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Key developments

China’s next ‘five-year plan’

NEW PLAN: The Chinese Communist party held its fourth plenum meeting, reported the Guardian, which described it as a “key meeting in the country’s political cycle and a crucial one in the development of its 15th ‘five-year plan’”. China’s “five-year plans” serve as blueprints guiding the country’s economic and social development. The 15th one runs from 2026-30. While the plan will not be released until next year, the full text of the official “adopting recommendations” said a “main target” will be making “major new progress in building a beautiful China”. This includes a “green production and lifestyle to be basically established [and] the carbon-peak target [for 2030] to be achieved as scheduled”, according to the text. 

TECHNOLOGY AND ‘INVOLUTION’: The Guardian’s report highlighted the “recommendations” for technology investments and a “crackdown on ‘involution’” – a reference to “fierce internal competition” that has, in the past, led to oversupply. In a “15th ‘five-year plan’ explanation” speech, Chinese president Xi Jinping said “it should be noted that the development of new quality productive forces”, which largely relies on technology, requires “full consideration of practical feasibility”, according to the transcript published by state news agency Xinhua. He also called on local officials to avoid a “rush” to develop projects, when talking about using technological innovation for “promoting a comprehensive green transformation”. 

‘GREEN’ TRANSITION: At a post-meeting press conference, Zheng Shanjie, head of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), said the “comprehensive realisation of green transformation” requires the construction and implementation of the “dual control of carbon” system and the “green and low-carbon” transition of energy, as well as “industrial structure” and “production and lifestyle”. The National Energy Administration (NEA) also pledged to “focus on” building a “clean, low-carbon, safe and efficient new energy system” at a separate meeting, reported industry news outlet BJX News. Belinda Schäpe, China policy analyst from the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), commented on LinkedIn that the commitment to build the “dual control of carbon” was “expected”. She added that the “reaffirmation” of renewable expansion was an “important signal given the uncertainty of the sector’s future after the policy pricing reform” came into force earlier this year. 

EXPERT REACTION: Schäpe called the mention of “[promoting the] peaking [of] coal and oil consumption” an “important signal”, as this is the first time “such language appears in a top-level planning document”. The oil-peak target “aligns with international expectations” and the “references to ‘clean and efficient use’ and ‘orderly replacement’ suggest a managed transformation of coal’s role – focusing on retrofits, flexibility and system support rather than new capacity growth”, she added. This suggestion of a peaking for coal and oil “allows” coal consumption to “increase in the early years of the five-year period”, according to a LinkedIn post by Lauri Myllyvirta, lead analyst from CREA. He said the peaking suggestion, although “in line with the goal of peaking [carbon dioxide] CO2 emissions before 2030”, provides “no guarantees of achieving a [CO2] reduction from 2025 to 2030, let alone starting from 2025”. The “most important question” for the next “five-year plan”, he added, is “whether China is committed to honouring the 2021 commitments: reducing carbon intensity by 65% from 2005 to 2030 and ‘gradually reducing coal consumption’” over the next five years. 

Pre-COP30 report

CLIMATE REPORT: The Chinese Ministry of Ecology and Environment (MEE) released an annual report on “China’s policies and actions on climate change 2025” ahead of COP30, reported the Chinese media outlet 21st Century Business Herald. The newspaper quoted Xia Yingxian, director of the MEE’s department of climate change, saying the report “showcased” China’s “significant contributions to mitigation, adaptation, carbon markets, carbon footprint, climate policies and regulations and leading global climate governance”. 

GLOBAL COOPERATION: The Paper, a Shanghai-based media outlet, reported that Xia said China “follows through” on its global climate cooperation commitments. Speaking about the 10th anniversary of the Paris Agreement, Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi said climate change has become an “urgent issue” and – in an apparent reference to the US – added that no country can “be a deserter”, according to a video posted by China News. Vice premier Ding Xuexiang also “said that China stands ready to work with all parties to advance global green development”, reported Xinhua. China’s stance on global climate cooperation was reiterated at a G20 environmental meeting in South Africa, according to International Energy Net. 

China-EU climate cooperation

FINANCE: The 21st Century Business Herald wrote that the MEE’s report indicated COP30 should make “positive progress” in meeting the financial targets agreed at COP29 – the “aspirational” target of $1.3tn a year and at least $300bn of climate finance a year by 2035. Xia said the $300bn pledge did not “fully reflect” the “capital contribution obligations of developed countries”, added the outlet. Meanwhile, the EU’s climate chief Wopke Hoekstra asked China to boost its climate-finance offering, reported European news website Euractiv. He said “China is an upper middle income country” and “Europe just simply does not have the pockets” to provide all the needed climate finance “by itself”, according to the outlet. 

CLIMATE TIES: In a press release following a recent meeting between Chinese premier Li Qiang and European Council president António Costa, Costa was quoted saying that “climate action has to remain [at the] top of our agendas” and that COP30 will “offer an opportunity for the EU and China to lead with ambition in order to achieve a successful outcome”. The Hong Kong-based South China Morning Post said Li also expressed Beijing’s willingness to work with the EU on matters including “the environment”. Costa added that “I shared my strong concern about China’s expanding export controls on critical raw materials”, urging Li to “restore as soon as possible fluid, reliable and predictable supply chains”, according to the press release. 

EXPORT CONTROLS: The trade dispute over China’s supply of rare earths was “settled” during a meeting between US president Donald Trump and his counterpart Xi in South Korea earlier today, reported the Guardian. Reuters said China agreed to delay the introduction of the next round of export controls, but that earlier restrictions on critical minerals will remain. The rare-earth minerals “play tiny, but vital roles” in products such as cars, planes and weapons, the newswire added. The US will also lower tariffs on some Chinese imports, according to ABC News.

More wind, less coal

COAL DECLINE: Official data showed that China’s thermal power generation – mainly from coal – dropped 5.4% in September, reported Bloomberg. Meanwhile, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is consulting on its new steel capacity “swap” policy that aims to “promote market supply and demand balance”. Reuters said this was a “more stringent” swapping plan than the previous one that has been paused for 14 months. Shen Xinyi, researcher from CREA, explained on LinkedIn that the new programme “raises the replacement ratio to 1.5:1 nationwide” and encourages cross-regional swaps. She added the measures “signal a deeper shift: from expansion control to structural optimisation and decarbonisation”, calling it a “strategic move to restructure and rebalance China’s steel landscape”.

MORE WIND: A new industry proposal, the “Beijing Declaration on Wind Energy 2.0”, put forward a goal for the country’s wind capacity to reach “1.3 terawatts (TW) by 2030, at least 2TW by 2035 and a staggering 5TW by 2060”, said state-run newspaper China Daily. The outlet called the new plan a “significant increase” from an earlier declaration, which had targeted 3TW by 2060. The same group of wind-industry players are “lobbying the government to install at least 120 gigawatts (GW) of wind-power capacity in each of the next five years, an acceleration of the country’s energy transition that would more than double output by the end of the decade”, reported Bloomberg. The official goal is to install 3.6TW of capacity for wind and solar power combined by 2035, added the outlet.

OVERSEAS EXPANSION: After two years of talk with the UK government, Chinese wind turbine manufacturer Ming Yang announced that it wants to build a £1.5bn project in Scotland, said BBC News. European governments, however, were “increasingly wary of Chinese companies’ involvement” in offshore wind, which is a “cornerstone of northern Europe’s clean-energy strategy”, reported Reuters. Exports of China’s other renewable energy products, namely, the “new three” – lithium-ion batteries, solar cells and electric vehicles (EVs) – rose nearly 40% year-on-year in September, according to official data, reported financial outlet Caixin. Separately, China “sent a clear signal that it is willing to pull the plug on subsidies” for the EV industry, said Reuters.

Spotlight

Q&A: How China is developing ‘vehicle-to-grid’ to strengthen its electricity system

China’s surging electric vehicles (EVs) ownership – now exceeding 25.5m – is opening the door to a new technology that turns EVs into “power banks” to help with the flexibility of electricity supply.

Carbon Brief looks into the technology, known as “vehicle-to-grid” (V2G), and explains how it has sparked interest in China. The full article is available on Carbon Brief’s website.

How can V2G help balance the grid?

In China, EVs with bidirectional batteries, when plugged into V2G-capable charging stations, are able to sell their stored electricity back to the grid in nine “pilot cities”, including Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen.

Dr Muyi Yang, senior electricity analyst at thinktank Ember, told Carbon Brief that a fleet of grid-connected EVs could help China achieve its broader plan to restructure its power sector towards a “new power system” that aims to be more flexible and responsive to power volatility.

Zhou Xiaohang, China clean-power project manager at the US-registered Natural Resource Defense Council in Beijing, told Carbon Brief that, in the long run, V2G can help to address the curtailment issue for renewable energy, which is often referred to as the “Xiaona” problem in China.

What is the current state of V2G adoption?

Currently, V2G has not been widely deployed in China. The cost of V2G infrastructure installation remains high.

Zhou said the success of large-scale roll out of V2G depends on whether there are enough EVs equipped with the bidirectional batteries and able to be plugged into V2G-capable charging stations.

China “already [has] enough EVs on the road to make [V2G] possible”, she added.

Meanwhile, popular car brands such as BYD and Nio have released new EV models with V2G features and many more are actively testing and preparing for two-way electric charging.

There are 30 demonstration projects going on at the moment. Shenzhen, for example, received more than 70,000 kilowatt hours (kWh) of electricity from about 2,500 EVs in June.

Regional governments have also been working to introduce more profitable pricing systems to boost user participation.

Guangdong province, in south China, launched a V2G pricing plan that is “appealing” enough for EV owners to see a profit from participating in the scheme, according to Zhou.

What are the challenges in expansion?

A large share of China’s electricity is still traded through long-term power contracts, which could limit incentives for individual EV owners to engage in power-trading.

Shen Xinyi, researcher at Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), told Carbon Brief:

“Flexible systems like V2G and distributed solar power need a well-developed spot market and experienced, professional players such as power retailers to truly thrive.”

Zhou said whether V2G can be rolled out at scale also depends on the attitudes of consumers.

Chinese media outlet the Paper reported that people had expressed concerns on battery health and safety issues, including whether frequent discharges could cause battery degradation.

In April 2024, Hui Dong, chief technical expert at the China Electric Power Research Institute, a research institute affiliated to the State Grid Corporation of China, stated that, in terms of lifespan, chemical energy storage systems, represented by lithium-ion batteries, are still “underperforming”.

Watch, read, listen

CARBON REDUCTION: Prof Jiang Yi, director of building energy research centre at Tsinghua University, explained how to “reduce carbon” on both “the side of production” and “the side of consumption” in an interview with financial outlet Yicai.

INDONESIA’S JOURNEY: The China Global South Project aired a podcast on China’s role in “Indonesia’s push for clean energy and more coal”.

CLIMATE STATEMENTS: China Daily published a list of climate statements from prominent Chinese politicians and researchers, including Liu Zhenmin, China special envoy for climate change.

ENERGY CHALLENAGES: In a long interview with 21st Century Business Herald, Energy Foundation China president Zou Ji said “grid integration challenges” are the most “immediate obstacle” to China’s clean-energy buildout.

5tn

The growth in “added value” – a component of economic output – of China’s “green industries” from 2020-25, in Chinese yuan ($700bn), according to 21st Century Business Herald. The newspaper quoted Ren Yong, chief engineer at the Ministry of Ecology and Environment, saying that the “added value of green and low-carbon sectors in key industries” accounted for 8.3% of GDP in 2020 and is expected to rise to 11.7% in 2025, according to the newspaper. [Previous analysis for Carbon Brief found clean-energy industries accounted for 10% of China’s GDP in 2024.]

New science

Integrating scientific data, local knowledge and expert knowledge to assess climate vulnerability in fisheries

Ecology and Society

New research examined different approaches to assessing the vulnerability of fisheries to climate impacts, finding that using a data-driven approach can result in differing vulnerability than using a “knowledge-driven” one. The authors wrote that their results underline the “importance of engaging local knowledge to validate findings and provide contextualised interpretations for more effective management strategies”.

Mechanisms behind the rapid rise of extreme heat discomfort days in south China

Npj climate and atmospheric science

The number and strength of extreme heat discomfort days in south China has undergone a “sharp rise” since 2000, according to a new study. Researchers used observational weather data and a machine-learning model to determine the atmospheric circulation patterns that cause the extreme events. They found that an area of high pressure over the Pacific Ocean weakened the summer monsoon winds.

China Briefing is compiled by Wanyuan Song and Anika Patel. It is edited by Wanyuan Song and Dr Simon Evans. Please send tips and feedback to china@carbonbrief.org

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The post China Briefing 30 October 2025: 15th ‘five-year plan’ priorities; 2035 wind goal; ‘Vehicle-to-grid’ tech  appeared first on Carbon Brief.

China Briefing 30 October 2025: 15th ‘five-year plan’ priorities; 2035 wind goal; ‘Vehicle-to-grid’ tech 

There are opportunities for local progress on climate, even when the federal government abdicates its role.

By Dan Gearino

There is a long-running debate over the relative weights of individual and government responsibility in limiting the effects of climate change.

A Home Energy Fair Offers a Counter Narrative to Cynicism About Climate Change

For years, fisherman Sami Uddin lived and worked on a small patch of coastal land in southeastern Bangladesh – until the site was earmarked for development including a new cyclone-resistant deep-sea port, funded by Japan in the name of climate change adaptation.

“The development is [meant to help us] all, but the reality is that it takes our homes, professions, and they are forcing us to be evicted from our village,” Uddin, 51, said close to the port site in Matarbari, adding that new fishing restrictions nearby have fuelled local people’s anger.

The deep-sea port – being built next door to a new coal-fired power plant, also financed by Japan – is a centrepiece of Bangladesh’s ambitions to develop a “Singapore-style” economic hub on its climate-vulnerable Bay of Bengal coastline, a low-lying belt of densely populated land, prone to deadly tropical cyclones and flooding.

Funded with a $726-million concessional loan, half of which was counted by Japan as climate adaptation finance, the port marks the biggest single climate adaptation project being funded by a wealthy country in 2023, according to an analysis by Climate Home News of the latest data compiled by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).

But like other foreign-funded projects classed as “climate adaptation”, Climate Home’s reporting raises questions about whether the port investment will help climate-vulnerable local communities cope with the effects of more extreme weather and rising seas.

Japan’s development agency said the resilience measures to protect the port are crucial to preventing economic shocks and the disruption of essential services in case of disasters, while some interventions could also keep local people safer when storms hit.

COP30 president warns of ‘dystopian scenario’

Climate adaptation is set to be a key theme at next month’s COP30 UN climate summit in Brazil, and calls are growing for rich nations to increase their support for projects to help developing countries that are bearing the brunt of worsening climate impacts.

COP30 president André Aranha Corrêa do Lago said last week that the UN talks should take concrete steps to help vulnerable people adapt to a warming world and avoid a “dystopian scenario” in which only the rich can afford to protect themselves from climate threats.

But with just a fraction of needs for adaptation funding currently being met, according to the latest UN estimates, climate campaigners told Climate Home News that mega-projects like Matarbari are not the best way to protect the world’s poorest people from climate change.

They are also sounding the alarm about how a lack of uniform reporting rules and poor transparency in the data give countries free rein over what they label as adaptation finance.

Some donors “cheat” by focusing more on inflating numbers than on delivering real impact, said John Nordbo, senior climate advisor at NGO CARE Denmark and co-author of the annual “Climate Finance Shadow Report”.

“They label large projects with little or no adaptation component as ‘climate finance’,” he told Climate Home News. “It’s misleading – and when exposed, it undermines trust in the entire global climate regime.”

The $363 million provided by Japan for the Matarbari port was counted as adaptation finance under official data used to measure whether donors are meeting their promises on climate finance made at UN talks. It accounted for an estimated 15% of Japan’s total contributions to climate adaptation in 2023 – the latest year for which data is available.

“No one must be left behind”

When, at COP26, Japan committed to doubling its assistance for adaptation to $14.8 billion in public and private finance by 2025, its then Prime Minister Fumio Kishida told fellow world leaders “no one must be left behind as we confront the issue of climate change”. He added that investments would focus on disaster risk reduction.

Japan said the delivery of that pledge was “on track” in its latest assessment report for the UN earlier this year.

But Climate Home’s analysis of the data from the OECD – the main body tracking global climate finance flows from industrialised nations – found that in 2023 Tokyo channelled at least a third of its bilateral adaptation finance into large-scale infrastructure projects and broad health programmes that lacked clear climate adaptation objectives.

It counted loans worth hundreds of millions of dollars for the construction of mass rapid transit in Jakarta and the rollout of universal health coverage in Egypt as adaptation finance, for example. It offered no explanation in project documents of how either initiative would strengthen resilience to climate impacts.

It also reported a $200-million grant to the global vaccine alliance, Gavi, to support its COVID-19 response as having “significant” relevance for climate adaptation. In an assessment of Gavi in 2024, the Multilateral Performance Network described as a “serious challenge” the fact that addressing climate change was not yet a core objective within the alliance’s strategy.

Md Shamsuddoha, a former climate negotiator for Bangladesh who now leads the Center for Participatory Research and Development, said Japan repackages “pure investment projects” for infrastructure development as climate finance to show it is meeting its commitments made under the UN climate regime.

“Japan should not do this, because that is no climate finance at all,” Shamsuddoha added.

Japan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs and its overseas aid arm, the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA), were approached for comment on the adaptation relevance of these projects, but had not responded by the time of publication.

Roadbuilding and energy projects

Climate Home’s analysis found Japan was not alone among major donors in labelling funds for large transport and energy infrastructure projects, or broad health programmes, as bilateral climate adaptation finance, which tends to be provided in grant form or as highly concessional lending to the poorest nations.

France and South Korea have used a similar approach, according to our analysis of the data from the OECD.

The three countries’ bilateral funding for those projects totalled at least $4 billion in 2023, but South Korea and France do not disclose the exact portion they have counted as climate adaptation finance.

According to the OECD data, France described loans provided for energy projects in developing countries as having a primary objective of adaptation, without giving a clear explanation of how they would boost climate resilience. They include strengthening electricity grids in Pakistan and Argentina, a hydropower plant in Tanzania and work to develop decarbonisation plans in Uzbekistan.

South Korea is not part of the group of developed countries under the UN climate regime and is therefore not obliged to provide climate finance to poor nations. But, in recent years, the country – one of the world’s largest economies – has hailed its “significant” support to the Global South for climate adaptation interventions.

Transport projects made up a significant portion of South Korea’s adaptation spending in developing countries in 2023. It counted the construction of a railway bridge in Bangladesh, a major highway in Vietnam and road networks in Cambodia and the Philippines among its top adaptation projects.

Hanna Hakko, a senior policy advisor at think-tank E3G, said developing countries have a critical need to build new resilient infrastructure and climate-proof what they already have.

“However, there is a need for clarity and guardrails around what counts as resilient infrastructure and to ensure impacted communities benefit from these projects and environmental impacts are minimised,” she added.

The climate ministries of South Korea and France had not responded to Climate Home’s request for clarifications on their adaptation finance at the time of publication.

Limited transparency in reporting system

Other donor governments such as Denmark, Switzerland and Finland take a more conservative approach, only counting pure climate adaptation activities or funding donated as grants in their spending.

But limited transparency in the reporting system makes it difficult to tell how much money overall is directed at efforts that truly help the most vulnerable communities to better cope with the escalating impacts of climate change.

Countries disclose brief and vague descriptions of the projects, often failing to offer details on their relevance for climate adaptation, Climate Home found.

Foreign aid cuts put adaptation finance pledge at risk, NGOs warn

Some European countries, including Germany, France and Italy, did not even identify a specific project or recipient nation for non-concessional funding worth hundreds of millions of dollars that was tagged as adaptation finance.

Ian Mitchell, a senior policy fellow at the Center for Global Development, said the problem lies with setting international goals to provide a certain amount of finance without a broadly agreed definition of what that finance can consist of.

“It is a pretty damaging state of affairs because these agreements are reached to motivate other countries to undertake climate action,” he added.

Focus on plugging adaptation gap

At the COP26 climate summit in Glasgow four years ago, developed countries committed to doubling adaptation funding for developing nations from 2019 levels to reach at least $40 billion by 2025.

That promise now looks set to be broken. According to the latest UN Environment Programme Adaptation Gap Report, international public adaptation funding from wealthy governments stood at only $26 billion in 2023 – falling slightly from the previous year.

UNEP’s report, released on Wednesday, warns that this year’s target “will be missed if current trends continue”.

Since 2023, widespread cuts to aid budgets amid geopolitical tensions and fiscal pressures have likely put the Glasgow goal further out of reach. Least-developed countries (LDCs), meanwhile, are pushing for a new goal to be set at COP30 to boost adaptation finance to about $100 billion a year by 2030.

Brazil’s COP presidency also wants to elevate climate adaptation, which has long missed out on political attention and funding directed instead to efforts to cut greenhouse gas emissions.

The renewed focus on adaptation in Belém could also increase scrutiny of how donor countries are allocating climate finance in countries like Bangladesh, and whose interests they are serving.

Climate-friendly coal plant?

Japan’s investments in Matarbari, for example, come as the country seeks to develop its economic ties with Bangladesh and counter China’s growing influence in the region.

Even the 1,200-megawatt coal-fired power plant, which JICA has financed with loans worth more than $2 billion, was counted by Japan as climate finance. It said the technology installed by Japanese firms made the plant more efficient, leading to a reduction in emissions compared to a conventional station.

The plant is expected to spew into the atmosphere nearly 7 million tonnes of carbon dioxide a year – equivalent to the total annual emissions generated by a small country like Mauritius.

As ships needed to deliver coal to fuel the plant, the developers built a port and a navigation channel connecting it to the ocean. Those facilities are now being expanded with the construction of the neighbouring deep-sea commercial port, which Japan agreed to fund in 2023 with a $726-million concessional loan.

Expected to be completed in 2029 by Japanese companies, the project aims to increase Bangladesh’s ability to handle cargo and spur economic activity in the area.

Takahiro Okamoto, who oversees the project at JICA’s Bangladesh office, said the inclusion of protections, like breakwaters, retaining walls and raised embankments, will shield the port and its access road from the impact of storm surges and cyclones.

“By allowing larger, more efficient ships to dock directly, the project reduces the country’s reliance on smaller, vulnerable ports and trans-shipment hubs in other countries, which might be more susceptible to disruptions from climate change and other factors,” Okamoto added.

Loss of salt and shrimp farms

Amid the bustle of construction activity, local residents in the area were sceptical about whether the development will make them better prepared for tidal surges or more frequent and severe storms.

Even if it does, they said the cost to their communities has been too high.

Over a third of the salt and shrimp farms in the area would be lost as a result of the construction, an impact assessment carried out by JICA found, adding that the mega-project would affect an area inhabited by almost 800,000 people.

Habibur Rahman, an unemployed 24-year-old man, said the development was not offering stable job opportunities for locals, while the coal power plant was causing growing pollution and damaging fishing activities.

“The [port] authority did not take a single project to develop our lives,” Rahman said.

Chittagong Port Authority and the Shipping Ministry did not reply to requests for comment.

JICA’s Okamoto said contractors are encouraged to employ local residents “as much as possible”, while 500 people have so far been trained under a programme that supports alternative income-generating activities.

He added that embankments built along the access road to the port to protect it would also serve as evacuation routes in disasters and that further protective measures may be considered as part of a separate plan being worked on by the Bangladesh government.

In the meantime, rising sea levels and stronger tidal flooding continue to chip away at the coast and swallow homes in the area, local media have reported.

“In no way [is] this an adaptation or resilience project,” Shamsuddoha said of the Matarbari development, saying it did not represent “resilient livelihoods” that would support coastal communities.

While developed countries pour their money into headline climate investment projects, the human dimension of adaptation is “completely missing”, he added.

The post Business-as-usual: Donors pour climate adaptation finance into big infrastructure, neglecting local needs appeared first on Climate Home News.

Business-as-usual: Donors pour climate adaptation finance into big infrastructure, neglecting local needs