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“Exceptionally heavy” rainfall that led to deadly flooding across southern Africa in recent weeks was made more intense by a combination of climate change and La Niña.

This is according to a rapid attribution study by the World Weather Attribution service.

From late December 2025 to early January, south-eastern Africa was hit hard by intense downpours that resulted in more than a year’s worth of rain falling in some areas in just a few days, according to the study.

This led to severe flooding that left at least 200 people dead, thousands sheltering in temporary accommodation and tens of thousands of hectares of farmland waterlogged.

The analysis finds that periods of intense rainfall over southern Africa have become 40% more severe since pre-industrial times, according to observations.

The authors say they were unable to calculate how much of this increase was driven specifically by climate change, due to limitations in how climate models simulate African rainfall.

However, the study notes that the researchers “have confidence that climate change has increased both the likelihood and the intensity” of the rainfall.

The authors also note that the El Niño-Southern Oscillation phenomenon played a role in the “devastating” flooding, estimating that a La Niña event made the rainfall around five times more likely.

Major disruption

The heavy rainfall started on 26 December last year and intensified from early January. The most-extreme rainfall took place between 10 and 19 January.

The countries most affected by the floods, and analysed by the study, are Eswatini, Mozambique, South Africa and Zimbabwe, with some areas receiving up to 200mm of rain, according to the study authors.

Study author Bernardino Nhantumbo – a researcher at Mozambique’s National Institute of Meteorology – told a press briefing that in just two or three days, some areas recorded the amount of rainfall that is “expected for the whole rainy season”.

The map below shows the areas most affected by intense rainfall over 10-19 January. Darker blue indicates a greater accumulation of rainfall, while light green indicates less rainfall. The pink box shows the study area.

Satellite image of southern Africa showing that some areas saw over a year's rain in just days
Most affected areas by large floods in southern Africa. Darker blue indicates a greater accumulation of rainfall, while light green indicates less rainfall. The pink box shows the study area. Source: WWA (2026).

In Mozambique, the floods damaged nearly 5,000km of roads, which has hindered the transport of goods and affected pharmaceutical supply chains, the study says. In Zimbabwe, bridges, roads and infrastructure were “significantly damaged or destroyed”.

More than 75,000 people have been affected by the floods in Mozambique, according to the study. BBC News reported the floods were the worst seen “in a generation” in the country.

Dr Izidine Pinto, a climate scientist from Mozambique currently working at the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, told a press briefing that the country was particularly affected because it “lies downstream of major river basins”.

The flooding prompted Mozambique’s education minister to consider rescheduling the start of the academic year, according to Channel Africa.

In South Africa, the country’s weather service said that areas receiving more than 50mm of rain over 11-13 January were “widespread”, with some places seeing up to 200mm.

South Africa’s Kruger National Park – the largest national park in South Africa – was severely damaged by floods and temporarily closed after several rivers burst their banks, reported TimesLIVE.

The South African news outlet quoted environment minister Willie Aucamp as saying: “The indication is that it will take as long as five years to repair all the bridges and roads and other infrastructure.”

Extreme rainfall

The peak of the rainy season in southern Africa falls between December and February.

To put the extreme rainfall into its historical context and determine how unlikely it was, the authors analysed a timeseries of 10-day maximum rainfall data for the December-February season.

They find that in today’s climate, extreme rainfall events of the scale seen this year in southern Africa would be expected only once every 50 years.

They add that such events have become “significantly more intense”, with observational data showing a 40% increase in rainfall severity since pre-industrial times.

The map below shows accumulated rainfall over Eswatini, Mozambique, South Africa and Zimbabwe over 10-19 January, as a percentage of the average December-February rainfall for the region over 1991-2020.

Green shading indicates that the rainfall in 2026 was higher than in 1991-2020, while brown indicates that it was lower. The red box indicates the study region.

Accumulated rainfall over Eswatini, Mozambique, South Africa and Zimbabwe over 10-19 January 2026, shown as a percentage of the average December-February rainfall for the region over 1991-2020. The study region is outlined in dark red. Source: WWA (2026).
Accumulated rainfall over Eswatini, Mozambique, South Africa and Zimbabwe over 10-19 January 2026, shown as a percentage of the average December-February rainfall for the region over 1991-2020. The study region is outlined in dark red. Source: WWA (2026).

The study explains that in January and February, rainfall patterns in southern Africa are “strongly influenced” by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a naturally occurring climate phenomenon that affects global temperatures and regional weather patterns.

La Niña is the “cool” phase of ENSO, which typically brings wetter weather to southern Africa.

Pinto told the press briefing that “most past extreme rainfall events [in the region] have occurred during La Niña years”.

The authors estimate that the current weak La Niña event made the extreme rainfall five times more likely and increased the intensity of the event by around 22%.

For attribution studies, which identify the “fingerprint” of human-caused climate change on extreme weather events, scientists typically use climate models to simulate and compare worlds with and without global warming.

However, many models have limitations in their simulations of African rainfall. In this study, the authors found that the models available to them cannot “adequately capture” the influence of ENSO on rainfall in the region.

Study author Prof Fredi Otto, a professor in climate science at the Imperial College London, told a press briefing that these limitations are “well known”. They stem, in part, because the models were “developed outside of Africa” by modellers with different priorities, she explained.

This means that the authors were unable to calculate how much more intense or likely the rainfall event was specifically as a result of human-caused warming.

However, Otto explained that the authors are “very, very confident that climate change did increase the likelihood and intensity of the rainfall” to some extent. This is because the observations all show an increase in rainfall over time and other existing literature supports this assumption, she added.

She told the press briefing that the results of this study were “definitely not 100% satisfactory”, adding that this study will “definitely not be the last of its kind in this region”.

(These findings are yet to be published in a peer-reviewed journal. However, the methods used in the analysis have been published in previous attribution studies.)

Vulnerability

The study warns that the flooding “exposed deep and persistent social vulnerability in the region”.

The authors say that a large proportion of the population – especially in urban areas – live in poor housing with “inadequate planning and insufficient provision of basic services”.

Paola Emerson, head of office at the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) in Mozambique, told a UN press briefing about the flooding that nearly 90% of people in the country live in traditional adobe houses that “basically melt after a few days’ rains”.

In a WWA press release, study author Nhantumbo explained:

“When 90% of homes are made of sun-dried earth, they simply cannot withstand this much rain. The structural collapse of entire villages is a stark reminder that our communities and infrastructure are now being tested by weather they are just not designed to endure.”

Study author Renate Meyer – an adviser with the conflict and climate team at the Red Cross Red Crescent Centre – said in a WWA press briefing that the “recurring frequency of hazards such as drought and extreme rainfall have had a significant impact on communities experiencing, amongst others, displacement, health challenges, socioeconomic loss and psychological distress”.

For example, the World Health Organization (WHO) said in a press release that the event had disrupted access to health services and increased the risks of water- and mosquito-borne diseases, as well as respiratory infections across southern Africa.

Meyer explained that the countries included in this study have “substantial populations living below or near the poverty line with limited savings, low insurance cover and a high dependence on climate sensitive livelihoods”.

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EU, UK lead push for electrification as “powerful weapon” against fossil fuels

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Dozens of governments led by the EU and the UK have pledged to throw their political weight behind a rapid electrification of the world’s economy, billed as a “powerful weapon” for cutting reliance on planet-heating fossil fuels.

At a high-level summit in London’s Mansion House on Tuesday, energy ministers and business leaders were joined by UN secretary-general António Guterres in calling for faster action to curb demand for oil, coal and gas by powering homes, industry and transport with clean electricity.

Electrification – which spans measures such as switching from petrol cars to electric vehicles – has emerged as a key priority in climate and energy policy circles this year.

COP31 co-hosts Türkiye and Australia have made a global target for electricity to meet 35% of final energy demand by 2035, up from around 20% today, the main plank of this year’s action agenda for the UN summit. Reaching that level is necessary to keep the 1.5C warming limit within reach, according to the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA).

Turkish COP31 President-Designate Murat Kurum said earlier this month that the host nation would work to forge “a strong global coalition that is ready and determined to act” and promised to facilitate access to technical assistance.

    Rallying support for electrification

    Five months before countries are due to sign on to the pledge, efforts to rally support gathered momentum at London Climate Action Week, as a record-breaking heatwave baking the capital underscored the urgency of weaning the world off fossil fuels.

    Guterres said the world faces an “historic opportunity” to turn the page on its dependence on fossil fuels and fully embrace clean electrification powered by renewables.

    “The age of clean electrification is here,” he added. “The question is whether we can build the grids and storage, mobilize the investment, and deliver the infrastructure at the speed and scale required”.

    Without investment and government policies supporting upgrades in infrastructure, ageing power grids are often unable to handle the growing influx of renewable energy, creating bottlenecks and slowing the energy transition, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).

    Meanwhile, the high upfront costs of buying electric vehicles, heat pumps and industrial equipment remains a challenge to switch households and businesses away from using fossil fuels across the world, according IEA analysts, despite these technologies being cheaper over their whole lifecycle.

    Global coordination platform

    In a bid to overcome these hurdles, the European Commission and the UK government on Tuesday launched a new platform to coordinate global progress on electrification.

    EU energy commissioner Dan Jorgensen said the goal was to build coalitions, draw up policy recommendations, share best practice and secure new funding to speed up the electrification of homes, industry and transport.

    Brazil’s COP30 presidency, the joint Australia-Türkiye COP31 presidency, Ethiopia’s incoming COP32 presidency, Canada, the Philippines and South Korea joined the initiative at launch.

    Jorgensen urged governments worldwide to “choose transformation over turbulence” and switch to clean electricity to make economies and societies more resilient and shield them from future shocks driven by volatile fossil fuels.

    COP31 leaders unveil global targets, with spotlight on electrification

    For many countries, especially those heavily reliant on imported fossil fuels, the oil and gas crisis triggered by the US and Israeli attacks on Iran and the ensuing blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has driven home the urgency of the clean energy transition.

    The UK’s energy secretary Ed Miliband said on Tuesday that, unlike previous fossil fuel shocks, clean electrification now offers the world a clear alternative.

    “An alternative that cannot be disrupted by foreign wars, that isn’t subject to global shocks because it is locked in stable prices at home, and that can create good jobs and drive growth,” he added, “an alternative that can deliver national security, energy security and indeed climate security.”

    At the recent conference on transitioning away from fossil fuels in Santa Marta, a group of 60 governments led by the Netherlands and Colombia said electrification is one of the areas where they can align work with the UN climate talks.

    Financial reforms needed

    Achieving the electrification target – dubbed the “35 by 35” goal – will require significant financial resources. Investments in power grids alone need to double from their current rate to around $1 trillion each year in the next decade, according to IRENA.

    But Guterres said that developing countries are still “starved from investment” in their clean energy sector. He urged deeper reforms of the global financial architecture by reducing lending risk, lowering the cost of capital and attracting more private investment.

    Surangel Whipps Jr., president of the low-lying Pacific island state of Palau, said faster progress in electrification is a “powerful weapon in our arsenal”. But he warned that the energy transition would stall without “fit for purpose investment that is fast, predictable and accessible”.

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    Mombasa: Key outcomes from the Our Ocean Conference in Kenya

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    A major ocean conference has ended in Mombasa, Kenya, with just a handful of countries committing to high-level political declarations on banning deep-sea mining, protecting climate-resilient coral reefs and combatting illegal fishing.

    The Our Ocean Conference (OOC) brought together more than 5,000 delegates to discuss marine issues and make voluntary commitments to advance ocean sustainability.

    It was the first time in the conference’s 11 editions that it had been held on African soil.

    African countries played an “important leadership role” at the talks, observers told Carbon Brief, helping to drive ambition on fisheries transparency, a precautionary pause on deep-sea mining and developing proposals for marine protected areas on the high seas.

    Across the three-day conference, attendees also made 320 separate commitments, including new funding for scientific research, improving waste-management programmes to reduce marine pollution and mapping Indigenous groups’ customary waters.

    Some of these commitments were accompanied by announcements of new funding, with a total of $6.4bn “mobilised” across all pledges.

    Several non-governmental organisations also released new reports during the conference, on topics ranging from the implementation of marine protected areas to “climate-resilient” coral reefs.

    Observers told Carbon Brief that the commitments and discussions at the conference were “positive steps”, but added that these pledges must now be backed up by action.

    During the opening ceremony, former US secretary of state John Kerry urged delegates to move “from commitments to implementation”.

    Here, Carbon Brief outlines the key takeaways from the OOC across five major climate-related topics.

    Background

    The OOC was first held in Washington DC in 2014, where it was championed by Kerry.

    The conference aims to “identify action-based solutions and make tangible commitments” towards addressing key issues facing the ocean, such as climate change and overfishing. It does so through voluntary commitments made by governments, non-governmental organisations, civil society groups and others.

    These commitments align with the six “pillars” of the conference:

    • The ocean-climate nexus
    • Marine pollution
    • Marine protected areas
    • Maritime security
    • Sustainable blue economy
    • Sustainable fisheries

    Since then, the conference has been held annually (with the exceptions of 2020 and 2021 during the Covid pandemic), with the host city changing every year.

    Each edition of the conference is very different, attendees told Carbon Brief, and the host country plays a large role in setting the conference’s priorities.

    For example, at the 2024 conference, held in Athens, Greece, shipping and sustainable tourism were discussed at length alongside the six existing pillars.

    At this year’s summit, extra attention was paid to the roles of local communities in achieving a “healthy” ocean.

    Since 2025, the conference has had its own dedicated secretariat, hosted at the research organisation, the World Resources Institute (WRI). (Prior to that, the US Department of State acted as the de-facto secretariat.) 

    Marine protected area, Torre del Cerrano, Pineto, Italy.
    Marine protected area, Torre del Cerrano, Pineto, Italy. Credit: Fabrizio Troiani / Alamy Stock Photo

    Conference participants told Carbon Brief that the OOC has been “highly successful” in achieving its aims over the past decade. 

    An analysis of the first 10 years of the conference, published by WRI in 2025, found that of a total 2,618 commitments made at the OOC, around 1,130 had been completed and a further 1,005 were in progress.

    In Mombasa this year, 104 countries and organisations made a total of 320 voluntary commitments. More than one-quarter of these commitments were made in the “sustainable blue economy” action area.

    According to the preliminary report released by the secretariat at the conclusion of the OOC, the commitments made at the conference represent $6.4bn in “mobilised” finance. However, it is unclear from the report how much of this figure is new committed funding.

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    Marine protected areas

    Marine protected areas (MPAs) are one of the six key action areas of the Our Ocean Conference.

    A June 2026 independent assessment of the MPA-related commitments at previous editions of the OOC found that the conference has “made an outsized contribution to global marine conservation efforts”.

    According to the analysis, more than one-third of the Earth’s MPAs stemmed from announcements made at the OOC – a total area of more than 10m square kilometres (km2).

    This progress is the result of nearly two-thirds of MPA-related OOC commitments already fully implemented, the assessment says, while most of the remaining commitments “show evidence of progress”.

    If all pledged MPAs were to be implemented, it would represent protection for around 14.4m km2 or 4% of the ocean.

    The chart below shows the number of pledged actions related to MPAs and other area-based conservation methods that were pledged at the OOC between 2014 and 2025, coloured by the progress made on each commitment.

    Map of marine protected areas around the world
    Degree of completion of MPA commitments made at the OOC between 2014 and 2025. Blue indicates evidence of completion, while yellow shows some evidence of progress and red shows no evidence of progress. Source: Sullivan-Stack et al. (2026)

    Several groups announced new MPAs – or the completion of previously announced MPA designations – at the OOC.

    These included the establishment this year of two new MPAs in the Juan Fernández region of Chile, protecting a total of around 337,000km2 of ocean, and the approval of the Azores Marine Park, which will span 287,000km2 – making it the largest network of protected areas in the north Atlantic Ocean.

    However, despite the progress made in designating MPAs, further work is needed to ensure that these areas are truly protected, experts told Carbon Brief in Mombasa.

    A report released by the Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute (STRI) at the summit detailed the “implementation gap” facing MPAs. It noted that “at least half of existing MPAs remain unimplemented or operationally ineffective”, while just 3.5% of the global ocean is “fully and highly” protected.

    Closing this gap will require “inclusive, sustained and context-sensitive design, management and funding approaches”, continued the report.

    Dr Ana Spalding, the director of STRI’s Adrienne Arsht community-based resilience solutions initiative, told Carbon Brief that, while MPAs are typically evaluated based on their biodiversity outcomes, the communities that rely on ocean ecosystems are also very important to consider. Focusing on just one aspect or the other will result in an MPA that is not effective, she added:

    “There’s going to be a sweet spot between the two.”

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    High Seas Treaty

    The Agreement on the Conservation and Sustainable Use of Marine Biological Diversity of Areas Beyond National Jurisdiction – also known as the BBNJ Agreement or the High Seas Treaty – entered into force on 17 January 2026.

    This followed the treaty, achieving the necessary 60 state ratifications on 19 September 2025. The week before the OOC, the east African nation of Comoros became the 90th party to ratify the agreement.

    The first Conference of the Parties for the High Seas Treaty will be held in January 2027 in New York City. At that meeting, parties will be tasked with creating the rules of procedure, establishing the subsidiary bodies and carrying out other foundational work.

    Because so many key decisions will be made at this COP1, it is “imperative” to have as many ratifications as possible before the conference begins, said Rebecca Hubbard, director of the High Seas Alliance, a coalition of non-governmental organisations that advocates for protection of the high seas. She added:

    “We hope that well over 100 countries will be party to the agreement by COP1, so that they can be at the decision-making table.”

    Container ship in the Indian Ocean. Image ID:
    Container ship in the Indian Ocean. Credit: imageBROKER.com / Alamy Stock Photo

    One of the key provisions of the High Seas Treaty is that it creates a mechanism for countries to establish MPAs in international waters. This will be key to achieving the “30 by 30” target of protecting 30% of the world’s land and oceans by 2030, Hubbard told Carbon Brief.

    However, establishing a high-seas MPA under the agreement requires a thorough process, including a review by a scientific and technical subsidiary body, a consultation with parties and a vote by the COP. Thus, in order to achieve the “30 by 30” target, parties will need to act swiftly to begin the process of establishing high-seas MPAs, according to Hubbard. She said:

    “It will be very, very tight. It’s definitely possible, but it requires really strong government leadership and prioritisation.”

    She added that it is “essential” that governments begin forming proposals for high-seas MPAs before the COP meets in January, noting that some countries are already doing so.

    At a side event on 16 June, representatives from South Africa and the EU detailed plans to propose a high-seas MPA that would link two existing protected areas in the sub-Antarctic – one South African and one French. Hubbard told Carbon Brief:

    “That’s a really great example of what we can do with the High Seas Treaty – having developed and developing countries working together, sharing knowledge [and] developing scientific approaches together. I think that’s the hopeful future, collaboration [and] cooperation, that the High Seas Treaty really provides.”

    Also at the summit, Senegal, Mauritania, the Gambia and Guinea-Bissau committed to creating “at least two” transboundary west African MPAs.

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    Deep-sea mining

    Although deep-sea mining was not a major focus of the Mombasa talks, it did feature at several side events.

    At a reception held by the Deep Sea Conservation Coalition (DSCC), Prof Rashid Sumaila of the University of British Columbia said the “wrong question is being asked” about deep-sea mining. He continued:

    “It’s not whether they have the minerals, it’s whether extracting them gives a net-positive impact.”

    Sumaila added that evaluating the risk of deep-sea mining will require a cost-benefit analysis that is as “broad and inclusive as possible”.

    At the same reception, the foreign-affairs minister of Malawi, Dr George Chaponda, announced the country’s support of a “precautionary pause” on seabed mining in international waters. This would prohibit mineral exploration in such areas until there is robust scientific evidence showing limited environmental harm.

    In doing so, Malawi became the first African country to support such a pause – and the 41st country overall to support a precautionary pause or moratorium on the activity.

    Chaponda told the assembled guests that Malawi’s existence as a landlocked country did not preclude its involvement in the deep-sea debates, urging:

    “To my fellow landlocked states: geography does not diminish our stake in the ocean.”

    Later in the week, Kenya and Madagascar also announced their support for such a pause.

    In a statement, David Willima, the Africa lead at DSCC, said:

    “The leadership shown by Malawi, Kenya and Madagascar sends a vital signal that African nations are stepping forward to defend the deep ocean and are unwilling to accept the risks of deep-sea mining.”

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    Coral reefs

    At the third UN Ocean Conference (UNOC), held in Nice, France, in June 2025, 11 countries and several partner organisations launched the high-level commitment to protect “climate-resilient” coral reefs.

    These are reefs that, according to scientists, have the “best chance of long-term survival in the face of climate change”.

    (UNOC occurs every three years and is specifically focused on achieving the UN Sustainable Development Goal on sustainable ocean use. Unlike the OOC, UNOC results in a negotiated political declaration.)

    A further four countries signed the commitment in Mombasa: Comoros, the Dominican Republic, Kenya and the UK. According to a representative at the launch event, the goal is to reach 31 signatories – representing 80% of the world’s coral cover – by COP31 in Turkey in November this year.

    Signatory governments pledged their commitment to:

    • Identifying climate-resilient reefs and prioritising their protection.
    • Integrating coral-reef protection into national strategies and plans.
    • Enacting policies to reduce the local pressures facing coral reefs, such as overfishing, pollution and overdevelopment.
    • Implementing national reef monitoring programmes and action plans.
    • Ensuring equity and working with local communities in protecting reefs.

    The Mombasa conference also coincided with the presentation of a new study on climate-resilient reefs, covered in the 17 June edition of Carbon Brief’s Cropped newsletter. (The study is currently in the final stages of peer review.)

    Coral reef in Raja Ampat, Indonesia. Credit: Noemi Merz / Ocean Image Bank
    Coral reef in Raja Ampat, Indonesia. Credit: Noemi Merz / Ocean Image Bank

    Building on a 2018 project that identified the 50 coral reefs that “form an optimal portfolio of reefs that are most likely to survive climate change”, the new work mapped more than 165,000km2 of coral reefs across 70 countries. These were found to have the best chances of persisting in the face of climate change and a warming, acidifying ocean.

    Dr Emily Darling, director of coral-reef conservation at the Wildlife Conservation Society and a co-author of the study, told Carbon Brief that “one of the key things countries can do that have these important reefs is elevate them into national policy” across multiple government sectors.

    She added that learning from these reefs will become vital over the coming months as El Niño warms the world’s oceans even further.

    Darling told Carbon Brief:

    “Climate change is not a single blanket on the world’s oceans. There are a lot of pockets of resilience, there are pockets of revolution for corals, and it’s all about finding those places, and how do we support them through the other local pressures that they experience that we know we can manage.”

    Although few monetary coral-related commitments were made at the summit, Norway pledged to allocate NOK 20m ($2m) to the Global Fund for Coral Reefs.

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    Fisheries

    One of the major achievements of the summit was the adoption of the Mombasa Declaration to advance fisheries transparency and combat illegal fishing.

    The declaration “recognise[s]” that illegal, unreported and unregulated (IUU) fishing is a major factor driving the unsustainable use of ocean resources and the degradation of marine ecosystems.

    We celebrate growing global momentum toward achieving sustainable ocean management by 2030. Yet we remain deeply concerned about the threats of overfishing, ecosystem degradation, declining biodiversity, and maritime insecurity. We recognize that these issues are enabled by Illegal, Unreported and Unregulated (IUU) fishing and associated human rights abuses. We highlight that opacity in parts of the global seafood sector undermines efforts to combat IUU fishing and associated abuses, and therefore regard increased fisheries transparency as a critical response. Transparency in ownership structures is especially important to ensure that the ultimate beneficial owners responsible for IUU fishing activities are identified and held accountable.
    Excerpt from the preamble to the Mombasa Declaration. Source: The Mombasa Declaration (2026)

    The declaration, which was signed by 16 national governments – eight of them from Africa – commits parties to follow a set of principles laid out in the Global Charter for Fisheries Transparency. This was developed and promoted by a group of civil society organisations known as the Coalition for Fisheries Transparency.

    The commitments in the Mombasa Declaration fall within four broad categories:

    • Supporting transparency and accountability in the fishing industry.
    • Strengthening monitoring of fishing activities and cooperating with enforcement actions.
    • Building capacity and supporting implementation of transparency reforms.
    • Strengthening ocean-observing systems and promoting the use of open-access data.

    The declaration notes that these principles should “apply to and benefit both small-scale and industrial fisheries” and support “broader ocean-management efforts”.

    At a press conference announcing the launch of the declaration, Ghanaian fisheries and aquaculture minister Emelia Arthur called it a “global testament of our collective commitment to transparent fisheries”. She emphasised the importance of the sector to all aspects of life, saying:

    “Fisheries is nutrition. Fisheries is food security. Fisheries is livelihoods. Fisheries is national security.”

    Fishing boat and gannets, Cornwall, UK.
    Fishing boat and gannets, Cornwall, UK. Credit: David Chapman / Alamy Stock Photo

    Several civil society organisations, philanthropies, community groups and governments also made separate fisheries-related commitments at the summit.

    The EU committed €46m ($52m) through its Horizon Europe research programme to fisheries work, including €32m ($36m) for “adaptive co-management strategies” and €14m ($16m) for research on conservation and sustainable management of migratory fishes.

    The EU and Italy both also announced contributions to the European Maritime, Fisheries and Aquaculture Fund.

    The government of Kenya made nine fisheries-related pledges at the summit, including committing to train compliance officers dedicated to combatting IUU fishing, developing management plans for all of its commercial fisheries and establishing bycatch mitigation measures.

    At the summit, the UN Food and Agriculture Organization launched its biannual “state of world fisheries and aquaculture” report.

    According to the report, the world set a new record for fisheries and aquaculture in 2024 – producing a total of 235m tonnes of fish and algae. This total consisted of nearly 92m tonnes of fish from capture fisheries, 103m tonnes of farmed fish and 40m tonnes of algae production.

    Aerial view of a fish farm.
    Aerial view of a fish farm. Credit: Scharfsinn / Alamy Stock Photo

    The amount of fish produced by capture fisheries has remained largely stable since 2000, while aquaculture production has increased by an average annual percentage rate of just under 5%, according to the report.

    While the largest growth has occurred in Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean, the vast majority of aquaculture production – 89% – occurs in Asia.

    The report also says that more than one-third of the world’s marine fish stocks are overfished, with significant variation based on region and species. It adds that climate change may play an increasing role in driving the unsustainability of fisheries in the future:

    “Despite the uncertainty of climate risks in the short, medium and long term, studies on the impacts of climate change on aquatic food systems around the world increasingly document the relevance and potential success of adaptation measures, urging decision-makers to integrate climate change considerations into fisheries and aquaculture planning and management.”

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    Did Colombia’s energy transition just come to a halt?

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    Christopher Wright is the principal analyst at CarbonBridge, a decarbonisation consulting firm.

    Less than two months ago, Colombia hosted the world’s first international conference on Transitioning Away from Fossil Fuels. This weekend, however, it appears that Colombia’s first ever leftist presidency has ended. Far-right candidate Abelardo de la Espriella, who was last week strongly endorsed by Donald Trump, will not only take the reins of government but also steer the future of Colombia’s energy transition.

    As the world’s sixth-largest coal exporter, and fourth largest oil exporter in Latin America, Colombia plays a critical role in the world’s energy markets. However, this role had shrunk under President Gustavo Petro’s administration, as it sought to proactively shift the country away from its fossil-fuel based economy, ahead of a potential oil and gas production shortage over the next decade.

    That could all change as De la Espriella’s takes power. Calling himself the Tiger (“El Tigre”), he has promised to focus on deregulation, exploit oil extraction “to the maximum” and leverage the energy sector as a key “engine of growth”.

    Colombia’s world-leading energy transition

    Over the last four years, Colombia has embarked on one of the most rapid and holistic energy transitions anywhere in the world. Shortly after coming to power in 2022, the government of Gustavo Petro halted new oil and gas exploration contracts, suspended all hydraulic fracking pilots, and pledged to end the development of new unabated coal power plants.

    While many of these moves faced domestic and legislative challenges, they were widely praised in climate circles around the world.

    Colombia soon became a pivotal member of the Powering Past Coal Alliance, the Beyond Oil and Gas Alliance and the Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Alliance. It then went on to host the biodiversity COP in 2024, launch a $40-billion climate transition investment portfolio, and famously, host the Santa Marta conference earlier this year.

    While fossil fuels still comprise around 7% of Colombia’s GDP and 56% of its total exports, there were already signs that the transition policies had begun to have an effect.

    Coal production last year fell to its lowest level in the last 22 years. According to the Colombian national association of coal producers, coal export volumes declined by 23% in 2025. While the oil sector has not seen an equivalent precipitous drop, production levels have remained historically low since COVID.

    What about its domestic electricity sector?

    Since the 1970s Colombia’s electricity sector has been dominated by large hydro-electric dams, endowing it with some of the lowest carbon electrons anywhere in the world. Today, close to 70% of its electricity supply comes from these large dams.

    However, electricity demand rose by close to 10% under the Petro government. To meet this demand, total installed electricity capacity has expanded by a similar figure, and solar power has made up over 70% of new electricity capacity since.

    As a result, by the end of 2025, gas power generation in the electricity sector had hit its lowest point since 2018. Wind power had doubled, and solar power generation had risen by over 630%. Colombia’s renewable energy association predicts that, by the end of 2026, the country may be home to more than 4.2 GW of installed variable renewable energy capacity.

    Far-right jumps on energy challenges

    Despite the progress, the last three years have been an incredibly challenging period for Colombia’s energy sector.

    During Petro’s first two years in office, inflation remained above 10%, and interest rates stayed above 13% for most of 2023. This put a pause on new energy investments, as foreign direct investment fell by a third since 2022.

    On top of this, Colombia suffered through an El Niño-fuelled drought in 2023-24, crippling its hydro-electric power supply. This forced the country to turn to expensive gas and coal power, just as both sectors had effectively begun to pull back. This sent electricity prices through the roof, increasing nearly 40% in a single year, and led the Petro government to intervene with price controls, aiming to protect everyday Colombians.

      Unsurprisingly, this made energy investors even more cautious. By the end of 2023, GDP growth had plummeted and renewable energy investments fell by 70%. Since then, all the major credit agencies have downgraded the country’s credit rating, making it even shakier to invest.

      As a result, even with the new solar coming online, and 1.2 GW of additional hydro-power from the Ituango dam expected by 2028, the country could still face a major energy deficit by 2027, with permitting delays halting project developments, and 5.1 GW of approved projects unable to reach financial close.

      Challenging domestic debate

      This has led to a challenging domestic debate on energy policy. While 96% of Colombians want to see solar expand further, they have been understandably frustrated by high electricity bills and limited economic growth.

      As a result, De la Espriella’s campaign, which has largely focused on taking a hardline stance to combat growing concerns around security and crime, was relatively open to solar power, but sought to blame Colombia’s current energy crisis on the speed of its current energy transition.

      Branding himself as neither a climate denialist nor “dogmatic environmentalist” the incoming president who will take office in August, will likely seek to revoke the ban on new hydrocarbon exploration contracts, legalise fracking and restructure the national oil company, Ecopetrol.

      While he is unlikely to cancel market-driven projects and may reduce regulatory hold-ups, it is also likely that he will shift away from the government’s recent overwhelming support for long-renewable energy and battery storage projects, which have driven much of the recent uptake in solar power.

      Future of energy transition in doubt

      In a country of close to 54 million people, the final election count was only decided by about 250,000 votes. However, this weekend’s margin belies the magnitude of the shift that will likely now take place.

      With the country facing a potential domestic energy shortage 2027, President-elect De la Espriella has promised to revitalise the hydrocarbon economy, shifting Colombia’s recent energy transition on an entirely new course.

      While this may unlock some regulatory challenges hindering renewables roll-out, broader support mechanisms for solar projects will likely be dismantled, and the broader economic transition abandoned, along with its recent flurry of international climate alliances.

      He will also take his place among a wave of right-leaning Presidents that have swept to power across the continent in the last 18 months. This has seen right-wing electoral victories across Ecuador, Bolivia, Chile, Costa Rica, Argentina and now Colombia, with Peru’s Keiko Fujimori potentially joining the club soon – pending a final vote count.

      With the Brazilian elections scheduled for October, and run-off scenarios between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro still far too close to call, 2026 will undoubtedly be a pivotal year for Latin America’s energy future.

      The post Did Colombia’s energy transition just come to a halt? appeared first on Climate Home News.

      Did Colombia’s energy transition just come to a halt?

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