The United States’ push to lead in green hydrogen, once a centerpiece of its clean energy strategy, is slowing down. Recent policy changes by the Trump administration cut funding for hydrogen hubs. They also reduced tax credits for large-scale projects. Analysts say this slowdown could open the door for China to dominate the emerging market for low-carbon hydrogen technology.
The cuts mark a major shift from the previous administration’s investment-heavy approach. Under the Biden-era Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), the U.S. planned to spend billions to make hydrogen from renewable electricity. The goal was to decarbonize industries such as steel, cement, and chemicals, which are hard to electrify.
Now, with federal incentives being reduced or delayed, several projects are being reassessed. Developers worry that without consistent support, production costs will remain too high to compete globally.
Funding Cuts Stall the Hydrogen Hub Dream
In mid-2025, the U.S. Department of Energy began reviewing funding for several regional hydrogen hubs. These hubs were meant to create networks linking producers, users, and transport systems. Seven hubs were approved in 2023, backed by more than $7 billion in federal funding, but four are now facing cuts or slowdowns.
Industry groups warn that this could affect projects worth tens of billions of dollars. “Policy certainty is crucial for investors,” said one energy analyst cited in the Bloomberg report. “Every delay or rollback increases the cost of capital and slows deployment.”
The U.S. also faces uncertainty about the Section 45V hydrogen tax credit. This credit offers up to $3 per kilogram for hydrogen produced with near-zero emissions. The credit helped close the gap between costly green hydrogen and cheaper fossil-based hydrogen. Without it, the cost of producing green hydrogen in the U.S. could rise from $3 to $5 per kilogram to over $7, according to BloombergNEF estimates.
China Powers Ahead in the Hydrogen Race
While U.S. funding stalls, China is moving fast. The country already leads the world in electrolyzer manufacturing — the core technology used to make hydrogen from water. In 2024, Chinese companies supplied more than 65% of global electrolyzer capacity, up from just 40% in 2022.

China’s domestic market is also growing. The government has set a goal to produce 200,000 tonnes of green hydrogen per year by 2025 and up to 5 million tonnes by 2030. To support this, provinces such as Inner Mongolia and Hebei have started big solar-powered hydrogen plants.
China’s advantage lies in scale and cost. Electrolyser units made in China cost $600–$1,200 per kilowatt, far lower than the $2,000–$2,600 range typical in the U.S. and Europe. If current trends continue, the price difference might make Chinese-made equipment the top choice for global projects.
Rising Costs and Shrinking Margins
Hydrogen production costs remain the biggest obstacle to global growth. The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that low-carbon hydrogen made with renewables costs two to four times more than conventional hydrogen from natural gas.
Producing one kilogram of green hydrogen costs between $4 and $12. This varies based on electricity prices and how efficient the electrolyzer is. Grey hydrogen, made from natural gas, costs $1–3 per kilogram. Analysts say costs must fall below $2 per kilogram to compete in most industries.
Scaling up manufacturing and securing cheap renewable power are key. The IEA projects that with large-scale deployment, electrolyzer costs could fall by 60% by 2030. But this requires steady investment and policy support — something the U.S. may now struggle to sustain.
According to BloombergNEF, global investment in hydrogen production and infrastructure reached $24 billion in 2024, up 50% from 2023. China accounted for nearly half of that total, while U.S. spending slowed after federal policy reviews.
Companies Pivot Amid Uncertainty
Despite the funding cuts, some U.S. companies are pressing ahead. Plug Power, a leading hydrogen firm, recently secured a $1.7 billion loan guarantee to expand production. The company plans to build several U.S. facilities that will supply green hydrogen to logistics and industrial customers.
Meanwhile, developers are adjusting strategies to reduce costs. Some plan to co-locate hydrogen plants near wind or solar farms to secure cheap power. Others are exploring blending hydrogen with natural gas in pipelines to reduce emissions without full conversion.
Industry leaders also call for cooperation with allies. The European Union, for example, continues to fund green hydrogen projects through its Hydrogen Bank initiative. They argue that closer cooperation across the Atlantic could help Western producers compete with China’s growing supply chain.
The Global Hydrogen Race
The race for leadership in green hydrogen is as much about geopolitics as it is about technology. Countries view hydrogen as a way to cut oil imports, boost industry, and ensure energy independence.
In 2024, global hydrogen demand reached about 97 million tonnes, according to the IEA. Only a small share — less than 1% — came from low-carbon production. To meet the world’s climate targets, that share must grow to at least 20% by 2030.
BloombergNEF expects the global hydrogen market to surpass $500 billion each year by 2050. This includes production, storage, and transport. But success depends on which countries can bring down costs first and scale up faster.
If the U.S. loses momentum now, analysts warn, it may have to rely on imported technology later — particularly from China. The following table compares the costs, market share, and 2030 planned output between the two nations.

Can America Catch Up?
Green hydrogen is central to decarbonizing heavy industry and transport. It also supports renewable integration by storing excess power from wind and solar. Without continued investment, the U.S. risks missing key climate targets.
According to the Department of Energy’s earlier projections, hydrogen could cut up to 10% of U.S. greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 if widely adopted. That potential could shrink if projects slow or shift overseas.
At the same time, China’s expansion means more global supply, which could help reduce costs worldwide. Some analysts see this as an opportunity for global cooperation — if the U.S. can focus on innovation, efficiency, and regulation rather than pure scale.
The chart from Bloomberg below shows the potential changes under Trump’s current policy moves.

Experts say the U.S. can still recover its position with the right mix of policy and private investment. Restoring tax credits, simplifying permits, and investing in electrolyzer manufacturing can help create a fairer market.
For now, China appears to have the upper hand. Its rapid manufacturing growth and strong state support have created momentum that the U.S. may struggle to match. However, as clean energy technologies mature, global demand will likely outstrip any single country’s supply.
The coming years will decide whether the U.S. remains a key player or becomes a buyer in the green hydrogen market it once hoped to lead.
- FURTHER READING: Element Resources to Build America’s Largest $1.85B Green Hydrogen Plant in California
The post U.S. Green Hydrogen Cuts Give China an Edge in the Clean Energy Race appeared first on Carbon Credits.
Carbon Footprint
How to improve Scope 3 data accuracy for CSRD
For most businesses, the emissions that matter most sit outside their own walls. Scope 3 emissions, everything generated across your value chain, from the suppliers who make your inputs to the customers who use your products, typically make up the majority of a company’s total carbon footprint. Under the Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive (CSRD), those value-chain emissions now have to be measured and disclosed with a rigour that spend-based estimates alone struggle to satisfy. This guide sets out how to improve Scope 3 data accuracy for CSRD: the calculation methods open to you, how to move from estimates to verified supplier data, and how to govern that data so it holds up to audit.
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Carbon Footprint
How community stewardship makes carbon credits durable
A carbon credit is a commitment that extends well into the future. The tonne of CO₂ compensated for today from a nature-based carbon project must remain out of the atmosphere for good, which means the forest behind the credit has to remain standing long after the transaction is complete. For any buyer, this raises a defining question: What ensures that the forest endures?
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Carbon Footprint
Why Conventional Carbon Offsets Are Losing Boardroom Credibility
What replaced the cheap REDD credit on the boardroom slide deck, and why procurement is leading the rewrite.
Three years ago, a corporate slide showing a portfolio of cheap REDD+ credits could carry a board meeting. The number was big, the price was low, and the press release wrote itself. Today, that same slide gets sent back with questions. The questions are uncomfortable, the answers are unclear, and your general counsel is suddenly in the room.
Conventional carbon offsets are not dead. The voluntary carbon market retired 202 million tonnes in 2025, and the Morgan Stanley Institute for Sustainable Investing survey published in January 2026 confirmed that interest from corporate buyers remains substantial. What changed is the credibility threshold. The integrity floor has risen, the disclosure scrutiny has tightened, and the buyer profile has shifted. This article tracks what changed, what sophisticated buyers now ask before signing, and what serious corporates are putting on the board slide instead.
What boards used to buy, and why it stopped working
The 2020 to 2022 model was simple: buy a large tranche of avoidance credits at low single-digit prices, retire them against the company footprint, announce the carbon-neutral claim, and move on. Most of those credits came from REDD+ projects, renewable energy installations in countries where the renewable energy was already economic, or methane projects with thin documentation.
Several things broke that model. Academic research published in 2023, including a widely cited Science paper, found that the majority of REDD+ credits issued under the most common methodologies did not represent additional reductions when tested against rigorous counterfactuals. The Voluntary Carbon Markets Integrity Initiative published its Claims Code of Practice, which sets requirements for what companies can credibly claim from credit use. The European Union finalised its Green Claims Directive, restricting how companies can describe products as climate-neutral. France’s Décret 2022-539 already restricts carbon neutrality advertising. California’s AB 1305 imposes disclosure requirements on any company making net-zero or carbon-neutral claims while doing business in the state.
The collective effect: the cheap credit no longer buys the announcement, and the announcement now carries litigation risk.
The integrity reset: ICVCM, VCMI, and what changed
The Integrity Council for the Voluntary Carbon Market published the Core Carbon Principles in 2023 and began assessing methodologies against them in 2024. The first methodologies received the CCP label later that year. The point of the label is to give corporate buyers a defensible quality screen they can cite in disclosure.
The Voluntary Carbon Markets Integrity Initiative complements this on the demand side. Its Claims Code of Practice defines what a buyer can say (Silver, Gold, or Platinum claims, with associated requirements) based on the quality of credits used and the underlying decarbonisation strategy. Together, CCP and VCMI build a quality stack: CCP on the supply, VCMI on the claim, with the science-based target sitting underneath both.
The reset is not a ban on offsets. It is a ratchet. Credits that meet the new bar continue to clear; credits that do not, do not. The Morgan Stanley survey found that 61% of current buyers like the CCP label concept but that supply of labelled credits remains limited. That supply constraint is now visible in pricing.
What sophisticated buyers ask before they sign
The questions on the procurement scorecard have changed. A 2022 buyer might have asked about price, vintage, and project type. A 2026 buyer asks five different questions before any of those.
- What does the counterfactual look like, and who validated it.
- What is the permanence regime, and what is the buffer pool exposure.
- What is the leakage risk, and how is it mitigated.
- What rating has the project received from the independent ratings agencies (Sylvera, BeZero, Calyx Global), and what was the rationale.
- What is the documentation discipline that survives an audit four years from now when the procurement team that signed the contract has moved on.
If the vendor cannot answer those five questions on a first call, the conversation ends. Conversely, if the vendor can answer them with documented specificity, the conversation often expands beyond a single transaction toward a multi-year engagement.
Where this leaves your near-term commitments
You probably have near-term commitments that pre-date the integrity reset. Public targets to be carbon neutral by 2025 or 2030. Product-level claims that ran in last year’s marketing. Disclosed reduction trajectories that assumed continued access to cheap credits.
You have three workable paths. The first is to re-baseline your strategy, replacing the most exposed credits with higher-quality alternatives and adjusting the public language to match what you can defend. The second is to shift the underlying spend from offsetting outside your value chain to investing inside your value chain, where reductions count against Scope 3 directly and the audit trail is cleaner. The third is to keep the strategy and absorb the risk, which is increasingly the most expensive option once you price in litigation, restatement, and reputational exposure.
Most serious buyers are choosing the second path. It moves the carbon spend from a compliance cost to a procurement and resilience investment, and it removes the central failure point of the legacy model: the disconnect between where the emissions occurred and where the reductions sat. Nature-based supply chain investments, structured under the GHG Protocol Land Sector and Removals Standard and aligned to the SBTi FLAG Guidance, are the asset class that fits this brief. They generate inventory-grade reductions, they produce audit-grade documentation, and they survive the new claim restrictions because the carbon math sits inside the value chain that the disclosure already covers.
If you are reassessing a carbon strategy under the new integrity bar, or rebuilding a board narrative that has to survive a more skeptical audience, the carbon and sustainability experts at Carbon Credit Capital can help. The Dual-Value Model gives you a defensible alternative to legacy offset purchases, with the documentation and operational integration that survives the procurement scorecard and the audit. Schedule a consultation.
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