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With governments due to announce ambitious emissions reduction targets at a UN summit in New York this week, the UN climate chief warned on Monday they will not add up to what is needed to keep global warming to the limits in the Paris Agreement.

Countries were asked by the UN climate change body to publish their new national climate plans (NDCs) by the end of September, in time to be included in a key summary report next month comparing those pledges with the global cuts scientists say are needed.

With around 110 countries lined up to speak at UN headquarters on Wednesday, a clearer picture will start to emerge on the scale of the gap between emissions-cutting targets and the reductions in planet-heating gases required to meet the 1.5C warming limit – 43% below 2019 levels by 2030 and 60% by 2035.

The European Union was unable to meet the September deadline because of political differences and will only present a range described as a “statement of intent” in New York this week.

China, meanwhile, is not expected to deliver an NDC that would align its efforts with the 1.5C limit. Heads of state from India and Indonesia are not scheduled to participate in the New York summit and so are likely to announce their plans later.

“We know [the NDCs] are going to be softer than what science dictates,” the UN’s climate head Simon Stiell told the opening of Climate Week in New York.

At the COP30 climate negotiations in Brazil in November, he added, “the focus… will not be what countries have presented, but how will they respond to those submissions – and that primary response is about accelerating implementation [of the NDCs], just getting it done.”

    Complex process delivering results

    Despite the expected emissions gap, growing criticism of the UN climate process, and rising global temperatures, Stiell maintained that the 2015 Paris Agreement is working to curb global warming. Projections before it was adopted suggesting a 5C rise are now down to around 3C.

    “It is slower than science dictates. It is a very, very complex process, but it is delivering results,” he said. His agency’s upcoming report will show how much further warming estimates can be lowered towards the 1.5C goal, he added.

    “We won’t be at 1.5 but we… will have inched forward, so progress is being made,” he added.

    The company tracking energy transition minerals back to the mines

    Speaking alongside COP30 president André Corrêa do Lago, both men called for more effort to translate the decisions made by the UN process into stronger climate action in the world outside. For that to happen, they said, the benefits need to be communicated more clearly to the wider public.

    “What I believe is important is for people to have confidence in the process,” Corrêa do Lago said. “We have to show that there are solutions, and we have to show that it is economically intelligent logic and useful to fight climate change – for jobs, for development. And I think this message is not fully perceived.”

    The veteran Brazilian diplomat added that he hoped the “action agenda” at COP30, which aims to encourage businesses, cities and citizens to ramp up action on climate change, would make the mission more popular.

    Stiell agreed, saying one key challenge is to “dejargonise” the COP negotiations, which are notoriously hard for those on the outside to understand, because of their long texts laden with difficult language and fractious discussions. “It is making what we’re doing more consumable in living rooms,” he said.

    Spreading the renewable energy boom

    In a separate speech on Monday afternoon, the UN climate chief said that, despite the negative “noise”, “the facts show a world aligning with the Paris Agreement”. 

    He emphasised how investment in renewable energy has increased ten-fold in the past 10 years, with investment in clean energy hitting $2 trillion last year alone and more than 90% of new renewables now costing less than the cheapest new fossil fuel option.

    “But this boom is uneven. Its vast benefits are not shared by all,” he added. “Meanwhile, climate disasters are hitting every economy and society harder each year.”

    Stiell called on industry to step up its efforts to decarbonise, saying the transition would lead to “stronger economies, more resilient supply chains, lower costs and lower emissions”.

    IEA says some oil and gas projects must shut early to meet 1.5C limit

    In particular, he urged companies running artificial intelligence (AI) platforms to “power it with renewables, and innovate to drive energy efficiency”. He warned of the need to “blunt its dangerous edges” and to use its power “to drive real-world outcomes: managing microgrids, mapping climate risk, guiding resilient planning”.

    Speaking separately at the Climate Week opening, Mark Patel, a senior partner at McKinsey & Company, said the urgency to scale up AI – which is set for investment of $5.2 trillion by the end of the decade – is currently reigniting demand for fossil fuels and competing for natural resources.

    But, he added, it could instead be used to drive accelerated uptake of renewables and cheap battery storage, as well as nuclear energy and more efficient semiconductors.

    Stiell argued that if the real economy powers forward with climate solutions and the UN talks set a higher bar for that action, with both feeding through to the other, it could lead to “a kind of virtuous loop”.

    The post UN climate chief says new national climate plans will fall short on emissions cuts appeared first on Climate Home News.

    UN climate chief says new national climate plans will fall short on emissions cuts

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    The Land Came First

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    An older teaching about land acknowledgement

    As I have come to understand the spirit and intention of land acknowledgement, I often return to fond memories of my grandmother and her words of wisdom. She taught that the health of the places we call home comes first, because the wellbeing of the people depends on it.

    In her teaching, land acknowledgement began with the land. Long before it became a paragraph read at the start of a meeting, it was a way of recognizing a homeland: its waters, its species, its seasons, and the spirit that revealed whether the place was well.

    Her teaching echoes a practice found across many Indigenous Nations. Haudenosaunee gatherings, for example, have long opened with the Ohén:ton Karihwatéhkwen, the Thanksgiving Address, often translated as “the words that come before all else.” The speaker greets and gives thanks to the people, the earth, the waters, the plants, the animals, the winds, the sun, the moon and the stars. Only after everything that sustains life has been acknowledged does the gathering turn to its own business.

    That order changes what an acknowledgement is for. Its purpose was to share the story of a place with neighbours and to draw them into the work of tending it. People entered the story second, as the ones responsible for what had just been named.

    Understood this way, an acknowledgement does more than open a meeting. It asks us to reconsider where we stand, and what we owe the ground beneath us.

    Nations among nations

    In her teaching, people are one nation among many. The salmon are a nation. So are the cedars, the bison, the medicine plants, and the pollinators. Each belongs to a place, carries its own responsibilities, and offers gifts no other nation can give.

    This idea of kinship runs through many Indigenous philosophies. The phrase “all my relations,” heard in ceremonies and gatherings across Turtle Island, is a reminder that family extends beyond people to the animals, plants, waters and lands that make life possible. Some Indigenous languages carry the same understanding in their grammar, speaking of many plants, animals and natural forces as living beings rather than objects.

    Sovereignty, understood through this relationship, is a kind of standing more than a form of control. Each nation belongs fully to its place and carries its share of that place’s life. No nation thrives alone, and none thrives by taking over the whole.

    The land is also the source of instruction. Over generations, people watched how a river valley or a stretch of prairie kept itself well: who arrived when, who fed whom, and how much could be taken before the giving stopped. In my grandmother’s telling, those observations became instructions, and those instructions helped shape law and protocol. They guided when to harvest, where to camp, how to enter a neighbour’s territory, and what was owed in return.

    Indigenous legal scholars today often describe this as law that comes from the land itself, learned by watching how living systems sustain one another. A plainer name for it is knowing how to live somewhere.

    The host and the guest

    One of the clearest teachings in this understanding of the world is the relationship between host and guest. My grandmother invited us to recognize that relationship in the lives of plants and animals.

    A host prepares the place before anyone arrives. A beaver family dams a stream, and the pond becomes a home for fish, frogs, birds and plants. A fallen tree becomes a nurse log, feeding the next generation of seedlings as it returns to the soil.

    A host offers first. A flowering plant sets out nectar. A berry bush ripens fruit. These provisions come in their own season, not whenever a visitor happens to want them.

    A host also makes its presence known. Birdsong, scent and the marks left along a trail tell newcomers that a place is already inhabited. The visitor does not arrive in an empty world.

    The guest has responsibilities too. A guest attends to the season and to what the place can offer. A guest does not assume that everything within reach is theirs to take. A guest leaves something that helps sustain the relationship.

    A bee takes nectar and carries pollen. Read through this teaching, that exchange offers an image of visiting well: receiving a gift while helping the host continue its life.

    Many Indigenous harvesting protocols carry the same ethic into daily practice: ask before taking, take only what is needed, offer thanks, and leave enough for others and for the plant or animal to recover.

    None of this suggests that every relationship in nature is peaceful or generous. These are ways of seeing responsibilities that people can learn to carry.

    Everyone is both

    No being is only a host or only a guest.

    A tree makes room for other life while depending on soil, water, sunlight, fungi, and relationships beyond itself. People, too, may welcome others into their homes while remaining dependent on the larger homeland that sustains them.

    The distinction between host and guest is therefore about roles, not ranks. Everyone receives. Everyone has something to give.

    The question is whether the exchange sustains the place.

    A visitor who takes without restraint leaves less for those who come next. A host who neglects the place has less to offer. Both have responsibilities, and neither can fulfil them alone.

    This is the heart of reciprocity, a principle found across Indigenous philosophies: relationships stay healthy when gifts move in both directions. The Haudenosaunee teaching of the seventh generation extends that exchange across time, asking that decisions made today leave the place well for those not yet born.

    Mutual benefit begins here, with the recognition that different beings carry different gifts and obligations.

    What people carry forward

    My grandmother’s teaching connects these relationships to the ways people meet their neighbours.

    The host prepares a place, offers food and rest, and explains where the visitor has arrived. The guest makes themselves known, explains why they have come, listens to the terms of the visit, and brings something in return. The gift may be material. It may also be labour, knowledge, news, or a commitment to help.

    Nations around the Great Lakes carried this ethic into treaty. The Dish with One Spoon, an agreement among the Haudenosaunee, Anishinaabe and allied Nations, describes shared hunting grounds as a single dish. Everyone eats from it with one spoon, takes only what they need, leaves enough for others, and keeps the dish clean. The Two Row Wampum, between the Haudenosaunee and European newcomers, shows two vessels travelling side by side on the same river, each keeping its own ways and neither steering the other.

    In this understanding, acknowledgement is more than naming the people associated with a territory. It is learning enough about a homeland to behave responsibly within it.

    Whose home is this? What sustains it? What laws and agreements guide our presence? What can we receive, and what must we return?

    These questions make acknowledgement a relationship rather than a recital.

    They also make it diplomatic. A guest who recognizes the host’s homeland recognizes that they have entered a place with its own relationships and responsibilities. A host who welcomes the guest makes room for an encounter governed by those relationships.

    Neither arrives without standing. Neither arrives without obligations.

    Beginning with place

    I write from the shores of the Bay of Quinte. Here, the teaching asks me to begin with the water, the shoreline, and the life they sustain. Before I describe myself, I must attend to where I am.

    That does not make people or history less important. It places them within the homeland that gives them meaning. The people, their laws, their agreements, and their responsibilities all belong to the place.

    In a time of longer fire seasons, troubled waters, and uncertainty about what the next season will bring, this teaching asks something difficult and useful of us: pay attention before you speak.

    An acknowledgement cannot tell the story of a place if the speaker has stopped noticing it.

    The land came first. Beginning there again means learning to name what sustains us, and accepting that what sustains us also asks something of us.

    By Rye Karonhiowanen Barberstock

    Photo by Andrik Langfield on Unsplash

    The post The Land Came First appeared first on Indigenous Climate Hub.

    The Land Came First

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    Analysis: Fossil-fuel CO2 emissions set to dip in 2026 as Iran conflict hits oil use

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    Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from fossil fuels and cement are projected to fall by around 0.4% in 2026 to 38.2bn tonnes of CO2 (GtCO2), according to new figures from the Global Carbon Project.

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    Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from fossil fuels and cement are projected to fall by around 0.4% in 2026 to 38.2bn tonnes of CO2 (GtCO2), according to new figures from the Global Carbon Project.

    The 21st edition of the annual “global carbon budget” report, published today, says that this small decline is largely due to a 1.9% drop in emissions from oil and the energy shock triggered by the Iran conflict and the closure of the strait of Hormuz.

    Emissions from coal continue to increase slightly.

    The Global Carbon Project’s projections for fossil fuel and cement CO2 emissions in 2026 are preliminary, with a range that spans a fall of -1.5% to a rise of +0.6%.

    This means a small increase in emissions can not be ruled out.

    Emissions from land-use change, such as deforestation, are projected to rise in 2026.

    This is primarily driven by peat fires and forest degradation in south-east Asia and is linked to the development of a strong El Niño event this year.

    As a result, total CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and land use are projected to reach a record high of 43.3GtCO2 in 2026 – marginally above 42.8GtCO2 in 2025.

    Research published alongside the report by the same team in Nature Climate Change finds that the growth in solar, wind and electric vehicles (EVs) now offsets around two-thirds of the emissions that would otherwise come from rising energy demand.

    However, the deployment of these technologies is not yet enough to push global emissions into a sustained decline, according to the study.

    The 2026 global carbon budget report also estimates that:

    • Fossil emissions are projected to fall in China (-0.9%), the US (-1.3%) and the EU (-1.5%) in 2026, but rise by 4.4% in India.
    • Oil emissions are projected to fall in every major region, with the largest drop in China (-4.6%).
    • Land-use emissions averaged 4.9GtCO2 per year over 2016-25, around 21% lower than the decade before.
    • Total CO2 emissions (fossil and land-use) grew by an average 0.3% per year over the past decade (2016-25), compared with 1.7% per year over the decade before.
    • The remaining carbon budget to limit warming to 1.5C is 150GtCO2, or less than four years of current emissions.
    • The land sink in 2025 was the highest on record, rebounding after being weakened during the 2023-24 El Niño. The current El Niño is expected to weaken the land sink in 2027.
    • The concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere is set to reach 427.7 parts per million (ppm) in 2026, 54% above pre-industrial levels.

    (For more on previous editions of the Global Carbon Project’s annual report, see Carbon Brief’s coverage in 2025, 2024, 2023 and 2022.)

    Total emissions edge up as land-use emissions rise

    Total global CO2 emissions, which combines fossil fuels and land-use change, are projected to reach a record high of 43.3GtCO2 in 2026, up from 42.8GtCO2 in 2025.

    The increase in 2026 comes entirely from a projected rise in land-use emissions, which are more challenging to estimate than fossil emissions.

    (The global carbon budget groups emissions from fossil fuels and cement production as “fossil emissions”. Carbon Brief follows this convention throughout this piece.)

    If land-use emissions had stayed at 2025 levels, total emissions would have fallen slightly in 2026 to around 42.6GtCO2.

    Each edition of the global carbon budget updates the historical record as new data and methods become available. The chart below shows total emissions in this year’s budget compared with the five previous editions.

    Chart showing that global CO2 emissions are on track to reach a record high in 2026.
    Shaded area shows the one-standard deviation uncertainty for the 2026 budget. 2026 values are projections.

    This year’s estimates of historical fossil emissions are around 0.3GtCO2 per year higher than in last year’s budget.

    This is largely because the report now estimates a smaller “cement carbonation” sink in the wake of research published this year in Communications Sustainability. In other words, it estimates that cement is able to slowly reabsorb less CO2 over its lifetime than previously thought.

    Estimates of land-use emissions have also been revised, including a spike in 2018 – visible in the chart above – linked to updated cropland data for Colombia.

    The updated numbers show that total emissions have grown by 0.3% per year over the past decade (2016-25), compared with 1.7% per year over 2006-15.

    Fossil emissions grew about 0.9% per year in the past decade, compared with 1.9% the decade before. Over the same period, land-use emissions have declined.

    While the slowdown reflects real progress, a plateau in emissions is still a long way from the rapid declines needed to reach net-zero emissions and stabilise global temperatures.

    With human-caused warming reaching 1.37C above pre-industrial levels (1850-1900) in 2025, the report estimates that the remaining carbon budget to limit warming to 1.5C, with a 50% chance, is 150GtCO2 from the start of 2027. That is less than four years of 2026 emissions.

    Meanwhile, the budgets for 1.7C and 2C are 510GtCO2 and 1,035GtCO2, respectively – or around 12 and 24 years of current emissions.

    Fossil emissions made up around 88% of total CO2 emissions over the past decade, with land-use change making up the remaining 12%.

    This is a