According to a new report from Wood Mackenzie, China will hold more than 80% of the world’s solar polysilicon, wafer, cell and module manufacturing capacity from 2023 to 2026 following investments exceeding $130 billion this year alone.
“China’s solar manufacturing expansion has been driven by high margins for polysilicon, technology upgrades and for developing local manufacturing in overseas markets,” says Huaiyan Sun, a senior consultant at Wood Mackenzie and author of the report.
“China will still dominate the global solar supply chain and continue to widen the technology and cost gap with competitors.”
More than 1 TW of wafer, cell and module capacity is forecasted to come online by 2024, meaning China’s capacity is sufficient to meet annual global demand now through to 2032, based on Wood Mackenzie forecasts of annual demand growth.
Strong government policies in overseas markets have started to increase local solar manufacturing, but they are still not cost-competitive compared to Chinese supply. A module made in China is 50% cheaper than that produced in Europe and 65% cheaper than the U.S., according to the report.
The U.S. and India have announced more than 200 GW of planned module capacity since 2022, driven by the Inflation Reduction Act in the U.S. and the Production Linked Incentive in India.
“Despite considerable module expansion plans, overseas markets still cannot eliminate their dependence on China for wafers and cells in the next three years,” Sun says.
China will continue to be the global technological leader with its announcements to build more than 1 TW of N-type cell capacity, the next-generation technology after P-type. This represents 17 times more capacity than the rest of the world.
Looking outside China, India is forecasted to overtake Southeast Asia as the second-largest module production region by 2025, which will be driven by India’s strong PLI incentives.
Concerns about the market’s oversupply are mainly aimed at old production lines that produce lower efficiency products, such as the P-type and M6 cells. Demand for P-type cells began to decline in 2023, and Wood Mackenzie analysts expect it to be only 17% of supply by 2026.
“Oversupply will undeniably hinder some of the current expansion plans,” Sun adds. “More than 70 GW of capacity in China has been terminated or suspended in the past three months.”
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Wood Mackenzie: China Will Continue to Dominate Solar Manufacturing Sector
Can’t swear that the story here is authentic, but it sure rings true.
Vermont is a somewhat quirky state, but it protects its citizens very well. FWIW, this is where I want MY tax dollars going too.
Florida is a deeply red state that, true to form, wants as much ignorance as it can possibly produce. Educated people aren’t voting for people like Ron Desantis.
The GOP is asking American voters to believe that “radical left Democrat extremists” are leading the country into socialism/communism. They’re hoping that this fear will outweigh the electorate’s understanding of the damage that Trump, with help of congressional Republicans, is inflicting on this nation in the form of the war in Iran, destroyed relations with allies, inflation, shoddy education, environmental collapse, and threats to Social Security and Medicare.
As we all know, the rate at which a lie becomes accepted as true is a function of the frequency that it is repeated. And God knows, we see this crap about communism every time we turn around.
But this looks like an unwinnable battle. Virtually no one wants to abandon free enterprise. Moreover, Trump’s abysmal polling numbers reflect the fact that is largely despised as a criminal–the most corrupt figure in U.S. history.
How would you like to be campaigning to retired baby boomers on the platform that we cannot afford Social Security any longer, because we’ve siphoned off huge amounts of money, like our president’s “vanity war,” with only further downside in sight, that is costing $1 billion a day?
It appears that there are a few Republicans who understand the SAVE Act is simply an exercise in voter suppression and thus an attempt to overturn American democracy.
We need to accept any little bit of good news where we can find it.
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