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Algeria, Tunisia, Austria, Germany and Italy have agreed to construct a hydrogen pipeline to bring clean fuel generated with renewable energy in North Africa to the European Union, in a move hailed as one of the bloc’s “most important renewable energy projects”.
But analysis of Algeria and Tunisia’s green hydrogen strategies reveals that neither country is likely to be in a position to export the fuel in any meaningful quantity when the pipeline is due to start operating in 2030.
Experts told Climate Home News that despite the hydrogen hype, there are serious challenges for North Africa to become a major exporter of green hydrogen to the EU by 2030. Some question whether the pipeline should be developed at all.
Last week, ministers from each country along with Tunisia’s ambassador to Italy met in Rome where they confirmed their intentions to build the SoutH2 Corridor.
The first-of-its kind hydrogen pipeline, 3,500-4,000 kilometres long, would run under the Mediterranean Sea. It aims to connect hydrogen production centres in Algeria and Tunisia – which have yet to be built – to the Italian island of Sicily and consumer hubs in Austria and Germany by repurposing existing gas infrastructure along 65% of the route.
The corridor “is crucial for the development of an interconnected and diversified hydrogen backbone” in the EU, the consortium of European and Algerian companies developing the project says on its website.
Green hydrogen ramp-up
The EU is betting on importing large amounts of green hydrogen to wean highly polluting sectors and hard-to-electrify industries such as steel production, fertilisers and long-distance transport off climate-wrecking fossil fuels.
With its abundant sunshine, vast renewable energy potential and relative proximity to Europe, EU officials hope to tap into North Africa’s resources and secure green hydrogen supplies.
“The Southern Hydrogen Corridor is one of the largest and most important renewable energy projects of our time,” Philipp Nimmermann, Germany’s State Secretary for the Ministry for Economic Affairs and Climate Action, said in a statement.
“We can use North Africa’s immense potential for renewable energies, advance the hydrogen ramp-up in Germany and support the EU’s climate targets,” he added.
According to the project consortium, the pipeline, when fully operational, could deliver more than 40% of the EU’s target to import 10 million tonnes of green hydrogen by 2030.
But Algeria and Tunisia anticipate large-scale green hydrogen production to be at least a decade away, calling into question plans for exports in the next five years.
Adrian Odenweller, a researcher at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), told Climate Home that the EU should “certainly not count on the delivery” of green hydrogen from Algeria and Tunisia any time soon.
Odenweller said he does “not expect to see any hydrogen imports via [the SoutH2 Corridor] by the year 2030” and urged policy makers to interpret project announcements “with caution”.
“Green hydrogen production projects have a poor track record and often get delayed. I would expect this to be even worse for massive infrastructure projects such as pipelines that require international coordination,” he said.
Mismatched expectations
Green hydrogen is produced by splitting water into hydrogen and oxygen using renewable electricity – as opposed to blue or grey hydrogen, which uses gas.
But transporting green hydrogen is a logistical challenge. Channelling it in a gaseous form through a pipeline is generally cheaper and more efficient that liquefying it to transport it on ships but requires relative proximity to where the fuel is consumed.
Algeria and Tunisia do not currently produce green hydrogen. Algeria – a top gas exporter – and Tunisia generate nearly all of their electricity from gas. The share of solar power in electricity generation is growing but accounted for less than 1% in Algeria in 2023 and 4% in Tunisia the same year, according to BloombergNEF data.
Over the last two years, both countries have released green hydrogen strategies. But neither country foresees large-scale hydrogen production until the mid-2030s.
By 2030, the SouthH2 Corridor will have capacity to import 4 million tonnes of hydrogen per year into the EU. But Algeria and Tunisia expect to have combined capacity to export around 330,000 tonnes of hydrogen – or 8% of the pipeline’s capacity – by then.
Algeria’s hydrogen strategy suggests it could produce around 30,700 tonnes of green hydrogen by 2030. The country foresees production of more than 1 million tonnes from 2040. Tunisia plans to export 300,000 tonnes of green hydrogen to the EU by 2030 and 1.6 million tonnes by 2040.
Neither the Algerian nor Tunisian governments responded to requests for comment.
‘Reality check’
According to data from the International Energy Agency (IEA), less than 1% of the 97 million tonnes of hydrogen produced globally in 2023 was green or “low emissions” hydrogen.
Growth in the sector has been slow, with many projects struggling to move beyond very early stages of development. The IEA recently found that investments in electrolysers and green hydrogen have lagged because of uncertainty over costs, demand and regulatory frameworks.
A recent paper published in Nature Energy by PIK found a “huge gap between [hydrogen] announcements and actual deployment”. They tracked almost 200 projects over three years and determined that only 7% of the capacity announced was completed on schedule.
In 2024, the EU’s own auditors called for “a reality check” on its green hydrogen production and import targets, describing them as “overly ambitious”. But the EU Commission said it stood by the targets despite the challenges. The Commission declined to respond to Climate Home’s questions on the SoutH2 Corridor.
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Abdurahman Alsulaiman, from the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, argued that the EU’s hydrogen import target is “highly ambitious” but underpinned by a sound political calculation.
“As more details about financial support, trade economics, and standardisation become available to investors, the target will become more of a reality rather than just an ambition,” he told Climate Home. It is also placing “urgency “ on potential production hubs such as North Africa even though “the economics of the green hydrogen trade are still at a very nascent stage”, he added.
Diverting energy and water away from needs
But others have questioned whether Algeria and Tunisia should use clean electricity to produce hydrogen for export rather than to meet their own energy needs.
“Instead of planning to export green hydrogen to Europe, North African countries should focus on using domestically produced hydrogen to decarbonise their own high energy-intensive industries or increasing their share of renewables in power generation,” Ana Maria Jaller-Makarewicz, of the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, told Climate Home.
Tunisia already struggles with energy shortages and is dependent on gas and electricity imports from Algeria to meet its growing electricity needs, said Saber Ammar, a Tunisian researcher at the Amsterdam-based Transnational Institute think-tank.
The EU is pushing for a green hydrogen economy because “they dominate the [hydrogen] value chains and technologies” and can outsource all “the socio-environmental costs to the peripheries”, he said.
Using scarce renewable electricity and even scarcer water resources to produce green hydrogen for Europe “is not only a paradoxical and foolish investment but it also underscores the political hegemony at play”, he added.
Coal-reliant South African provinces falling behind on just transition
Drought-stricken Tunisia and Algeria are already experiencing water shortages and climate change is likely to exacerbate water scarcity in the region.
Former Algerian parliamentarian Nadjib Drouiche, a senior researcher in desalination and water policy, supports Algeria’s move to become a hydrogen-exporting nation.
However, North Africa’s “water scarcity, exacerbated by climate change, necessitates a cautious approach,” he told Climate Home.
“Prioritising domestic water needs, implementing sustainable water management strategies like efficient desalination, wastewater reuse and water conservation… are crucial before large-scale green hydrogen production for export can be considered,” he emphasised.
(Reporting by Sacha Shaw; editing by Chloé Farand)
The post EU backs North Africa hydrogen pipeline, but is it a green dream? appeared first on Climate Home News.
EU backs North Africa hydrogen pipeline, but is it a green dream?
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An older teaching about land acknowledgement
As I have come to understand the spirit and intention of land acknowledgement, I often return to fond memories of my grandmother and her words of wisdom. She taught that the health of the places we call home comes first, because the wellbeing of the people depends on it.
In her teaching, land acknowledgement began with the land. Long before it became a paragraph read at the start of a meeting, it was a way of recognizing a homeland: its waters, its species, its seasons, and the spirit that revealed whether the place was well.
Her teaching echoes a practice found across many Indigenous Nations. Haudenosaunee gatherings, for example, have long opened with the Ohén:ton Karihwatéhkwen, the Thanksgiving Address, often translated as “the words that come before all else.” The speaker greets and gives thanks to the people, the earth, the waters, the plants, the animals, the winds, the sun, the moon and the stars. Only after everything that sustains life has been acknowledged does the gathering turn to its own business.
That order changes what an acknowledgement is for. Its purpose was to share the story of a place with neighbours and to draw them into the work of tending it. People entered the story second, as the ones responsible for what had just been named.
Understood this way, an acknowledgement does more than open a meeting. It asks us to reconsider where we stand, and what we owe the ground beneath us.
Nations among nations
In her teaching, people are one nation among many. The salmon are a nation. So are the cedars, the bison, the medicine plants, and the pollinators. Each belongs to a place, carries its own responsibilities, and offers gifts no other nation can give.
This idea of kinship runs through many Indigenous philosophies. The phrase “all my relations,” heard in ceremonies and gatherings across Turtle Island, is a reminder that family extends beyond people to the animals, plants, waters and lands that make life possible. Some Indigenous languages carry the same understanding in their grammar, speaking of many plants, animals and natural forces as living beings rather than objects.
Sovereignty, understood through this relationship, is a kind of standing more than a form of control. Each nation belongs fully to its place and carries its share of that place’s life. No nation thrives alone, and none thrives by taking over the whole.
The land is also the source of instruction. Over generations, people watched how a river valley or a stretch of prairie kept itself well: who arrived when, who fed whom, and how much could be taken before the giving stopped. In my grandmother’s telling, those observations became instructions, and those instructions helped shape law and protocol. They guided when to harvest, where to camp, how to enter a neighbour’s territory, and what was owed in return.
Indigenous legal scholars today often describe this as law that comes from the land itself, learned by watching how living systems sustain one another. A plainer name for it is knowing how to live somewhere.
The host and the guest
One of the clearest teachings in this understanding of the world is the relationship between host and guest. My grandmother invited us to recognize that relationship in the lives of plants and animals.
A host prepares the place before anyone arrives. A beaver family dams a stream, and the pond becomes a home for fish, frogs, birds and plants. A fallen tree becomes a nurse log, feeding the next generation of seedlings as it returns to the soil.
A host offers first. A flowering plant sets out nectar. A berry bush ripens fruit. These provisions come in their own season, not whenever a visitor happens to want them.
A host also makes its presence known. Birdsong, scent and the marks left along a trail tell newcomers that a place is already inhabited. The visitor does not arrive in an empty world.
The guest has responsibilities too. A guest attends to the season and to what the place can offer. A guest does not assume that everything within reach is theirs to take. A guest leaves something that helps sustain the relationship.
A bee takes nectar and carries pollen. Read through this teaching, that exchange offers an image of visiting well: receiving a gift while helping the host continue its life.
Many Indigenous harvesting protocols carry the same ethic into daily practice: ask before taking, take only what is needed, offer thanks, and leave enough for others and for the plant or animal to recover.
None of this suggests that every relationship in nature is peaceful or generous. These are ways of seeing responsibilities that people can learn to carry.
Everyone is both
No being is only a host or only a guest.
A tree makes room for other life while depending on soil, water, sunlight, fungi, and relationships beyond itself. People, too, may welcome others into their homes while remaining dependent on the larger homeland that sustains them.
The distinction between host and guest is therefore about roles, not ranks. Everyone receives. Everyone has something to give.
The question is whether the exchange sustains the place.
A visitor who takes without restraint leaves less for those who come next. A host who neglects the place has less to offer. Both have responsibilities, and neither can fulfil them alone.
This is the heart of reciprocity, a principle found across Indigenous philosophies: relationships stay healthy when gifts move in both directions. The Haudenosaunee teaching of the seventh generation extends that exchange across time, asking that decisions made today leave the place well for those not yet born.
Mutual benefit begins here, with the recognition that different beings carry different gifts and obligations.
What people carry forward
My grandmother’s teaching connects these relationships to the ways people meet their neighbours.
The host prepares a place, offers food and rest, and explains where the visitor has arrived. The guest makes themselves known, explains why they have come, listens to the terms of the visit, and brings something in return. The gift may be material. It may also be labour, knowledge, news, or a commitment to help.
Nations around the Great Lakes carried this ethic into treaty. The Dish with One Spoon, an agreement among the Haudenosaunee, Anishinaabe and allied Nations, describes shared hunting grounds as a single dish. Everyone eats from it with one spoon, takes only what they need, leaves enough for others, and keeps the dish clean. The Two Row Wampum, between the Haudenosaunee and European newcomers, shows two vessels travelling side by side on the same river, each keeping its own ways and neither steering the other.
In this understanding, acknowledgement is more than naming the people associated with a territory. It is learning enough about a homeland to behave responsibly within it.
Whose home is this? What sustains it? What laws and agreements guide our presence? What can we receive, and what must we return?
These questions make acknowledgement a relationship rather than a recital.
They also make it diplomatic. A guest who recognizes the host’s homeland recognizes that they have entered a place with its own relationships and responsibilities. A host who welcomes the guest makes room for an encounter governed by those relationships.
Neither arrives without standing. Neither arrives without obligations.
Beginning with place
I write from the shores of the Bay of Quinte. Here, the teaching asks me to begin with the water, the shoreline, and the life they sustain. Before I describe myself, I must attend to where I am.
That does not make people or history less important. It places them within the homeland that gives them meaning. The people, their laws, their agreements, and their responsibilities all belong to the place.
In a time of longer fire seasons, troubled waters, and uncertainty about what the next season will bring, this teaching asks something difficult and useful of us: pay attention before you speak.
An acknowledgement cannot tell the story of a place if the speaker has stopped noticing it.
The land came first. Beginning there again means learning to name what sustains us, and accepting that what sustains us also asks something of us.
By Rye Karonhiowanen Barberstock
Photo by Andrik Langfield on Unsplash
The post The Land Came First appeared first on Indigenous Climate Hub.
Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from fossil fuels and cement are projected to fall by around 0.4% in 2026 to 38.2bn tonnes of CO2 (GtCO2), according to new figures from the Global Carbon Project.
This guest post is by:
- Dr Zeke Hausfather, Carbon Brief’s climate science contributor
- Prof Pierre Friedlingstein, chair of mathematical modelling of climate systems at the University of Exeter and part of the Global Carbon Project team.
Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from fossil fuels and cement are projected to fall by around 0.4% in 2026 to 38.2bn tonnes of CO2 (GtCO2), according to new figures from the Global Carbon Project.
The 21st edition of the annual “global carbon budget” report, published today, says that this small decline is largely due to a 1.9% drop in emissions from oil and the energy shock triggered by the Iran conflict and the closure of the strait of Hormuz.
Emissions from coal continue to increase slightly.
The Global Carbon Project’s projections for fossil fuel and cement CO2 emissions in 2026 are preliminary, with a range that spans a fall of -1.5% to a rise of +0.6%.
This means a small increase in emissions can not be ruled out.
Emissions from land-use change, such as deforestation, are projected to rise in 2026.
This is primarily driven by peat fires and forest degradation in south-east Asia and is linked to the development of a strong El Niño event this year.
As a result, total CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and land use are projected to reach a record high of 43.3GtCO2 in 2026 – marginally above 42.8GtCO2 in 2025.
Research published alongside the report by the same team in Nature Climate Change finds that the growth in solar, wind and electric vehicles (EVs) now offsets around two-thirds of the emissions that would otherwise come from rising energy demand.
However, the deployment of these technologies is not yet enough to push global emissions into a sustained decline, according to the study.
The 2026 global carbon budget report also estimates that:
- Fossil emissions are projected to fall in China (-0.9%), the US (-1.3%) and the EU (-1.5%) in 2026, but rise by 4.4% in India.
- Oil emissions are projected to fall in every major region, with the largest drop in China (-4.6%).
- Land-use emissions averaged 4.9GtCO2 per year over 2016-25, around 21% lower than the decade before.
- Total CO2 emissions (fossil and land-use) grew by an average 0.3% per year over the past decade (2016-25), compared with 1.7% per year over the decade before.
- The remaining carbon budget to limit warming to 1.5C is 150GtCO2, or less than four years of current emissions.
- The land sink in 2025 was the highest on record, rebounding after being weakened during the 2023-24 El Niño. The current El Niño is expected to weaken the land sink in 2027.
- The concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere is set to reach 427.7 parts per million (ppm) in 2026, 54% above pre-industrial levels.
(For more on previous editions of the Global Carbon Project’s annual report, see Carbon Brief’s coverage in 2025, 2024, 2023 and 2022.)
Total emissions edge up as land-use emissions rise
Total global CO2 emissions, which combines fossil fuels and land-use change, are projected to reach a record high of 43.3GtCO2 in 2026, up from 42.8GtCO2 in 2025.
The increase in 2026 comes entirely from a projected rise in land-use emissions, which are more challenging to estimate than fossil emissions.
(The global carbon budget groups emissions from fossil fuels and cement production as “fossil emissions”. Carbon Brief follows this convention throughout this piece.)
If land-use emissions had stayed at 2025 levels, total emissions would have fallen slightly in 2026 to around 42.6GtCO2.
Each edition of the global carbon budget updates the historical record as new data and methods become available. The chart below shows total emissions in this year’s budget compared with the five previous editions.
This year’s estimates of historical fossil emissions are around 0.3GtCO2 per year higher than in last year’s budget.
This is largely because the report now estimates a smaller “cement carbonation” sink in the wake of research published this year in Communications Sustainability. In other words, it estimates that cement is able to slowly reabsorb less CO2 over its lifetime than previously thought.
Estimates of land-use emissions have also been revised, including a spike in 2018 – visible in the chart above – linked to updated cropland data for Colombia.
The updated numbers show that total emissions have grown by 0.3% per year over the past decade (2016-25), compared with 1.7% per year over 2006-15.
Fossil emissions grew about 0.9% per year in the past decade, compared with 1.9% the decade before. Over the same period, land-use emissions have declined.
While the slowdown reflects real progress, a plateau in emissions is still a long way from the rapid declines needed to reach net-zero emissions and stabilise global temperatures.
With human-caused warming reaching 1.37C above pre-industrial levels (1850-1900) in 2025, the report estimates that the remaining carbon budget to limit warming to 1.5C, with a 50% chance, is 150GtCO2 from the start of 2027. That is less than four years of 2026 emissions.
Meanwhile, the budgets for 1.7C and 2C are 510GtCO2 and 1,035GtCO2, respectively – or around 12 and 24 years of current emissions.
Fossil emissions made up around 88% of total CO2 emissions over the past decade, with land-use change making up the remaining 12%.
This is a marked change from the first half of the 20th century, when land-use emissions were larger than those from fossil fuels.
The figure below shows global emissions, split into fossil and land-use components.
Global per-capita fossil emissions peaked in the early 2010s and have since slightly declined. At around 4.6 tonnes per person in 2026, they are about 4% below that peak.
It is worth noting that this global average hides very large differences between countries. For example, 2025 per-capita emissions in India are only 2.2 tonnes, compared with 14.5 tonnes in the US.
