Published

1 month ago

December 9, 2025

Alice Rush

Weather Guard Lightning Tech

German Bird Study Finds 99% Avoid Turbines, SunZia Progress

Allen, Joel, Rosemary, and Yolanda discuss a German study finding 99.8% of birds avoid wind turbines, challenging long-standing collision risk models. They also cover Pattern Energy’s SunZia project nearing completion as the Western Hemisphere’s largest renewable project, lightning monitoring strategies for large-scale wind farms, and offshore flange alignment technology.

Sign up now for Uptime Tech News, our weekly email update on all things wind technology. This episode is sponsored by Weather Guard Lightning Tech. Learn more about Weather Guard’s StrikeTape Wind Turbine LPS retrofit. Follow the show on Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, Linkedin and visit Weather Guard on the web. And subscribe to Rosemary Barnes’ YouTube channel here. Have a question we can answer on the show? Email us!

You are listening to the Uptime Wind Energy Podcast brought to you by build turbines.com. Learn, train, and be a part of the Clean Energy Revolution. Visit build turbines.com today. Now, here’s your host. Alan Hall, Joel Saxon, Phil Totaro, and Rosemary Barnes.

Allen Hall: Welcome to the Uptime Wind Energy Podcast. I’m your host Alan Hall in the queen city of Charlotte, North Carolina, where a cold front is just blown through, but we’re not nearly as cold as Joel was up in Wisconsin, Joel, you had a bunch of snow, which is really the first big storm of the season.

Joel Saxum: Yeah, the crazy thing here was the Wind Energy Podcast. So since that storm I, we, we got up in northern Wisconsin, 18 inches of snow, and then we drove down on last Saturday after US Thanksgiving through Iowa, there’s another 18 inches of snow in Des Moines. I talked to a more than one operator that had icing and snow issues at their wind farms all through the northern Midwest of these states.

So from [00:01:00] North Dakota. All the way down to Nebraska, Northern Missouri, over into Indiana. There was a ton of turbines that were iced up and or snowed in from that storm,

Allen Hall: and Rosemary was in warm Australia with other icing knowledge or de-icing knowledge while the US has been suffering.

Rosemary Barnes: But you know, on the first day of summer here, a couple of days ago, it was minus one here overnight.

So. Um, yeah, it’s, uh, unseasonable and then tomorrow it’ll be 35.

Allen Hall: The smartest one of us all has been Yolanda, down in Austin, Texas, where it doesn’t get cold.

Yolanda Padron: Never. It’s so nice. It’s raining today and that’s about it. Traffic’s going crazy.

Joel Saxum: Rain is welcome for us, isn’t it though, Yolanda?

Yolanda Padron: It’s sweet. It doesn’t happen very often, but when it does.

Very rainy for like 24 hours.

Allen Hall: We’ve been saving a story for a couple of weeks until Rosemary is back and it has to do with birds and a year long study over [00:02:00] in Germany. And as we know, one of the most persistent arguments against wind energy has been the risk to birds and permitting and operation shutdowns have been the norm, uh, based on models and predicted collision risks.

Well. A new study comes, has just come out that says, what if the models are all wrong? And the new German study suggests that they may be wrong. The Federal Association of Offshore Wind Energy, known by its German acronym, BWO Commission Research to examine. Actual collision risk at a coastal wind farm in Northern Germany.

The study was conducted by Biocon Consult, a German research and consulting firm, and funded by eight major offshore wind operators, including Sted, Vattenfall, RWE, and E, roa, and. Rosemary using some of the newer technology. They were able to track bird movements with radar [00:03:00] and AI and stereo vision cameras to, to watch birds move through and around, uh, some of these wind farms.

And it analyzed more than 4 million bird movements and over 18 months, and they searched for collision victims and what they found was pretty striking more than 99.8% of both day migrating and night migrating birds. Avoided the turbines entirely. The study found no correlation between migration intensity and collision rates.

And BD and BWO says The combination of radar and AI based cameras represents a methodological breakthrough. Uh, that can keep turbines moving even when birds are in transit. This is pretty shocking news, honestly, Rosemary, I, I haven’t seen a lot of long-term studies about bird movements where they really had a lot of technology involved to, besides binoculars, to, to look at bird movement.

The [00:04:00] 99.8% of the migrating birds are going around The turbines. No, the turbines are there. That’s. Really new information.

Rosemary Barnes: I think. I mean, if you never heard anything about wind turbines and birds, I don’t think you’d be shocked like that. Birds mostly fly around obstacles. That’s probably an intuitive, intuitive answer.

Because we’ve had it shoved down our throat for decades now. Wind turbines are huge bird killers. It’s kind of like, it’s been repeated so often that it kind of like sinks in and becomes instinctive, even though, yeah, I do think that, um, it’s. Not that, that shocking that an animal with eyes avoids a big obstacle when it’s flying.

Um, but it is really good that somebody has actually done more than just trying to look for bird deaths. You know, they’ve actually gone out, seen what can we find, and then reported that they found mostly nothing. We already knew the real risks for birds, like hundreds or thousands, even millions of times [00:05:00] more, um, deadly to birds are things like.

Cats. Cars, buildings, even power lines kill more birds than, um, wind turbines do. In fact, like when you look at, um, the studies that look at wind, um, bird deaths from wind turbines, most of those are from people driving, like workers driving to site and hitting a bird with their cars. Um, you know, that’s attributed to wind energy.

Not a surprise maybe for people that have been following very closely, but good to see the report. Nonetheless.

Joel Saxum: I think it’s a win for like the global wind industry, to be honest with you, because like you said, there’s, there’s no, um, like real studies of this with, that’s backed up by metric data with, like I said, like the use stereo cameras.

Radar based AI detection and, and some of those things, like if you talk with some ornithologists for the big OEMs and stuff, they’ve been dabbling in those things. Like I dabbled in a project without a DTU, uh, a while back and it, but it wasn’t large scale done like this. A [00:06:00] particular win this study in the United States is there’s been this battle in the United States about what birds and what, you know, raptors or these things are controlled or should have, um, controls over them by the governments for wind installations.

The big one right now is US Fish and Wildlife Service, uh, controls raptors, right? So that’s your eagle’s, owls, hawks, those kind of things. So they’ll map out the nests and you can only go in certain areas, uh, or build in certain areas depending on when their mating seasons are. And they put mild buffers on some of them.

It’s pretty crazy. Um, but the one rule in the United States, it’s been kind of floated out there, like, we’re gonna throw this in your face, wind industry. Is the Federal Migratory Bird Act, which is also how they regulate all like the, the hunting seasons. So it’s not, it’s the reason that the migratory birds are controlled by the federal government as opposed to state governments is because they cross state lines.

And if we can [00:07:00] prove now via this study that wind farms are not affecting these migratory bird patterns or causing deaths, then it keeps the feds out of our, you know, out of the permitting process for. For birds,

Rosemary Barnes: but I’m not sure this is really gonna change that much in terms of the environmental approvals that you need to do because it’s a, you know, a general, a general thing with a general, um, statistical population doesn’t look at a specific wind farm with a specific bird and you’re still need to go.

You’re still going to have to need to look at that every time you’re planning an actual wind farm. That’s it’s fair.

Yolanda Padron: And it’s funny sometimes how people choose what they care or don’t care about. I know living in a high rise, birds will hit the window like a few a month. And obviously they will pass away from impact and the building’s not going anywhere.

Just like a turbine’s not going anywhere. And I’ve never had anybody complain to [00:08:00] me about living and condoning high rises because of how they kill the birds. And I’ve had people complain to me about wind turbines killing the birds. It’s like, well, they’re just there.

Joel Saxum: If we’re, if we’re talking about energy production, the, if everybody remembers the deep water horizon oil spill 2010 in the Gulf of Mexico.

That oil spill killed between 801.2 million birds. Just that one.

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Allen Hall: well in the high desert of Central New Mexico, near a lot of what were ghost towns that were abandoned during the Great Depression.

If there is a flurry of activity pattern, energy sunzi, a project is near completion after 20 years of planning and permitting. When. It’s supposed to be finished in 2026. It’ll be the largest renewable energy project in the Western hemisphere. More than 900 turbines spread across multiple counties. A 550 mile transmission line stretching to Arizona and then onward to California, and $11 billion bet that’s being made on American wind.

Now, Joel, it’s a kind of a combination of two OEMs there, Vestus and ge. The pace of building has been really rapid over the last six, eight months from what I can [00:10:00] tell.

Joel Saxum: Yeah. We have talked to multiple ISPs, EPC contractors. Um, of course we know some of the engineers involved in building a thing on the pattern side.

Right. But this sheer size of this thing, right, it’s, it is three and a half gigawatts, right? You’re talking 900 turbines and, and so big that one OEM really couldn’t, I mean, it’s a, it’s a risk hedge, right? But couldn’t fulfill the order. So you have massive ge tur set of turbines out there. Massive set of vestas turbines out there.

And I think one thing that’s not to be missed on this project as well is that transmission line, that high voltage transmission line that’s feeding this thing. Because that’s what we need, right? That was when we built, started building up big time in Texas, the cre, the crest lines that were built to bring all of that wind energy to the major cities in Texas.

That was a huge part of it. And we have seen over the last six months, we have seen loans canceled, uh, permits being pulled and like troubles being in hurdles, being thrown up in the face of a lot of these transmission lines that are planned. [00:11:00] These big ones in the states. And that’s what we need for energy security in the future, is these big transmission lines to go.

So we can get some of this generation to, uh, to the market, get electrons flowing into homes and into industry. But this thing here, man, um, I know we’ve been talking about Sunz, the Sunz project, uh, and all the people involved in it, in the wind industry for a, what, two, three years now? Oh, at least. Yeah.

It’s been in planning and development stage for much longer than that. But the. The, the big bet. I like it. Um, bringing a lot of, um, bringing a lot of economic opportunity to New Mexico, right? A place that, uh, if you’ve driven across New Mexico lately, it needs it in a dire way. Uh, and this is how wind energy can bring a lot of, uh, economic boom to places that, uh, hadn’t had it in the past.

Allen Hall: And this being the largest project to date, there’s a, I think a couple more than a pipeline that could be larger if they get moving on them. We see another project like this five years [00:12:00] from now, or we think we’re gonna scale down and stay in the gigawatt range just because of the scale and the things that Sunzi went through.

Joel Saxum: We have the choke chair, Sierra Madre project up in Wyoming that’s been chugging the Anschutz Corporation’s been pushing that thing for a long time. That’s, that’s along the same size of this unit. Um, and it’s the same thing. It’s, it’s kind of hinged on, I mean, there’s permitting issues, but it’s hinged on a transmission line being built.

I think that one’s like 700. 50 miles of transmission. That’s supposed to be, it’s like Wyoming all the way down to Las Vegas. That project is sitting out there. Um, it’s hard to build something of that size in, like say the wind corridor, the Texas, Oklahoma, uh, you know, all the way up to the Dakotas, just simply because of the massive amount of landowners and public agencies involved in those things.

It’s a bit easier when you get out West New Mexico. Um, I could see something like this happening possibly in Nevada. At some point in time to feed that California [00:13:00] side of things, right? But they’re doing massive solar farms out there. Same kind of concept. Um, I, I think that, um, I would love to see something like this happen, but to invest that kind of capital, you’ve got to have some kind of ITC credits going for you.

Um, otherwise, I mean, $11 billion is, that’s a lot of money

Allen Hall: since Zia will have PTC. Which is a huge driver about the economics for the entire project.

Joel Saxum: Yeah. But you’re also seeing at the same time, just because of the volatility of what’s happening in the states wind wise, uh, there was a big article out today of someone who got wind that EDF may be selling its entire

Allen Hall: US onshore renewable operation or US renewable operation.

That was Wood Mac that. Put that out. And I’m still not sure that’s a hundred percent reliable, but they have been 50% for sale for a while. Everybody, I think everybody knew that.

Joel Saxum: Yeah. I don’t know if it’s a hundred percent reliable as well. I would agree with you there. However, there’s, it’s the [00:14:00] same thought process of European company pulling outta the United States.

That’s where a lot of the renewable energy capital is, or it has been fed to a lot of that capital comes from Canada and other places too. Right. But that’s where it’s been fed through. Um, but you’re starting to see some, some. Uh, purchasing some acquisitions, a little bit of selling and buying here and there.

I don’t, I don’t think that there’s, uh, massive ones on the horizon. That’s just my opinion though.

Allen Hall: Well, won’t the massive ones be offshore if we ever get back to it?

Joel Saxum: Yeah, you would think so, right? But I, that’s gonna take a, uh, an administration change. I mean the, the, all that stuff you’d see out in California, like when we were originally seeing the leases come out and we were like, oh, great.

More offshore opportunity. Ah, but it’s California, so it’ll be kind of tough. It probably won’t be till 20 32, 20, something like that. I don’t think we’ll see possibly California offshore wind until 2040 if we’re lucky.

Allen Hall: Joel, what were the two wind turbines selected for Sunz? They were both new models, right?

One from Renova and then the other one from [00:15:00] Vestas,

Joel Saxum: so the Vestas was 242 V, 1 63, 4 0.5 megawatts machines, and the, and the GE Renova. Just so we get, make sure I get clarity on this. 674 of its three. They were 3.6, but they’re 3.61 50 fours.

Allen Hall: Okay. So both turbine types are relatively new. New to the manufacturer.

CZ has two new turbines styles on the site.

Joel Saxum: Yeah, we were told that when they were originally like getting delivered, that they didn’t have type certificates yet. That’s how new they were.

Allen Hall: So Yolanda. As Sania starts to turn on, what are things that they need to be aware of blade wise,

Yolanda Padron: besides the lightning and the dust in New Mexico?

It’s probably gonna tip them. I don’t know exactly what they’re counting with as far as leading edge protection goes.

Allen Hall: Pattern usually doesn’t, uh, have a full service agreement. Joel, do you remember if that was an FSA? I don’t think so.

Joel Saxum: I would say [00:16:00] because those are Vestas turbines on the one that, yes, Vestas really doesn’t sell a turbine without it.

Knowing internally how big patterns engineering group are, I don’t know if they can completely take on the operations of a thousand more turbine, 900 more turbines overnight. Right? So I think that there is gonna be some OE EMM involvement in these things, uh, simply to be at that scale as well. I don’t know of anywhere else with a 1 54 install a GE 1 54.

So the things that I wouldn’t looking out is the. It’s the brand new type stuff, right? Like do internal inspections when they’re on the ground. You don’t know what kind of condition these things are in, what, you know, what is the, you haven’t, nobody’s seen them. Like you’re the first ones to get to get your hands on these things.

Yolanda Padron: Yeah, I think they’re definitely gonna have to go with some sort of consulting or something externally as far as what exactly they’re dealing with. I know, Rosemary, you’ve touched on it a lot, right about. [00:17:00] How the changing the blade types and changing the turbines every x amount of years is really not conducive to, to being able to repeat the same results.

And if you’re having that for hundreds of turbines at a new site that you’ve already had so much time and money invested in creating, it’ll, it’s, it’s a big undertaking.

Rosemary Barnes: It’s really interesting because. When you have such a large wind farm be, I’m assuming one of the first wind farms may be the first to get this new turbine types, then if there’s a serial defect, it’s gonna be very obvious.

’cause with smaller wind farms, one of the problems is that, uh, the numbers are too small to definitively say whether something is, um, serial or just random bad luck. Um, but when you get. So how many wind turbines is it?

Joel Saxum: Almost a thousand total. It’s [00:18:00] 674 GE turbines and 242 Vesta turbines.

Rosemary Barnes: You can do statistics on that kind of a population and this area.

I mean, there’s lightning there, right? Like this is not an area where you’re not gonna see lightning. You know, in know the first couple of years, like there, there will be. Hundreds of turbines damaged by lightning in the, the first couple of years I would suggest, um, or, you know, maybe not. Maybe the LPS are so, so great that that doesn’t happen.

But, you know, the typical standard of LPS would mean that, you know, even if you only see, say we see 10 strikes per turbine to year and you get a 2% damage rate, that is, you know, lots of, lots of individual instances of blade damage, even if everything works as it should according to certification. And if it doesn’t, if you see a 10% damage rate or something from those strikes, then you are going to know that, you know, the, um, LPS is not performing the way that the standard says that it should.

It’s not like that’s a slam dunk for, um, [00:19:00] proving that the design was not sufficient or the certification wasn’t correct. It’s always really, really tricky. My recommendation would be to make sure that you are monitoring the lightning strikes, so you know exactly which turbine is struck and when, and then go inspect them and see the damage.

Ideally, you’re also gonna be measuring some of the characteristics of the lightning as well. But you do that from day one. Then if there is a problem, then you’re at least gonna have enough information within the, um, you know, the serial defect liability period to be able to do something about it.

Joel Saxum: Let me ask you a question on that, on just the, that lightning monitoring piece then.

So this is something that’s just, it’s of course we do this all the time, but this is boiling up in the thing. How do you, how do you monitor for lightning on 916 turbines? Probably spread, spread across. 200 square miles.

Rosemary Barnes: Well, there’s, there’s heaps of different ways that you can do it. Um, so I mean, you can do remote, remote lightning detection, which is [00:20:00] not good enough.

Then there are a range of different technologies that you can install in the, um, turbines. Um, the most simple and longest standing solution was a lightning cart, which is installed on the down conductor at the blade route. That will just tell you the amplitude of the biggest strike that that turbine has ever seen when it’s red.

I have literally never seen a case where the lightning card definitively or even provided useful evidence one way or another when there’s a, a dispute about lightning. So then you move on to solutions that, uh, um. Measuring they use, uh, Alan, you’re the electrical engineer, but they, they use the, the principle that when there’s a large current flowing, then it also induces a magnetic field.

And then you can use that to make a, a, a change and read characteristics about it. So you can tell, um, well first of all, that that turbine was definitely struck. So there are simple systems that can do that quite cheaply. The OGs ping [00:21:00] sensor, does that really cost effectively? Um, and then OG Ping. Phoenix Contact and Polytech all have a different product.

Um, all have their own products that can tell you the charge, the duration, the um, polarity or the, yeah, the, the, if it’s a positive or a negative strike, um, yeah, rise time, things like that. Um, about the strike, that’s probably, probably, you don’t. Need to go to that extent. Um, I would say just knowing definitively which turbine was struck and when is gonna give you what you need to be able to establish what kind of a problem or if you have a problem and what kind of a problem it is.

Joel Saxum: I think that like an important one there too is like, uh, so I know that Vest is in a lot of their FSA contracts will say if it’s struck by lightning, we have 48 or 72 hours to inspect it. Right. And when you’re talking something of this scale, 916 turbines out there, like if there’s a lightning storm, like [00:22:00]we’ve been watching, we watch a lot of lightning storms come through, uh, certain wind farms that we’re working with.

And you see 20, 30, 40 turbines get struck. Now if a storm comes through the middle of this wind farm, you’re gonna have 200 turbines get struck. How in the hell do you go out without ha Like you need to have something that can narrow you down to exactly the turbines that we’re struck. That being said that next morning or over the next two days, you need to deploy like 10 people in trucks to drive around and go look at these things.

That’s gonna be a massive problem. Pattern has about 3000 turbines, I think in their portfolio, and they, so they’re, they’re familiar with lightning issues and how things happen, but something at this scale when it’s just like so peaky, right? ’cause a storm isn’t through every night, so you don’t have that need to go and inspect things.

But when you do. That is gonna be a massive undertaking. ’cause you gotta get people out there to literally like, at a minimum, binocular these things to make sure there isn’t any damage on ’em. And it’s gonna be, there’s gonna be storms where hundreds of turbines get hit.

Rosemary Barnes: Yeah, well [00:23:00] those three companies, those three products that I mentioned are aiming to get around that.

I mean, it will depend how contracts are worded. I know in Australia it is not the norm to check for lightning ever. So if the contract says someone has to, you know, use human eyeballs to verify lightning damage or not, then. That’s, you know, that’s what has to happen. But all of these technologies do aim to offer a way that you wouldn’t have to inspect every single one.

So Polytech is using, um, different lightning characteristics and then they’ve got an algorithm which they say will learn, um, which types of strike cause damage that could. Potentially progress to catastrophic damage. Um, and then the other one that is interesting is the eLog Ping solution because they’ve also got the, um, damage monitoring.

That’s their original aim of their product, was that if there’s a damage on the blade tip, say it’s been punctured by lightning, it, it actually makes a noise. Like it makes a whistle and they listen out for that. So if you combine the [00:24:00]lightning detection and the, um, like blade. Tip structure monitoring from Ping, then you can get a good idea of which ones are damaged.

Like if it’s damaged badly enough to fail, it is almost certainly gonna be making a noise that the ping can, um, detect

Allen Hall: as wind energy professionals. Staying informed is crucial, and let’s face it, d. That’s why the Uptime podcast recommends PES Wind Magazine. PES Wind offers a diverse range of in-depth articles and expert insights that dive into the most pressing issues facing our energy future.

Whether you’re an industry veteran or new to wind, PES Wind has the high quality content you need. Don’t miss out. Visit PE ps win.com today and this quarter’s PES WIN Magazine. There’s a lot of great articles, and as we roll into December. You’ll have time to sit down and read them. You can download a free copy@pswin.com.

And there’s a, a really interesting article about [00:25:00] offshore, and there’s a number of articles about offshore this quarter. Well, two Dutch companies developed a solution to really one of the industry’s most persistent headaches. And when it’s flange alignment. So when you’re trying to connect the transition piece to the mono paddle out in the water, it’s not really easy to do.

Uh. So PES interviewed, uh, Ontech and Dutch heavy lift consultants to explain their flange alignment system known as FAS. And it started when a turbine installation needed a safer, faster way to try to align these two pieces. So if you can think about the amount of steel we’re talking about, these are really massive pieces you’re trying to line and put bolts in, not easy to do out in the ocean.

Uh, so what this new device can do is it can align the flanges in a couple of minutes. It can reshape deformed, flanges and Joel, as you know, everything offshore can get dinged warped. That’s pretty easy to do, so you don’t want that when you have a, a heavily loaded, bolted joint, like those flanges to be [00:26:00] perfectly, uh, smooth to one another and, and tight.

So these two companies, Amek and Dutch heavy Lifting consultants have come up with some pretty cool technology to speed up. Installations of wind turbines.

Joel Saxum: Yeah, I would say anybody who’s interested in wind, offshore wind, any of that sort, and you have a little bit of an engineering mind or an engineering, uh, quirk in your mind.

As, as I think we said earlier in the episode today, engineering nerds. Um, I would encourage you to go and look at some heavy lift operations offshore, whether it is offshore wind, offshore oil and gas, offshore construction of any time or any type even pipe lay operations and stuff. Just to take, just to take in the, the sheer scale.

At how, uh, at how these things are being done and how difficult that would be to manage. Think about the just tons and tons of steel and, uh, trying to put these pieces together and these different things. And then remember that these vessels are thousands of dollars, sometimes a minute for how specialized they are.

Right? So a lot of money gets put into [00:27:00] how the, like when we’re putting monopiles in that these transit transition pieces get put on. A lot of money has been spent on. The ver like technology to get, make sure they’re super, super tight tolerances on the verticality of those when they’re driving the actual piles in.

And then you’re doing that offshore in a nasty environment, sometimes from a jack up vessel, sometimes not from a jack vessel, sometimes from a mor or like a, you know, a pseudo mor vessel on, uh. Dynamic positioning systems, and then you’re swinging these big things with cranes and all this stuff, like, it’s just a crazy amount of engineering eng engineering and operational knowledge that goes into making this stuff happen.

And if you make one little mistake, all of a sudden that piece can be useless. Right? Like I’ve been a part of, of heavy offshore lifting for oil and gas where they’ve. It’s built a piece on shore, got it out to the vessel, went to go put it off sub sea in 2000 meters of water, lowered it all the way down there and it didn’t fit like you just burned [00:28:00] hundreds and hundreds and thousands of millions of dollars in time.

So this kind of technology that Anima Tech is putting out in Dutch Heavy Lift consultants. This is the key to making sure that these offshore operations go well. So kudos to these guys for solve for seeing a problem and solving a problem with a real solution. Uh, instead of just kind of like dreaming things up, making something happen here.

I’d like to see it.

Allen Hall: Check out that article and many more in this quarter’s. PES Wind Magazine downloaded free copy@pswind.com. Well, Yolanda, as we know, everybody’s out with Sky Specs, uh, doing blade inspections, and so many turbines have issues this year. A lot of hail damage, a lot of lightning damage and some serial defects from what I can tell.

Uh, we’re, we’re getting to that crazy season where we’re trying to get ready for next year and prioritize. This is the time to call C-I-C-N-D-T and actually take a deep hard look at some of this damage, particularly at the blade root area. We’ve seen a lot more of that where, [00:29:00] uh, there’s been failures of some blades at the root where the bolt connection is.

So you’re gonna have to get some NDT done. Boy, oh boy, you better get C-I-C-N-D-T booked up or get them on the phone because they’re getting really busy.

Yolanda Padron: Yeah, you definitely need to schedule something. Make sure that you know at least where you stand, right? Be because imagine going into try to fix something and just have a hammer and then close your eyes and then see what you can fix.

That way, like sometimes it feels like when you’re in operations, if you don’t have the proper. The proper inspections done, which sometimes there’s, there’s not enough budget for, or appetite or knowledge, um, in some of these projects to have early on. You come in and just, you, you see the end result of failure modes and you might see something that’s really, really expensive to fix now.

Or you might think of, oh, this problem happened at X, Y, Z. [00:30:00] Site, so it’ll probably happen here. That’s not necessarily the case. So getting someone like NDT to be able to come in and actually tell you this is what’s going on in your site, and these are the potential failure modes that you’re going to see based on what you’re getting and this is what will probably happen, or this is what is happening over time in your site, is a lot more indicative to be able to solve those problems faster and way.

More way, in a way less expensive manner than if you were to go in and just try to fix everything reactively. You know, if you have half a bond line missing. Then later you, your blade breaks. It’s like, well, I mean, you, you could, you could have seen it, you could have prevented it. You could have saved that blade and saved yourself millions and millions of dollars and, and so much more money in downtime.

Joel Saxum: Yeah. The first time I ran into Jeremy Hess and the C-A-C-N-D team was actually on an insurance project where it was Yolanda, like you said, like [00:31:00] they let it go. The, the operator and the OEM let it go way too long, and all of a sudden they had a, like wind farm wide shutdown costing them millions in production.

Uh, to find these, these issues that, uh, could have been found in a different manner when you talk to the team over there. Um, why we like to recommend them from the podcast is Jeremy has an answer for everything. He’s been around the world. He’s worked in multiple industries, aerospace, race, cars, sailboats, you name it.

Um, he’s been a client to almost everybody, you know, in the wind industry, all the OEMs, right? So he knows the, the issues. He has the right tool sets. To dive into them. You, you may not know, not, you don’t need to be an NDT expert to be able to have a conversation because he will coach you through, okay, here you have this problem.

Alright, this is how we would look at it. This is how we would solve it. Here’s how you would monitor for it, and then this is how you would, you know, possibly fix it. Or this is what the, the solution looks like. Um, because I think that’s one of the [00:32:00] hurdles to the industry with NDT projects is people just don’t.

Know what’s available, what’s out there, what they can see, what they, you know, the issues that they might be able to uncover, like you said, Yolanda. So, um, we encourage, um, anybody that says, Hey, do you know anybody in NDT? Yeah, it’s Jeremy Hanks and the C-I-C-N-D-T team. Call ’em up. They’ve got the solutions, they’ll help you out.

Allen Hall: That wraps up another episode of the Uptime Wind Energy Podcast. If today’s discussion sparked any questions or ideas, we’d love to hear from you. Just reach out to us on LinkedIn and don’t forget to subscribe so you never miss an episode. And if you found value in today’s conversation, please leave us a review.

It really helps other wind energy professionals discover the show and we’ll catch you next week on the Uptime Wind Energy [00:33:00] Podcast.

German Bird Study Finds 99% Avoid Turbines, SunZia Progress

Renewable Energy

Poverty in the United States

Published

20 hours ago

January 20, 2026

Alice Rush

There is no doubt that poverty, ignorance, intolerance, and support of criminal tyrants are deeply interconnected. It’s a shame that nothing can be done to help these people.

Poverty in the United States

Renewable Energy

Choosing the Right Commercial Solar System Size for Business

Published

23 hours ago

January 20, 2026

Alice Rush

Undoubtedly, installing a commercial solar system in 2026 is one of the smartest long-term decisions any Australian business can make.

The underlying reason is pretty straightforward!

With electricity prices rising and sustainability becoming increasingly important, solar offers both financial savings and reputational benefits.

But one of the biggest questions business owners face early on is this:

What size solar system do we actually need?

Go too small, and you won’t see the savings you were hoping for. Go too big, and you risk overcapitalising or exporting excess energy at low feed-in rates.

Therefore, the right answer sits somewhere in the middle, and finding it requires more than just a guess.

In this guide, we’ll walk you through the three key steps that determine the right commercial solar system size for your business:

Load analysis
Roof or site assessment
System design considerations

So let’s break down how to help you make a confident decision.

In this blog post:

Step 1: Understanding Your Business Energy Load

This is where it all starts: before panels, inverters, or roof space are even discussed, the most important piece of the puzzle is your energy usage, not just how much you use, but when you use it.

Most businesses start by looking at their electricity bill and focusing on the total kilowatt-hours (kWh) used per month or year.

While that number matters, it’s only part of the story. Look beyond the total kWh because, for solar, the timing of your energy use is critical.

Consider an office, manufacturing facility, medical centre, or retail business that uses most of its electricity between 9 am and 4 pm; it is far more “solar-friendly” than one that uses most of its power overnight, such as cold storage or 24/7 operations.

Daytime vs After-Hours Usage

Before installing solar in your commercial property, ask yourself these:

Are your main operations running during daylight hours?
Do heavy machines, HVAC systems, or production lines operate while the sun is up?
Does usage drop significantly after business hours?

The more energy you use during the day, the more of your business solar power you’ll consume directly, which is where the biggest savings are.

However, in some cases, exporting excess energy back to the grid is beneficial, but feed-in tariffs are usually much lower than what you pay for electricity. For greater financial outcomes, it’s better to install battery storage.

Interval Data: A Standard Method

In Australia, for a proper load analysis, solar professionals typically review interval data, typically 15 or 30 minute usage from your electricity retailer.

This data shows your:

Daily load patterns
Peak demand times
Seasonal variations like summer vs winter

This level of detail allows system sizing to be tailored specifically to your business, rather than depending on rough averages.

Step 2: Roof and Site Assessment – What Can Your Building Actually Handle?

Once energy usage is understood, the next question becomes: where will the system go?

Thinking the same? Here’s your answer!

For most commercial systems, the roof is the obvious choice, but not all roofs are equal in size.

Available Roof Space

Solar panels take up space, and commercial systems can require significant space. The rough estimation says:

100kW system is needed for a roof of 500–600 square metres
200kW system is needed for a roof of 1,000–1,200 square metres

However, usable space is often less than the total roof area. Factors that reduce usable space include:

HVAC units
Skylights
Roof access paths
Setback requirements
Fire safety regulations

Roof Orientation and Tilt

In Australia, north-facing panels generally produce the most energy, but east- and west-facing systems can still perform very well, especially for businesses with high daytime energy requirements.

Also, flat roofs are common on commercial buildings and offer flexibility, as panels can be tilted and oriented at any time using mounting frames.

Structural Integrity

One overlooked factor is whether the roof can physically support the system.

Commercial solar systems add weight, and while it’s usually well within limits, older buildings or lightweight structures may need a structural engineer’s approval.

Therefore, it’s far better to identify this early than be surprised later in the project.

Ground-Mounted and Carport Options

If your roof space is limited, don’t stress out, there are alternative ways, such as:

Ground-mounted solar systems
Solar carports over parking areas

Even these options can increase the system’s potential size but come with higher costs and planning considerations.

Step 3: Matching System Size to Business Needs

A common problem or misconception about solar panels is that bigger is always better. In reality, the best-sized system is one that aligns closely with your energy profile and business goals.

Self-Consumption

Do you know that the highest financial return comes from using solar energy directly on-site?

This is why many commercial systems are designed to offset 60-80% of daytime energy use, rather than 100% of total annual consumption.

Oversizing a system may result in:

Excess exports at low feed-in tariffs
Longer payback periods
Underutilised capital

A perfectly designed system balances generation with actual energy demand.

Future-Proofing

Above all these, it’s also important to think ahead. Therefore, businesses should consider:

Planned expansion
Electric vehicle fleets
New machinery or equipment
Electrification of gas processes

Sometimes installing a slightly larger system, or choosing inverters that support future expansion, makes sense. The goal is to give scalability to your system, not blind oversizing.

Demand Charges and Peak Loads

Many Australian businesses pay demand charges based on their highest usage intervals.

While solar can help reduce daytime demand, it won’t always eliminate peaks, especially if they occur early morning or late afternoon.

In some cases, system design may focus on shaving peaks rather than just maximising total generation.

Which Components Make a Great Commercial Solar System?

A great commercial solar system comes down to a few essential components working together in sync.

Together, these ensure maximum energy output, safety, and return on investment. So, here’s a list:

Solar panels: High-efficiency, durable, long warranties
Inverters: Reliable DC-to-AC conversion and system control
Mounting & racking: Strong, site-specific structural support
Monitoring: Real-time performance tracking and alerts
Safety & protection: Grounding, rapid shutdown, surge and fault protection
Engineering & design: Proper system layout, permitting, and grid compliance

Operations & maintenance: Ongoing inspections to ensure long-term performance

Commercial Solar Batteries: Should They Affect System Size?

In Australia the battery storage is becoming more common, but it’s not always necessary upfront.

For many businesses, only solar panel systems offer the best return on investment. However, batteries tend to make more sense when:

Evening or overnight usage is high
Demand charges are significant
Backup power is critical
Time-of-use tariffs are extreme

Nowadays, most businesses choose to design a battery-ready solar system, allowing storage to be added later as prices in the Australian energy market decline.

Which System is Best for You? The Decision Behind the Panels

Now you might be wondering which solar system best fits your life.

We know every home needs a different solar story. So, beyond the numbers, choosing the right commercial solar system size is about confidence.

Panel Type Options

Monocrystalline solar Panels: These panels have the highest efficiency and are ideal when the roof or land space is limited.
Polycrystalline Solar Panels: They are also a strong choice for Australian businesses seeking a lower upfront cost and are satisfied with slightly reduced efficiency.
Bifacial Solar Panels: They are super-efficient as they generate power from both sides. They are best suited for ground-mounted systems or highly reflective surfaces.

Selecting the right panel type helps ensure your commercial solar system delivers maximum performance and long-term value, so choose wisely.

However, in large-scale commercial properties, business owners often have many concerns. For instance:

Making the wrong investment.
Disrupting operations during commercial solar installation.
Dealing with complex approvals.
Understanding long-term performance.

Keep in mind that a good, accredited solar partner doesn’t just sell you panels; they explain the “why” behind the system size, show realistic projections, and design around how your business actually operates.

Work with Cyanergy| Your Reputable Solar Installer

Well, in the end note, if you are still looking for the right commercial solar system size, honestly, there’s no one-size-fits-all answer.

Every Australian business is different. Whether a warehouse in Victoria, a winery in Queensland, or a medical centre in New South Wales will all have very different solar needs, even if their electricity bills look similar.

Choosing the right commercial solar system size ultimately comes down to understanding your energy usage, making proper use of roof space, and designing a system that fits your business for the long term.

When those pieces align, solar stops being a guessing game and becomes what it should be.

It’s a smart, reliable investment that works quietly in the background while your business gets on with what it does best.

For more informative content and to schedule a proper energy audit, contact Cyanergy today!

Our solar experts will answer all your questions, making the energy transition process hassle-free and faster.

Your Solution Is Just a Click Away

The post Choosing the Right Commercial Solar System Size for Business appeared first on Cyanergy.

Choosing the Right Commercial Solar System Size for Business

Renewable Energy

UK Awards 8.4 GW Offshore, US Allows Offshore Construction

Published

24 hours ago

January 20, 2026

Alice Rush

Weather Guard Lightning Tech

UK Awards 8.4 GW Offshore, US Allows Offshore Construction

Allen, Joel, Rosemary, and Yolanda cover major offshore wind developments on both sides of the Atlantic. In the US, Ørsted’s Revolution Wind won a court victory allowing construction to resume after the Trump administration’s suspension. Meanwhile, the UK awarded contracts for 8.4 gigawatts of new offshore capacity in the largest auction in European history, with RWE securing nearly 7 gigawatts. Plus Canada’s Nova Scotia announces ambitious 40 gigawatt offshore wind plans, and the crew discusses the ongoing Denmark-Greenland tensions with the US administration.

Sign up now for Uptime Tech News, our weekly newsletter on all things wind technology. This episode is sponsored by Weather Guard Lightning Tech. Learn more about Weather Guard’s StrikeTape Wind Turbine LPS retrofit. Follow the show on YouTube, Linkedin and visit Weather Guard on the web. And subscribe to Rosemary’s “Engineering with Rosie” YouTube channel here. Have a question we can answer on the show? Email us!

The Uptime Wind Energy Podcast brought to you by Strike Tape, protecting thousands of wind turbines from lightning damage worldwide. Visit strike tape.com. And now your hosts, Alan Hall, Rosemary Barnes, Joel Saxon and Yolanda Padron. Welcome to the Uptime Wind Energy Podcast. I’m Allen Hall, along with Yolanda, Joel and Rosie.

Boy, a lot of action in the US courts. And as you know, for weeks, American offshore wind has been holding its breath and a lot of people’s jobs are at stake right now. The Trump administration suspended, uh, five major projects on December 22nd, and still they’re still citing national security concerns.

Billions of dollars are really in balance here. Construction vessels for most of these. Sites are just doing nothing at the minute, but the courts are stepping in and Sted won a [00:01:00] key victory when the federal judge allowed its revolution wind project off the coast of Rhode Island to resume construction immediately.

So everybody’s excited there and it does sound like Osted is trying to finish that project as fast as they can. And Ecuador and Dominion Energy, which are two of the other bigger projects, are fighting similar battles. Ecuador is supposed to hear in the next couple of days as we’re recording. Uh, but the message is pretty clear from developers.

They have invested too much to walk away, and if they get an opportunity to wrap these projects up quickly. They are going to do it now. Joel, before the show, we were talking about vineyard wind and vineyard. Wind was on hold, and I think it, it may not even be on hold right now, I have to go back and look.

But when they were put on hold, uh, the question was, the turbines that were operating, were they able to continue operating? And the answer initially I thought was no. But it was yes, the, the turbines that were [00:02:00] producing power. We’re allowed to continue to produce powers. What was in the balance were the remaining turbines that were still being installed or, uh, being upgraded.

So there’s, there’s a lot going on right now, but it does seem like, and back to your earlier point, Joel, before we start talking and maybe you can discuss this, we, there is an offshore wind farm called Block Island really closely all these other wind farms, and it’s been there for four or five years at this point.

No one’s said anything about that wind farm.

Speaker: I think it’s been there, to be honest with you, since like 2016 or 17. It’s been there a long time. Is it that old? Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. So when we were talk, when we’ve been talking through and it gets lost in the shuffle and it shouldn’t, because that’s really the first offshore wind farm in the United States.

We keep talking about all these big, you know, utility scale massive things, but that is a utility scale wind farm as well. There’s fi, correct me if I’m wrong, Yolanda, is it five turbos or six? It’s five. Their decent sized turbines are sitting on jackets. They’re just, uh, they’re, they’re only a couple miles offshore.

They’re not way offshore. But throughout all of these issues that we’ve had, um, with [00:03:00] these injunctions and stopping construction and stopping this and reviewing permits and all these things, block Island has just been spinning, producing power, uh, for the locals there off the coast of Rhode Island. So we.

What were our, the question was is, okay, all these other wind farms that are partially constructed, have they been spinning? Are they producing power? And my mind goes to this, um, as a risk reduction effort. I wonder if, uh, the cable, if the cable lay timelines were what they were. Right. So would you now, I guess as a risk reduction effort, and this seems really silly to have to think about this.

If you have your offshore substation, was the, was the main export cable connected to some of these like revolution wind where they have the injunction right now? Was that export cable connected and were the inter array cables regularly connected to turbines and them coming online? Do, do, do, do, do. Like, it wasn’t like a COD, we turned the switch and we had to wait for all 62 turbines.

Right. So to our [00:04:00] knowledge and, and, uh, please reach out to any of us on LinkedIn or an email or whatever to our knowledge. The turbines that are in production have still have been spinning. It’s the construction activities that have been stopped, but now. Hey, revolution wind is 90% complete and they’re back out and running, uh, on construction activities as of today.

Speaker 2: It was in the last 48 hours. So this, this is a good sign because I think as the other wind farms go through the courts, they’re gonna essentially run through this, this same judge I that. Tends to happen because they have done all the research already. So you, you likely get the same outcome for all the other wind farms, although they have to go through the process.

You can’t do like a class action, at least that’s doesn’t appear to be in play at the minute. Uh, they’re all gonna have to go through this little bit of a process. But what the judge is saying essentially is the concern from the Department of War, and then the Department of Interior is. [00:05:00] Make believe. I, I don’t wanna frame it.

It’s not framed that way, the way it’s written. There’s a lot more legalistic terms about it. But it basically, they’re saying they tried to stop it before they didn’t get the result they wanted. The Trump administration didn’t get the result they wanted. So the Trump administration ramped it up by saying it was something that was classified in, in part of the Department of War.

The judge isn’t buying it. So the, the, the early action. I think what we initially talked about this, everybody, I think the early feeling was they’re trying to stop it, but the fact that they’re trying to stop it just because, and just start pulling permits is not gonna stand outta the court. And when they want to come back and do it again, they’re not likely to win.

If they would. Kept their ammunition dry and just from the beginning said it’s something classified as something defense related that Trump administration probably would’ve had a better shot at this. But now it just seems like everything’s just gonna lead down the pathway where all these projects get finished.

Speaker: Yeah, I think that specific judge probably was listening to the [00:06:00] Uptime podcast last week for his research. Um, listen to, to our opinions that we talked about here, saying that this is kind of all bs. It’s not gonna fly. Uh, but what we’re sitting at here is like Revolution Wind was, had the injunction against it.

Uh, empire Wind had an injunction again, but they were awaiting a similar ruling. So hopefully that’s actually supposed to go down today. That’s Wednesday. Uh, this is, so we’re recording this on Wednesday. Um, and then Dominion is, has, is suing as well, and their, uh, hearing is on Friday. In two, two days from now.

And I would expect, I mean, it’s the same, same judge, same piece of papers, like it’s going to be the same result. Some numbers to throw at this thing. Now, just so the listeners know the impact of this, uh, dominion for the Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind Project, they say that their pause in construction is costing them $5 million a day, and that is.

That’s a pretty round number. It’s a conservative number to be honest with you. For officer operations, how many vessels and how much stuff is out there? That makes sense. Yep. [00:07:00] 5 million. So $5 million a day. And that’s one of the wind farms. Uh, coastal, Virginia Wind Farm is an $11 billion project. With, uh, it’s like 176 turbines.

I think something to that, like it’s, it’s got enough power, it’s gonna have enough production out there to power up, like, uh, like 650,000 homes when it’s done. So there’s five projects suspended right now. I’m continuing with the numbers. Um, well, five, there’s four now. Revolution’s back running, right? So five and there’s four.

Uh, four still stopped. And of those five is 28. Billion dollars in combined capital at risk, right? So you can understand why some of these companies are worried, right? They’re this is, this is not peanuts. Um, so you saw a little bump in like Ted stock in the markets when this, this, uh, revolution wind, uh, injunction was stopped.

Uh, but. You also see that, uh, Moody’s is a credit [00:08:00] rating. They’ve lowered ORs, Ted’s um, rating from stable to negative, given that political risk.

Speaker 2: Well, if you haven’t been paying attention, wind energy O and m Australia 2026 is happening relatively soon. It’s gonna be February 17th and 18th. It’s gonna be at the Pullman Hotel downtown Melbourne.

And we are all looking forward to it. The, the roster and the agenda is, is nearly assembled at this point. Uh, we have a, a couple of last minute speakers, but uh, I’m looking at the agenda and like, wow, if you work in o and m or even are around wind turbines, this is the place to be in February. From my

Speaker: seat.

It’s pretty, it’s, it’s, it’s shaping up for pretty fun. My phone has just been inundated with text message and WhatsApp of when are you traveling? What are your dates looking forward to, and I wanna say this right, Rosie. Looking forward to Melvin. Did I get it? Did I do it okay.

Speaker 3: You know how to say it.

Speaker: So, so we’re, we’re really looking forward to, we’ve got a bunch of people traveling from around the [00:09:00] world, uh, to come and share their collective knowledge, uh, and learn from the Australians about how they’re doing things, what the, what the risks are, what the problems are, uh, really looking forward to the environment down there, like we had last year was very.

Collaborative, the conversations are flowing. Um, so we’re looking forward to it, uh, in a big way from our seats. Over here,

Speaker 2: we are announcing a lightning workshop, and that workshop will be answering all your lightning questions in regards to your turbines Now. Typically when we do this, it’s about $10,000 per seat, and this will be free as part of WMA 2026.

We’re gonna talk about some of the lightning physics, what’s actually happening in the field versus what the OEMs are saying and what the IEC specification indicates. And the big one is force majeure. A lot of operators are paying for damages that are well within the IEC specification, and we’ll explain.[00:10:00]

What that is all about and what you can do to save yourself literally millions of dollars. But that is only possible if you go to Woma 2020 six.com and register today because we’re running outta seats. Once they’re gone, they’re gone. But this is a great opportunity to get your lightning questions answered.

And Rosemary promised me that we’re gonna talk about Vestus turbines. Siemens turbines. GE Renova turbines. Nordex turbines. So if you have Nordex turbines, Sulan turbines, bring the turbine. Type, we’ll talk about it. We’ll get your questions answered, and the goal is that everybody at at Wilma 2026 is gonna go home and save themselves millions of dollars in 26 and millions of dollars in 27 and all the years after, because this Lightning workshop is going to take care of those really frustrating lightning questions that just don’t get answered.

We’re gonna do it right there. Sign up today.

Speaker 3: [00:11:00] You know what, I’m really looking forward to that session and especially ’cause I’ve got a couple of new staff or new-ish staff at, it’s a great way to get them up to speed on lightning. And I think that actually like the majority of people, even if you are struggling with lightning problems every day, I bet that there is a whole bunch that you could learn about the underlying physics of lightning.

And there’s not so many places to find that in the world. I have looked, um, for my staff training, where is the course that I can send them to, to understand all about lightning? I know when I started atm, I had a, an intro session, one-on-one with the, you know, chief Lightning guy there. That’s not so easy to come by, and this is the opportunity where you can get that and better because it’s information about every, every OEM and a bit of a better understanding about how it works so that you can, you know, one of the things that I find working with Lightning is a lot of force MA mature claims.

And then, um, the OEMs, they try and bamboozle you with this like scientific sounding talk. If you understand better, then you’ll be able to do better in those discussions. [00:12:00] So I would highly recommend attending if you can swing the Monday as well.

Speaker: If you wanna attend now and you’re coming to the events.

Reach out to, you can reach out to me directly because what we want to do now is collect, uh, as much information as possible about the specific turbine types of the, that the people in the room are gonna be responsible for. So we can tailor those messages, um, to help you out directly. So feel free to reach out to me, joel.saxo, SAXU m@wglightning.com and uh, we’ll be squared away and ready to roll on Monday.

I think that’s Monday the 16th.

Speaker 2: So while American offshore wind fights for survival in the courts, British offshore wind just had its biggest day ever. The United Kingdom awarded contracts for 8.4 gigawatts. That’s right. 8.4 gigawatts of new offshore wind capacity, the largest auction in European history.

Holy smokes guys. The price came in at about 91 pounds per megawatt hour, and that’s 2024 pounds. [00:13:00] Uh, and that’s roughly 40% cheaper than building a new. Gas plant Energy Secretary Ed Milliband called it a monumental step towards the country’s 2030 clean power goals and that it is, uh, critics say that prices are still higher than previous auctions, and one that the government faces challenges connecting all this new capacity to the grid, and they do, uh, transmission is a limiting factor here, but in terms of where the UK is headed.

Putting in gigawatts of offshore wind is going to disconnect them from a lot of need on the gas supply and other energy sources. It’s a massive auction round. This was way above what I remember being, uh. Talked about when we were in Scotland just a couple of weeks ago, Joel.

Speaker: Yeah, that’s what I was gonna say.

You know, when we were, when we were up with the, or E Catapult event, and we talked to a lot of the different organizations of their OWGP and um, you know, the course, the or e Catapult folks and, and, and a [00:14:00] few others, they were really excited about AR seven. They were like, oh, we’re, we’re so excited. It’s gonna come down, it’s gonna be great.

I didn’t expect these kind of numbers to come out of this thing. Right? ’cause we know that, um, they’ve got about, uh, the UK currently has about. 16 and a half or so gigawatts of offshore wind capacity, um, with, you know, they got a bunch under construction, it’s like 11 under construction, but their goal is to have 43 gigawatts by 2030.

So,

Speaker 2: man.

Speaker: Yeah. And, and when 2030, put this into Conte Con context now. This is one of our first podcasts of the new year. That’s only four years away. Right. It’s soon. And, and to, to be able to do that. So you’re saying they got 16, they go some round numbers. They got 16 now. Pro producing 11 in the pipe, 11 being constructed.

So get that to 27. That’s another 16 gigawatts of wind. They want, they that are not under construction today that they want to have completed in the next four years. That is a monumental effort now. We know that there’s some grid grid complications and connection [00:15:00] requirements and things that will slow that down, but just thinking about remove the grid idea, just thinking about the amount of effort to get those kind of large capital projects done in that short of timeline.

Kudos to the UK ’cause they’re unlocking a lot of, um, a lot of private investment, a lot of effort to get these things, but they’re literally doing the inverse of what we’re doing in the United States right now.

Speaker 2: There would be about a total of 550, 615 ish megawatt turbines in the water. That does seem doable though.

The big question is who’s gonna be providing those turbines? That’s a. Massive order. Whoever the salesperson is involved in that transaction is gonna be very happy. Well, the interesting thing here

Speaker: too is the global context of assets to be able to deliver this. We just got done talking about the troubles at these wind farms in the United States.

As soon as these. Wind farms are finished. There’s not more of them coming to construction phase shortly, right? So all of these assets, all these jack up vessels, these installation vessels, these specialized cable lay vessels, they [00:16:00]can, they can fuel up and freaking head right across, back across the Atlantic and start working on these things.

If the pre all of the engineering and, and the turbine deliveries are ready to roll the vessels, uh, ’cause that you, that, you know, two years ago that was a problem. We were all. Forecasting. Oh, we have this forecasted problem of a shortage of vessels and assets to be able to do installs. And now with the US kind of, basically, once we’re done with the wind farms, we’re working on offshore, now we’re shutting it down.

It frees those back up, right? So the vessels will be there, be ready to roll. You’ll have people coming off of construction projects that know what’s going on, right? That, that know how to, to work these things. So the, the people, the vessels that will be ready to roll it is just, can we get the cables, the mono piles, the turbines and the cells, the blades, all done in time, uh, to make this happen And, and.

I know I’m rambling now, but after leaving that or e Catapult event and talking to some of the people, um, that are supporting those [00:17:00] funds over there, uh, being injected from the, uh, the government, I think that they’ve got

Speaker 2: the, the money flowing over there to get it done too. The big winner in the auction round was RWE and they.

Almost seven gigawatts. So that was a larger share of the 8.4 gigawatts. RWE obviously has a relationship with Vestus. Is that where this is gonna go? They’re gonna be, uh, installing vestus turbines. And where were those tur turbines? As I was informed by Scottish gentlemen, I won’t name names. Uh, will those turbines be built in the uk?

Speaker 3: It’s a lot. It’s a, it’s one of the biggest challenges with, um, the supply chain for wind energy is that it just is so lumpy. So, you know, you get, um, uh. You get huge eight gigawatts all at once and then you have years of, you know, just not much. Not much, not much going on. I mean, for sure they’re not gonna be just building [00:18:00] eight gigawatts worth of, um, wind turbines in the UK in the next couple of years because they would also have to build the capacity to manufacture that and, and then would wanna be building cocks every couple of years for, you know, the next 10 or 20 years.

So, yeah, of course they’re gonna be manufacturing. At facilities around the world and, and transporting them. But, um, yeah, I just, I don’t know. It’s one of the things that I just. Constantly shake my head about is like, how come, especially when projects are government supported, when plans are government supported, why, why can’t we do a better job of smoothing things out so that you can have, you know, for example, local manufacturing because everyone knows that they’ve got a secure pipeline.

It’s just when the government’s involved, it should be possible.

Speaker 2: At least the UK has been putting forth some. Pretty big numbers to support a local supply chain. When we were over in Scotland, they announced 300 million pounds, and that was just one of several. That’s gonna happen over the next year. There will be a [00:19:00] near a billion pounds be put into the supply chain, which will make a dramatic difference.

But I think you’re right. Also, it’s, they’re gonna ramp up and then they, it’s gonna ramp down. They have to find a way to feed the global marketplace at some point, be because the technology and the people are there. It’s a question of. How do you sustain it for a 20, 30 year period? That’s a different question.

Speaker 3: I do agree that the UK is doing a better job than probably anybody else. Um, it it’s just that they, the way that they have chosen to organize these auctions and the government support and the planning just means that they have that, that this is the perfect conditions to, you know. Make a smooth rollout and you know, take care of all this.

And so I just a bit frustrated that they’re not doing more. But you are right that they’re doing the best probably

Speaker 4: once all of these are in service though, aren’t there quite a bit of aftermarket products that are available in the UK

Speaker: on the service then? I think there’s more.

Speaker 4: Which, I mean, that’s good. A good part of it, right?

Speaker: If we’re talking Vestas, so, so let’s just round this [00:20:00] up too. If we’re talking vest’s production for blades in Europe, you have two facilities in Denmark that build V 2 36 blades. You have one facility in Italy that builds V 2 36 blades, Taiwan, but they build them for the APAC market. Of course. Um, Poland had a, has one on hold right now, V 2 36 as well.

Well, they just bought that factory from LM up in Poland also. That’s, but I think that’s for onshore term, onshore blades. Oh, yes, sure. And then Scotland has, they have the proposed facility in, in Laith. That there, that’s kind of on hold as well. So if that one’s proposed, I’m sure, hey, if we get a big order, they’ll spin that up quick because they’ll get, I am, I would imagine someone o you know, one of the, one of the funds to spool up a little bit of money, boom, boom, boom.

’cause they’re turning into local jobs. Local supply

Speaker 2: chain does this then create the condition where a lot of wind turbines, like when we were in Scotland, a lot of those wind turbines are. Gonna reach 20 years old, maybe a little bit older here over the next five years where they will [00:21:00] need to be repowered upgraded, whatever’s gonna happen there.

If you had internal manufacturing. In country that would, you’d think lower the price to go do that. That will be a big effort just like it is in Spain right now.

Speaker: The trouble there though too, is if you’re using local content in, in the uk, the labor prices are so much

Speaker 2: higher. I’m gonna go back to Rosie’s point about sort of the way energy is sold worldwide.

UK has high energy prices, mostly because they are buying energy from other countries and it’s expensive to get it in country. So yes, they can have higher labor prices and still be lower cost compared to the alternatives. It, it’s not the same equation in the US versus uk. It’s, it’s totally different economics, but.

If they get enough power generation, which I think the UK will, they’re gonna offload that and they’re already doing it now. So you can send power to France, send power up [00:22:00] north. There’s ways to sell that extra power and help pay for the system you built. That would make a a lot of sense. It’s very similar to what the Saudis have done for.

Dang near 80 years, which is fill tankers full of oil and sell it. This is a little bit different that we’re just sending electrons through the water to adjacent European countries. It does seem like a plan. I hope they’re sending ’em through a cable in the water and not just into the water. Well, here’s the thing that was concerning early on.

They’re gonna turn it into hydrogen and put it on a ship and send it over to France. Like that didn’t make any sense at all. Uh. Cable’s on the way to do it. Right.

Speaker: And actually, Alan, you and I did have a conversation with someone not too long ago about that triage market and how the project where they put that, that that trans, that HVDC cable next to the tunnel it, and it made and it like paid for itself in a year or something.

Was that like, that they didn’t wanna really tell us like, yeah, it paid for itself in a year. Like it was a, the ROI was like on a, like a $500 million [00:23:00]project or something. That’s crazy. Um, but yeah, that’s the same. That’s, that is, I would say part of the big push in the uk there is, uh, then they can triage that power and send it, send it back across.

Um, like I think Nord Link is the, the cable between Peterhead and Norway, right? So you have, you have a triage market going across to the Scandinavian countries. You have the triage market going to mainland eu. Um, and in when they have big time wind, they’re gonna be able to do it. So when you have an RWE.

Looking at seven gigawatts of, uh, possibility that they just, uh, just procured. Game on. I love it. I think it’s gonna be cool. I’m, I’m happy to see it blow

Speaker 2: up. Canada is getting serious about offshore wind and international developers are paying attention. Q Energy, France and its South Korean partner. Hawa Ocean have submitted applications to develop wind projects off Nova Scotia’s Coast.

The province has big ambitions. Premier, Tim Houston wants to license enough. Offshore [00:24:00] wind to produce 40 gigawatts of power far more than Nova Scotia would ever need. Uh, the extra electricity could supply more than a quarter of Canada’s total demand. If all goes according to plan, the first turbines could be spinning by 2035.

Now, Joel. Yeah, some of this power will go to Canada, but there’s a huge market in the United States also for this power and the capacity factor up in Nova Scotia offshore is really good. Yeah. It’s uh, it

Speaker: is simply, it’s stellar, right? Uh, that whole No, Nova Scotia, new Brunswick, Newfoundland, that whole e even Maritimes of Canada.

The wind, the wind never stops blowing, right? Like I, I go up there every once in a while ’cause my wife is from up there and, uh, it’s miserable sometimes even in the middle of summer. Um, so the, the wind resource is fantastic. The, it, it is a boom or will be a boom for the Canadian market, right? There’re always [00:25:00] that maritime community, they’re always looking for, for, uh, new jobs.

New jobs, new jobs. And this is gonna bring them to them. Um, one thing I wanna flag here is when I know this, when this announcement came out. And I reached out to Tim Houston’s office to try to get him on the podcast, and I haven’t gotten a response yet. Nova Scotia. So if someone that’s listening can get ahold of Tim Houston, we’d love to talk to him about the plans for Nova Scotia.

Um, but, but we see that just like we see over overseas, the triage market of we’re making power, we can sell it. You know, we balance out the prices, we can sell it to other places. From our seats here we’ve been talking about. The electricity demand on the east coast of the United States for, for years and how it is just climbing, climbing, climbing, especially AI data centers.

Virginia is a hub of this, right? They need power and we’re shooting ourselves in the foot, foot for offshore wind, plus also canceling pipelines and like there’s no extra generation going on there except for some solar plants where you can squeeze ’em in down in the Carolinas and whatnot. [00:26:00] There is a massive play here for the Canadians to be able to HVD see some power down to us.

Speaker 2: The offshore conditions off the coast of Nova Scotia are pretty rough, and the capacity factor being so high makes me think of some of the Brazilian wind farms where the capacity factor is over 50%. It’s amazing down there, but one of the outcomes of that has been early turbine problems. And I’m wondering if the Nova Scotia market is going to demand a different kind of turbine that is specifically built for those conditions.

It’s cold, really cold. It’s really windy. There’s a lot of moisture in the air, right? So the salt is gonna be bad. Uh, and then the sea life too, right? There’s a lot of, uh, sea life off the coast of the Nova Scotia, which everybody’s gonna be concerned about. Obviously, as this gets rolling. How do we think about this?

And who’s gonna be the manufacturer of turbines for Canada? Is it gonna be Nordics? Well,

Speaker: let’s start from the ground up there. So from the or ground up, it’s, how about sea [00:27:00] floor up? Let’s start from there. There is a lot of really, really, if you’ve ever worked in the offshore world, the o offshore, maritime Canadian universities that focus on the, on offshore construction, they produce some of the best engineers for those markets, right?

So if you go down to Houston, Texas where there’s offshore oil and gas companies and engineering companies everywhere, you run into Canadians from the Maritimes all over the place ’cause they’re really good at what they do. Um, they are developing or they have developed offshore oil and gas platforms.

Off of the coast of Newfoundland and up, up in that area. And there’s some crazy stuff you have to compete with, right? So you have icebergs up there. There’s no icebergs in the North Atlantic that like, you know, horn seats, internet cruising through horn C3 with icebergs. So they’ve, they’ve engineered and created foundations and things that can deal with that, those situations up there.

But you also have to remember that you’re in the Canadian Shield, which is, um, the Canadian Shield is a geotechnical formation, right? So it’s very rocky. Um, and it’s not [00:28:00] like, uh, the other places where we’re putting fixed bottom wind in where you just pound the piles into the sand. That’s not how it’s going to go, uh, up in Canada there.

So there’s some different engineering that’s going to have to take place for the foundations, but like you said, Alan Turbine specific. It blows up there. Right. And we have seen onshore, even in the United States, when you get to areas that have high capacity burning out main bearings, burning out generators prematurely because the capacity factor is so high and those turbines are just churning.

Um, I, I don’t know if any of the offshore wind turbine manufacturers are adjusting any designs specifically for any markets. I, I just don’t know that. Um, but they may run into some. Some tough stuff up there, right? You might run into some, some overspeeding main bearings and some maintenance issues, specifically in the wintertime ’cause it is nasty up there.

Speaker 2: Well, if you have 40 gigawatts of capacity, you have several thousand turbines, you wanna make sure really [00:29:00] sure that the blade design is right, that the gearbox is right if you have a gearbox, and that everything is essentially over-designed, heated. You can have deicing systems on it, I would assume that would be something you would be thinking about.

You do the same thing for the monopoles. The whole assembly’s gotta be, have a, just a different thought process than a turbine. You would stick off the coast of Germany. Still rough conditions at times, but not like Nova Scotia.

Speaker: One, one other thing there to think about too that we haven’t dealt with, um.

In such extreme levels is the, the off the coast of No. Nova Scotia is the Bay of Fundee. If you know anything about the Bay of Fundee, it is the highest tide swings in the world. So the tide swings at certain times of the year, can be upwards of 10 meters in a 12 hour period in this area of, of the ocean.

And that comes with it. Different time, different types of, um, one of the difficult things for tide swings is it creates subsid currents. [00:30:00] Subsid currents are, are really, really, really bad, nasty. Against rocks and for any kind of cable lay activities and longevity of cable lay scour protection around turbines and stuff like that.

So that’s another thing that subsea that we really haven’t spoke about.

Speaker 3: You know, I knew when you say Bay Bay of funding, I’m like, I know that I have heard that place before and it’s when I was researching for. Tidal power videos for Tidal Stream. It’s like the best place to, to generate electricity from.

Yeah, from Tidal Stream. So I guess if you are gonna be whacking wind turbines in there anyway, maybe you can share some infrastructure and Yeah. Eca a little bit, a little bit more from your, your project.

Speaker 2: that wraps up another episode of the Uptime Wind Energy Podcast. If today’s discussion sparked any questions or ideas. We’d love to hear from you. Just reach out to us on LinkedIn and don’t forget to subscribe so you never miss an episode.

And if you found value in today’s conversation, please leave us a review. It really helps other wind energy professionals discover the show For Rosie, Yolanda and Joel, I’m Alan Hall, and we’ll see you here next week on the Uptime [00:36:00] Wind Energy Podcast.