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Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile (SQM) delivered a solid set of results for the third quarter of 2025, even though earnings came in slightly below what Wall Street expected. The company reported net income of $0.62 per share, just $0.02 short of analyst forecasts.

Revenue for the quarter reached $1.17 billion, supported by strong performance in its lithium business. Record lithium sales volumes played a major role in boosting the company’s top line, showing how quickly demand has improved across global battery markets.

Lithium Momentum Pushes SQM Toward a Strong 2025

  • Gross profit climbed 23.1% year-over-year to $345.8 million, marking a strong rebound after a period of weaker prices earlier in the cycle.

Reuters noted that SQM benefited from rising lithium prices as electric vehicle (EV) demand recovered and large-scale battery storage projects expanded around the world. With these trends gaining strength, SQM raised its 2025 global lithium demand growth forecast to more than 20%, up from its earlier estimate of around 17%.

Looking ahead, SQM maintains a positive outlook for the market. The company plans to invest $2.7 billion over the next three years to expand lithium production capacity in Chile. SQM expects lithium prices to stay on an upward trend in the fourth quarter of 2025 as demand from EVs and energy storage systems continues to accelerate.

SQM lithiun
Source: SQM

China’s Bullish Outlook Sparks a Market Rally

While SQM’s results were strong on their own, global sentiment around lithium improved even more after China’s Ganfeng Lithium issued a highly optimistic forecast. According to Bloomberg, Ganfeng Chairman Li Liangbin projected 30% growth in lithium demand next year. His comments immediately triggered a sharp rally in both lithium prices and mining stocks.

The most-active lithium carbonate futures contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange jumped 9%, hitting the daily upper limit of 95,200 yuan per ton (around $13,400). Investors reacted quickly, sending shares of major producers higher. SQM’s stock rose as much as 14%, and Albemarle shares climbed about 9.3% during the rally.

This price surge helped strengthen SQM’s quarterly financials. The company reported net income of $178.4 million, a 36% jump from $131.4 million a year earlier.

Revenue climbed 8.9%, rising from $1.08 billion to $1.17 billion over the same period. With growing investor confidence, SQM’s U.S.-listed shares touched $64.60, their highest level in more than two years.

lithium price SQM
Source: SQM

Lithium Market Shifts Into Recovery

Despite these strong results, the lithium industry is still navigating a market that has gone through significant volatility. Lithium prices cooled sharply after reaching record highs in 2022, as supply growth outpaced demand. This pressured margins for SQM, Albemarle, and other major producers.

However, the second half of 2025 brought a noticeable turnaround. SQM said demand between July and September was stronger than expected.

CEO Ricardo Ramos told analysts that although the market remained volatile, SQM was “cautiously optimistic” about the coming months. He emphasized that fundamentals remain strong because demand is rising not just for electric vehicles but also from energy storage systems, which are becoming essential for renewable power grids.

SQM Sees Sharp Demand Jump Ahead of Codelco Deal

Additionally, the mining giant expects global lithium demand in 2025 to exceed 1.5 million metric tons, representing a 25% jump from 2024. Demand could rise further to 1.7 million metric tons by 2026, according to Pablo Hernandez, vice president of strategy and development for SQM’s Chilean lithium division.

However, even with stronger demand signals, he noted that the company remains conservative when estimating next year’s growth.

The company is also preparing to finalize its long-awaited partnership with state-owned miner Codelco. The joint venture will expand lithium extraction in the Atacama salt flat. With China’s market regulator now approving the deal, the final step is receiving a sign-off from Chile’s comptroller. CEO Ricardo Ramos said he is confident the deal will close before the end of the year.

lithium demand

JP Morgan Raises Long-Term Lithium Price Forecast

JP Morgan raised its long-term outlook for lithium prices as demand stayed strong and mining costs climbed. Earlier this year, the bank cut its long-term spodumene forecast to $1,100 per ton. After reassessing global trends, it now sees that number as too low and has increased its estimate to $1,300 per ton.

JP MORGAN lithium price forecast
Source: JP Morgan

Why the Upgrade?

  • Stronger Demand: Rapid EV and energy storage growth is expected to keep long-term demand elevated. Rising capital and operating costs also mean new projects need higher prices to advance.

  • Market Alignment: Investors already assume long-term prices in the $1,200–$1,300 per ton range. JP Morgan’s new forecast better reflects market sentiment and helps identify trading inflection points.

  • Supply Discipline: Australian miners say operations at Bald Hill, Wodgina, and Ngungaju won’t restart until prices exceed $1,200 per ton. JP Morgan sees similar discipline emerging in China, reducing the risk of oversupply.

The bank kept its long-term lithium carbonate and hydroxide assumptions at $15,000 per ton, calling these levels “incentive prices” for downstream investment. In the near term, JP Morgan lifted its 2026–2027 spodumene outlook from $800 per ton to $1,100–$1,200 per ton as it expects a tighter market and potential deficits.

The Bottom Line

SQM is benefiting from a fast-improving lithium market driven by strong EV and battery storage momentum. Rising prices, improved demand, and growing investor enthusiasm are lifting the company’s performance. Although volatility remains, SQM enters 2026 with record volumes, a solid financial foundation, and a clearer long-term strategy supported by disciplined supply and a stronger pricing outlook.

The post SQM Bets Big With $2.7 Billion Expansion as Lithium Prices Rebound and Demand Surges appeared first on Carbon Credits.

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How to improve Scope 3 data accuracy for CSRD

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For most businesses, the emissions that matter most sit outside their own walls. Scope 3 emissions, everything generated across your value chain, from the suppliers who make your inputs to the customers who use your products, typically make up the majority of a company’s total carbon footprint. Under the Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive (CSRD), those value-chain emissions now have to be measured and disclosed with a rigour that spend-based estimates alone struggle to satisfy. This guide sets out how to improve Scope 3 data accuracy for CSRD: the calculation methods open to you, how to move from estimates to verified supplier data, and how to govern that data so it holds up to audit.

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How community stewardship makes carbon credits durable

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A carbon credit is a commitment that extends well into the future. The tonne of CO₂ compensated for today from a nature-based carbon project must remain out of the atmosphere for good, which means the forest behind the credit has to remain standing long after the transaction is complete. For any buyer, this raises a defining question: What ensures that the forest endures?

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Why Conventional Carbon Offsets Are Losing Boardroom Credibility

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What replaced the cheap REDD credit on the boardroom slide deck, and why procurement is leading the rewrite.

Three years ago, a corporate slide showing a portfolio of cheap REDD+ credits could carry a board meeting. The number was big, the price was low, and the press release wrote itself. Today, that same slide gets sent back with questions. The questions are uncomfortable, the answers are unclear, and your general counsel is suddenly in the room.

Conventional carbon offsets are not dead. The voluntary carbon market retired 202 million tonnes in 2025, and the Morgan Stanley Institute for Sustainable Investing survey published in January 2026 confirmed that interest from corporate buyers remains substantial. What changed is the credibility threshold. The integrity floor has risen, the disclosure scrutiny has tightened, and the buyer profile has shifted. This article tracks what changed, what sophisticated buyers now ask before signing, and what serious corporates are putting on the board slide instead.

What boards used to buy, and why it stopped working

The 2020 to 2022 model was simple: buy a large tranche of avoidance credits at low single-digit prices, retire them against the company footprint, announce the carbon-neutral claim, and move on. Most of those credits came from REDD+ projects, renewable energy installations in countries where the renewable energy was already economic, or methane projects with thin documentation.

Several things broke that model. Academic research published in 2023, including a widely cited Science paper, found that the majority of REDD+ credits issued under the most common methodologies did not represent additional reductions when tested against rigorous counterfactuals. The Voluntary Carbon Markets Integrity Initiative published its Claims Code of Practice, which sets requirements for what companies can credibly claim from credit use. The European Union finalised its Green Claims Directive, restricting how companies can describe products as climate-neutral. France’s Décret 2022-539 already restricts carbon neutrality advertising. California’s AB 1305 imposes disclosure requirements on any company making net-zero or carbon-neutral claims while doing business in the state.

The collective effect: the cheap credit no longer buys the announcement, and the announcement now carries litigation risk.

The integrity reset: ICVCM, VCMI, and what changed

The Integrity Council for the Voluntary Carbon Market published the Core Carbon Principles in 2023 and began assessing methodologies against them in 2024. The first methodologies received the CCP label later that year. The point of the label is to give corporate buyers a defensible quality screen they can cite in disclosure.

The Voluntary Carbon Markets Integrity Initiative complements this on the demand side. Its Claims Code of Practice defines what a buyer can say (Silver, Gold, or Platinum claims, with associated requirements) based on the quality of credits used and the underlying decarbonisation strategy. Together, CCP and VCMI build a quality stack: CCP on the supply, VCMI on the claim, with the science-based target sitting underneath both.

The reset is not a ban on offsets. It is a ratchet. Credits that meet the new bar continue to clear; credits that do not, do not. The Morgan Stanley survey found that 61% of current buyers like the CCP label concept but that supply of labelled credits remains limited. That supply constraint is now visible in pricing.

What sophisticated buyers ask before they sign

The questions on the procurement scorecard have changed. A 2022 buyer might have asked about price, vintage, and project type. A 2026 buyer asks five different questions before any of those.

  • What does the counterfactual look like, and who validated it.
  • What is the permanence regime, and what is the buffer pool exposure.
  • What is the leakage risk, and how is it mitigated.
  • What rating has the project received from the independent ratings agencies (Sylvera, BeZero, Calyx Global), and what was the rationale.
  • What is the documentation discipline that survives an audit four years from now when the procurement team that signed the contract has moved on.

If the vendor cannot answer those five questions on a first call, the conversation ends. Conversely, if the vendor can answer them with documented specificity, the conversation often expands beyond a single transaction toward a multi-year engagement.

Where this leaves your near-term commitments

You probably have near-term commitments that pre-date the integrity reset. Public targets to be carbon neutral by 2025 or 2030. Product-level claims that ran in last year’s marketing. Disclosed reduction trajectories that assumed continued access to cheap credits.

You have three workable paths. The first is to re-baseline your strategy, replacing the most exposed credits with higher-quality alternatives and adjusting the public language to match what you can defend. The second is to shift the underlying spend from offsetting outside your value chain to investing inside your value chain, where reductions count against Scope 3 directly and the audit trail is cleaner. The third is to keep the strategy and absorb the risk, which is increasingly the most expensive option once you price in litigation, restatement, and reputational exposure.

Most serious buyers are choosing the second path. It moves the carbon spend from a compliance cost to a procurement and resilience investment, and it removes the central failure point of the legacy model: the disconnect between where the emissions occurred and where the reductions sat. Nature-based supply chain investments, structured under the GHG Protocol Land Sector and Removals Standard and aligned to the SBTi FLAG Guidance, are the asset class that fits this brief. They generate inventory-grade reductions, they produce audit-grade documentation, and they survive the new claim restrictions because the carbon math sits inside the value chain that the disclosure already covers.

If you are reassessing a carbon strategy under the new integrity bar, or rebuilding a board narrative that has to survive a more skeptical audience, the carbon and sustainability experts at Carbon Credit Capital can help. The Dual-Value Model gives you a defensible alternative to legacy offset purchases, with the documentation and operational integration that survives the procurement scorecard and the audit. Schedule a consultation.

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