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Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile (SQM) delivered a solid set of results for the third quarter of 2025, even though earnings came in slightly below what Wall Street expected. The company reported net income of $0.62 per share, just $0.02 short of analyst forecasts.

Revenue for the quarter reached $1.17 billion, supported by strong performance in its lithium business. Record lithium sales volumes played a major role in boosting the company’s top line, showing how quickly demand has improved across global battery markets.

Lithium Momentum Pushes SQM Toward a Strong 2025

  • Gross profit climbed 23.1% year-over-year to $345.8 million, marking a strong rebound after a period of weaker prices earlier in the cycle.

Reuters noted that SQM benefited from rising lithium prices as electric vehicle (EV) demand recovered and large-scale battery storage projects expanded around the world. With these trends gaining strength, SQM raised its 2025 global lithium demand growth forecast to more than 20%, up from its earlier estimate of around 17%.

Looking ahead, SQM maintains a positive outlook for the market. The company plans to invest $2.7 billion over the next three years to expand lithium production capacity in Chile. SQM expects lithium prices to stay on an upward trend in the fourth quarter of 2025 as demand from EVs and energy storage systems continues to accelerate.

SQM lithiun
Source: SQM

China’s Bullish Outlook Sparks a Market Rally

While SQM’s results were strong on their own, global sentiment around lithium improved even more after China’s Ganfeng Lithium issued a highly optimistic forecast. According to Bloomberg, Ganfeng Chairman Li Liangbin projected 30% growth in lithium demand next year. His comments immediately triggered a sharp rally in both lithium prices and mining stocks.

The most-active lithium carbonate futures contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange jumped 9%, hitting the daily upper limit of 95,200 yuan per ton (around $13,400). Investors reacted quickly, sending shares of major producers higher. SQM’s stock rose as much as 14%, and Albemarle shares climbed about 9.3% during the rally.

This price surge helped strengthen SQM’s quarterly financials. The company reported net income of $178.4 million, a 36% jump from $131.4 million a year earlier.

Revenue climbed 8.9%, rising from $1.08 billion to $1.17 billion over the same period. With growing investor confidence, SQM’s U.S.-listed shares touched $64.60, their highest level in more than two years.

lithium price SQM
Source: SQM

Lithium Market Shifts Into Recovery

Despite these strong results, the lithium industry is still navigating a market that has gone through significant volatility. Lithium prices cooled sharply after reaching record highs in 2022, as supply growth outpaced demand. This pressured margins for SQM, Albemarle, and other major producers.

However, the second half of 2025 brought a noticeable turnaround. SQM said demand between July and September was stronger than expected.

CEO Ricardo Ramos told analysts that although the market remained volatile, SQM was “cautiously optimistic” about the coming months. He emphasized that fundamentals remain strong because demand is rising not just for electric vehicles but also from energy storage systems, which are becoming essential for renewable power grids.

SQM Sees Sharp Demand Jump Ahead of Codelco Deal

Additionally, the mining giant expects global lithium demand in 2025 to exceed 1.5 million metric tons, representing a 25% jump from 2024. Demand could rise further to 1.7 million metric tons by 2026, according to Pablo Hernandez, vice president of strategy and development for SQM’s Chilean lithium division.

However, even with stronger demand signals, he noted that the company remains conservative when estimating next year’s growth.

The company is also preparing to finalize its long-awaited partnership with state-owned miner Codelco. The joint venture will expand lithium extraction in the Atacama salt flat. With China’s market regulator now approving the deal, the final step is receiving a sign-off from Chile’s comptroller. CEO Ricardo Ramos said he is confident the deal will close before the end of the year.

lithium demand

JP Morgan Raises Long-Term Lithium Price Forecast

JP Morgan raised its long-term outlook for lithium prices as demand stayed strong and mining costs climbed. Earlier this year, the bank cut its long-term spodumene forecast to $1,100 per ton. After reassessing global trends, it now sees that number as too low and has increased its estimate to $1,300 per ton.

JP MORGAN lithium price forecast
Source: JP Morgan

Why the Upgrade?

  • Stronger Demand: Rapid EV and energy storage growth is expected to keep long-term demand elevated. Rising capital and operating costs also mean new projects need higher prices to advance.

  • Market Alignment: Investors already assume long-term prices in the $1,200–$1,300 per ton range. JP Morgan’s new forecast better reflects market sentiment and helps identify trading inflection points.

  • Supply Discipline: Australian miners say operations at Bald Hill, Wodgina, and Ngungaju won’t restart until prices exceed $1,200 per ton. JP Morgan sees similar discipline emerging in China, reducing the risk of oversupply.

The bank kept its long-term lithium carbonate and hydroxide assumptions at $15,000 per ton, calling these levels “incentive prices” for downstream investment. In the near term, JP Morgan lifted its 2026–2027 spodumene outlook from $800 per ton to $1,100–$1,200 per ton as it expects a tighter market and potential deficits.

The Bottom Line

SQM is benefiting from a fast-improving lithium market driven by strong EV and battery storage momentum. Rising prices, improved demand, and growing investor enthusiasm are lifting the company’s performance. Although volatility remains, SQM enters 2026 with record volumes, a solid financial foundation, and a clearer long-term strategy supported by disciplined supply and a stronger pricing outlook.

The post SQM Bets Big With $2.7 Billion Expansion as Lithium Prices Rebound and Demand Surges appeared first on Carbon Credits.

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The Strategic Case for Nature-Based Carbon Investments

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Nature-based carbon investments deserve consideration when they address a specific business dependency and produce outcomes you can measure. Imagine Moonbucks, a global coffee roaster planning next season’s espresso blend. It is considering natural Grade 4 coffee from Jimma, in southwestern Oromia, Ethiopia. Its sourcing decisions affect the roasting schedule and the cash tied up in coffee purchases. Moonbucks needs to understand which measures could protect that supply, what they would cost and how it would judge the results.

1. Define the sourcing problem before choosing a project

Moonbucks needs a dependable component for its espresso blend. Its procurement team wants continuity of volume and an agreed cup profile. Replacing a shipment at short notice could require new sample approval and changes to the blend, and given the schedules for cultivation, processing, and freight delivery, is practically impossible. Moonbucks needs to get this right, and its initial concern is inconsistent deliveries. It commissions an assessment of the supplying farms and post-harvest chain. The questions cover land condition, harvest availability and whether drying or storage problems are affecting saleable lots.

This distinction changes the investment brief. A tree-planting proposal cannot be assumed to fix drying problems. Better storage cannot restore eroded land. The team must establish which problem exists before selecting the response.

CCC’s guide to finding nature-based solutions in your supply chain explains where to look. Here, the next task is to turn a broad concern into a testable proposal.

2. Develop nature-based carbon investments around the actual supply chain

The assessment would trace Moonbucks’ purchases back through the exporter and supplying producer groups. Which farms supply the contracted lots? Who controls land-management decisions? How long does the buyer expect to maintain the purchasing relationship?

Furthermore, Jimma natural Grade 4 cannot be treated as interchangeable with every Ethiopian coffee. Moonbucks would need to test any substitute against its own blend and quality requirements.

Suppose Moonbucks’ assessment identifies an opportunity to maintain shade trees and restore vegetation along exposed streambanks. The IPCC describes agroforestry as a way to store carbon in vegetation and soil, with potential benefits for erosion control and water quality.1 Moonbucks would need local advice on species, growing conditions and maintenance before deciding how these measures fit its sourcing plan.

The proposal now has a defined sourcing connection and a candidate intervention. The next steps are to test its effect on production, assess carbon eligibility and build the financial case.

3. Compare the proposal with other ways to protect supply

WBCSD’s Nature-based Solutions Blueprint recommends comparing nature-based options with other responses across their benefits and costs.2 For Moonbucks, that means evaluating the landscape proposal alongside drying improvements, storage controls and alternative sourcing arrangements.

The product’s natural-process designation matters. Moonbucks should examine the drying and dry-milling chain alongside land conditions. Its team would check storage practices, contamination risks and incoming-lot quality to see whether problems arise before or after the coffee leaves the farms.

The revised proposal might combine land stewardship with separate post-harvest controls. Each component needs its own purpose and budget. A sustainability label should not obscure which activity is expected to solve which problem.

The project develops as the evidence improves. Its scope should follow the diagnosis rather than preserve the first idea unchanged.

4. Establish what the carbon outcome could count toward

Moonbucks’ sustainability team now tests the proposed carbon case separately from the sourcing case. Is the objective a measurable change in Moonbucks’ value-chain emissions, verified credits for separate voluntary use, or distinct outcomes under carefully defined arrangements?

Scope 3 covers value-chain emissions. A purchasing relationship alone does not prove that a farm intervention can be included in Moonbucks’ inventory. The team needs an applicable accounting method, defensible boundaries and evidence supporting attribution.

SBTi’s FLAG Guidance (forest, land and agriculture), version 1.2, says purchased credits used as offsets cannot meet near-term FLAG or energy and industry targets. Eligible land-based removals are subject to accounting requirements.3 Moonbucks needs to test its proposal against those rules before including an outcome in its targets.

For Moonbucks’ Jimma proposal, maintaining existing trees and establishing new vegetation could involve different carbon questions. Specialists must examine the baseline and additionality, meaning what changes because the project proceeds. They must also assess measurement and the risk that stored carbon is lost. CCC’s MRV and additionality article introduces those tests.

Until that work is complete, Moonbucks should not budget an assumed Scope 3 reduction or credit-sale receipt. Direct emissions reductions remain the priority.

5. Build a financial case that survives weaker assumptions

Moonbucks’ finance team would now build a multi-year budget. UNEP’s State of Finance for Nature 2023 compares current finance with the investment needed to meet climate, biodiversity and land-restoration goals.4 The company would cost its proposed activities, farmer participation and ongoing monitoring. Verification, where required, is a separate expense. Maintenance and responsibility for replacing failed plantings must remain visible after the initial establishment budget ends.

Operational benefits need equally careful treatment. If fewer rejected lots reduce emergency purchasing, count that saving once. Do not add “supply resilience” as another financial benefit when it represents the same avoided cost.

Moonbucks should compare a base case with slower benefits, higher implementation costs and no carbon revenue. It should also distinguish production outcomes from quality and shipment outcomes. A single good harvest would not prove that the landscape intervention caused better delivery performance.

A project can remain worth funding even when its carbon case needs more work. That decision must rest on the operational evidence and the company’s objectives, without unsupported environmental claims.

6. Fund a pilot with a clear expansion decision

Moonbucks’ first approval would fund a bounded pilot, rather than commit the entire sourcing program. Before spending, Moonbucks would agree on participating farms, responsibilities and the evidence needed at review.

Its scorecard could track farmer participation, implementation costs and plant survival, alongside accepted coffee volumes and lot-quality results. Carbon measurements would follow the selected method. Farm-level traceability must connect the intervention to the actual sourcing relationship.

Suppose Moonbucks’ review later finds that storage changes explain most quality improvements, while the land measures need longer observation. Those findings would shape the next decision: expand the proven component, adjust the landscape work or pause further spending. They would not justify crediting all improvements to tree planting.

This gives nature-based carbon investments a practical place in a multi-year strategy. Funding increases as the evidence supports it, and the project can change direction before a larger commitment.

Discuss a sourcing opportunity with CCC

Carbon Credit Capital’s nature-based supply-chain investment service uses its Dual-Value Model to examine supply-chain economics alongside potential sustainability outcomes.

Schedule a consultation to discuss your sourcing exposure and the questions to resolve before allocating capital.

Sources

  1. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Climate Change 2022: Mitigation of Climate Change, Chapter 7, Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Uses, section 7.4.3.3 (Agroforestry).
  2. World Business Council for Sustainable Development (WBCSD), Nature-based Solutions Blueprint, 5 June 2024.
  3. Science Based Targets initiative (SBTi), Forest, Land and Agriculture Science-Based Target-Setting Guidance, version 1.2, March 2026, section 3.1.4, pp. 37–38.
  4. United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), State of Finance for Nature 2023, 2023.
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Carbon Footprint

How to buy plastic credits, and what to check before you do

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A plastic credit funds the collection of plastic waste in places where no formal system exists to collect it. Each credit represents a measured, independently audited quantity of plastic taken out of the environment or returned to use, tracked on a public registry.

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Carbon Footprint

EU carbon credit claims after 27 September 2026

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EU carbon credit claims changed on 27 September 2026, the day the Directive (EU) 2024/825 began to apply across the European Union. The change is narrow. It changes how a company can talk about the credits it buys. A product can no longer be called neutral on the strength of compensation alone; however, every specific, evidenced statement about what a company measured, reduced, and funded stays fully available.

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