For a minute last week it looked like the New York Times was heeding CTC’s summons to tax carbon emissions as a way to make faltering clean-energy projects profitable.
NY Times op-ed by David Wallace-Wells, Jan. 10, 2024. His “missing profits” aren’t the same as ours.
The mirage appeared in the headline for an opinion piece, Missing Profits May Be a Problem for the Green Transition, by the Times’ climate columnist David Wallace-Wells. MISSING PROFITS! Was Wallace-Wells pursuing the idea I floated in a CTC blog two months ago, that a U.S. carbon tax could lift the prevailing price of grid power by enough to offset the cost creep that has killed off East Coast wind and solar projects along with an innovative nuclear power venture in Idaho?
Not quite. The “missing profits” in the Times column referred to collapsing returns inflicted on renewable energy projects by higher interest rates, stretched-out schedules and cost escalation endemic to first-of-a-kind projects like 900-foot-tall offshore wind turbines (East Coast) and small modular reactors (Idaho). The phrase in the Times column did not denote the revenue boost that carbon-free power projects deserve but don’t get for the climate benefit they create by keeping fossil fuels in the ground.
Nevertheless, “missing profits” is a keeper phrase. Though less poetic than “gainsharing,” the term we deployed in that Nov. 10 post (Gainsharing: Carbon Taxes Can Put Clean Energy Back in the Black), the phrase is clearer and more to the point: The lack of robust carbon pricing manifests as missing profits that beset every project, policy and gesture that promises to reduce use of fossil fuels and, thus, to avert and reduce carbon emissions.
Leave the idea, take the expression, “Godfather” movie character Pete Clemenza might have said.
What was the idea, then, in Wallace-Wells’ Times column? Mostly that the prospective profits from wind and solar projects are downright meager compared to returns on oil and gas supply investments.
True enough, and unsettling. But the antidote advanced in the column is almost diametrically opposite ours. CTC wants a robust U.S. carbon price “to put clean energy projects back in the black.” In contrast, Uppsala University (Sweden) geographer Brett Christophers, the avatar of Wallace-Wells’ column, wants “public ownership of the power sector.”
Yes, but which price is wrong? Christophers writes in his forthcoming book that renewables cost too much and need public investment. We say *fossil fuels* are priced *too low* and require carbon pricing.
I haven’t read Christophers’ new book, The Price Is Wrong — its publication is set for March. But its contours seem clear from Wallace-Wells’ column and from Christophers’ own NYT guest essay last May, Why Are We Allowing the Private Sector to Take Over Our Public Works?
In that essay, Christophers took dead aim at the Biden administration’s signature climate achievement, the Inflation Reducation Act. “The I.R.A. will help accelerate the growing private ownership of U.S. infrastructure and, in particular, its concentration among a handful of global asset managers,” he wrote.
“It is wrong,” Christophers continued, to cast the I.R.A. and other Biden legislation as “a renewal of President Franklin Roosevelt’s New Deal infrastructure programs of the 1930s.”
The signature feature of the New Deal was public ownership: Even as private firms carried out many of the tens of thousands of construction projects, almost all of the new infrastructure was funded and owned publicly. These were public works. Public ownership of major infrastructure has been an American mainstay ever since. [I]n political-economic terms, Mr. Biden, far from assuming Roosevelt’s mantle, has actually been dismantling the Rooseveltian legacy. (emphasis added)
Wallace-Wells summarized the challenge of green power’s newly spiking capital and interest costs as follows:
For Christophers, this is a challenge that implies its own solution: public ownership of the power sector. If all that stands between our bumpy “mid-transition” status quo and an abundant clean-energy future for all is an initial hurdle of investment, why strain to extract that investment from private investors who’d prefer to invest elsewhere?
But what if renewables’ “missing profits” aren’t solely their upfront-cost hurdle? What if the findings touted by Wallace-Wells and hundreds of others, from the International Energy Agency and Bloomberg New Energy Finance, that new wind and solar arrays pencil out cheaper than equivalent electricity generated with coal or methane, are simplistic or even wrong?
To his credit, Wallace-Wells allowed in his column that U.S. public power agencies traditionally have been “obstacles to a rapid transition [from fossil fuels]” rather than “models of hyperdecarbonization.” But it’s also true that some entities of government, including New York State, have strong traditions of positive public works. Indeed, Franklin D. Roosevelt’s tenure as governor served as a testing ground for ideas such as unemployment insurance and old-age pensions that his presidency made foundational to the New Deal.
Chart, reprinted from our Nov. 2023 “Gainsharing” post (link in text), has back-of-the-envelope estimates of the “missing profits” clean-energy projects could capture under carbon pricing.
In this light, CTC finds much to like in New York’s new (2023) Build Public Renewables Act, which authorizes the NY Power Authority to build and own renewable power projects. At the same time, we’re mindful that public financing of clean power constitutes a subsidy, albeit an indirect one, and that the U.S. tax code already provides considerable subsidies to wind and solar power — subsidies that the I.R.A. extended to the entire electrification effort (EV’s, batteries, transmission, manufacture) of which wind and solar are key components.
The virtues and pitfalls of public investment in clean power are worthy of public conversation, not just in the U.S. but “in the poorer parts of the world,” as Wallace-Wells notes, where hundreds of millions lack access to electricity of any stripe, in part because “capital costs of new infrastructure can be prohibitively high even in the absence of supply shocks and global inflation conditions.”
CTC’s focus, though, is the United States, home of the world’s most inventive entrepreneurs and its most efficient capital markets. Without shutting the door against public investment, we are tantalized by the possibility that clean power’s cost hiccups can be overcome through robust carbon pricing. Unlike subsidies, carbon pricing won’t “accelerate the growing private ownership of U.S. infrastructure and, in particular, its concentration among a handful of global asset managers,” the specter raised against the I.R.A. by Brett Christophers in his May 2023 Times guest essay.
Carbon pricing isn’t targeted and isn’t game-able. It’s ecumenical, technology-neutral and pervasive. It raises all boats — energy efficiency and conservation as well as renewables. Whether it can actually restore profitability to carbon-free power projects is an urgent question we at CTC intend to explore this year.
Carbon Footprint
Toyota’s (TM Stock) Q1 Twist: Why Profits Dip But Hybrids Surge, and Net Zero Goals Accelerate
Toyota Motor Corporation reported a sharp drop in earnings for the quarter ending June 30, 2025. Net profit fell 37% to ¥841 billion ($5.7 billion), down from ¥1.33 trillion a year earlier. This marked one of the steepest quarterly declines in recent years. Revenue, however, rose 3% year-over-year to ¥12 trillion ($82 billion), supported by strong demand in North America and Asia.
The primary drag came from new U.S. tariffs of 15% on Japanese car imports, which reduced profit by an estimated ¥450 billion. Higher costs for raw materials and a stronger yen hurt overseas earnings. Global inflation also impacted the results.
Toyota has revised its full-year operating profit forecast downward to ¥2.66 trillion ($18 billion). This speaks of a more cautious outlook for 2025. Analysts say the biggest automaker is keeping strong sales. However, profit margins face pressure from outside economic factors.
Amid the financial hiccup, the company reaffirmed its commitment to climate leadership. It aims for carbon neutrality with strong emissions targets, green manufacturing projects, and renewable energy investments. This effort is part of its Environmental Challenge 2050 framework.
Hybrids Take the Wheel as Sales Defy the Downturn
Global vehicle sales for the quarter reached 2.4 million units, up from 2.2 million a year ago. Toyota’s sales in North America rose nearly 20% in July. This boost came from its hybrid models, like the RAV4 Hybrid and Camry Hybrid, which both showed double-digit growth.
Hybrid and plug-in hybrid models make up over one-third of Toyota’s total sales. This shows how important electrified powertrains are becoming in the company’s lineup.
Battery electric vehicle (BEV) sales, while still a smaller portion, increased steadily in markets with expanding charging infrastructure.
Toyota stayed on top in Japan and Southeast Asia. This was thanks to its compact cars and commercial vehicles. However, European sales dipped a bit due to tougher emissions rules and strong competition from local EV brands.
Toyota’s share price fell about 1.6% following the earnings announcement, as tariff concerns weighed on investor sentiment. Even with this dip, the stock still looks good. Its forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is 6.9. That’s lower than the industry average of 8.0 and Toyota’s five-year average of 9.3.
Driving Toward 2050: Toyota’s Net Zero Roadmap
Toyota has set a long-term target to achieve carbon neutrality across the entire life cycle of its vehicles by 2050. This goal covers emissions from all stages: vehicle design, production, use, and recycling. It also includes emissions from suppliers and logistics partners.
In its latest sustainability report, Toyota reported its Scope 1 and Scope 2 greenhouse gas emissions. These emissions, from direct operations and purchased electricity, reached around 2.05 million metric tons of CO₂e in FY 2024. This shows a 15% drop from FY 2019 levels. The company aims to cut these emissions by 68% by 2035, using 2019 as the baseline year.
For Scope 3 emissions, which account for most of Toyota’s footprint, targets are set. By 2030, Toyota aims for a 30% reduction from suppliers, logistics, and dealerships. They also seek a 35% cut in average vehicle-use emissions. These goals account for the fact that tailpipe emissions from vehicles remain the single largest part of the company’s climate impact.
Globally, Toyota is investing in solar, wind, hydrogen, and renewable natural gas to power its factories. It has also joined multiple international coalitions to accelerate low-carbon manufacturing and logistics.
The largest carmaker is investing a lot in renewable energy. They plan to use 45% renewable electricity in North America by 2026. By 2035, they aim for 100% renewable energy at all global plants.
Projects include:
- Large-scale solar panel installations at assembly plants
- Hydrogen-powered forklifts
- Renewable natural gas systems at engine facilities.
The company’s approach combines electrification with manufacturing decarbonization. This includes hybrids, battery electric vehicles (BEVs), and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles.
Toyota’s leaders think this multi-pathway strategy will reduce emissions quickly. This is especially true in areas where full BEV infrastructure is still growing. It also helps ensure steady progress toward the company’s 2050 carbon neutrality goal.
In summary, the company’s near-term reduction targets are:
- 68% reduction in Scope 1 and 2 emissions by 2035 (compared to 2019 levels).
- 30% cut in Scope 3 emissions from suppliers, logistics, and dealerships by 2030.
- Matching 45% of electricity use with renewables in North America by 2026.
Environmental Challenge 2050: Six Pillars of Action
Toyota’s Environmental Challenge 2050, launched in 2015, remains its guiding framework for sustainability. The initiative is built on six core challenges:
- Zero CO₂ emissions from new vehicles through hybrid, BEV, and hydrogen fuel cell adoption.
- Zero CO₂ emissions in manufacturing by shifting to renewable energy and low-carbon processes.
- Life cycle zero CO₂ emissions, including recycling and parts reuse.
- Minimizing water usage and improving water discharge quality.
- Protecting biodiversity around manufacturing sites and supply chains.
- Advancing a circular economy by extending product lifecycles and reducing waste.
Toyota aims to sell 1.5 million BEVs annually by 2026 and 3.5 million by 2030, alongside continuing hybrid and fuel cell development. This multi-path approach allows the company to meet varying customer needs and infrastructure readiness levels worldwide.
Green Manufacturing: Major Investments in Low-Carbon Plants and ESG
Toyota’s largest new sustainability investment is a ¥140 billion ($922 million) advanced paint facility in Georgetown, Kentucky. Set to open in 2027, the plant will reduce paint shop carbon emissions by 30% and cut water use by 1.5 million gallons annually.
In Japan, Toyota is piloting hydrogen-powered forklifts and solar-powered assembly lines. The company will use 100% renewable electricity for its manufacturing in Europe by 2030.
These projects reduce environmental impact and boost operational efficiency. They support Toyota’s goals of sustainability and profitability.
Beyond emissions, Toyota is strengthening its broader ESG performance. The company has strict human rights rules for suppliers. These rules include labor conditions, conflict minerals, and environmental compliance. By 2030, Toyota aims for 90% of its top suppliers to set their own science-based emissions targets.
In 2024, Toyota diverted 94% of waste from landfills globally and recycled over 99% of scrap metal from manufacturing. It also invested in reforestation projects in Asia and Africa as part of its carbon offset strategy.
Balancing Short-Term Pressures With Long-Term Goals
The April–June quarter highlighted Toyota’s resilience in the face of macroeconomic challenges. Tariffs and currency changes have hurt short-term profits. However, strong vehicle sales, especially in hybrids, keep the company competitive.
At the same time, Toyota is moving ahead with one of the most thorough sustainability programs in the auto industry. Its carbon neutrality goals and the Environmental Challenge 2050 framework guide its actions. Also, large-scale green manufacturing investments help meet the growing demands for cleaner mobility from regulators and consumers.
As Toyota navigates market volatility, its ability to deliver both financial and environmental strategies will be key to maintaining global leadership in the shift toward sustainable transportation.
The post Toyota’s (TM Stock) Q1 Twist: Why Profits Dip But Hybrids Surge, and Net Zero Goals Accelerate appeared first on Carbon Credits.
Carbon Footprint
JOBY Aviation Stock Soars on Blade Acquisition and Electric Air Taxi Commercial Launch Plans
Joby Aviation Inc. (NYSE: JOBY) is closing in on its dream of launching electric air taxis. The California-based company has spent years building its all-electric, vertical take-off and landing (eVTOL) aircraft, designed for fast, quiet, and convenient city travel.
Air Taxis: The Future of Fast, Clean, and Congestion-Free Urban Travel
Air taxis are small electric or hybrid aircraft that take off and land vertically, ideal for short city hops, airport transfers, and reaching remote areas. Target users include executives, business travelers, and emergency services. Countries like the U.S., Germany, and the UAE are investing heavily in supporting infrastructure.
A report highlighted that the global air taxi market, valued at USD 1.32 billion in 2024, is projected to hit USD 7.74 billion by 2033 at a 21.72% CAGR, driven by eVTOL technology, urban mobility demand, and congestion-free travel needs.
Growth is fueled by advances in batteries, lightweight materials, and electric propulsion, making aircraft cleaner and more efficient, plus worsening city traffic that air taxis can bypass—cutting multi-hour trips to just 15–20 minutes.
This August, Joby made a series of bold moves that pushed it closer to commercial operations, from a high-profile acquisition and defense partnership to major FAA progress and manufacturing growth. Investors noticed, sending the stock near record highs.
Blade Deal Unlocks Instant Market Access and Growth
One of the month’s biggest headlines came on August 4, when Joby announced plans to acquire Blade Air Mobility’s passenger business for up to $125 million in cash or stock.
The deal is a game-changer. Blade brings premium infrastructure, including dedicated terminals at major New York airports and a strong presence in Southern Europe. More importantly, it comes with a loyal customer base — more than 50,000 passengers flew Blade in 2024.
By absorbing Blade’s passenger operations, Joby gains instant market access without the time and expense of building from scratch. The acquisition is expected to slash infrastructure costs, speed up customer acquisition, and put Joby ahead of competitors in key urban corridors.
The transaction is set to close in the coming weeks, pending customary approvals. Once complete, Blade’s passenger services will continue under Joby’s ownership, setting the stage for a smooth integration.
- READ MORE: Boosting Aviation Carbon Credits: ICAO Greenlights Verra’s VCS Program for CORSIA Carbon Market
Defense Partnership Opens a New Revenue Stream
Joby revealed another major move, a collaboration with defense contractor L3Harris.
The partnership will develop a gas turbine hybrid variant of Joby’s existing eVTOL aircraft for low-altitude defense missions. The design aims to combine Joby’s manufacturing expertise with L3Harris’ deep defense technology capabilities.
Flight testing is set to begin this fall, with operational demonstrations planned during government exercises in 2026.
This venture signals Joby’s ambition to be more than just a commercial passenger service. By stepping into the defense sector, Joby diversifies its revenue streams and showcases its aircraft’s versatility for both civilian and military use.
FAA Certification Moves Into Final Stages
On August 6, Joby shared a crucial regulatory update. It has started final assembly of its first FAA-approved electric air taxi, a major step toward Type Inspection Authorization (TIA) flight testing. This stage needs FAA-approved test plans, a certified design, and proven manufacturing — all of which Joby has achieved, with over 50% of its test plans already accepted.
The aircraft, developed over years of testing, will fly with Joby pilots in 2025, followed by FAA pilots. Structural and systems tests have confirmed its strength and readiness.
Joby’s in-house design and manufacturing have boosted development and improved quality. With new facilities in California and Ohio, backed by Toyota, the company will soon be able to build up to 24 aircraft a year.
Cash-Rich and Backed by Toyota, Joby Eyes Massive Growth Ahead
- Joby’s balance sheet is strong, ending Q2 2025 with $991 million in cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities.
The company also closed the first $250 million tranche of a $500 million strategic investment from Toyota, one of Joby’s largest and most influential partners.
For 2025, Joby expects to use between $500 million and $540 million in cash, excluding the Blade acquisition. Revenue remains small, just $59,600 expected for Q2, but growth projections are huge, with a forecasted 900% year-on-year increase from a low base.
JoeBen Bevirt, founder and CEO of Joby, said,
“This is a pivotal moment. Regulatory progress around the world is unlocking market access, our commercialization strategy is taking hold, and we’re now focused on scaling production to meet real demand—a challenge we’re fully committed to and working hard to deliver on.”
JOBY Stock Surge Reflects Growing Investor Confidence
Joby’s recent string of announcements sent its stock soaring. In the past month alone, shares have jumped more than 70% due to heavy trading. Year-to-date, the stock has risen 142%, surpassing its market capitalization of $14 billion.
However, volatility remains. Analyst price target changes and insider sales have caused swings, but the long-term outlook hinges more on regulatory milestones than short-term earnings.
Manufacturing Expansion Doubles Output
To meet growing demand, Joby expanded its Marina, California, manufacturing facility to 435,000 square feet. This upgrade will double production capacity to 24 aircraft per year.
Meanwhile, its newly renovated Dayton, Ohio, site is ramping up to produce and test key aircraft components. Over time, Dayton could scale to build up to 500 aircraft annually, making it a cornerstone of Joby’s manufacturing strategy.
International Partnerships Boost Global Reach
Joby is not just looking at U.S. cities. The company also announced an expanded partnership with ANA Holdings in Japan.
The two companies plan to deploy over 100 Joby air taxis starting in Tokyo, creating an urban air mobility ecosystem complete with dedicated vertiports and operational support. The partnership will leverage Toyota’s network and government cooperation to fast-track development.
Joby also signed new agreements with Abdul Latif Jameel and ANA to explore deploying approximately 300 aircraft in other markets.
What’s Next for Joby Aviation?
With the Blade acquisition, defense partnership, FAA certification progress, and global expansion, Joby is executing on multiple fronts at once.
The next 12 months will be critical. If Joby completes certification on schedule, ramps production, and integrates Blade’s passenger network, it could be one of the first eVTOL companies to operate at scale.
For now, investors are betting big that Joby’s head start, strategic partnerships, and strong balance sheet will translate into a dominant position in the fast-emerging air taxi market.
Joby Aviation isn’t just inching toward launch; it’s accelerating. From New York to Dubai to Tokyo, the pieces are falling into place for a global eVTOL network. If all goes according to plan, 2026 could be the year flying taxis move from concept to reality.
The post JOBY Aviation Stock Soars on Blade Acquisition and Electric Air Taxi Commercial Launch Plans appeared first on Carbon Credits.
Carbon Footprint
Carbon footprint offsetting strategies: How leading companies neutralise their emissions
Reaching net zero isn’t just a visionary pledge anymore; it’s a business imperative. From investor expectations and ESG benchmarks to customer scrutiny and upcoming regulation, the pressure on companies to decarbonise is accelerating. But while reducing internal emissions is essential, there’s growing recognition that carbon offsetting strategies are a vital part of the solution, not a shortcut.
-
Climate Change2 years ago
Spanish-language misinformation on renewable energy spreads online, report shows
-
Climate Change Videos2 years ago
The toxic gas flares fuelling Nigeria’s climate change – BBC News
-
Greenhouse Gases1 year ago嘉宾来稿：满足中国增长的用电需求 光伏加储能“比新建煤电更实惠”
-
Climate Change1 year ago嘉宾来稿：满足中国增长的用电需求 光伏加储能“比新建煤电更实惠”
-
Carbon Footprint1 year agoUS SEC’s Climate Disclosure Rules Spur Renewed Interest in Carbon Credits
-
Climate Change2 years ago
Why airlines are perfect targets for anti-greenwashing legal action
-
Climate Change Videos2 years ago
The toxic gas flares fuelling Nigeria’s climate change – BBC News
-
Climate Change2 years ago
Some firms unaware of England’s new single-use plastic ban