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China Briefing handpicks and explains the most important climate and energy stories from China over the past fortnight. Subscribe for free here.
Key developments
Tariffs and trade restrictions
US BAN: China has placed an export ban on shipments to the US of gallium, germanium and antimony, plus further restricted exports of certain types of graphite to the country, in a “rapid retaliation by Beijing against new export controls from Washington”, the Financial Times said. It added that “the immediate impact of the measures was unclear, given that the US had been diversifying its supply chains”. Analysis by Carbon Brief found that previous country-agnostic export controls on the minerals, all of which are used in low-carbon technologies, had a limited impact on supply chains, with Chinese exports either resuming after a short dip or remaining stable. Analysis by consultancy Trivium China stated that one of China’s motives with the ban could be to “warn the incoming Trump administration” against “ramping up economic and trade pressure”.
SOLAR TARIFFS: Meanwhile, the US has also imposed a “new round of tariffs on solar panel imports” from Malaysia, Cambodia, Vietnam and Thailand, following accusations by a US industry lobby of Chinese-owned factories in the four nations “dumping products into the [global] market”, Reuters reported. In response, China’s commerce ministry expressed its “concern over the US’ intention to politicise and weaponise trade investigations”, the state-run newspaper China Daily said. It cited a commerce ministry spokesperson saying that Chinese solar companies in southeast Asia have made “positive contributions to the local economic and social development”. Another Reuters article noted that Malaysia has “urged” Chinese companies not to use it “as a base to rebadge products to avoid US tariffs”.
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CHINA ‘HAWK’: On 6 December, president-elect Donald Trump nominated China “hawk” senator David Perdue for US ambassador to China, BBC News reported. Perdue wrote in the Washington Examiner in September 2024: “China continues to laugh at US attempts to partner with it on climate change…We should withdraw from the Paris climate agreement, as it commits the US to fund it primarily while giving China a free pass.”
CONTENT REQUIREMENTS: Meanwhile, according to Nikkei Asia, the EU is “adding restrictions to its [European Hydrogen Bank] subsidy program for ‘green’ hydrogen production that effectively lock out Chinese-made equipment” by stating that projects “will not be eligible if electrolyser stacks…sourced from China account for more than 25% of output capacity”. The Financial Times reported that the EU’s new €4.6bn tender for “technologies for decarbonisation” will only be accessible to Chinese companies that “agree to transfer intellectual property rights to the EU”, according to Teresa Ribera, the EU’s new executive vice president for a “clean, just and competitive transition”.
Carbon concentrations reporting
CLIMBING CO2: The amount of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere above China’s land area rose in 2023, reaching approximately 421 parts per million (ppm), according to the country’s newly released greenhouse gas bulletin for 2023, reported the Communist party-affiliated newspaper People’s Daily. This rise of 2.3ppm was “slightly lower” than the average annual growth in concentrations of 2.4ppm over the past decade, the newspaper added. The 21st Century Herald, a business newspaper, also covered the bulletin’s launch, noting that the average concentrations of methane and nitrous oxide in 2023 rose year-on-year at a rate “lower than the global [average]”.
EXPERT WARNING: Separately, a new report found that, “while the civil sector has achieved significant synergistic emission reductions of CO2 and air pollutants”, the power and heating sectors are seeing “dual-growth” of carbon emissions and air pollution, while the emissions reductions of industry and transport “need to be further unleashed”, finance newspaper the Economic Daily reported. The study, released by the China Clean Air Policy Partnership – a consortium of leading universities, government-linked research institutes, industry associations and other stakeholders – assesses the “challenges China faces on the road to carbon neutrality and clean air synergy and proposes solutions”, current affairs news outlet China News said. It quoted professor He Kebin, dean of the Tsinghua University Institute for Carbon Neutrality, saying at the launch event that the upcoming shift from “dual-control of energy” to “dual-control of carbon” marks a “critical period” in China’s “green transformation”.
WEATHER IMPACT: Meanwhile, China “reported its warmest autumn this year since records began”, with average temperatures standing at “1.5C higher than the average year”, Agence-France Presse said. Scientists in China are searching for ways to develop climate-resilient potatoes – given the plants are “particularly vulnerable to heat” – in order to “protect [the country’s] food supplies”, Reuters reported. Also, “continued rains followed by extreme high temperatures” have severely damaged China’s kiwi harvest, according to Bloomberg.
Grid reform efforts continue
UNIFIED GRID: The China Electricity Council (CEC) launched a “blue book” – the term used for research reports or policy proposals issued by government departments or government-affiliated organisations – outlining a “strategic roadmap for future development” of a national unified power market, industry news outlet International Energy Net reported. It quoted a deputy director of the National Energy Administration (NEA) saying a unified power market is crucial for “deepening power sector reforms” and promoting the energy transition. Energy news outlet BJX News also covered the document’s release, which outlined a timetable for the plan: namely, that “preliminary construction [of a unified market] will be completed in 2025, full construction will be completed in 2029, and improvements and upgrading will be completed in 2035”. It added that key elements of the plan include “convergence” of provincial mechanisms, “participation” of large-scale renewable energy bases and “market adaptation” to the energy transition.
GREEN GRID: Separately, the CEC also reported that China’s electrification rate – the share of energy demand met by electricity – was “expected to reach 34% by 2030”, financial news outlet Yicai reported. Separately, China will “set another record” for solar capacity growth this year, with new installations expected to climb from last year’s 217 gigawatts (GW) to reach 230-260GW in 2024, according to an announcement by the China Photovoltaic Industry Association covered by Bloomberg. In addition, China’s installed wind capacity has exceeded 500 gigawatts (GW) and now accounts for 50% of the global total, state broadcaster CCTV reported.
STABLE GRID: The NEA released guiding opinions that aim to “clarify the scope of new businesses” in the energy sector and “facilitate [their] connection to the grid and operation”, following the rapid expansion of China’s renewable energy sector, an NEA official told International Energy Net. Finance newspaper Securities Times quoted Lin Boqiang, dean of the China Energy Policy Research Institute at Xiamen University, saying the new rules “aim to lessen pressure on the grid and ensure safe and stable operation of the power system”.
‘Green growth’ at the fore of key economic meeting
XI’S ‘KEY TASKS’: President Xi Jinping told policymakers that “synergistically promoting carbon reduction, pollution reduction and green growth” was one of nine “key tasks” for 2025 at the central economic work conference (CEWC), an annual high-level economic policy meeting that ended on 12 December, Xinhua reported. The state news agency added that Xi’s speech underscored the need to “step up the overall green transformation of economic and social development” and “deepen reform of the ecological civilisation system”, in part by creating a “healthy ecosystem” for low-carbon industries and “cultivating new growth points, such as green buildings”. It said the speech also mentioned that China will “establish a number of zero-carbon parks, promote the construction of a national carbon market, and establish a product carbon footprint management system and a carbon labelling certification system”. These themes had been raised in a meeting of the Politburo, the decision-making body of the Chinese communist party, a few days prior, according to China Daily.
GROWING PAINS: The CEWC meeting included “pledges to take a more proactive approach” in stimulating economic growth, “but gave no details on new stimulus measures”, the Associated Press reported, adding that China would “raise its fiscal deficit”, “stabilise the property market” and “boost consumer spending”. The International Energy Agency “lifted next year’s oil-demand estimates” in response to the anticipated “impact of China’s stimulus measures”, although it added “the pace of growth is expected to remain subdued”, the Wall Street Journal said. Reuters reported that “Chinese leaders signalled…they are ready to deploy whatever stimulus is needed to counter the impact of expected US trade tariffs on next year’s economic growth”, adding that the exact size of the stimulus will “depend on” the Trump administration’s tariffs and other policy measures against China.
HIGH-QUALITY GROWTH: China is “planning a fresh set of policies to propel growth in the equipment manufacturing sector, focusing on nurturing new growth engines such as new energy vehicles”, China Daily said, in tandem with calls from the CEWC and Politburo meetings to “nurture technological innovation”. A China Daily editorial argued that “Chinese policymakers are exercising tremendous prudence” to minimise risks and uncertainties while pursuing “new quality productive forces and innovation”.
Spotlight
How China’s renewables rollout boosts its ‘war on sand’
At the ongoing COP16 UN summit on desertification in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, Carbon Brief hears from experts on the links between China’s rapidly expanding desert solar farms and Beijing’s decades-long efforts to keep sand in check.
China’s effort to build large solar power “bases” in and around the desert is a major part of its current renewable plan.
The initiative, which has expanded rapidly in the country’s arid north and northwest, is also part of its campaign to combat desertification, an issue increasingly exacerbated by climate change.
For more than four decades, Beijing has been trying to prevent sand from degrading its land with an afforestation programme called the “Three-North Shelterbelt” (三北防护林).
Over the past two years, the programme – described as China’s “war on sand” by the media – has been boosted by the development of large-scale solar bases in far-flung regions, such as Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia.
Installing solar panels in the desert can not only generate power, but also help prevent sand dunes from moving, according to Dr He Jijiang, executive deputy director of the Research Center for Energy Transition and Social Development at Tsinghua University, Beijing.
Energy companies’ investments also provide financial support to many regions’ sand-control campaigns – an apparent obstacle in the past – Dr He told Carbon Brief at a side event in the China pavilion at the ongoing COP16 talks.
Taming of the sand
China is one of the worst-hit countries by desertification, which essentially means land degradation in dry lands.
Nearly 18% of China’s landmass – roughly seven times the size of the UK – is affected by the issue, according to statistics reported by Guan Zhi’ou, director of China’s National Forestry and Grassland Administration and the head of the Chinese delegation to COP16, in November.
China’s effort to combat desertification has a strong link with its – and the world’s – climate actions.
Soil is the second largest natural carbon sink on Earth after oceans and stores a large amount of carbon. When land degrades, not only does it lose the ability to store as much carbon, it can also release carbon into the atmosphere, driving further climate change.
On the other hand, climate change accelerates land degradation and China is on the front line. The country has seen the largest total area shift from non-dryland into drylands over the past three decades, according to a major scientific report published by the UNCCD at COP16.
Since the introduction of the Three-North Shelterbelt programme in 1978, China has adopted a series of measures to fight desertification, from planting sand-blocking vegetation to laying straw on the ground in the shape of checkerboards to prevent its vast deserts from expanding.
Solar solution
China’s plan for renewable energy from 2021 to 2025 calls for the “large-scale development” of its sand-plus-solar anti-desertification method.
The concept centres around managing arid areas via building and maintaining solar farms. It stems from years of experience accumulated by Chinese solar developers, which have built solar farms in the desert for more than a decade – with varying degrees of success.
“Building solar farms needs a lot of space. China has vast deserts, so [companies] wanted to take advantage of it,” Dr He explained.
But to operate solar farms in such harsh conditions, these companies must first take various protective measures – and these measures helped combat desertification, too.
For example, companies need to put up fences around their solar farms to stop animals from entering, install anti-dust nets to prevent sand from gathering on equipment and make straw checkerboards around their bases to prevent nearby sand dunes from shifting, Dr He said.
Solar panels also bring benefits to the ground underneath. For example, they can reduce water evaporation by blocking out direct sunshine, according to Dr Chen Siyu, a professor at the college of atmospheric sciences at Lanzhou University in Lanzhou, a city situated on the edge of the Gobi desert in China.
Solar panels can “significantly increase” the soil moisture of dry regions and, therefore, help plants to grow, Dr Chen told Carbon Brief. A 2021 study conducted in northwest China projected that the soil moisture would increase by up to 113.6% when it is sheltered.
“Solar panels can also form a natural barrier, helping to shed wind speed and prevent dust storms from occurring and spreading,” she said.
Ramping up transition
The construction of solar farms also injects financial support to many regions’ sand-control campaigns, providing incentives for them to carry on, Dr He noted.
“In the past, planting trees only brought ecological benefits, not economic returns,” he said. “Now, if a company wants to build a solar power station, it needs to cover all related costs, from hiring equipment to growing plants.”
Ramping up the solar-plus-sand method can scale up China’s renewable deployment, as well as improving soil conditions by bringing greenery, vegetable plots and livestock to the desert and barren land. Because of this, dryland has become “a type of resource”, Dr He said.
This Spotlight is by freelance climate journalist Xiaoying You for Carbon Brief. A full-length version of the article is available on the Carbon Brief website.
Watch, read, listen
LOW-BALLING: Chinese climate envoy Liu Zhenmin, in a lengthy interview with China Newsweek, reflected on the “disappoint[ing]” $300bn finance goal and pushed back against questions of China “playing a stronger leadership role” in climate negotiations.
LOOKING AHEAD: The Asia Society Policy Institute wrote that, against the backdrop of an economic slowdown, China’s international climate pledge next year, coal trajectory and renewables buildout are “key things to watch” in a forecast for 2025.
PUTIN’S PIPELINE: State news agency Xinhua visited a hub of the recently completed China-Russia east-route gas pipeline to explore how it supplies Shanghai and other eastern provinces.
TRUMP EFFECT: A podcast by the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies discussed how the next Trump administration’s China policy could affect China’s own energy activities and climate action.
17%
The share of China’s greenhouse gas emissions produced by the steel industry, according to Reuters. The newswire added that China has published draft rules for comment on greenhouse gas emissions reporting for steel-makers, in preparation for the industry’s entry into the national emissions trading scheme.
New science
Global and Planetary Change
Compound drought and hot extremes (CDHEs) will increase across many regions of China over the coming century, especially in the eastern and central Songnen Plain and northern Sichuan Basin, a new study found. The authors evaluated changes in CDHEs across multiple croplands in China between 1961-2010 and 2031-80, using a large ensemble model, rainfall data and temperature data. “These results underscore the high risk of the spatial compounding of extremes at multiple croplands in China in the future,” the study said.
Impact of computing infrastructure on carbon emissions in China
Scientific Reports
A new paper found an upside-down “U” shaped relationship between carbon emission intensity – the emissions per unit of economic output – and computing infrastructure in Chinese cities, with emissions intensity initially increasing with a rise in computing infrastructure, before plateauing and then decreasing. The authors used data from 279 prefecture-level cities collected between 2008 to 2021. The findings are “particularly pronounced in central regions, hub cities and moderately digitally developed cities”, they said.
China Briefing is compiled by Wanyuan Song and Anika Patel. It is edited by Wanyuan Song and Dr Simon Evans. Please send tips and feedback to china@carbonbrief.org
The post China Briefing 12 December 2024: Export controls; Carbon concentration figures; ‘War on sand’ appeared first on Carbon Brief.
China Briefing 12 December 2024: Export controls; Carbon concentration figures; ‘War on sand’
Mining companies are showcasing new technologies which they say could extract more lithium – a key ingredient for electric vehicle (EV) batteries – from South America’s vast, dry salt flats with lower environmental impacts.
But environmentalists question whether the expensive technology is ready to be rolled out at scale, while scientists warn it could worsen the depletion of scarce freshwater resources in the region and say more research is needed.
The “lithium triangle” – an area spanning Argentina, Bolivia and Chile – holds more than half of the world’s known lithium reserves. Here, lithium is found in salty brine beneath the region’s salt flats, which are among some of the driest places on Earth.
Lithium mining in the region has soared, driven by booming demand to manufacture batteries for EVs and large-scale energy storage.
Mining companies drill into the flats and pump the mineral-rich brine to the surface, where it is left under the sun in giant evaporation pools for 18 months until the lithium is concentrated enough to be extracted.
The technique is relatively cheap but requires vast amounts of land and water. More than 90% of the brine’s original water content is lost to evaporation and freshwater is needed at different stages of the process.
One study suggested that the Atacama Salt Flat in Chile is sinking by up to 2 centimetres a year because lithium-rich brine is being pumped at a faster rate than aquifers are being recharged.
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Lithium extraction in the region has led to repeated conflicts with local communities, who fear the impact of the industry on local water supplies and the region’s fragile ecosystem.
The lithium industry’s answer is direct lithium extraction (DLE), a group of technologies that selectively extracts the silvery metal from brine without the need for vast open-air evaporation ponds. DLE, it argues, can reduce both land and water use.
Direct lithium extraction investment is growing
The technology is gaining considerable attention from mining companies, investors and governments as a way to reduce the industry’s environmental impacts while recovering more lithium from brine.
DLE investment is expected to grow at twice the pace of the lithium market at large, according to research firm IDTechX.
There are around a dozen DLE projects at different stages of development across South America. The Chilean government has made it a central pillar of its latest National Lithium Strategy, mandating its use in new mining projects.
Last year, French company Eramet opened Centenario Ratones in northern Argentina, the first plant in the world to attempt to extract lithium solely using DLE.
Eramet’s lithium extraction plant is widely seen as a major test of the technology. “Everyone is on the edge of their seats to see how this progresses,” said Federico Gay, a lithium analyst at Benchmark Mineral Intelligence. “If they prove to be successful, I’m sure more capital will venture into the DLE space,” he said.
More than 70 different technologies are classified as DLE. Brine is still extracted from the salt flats but is separated from the lithium using chemical compounds or sieve-like membranes before being reinjected underground.
DLE techniques have been used commercially since 1996, but only as part of a hybrid model still involving evaporation pools. Of the four plants in production making partial use of DLE, one is in Argentina and three are in China.
Reduced environmental footprint
New-generation DLE technologies have been hailed as “potentially game-changing” for addressing some of the issues of traditional brine extraction.
“DLE could potentially have a transformative impact on lithium production,” the International Lithium Association found in a recent report on the technology.
Firstly, there is no need for evaporation pools – some of which cover an area equivalent to the size of 3,000 football pitches.
“The land impact is minimal, compared to evaporation where it’s huge,” said Gay.
The process is also significantly quicker and increases lithium recovery. Roughly half of the lithium is lost during evaporation, whereas DLE can recover more than 90% of the metal in the brine.
In addition, the brine can be reinjected into the salt flats, although this is a complicated process that needs to be carefully handled to avoid damaging their hydrological balance.
However, Gay said the commissioning of a DLE plant is currently several times more expensive than a traditional lithium brine extraction plant.
“In theory it works, but in practice we only have a few examples,” Gay said. “Most of these companies are promising to break the cost curve and ramp up indefinitely. I think in the next two years it’s time to actually fulfill some of those promises.”
Freshwater concerns
However, concerns over the use of freshwater persist.
Although DLE doesn’t require the evaporation of brine water, it often needs more freshwater to clean or cool equipment.
A 2023 study published in the journal Nature reviewed 57 articles on DLE that analysed freshwater consumption. A quarter of the articles reported significantly higher use of freshwater than conventional lithium brine mining – more than 10 times higher in some cases.
“These volumes of freshwater are not available in the vicinity of [salt flats] and would even pose problems around less-arid geothermal resources,” the study found.
The company tracking energy transition minerals back to the mines
Dan Corkran, a hydrologist at the University of Massachusetts, recently published research showing that the pumping of freshwater from the salt flats had a much higher impact on local wetland ecosystems than the pumping of salty brine. “The two cannot be considered equivalent in a water footprint calculation,” he said, explaining that doing so would “obscure the true impact” of lithium extraction.
Newer DLE processes are “claiming to require little-to-no freshwater”, he added, but the impact of these technologies is yet to be thoroughly analysed.
Dried-up rivers
Last week, Indigenous communities from across South America held a summit to discuss their concerns over ongoing lithium extraction.
The meeting, organised by the Andean Wetlands Alliance, coincided with the 14th International Lithium Seminar, which brought together industry players and politicians from Argentina and beyond.
Indigenous representatives visited the nearby Hombre Muerto Salt Flat, which has borne the brunt of nearly three decades of lithium extraction. Today, a lithium plant there uses a hybrid approach including DLE and evaporation pools.
Local people say the river “dried up” in the years after the mine opened. Corkran’s study linked a 90% reduction in wetland vegetation to the lithium’s plant freshwater extraction.
Pia Marchegiani, of Argentine environmental NGO FARN, said that while DLE is being promoted by companies as a “better” technique for extraction, freshwater use remained unclear. “There are many open questions,” she said.
AI and satellite data help researchers map world’s transition minerals rush
Stronger regulations
Analysts speaking to Climate Home News have also questioned the commercial readiness of the technology.
Eramet was forced to downgrade its production projections at its DLE plant earlier this year, blaming the late commissioning of a crucial component.
Climate Home News asked Eramet for the water footprint of its DLE plant and whether its calculations excluded brine, but it did not respond.
For Eduardo Gigante, an Argentina-based lithium consultant, DLE is a “very promising technology”. But beyond the hype, it is not yet ready for large-scale deployment, he said.
Strong regulations are needed to ensure that the environmental impact of the lithium rush is taken seriously, Gigante added.
In Argentina alone, there are currently 38 proposals for new lithium mines. At least two-thirds are expected to use DLE. “If you extract a lot of water without control, this is a problem,” said Gigante. “You need strong regulations, a strong government in order to control this.”
The post Efforts to green lithium extraction face scrutiny over water use appeared first on Climate Home News.
Efforts to green lithium extraction face scrutiny over water use
Climate Change
Maryland’s Conowingo Dam Settlement Reasserts State’s Clean Water Act Authority but Revives Dredging Debate
The new agreement commits $340 million in environmental investments tied to the Conowingo Dam’s long-term operation, setting an example of successful citizen advocacy.
Maryland this month finalized a $340 million deal with Constellation Energy to relicense the Conowingo Dam in Cecil County, ending years of litigation and regulatory uncertainty. The agreement restores the state’s authority to enforce water quality standards under the Clean Water Act and sets a possible precedent for dozens of hydroelectric relicensing cases nationwide expected in coming years.
Local officials see millions of dollars in tax revenue, but more than 950 residents who signed ballot petitions fear endless noise, pollution and higher electric rates.
This is the second of three articles about Michigan communities organizing to stop the construction of energy-intensive computing facilities.
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Efforts to green lithium extraction face scrutiny over water use
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