Governments drew their battle lines this week over how COP30 should respond to an expected shortfall in ambition in countries’ national climate plans, raising the prospect of a fight at the UN summit in Belém.
Countries are divided over the need for the COP30 talks to formally discuss an upcoming UN review of newly announced targets to cut greenhouse gas emissions. That ‘synthesis report’ is widely expected to show that the world is not on track to limit global warming in line with the temperature goals of the Paris Agreement.
The clash of views became public for the first time on Thursday as Brazil’s COP30 president André Corrêa do Lago hosted a first round of informal consultations with delegations in a bid to avert procedural arguments over the agenda delaying the start of negotiations, as has occurred in recent years.
Anticipating the row in a letter last month, the seasoned Brazilian diplomat on Thursday appealed to countries to “exercise restraint” at a time when UN climate diplomacy is facing “one of the greatest tests” ever.
Rich nations, least developed countries (LDCs), small island states, Latin American nations and the United Arab Emirates spoke in favour of a COP30 decision that acknowledges the progress and remaining gaps in nationally determined contributions (NDCs) and lays out a pathway for accelerating climate action in the years ahead.
But a group of high-income emerging countries – including China, Saudi Arabia and India – voiced strong opposition to that plan. They argued that discussions of those NDCs and the UN “synthesis report” assessing them are not on the summit’s agenda – and the only space for addressing a shortfall in ambition remains the Global Stocktake (GST).
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A five-yearly process established by the Paris Agreement, the next GST is scheduled to be completed in 2028.
Two years ago, the first GST found the world was significantly off track to meet its climate goals. That exercise resulted at COP28 in Dubai in what was hailed as a historic global commitment to transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems – but little has since been done to put that pledge into practice.
COP30 call for stronger climate plans
Speaking at Thursday’s consultation, the climate envoy for the low-lying Marshall Islands in the Pacific, said this round of NDCs – the third under the Paris Agreement – is “the last chance to course correct” emissions reductions in line with the 1.5C warming limit.
“We cannot wait for the next Global Stocktake,” she added. “That will be far too late for my country and millions of people around the world”.
Only a sixth of countries have presented their updated NDCs so far, including an emissions-cutting target for 2035, with those from many major economies including the European Union (EU), China and India still missing. A flurry of submissions is expected in the coming weeks ahead of an end-of-September deadline for their inclusion in the synthesis report.
The last such assessment, published last year, estimated that full implementation of the NDCs available at that point would lead to a 5.9% reduction in planet-heating emissions by 2030, compared to the 2019 level. That is far short of the 43% fall in global emissions the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has said is needed by the end of this decade to be in line with the 1.5C target.
Nepal’s lead negotiator, taking the floor for the world’s poorest nations, said COP30 must offer “a clear plan” to address gaps in both climate ambition and the implementation of existing commitments. “It must provide confidence that we are moving forward, offer solutions to close the gap and reaffirm trust in multilateralism,” he added.
Responding to NDCs seen as “priority”
Colombia’s head of delegation argued that COP30 will be “a defining political moment for the international community”. “It will test whether parties are willing to match words with action and put forward contributions that genuinely keep 1.5C within reach,” she added.
Framing talks on the updated climate plans as one of COP30’s main objectives, most developed countries urged a strong response to the expected shortfall, ideally in the form of a negotiated outcome agreed by all nations.
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The EU went as far as calling for the creation of a new item on the summit’s agenda that directly addresses the level of collective ambition of NDCs and the steps needed to plug remaining gaps. “This is the key priority for the EU,” said the climate negotiator for the bloc.
Switzerland, speaking on behalf of the self-styled Environmental Integrity Group, suggested that, at the talks in the Amazon city of Belém, countries could launch a new political process to “bring us closer to 1.5C”. That could include a forum for ministers to come together and identify opportunities for cooperation on climate action.
Emerging economies push back
Large emerging economies and the group of Arab countries pushed back on the need to discuss climate plans – arguing the topic is not on the agenda and would go against the “nationally determined” nature of the Paris Agreement. Instead, they called for talks to focus on finance and trade measures.
India said it is unclear why a separate discussion on the NDC synthesis report is needed when it is not an item on the formal agenda.
China argued that the COP30 presidency should not create a new process to consider NDCs that would risk diluting the GST. “The current multilateral process is complex and fragile,” said the country’s delegate, adding “any negative evaluation of NDCs might lead to a decrease in confidence and mutual trust”.
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Speaking on behalf of the “Like-Minded” group of developing countries, Bolivia’s lead negotiator said the bloc is not in favour of reflecting messages from the NDCs in any COP30 decisions, and in particular in a political cover text, as the Global Stocktake remains the only dedicated space to assess collective climate efforts. He added that there is no consensus on the need to respond to the latest round of NDCs at COP30.
Saudi Arabia, on behalf of the group of Arab countries, raised the concern “that this push places undue pressure on developing countries with respect to ambition at a time when the Paris Agreement has clearly moved into an implementation phase”.
Saudi Arabia’s negotiator added that submitting national climate plans and assessing them in one year is “destructive” and out of step with the Paris Agreement. He urged the Brazilian presidency to focus on issues around finance and trade, which often refers to mechanisms such as the EU’s forthcoming carbon border tax.
More consultations on the calendar
While the disagreements were starkly evident this week, the COP30 presidency plans further consultations in the hope that countries can work out a way forward on how to respond to the NDC and other tricky issues before the summit in November.
An in-person consultation will take place on September 25 in New York, the day after a high-level UN event where countries are due to unveil their latest NDCs, and a second will be held on October 15, in Brasília as part of the “Pre-COP” meetings.
“The smooth adoption of the agenda at COP30 may be one of our strongest demonstrations to the outside world that this [UN climate] regime works, is alive and well,” Corrêa do Lago told country officials on Thursday.
The post Countries trail COP30 clash over global response to shortfall in national climate plans appeared first on Climate Home News.
Countries trail COP30 clash over global response to shortfall in national climate plans
Climate Change
DeBriefed 19 June 2026: Bonn talks end in ‘gridlock’ | Energy’s ‘new era’ | Oceans in climate negotiations
Welcome to Carbon Brief’s DeBriefed.
An essential guide to the week’s key developments relating to climate change.
This week
Bonn talks close
‘SIDE-STEPPING AND STALLING’: UN climate talks in Bonn have ended in “gridlock”, according to Climate Home News. The outlet reported on the failure to balance developing countries’ need for climate-adaptation finance with “richer nations’ desire to move forward” on emissions cuts. It added that both topics were subject to “rule 16”, meaning no agreement could be reached and work will be pushed to the COP31 summit in Turkey. Inside Climate News quoted UN climate executive secretary Simon Stiell, who said the talks had seen “side-stepping and stalling”.
JUST TRANSITION: One “glimmer of hope” came from negotiations on achieving a “just transition”, reported Euronews. The news outlet said negotiators “made headway on operationalising the Belém-Antalya mechanism”, intended to support people in the shift to a low-carbon economy. However, Politico concluded that much of the focus in Bonn had “shift[ed] to efforts outside diplomatic talks – raising questions about the future of global climate negotiations”.
‘ATTACKING SCIENCE’: Agence France-Presse reported on the EU, Switzerland and “dozens of developing nations” warning of “attacks on science” by a “small group of fossil-fuels interests” in Bonn. Table Briefings explained that “the 1.5C target is increasingly being challenged” and the role of the UN climate-science panel – the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) – in an upcoming assessment of global climate progress “remains controversial”. See Carbon Brief’s full write-up of the talks for more detail.
US-Iran deal
PRICE DROP: The US and Iran announced that they have reached an interim agreement to halt the war and reopen the strait of Hormuz, reported Bloomberg. Oil prices have fallen, as the “long-awaited deal” began the process of “eas[ing]” the global energy crisis triggered by the conflict, according to the New York Times. The Associated Press noted that high fuel prices will “likely outlast the Iran war”.
‘OIL GLUT’: The Financial Times reported that the International Energy Agency (IEA) has forecast a “glut of oil” emerging next year, if the peace deal holds. The IEA said this would allow countries to build new strategic reserves, as they “review their energy strategies and policies in response to the crisis”, according to Reuters.
‘NEW ERA’: Agence France-Presse reported that oil and gas companies have “few illusions about a return to normal for the Gulf energy industry after more than three months of blockage”. One analyst told the newswire that the war “showed the oil and gas industry that Hormuz risk is no longer just a geopolitical headline”.
Around the world
- OCEAN MONITOR: The Trump administration is “abandoning its plan” to dismantle a $368m ocean monitoring system key for tracking climate change after a “bipartisan backlash on Capitol Hill”, reported the New York Times.
- CORAL HAVEN: The New York Times covered preliminary research, presented at the Our Ocean Conference in Kenya, suggesting there could be three times as many “coral refugia” – where corals are relatively safe from climate change – than previously thought.
- BAD CREDIT: Down to Earth reported that the first carbon credits issued under the Paris Agreement’s new Article 6.4 mechanism are “facing scrutiny over alleged links to institutions controlled by Myanmar’s military junta”.
- OIL BACKTRACK: Reuters reported that oil-and-gas company Equinor has dropped a renewable-energy target and scaled back clean investments, while another Reuters story noted that Shell is selling off its offshore wind assets.
1.1 billion
The number of children facing “at least three overlapping climate hazards”, according to a new Unicef report covered by Agence France-Presse.
Latest climate research
- Including the “permafrost carbon-climate feedback” in climate models increases the chance of exceeding “tipping elements” – such as the Greenland ice sheets, Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation or Amazon rainforest – by up to 50% | Environmental Research Letters
- The intensity of influenza outbreaks could decline in temperate regions, but increase in tropical areas over the next century, as the climate warms | PNAS Nexus
- European snow cover has declined by 20% for December and January since the start of the industrial era, revealing an “unprecedented ongoing shrinkage of European winters” | Communications Earth & Environment
(For more, see Carbon Brief’s in-depth daily summaries of the top climate news stories on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.)
Captured
The more than 2m battery electric vehicles (BEVs), 1m “plug-in” hybrids (PHEVs) and 100,000 electric vans on UK roads are already saving drivers a total of around £3bn a year, according to new Carbon Brief analysis. This amounts to savings of more than £1,100 a year in fuel costs for each BEV driver in the UK. The analysis comes amid reports in UK media this week that the government is considering “watering down” its EV sales targets.
Spotlight
Oceans rising at UN climate talks
The state of the world’s oceans is inextricably linked to the changing climate – and many delegates at UN climate talks want to see more focus on this issue, reports Carbon Brief.
Oceans are often described as the world’s “greatest ally” against climate change – absorbing 30% of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and most of the heat generated by those emissions.
They are also the site of important climate solutions, such as huge offshore windfarms and the shipping industry’s transition to cleaner fuels.
At the same time, the oceans themselves present a growing danger to coastal communities and sea life due to sea level rise, marine heatwaves and ocean acidification.
These diverse issues have led to growing calls within the UN climate process for more focus on oceans. During climate negotiations this week in Bonn – known as SB64 – nations and civil society had a chance to air these views during an “ocean and climate change dialogue”.
‘Elevate action’
Oceans first entered UN climate outcomes in 2019, when the final COP25 negotiated text requested a new “dialogue” on “the ocean and climate change to consider how to strengthen mitigation and adaptation action”.
The following years saw this dialogue established as an annual event. However, the political weight of these discussions has been limited.
COP31 is being co-led by Turkey and Australia, but with Pacific islands playing a supporting role. These small islands sometimes self-identify as “large ocean states”, stressing the ocean’s centrality in their societies.
In Bonn, figures from across the presidency threw their weight behind this issue. Chris Bowen, an Australian minister and incoming COP31 “president of negotiations”, told attendees:
“Australia, Turkey and the Pacific see an important opportunity to elevate ocean-based climate action.”
Strategies and finance
The two-day dialogue in Bonn involved a series of panels, statements and breakout groups.
One of the main topics was how oceans are integrated into national climate plans under the Paris Agreement, known as “nationally determined contributions” (NDCs).
Three-quarters of the latest round of NDCs mention oceans, with conservation of “blue carbon” ecosystems the most frequently described action. (Landscapes such as mangroves can both absorb CO2 and protect coastal areas.)
Delegates also discussed alignment with the UN biodiversity process, as well as ocean finance, which currently makes up less than 1% of all climate finance.
(As discussions were taking place in Bonn, country officials also gathered in Mombasa, Kenya for the 11th Our Ocean Conference. Carbon Brief’s associate editor Giuliana Viglione attended the conference and will publish a full summary shortly.)
Developing countries were clear that many of the ocean-related actions in their NDCs would depend on receiving more financial support.
‘Political momentum’
With the backing of the COP31 presidency, delegates were hopeful about where this year’s dialogue could lead.
Charles Hamilton, an advisor for the Bahamas who spoke for the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS) in the dialogue, told Carbon Brief that island representatives “are not traveling thousands of miles to just talk and pat ourselves on the back”. He added:
“A dialogue that just remains a dialogue is just more talk – no action.”
Given that, he said “discussions in the dialogue must move into COP decisions and the decisions must be actioned”, noting the importance of finance.
Marina Corrêa, oceans lead at WWF-Brazil, pointed to an upcoming UN climate change Standing Committee on Finance forum as a space to ramp up pressure on ocean finance.
More broadly, she wanted to see the presidencies translate their support into a “leader-level ocean initiative” that could “mainstream” oceans across negotiations.
“We have a really interesting opportunity, in terms of political momentum,” Corrêa told Carbon Brief.
Watch, read, listen
‘HOTTER THAN HELL’: An episode of the BBC’s Rare Earth podcast titled “hotter than hell” considered the issue of extreme heat, with input from experts and “people facing up to the hottest temperatures on the planet”.
NOT BROKEN?: John Drake, a professor of ecology at the University of Georgia, wrote an essay for Aeon – also re-published as a Guardian “long read” – questioning the framing of ecosystems and climate systems “breaking down”.
ON COURSE: On his Volts podcast, US climate journalist David Roberts interviewed UK climate minister Katie White, quizzing her about whether the UK will “stay the course with its climate plans”.
Coming up
- 20-28 June: London climate action week
- 21 June: Colombia presidential runoff
- 24 June: UK Climate Change Committee progress in reducing emissions 2026 report to parliament
Pick of the jobs
- Mongabay, managing editor – Africa | Salary: Unknown. Location: Global
- Contexte, environment reporter – Brussels | Salary: €45,000-€60,000. Location: Brussels
- Climate 200, communications director | Salary: Unknown. Location: Australia
- Energy Tracker Asia, energy transition correspondent | Salary: $3,000-$4,000 per month. Location: South-east Asia (remote)
DeBriefed is edited by Daisy Dunne. Please send any tips or feedback to debriefed@carbonbrief.org.
This is an online version of Carbon Brief’s weekly DeBriefed email newsletter. Subscribe for free here.
The post DeBriefed 19 June 2026: Bonn talks end in ‘gridlock’ | Energy’s ‘new era’ | Oceans in climate negotiations appeared first on Carbon Brief.
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