models that externalize harm, energy systems that prioritize profit over people, and governance structures that marginalize frontline communities. How we navigate this transition will shape the world our children inherit, and evidence shows that women’s leadership is vital to ensure a healthy and equitable outcome.
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As governments, civil society and global advocates prepare for the conference in Colombia, women’s leadership must not be an afterthought. It needs to be central to the agenda, inspired by equity, justice and care.
That is why the Women’s Earth and Climate Action Network is convening global women leaders to advance strategies, proposals, and projects at the public Women’s Assembly for a Just Fossil Fuel Phaseout to be held virtually on March 31 to call for transformative action in Colombia. All are welcome.
A livable future depends on bold action now, and on women leading the way at this critical moment.
The post Why women’s leadership is central to unlocking the global phaseout of fossil fuels appeared first on Climate Home News.
Why women’s leadership is central to unlocking the global phaseout of fossil fuels
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