The first three months of 2026 have been the fourth warmest on record, with each successive month surpassing historical averages by a greater margin.
While weak La Niña conditions pushed down temperatures at the start of the year, scientists expect the development of a strong – and potentially “super” – El Niño event by early autumn.
El Niño and La Niña are the warm and cool phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a recurring climate pattern in the tropical Pacific that shapes global weather patterns.
Based on temperature datasets from five different research groups, Carbon Brief predicts that 2026 is likely to be the second-warmest year on record.
The year is virtually certain to be one of the four warmest on record and, currently, has a 19% chance of surpassing 2024 as the warmest year on record.
However, the development of a strong El Niño event later this year would substantially increase the chance that 2027 will be the warmest year on record.
In addition to near-record warmth, the start of 2026 has seen record-low sea ice cover in the Arctic, with the year tying with 2025 for the lowest winter peak in the satellite record.
Fourth-warmest start to the year
In this latest quarterly state of the climate assessment, Carbon Brief analyses records from five different research groups that report global surface temperature records: NASA, NOAA, Met Office Hadley Centre/UEA, Berkeley Earth and Copernicus/ECMWF.
The figure below shows the annual temperatures from each of these groups since 1970, along with the average over the first three months of 2026.

(It is worth noting that warming in the first three months may not be representative of the year as a whole, as temperatures relative to pre-industrial levels tend to be larger in the northern hemispheric winter months of December, January and February.)
Carbon Brief provides a best estimate of global temperatures by averaging the different records using a common 1981-2010 baseline period and then adding in the average warming since the pre-industrial period (1850-1900) across the datasets – NOAA, Hadley and Berkeley – that extend back to 1850. (This follows the approach taken by the World Meteorological Organization in its state of the climate reports.)
The figure below shows how global temperature so far in 2026 (black line) compares to each month in different years since 1940 (lines coloured by the decade in which they occurred).

The first three months of 2026 have been relatively warm, coming in in the top-five warmest on record across all the different scientific groups that report on global surface temperatures. This is despite the presence of weak La Niña conditions in the tropical Pacific at the start of the year, which typically suppress global temperatures.
January 2026 was the fourth- or fifth-warmest January on record across all the groups, February was the fourth- to sixth-warmest and March was between the second and fourth warmest.
| Dataset | January | February | March |
|---|---|---|---|
| HadCRUT5 | 5th | 6th | Yet To Report |
| NOAA | 5th | 5th | 2nd |
| GISTEMP | 5th | 4th | 4th |
| Berkeley Earth | 4th | 4th | 4th |
| Copernicus ERA5 | 5th | 5th | 4th |
Global temperature anomalies have been steadily increasing since their low point in January, as La Niña conditions have faded.
When combined, the first three months of the year in 2026 were the fourth-warmest in the historical record, below only 2024, 2025 and 2016.

A potential ‘super’ El Niño
There is reason to expect that global temperatures will continue to increase over the remainder of the year, as a strong – or even “super” – El Niño event is expected to develop later in the year.
Since the start of April, 13 different modelling groups have published estimates of future El Niño strength through at least September. These, in turn, contain 637 different model runs, as each model is run multiple times to better characterise the range of potential El Niño development.
There are a number of different ways to assess the strength of an El Niño or La Niña event.
The most common is the temperature anomaly in the “Niño3.4” region of the tropical Pacific. In addition, these temperatures have the human warming signal removed from changes over time in that part of the Pacific.
There are other approaches to assessing the strength of El Niño, including the newly released relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI), which may be more accurate. However, RONI data is not readily available from all models today.
The figure below shows a distribution of Niño3.4 temperature anomalies across all of the runs of all of the models (top panel), as well as the range of runs across each of the individual models (bottom panel). Sustained sea surface temperatures in excess of 0.5C indicate an El Niño event, temperatures above 1.5C represent a strong El Niño event and above 2C is often referred to as a “super” El Niño event.

The latest climate models give a central (median) estimate of 2.2C warming by September – a scenario which would put the world firmly in “super” El Niño territory.
Warming would likely strengthen after September, as El Niño conditions generally peak between November and January.
However, there is still a wide spread among models, with some, such as CanESM5 and DWD, only showing a weak-to-moderate El Niño.
Historically, it has been hard to accurately forecast the development of El Niño during early spring, so it will be a few more months before scientists can be confident that a strong or super El Niño will develop.
Exceptional regional warmth
There were many regions of the planet that saw exceptional warmth in the first quarter of 2026. This includes much of the western US, western China and eastern Russia.
The figure below shows the temperature anomaly in the ERA5 dataset, relative to a more recent 1981-2010 baseline period. (ERA5 does not provide gridded data back to the pre-industrial era.)

In addition to temperature anomalies, it is useful to look at where new records have been set. The figure below shows each grid cell that saw one of the top-five warmest first-quarter periods on record, as well as the top-five coolest.

During the first quarter of 2026, 5.2% of the globe saw record warm temperatures, while virtually no place on earth had record cool temperatures. In addition, 24.3% of the globe was in the top-five warmest on record, whereas only 0.1% was in the bottom-five coolest on record.
On track to be second-warmest year on record
Carbon Brief estimates that the global average temperature in 2026 will be between 1.37C and 1.58C, with a best estimate 1.47C. This puts 2026 on track to likely be the second warmest year on record, though it could potentially be as high as the warmest or as low as the fourth warmest.
This is based on the relationship between the first three months and the annual temperatures for every year since 1970. The estimate also accounts for El Niño and La Niña conditions seen in the first three months of 2026, as well as how El Niño conditions are projected to develop across the rest of the year.
The analysis includes a wide range of possible outcomes in 2026, given that temperatures from only the first quarter of the year are available so far.
The chart below shows the expected range of 2026 temperatures using the Carbon Brief average of groups – including a best-estimate (red) and year-to-date value (yellow). Temperatures are shown with respect to the pre-industrial baseline period (1850-1900).

Carbon Brief’s projection suggests that 2026 is virtually certain to be one of the top-four warmest years, with a best-estimate – a 62% chance – that it ends up between 2024 and 2023 as the second-warmest year on record.
However, there remains a 19% chance that 2026 will be the warmest year on record – beating the prior record set in 2024. There is also a 19% chance that it will end up as the third- or fourth-warmest year.
The chances of a record-breaking year depends on the strength of El Niño, as well as how rapidly global temperatures warm up as El Niño develops.
There is also a roughly 30% chance that 2026 will be the second year that exceeds 1.5C above pre-industrial levels.
While the development of a strong or “super” El Niño will give a boost to 2026 temperatures in the latter part of the year, its largest effects will likely be felt in 2027.
Historically, the year where El Niño develops has been warmer than usual, but the year that follows the phenomenon’s winter peak – for example, in 1998, 2016 and 2024 – is record-setting.
This is because there is an approximately three-month lag between the peak of El Niño conditions in the tropical Pacific and the maximum global surface temperature response. If a super El Niño develops this year, it is likely that 2027 will set a new record.
Record-low winter Arctic sea ice
Earlier this year, Arctic sea ice saw the joint-smallest winter peak in a satellite record going back almost half a century.
Sea ice extent peaked for 2026 at 14.29m square kilometres (km2) on 15 March, marking a “statistical tie” with a record low recorded the year before, according to the US National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC).
The figure below shows both Arctic and Antarctic sea ice extent in 2026 (solid red and blue lines), the historical range in the record between 1979 and 2010 (shaded areas) and the record lows (dotted black line).
(Unlike global temperature records, which only report monthly averages, sea ice data is collected and updated on a daily basis, allowing sea ice extent to be viewed up to the present.)

Arctic sea ice set new record daily low values during periods of January, March and early April. Antarctic sea ice did not set any new records so far in 2026, but remains on the low end of the historical (1979-2010) range.
The post State of the climate: Strong El Niño puts 2026 on track for second-warmest year appeared first on Carbon Brief.
State of the climate: Strong El Niño puts 2026 on track for second-warmest year
Climate Change
UN chief warns climate crisis “in overdrive” as El Niño threatens to fuel the fire
The United Nations Secretary-General and foreign ministers from the UK, France and Spain have blamed the deadly wildfires engulfing Europe on climate change, using the disaster to renew calls for faster cuts to greenhouse gas emissions.
António Guterres told journalists on Friday that the “climate crisis is in overdrive”, adding that global heat seen so far is just a “warm up act” as a phenomenon known as El Niño intensifies “adding fuel to a planet already on fire”.
A new World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) report published on Friday predicts that the weather pattern will grow into a “strong event” between now and October, increasing the risk of higher than normal temperatures across much of the world and disrupted rainfalls.
“That risks shattering every seasonal record – and driving even more severe effects worldwide,” Guterres said.
El Niño builds on top of an already warming world, driven primarily by the burning of fossil fuels. A WMO scientist, who did not want to be named, told journalists that all the heatwaves and other climate impacts seen so far this year are “before the effects of El Niño are really kicking in at a global scale”.
Fossil fuellling the fires
Fires have broken out across much of Europe but are threatening the most people in the south-west of France near Bordeaux and in Central Spain near Madrid. Nearly a quarter of a million people have been evacuated in France with hundreds of homes destroyed while in Spain 80,000 people have had to leave their homes and at least 13 died in one village.
A scientific study published on Friday by the World Weather Attribution group found that man-made climate change made deadly fires in France twice as likely and those in Spain twenty times more likely. Smaller fires in the UK were not analysed by the study.
UN Climate Change leader Simon Stiell blamed fossil fuels for the fires, as well as storms in Chile and heatwaves in North America and Japan in recent weeks. “The climate alarm is blaring”, he said on Wednesday.
Guterres criticised new fossil fuel production projects and fossil fuel subsidies for causing hardship across the world. Discussing his speech, a senior UN official – who did not want to be named – said the subsidies amounted to trillions of US dollars a year and criticised pension funds and institutional investors, including insurance companies, for continuing to invest in fossil fuel projects.

Asked why world leaders and the public are not prioritising climate action, Guterres said they are distracted by wars in Ukraine, the Middle East, Sudan and elsewhere and sometimes forget “other aspects that are a sometimes even more dangerous threat”.
Also the fossil fuel industry and “some countries” are campaigning to pretend that climate change does not exist, he said, adding that the UN should be more active in “naming the situations as they are and the responsibilties as they are and mobilising the public opinion”.
After meetings in Paris and Madrid earlier in the week, the UK’s new foreign minister Ed Miliband issued joint statements with his French and Spanish counterparts – Jean-Noël Barrot and José Manuel Albares Bueno – calling on the world to reduce its dependence on fossil fuels.
They promised to do more to reduce emissions and protect their people and encouraged other governments to do the same.
The UK-French statement called on governments to publish UN climate plans, known as nationally determined contributions (NDCs), which are aligned with the Paris Agreement’s goal to limit global average temperatures to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels.
According to Climate Action Tracker, only three countries – the UK, Nigeria and Norway – have submitted NDCs with 2035 emissions reduction targets which are compatible with 1.5C. Fifty-two countries – including Egypt, Vietnam and Argentina – have yet to submit an NDC at all.
Defending science
Beyond action on emissions, the ministers also intervened in an ongoing dispute over the timing of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC)’s next flagship assessment.
Miliband and Barrot’s statement said they “underline the importance” of scientific report feeding into governments’ next global stocktake of progress on climate action in two years’ time, calling it a “critical input” to that process.
The timing of this report has been a contentious issue in government negotiations at the IPCC and at June’s climate talks in Bonn. While a group of nations calling themselves the “friends of science” want the report before the stocktake, others like Saudi Arabia and India have argued that this would make the report of a worse quality and less inclusive of developing countries’ scientists.
Science ‘under attack’ from fossil fuel interests at UN climate talks
The UK-Spanish statement weighed in less explicitly on this issue but said that they “recall the importance of scientific evidence and acknowledge the work of the IPCC in this respect.”
The British and French ministers said they would seek to accelerate reductions of emissions in methane, a particularly potent greenhouse gas, at COP31 in November. They encouraged governments “to work jointly to develop a marketplace for fossil fuels with near-zero methane intensity.”
Methane leaks from oil, gas and coal production are a major contributor to global warming. Over a 20-year period, methane traps around 80 times more heat than carbon dioxide.

The UK and Spanish statement emphasised the importance of supporting the Global South and underlined the need to mobilise sustainable financing “at scale with the challenge we face”. The previous UK government, in which Miliband was energy minister, cut climate finance to developing countries to pay for increases in military spending.
The UK government led by new Prime Minister Andy Burnham has yet to outline any major changes to climate finance in its two weeks in power but has announced it will convert some finance from grants to loans in order to free up money to subsidise bus travel in England.
More adaptation needed
Guterres said that “it is time to stop treating each disaster as an isolated tragedy and recognise the systemic risk that is unfolding before our eyes.” A recent study found that three-quarters of UK media reports about the British June heatwave did not mention climate change.
As well as reducing emissions, the UN Secretary-General called for measures to adapt vulnerable people to extreme heat. Specifically, he said that buildings should be built and retrofitted for extreme heat and that every city and country should have heat-health action plans and early warning systems. Over 250 cities have joined the UN’s ‘beat the heat’ initiative, he said.
The Portuguese diplomat called for governments and employers to do more to protect their workers from heat, criticising global fashion brands for not setting heat standards for the factories that supply them. “No one should have to risk their life to earn a living,” he said.
The post UN chief warns climate crisis “in overdrive” as El Niño threatens to fuel the fire appeared first on Climate Home News.
UN chief warns climate crisis “in overdrive” as El Niño threatens to fuel the fire
Climate Change
‘Ride the wave of momentum’: Australia announces once-in-a-decade Marine Parks Network review
In response to the federal government announcing its once-in-a-decade review of Australia’s Marine Parks Network, the following lines can be attributed to Elle Lawless, Senior Campaigner at Greenpeace Australia Pacific:
“Greenpeace Australia Pacific welcomes today’s announcement that the Albanese Government will review Australia’s Commonwealth Marine Parks Network. This is a rare, once-in-a-decade opportunity to strengthen our marine parks and ban industrial fishing in Australia’s marine protected areas.
“Australians would be appalled to know that more than half of Australia’s Marine Parks Network currently allows for extractive industries, like longlining, bottom trawling and oil and gas mining. These so-called ‘protected’ areas were designed to safeguard our beloved ocean wildlife and underwater ecosystems – that is what Australians expect. Damaging industrial industries should not be given a free pass to trawl, fish, drill or extract from our marine parks.”
“With the first Ocean COP just around the corner, and off the back of Australia’s move to ratify the Global Ocean Treaty earlier this year, the Australian government has a unique opportunity to ride the wave of this momentum and solidify itself as a true global ocean leader.
“Greenpeace Australia Pacific is calling for industrial activities to be banned from our protected waters and for at least 30% of Australia’s ocean to be protected as ocean sanctuaries. This review presents a rare opportunity to create more ocean sanctuaries, true blue havens where ocean life can recover, thrive and repopulate the surrounding waters.”
—ENDS—
‘Ride the wave of momentum’: Australia announces once-in-a-decade Marine Parks Network review
Climate Change
Factcheck: No, Europe is not having its ‘quietest’ year for wildfires
In recent days, prominent climate sceptics and rightwing commentators have shared charts on social media incorrectly implying that Europe is having its “quietest” year for wildfires in 2026.
These include Dr Matthew Wielicki, a former University of Alabama geochemist and self-described “professor in exile”, who was recently appointed by the Trump administration to lead the US Global Change Research Program.
However, these charts paint a misleading picture as they are skewed by encompassing the entirety of Russia in the data – including the vast plains of Siberia.
These charts also use data that include fires that are deliberately lit to manage cropland, which is a declining practice across much of Europe.
In this factcheck, Carbon Brief shows that the area burned by wildfires across the European Union in 2026 is second only to 2022 for this time of year.
The latest data from the European Forest Fire Information System (EFFIS) also shows that France has set a new modern record for area burned and Spain’s wildfire season is among the worst on record.
The fires have displaced more than a third of a million people across south-western Europe, while an impending heatwave has also raised fears of the fires worsening in the coming days.
‘Quietest year’
On 27 July, as wildfires raged across multiple European countries, former Conservative peer and climate-sceptic commentator Matt Ridley posted on Twitter that “2026 is the quietest year for wildfires in Europe by some distance”.

Ridley, who sits on the academic advisory council of the Global Warming Policy Foundation (GWPF), a UK-based climate-sceptic lobby group that refuses to reveal the sources of its funding, was responding to an article by Daily Telegraph columnist Tim Stanley.
Stanley’s column, headlined: “Climate change is real – and the right needs to get serious about it”, warned:
“This is no longer a matter of speculation: the wildfires of Europe, pitiless and persistent, are the way we live now.”
Ridley included a chart from Our World In Data, showing the cumulative area burned by wildfires by week for Europe. The chart puts 2026 as having the smallest area for this time of year in a dataset going back to 2012.
Ridley’s post was widely shared by prominent rightwing figures – including Richard Tice, deputy leader of the hard-right, climate-sceptic Reform UK party, former Conservative cabinet minister Jacob Rees-Mogg and multiple commentators.
Separately, Wielicki also shared a chart on Twitter to imply that wildfires in Europe are declining. Wielicki has previously claimed that the “science is not settled on climate change”.
The charts posted by Ridley and Wielicki both use data from the Global Wildfire Information System (GWIS). The GWIS category for “Europe” encompasses all the countries on the continent and includes the whole of Russia.
As a result, Russia accounts for about 74% of the area included in the GWIS definition of “Europe”.
Wildfires in Russia typically account for 80-90% of the burned area in the GWIS Europe dataset. In 2026, fires in Russia are substantially below average. Therefore, including Russia in this comparison creates the false impression that wildfire activity across Europe is unusually low.
Dr Calum Cunningham, a research fellow at the University of Tasmania’s Fire Centre, says that such claims are “highly misleading”, noting that “they rely on aggregating fire activity across an enormous and climatically diverse region”. He tells Carbon Brief:
“A relatively quiet season in Russia can easily mask an exceptionally active season in France or Spain. If the analysis is focused on the regions actually experiencing the current fires, the picture is very different.
“The reality is that western Europe has experienced an extraordinary sequence of climate conditions this year.”
In contrast, the EFFIS provides a subset of wildfire data specifically for the area covered by the 27 nations of the EU, which, therefore, excludes Russia.
Another difference between the two datasets is that GWIS monitors all fires – including those on agricultural land that are intentionally set alight. The burned area as measured by GWIS contains significant cropland area.
By contrast, EFFIS uses land-cover data and other information to filter specifically for forest fires.
Looking at the EU-only data from EFFIS reveals that Europe is far from having its “quietest” year. The bloc’s burned area, as of 29 July, is almost 435,000 hectares (ha) – second only to 2022 for this time of year.

Notably, Wielicki has actually continued to post charts based on GWIS data, even after acknowledging that “includ[ing] all of Russia, including vast areas of Siberia…isn’t a good proxy for Europe”.
French fires
Even looking at EU-wide data misses the scale of this year’s wildfires for some individual countries.
The chart below shows the surge in burned area in France since mid-July.
For much of the first half of the year, the country was having a wildfire season that was only slightly above average in terms of total burned area. However, a notable uptick began in the first week of July.
The third week of the month saw France break its previous cumulative annual record by more than 19,000ha. That gap has widened as the fires continue to burn; as of 29 July, the cumulative burned area in France during 2026 was nearly 24,700ha above the previous record.

The fires in France follow a record-breaking June heatwave that “dried out vegetation across the region, allowing fires to spread quickly”, wrote the New York Times.
On 27 July, French president Emmanuel Macron called a “crisis cabinet meeting” in order to address the fires “ravaging several areas of south-west France”, said France 24.
More than 220,000 people have been evacuated due to the Gironde fire, west of Bordeaux, in “what may be France’s largest peacetime evacuation”, reported the Associated Press.
In the Conversation, Cunningham and two other University of Tasmania researchers write that evacuation orders “protec[t] human lives, but makes it more likely houses and other structures will burn if there’s no one to defend them”. They add:
“There is little doubt climate change has made France and Spain’s wildfires worse. They represent yet another reason to redouble our efforts to tackle climate change and stabilise our climate.”
Central Spain scorched
While Spain’s fire season has not broken records in the same way that France’s has, it is on track to be among the worst since EFFIS began reporting data in 2006.
The chart below shows the rapid increase in burned area in Spain since 8 July. The latest data from EFFIS reveal that, as of 29 July, Spain has almost matched its previous record at this point in the year. It is also nearly five times the average area burned for this time of year.

In Spain, the wildfires have been concentrated in the central part of the country, near Madrid.
BBC News reported that the fires outside the capital have burned “an area more than twice as large as the city itself”.
Nearly 90,000 people were forced from their homes in central Spain by the fires, said the Associated Press.
Pedro Sánchez, Spain’s prime minister, called the fires a “painful expression” of climate change.
Meanwhile, the UK, French and Spanish governments have issued joint statements this week in response to the fires. The UK/Spain statement begins:
“This summer’s wildfires demonstrated that climate change was now a national security emergency facing Europe and threatening our way of life.”
Related
The post Factcheck: No, Europe is not having its ‘quietest’ year for wildfires appeared first on Carbon Brief.
Factcheck: No, Europe is not having its ‘quietest’ year for wildfires
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