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After a tough 2025 dominated by the US opposing climate action at home and abroad, 2026 looks set to be shaped by coalitions of countries willing to bypass the COP’s need for consensus and take voluntary action as a group.

While troubled multilateral talks on cleaning up plastics and shipping limp on, smaller groups of governments will gather to discuss taxing luxury air travel and planning a fair phase-out of fossil fuels. Australia and the Pacific’s initiatives for COP31 – which could continue discussions on the fossil fuel transition – will be crucial too.

As always, elections will shape the year too, particularly in the Americas. Presidential elections in Brazil and Colombia will determine whether Lula and Petro’s climate progress is reversed and Congressional elections in the USA will shape whether Trump’s climate vandalism can be checked.

    January

    From January 10-12, the International Renewable Energy Agency will gather ministers and officials at its Abu Dhabi headquarters for its annual assembly and related side events. The organisation will announce new insights into whether the world is on track to meet the COP28 goal of tripling renewable energy capacity by 2030, and our editor Megan Rowling will be there to cover the summit.

    The next week (January 19-23) is the World Economic Forum, where the global elite gather in the Swiss mountain town of Davos. With the Trump administration trying to push climate change down the agenda in return for his participation, we’ll be looking to see if he has got his way.

    Donald Trump arrives at the World Economic Forum in Davos, January 26, 2018 (Photo: World Economic Forum / Boris Baldinger)

    February

    On February 7, government representatives will gather in Geneva to elect a new chair of the Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee on Plastic Pollution. The previous chair – Ecuadorian Luis Vayas Valdivieso – stepped down in October after failing to get governments to agree to a plastics treaty.

    The new chair will face a tough task reviving those talks, with governments whose economies rely on oil and gas opposing any measures to reduce plastic production.

    March

    At a still undecided date in March, the Danish government will gather a representative group of climate ministers in their capital for the Copenhagen Climate Ministerial. Expect topics to include next steps in transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems.

    Meanwhile, on March 23-27, the oil and gas industry, energy ministers and other high-flyers in business and politics will travel to the Texan oil town of Houston for the CERAWeek conference. The annual gathering offers signals of what’s happening in the real economy.

    Around the same time, on March 26-29, trade ministers will head to Cameroon for the World Trade Organisation’s ministerial meeting. With trade issues increasingly overlapping with the climate space, especially with the European Union’s carbon border tax coming into force at the start of 2026, the statements and discussions here will shed light on climate policy around the world.

    April

    On April 13-18, the World Bank and International Monetary Fund will hold their annual spring meetings in Washington DC. Over the last few years, both institutions have tried to get more money to climate action. But, with the head of the World Bank effectively chosen by the US president, will this push survive Donald Trump’s presence in the Oval Office?

    On April 28-29, the governments of Colombia and the Netherlands will co-host the first “International Conference on the Just Transition Away from Fossil Fuels” in the Colombian port city of Santa Marta. With 24 countries signing a related voluntary declaration at COP30, the conference could launch a coalition against fossil fuels that grows outside of the notoriously slow COP process.

      May

      On May 11-12, the France-Africa summit will be held in the Kenyan capital of Nairobi. With Kenya and France both key backers of a coalition of countries seeking to tax luxury air travel to fund climate action, we will be looking out for progress on those proposals.

      The Colombian government of Gustavo Petro has inspired many climate campaigners with plans to phase out fossil fuel production. But Petro can’t run for another term and the first round of elections to replace him will take place on May 31. Who will replace him is currently highly uncertain.

      June

      On June 8-18, climate negotiators, campaigners and a select group of journalists – including Climate Home News – will travel to the German city of Bonn for the annual mid-year climate talks. Discussions on the Global Goal on Adaptation – unresolved at COP30 – will continue and the first trade-climate dialogue will be held.

      Overlapping this gathering will be the G7 leaders summit on the French shores of Lake Geneva (June 14) and the following week’s London Climate Week (June 21-29). The men’s football/soccer World Cup will begin in North America (June 14), with high temperatures expected.

      July

      On July 8-10, the Fund for Responding to Loss and Damage will have a board meeting in the Philippines, at which it is expected to approve its first set of projects, three and a half years after the fund’s creation grabbed headlines at COP27 in Egypt.

      August

      Dates are unconfirmed but there may be the next round of plastics treaty negotiations at some point in August or September and – with Australia and the Pacific involved in COP31 – Pacific leaders will gather for the annual Pacific Island Forum summit around this time.

      September

      Throughout September, diplomats will gather in New York for the United Nations General Assembly. Coinciding with that will be New York Climate Week (September 20-27), where power brokers in the climate world hold meetings, strike deals and make speeches.

      October

      Brazil’s president Lula has reversed the rising rainforest destruction of his predecessor Jair Bolsonaro, hosted COP30 and pushed for a roadmap towards fossil fuel phase-out. Whether he will be able to continue in that vein depends on the two rounds of presidential elections, scheduled for October 4 and 26. Polls suggest he is the clear favourite to win.

      Brazil’s President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva speech during the opening ceremony of the 30th Conference of the Parties (COP30).
      Brazil’s President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva speech during the opening ceremony of the 30th Conference of the Parties (COP30). (Photo: Ueslei Marcelino/COP30)

      On October 13-18, the World Bank and IMF host their annual autumn meetings and on October 19-30, the biodiversity COP comes to the Armenian capital city of Yerevan, where countries will produce the first global stocktake of the landmark Global Biodiversity Framework. Research suggests some of its goals, including a target to protect 30% of land and sea ecosystems, are highly off track.

      November

      An important month starts with US midterm elections for both branches of its Congress on November 3. The Democrats are currently expected to regain control of the House but not regain the Senate, where fewer seats are up for grabs. Losing either would limit Trump’s power in the world’s second-biggest emitter.

      Around the same time, the annual pre-COP meeting will be held in a still-undetermined Pacific Island nation. Pacific governments hope to attract world leaders to come and see firsthand how climate change is threatening their islands.

      Then on November 9-20, the climate COP will take place in the Turkish seaside city of Antalya, at its Expo Center. Australia is presiding over the talks – as part of a deal with Turkiye. Expect fossil fuel phase out and adaptation to be key themes.

      Overlapping with COP31 will be the Marine Environment Protection Committee of the International Maritime Organisation in London (November 16-20). In 2025, the US and Saudi Arabia won a year’s delay to green shipping measures. This meeting will determine if that delay becomes permanent.

      December

      On December 14-15, the leaders of the G20 (except South Africa) have been invited for a summit in Miami. The US, which is barring South Africa partly because of its green policies, has indicated it will use the G20 to promote fossil fuels.

      The post What’s on the climate calendar for 2026? appeared first on Climate Home News.

      What’s on the climate calendar for 2026?

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      UN chief warns climate crisis “in overdrive” as El Niño threatens to fuel the fire

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      The United Nations Secretary-General and foreign ministers from the UK, France and Spain have blamed the deadly wildfires engulfing Europe on climate change, using the disaster to renew calls for faster cuts to greenhouse gas emissions.

      António Guterres told journalists on Friday that the “climate crisis is in overdrive”, adding that global heat seen so far is just a “warm up act” as a phenomenon known as El Niño intensifies “adding fuel to a planet already on fire”.

      A new World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) report published on Friday predicts that the weather pattern will grow into a “strong event” between now and October, increasing the risk of higher than normal temperatures across much of the world and disrupted rainfalls.

      “That risks shattering every seasonal record – and driving even more severe effects worldwide,” Guterres said.

      El Niño builds on top of an already warming world, driven primarily by the burning of fossil fuels. A WMO scientist, who did not want to be named, told journalists that all the heatwaves and other climate impacts seen so far this year are “before the effects of El Niño are really kicking in at a global scale”.

      Fossil fuellling the fires

      Fires have broken out across much of Europe but are threatening the most people in the south-west of France near Bordeaux and in Central Spain near Madrid. Nearly a quarter of a million people have been evacuated in France with hundreds of homes destroyed while in Spain 80,000 people have had to leave their homes and at least 13 died in one village.

      A scientific study published on Friday by the World Weather Attribution group found that man-made climate change made deadly fires in France twice as likely and those in Spain twenty times more likely. Smaller fires in the UK were not analysed by the study.

      UN Climate Change leader Simon Stiell blamed fossil fuels for the fires, as well as storms in Chile and heatwaves in North America and Japan in recent weeks. “The climate alarm is blaring”, he said on Wednesday.

      Guterres criticised new fossil fuel production projects and fossil fuel subsidies for causing hardship across the world. Discussing his speech, a senior UN official – who did not want to be named – said the subsidies amounted to trillions of US dollars a year and criticised pension funds and institutional investors, including insurance companies, for continuing to invest in fossil fuel projects.

      The head of the United Nations Antonio Guterres (right) with the head of the UN’s climate arm Simon Stiell (left) at COP30 (Photo: Kiara Worth/UNFCCC)

      Asked why world leaders and the public are not prioritising climate action, Guterres said they are distracted by wars in Ukraine, the Middle East, Sudan and elsewhere and sometimes forget “other aspects that are a sometimes even more dangerous threat”.

      Also the fossil fuel industry and “some countries” are campaigning to pretend that climate change does not exist, he said, adding that the UN should be more active in “naming the situations as they are and the responsibilties as they are and mobilising the public opinion”.

      After meetings in Paris and Madrid earlier in the week, the UK’s new foreign minister Ed Miliband issued joint statements with his French and Spanish counterparts – Jean-Noël Barrot and José Manuel Albares Bueno – calling on the world to reduce its dependence on fossil fuels.

      They promised to do more to reduce emissions and protect their people and encouraged other governments to do the same.

      The UK-French statement called on governments to publish UN climate plans, known as nationally determined contributions (NDCs), which are aligned with the Paris Agreement’s goal to limit global average temperatures to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels.

      According to Climate Action Tracker, only three countries – the UK, Nigeria and Norway – have submitted NDCs with 2035 emissions reduction targets which are compatible with 1.5C. Fifty-two countries – including Egypt, Vietnam and Argentina – have yet to submit an NDC at all.

      Defending science

      Beyond action on emissions, the ministers also intervened in an ongoing dispute over the timing of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC)’s next flagship assessment.

      Miliband and Barrot’s statement said they “underline the importance” of scientific report feeding into governments’ next global stocktake of progress on climate action in two years’ time, calling it a “critical input” to that process.

      The timing of this report has been a contentious issue in government negotiations at the IPCC and at June’s climate talks in Bonn. While a group of nations calling themselves the “friends of science” want the report before the stocktake, others like Saudi Arabia and India have argued that this would make the report of a worse quality and less inclusive of developing countries’ scientists.

      Science ‘under attack’ from fossil fuel interests at UN climate talks

      The UK-Spanish statement weighed in less explicitly on this issue but said that they “recall the importance of scientific evidence and acknowledge the work of the IPCC in this respect.”

      The British and French ministers said they would seek to accelerate reductions of emissions in methane, a particularly potent greenhouse gas, at COP31 in November. They encouraged governments “to work jointly to develop a marketplace for fossil fuels with near-zero methane intensity.”

      Methane leaks from oil, gas and coal production are a major contributor to global warming. Over a 20-year period, methane traps around 80 times more heat than carbon dioxide.

      Ed Miliband meets José Manuel Albares Bueno in Madrid on 29 July 2026. (Picture by Ed Morris / FCDO)

      The UK and Spanish statement emphasised the importance of supporting the Global South and underlined the need to mobilise sustainable financing “at scale with the challenge we face”. The previous UK government, in which Miliband was energy minister, cut climate finance to developing countries to pay for increases in military spending.

      The UK government led by new Prime Minister Andy Burnham has yet to outline any major changes to climate finance in its two weeks in power but has announced it will convert some finance from grants to loans in order to free up money to subsidise bus travel in England.

      More adaptation needed

      Guterres said that “it is time to stop treating each disaster as an isolated tragedy and recognise the systemic risk that is unfolding before our eyes.” A recent study found that three-quarters of UK media reports about the British June heatwave did not mention climate change.

      As well as reducing emissions, the UN Secretary-General called for measures to adapt vulnerable people to extreme heat. Specifically, he said that buildings should be built and retrofitted for extreme heat and that every city and country should have heat-health action plans and early warning systems. Over 250 cities have joined the UN’s ‘beat the heat’ initiative, he said.

      The Portuguese diplomat called for governments and employers to do more to protect their workers from heat, criticising global fashion brands for not setting heat standards for the factories that supply them. “No one should have to risk their life to earn a living,” he said.

      The post UN chief warns climate crisis “in overdrive” as El Niño threatens to fuel the fire appeared first on Climate Home News.

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      ‘Ride the wave of momentum’: Australia announces once-in-a-decade Marine Parks Network review

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      In response to the federal government announcing its once-in-a-decade review of Australia’s Marine Parks Network, the following lines can be attributed to Elle Lawless, Senior Campaigner at Greenpeace Australia Pacific:

      “Greenpeace Australia Pacific welcomes today’s announcement that the Albanese Government will review Australia’s Commonwealth Marine Parks Network. This is a rare, once-in-a-decade opportunity to strengthen our marine parks and ban industrial fishing in Australia’s marine protected areas.

      “Australians would be appalled to know that more than half of Australia’s Marine Parks Network currently allows for extractive industries, like longlining, bottom trawling and oil and gas mining. These so-called ‘protected’ areas were designed to safeguard our beloved ocean wildlife and underwater ecosystems – that is what Australians expect. Damaging industrial industries should not be given a free pass to trawl, fish, drill or extract from our marine parks.”

      “With the first Ocean COP just around the corner, and off the back of Australia’s move to ratify the Global Ocean Treaty earlier this year, the Australian government has a unique opportunity to ride the wave of this momentum and solidify itself as a true global ocean leader.

      “Greenpeace Australia Pacific is calling for industrial activities to be banned from our protected waters and for at least 30% of Australia’s ocean to be protected as ocean sanctuaries. This review presents a rare opportunity to create more ocean sanctuaries, true blue havens where ocean life can recover, thrive and repopulate the surrounding waters.”

      —ENDS—

      ‘Ride the wave of momentum’: Australia announces once-in-a-decade Marine Parks Network review

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      Factcheck: No, Europe is not having its ‘quietest’ year for wildfires

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      In recent days, prominent climate sceptics and rightwing commentators have shared charts on social media incorrectly implying that Europe is having its “quietest” year for wildfires in 2026.

      These include Dr Matthew Wielicki, a former University of Alabama geochemist and self-described “professor in exile”, who was recently appointed by the Trump administration to lead the US Global Change Research Program.

      However, these charts paint a misleading picture as they are skewed by encompassing the entirety of Russia in the data – including the vast plains of Siberia.

      These charts also use data that include fires that are deliberately lit to manage cropland, which is a declining practice across much of Europe.

      In this factcheck, Carbon Brief shows that the area burned by wildfires across the European Union in 2026 is second only to 2022 for this time of year.

      The latest data from the European Forest Fire Information System (EFFIS) also shows that France has set a new modern record for area burned and Spain’s wildfire season is among the worst on record.

      The fires have displaced more than a third of a million people across south-western Europe, while an impending heatwave has also raised fears of the fires worsening in the coming days.

      ‘Quietest year’

      On 27 July, as wildfires raged across multiple European countries, former Conservative peer and climate-sceptic commentator Matt Ridley posted on Twitter that “2026 is the quietest year for wildfires in Europe by some distance”.

      Misleading social media post by Mitt Ridley that says" er...2026 is the quietest year for wild fires un Europe by some distance."

      Ridley, who sits on the academic advisory council of the Global Warming Policy Foundation (GWPF), a UK-based climate-sceptic lobby group that refuses to reveal the sources of its funding, was responding to an article by Daily Telegraph columnist Tim Stanley.

      Stanley’s column, headlined: “Climate change is real – and the right needs to get serious about it”, warned:

      “This is no longer a matter of speculation: the wildfires of Europe, pitiless and persistent, are the way we live now.”

      Ridley included a chart from Our World In Data, showing the cumulative area burned by wildfires by week for Europe. The chart puts 2026 as having the smallest area for this time of year in a dataset going back to 2012.

      Ridley’s post was widely shared by prominent rightwing figures – including Richard Tice, deputy leader of the hard-right, climate-sceptic Reform UK party, former Conservative cabinet minister Jacob Rees-Mogg and multiple commentators.

      Separately, Wielicki also shared a chart on Twitter to imply that wildfires in Europe are declining. Wielicki has previously claimed that the “science is not settled on climate change”.

      The charts posted by Ridley and Wielicki both use data from the Global Wildfire Information System (GWIS). The GWIS category for “Europe” encompasses all the countries on the continent and includes the whole of Russia.

      As a result, Russia accounts for about 74% of the area included in the GWIS definition of “Europe”.

      Wildfires in Russia typically account for 80-90% of the burned area in the GWIS Europe dataset. In 2026, fires in Russia are substantially below average. Therefore, including Russia in this comparison creates the false impression that wildfire activity across Europe is unusually low.

      Dr Calum Cunningham, a research fellow at the University of Tasmania’s Fire Centre, says that such claims are “highly misleading”, noting that “they rely on aggregating fire activity across an enormous and climatically diverse region”. He tells Carbon Brief:

      “A relatively quiet season in Russia can easily mask an exceptionally active season in France or Spain. If the analysis is focused on the regions actually experiencing the current fires, the picture is very different.

      “The reality is that western Europe has experienced an extraordinary sequence of climate conditions this year.”

      In contrast, the EFFIS provides a subset of wildfire data specifically for the area covered by the 27 nations of the EU, which, therefore, excludes Russia.

      Another difference between the two datasets is that GWIS monitors all fires – including those on agricultural land that are intentionally set alight. The burned area as measured by GWIS contains significant cropland area.

      By contrast, EFFIS uses land-cover data and other information to filter specifically for forest fires.

      Looking at the EU-only data from EFFIS reveals that Europe is far from having its “quietest” year. The bloc’s burned area, as of 29 July, is almost 435,000 hectares (ha) – second only to 2022 for this time of year.

      The area burned by wildfires in the EU in 2026 by end of July is second only to 2022. Weekly cumulative burned area (hectares). Line graph shows 2026 burned area reaching over 400,000 hectares by late July, far exceeding the 2006-2025 average. Source: EFFIS - (alt text generated by Google Gemini)

      Notably, Wielicki has actually continued to post charts based on GWIS data, even after acknowledging that “includ[ing] all of Russia, including vast areas of Siberia…isn’t a good proxy for Europe”.

      French fires

      Even looking at EU-wide data misses the scale of this year’s wildfires for some individual countries.

      The chart below shows the surge in burned area in France since mid-July.

      For much of the first half of the year, the country was having a wildfire season that was only slightly above average in terms of total burned area. However, a notable uptick began in the first week of July.

      The third week of the month saw France break its previous cumulative annual record by more than 19,000ha. That gap has widened as the fires continue to burn; as of 29 July, the cumulative burned area in France during 2026 was nearly 24,700ha above the previous record.

      France's wildfires in 2026 are the most widespread in modern records. Weekly cumulative burned area (hectares). A line chart shows 2026 burned area sharply rising by August to over 90,000 hectares, well above the 2006-2025 range maximum of around 65,000 and average of 15,000. Source: EFFIS - (alt text generated by Google Gemini)

      The fires in France follow a record-breaking June heatwave that “dried out vegetation across the region, allowing fires to spread quickly”, wrote the New York Times.

      On 27 July, French president Emmanuel Macron called a “crisis cabinet meeting” in order to address the fires “ravaging several areas of south-west France”, said France 24.

      More than 220,000 people have been evacuated due to the Gironde fire, west of Bordeaux, in “what may be France’s largest peacetime evacuation”, reported the Associated Press.

      In the Conversation, Cunningham and two other University of Tasmania researchers write that evacuation orders “protec[t] human lives, but makes it more likely houses and other structures will burn if there’s no one to defend them”. They add:

      “There is little doubt climate change has made France and Spain’s wildfires worse. They represent yet another reason to redouble our efforts to tackle climate change and stabilise our climate.”

      Central Spain scorched

      While Spain’s fire season has not broken records in the same way that France’s has, it is on track to be among the worst since EFFIS began reporting data in 2006.

      The chart below shows the rapid increase in burned area in Spain since 8 July. The latest data from EFFIS reveal that, as of 29 July, Spain has almost matched its previous record at this point in the year. It is also nearly five times the average area burned for this time of year.

      Line chart titled "Spain's 2026 wildfires are among the worst in modern records", subtitle "Weekly cumulative burned area (hectares)". By August, 2026 burned area surges past 200,000 hectares, rising far above the 2006-2025 average and near the upper historical range. Source: EFFIS - (alt text generated by Google Gemini)

      In Spain, the wildfires have been concentrated in the central part of the country, near Madrid.

      BBC News reported that the fires outside the capital have burned “an area more than twice as large as the city itself”.

      Nearly 90,000 people were forced from their homes in central Spain by the fires, said the Associated Press.

      Pedro Sánchez, Spain’s prime minister, called the fires a “painful expression” of climate change.

      Meanwhile, the UK, French and Spanish governments have issued joint statements this week in response to the fires. The UK/Spain statement begins:

      “This summer’s wildfires demonstrated that climate change was now a national security emergency facing Europe and threatening our way of life.”

      The post Factcheck: No, Europe is not having its ‘quietest’ year for wildfires appeared first on Carbon Brief.

      Factcheck: No, Europe is not having its ‘quietest’ year for wildfires

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