After nearly a year of talks, government negotiators on Saturday struck a tentative deal on what a new fund for climate victims will look like.
But although they grudgingly agreed on what to recommend to Cop28, members of the loss and damage transitional committee warned that their bosses may want to reject this advice and re-hash debates in Dubai.
At Cop27 climate talks in Egypt last year, governments agreed to set up a loss and damage fund to channel money to those suffering from destruction caused by climate change. They tasked a 24-member transitional committee to work out the details this year and report back to Cop28.
After five gruelling meetings, that committee completed what co-chair Outi Honkatukia described as “mission impossible” on Saturday night at a five-star hotel in Abu Dhabi.
Developing countries conceded to let the World Bank host the new fund on a temporary basis, with a view to making it independent later. They had reservations about high costs and the US’ ideological influence on the World Bank.
The US, on the other hand, made limited headway in broadening the pool of donors expected to contribute.
Bad blood
US negotiator Christina Chan expressed the most unhappiness.
Her last-minute requests to weaken developed countries responsibility to pay into the fund were rejected by the committee’s co-chairs, who said it was a “take it or leave it” text as there was no time left to negotiate.
Although the meetings cameras did not pick this up, developing countries lead negotiator Pedro Luis Pedroso Cuesta claimed that Chan left the room as co-chairs were about to finalise agreement. “Leaving the room was meant to [paralyse] the committee,” Cuesta said.
But, hearing no objections, co-chair Outi Honkatukia banged her gavel to signal agreement. As negotiators applaud, the meeting room’s camera showed Chan walking across the room back to her seat.
A few minutes later, she said that she had objected to the text a couple of times.”If this is consensus-based, I’m not sure why there is now a decision,” she said.
On the other side of the debate, Egyptian negotiator Mohammed Nasr said he was “not happy with the text” but would accept it for now.
He added: “Once we are at the Cop[28], there will be discussions around the document… we have several reservations that we have highlighted.”
Bouncing her crying baby up and down, Armenia’s deputy environment minister Gayane Gabrielyan asked: “Is it we who will be the final decision-makers?”
She added: “I don’t think so. We are going to Cop. We are going to big bosses with our suggestions.”
Who pays?
A major split was that developing countries wanted more emphasis on the group of countries the UN classified in 1992 as developed being responsible for paying into the fund.
These developed countries wanted to broaden out responsibility to wealthier countries still classified as developing, like Singapore, Qatar and Saudi Arabia.
They compromised on an agreement which "urges" developed countries "to continue to provide support" but only "encourage[s]" other countries to provide support.
It "invites financial contributions with developed country Parties continuing to take the lead to provide financial resources" for setting up the fund.
Celebrating the agreement, the EU's lead climate negotiator Wopke Hoeskstra posted on X that "all parties can contribute to it - and I believe that all who have the ability to should do so".
This evening, EU negotiators in Abu Dhabi reached an important agreement with global partners on #lossanddamage.
The world will get a fund focused on support for the most vulnerable. All parties can contribute to it - and I believe that all who have the ability to should do so.
— Wopke Hoekstra (@WBHoekstra) November 4, 2023
The negotiators agreed there will be a fundraising round for the fund every four years, like there is for the UN's Green Climate Fund. But donors can give money at any time.
Money can come from the private sector or from innovative sources, which aren't specified but could include taxes on fossil fuels, shares or airplane tickets.
Who benefits?
Developed and developing countries were split on who should be able to receive money from the fund, after governments at Cop27 agreed it should be restricted to developing countries which are "particularly vulnerable".
Developing countries argued they are all particularly vulnerable. But developed nations wanted to restrict funding to small island developing states (Sids) and the world's least developed countries (LDCs).
They settled on just repeating similar language to Cop27 that "developing countries that are particulaly vulnerable" to climate change are eligible. There is no agreed definition of vulnerability.
They agreed that all developing countries should be able to access the fund's resources when that is "consistent with policies and procedures" that the fund's board establish in the future.
The board will have a majority of developing country representatives, despite a US push to weight it towards developed ones.
Developed countries wanted to set up sub-funds, so they could finance their preferred areas like support for small islands, climate-driven migration or slow onset events like sea level rise.
But developing countries succesfully opposed this, arguing that the fund's board not the wealthy donor countries should decide where the money goes.
There will be a minimum floor for the percentage of money that goes to Sids and LDCs.
The EU's lead negotiator Wopke Hoekstra posted that the fund will be "focused on support for the most vulnerable".
Who hosts?
The US and other developed countries wanted the fund to be hosted by the World Bank.
This would mean it would be based at the bank's headquarters in Washington DC and its staff will be employees of the bank.
Developing countries resisted this, accusing the bank of charging high hosting fees, a weak climate record and compromising its fund's independence.
The bank's head is chosen by its biggest shareholder, the US government. Opposing the bank as host, developing countries lead negotiator Pedro Luis Pedroso Cuesta said last month: "We know the history. We know the politics. We know the manipulation."
Avoid our mistake: Don’t let World Bank host loss and damage fund
They compromised on making the bank the interim host for four years, with a number of assurances that the fund will become independent.
Celebrating the agreement, Cop28 president Sultan Al Jaber said in a statement that the committee had "broken deadlocks and found common ground to deliver clear recommendations".
He added: "Parties must seal the deal in Dubai... billions of people, lives and livelihoods who are vulnerable to the effects of climate change depend upon the adoption of this recommended approach at Cop28."
The post World Bank to initially host loss and damage fund under draft deal appeared first on Climate Home News.
World Bank to initially host loss and damage fund under draft deal
The launch of the Africa Energy Bank (AEB) has been put back yet again, raising doubts about the institution’s future ability to finance fossil fuel projects – its main objective – as global lenders retreat from such investments over climate concerns, experts told Climate Home News.
The bank, which had been billed to launch in September after a series of delays, is now scheduled to begin operations in November, according to the head of the African Energy Chamber, an advocacy body for the continent’s oil and gas sector.
Even as the world aims to transition away from fossil fuels, many African leaders have made clear they want to continue exploring and extracting the continent’s large oil and gas deposits – estimated at around 125 billion barrels of crude and over 600 trillion cubic feet of gas – to boost economic development.
As a group, Africa sided with a number of powerful oil-and-gas producing nations in blocking progress on negotiations to craft a global roadmap to transition away from fossil fuels at last year’s UN COP30 climate talks, although some countries did individually support the proposal.
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Meanwhile, major projects under development across the continent – including the 1,443-km East African Crude Oil Pipeline (EACOP) and Dangote’s 700,000-barrel-per-day Kenyan refinery – show that African governments see oil and gas as playing a significant role in meeting their energy and economic needs for many years to come.
In 2022, at a gathering of the African Petroleum Producers’ Organization (APPO) in oil-rich Angola, ministers from its member states adopted a resolution to create the Africa Energy Bank to finance projects for the production, use and trade of oil, gas and broader energy sources.
African control over energy resources
An article on the APPO website explains that the bank was conceived as a way to overcome “disenchantment” with fossil fuels among “the international community” which it said had crystallised around the “energy transition” concept.
“If Western countries, after having long taken advantage of the energy sources they now revile to develop, can afford the luxury of abandoning them, this is not the case in Africa,” it adds, noting that many of the continent’s economies are still largely dependent on oil and gas revenues.
A separate web page about the bank, also hosted on APPO’s website, says its objectives include financing the exploration, production and refining of oil and gas, as well as supporting member states in transitioning from fossil fuels to cleaner energy sources “while ensuring energy security”.
Said Addi, a former executive with Shell and energy commodities trading house Gunvor, said the new bank was judged necessary because financing for hydrocarbons from many traditional international lenders has become constrained.
In trying to fill this financing gap, Africa is not simply setting up another fund to support oil and gas, he added. “It is also an attempt to give African countries greater control over how their energy resources and infrastructure are financed,” he explained.
Nigeria to host the AEB
The energy bank – a joint initiative of APPO and the African Export–Import Bank (Afreximbank) – has so far suffered several delays and is almost two years behind schedule. The initial plan was to start operations in January 2025, with Nigeria as the host country, but the bank’s opening was delayed to June of that year to allow Nigeria time to finalise the construction of the bank’s headquarters in Abuja.
After the government announced the completion of the offices in late November 2025, a new launch date was set for January 2026, which was moved back to April, June and then September. Now it has shifted again to November, raising concerns that the institution may be losing momentum.
Former Shell executive Addi said that if the capital is eventually paid in, the bank becomes operational and its first projects are commercially credible, then the delays will be regarded as normal teething troubles in setting up a multilateral institution. But, he added, scepticism will be justified if it continues to stall.
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Baron Lamarré, an oil and gas expert and former Petronas oil trader, said that missing “three deadlines in a row is not normal”, and warned that if the timeline slips again, “the story flips from ‘ambitious institution finding its footing’ to ‘good idea that lost momentum before it found any’.”
The Nigerian government, APPO and Afreximbank did not respond to requests for comment by the time of publication.
The funding challenge
The Africa Energy Bank is targeting base capital of $5 billion, with plans to scale up to $120 billion within five years by mobilising private-sector funds. However, it is expected to start operations with initial seed capital of $500 million.
The funding plan is to have the 18 member countries of the APPO contribute $83 million each to the bank as equity for a combined $1.5 billion. Afreximbank, other non-APPO African countries and investors outside the continent are expected to provide the remaining $3.5 billion.
But even the initial $500 million has not been easy to mobilise. In May, APPO Secretary-General Farid Ghezali called on members to deliver on their pledges towards the startup goal before the end of June. But the delays suggest this may not have been met, with experts saying Africa may be finding it difficult to self-fund its oil and gas projects in the absence of international capital.
Lamarré said every extension of the deadline points to the fact that “raising fossil fuel capital in Africa without the majors and their financing networks is brutally hard”.
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Since 2020, Western lenders, export credit agencies and insurers have been in steady retreat from African hydrocarbons, he said, while oil majors are divesting their African assets, handing over fields to smaller local operators whose credit ratings are not high enough to borrow cheaply.
Even capital from China and the Gulf, which has partially filled the gap, cannot match the volume, tenor or pricing that Western investors once offered, Lamarré argued.
“If mobilising the first $500 million of seed capital [for the AEB] has taken this long, that’s the clearest signal yet of how steep the climb to $120 billion looks,” he said, noting that the continent’s energy financing gap is as large as $30 billion-$45 billion per year.
Africa’s investment landscape, meanwhile, has been shifting. While foreign direct investment dropped from a 2024 peak, inflows remained roughly one-third above the continent’s long-term average in 2025, according to the 2026 World Investment Report from UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD). They are concentrated in a few sectors including critical minerals needed for renewable energy technologies, battery manufacturing and advanced industrial production.
At the same time, data on global energy investment from the International Energy Agency (IEA) shows that fossil fuel investment in Africa has declined over the last decade.
“Trojan horse” for fossil fuels
While the Africa Energy Bank struggles to get off the ground, climate campaigners have criticised its primary aim of financing oil and gas on the continent at a time when the world is starting to move away from high-carbon fuels to cleaner alternatives.
Bhekumuzi Dean Bhebhe, founder of Africa Change Lab, described the bank as a “Trojan horse”, arguing that its focus on fossil fuel financing runs counter to the global energy transition and the African Union’s Agenda 2063 goals of sustainable development and inclusive growth.
The energy bank, he warned, “risks locking Africa into a new cycle of debt, dependency and fossil fuel entrenchment”, adding that its financing blueprint does not pave the way for a climate-resilient future. “In truth, it is to deepen the same extractive, carbon-heavy pathways that the continent should be moving away from,” he added.
Ugandan farmers use British court to try to stop East Africa oil pipeline
Kenya-based climate and energy expert Joab Okanda said the AEB’s plan to finance oil and gas is “a misplaced priority” and it should instead back clean energy in line with the policies of some of Africa’s major export markets like Europe.
In addition, the new bank could struggle to mobilise enough resources to advance large-scale oil and gas projects, he added, noting that its proposed $5-billion initial capital is equivalent to the cost of the East African Crude Oil Pipeline alone.
The AEB’s aim of backing more fossil fuels should be flipped “to support countries that are oil-dependent to start working on their transition plans”, Okanda said.
The post Launch of Africa Energy Bank delayed again in blow to oil and gas hopes appeared first on Climate Home News.
Launch of Africa Energy Bank delayed again in blow to oil and gas hopes
A booklet published by the UK’s opposition Conservative party includes a “cost of net-zero” that appears to have been doubled by a spreadsheet error.
The “common sense” policy document argues that “what people ultimately want is a government competent enough to solve the problems for which it takes responsibility”.
In a section that says “sophisticat[ed]…modelling” should not be a substitute for “political judgement”, the “Right Way” document disparages various estimates of the cost of net-zero.
The Conservative document then claims – incorrectly – that the government’s official adviser, the Climate Change Committee (CCC), had put the cost of net-zero at close to £1tn. It says:
“In 2020, the CCC estimated that its route to net-zero would cost £957bn.”
In fact, the CCC’s 2020 estimate was exactly half this amount – £478bn – and last year it published a revised figure of £108bn, largely as a result of the falling cost of electric vehicles (EVs).
Spreadsheet error
The Conservative party’s erroneous claim appears to stem from another report that had accidentally added up numbers twice, using a spreadsheet published by the CCC in 2020.
The 2020 spreadsheet contains a table listing the additional investments that would be needed to build a net-zero economy, from low-carbon electricity generation through to heat pumps and EVs.
These extra capital expenditures, listed as “CAPEX”, add up to a total of £1.38tn over the 30 years of 2020-50. They are set against operational savings, listed as “OPEX”, of £0.90tn.
Added up over 2020-50, the combined CAPEX and OPEX figures come to a total of £478bn.
In addition to the annual sectoral CAPEX and OPEX figures, the CCC’s 2020 spreadsheet also has a line giving combined totals for each year. It appears that someone has added all of these numbers together, resulting in the savings and costs being counted twice.
This double-counted total for the cost of net-zero amounts to £957bn – as shown in the image below – and it appears to be the source of the claim in the Conservative booklet.
At the time of publication in 2020, the CCC said that the £478bn net cost of net-zero amounted to less than 1% of GDP over 30 years – and that the large investment needed would not only result in savings due to lower fossil-fuel imports, but that it would boost GDP overall, by around 2%.
In 2025, the CCC revised its estimates for investment costs and operating savings to £670bn and £562bn respectively, giving a net total of £108bn over 2025-50, or less than 0.2% of GDP.
Earlier this year, the committee said that cutting emissions to net-zero would cost less than a single fossil-fuel price shock and that doing so would have benefits worth £110bn per year.
Paper trail
The erroneous claim in the Conservative document is referenced to the CCC’s 2020 advice on the UK’s sixth “carbon budget”, which, as explained, does not contain the £957bn figure.
The earliest online use of the £957bn figure found by Carbon Brief is a 12 January 2026 article in the Spectator, by retired engineer and self-described “accidental energy analyst” David Turver.
A day later, Turver repeated the mistaken number in a report for the free-market Institute of Economic Affairs. His report cites figure 5.3 of the CCC’s 2020 advice.
However, as set out above, the CCC spreadsheet containing the data for figure 5.3 only adds up to £478bn, half the figure claimed by Turver.
It appears that Turver accidentally added up all of the numbers in the CCC spreadsheet, without noting that it already included a line for the annual total. This results in double-counting the cost.
(Turver’s report also triggered a slew of inaccurate headlines stating that net-zero would cost £7.6tn – or even £9tn. These figures, which came from Turver’s report, were based, among other things, on the implicit assumption that fossil fuels and the cars, boilers and power plants that use them are all free.)
After Turver’s report and article in January 2026, the erroneous £957bn figure was repeated in March by the Great British Think Tank. The organisation has the tagline “data, not vibes” and says of its work: “Every figure [is] sourced from official public bodies.”
The £957bn figure then appeared in the Conservative “Right Way” document in October 2026.
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The post Factcheck: UK Conservatives double the ‘cost of net-zero’ after spreadsheet blunder appeared first on Carbon Brief.
https://www.carbonbrief.org/factcheck-uk-conservatives-double-the-cost-of-net-zero-after-spreadsheet-blunder