The 2015 Paris Agreement to tackle climate change famously does not name the controversial root cause of the very problem it is intended to solve: fossil fuels.
In the year of its 10th anniversary, Gillian Cooper, political director of the Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty Initiative (FFNPT), described the Paris accord as “our North Star” in efforts to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius.
“Unfortunately, as it is structured, it does not mention fossil fuels,” she added in an interview with Climate Home ahead of the mid-year UN climate talks in Bonn. “That is a massive omission because it is the root cause of over 80% of our emissions. So there is very little guidance as to how countries concretely will be able to transition from fossil fuels.”
Cooper argues that another international treaty is needed to provide that support to governments – a goal towards which her organisation has been working since 2020.
“The capacity of countries to transition from fossil fuels varies considerably across the globe and concrete solutions are needed to support an equitable, managed transition,” she said. “The treaty will provide greater guidance and support.”
Growing support for action on fossil fuels
In response to a call by Pacific Island nations back in 2015 for a moratorium on coal, the FFNPT initiative seeks to foster global cooperation to halt expansion of this planet-heating fuel, as well as oil and gas, and accelerate the transition to renewable energy. With 17 participating nations so far, it is in talks with more countries to sign up to the commitment.
Its members so far are Antigua and Barbuda, Bahamas, Colombia, Micronesia, Fiji, Nauru, Niue, Pakistan, Palau, Marshall Islands, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Timor-Leste, Tonga, Tuvalu, and Vanuatu.
Cooper noted that meetings will be held with some delegations during the Bonn climate talks, especially target countries in Africa and Asia considered key due to their dependence on fossil fuels. “We are fairly confident that we will have more countries by the time we get to COP30,” she added.
Brazil’s current push to approve new oil exploration projects in the Amazon basin, with licences set to be auctioned in mid-June, would make it difficult for President Lula da Silva’s government to join the FFNPT.
The Amazon rainforest emerges as the new global oil frontier
But in its role as the COP30 Presidency, Brazil could create the political momentum needed to incorporate more ambitious language on fossil fuels in the final decisions stemming from November’s climate summit in Belem – something it has indicated it wants to do.
That aim is to drive forward the outcome of COP28 in 2023, in which countries agreed to transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems – but since then there has been little concrete progress within the UN climate process on how that could be done.
Resistance from major producers
A Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty could help sidestep the objections of major oil and gas-producing nations, experts told a symposium in Bonn organised by the initiative.
Peter Newell, professor of international relations at the University of Sussex, said it is expected that big fossil fuel producers like Saudi Arabia or Russia will resist – but that might change as the world moves towards cleaner energy.
“These countries usually produce for export to Europe or other countries. So, if demand falls, it will be easier to convince them to reduce production,” Newell told Climate Home.
Against the common narrative of “fossil fuels are key to energy security”, he encouraged people to ask whose energy is being secured, how, and at what cost? And in response to the argument that fossil fuels are needed for development, he questioned why in many developing countries that are rich in fossil fuels, there is still so much energy poverty.
Newell believes that there will come a time when, due to the worsening impacts of climate change, or as the initiative gains more members, even big oil and gas nations might want to join the FFNPT.
“The challenge will be to have enough countries that want a strong version of the treaty and not the weaker version that large producers may seek to push,” he said.
Another hurdle is fighting disinformation around the initiative’s aims. “Those countries considering endorsing will want answers to tough questions about why they should join,” noted Newell.
Complementary to UN processes
Meanwhile, discussions about what shape a treaty to phase out fossil fuels could take are gathering momentum. At a ministerial meeting in late 2024 at COP29 in Baku, the initiative’s member countries highlighted the importance of identifying a framework.
One path would be through existing UN processes, such as the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) or the UN Environment Programme (UNEP). But there is a catch. “They are consensus-based decision-making forums,” said Cooper. “This dilutes the ambition that we are pursuing.”
And if an FFNPT were to be pursued via the UN General Assembly (UNGA), it would require a two-thirds majority of states to approve it – and likely take many years to advance.
Comment: COP30 must heed the elephant in the room: fossil fuels
“The other pathway is a dedicated process outside the UN,” said Cooper, noting that this is what happened in the case of the Mine Ban Treaty, the Convention on Cluster Munitions and the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons. “A small group of progressive states can initiate a treaty process and start to change the norms and influence other multilateral spaces where climate change and fossil fuels can be discussed,” she added.
In that case, a connection with existing UN processes could be maintained, adopting a dual-track approach that is independent of the UN but still able to shape resolutions at the UNGA – for example, detailing countries’ needs in transitioning away from fossil fuels.
The analysis now being conducted by the FFNPT’s political and technical team will be presented to ministers of participating countries when they meet in Belem in November, so they can decide on a way forward. Building on this, the idea is to work on a diplomatic conference that would frame the issue and launch a mandate for the treaty.
Text or no text?
While initiative is called a “treaty”, it has yet to start work on a draft text. This is partly to avoid falling prey to the arguments, pressures and blocking that small details such as a comma or a verb can provoke, as often happens in the UN climate negotiations.
Whether a text will be developed will become clearer next year, but in the meantime, the initiative is researching and advising its member countries on areas of policy that are key to progressing their energy transition – work that could form the basis of a treaty, Cooper said.
Some of these levers were discussed at the FFNPT Research and Policy Symposium in Bonn ahead of the June negotiations. They include trade incentives and opportunities, legal and security aspects for actors involved in the transition, and financing mechanisms for a rapid and fair fossil fuel phase-out.
Funding a fossil fuel phase-out
“The [FFNPT] treaty has to recognize that many Global South countries are in what we call a climate debt trap,” said Jwala Rambarran, independent expert and senior policy advisor for the Vulnerable Twenty Group (V20) of nations.
“They require considerable investments to finance their climate resilience – and at the same time they have limited fiscal space simply because they are highly indebted. And part of that debt arises because they have to finance the response to a climate shock.”
The challenge for the treaty is to find ways to fund a just energy transition without worsening debt further and avoiding dependence on loans as the primary form of financing. From 2016 to 2022, 90% of financing provided by multilateral development banks was in the form of loans, according to the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).
“All of this is taking place within this global financial architecture that is 80 years old and was created when many of these countries did not even exist or they were part of colonial systems,” Rambarran said, pointing to the need for reform.
The idea of creating a new fund for the treaty emerged from ministerial discussions. A report by the OECD noted that as of 2022, more than 94 green climate funds had been set up, with 81 of them active, but their financial contribution accounted for less than 1% of global climate finance flows. So why create yet another?
That is being explored as part of the FFNPT discussions, said Rambarran, alongside issues such as: who would provide the money, who would be able to access the fund, would finance be provided as loans or grants, and would it be filled by donor countries or a tax on fossil fuels?
“I think it is good that the treaty is examining those questions and looking at the different types of mechanisms,” he added.
The post What could a Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty look like? appeared first on Climate Home News.
What could a Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty look like?
The Endangered Species Committee, known as the God Squad, issued a rare exemption from compliance with the Endangered Species Act for oil and gas activities in the Gulf of Mexico.
Environmental groups are suing the Trump administration over its decision to exempt oil and gas drilling in the Gulf of Mexico from complying with the Endangered Species Act, a move they say threatens both the coastline region and the law designed to protect threatened plants and animals.
Environmental Groups Take Trump Administration’s ‘God Squad’ to Court
The ocean’s fastest and most formidable predators might also be the most physiologically vulnerable to warming waters, researchers warn.
The evolutionary edge that fueled great white shark dominance for millions of years could soon become its greatest downfall.
Climate Change
China Briefing 16 April 2026: Billions for grid | Petrochemical plan | China’s high-seas bid
Welcome to Carbon Brief’s China Briefing.
China Briefing handpicks and explains the most important climate and energy stories from China over the past fortnight. Subscribe for free here.
Key developments
Surge in grid investment
TRILLION-YUAN ERA: China’s two largest power grid operators invested a total of 167.5bn yuan ($24.5bn) in the first quarter of 2026, reported state broadcaster CCTV. State Grid said that during this period it spent more than 10bn yuan on connecting “new energy” projects to the grid, up 50% from last year, reported Shanghai-based news outlet the Paper. The two state-owned enterprises (SOEs) plan to invest 1tn yuan ($146bn) annually over the 15th five-year plan period (2026-2030), said finance news outlet Yicai.
POWER CURBED: However, in what Bloomberg called a “clear signal that the grid is struggling to absorb all the extra power from the rapid growth in renewables”, solar and wind utilisation rates – the percentage of total power generated by a source that is used by the grid – fell again at the start of the year. They stood at 90.8% and 91.5%, respectively, in January and February 2026, according to a post by an SOE-linked research institute republished by energy news outlet International Energy Net. The rates are now “approaching [minimum] limits that the government had relaxed only two years ago”, added Bloomberg.
SIX PROVINCES SUPERVISED: A recent meeting of the National Energy Administration (NEA) concluded that China’s renewable installations had seen “steady growth” in 2026, adding that the body must make “sustained efforts” to “expand” investment in renewable power, reported International Energy Net. Separately, International Energy Net also said that the NEA will increase “supervision” of the power sectors in six provinces – Hebei, Jilin, Xinjiang, Fujian, Hunan and Guangdong. The outlet said this would entail scrutinising how they implement “energy conservation and carbon reduction” tasks, with a “focus” on coal plants, how they construct large clean-energy bases and their consumption of new energy, as well as their power infrastructure and markets.
Conflict spurred cooperation with China
CHINA ‘WINNING’: In Vienna, Chinese climate envoy Liu Zhenmin told state news agency Xinhua that the Middle East conflict has created an urgent need for countries to rethink energy security strategies and accelerate the energy transition. Xinhua also cited Liu as warning against over-reliance on a single source of energy imports. Meanwhile, state broadcaster CCTV published a segment arguing that a “greener” system will “provide a strong guarantee” for energy security, although it did not mention the conflict. Several outlets have continued to highlight how low-carbon energy has helped China weather the conflict and boosted sales of Chinese technologies, including the New York Times, Wall Street Journal, Associated Press, Indian Express, Washington Post and Bloomberg. Semafor said China was “winning the global energy war”.
MANY MEETINGS: United Arab Emirates crown prince Sheikh Khaled bin Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan and Chinese president Xi Jinping discussed how to “prevent further impacts” from the conflict on energy security, said Xinhua. Australian prime minister Anthony Albanese said he addressed “regional energy security” with Chinese premier Li Qiang, reported Reuters. A post by China-Russia Information Net on nationalist media outlet Guancha quoted a Chinese diplomat in Russia telling reporters that “current dramatic changes in the international situation” are causing the two countries to discuss “further energy cooperation”. The Philippines is continuing to consider “oil and gas cooperation” with China, despite territorial disputes, Reuters also reported.
‘PROFOUND’ IMPACTS: Energy administration head Wang Hongzhi wrote a chapter in a “study guide” to the 15th five-year plan, published by industry outlet China Power News Net, in which he noted that “geopolitical conflicts are profoundly reshaping the global energy landscape”. He added that “traditional fossil fuels must continue to serve as a safety net while [China] simultaneously accelerates efforts to transition [to clean energy sources]”. Environment minister Huang Runqiu wrote in the CPPCC Daily, the official newspaper for the advisory body Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC), that China will “earnestly” carry out “carbon peaking actions” in the next five years. Huang also said that, with “concerted efforts”, China’s 15th five-year plan targets are “achievable”.
Petrochemical plan published
UPGRADE DEADLINE: China issued a plan for either upgrading or phasing out “outdated” petrochemical plants by 2029, reported Reuters. It added that the plan did not confirm explicitly “how many plants may be upgraded or phased out”. The news outlet Economic Daily said that, according to the document, China would focus on upgrading or phasing out outdated capacity “as determined in 2025”, while also developing a “long-term working system” for assessing the industry. According to the full document, published on the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) website, carbon-emission assessments were part of the selection criteria, with policymakers planning on “developing or revising” further standards for carbon emissions under the plan.
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CHEMICAL OVERCAPACITY: The Paper quoted MIIT official Chang Guowu telling reporters that the plan will address the “low standards of design and construction” and “outdated processes” in older plants that lead to “significant” environmental risks. Xinhua said that, of China’s more than 27,000 petrochemical plants, “more than 1,600…outdated facilities” were reported in 2025, 600 of which required upgrading. Chemical news WeChat account WeLink Chemicals noted the policy was released against a backdrop of “overcapacity and declining demand for road transport fuels”, with the government having “stepped up efforts to curb overcapacity” in 2025.
More China news
- TARGET PLEDGED: China will cut the carbon intensity of its international shipping vessels by at least 15% by 2030 compared to 2025 levels, said climate outlet IdeaCarbon. It said China will also “significantly enhance” its influence in emission reduction talks at the International Maritime Organization.
- SANCHEZ VISITED: China and Spain “can contribute to finding solutions” for environmental issues, Spanish leader Pedro Sanchez told Xi Jinping, according to the Associated Press. Ahead of the meeting, Sanchez also argued China should play a more substantial role on climate change, said the Singapore-based Straits Times.
- CHINA COMMITTED: Huang Runqiu reaffirmed China’s support, “as always”, for global climate governance in a meeting with UN advisor Selwin Hart, said the Paper.
- FUNDING HALTED: The EU “quietly” approved a plan to prevent EU funds being provided to “clean technology projects containing Chinese inverters”, said the Hong Kong-based South China Morning Post.
- AI UNVEILED: Chinese researchers developed a “first-of-its-kind artificial intelligence model designed to track carbon emissions”, reported Xinhua, adding that it “could shift the balance of power” in global climate negotiations, such as by quantifying the “embedded carbon” of products that developed countries import from China.
- CONTROLS CONSIDERED: China is deliberating “limiting exports” to the US of the equipment needed to make solar panels, according to Reuters.
Spotlight
The debate over China’s bid to host the “high seas” treaty
The final preparatory commission for the Biodiversity Beyond National Jurisdiction (BBNJ) agreement has closed, laying the groundwork for the treaty’s first conference of the parties (COP1).
One key agenda item was China’s presentation of a bid to host the secretariat. In this issue, Carbon Brief examines the debate surrounding the bid.
The BBNJ agreement, also known as the High Seas Treaty, governs the sustainable use and conservation of the “high seas” – marine areas outside national jurisdictions – with a new United Nations (UN) body established to oversee enforcement.
As well as facing significant impacts from climate change, the ocean plays an important role as a carbon sink, absorbing around 29% of man-made emissions.
The treaty “recognis[es]” the need to address oceanic biodiversity loss and ecosystem degradation, according to previous Carbon Brief analysis, identifying key impacts from climate change, acidification, pollution and “unsustainable” use.
It aims to encourage conservation and sustainable use of marine biodiversity in the high seas, such as by managing “marine genetic resources”, creating protected areas in the ocean, developing environmental impact assessments and facilitating capacity-building and transfer of marine technology.
China’s bid
China’s bid to host the secretariat focused on its “sustainability efforts” and “commitment to multilateralism”, reported the Earth Negotiations Bulletin.
The country’s bid document drew attention to several of its emission-reduction efforts, including “green shipping corridors” and strengthening carbon sinks through protecting mangroves, seagrass beds and coral reefs.
In a speech, Chinese ambassador to the UN Fu Cong said that the bid “reflects China’s unwavering support” for multilateralism, adding that a successful Chinese bid would lead to the first UN-related body headquartered in the Asia Pacific region. He said:
“That means it will not only be welcomed, but also be prioritised. It will have the full backing from all levels of government in China and its people.”
Li Shuo, director at the Asia Society Policy Institute’s China climate hub, attended the meetings. He said in a note that China’s decision to bid “reportedly came from [President] Xi Jinping”, galvanising a coordinated cross-ministry effort to secure host the secretariat.
Creating debate
China entering the race has caused a stir.
As host, it could inhibit “robust environmental safeguards” by “embedding elements of its domestic governance model” into how the treaty operates, wrote Dr Chime Youdon, research fellow at India’s National Maritime Foundation, on the organisation’s platform.
But such concerns are weakened by the fact that China would “want the treaty to function” if it were host, argued Prof Philippe Le Billon and Zelda Ladefoged, professor and master’s student at the University of British Columbia, in an article for the Conversation.
Nevertheless, they noted “sustained” worries around China’s influence, given the extensive involvement of its companies in distant-water fishing and deep-sea mining, which are not covered in the treaty.
Li told Carbon Brief that, as far as he saw, no-one was “actively pushing back against” the bid on any of the above grounds. Instead, he observed “anxieties” around “accreditation, information security and visa and conference participation issues”.
Daniel Kachelriess, cross-cutting coordinator at the High Seas Alliance, an umbrella group of non-governmental organisations focused on ocean governance, echoed this in comments to Carbon Brief. He said “values like neutrality and impartiality, transparency and accountability” are important for the decision, as well as practical issues such as “reliable” internet access.
The Financial Times reported that Chinese delegates have offered immunity to attendees and flexibility around visas, citing unnamed sources.
But a successful Chinese bid could be a “significant escalation” of China’s involvement in global environmental governance, wrote Le Billon and Ladefoged.
As such, the BBNJ could prove a “case study” of sustaining environmental progress without the US and of China “learning to translate its ambitions into leadership”, said Li.
Watch, read, listen
PROFIT PRESSURE: The Economic Observer investigated how higher profit remittance requirements for state-owned enterprises is placing pressure on the balance sheets of power, coal and other energy companies.
CARNEY’S CALCULUS: The Wire China Podcast discussed how a deteriorating relationship with the US affected Canada’s approach to importing Chinese electric vehicles.
AFRICAN SOLAR: Climate Home News interviewed a renewables company working in Africa about what the end of Chinese solar export rebates could mean for the continent.
FUEL PRICE WOES: The New York Times published a video about how rising diesel prices are hitting China’s long-haul truck drivers hard.
140%
The year-on-year rise in March in exports of Chinese new-energy vehicles (NEVs, including both plug-in hybrids and pure electric vehicles), reported Bloomberg, citing renewed interest caused by the “global energy shock stemming from the Iran war”.
-14%
The year-on-year fall in March in domestic sales of Chinese NEVs, reported Yicai, citing “changes to the NEV purchase tax exemption and the overlapping effects of the Chinese New Year holiday”.
New science
- Between 1978 and 2023, emissions of “gaseous reactive nitrogen” – including ammonia and nitrous oxide – from croplands in China more than doubled | PNAS
- There are “disparities in [the] energy transition” between households in rural China, with small, low-income households and areas in the Loess plateau facing a “disproportionate energy burden and energy poverty” | Communications Earth and Environment
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China Briefing is written by Anika Patel, with contributions from Lekai Liu, and edited by Simon Evans. Please send tips and feedback to china@carbonbrief.org
The post China Briefing 16 April 2026: Billions for grid | Petrochemical plan | China’s high-seas bid appeared first on Carbon Brief.
China Briefing 16 April 2026: Billions for grid | Petrochemical plan | China’s high-seas bid
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