Welcome to Carbon Brief’s DeBriefed.
An essential guide to the week’s key developments relating to climate change.
This week
Biden’s farewell
HEAVY-HEARTED HANDOVER: Outgoing US president Joe Biden used his final televised speech from the Oval Office to issue warnings about climate change and social media disinformation, BBC News reported. The Democrat pointed to “powerful forces” with “unchecked influence” set on “eliminat[ing]” the steps his government had taken to tackle climate change. This came after a separate valedictory address on Monday – covered by NPR – where Biden called on Donald Trump to carry forward his work on climate.
TRUMP LOOMS: Chris Wright – Trump’s pick to head the US Department of Energy – told senators at a confirmation hearing that he would support all forms of energy, including wind and solar power, and that he believed climate change was a “global challenge that we need to solve”, the New York Times reported. This came after the US Supreme Court said it would not hear an appeal from oil and gas companies trying to block climate lawsuits, according to the Associated Press.
Tragedy in Los Angeles
GRIM RECORDS: As the Los Angeles wildfires continue to burn, officials have confirmed that the death toll has risen to 25, the Los Angeles Times reported. Meanwhile, Al Jazeera noted that the Eaton fire is now the “most destructive and deadliest” wildfire in southern California’s history, while the Palisades fire is the “second most destructive”. Carbon Brief covered the causes, impacts and political and media response to the wildfires.
CLIMATE TO BLAME: A rapid attribution study found that climate change was responsible for around 25% of the “fuel” available for the fires, according to CNN. The research – carried out by scientists at the University of California, Los Angeles – said the fires have been “larger and burned hotter than they would have in a world without planet-warming fossil fuel pollution”.
MYTHS SPREAD: As the fires continued to burn, prominent right-wing figures spread “bigoted criticism” about the response to – and cause of – the fires, according to the Guardian, including narratives blaming the fire department’s diversity and inclusion initiatives. France 24 reported that California governor Gavin Newsom accused Elon Musk – leading shareholder of Twitter and Trump confidante – of spreading “lies”.
Around the world
- ZERO MOVEMENT: The Net Zero Asset Managers (NZAM) initiative suspended all activities after investment giant Blackrock withdrew from the voluntary group last week, reported the Times.
- GRID SPLURGE: Bloomberg reported that China State Grid – the nation’s “largest” power network operator – is gearing up to spend a record 650bn yuan ($89bn) this year, as it looks to “keep pace with surging renewable generation”.
- DRIED-UP RIVERS: The Guardian explained how a “historic” drought in Suriname’s interior has dried up rivers, triggered food and water shortages, and disrupted communities’ access to transport, health care and education.
- BP LAYOFFS: The fossil fuel giant BP announced plans to cut 4,700 jobs, or 5% of its workforce, in a bid to “save costs” and “revive” its share price, reported the Financial Times.
$250-$275 billion
The total estimated economic damage and loss of the Los Angeles wildfires, according to AccuWeather.
Latest climate research
- A study in Geophysical Research Letters found “profound changes” in the seasonal cycle of sea level on the US mid-Atlantic coast. The researchers said that maximum sea level in the area had risen by 82% from 1980-99 to 2000-20.
- Leaks from the Nord Stream gas pipeline in 2022 resulted in the largest amount of methane emitted from a short-term incident on record, according to a new study in Nature.
- A paper in Science Advances found that converting forests into cropland “may be an ineffective climate adaptation strategy for improving nutrition” in Nigeria.
(For more, see Carbon Brief’s in-depth daily summaries of the top climate news stories on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.)
Captured
The chart above illustrates the institutional affiliations of the authors of the top 25 most-shared climate papers of 2024, broken down by continent. It shows that 85% of authors of the most-mentioned climate papers of 2024 are affiliated with institutions from the global north, whereas only two authors are from Africa. The findings come from Carbon Brief’s full analysis of the 25 most featured climate-related papers of 2024, which was published this week.
Spotlight
‘Cli-fi’ comes of age
Carbon Brief reports on a new literary prize which aims to grow the climate fiction genre.
It is 2025. Wildfires have scorched southern California, while a right-wing US president has been elected on a ticket to axe “wasteful” government programmes.
This is not a summary of recent news headlines, but the setting of Octavia E Butler’s 1993 novel Parable of the Sower, seen by many as an early classic of the climate fiction – or “cli-fi” – genre.
Thirty years after Butler’s prescient tale was published, cli-fi is rising in prominence.
Cli-fi prize
This spring, the inaugural UK Climate Fiction Prize will announce its first winner, awarding £10,000 to a novel that engages with climate change.
Imran Khan, one of the founders of the prize, told Carbon Brief the aim of the prize was to expand a genre that had been growing in recent years. He said:
“We wanted to try to tilt the field in favour of more stories that centre the possibilities of what the future looks like if we start to take climate more seriously – both the good and the bad. We didn’t want it just to be climate dystopias. We wanted to be stories of hope, change and possibility as well.”
The nine books on the longlist make for an eclectic reading list, spanning genres, continents and different planets.
In the mix is the Booker Prize-winning Orbital by Samantha Harvey, a meditation on the beauty and fragility of Earth, told from the vantage point of astronauts circling it. It is facing off against And So I Roar by Abi Daré, which explores themes of climate justice through the eyes of a teenage girl from Nigeria, and The Mars House by Natasha Pulley, a sci-fi novel about the marriage of an Earth refugee and an anti-immigration Martian politician.
Abby Rabinowitz teaches a climate-fiction seminar to dozens of undergraduate engineering students each year at NYU Tandon School of Engineering. She told Carbon Brief that climate fiction had assumed a “more central role in a literary way” since 2018, albeit from a low baseline.
Rabinowitz said she launched the seminar in 2021 after observing that “very few people had dealt seriously with climate change and the climate crisis in fictions, both in literary works and on the screen”. She said:
“The Day After Tomorrow, which came out in 2004, remains the one climate disaster blockbuster that I’m aware of. That was 20 years ago.”
Parable of the Sower is on Rabinowitz’ syllabus, which she said covers “apocalyptic imaginings, speculative fiction storytelling and metaphorical and allegorical treatments of climate change” in books and film. Kim Stanley Robinson’s The Ministry of the Future, Stephen Markley’s The Deluge and Adam McKay’s film Don’t Look Up also feature.
‘Change the story’
There is some debate about whether climate stories inspire action. A 2018 study of US readers found the majority of cli-fi was prompting them to associate climate change with “intensely negative reactions”, which “could prove counterproductive to efforts at environmental engagement”.
However, the research suggests that non-dystopian climate stories with “positive frames” – at the time in shorter supply – might be able to motivate readers to act.
Climate fiction is important, according to Khan, because it can paint a more “vivid” picture of future warming than scientific data, plus “change the story of what is possible”.
Parable of the Sower – which depicts a climate-ravaged world, but also a protagonist with a vision for change – is a case in point, he said:
“It is one of the best examples of… what really good climate fiction can do. It inspires emotions of rage and anger, but also hope and care. Science alone hasn’t solved this issue – and it won’t solve this issue. We need people to care enough to do something.”
Watch, read, listen
COMBUSTIBLE AGE: The New Yorker placed the Los Angeles fires in the context of historic fires that ravaged US cities – and asked what is next in a climate-changed world.
RADIO DADAAB: A stateless journalist told the story of climate refugees in the world’s second-largest refugee camp via a short Environmental Justice Foundation documentary.
NUDGE UNIT: Neuroscientist, science communicator and UCL Climate Action Unit director Kris de Meyer spoke to Your Brain on Climate about how to tell “stories of action”.
Coming up
- 20 January: US presidential inauguration, Washington DC
- 20-24 January: World Economic Forum annual meeting, Davos, Switzerland
- 23 January: International Energy Agency (IEA) heat pumps workshop, online
Pick of the jobs
- Carbon Brief, data analyst | Salary: Unknown. Location: London or remote
- Climate Change Committee, media and communications senior manager | Salary: £59,782-£66,512. Location: London
- Nature Communications, associate or senior editor (ecology) | Salary: associate editor: $80,000, senior editor: $95,000. Location: New York, Jersey City, Philadelphia or London, hybrid
- WWF DRC, conservation manager | Salary: Unknown. Location: Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of the Congo
- UK Labour Party, climate change, nature, energy and environmental policy assistant for Barry Gardiner MP | Salary: In line with IPSA pay scales. Location: London
DeBriefed is edited by Daisy Dunne. Please send any tips or feedback to debriefed@carbonbrief.org.
This is an online version of Carbon Brief’s weekly DeBriefed email newsletter. Subscribe for free here.
The post DeBriefed 17 January 2025: Trump looms; Fossil fuels made LA fires ‘burn hotter’; Has ‘cli-fi’ come of age? appeared first on Carbon Brief.
With the U.S. bombing Iran and the Strait of Hormuz closed, energy experts say countries transitioning to renewables will be more resilient in the “face of the shock.”
The United States’ war on Iran could fundamentally alter how countries consume and generate energy and hamper international progress in combating climate change, a panel of energy experts said today.
The Global Energy Supply in a Decade ‘Is Not a World We’re Going to Recognize’
One month into the US and Israel’s war on Iran, at least 60 countries have taken emergency measures in response to the subsequent global energy crisis, according to analysis by Carbon Brief.
So far, these countries have announced nearly 200 policies to save fuel, support consumers and boost domestic energy supplies.
Carbon Brief has drawn on tracking by the International Energy Agency (IEA) and other sources to assess the global policy response, just as a temporary ceasefire is declared.
Since the start of the war in late February, both sides have bombed vital energy infrastructure across the region as Iran has blocked the Strait of Hormuz – a key waterway through which around a fifth of global oil and liquified natural gas (LNG) trade passes.
This has made it impossible to export the usual volumes of fossil fuels from the region and, as a result, sent prices soaring.
Around 30 nations, from Norway to Zambia, have cut fuel taxes to help people struggling with rising costs, making this by far the most common domestic policy response to the crisis.
Some countries have stressed the need to boost domestic renewable-energy construction, while others – including Japan, Italy and South Korea – have opted to lean more on coal, at least in the short term.
The most wide-ranging responses have been in Asia, where countries that rely heavily on fossil fuels from the Middle East have implemented driving bans, fuel rationing and school closures in order to reduce demand.
‘Largest disruption’
On 28 February, the US and Israel launched a surprise attack on Iran, triggering conflict across the Middle East and sending shockwaves around the world.
There have been numerous assaults on energy infrastructure, including an Iranian attack on the world’s largest LNG facility in Qatar and an Israeli bombing of Iran’s gas sites.
Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint in the Persian Gulf, is causing what the IEA has called the “largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market”.
A fifth of the world’s oil and LNG is normally shipped through this region, with 90% of those supplies going to destinations in Asia. Without these supplies, fuel prices have surged.
Governments around the world have taken emergency actions in response to this new energy crisis, shielding their citizens from price spikes, conserving energy where possible and considering longer-term energy policies.
Even with a two-week ceasefire announced, the energy crisis is expected to continue, given the extensive damage to infrastructure and continuing uncertainties.
Asian crunch
Carbon Brief has used tracking by the IEA, news reports, government announcements and internal monitoring by the thinktank E3G to assess the range of national responses to the energy crisis roughly one month into the Iran war.
In total, Carbon Brief has identified 185 relevant policies, announcements and campaigns from 60 national governments.
As the map below shows, these measures are concentrated in east and south Asia. These regions are facing the most extreme disruption, largely due to their reliance on oil and gas supplies from the Middle East.
Nations including Indonesia, Japan, South Korea and India are already spending billions of dollars on fuel subsidies to protect people from rising costs.
At least 16 Asian countries are also taking drastic measures to reduce fuel consumption. For example, the Philippines has declared a “state of national emergency”, which includes limiting air conditioning in public buildings and subsidising public transport.
Other examples from the region include the government in Bangladesh asking the public and businesses to avoid unnecessary lighting, Pakistan reducing the speed limit on highways and Laos encouraging people to work from home.
Europe – which was hit hard by the 2022 energy crisis due to its reliance on Russian gas – is less immediately exposed to the current crisis than Asia. However, many nations are still heavily reliant on gas, including supplies from Qatar.
The continent is already feeling the effects of higher global energy prices as countries compete for more limited resources.
At least 18 European nations have introduced measures to help people with rising costs. Spain, which is relatively insulated from the crisis due to the high share of renewables in its electricity supply, nevertheless announced a €5bn aid package, with at least six measures to support consumers.
Many African countries, while also less reliant on direct fossil-fuel supplies via the Strait of Hormuz than Asia, are still facing the strain of higher import bills. Some, including Ethiopia, Kenya and Zambia, are also facing severe fuel shortages.
There have been fewer new policies across the Americas, which have been comparatively insulated from the energy crisis so far. One outlier is Chile, which is among the region’s biggest fuel importers and is, therefore, more exposed to global price increases.
Tax cuts
The most common types of policy response to the energy crisis so far have been efforts to protect people and businesses from the surge in fuel prices.
At least 28 nations, including Italy, Brazil and Australia, have introduced a total of 31 measures to cut taxes – and, therefore, prices – on fuel.
Even across Africa, where state revenues are already stretched, some nations – including Namibia and South Africa – are cutting fuel levies in a bid to stabilise prices.
Another 17 countries, including Mexico and Poland, have directly capped the price of fuel. Others, such as France and the UK, have opted for more targeted fuel subsidies, designed to support specific vulnerable groups and industries.
These measures are all shown in the dark blue “consumer support” bars in the chart below.
Such measures can directly help consumers, but some leaders, NGOs and financial experts have noted that there is also the risk of them driving inflation and reinforcing reliance on the existing fossil fuel-based system.
Christine Lagarde, president of the European Central Bank, spoke in favour of short-term measures to “smooth the shock”, but noted that “broad-based and open-ended measures may add excessively to demand”.
Measures to conserve energy, of the type that many developing countries in Asia have implemented extensively, have been described by the IEA as “more effective and fiscally sustainable than broad-based subsidies”.
So far, there have been at least 23 such measures introduced to limit the use of transport, particularly private cars.
These include Lithuania cutting train fares, two Australian states making public transport free and Myanmar and South Korea asking people to only drive their cars on certain days.
Clean vs coal
At least eight countries have announced plans to either increase their use of coal or review existing plans to transition away from coal, according to Carbon Brief’s analysis. These include Japan, South Korea, Bangladesh, the Philippines, Thailand, Pakistan, Germany and Italy.
These measures broadly involve delaying coal-plant closure, as in Italy, or allowing older sites to operate at higher rates, as in Japan – rather than building more coal plants.
There has been extensive coverage of how the energy crisis is “driving Asia back to coal”. However, as Bloomberg columnist David Fickling has noted, this shift is relatively small and likely to be offset by a move to cheap solar power in the longer term.
Indeed, some countries have begun to consider changes to the way they use energy going forward, amid a crisis driven by the spiralling costs of fossil-fuel imports.
Leaders in India, Barbados and the UK have explicitly stressed the importance of a structural shift to using clean power. Governments in France and the Philippines are among those linking new renewable-energy announcements with the unfolding crisis.
New renewable-energy capacity will take time to come online, albeit substantially less time than developing new fossil-fuel generation. In the meantime, some nations are also taking short-term measures to make their road transport less reliant on fossil fuels.
For example, the Chilean government has enabled taxi drivers to access preferential credit for purchasing electric vehicles (EVs). Cambodia has cut import taxes on EVs and Laos has lowered excise taxes on them.
Finally, there have been some signs that countries are reconsidering their future exposure to imported fossil fuels, given the current economics of oil and gas.
The New Zealand government has indicated that a plan to build a new LNG terminal by 2027 now faces uncertainty. Reuters reported that Vietnamese conglomerate Vingroup has told the government it wanted to abandon a plan to build a new LNG-fired power plant in Vietnam, in favour of renewables.
The post Iran war analysis: How 60 nations have responded to the global energy crisis appeared first on Carbon Brief.
Iran war analysis: How 60 nations have responded to the global energy crisis
Seven Senate Democrats launched the probe over controversial tax credits to the country’s largest exporter of liquefied natural gas.
Seven Democratic U.S. senators have launched a probe into a $370 million “alternative fuel” payout to Cheniere Energy, made earlier this year by the IRS, that critics say the liquefied natural gas export company never should have received.
US Senators Investigate $370 Million IRS Payout to Cheniere Energy
-
Climate Change8 months ago
Guest post: Why China is still building new coal – and when it might stop
-
Greenhouse Gases8 months ago
Guest post: Why China is still building new coal – and when it might stop
-
Greenhouse Gases2 years ago嘉宾来稿：满足中国增长的用电需求 光伏加储能“比新建煤电更实惠”
-
Climate Change2 years ago
Bill Discounting Climate Change in Florida’s Energy Policy Awaits DeSantis’ Approval
-
Climate Change2 years ago嘉宾来稿：满足中国增长的用电需求 光伏加储能“比新建煤电更实惠”
-
Climate Change Videos2 years ago
The toxic gas flares fuelling Nigeria’s climate change – BBC News
-
Renewable Energy6 months agoSending Progressive Philanthropist George Soros to Prison?
-
Carbon Footprint2 years agoUS SEC’s Climate Disclosure Rules Spur Renewed Interest in Carbon Credits