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It is well understood that human-caused climate change is causing sea levels to rise around the world.

Since 1901, global sea levels have risen by at least 20cm – accelerating from around 1mm a year for much of the 20th century to 4mm a year over 2006-18. 

Sea level rise has significant environmental and social consequences, including coastal erosion, damage to buildings and transport infrastructure, loss of livelihoods and ecosystems.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has said it is “virtually certain” that sea level will continue to rise during the current century and beyond.

But what is less clear is exactly how quickly sea levels could climb over the coming decades.

This is largely due to challenges in calculating the rate at which land ice in Antarctica – the world’s largest store of frozen freshwater – could melt.

In this article, we unpack some of the reasons why projecting the speed and scale of future sea level rise is difficult.

Drivers of sea level rise

There are three principal components of sea level rise.

First, as the ocean warms, water expands. This process is known as thermal expansion, a comparatively straightforward physical process

Second, more water gets added to the oceans when the ice contained in glaciers and ice sheets on land melts and flows into the sea.

Third, changes in rainfall and evaporation – as well as the extraction of groundwater for drinking and irrigation, drainage of wetlands and construction of reservoirs – affect how much water is stored on land.

In its sixth assessment cycle (AR6), the IPCC noted that thermal expansion and melting land ice contributed almost equally to sea level rise over the past century. Changes in land water storage, on the other hand, played a minor role. 

However, the balance between these three drivers is shifting.

The IPCC projects that the contribution of melting land ice – already the largest contributor to sea level rise – will increase over the coming decade as the world continues to warm. 

The lion’s share of the Earth’s remaining land ice – 88% – is in Antarctica, with Greenland accounting for almost all of the rest. (Mountain glaciers in the Himalaya, Alps and other regions collectively account for less than 1% of total land ice.)

However, it is difficult to project exactly how much Antarctic ice will make its way into the sea between now and 2100.

As a result, IPCC projections cover a large range of outcomes for future sea level rise.

In AR6, the IPCC said sea levels would “likely” be between 44-76cm higher by 2100 than the 1995-2014 average under a medium-emissions scenario. However, it noted that sea level rise above this range could not be ruled out due to “deep uncertainty linked to ice sheet processes”.

The chart below illustrates the wide range of sea level rise projected by the IPCC under different warming scenarios (coloured lines) as well as a possible – but unlikely – worst-case scenario (dotted line).

The shaded areas represent the “likely range” of sea level rise under each warming scenario, calculated by analysing processes that are already well understood. The worst-case scenario dotted line represents a future where various poorly understood processes combine to lead to a very rapid increase in sea levels.

The graph shows that sea level rise increases with warming – and would climb most sharply under the “low-likelihood, high-impact” pathway.

Projections of global sea level rise
Projections of global sea level rise in very high (dark red), high (red), intermediate (orange), low (dark blue) and very low (light blue) warming scenarios, based on IPCC projections. The shaded areas represent the “likely range” of sea level rise, which only takes into account processes that are already well understood. The dotted line represents a worst-case scenario where various poorly understood processes combine. Adapted from IPCC (2023)

Retreat of glacier grounding lines

In Antarctica, the melting of ice on the surface of glaciers is limited. In many locations, warmer temperatures are leading to increases in snowfall and greater snow accumulation, which means the surface of the ice is continuously gaining mass.

Most of Antarctica’s contribution to global sea level rise is, therefore, not linked to ice melt at the surface. Instead, it occurs when giant glaciers push from land into the sea, propelled downhill by gravity and their own immense weight.

These huge masses of ice first grind downhill across the land and then along the seafloor. Eventually, they detach from the bedrock and start to float.

These floating ice shelves then largely melt from below, as warm ocean water intrudes into cavities on its underside. This is known as “basal melting”.

The boundary between grounded and floating ice is known as the “grounding line”.

In many regions of Antarctica, grounding lines typically sit at the high point of the bedrock, with the ice sheet deepening inland. This is illustrated in the graphic below.

Illustration of an Antarctic ice sheet, showing the grounding line where grounded ice transitions to floating ice, and how warm ocean water intrudes beneath the ice shelf, melting it from below.
Illustration of an Antarctic ice sheet, showing the grounding line where grounded ice transitions to floating ice, and how warm ocean water intrudes beneath the ice shelf, melting it from below. Credit: Freya Sykes, iC3.

When a grounding line is at a high point of the bedrock, it acts as a block which limits the area of ice exposed to basal melting.

However, if the grounding line retreats further inland, warm water could “spill” over the high point in the bedrock and carve out large cavities below the ice. This could dramatically accelerate the retreat of grounding lines further inland across Antarctica.

There is evidence to suggest that the retreat of grounding lines might cause a runaway effect, in which each successive retreat causes the ice behind the line to detach from the land even more quickly.

Recent climate modelling suggests that many grounding lines are not yet in runaway retreat – but some regions of Antarctica are close enough to thresholds that tiny increases in basal melting push model runs toward very different outcomes. 

Whether – and to what extent – grounding lines might retreat will depend on a wide range of factors, including the exact shape of the bedrock beneath the ice. However, the bedrock on the coast of Antarctica has not yet been precisely mapped in many places.

Ice shelves

Once Antarctic ice detaches from the seabed, it floats on the ocean surface. These floating ice shelves slow the flow of ice from land towards the sea, acting as a brake as they wedge between headlands and little hills on the seafloor.

If these ice shelves break apart, the flow of glaciers towards the sea can accelerate.

The image below on the left shows a present-day ice shelf that is pinned in place by bedrock, which slows the flow of the ice into the sea.

The image on the right shows a future scenario in which ocean water continues to intrude under the ice, accelerating basal melting on the underside of the floating ice until it completely detaches from the “pinning point” that had previously held it in place.

In this scenario, the bedrock is no longer acting as a break on glaciers pushing to the sea and the ice shelf starts flowing into the sea more quickly and begins breaking up. Ice masses inland then begin to push more rapidly towards the sea.

Illustration of an Antarctic ice shelf. On the left, the ice is being held in place by a “pinning point” – a bump in the bedrock which temporarily acts as an anchor.
Illustration of an Antarctic ice shelf. On the left, the ice is being held in place by a “pinning point” – a bump in the bedrock which temporarily acts as an anchor. On the right, the ice shelf has detached from the pinning point, meaning that both the ice shelf and the masses of ice piled up behind it start flowing into the sea more rapidly. Credit: Freya Sykes, iC3.

This dynamic was directly observed during the collapse of the Larsen-B ice shelf on the Antarctic Peninsula in 2002, which led to accelerated glacial ice flow and is believed to have contributed to a dramatic glacial retreat two decades later.

However, the factors affecting the stability of the floating ice shelves around Antarctica’s coast are complex. The strength of ice shelves depends on their thickness, how and where they are pinned to the seafloor, how cracks grow, as well as air and sea temperatures and levels of snow and rainfall. For example, meltwater at the surface can lever cracks further apart, in a process known as hydrofracturing

A 2024 review of the stability of ice shelves found big gaps in scientific understanding of these processes. There is currently no scientific consensus on how rapidly various ice shelves might collapse – the pace is likely to vary greatly from one ice shelf to the next.

Ice-cliff collapse

If, and when, ice shelves collapse and drift away from the coast, they will expose the towering ice cliffs that loom behind them directly to the sea. These ice cliffs can be more than 100 metres tall.

This exposure could potentially lead to those cliffs to become structurally unstable and collapse in a runaway process – further accelerating the advance of the glaciers pushing towards the sea. 

The images below illustrate how such a collapse might unfold. In the top image, a floating ice shelf buttresses the ice masses behind it. In the middle image, the ice shelf has largely broken apart and melted into the sea. In the bottom image, the ice shelf has completely disappeared, leaving a steep wall of ice towering over the sea. At this point, the exposed cliffs might collapse and crash into the water below.

Progressive disintegration of ice shelves over time (top and middle) may leave ice cliffs exposed
Progressive disintegration of ice shelves over time (top and middle) may leave ice cliffs exposed (bottom image). These tall cliffs might collapse and fall directly into the sea. Image credit: Freya Sykes, iC3.

Researchers are still debating whether or not this “marine ice cliff instability” is likely to happen this century.

Modelling ocean dynamics

The speed at which grounding lines retreat, ice shelves collapse and ice cliffs cascade into the sea partially depends on complex ocean dynamics.

The temperature and speed of water intrusion underneath the ice depends on multiple factors, including ocean currents, winds, sea ice, underwater ridges and eddies. These factors vary from one location to the next and can vary by season and by year

Once water reaches a given cavity, the ways in which turbulent flows and fresh meltwater plumes meet the ice can significantly affect melt levels – further complicating the picture.

In other words, predicting future melt depends on models that integrate macro-level ocean circulation with local-level turbulence. This remains a major modelling challenge that, despite ongoing progress, is unlikely to be conclusively resolved any time soon. 

Planning for future sea level rise

Scientists agree that human-caused climate change is causing sea levels to rise and that the oceans will continue to rise during the current century and far beyond.

However, the combination of the complexity of modelling ice-ocean interactions and the threat of potential runaway processes means that, for the foreseeable future, there is considerable uncertainty about the magnitude of future sea level rise.

(While this article focuses on Antarctica, it is worth noting that Greenland’s contribution to future sea level rise is also highly uncertain.)

To complicate matters further, the ocean does not rise like water in a bathtub, creeping up equally on all sides. Instead the Earth’s surface is highly dynamic.

For example, during the last ice age, the immense mass of the glaciers that covered much of northern Europe pressed the Earth’s surface downwards. Even though most of that ice disappeared millennia ago, much of Scandinavia is still rebounding today, causing the land to rise gradually. 

In contrast, the city of Jakarta in Indonesia is sinking at a rapid pace of 10cm per year due to sprawling urbanisation and extraction of groundwater for household and industrial uses. That rate may increase or decrease over the coming decades, depending on urban planning and water management decisions. 

This mix of natural and human-driven factors means that, even if researchers could perfectly predict average global sea level rise, calculating how much the sea will rise in any given location will remain challenging. 

Another key unknown is around future levels of human-caused greenhouse gas emissions which drive climate change

The scientific community is working to better understand the dynamics driving sea level rise and improve predictions, including through Antarctic sea bed mapping, field observations and improved models. Those advances in knowledge will not erase uncertainty, but they could reduce the range of possible outcomes. 

Nevertheless, while that range may narrow, it will not completely disappear.

Plans drawn up by policymakers and engineers to prepare society for future sea level rise should never be based on a single point estimate.

Instead, they should take into account a range of possible “likely” outcomes – and include contingency plans for less likely, but entirely possible, scenarios in which the oceans rise far faster than currently expected.

The post Guest post: The challenges in projecting future global sea levels appeared first on Carbon Brief.

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UK halves Green Climate Fund contribution, as it spends more on security

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The British government has notified the UN’s Green Climate Fund (GCF) that it will cut the contribution it pledged for 2024-2027 in half, a GCF spokesperson told Climate Home News.

The reduction, which is part of a wider UK shift from development aid to military spending, will restrict the GCF’s ability to fund projects that help developing countries cut emissions and adapt to climate change.

Harjeet Singh, director of the Satat Sampada Climate Foundation, called the UK’s decision “moral bankruptcy”, noting that Britain has a historical responsibility for climate change “as a nation built on fossil-fuelled industrialisation”.

    Liane Schalatek, who observes GCF board meetings for the Heinrich Böll Foundation, said the UK’s move was “an unfortunate signal”, especially as it comes just before the GCF launches its next fundraising round.

    She noted that the UK has been the biggest contributor to the GCF, and “with the UK halving – where doubling would be needed – this will give permission to others to do the same”.

    There are fears that other countries could follow suit as governments in Europe trim their aid budgets, while the US has refused to deliver any further money under climate change-sceptic President Donald Trump and has also given up its seat on the GCF board.

    The GCF was established in 2010, and has since funded over $15 billion of climate projects across the developing world. Its financing comes mainly from developed countries pledging money in regular replenishment rounds.

    During the last GCF replenishment round in 2023, the UK’s previous Conservative government promised £1.622 billion ($2.18 billion) for the 2024-27 period, with then development minister Andrew Mitchell saying the pledge “underlines our sustained commitment to tackling climate change”.

    But, as of March 2026, the UK had only handed over £655 million ($885 million) of that pledge, which is its third to the fund, and has now informed the GCF it will only deliver £815 million ($1.1 billion). The GCF’s total funding for the 2024-2027 period is $10.149 billion.

    The UK’s Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office has been contacted for comment.

    Approved projects unaffected

    A GCF spokesperson told Climate Home News that all current projects under implementation have guaranteed funding while the GCF is assessing what the cuts mean for the projects that are being prepared and are expected to come before the GCF board in 2026 and 2027.

    “Our focus will continue to be delivering the greatest impact with the investments we make, working with the largest network of partners in the financial architecture and mobilizing the greatest amount of resources to fulfill GCF’s critical and unique mandate,” the spokesperson said.

    Scientists warn El Niño could intensify climate extremes in 2026

    In a separate email to GCF board members, seen by Climate Home News, the GCF’s executive director Mafalda Duarte warned that the cuts are “expected to have a material impact” on the fund’s work over the next two years.

    Duarte said the cuts were part of the UK wider decision to reduce international development spending “and invest more in addressing growing security threats”.

    Development to military

    Announcing this decision in March, UK foreign minister Yvette Cooper said the cuts were a “hugely difficult decision” and “not ideological”, but necessary “to deliver the biggest increase in defence spending since the Cold War”. The US has been pressuring countries in the NATO alliance to boost military budgets as conflict surges around the world, from Ukraine to the Middle East.

    Cooper reiterated Labour’s commitment to restore overseas development spending to 0.7% of gross national income (GNI) “when fiscal circumstances allow”, but did not provide a timeline when pressed by an opposition member of parliament. UK aid was reduced from 0.7% to 0.5% of GNI by the previous Conservative government in 2021, and is now set to fall further to 0.3%.

    While the UK government has claimed it is only cutting international climate finance by around 13% compared to the previous government’s level of spending, analysis by Carbon Brief suggests that the real figure is close to 50% once inflation and accounting changes are considered.

    The leadership of the UK is currently in doubt with several ministers from the ruling Labour Party calling on Prime Minister Keir Starmer to resign, with a challenge to his leadership of the party and country expected after poor local election results for Labour.

    The post UK halves Green Climate Fund contribution, as it spends more on security appeared first on Climate Home News.

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    Webinar: From Santa Marta to Bonn – where next for the fossil fuel transition?

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    The Santa Marta summit moved beyond the blockages in the UN climate process, building a coalition of around 60 countries that want to tackle a shift away from fossil fuels. The host countries said the outcomes would feed into the voluntary roadmap on the energy transition being put together by COP30 hosts Brazil, which is due to be presented before COP31.

    June’s mid-year climate talks in Bonn, followed by London Climate Action Week, will be key moments to reflect on the progress so far and work out ways to bring the strands closer together. How might that happen while fossil fuels remain the elephant in the UNFCCC room and there’s no formal place for a roadmap on the agenda?

    Tune in to hear our expert reporters discussing this and other key topics set to headline at the Bonn session, both in the negotiations and on the sidelines! Questions and comments will be welcome from participants and used to inform our future coverage.

    Note: This event is exclusively for free essential users and paid subscribers of Climate Home News. If you’re not yet signed up, you can join us by clicking the “Subscribe Now” button.

    The post Webinar: From Santa Marta to Bonn – where next for the fossil fuel transition? appeared first on Climate Home News.

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    China Briefing 30 April 2026: Fossil fuel ‘strict controls’ | El Niño approaches | Why cleantech exports have surged

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    Welcome to Carbon Brief’s China Briefing.

    China Briefing handpicks and explains the most important climate and energy stories from China over the past fortnight. Subscribe for free here.

    Key developments

    New documents ramp up pressure on coal

    ‘STRICTLY CONTROL’ FOSSIL FUELS: On 22 April, China issued a set of “guiding opinions” on energy conservation and carbon reduction that urged local governments to “strictly control fossil-fuel consumption”, according to the text published by state news agency Xinhua. Hu Min, director and co-founder of the the Beijing-based Institute for Global Decarbonization Progress, said in comments to Carbon Brief that the document was a clear signal of China’s political leaders’ desire to reduce the country’s coal usage and a “way to move things forward” until more specific policies are published. Government officials noted that the opinions are of “great significance for building broader and stronger consensus across society”, reported information platform Tanpaifang.

    INCREASED OVERSIGHT: The next day, the government announced new evaluation criteria for judging provinces on their efforts to meet China’s climate goals, including on raising “clean-energy consumption” and limiting “use of coal and oil”, reported Bloomberg. The 14 indicators underscore China’s “key priorities” and encourage broader carbon reduction efforts, said energy news outlet China Energy Net. They build on China’s existing inspection system to create a “much stronger accountability and compliance system”, Qin Qi, China analyst at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, told Carbon Brief. For more detail see Carbon Brief’s Q&A on what the two policies mean for China’s energy transition.

    ‘RARE’ SIGNAL: Both documents were issued by the highest levels of the nation’s political system, which is “extremely rare” and “reflects the strategic importance” of China’s climate goals, Wu Hongjie, deputy secretary-general of the China Carbon Neutrality 50 Forum, told Jiemian News. In a comment article for finance news outlet Caixin, Chen Lihao – a member of the Jiusan Society, environment minister Huang’s political party – said the two documents “form the institutional foundation” for China’s “full-scale transition” to a “dual control of carbon” system.

    Downpours in south China 

    ‘RECORD-BREAKING’ RAIN: Heavy rainfall is hitting central and southern China, with Hunan, Guizhou and Jiangxi provinces reporting record-breaking levels of precipitation last week, reported the Communist party-affiliated People’s Daily. It added that the government is ramping up “flood control” measures in response. On 26-27 April, one part of Guangxi province received as much as 14cm of rain per hour, reported the state-supporting newspaper Global Times. Meanwhile, Chinese vice-premier Liu Guozhong met with the World Meteorological Organization secretary-general Celeste Saulo to discuss cooperation on global “meteorological governance”, said state news agency Xinhua, with the discussion touching on early warning systems and disaster relief.

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    EL NIÑO RISK: Officials at China’s National Climate Center (NCC) have said that an El Niño weather pattern is “likely to set in around May” and “intensify during the summer and autumn”, said China Daily. The state-run newspaper also quoted NCC chief forecaster Chen Lijuan saying it was “premature” to conclude that the El Niño could be at its strongest in 140 years, or that it could lead to record-breaking heat, although he added that the risks of such weather are “clearly increasing”. Wang Yaqi, a senior engineer at NCC, noted that the phenomenon “could hit hydropower-dependent regions hard, pushing them to burn more fossil fuels”, according to the Hong Kong-based South China Morning Post.

    Solar capacity growth slows

    CLEAN CAPACITY: China’s clean-energy grid capacity now exceeds 2,400 gigawatts (GW), as of March 2026, or 60% of the total power mix, said state broadcaster CGTN in coverage of comments from energy officials at a press conference. It added that, within this, total wind and solar capacity reached 1,900GW. Energy news outlet International Energy Net cited the officials saying that China’s operational capacity for “green hydrogen” stands at 250,000 tonnes, with another 900,000 tonnes under construction.

    SOLAR SLOWS: However, a data release showed that China added 41GW of new solar capacity in the first three months of 2026, reported BJX News, down from 60GW of new capacity in January-March 2025. Bloomberg noted that new solar capacity additions “slowed sharply to hit a four-year low” in March, adding that wind and thermal capacity growth also both slowed.

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    ‘MOST AMBITIOUS GOAL’: In a separate press conference, Chinese officials confirmed to Bloomberg that a pledge in the 15th five-year plan to double “non-fossil energy” in 10 years referred to energy capacity – not generation or consumption – and would run from 2025-2035. These details were “unclear” in the five-year plan itself, the outlet added. The economic news outlet Economic Daily said that the doubling goal was “one of the most ambitious goals in China’s energy transition history”, adding that “accelerating” the energy transition would allow the country to both reduce its reliance on the international energy market and “seize the high ground in the global race” to develop low-carbon industries.

    More China news

    • NEW BLEND: China has begun a project to blend gas supplies with 10% hydrogen in a part of Shandong province, reported the South China Morning Post, which added that the shift could cut China’s annual carbon emissions by “roughly 30m tonnes”.
    • SKY-HIGH: China launched a “high-precision” satellite to monitor greenhouse gas emissions, said Xinhua.
    • SUNNY SPAIN: Chinese automaker SAIC plans to build an electric vehicle (EV) factory in Spain, reported Bloomberg.
    • MING YANG: Bloomberg also said that wind turbine maker Ming Yang is considering Spain after plans for a factory in the UK were blocked. 
    • FORMAL COMPLAINT: China has “formally submitted a complaint” to the EU about its Industrial Accelerator Act, said China Daily.
    • EU TARIFFS: China’s commerce minister said he reached a “soft landing” with EU officials on EU tariffs on imports of Chinese-made EVs, according to Reuters.

    Spotlight 

    How war, silver and taxes propelled China’s cleantech exports

    China’s export of clean-energy technologies surged in March, driven by a doubling in solar shipments, according to analysis by Carbon Brief of Chinese customs data.

    The spike can be explained in part by the impact of the conflict in the Middle East, but analysts argue that a newly enacted solar export policy is also behind the figures.

    In this issue, Carbon Brief explores the factors behind the export spike and whether or not it will be sustained.

    China’s exports of the “new three” clean-energy technology surged by 70% year-on-year in March 2026, reaching $21.6bn, according to Carbon Brief analysis.

    Exports of the three technologies – solar cells and panels, electric vehicles (EVs) and lithium-ion batteries – were also up 37% from February, the month before the Iran war.

    The conflict in the Middle East is one explanation for the surge, as it has caused several countries to emphasise the need to increase non-fossil energy supplies.

    However, there are also other important drivers, revealed by Carbon Brief analysis of customs data showing differences in exports between solar, EVs and batteries.

    Solar exports were notably higher in March 2026 than in the previous two months, jumping 99.2% compared to February.

    By contrast, neither batteries’ nor EVs’ March figures came close to the surge in solar cells.

    China’s March exports of batteries rose 37% compared with the previous month, while month-on-month EV shipments increased just 1.4%.

    (Figures from the China Passenger Car Association suggest a larger rise in percentage terms, but this is based on a narrower scope that does not capture all exports.)

    This may be because both technologies saw strong export performance throughout the first quarter of 2026. According to the customs data, more than one million EVs were exported from China between January and March, up 73% compared with the same period last year.

    These quarterly exports may have helped meet growing interest in EVs due to the conflict, with BloombergNEF estimating that sales of EVs rose to 1.1m – up 2% year-on-year – in March. (Bloomberg said, within this total, sales “cooled” in China and the US but “surged” in Europe and parts of Asia.)

    Solar surge

    The chart below shows the export volumes of solar cells, EVs and batteries in March 2025, plus the first three months of 2026.

    March’s solar exports were capable of generating 68 gigawatts (GW), equivalent to Spain’s entire installed solar capacity, according to energy thinktank Ember.

    Exports of solar cells, EVs and batteries in March 2025 and January-March 2026.
    Exports of solar cells, EVs and batteries in March 2025 and January-March 2026. “Electric vehicles” includes hybrid and battery electric buses with 10 seats or more; plug-in and non-plug-in hybrid electric passenger cars; and battery electric passenger cars. Source: General Administration of Customs China.

    The Ember analysis showed that 50 countries set all-time records for Chinese solar imports in March, with another 60 reaching their highest levels in six months.

    Exports to Asia doubled to 39GW, while shipments to Africa surged 176% to 10GW. Combined, these two regions accounted for three-quarters of the overall increase in exports.

    The Middle East conflict has boosted demand, but a domestic policy deadline was a more immediate driver, analysts told Carbon Brief.

    The Chinese government removed export tax rebates for solar products on 1 April, prompting manufacturers to rush out shipments before the change took effect.

    Qin Qi, China analyst at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, told Carbon Brief that such policy deadlines “can create a very sharp one-month jump in shipments”.

    Batteries and EVs currently continue to receive export rebates.

    Falling silver prices are another potential factor, as silver paste is used to make a key component in solar panels. The reversal of a recent price rally that had raised costs helped manufacturers make more panels ahead of the export switch, Marius Mordal Bakke, head of solar research at consultancy Rystad Energy told Reuters.

    Temporary spike

    Analysts predict that China’s April solar exports are unlikely to repeat March’s surge. Moreover, February exports were depressed by the Chinese New Year public holiday, making the March comparison unusually unfavourable.

    “A month-on-month drop in April would not be surprising,” said Qin.

    But she remains optimistic that global solar capacity additions outside China will continue to grow in 2026 due to energy supply concerns sparked by the Middle East conflict.

    Dave Jones, chief analyst at Ember, said the removal of the export rebate will not “dramatically change demand”, especially as the conflict continues.

    He argued that the policy could be positive, telling Carbon Brief: “This is what the global market needs: a more level playing field with China.”

    This spotlight is by freelance China analyst Lekai Liu for Carbon Brief.

    Watch, read, listen

    TARGET ‘DIFFICULTIES’: Two researchers at the Energy Research Institute, a state thinktank, wrote in Economic Daily that China faces several “difficulties” in meeting its new carbon-intensity targets, including already-high renewable capacity installations and high levels of energy efficiency.

    COMPARE AND CONTRAST: The US-China Podcast interviewed Prof Alex Wang on China’s approach to environmentalism and his view on the country’s energy transition.

    GOVERNMENT CALLOUT: State broadcaster CCTV published a segment critiquing the massive investments and special treatment that local governments gave to their EV industries, fuelling intense competition.

    ‘THIN ARGUMENT’: A comment in Lawfare argued that the US should focus more on the “genuine geopolitical risks of climate change and [geoengineering] development”, rather than “thin” arguments around China weaponising weather modification technologies.


    22.6%

    The rate of “environmental health literacy” – or “recognition of the value of the ecological environment and its impact on health” – among China’s citizens, according to a government survey covered by Xinhua.


    New science 

    • China will need to build more pipelines and push its carbon price above $100/tonne to make “green” ammonia a cost-competitive option for marine fuel | One Earth
    • Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from China’s lakes increased from 41m tonnes to 51m tonnes of CO2 per year between 2000 and 2021, coinciding with “rapid lake expansion” across the country | Science Advances

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    China Briefing is written by Anika Patel, with contributions from Lekai Liu, and edited by Simon Evans. Please send tips and feedback to china@carbonbrief.org 

    The post China Briefing 30 April 2026: Fossil fuel ‘strict controls’ | El Niño approaches | Why cleantech exports have surged appeared first on Carbon Brief.

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