The year 2024 was the fourth warmest on record for the UK, behind only 2022, 2023 and 2014.
In this review, we look back at the UK’s climate in 2024 to highlight how the key events of the year fit into the wider picture of long-term human-caused climate change. We find:
- Eight months of the year were warmer than average.
- Spring was the warmest on record for the UK, which saw a record-high average temperature for May.
- February was the second warmest on record for the UK and December the fifth warmest.
- In contrast, the summer months of June, July and September were slightly cooler than average.
- On 28 January, a strong Foehn effect resulted in a temperature of 19.9C at Achfary, Sutherland, marking the highest temperature for January since records began.
- The year was relatively wet, with 7% more rainfall than average, making it the UK’s 17th wettest in a series going back to 1836.
- Oxfordshire, Wiltshire, Gloucestershire, Bedfordshire and Buckinghamshire saw their second-wettest year on record, driven by large rainfall totals in February and September.
- Storm Lilian in August marked the first time that storm names reached ‘L’ in the alphabetised list since storm naming was introduced in 2015.
- An attribution study found that rainfall in the winter season of 2023-24 was 20% more intense due to human-caused climate change. It also showed the amount of rainfall observed during the season was 10 times more likely.
(See our previous annual analysis for 2023, 2022, 2021, 2020, 2019 and 2018.)
The year in summary
The Met Office relies on the long-running HadUK-Grid dataset to place recent UK weather and climate into its historical context. The gridded, geographically complete dataset combines observational data for monthly temperature since 1884, rainfall since 1836 and sunshine since 1910.
Unless stated otherwise, the rankings of events and statements (such as “warmest on record”) in this article relate to the HadUK-Grid series.
The “climate anomaly” maps below show the difference between the average temperature (left), rainfall total (middle) and sunshine duration (right) between 2024 and the 1991-2020 period. In other words, they show how much warmer, cooler, wetter, drier, sunnier or cloudier the year was than average.
The maps show that the whole country was warmer than average, with slightly lower temperature anomalies in Scotland, and slightly higher anomalies seen in East Anglia.
Rainfall shows more regional variation, with the wettest regions relative to average in central and southern England, but a slightly drier year than average for Northern Ireland and parts of Scotland.
Meanwhile, it was a relatively dull year across the country with lower-than-average sunshine across the vast majority of the UK, particularly in western regions.
The UK annual average absolute temperature for 2024 was 9.78C, which is 0.64C above the 1991-2020 average.
This makes 2024 the fourth-warmest year since records began, coming only after 2022, when the average temperature was 10.03C; 2023, when the average temperature was 9.97C; and 2014, when temperatures averaged at 9.88C. Rounding off the top-five warmest years on record is 2006, when the average temperature was 9.70C.
The timeseries plot below shows how average temperature in the UK has followed a clear long-term warming trend since the 1960s.
Daily minimum and maximum temperatures have been recorded in the UK since the 19th century.
These observe the highest and lowest temperature reached during a 24-hour period which starts and ends at 9:00 GMT each day. The daily maximum temperature tends to be in the early afternoon and the minimum temperature in the hours before dawn, but not exclusively. In the winter season in particular, changes in weather patterns can result in larger swings in temperature.
In 2024, the annual average minimum temperature for the UK was the equal-warmest on record, matching the previous record set in 2023. The consequence of this has been some mild nights and far fewer frosts than normal, particularly in February and December. Meanwhile, the annual average daily maximum temperature was 8th warmest in the series.
Tracking the impact of climate change
For 2022 and 2023, attribution analysis conducted by Met Office scientists has shown that the temperatures experienced in both years were exceptional in more than 140 years of observational data, and would have been a 1-in-500 year event in a climate unaffected by humans.
However, in the context of the current climate, such average temperatures are not necessarily extreme – in fact, they now have a “return period” closer to one-in-three years.
The observed temperature for the UK in 2024 – despite being the fourth warmest on record – is not unusual when seen through the context of the warming climate. The UK has warmed by a rate that is comparable to the observed rise in the global average temperature.
The internationally-agreed observational reference period for climate averages is the period 1991-2020. Variability in the Earth’s climate means that cooler years can still occur, such as in 2010. However, it is notable that the UK has not had a year with below-average temperature since 2013.
The 2024 climate statistics continue a pattern of warming in the UK, which highlights how climate change is not a distant challenge for the future, but is happening now.
The year 2024 also fits into a general picture of a wetter climate for the UK overall. The timeseries plot below shows how rainfall in the UK has increased over recent decades.
However, the drivers of annual rainfall trends are more complex than for temperature, with annual totals masking regional and seasonal variations.
Climate projections for the UK show that winters are more likely to become wetter and summers are more likely to be drier through the 21st century.
One important driver of this change is that a warmer ocean and atmosphere can result in more water vapour in the atmosphere, which brings greater rainfall totals, or more intense rain, associated with weather systems.
However, the impact of a warming atmosphere alone is not sufficient to wholly account for the observed rainfall increase evident in the UK annual rainfall series. Other factors include decadal-scale natural variations in the climate, and the influence of climate change on large-scale circulation patterns across the northern hemisphere.
The rainfall amount of 2024 would have been considered a notably wet year if compared to much of the 19th and 20th centuries. However, last year was drier than a cluster of relatively wet years that have occurred since the late 1990s.
The timeseries below, which tracks annual sunshine in the UK over 1910-2024, highlights some of the vagaries of the UK’s climate.
The plot shows how 2024 was a relatively dull year for the UK, receiving the lowest hours of bright sunshine since 1998. However, this is against a backdrop of a longer-term trend of increasing sunshine in the UK, which has been especially notable since the 1980s. Sunshine amounts in winter and spring have seen the largest changes with 15-16% increases in the past decade, compared to the 1961-90 reference period.
These trends are driven by a combination of natural variability, changes in dominant circulation patterns, as well as possible human influence from increases and decreases in aerosol pollutants that influence cloud cover.
Regionally, exceptionally wet weather – particularly in February and September – resulted in parts of central and southern England having an extremely wet year overall.
Oxfordshire, Wiltshire, Gloucestershire, Bedfordshire and Buckinghamshire all saw their second-wettest year, while Dorset, Cheshire and Berkshire had their third wettest and Hertfordshire and Shropshire their fifth wettest.
The year was in the top-10 wettest for a further 10 counties and in the upper third for a majority of regions. However, parts of east Scotland and Northern Ireland had slightly below-average rainfall for the year.
Map showing the ranking by county of annual rainfall in 2024. The counties shaded darkest blue had one of their top five wettest years in a series from 1836. No counties had their overall wettest year. Credit: Met Office
Weather through the year
Temperature
The chart below shows average UK temperature through the year, with orange highlighting periods that were warmer than average and blue showing cooler than average.
There were numerous spells of warm conditions (relative to the time of year), particularly in January, February, May and December. Overall, 60% of the year (220 days) was warmer than average and 40% (146 days) was cooler. A total of 13% (49 days) was above the 95th percentile (that is, in the top 5% warmest for the time of year). Cold snaps were not common and relatively short-lived, with only 3% (12 days) below the 5th percentile (that is, in the top 5% of coldest days for the time of year).
The highest maximum temperature of the year was 34.8C, recorded in Cambridge on 12 August during a relatively short hot spell in an otherwise unremarkable summer. The lowest minimum temperature of the year was -14.0C, recorded at Dalwhinnie in the Scottish Highlands on 17 January.
Extremes in temperature have increased at a much faster rate than the average, and the annual maximum temperature in 2024 – which would have once been an occasional event – is now much more common.
There were only nine years in the 20th century where the maximum temperature of the year in the climate archive exceeds the 2024 value (34.8C), but there are already eight years in the 21st century that have done so. Six of those have been in the last 10 years.
Rainfall
The two plots below show the accumulation of rain day-by-day through the course of the year, averaged across Scotland and for England and Wales combined.
The blue-shaded regions highlight periods when total rainfall was above average for the time of year and the orange-shaded regions times when it was below. For example, the first chart shows that Scotland had reached around 500mm by early April, which is close to average for that point in the year. (This equates roughly to a volume of water that could fill Loch Ness five times over).
In Scotland, total rainfall was close to average for much of the year. August was notably wet – the third wettest on record for western Scotland region – but this was offset by a dry autumn. A wet December, particularly for northern Scotland, brought the overall rainfall accumulation for 2024 close to average.
In contrast, rainfall in England remained well-above average for most of the year, leading to the year being the 8th wettest on record for the nation.
England saw its fourth-wettest February, followed by a wet March. In southern England, February saw well over 200% of average rainfall, dipping slightly to nearly 180% in March. Accumulated rainfall was further boosted by exceptional rain in September, which saw some regions recording more than 300% of average rainfall.
Storms
The Met Office has been naming storms – in collaboration with the Irish weather service, Met Eireann – since 2015. The Dutch weather service, KNMI, joined the initiative in 2019.
The 2023-24 storm season had a very active start with seven named storms occurring from September to December 2023. This continued into early 2024 with Henk, Isha and Jocelyn occurring in January.
The winter half-year from October 2023 to March 2024 was the wettest on record for both England and Wales, including in the long-running England and Wales Precipitation series (EWP), which dates back to 1766.
An attribution study – bringing together scientists from the UK, Ireland, Netherlands, Sweden and Germany – looked into the impact of climate change on the autumn-winter storm season, which ran from October 2023 to March 2024. It found that the average rainfall on stormy days has increased by about 20% due to human-caused climate change. This echoes wider studies and climate projections that suggest UK winters are likely to become wetter due to climate change.
An analysis of the intensity of storms based on wind speed in the study found that a stormy season was slightly less likely because of climate change. However, other studies, using other methods, have suggested an increase in storminess is likely in a future climate. The diverging findings highlight how uncertainty remains about the response of storm systems affecting the UK in a changing climate, and underscores the need for ongoing research on this topic.
Two red warnings for wind were issued in 2024. These were for storm Isha in January, which affected north-east Scotland and storm Darragh in December, which affected west Wales. The two wind storms were the UK’s most powerful since storm Eunice in February 2022.
| Storm name | Date/s of impact in UK | Maximum wind gust | Number of observing sites recording wind gusts over 50 knots |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-2024 names | |||
| Henk | 2 January | 82 knots (94 mph), Needles, Isle of Wight | 37 |
| Isha | 21-22 January | 86 knots (99 mph), Brizlee Wood, Northumberland | 92 |
| Jocelyn | 23-24 January | 84 knots (97 mph) Capel Curig, Gwynedd | 50 |
| Kathleen | 6-7 April | 66 knots (76 mph), Loch Glascarnoch, Ross&Cromarty | 30 |
| Lilian | 22-23 August | 64 knots (74 mph), Capel Curig, Gwynedd | 16 |
| 2024-2025 names |
|||
| Ashley | 20-21 October | 71 knots (82 mph) Aberdaron, Gwynedd | 46 |
| Bert | 22-25 November | 71 knots (82 mph) Capel Curig, Gwynedd | 32 |
| Conall | 27 November | 51 knots (59 mph) Needles, Isle of Wight | 1 |
| Darragh | 6-7 December | 83 knots (96 mph) Berry Head, Devon | 58 |
Overall, the average wind speed in 2024 was close to, but slightly below, the 1991-2020 average, while being the highest since 2020. This aligns with a long-term decline in the average wind speed for the UK since 1969, shown in the chart below.
This long-term trend should be interpreted with some caution as it is possible that non-climatic factors – such as changes in instrumentation and exposure of the observing network through time – influences these trends. However, the decline is consistent with a widespread global slowdown termed “global stilling”.
More recently, global and UK data have shown that, since 2010, the decline in the average wind speed has stopped or even reversed.
Winter
The climatological UK winter spans the calendar months of December, January and February. Winter 2023-24 was mild and the fifth warmest on record for the UK. For England and Wales combined it was the second warmest on record.
The year commenced with some significant flooding impacts from storm Henk, which brought damaging winds and heavy rain to central and southern England and Wales on 2 January. The rain fell on already saturated ground, leading to flood warnings. High pressure became more established from mid-January, bringing a spell of cooler and drier conditions. The month concluded with storms Isha and Jocelyn in quick succession.
On 28 January, exceptionally high temperatures for the time of year were recorded in parts of north-west Scotland, reaching 19.9C at Achfary and 19.6C at Kinlochewe, surpassing both stations’ previous record of 18.3C by a large margin. There was a marked contrast between cooler and more moist conditions on the windward side of the highlands, and warmer, drier conditions on the leeward side.
This is the classic consequence of the Foehn effect, which can result in remarkably unseasonable temperatures locally due to the air losing moisture as it passes up and over the higher ground, resulting in warmer drier conditions when it descends.
Map showing temperature anomaly for 28 January 2024, relative to 1991-2020. Credit: Met Office.
The Foehn effect was the primary driver of January’s exceptional temperatures. However, it is worth acknowledging that global warming has led to high temperature records across all seasons in recent years. New maximum temperature records were set for January in 2024, February in 2019, July in 2022, October in 2011, November in 2015 and December in 2019.
In other words, new temperature records have been set for six of the 12 months of the year since 2011. Conversely, no months have set new lowest minimum records.
It was the warmest February on record for both England and Wales, and the second warmest for the UK overall. The years 2019, 2022, 2023 and 2024 also had warm Februaries which ranked in the top 10 warmest on record.
Meanwhile, the south of England has its wettest February on record, and England its fourth wettest. This resulted in widespread disruption, particularly to transport, due to flooding and landslips.
Overall, it was the eighth-wettest winter for the UK, continuing a trend of wetter winters consistent with climate projections that indicate that human-caused climate change will drive a shift to wetter winters.
Spring
The year 2024 saw the warmest May, and spring, on record for the UK.
It was also the sixth wettest spring on record, after a succession of low-pressure systems brought rain to much of the country, with the exception of north-west Scotland, which was drier than average.
The preponderance of wet weather contributed to considerable surprise – and in some cases disbelief – of the extent to which May broke its all-time temperature record. The possible disconnect between the recorded temperatures and perception of the conditions was also due to extreme daily minimum temperatures occurring overnight. An exceptionally warm month in spring does not necessarily mean a month of fine and dry weather.
A Met Office analysis of the May 2024 event demonstrated that a significant contributing factor to the high temperatures was from a marine heatwave affecting the waters around the UK for the whole of May and early June. Although the UK was under cloudy skies for much of May, clearer skies coupled with weak winds and wave conditions over the North Sea contributed to very high sea temperatures.
In addition to the contribution from the marine heatwave, a Met Office attribution analysis also found that human-induced climate change made the May average temperature between six and 14 times more likely than it would have been in a pre-industrial climate. The chart below shows how the likelihood of temperatures at or exceeding May 2024 are lower in a natural – or pre-industrial – climate compared to one impacted by human activities.
Chart showing the distribution of UK May mean temperature for simulations with human and natural forcings (ALL, in orange) and equivalent but with natural only forcings (NAT, blue). Credit: Met Office
Summer
The summer was arguably rather disappointing for many, with warm spells generally being short-lived and the season being cooler than average overall, and the coolest summer since 2015.
Although July was wetter than average for parts of the country, both June and August were relatively dry for most. Western Scotland and parts of north-west England were the exception and were notably wet in August, with some areas receiving more than 200% of average rainfall for the month. It was the third-wettest August on record for western Scotland.
A short hot spell across central and southern England on 11-12 August saw the highest temperature of the year, of 34.8C in Cambridge. This was followed – as is often the case in the breakdown of summer heat events – with an outbreak of thunderstorms. These particularly affected northern and western parts of the UK.
Storm Lilian in late August resulted in high winds and rain with significant disruption to road, rail and power supply across northern England. Storm Lilian means that the 2023-24 season has had the most named storms since the naming system was launched 10 years ago.
The storm naming system is designed for raising awareness of the potential of risk to life and property from extreme storms. The decision to name considers both the severity of the storm and also its likelihood to cause impacts. For example, a storm system passing over heavily populated regions coinciding with rush hour in the summer months when trees are in full leaf can carry higher risks than a storm of the same wind severity passing through overnight in winter.
Storm naming criteria and the partners involved have evolved over time. For these reasons the number of named storms over time cannot itself be used as an indicator of change.
Autumn and December
Autumn continued the rainy theme. A succession of low-pressure systems throughout September resulted in some exceptional rainfall for southern and central England, with more than 300% of average rainfall observed across a wide region.
It was the seventh-wettest September for England and the wettest September on record for 10 counties in central and southern England. For Bedfordshire and Oxfordshire, September was the wettest calendar month the counties have experienced in a series dating back to 1836. Meanwhile, the Oxford Radcliffe meteorological station recorded its wettest month since September 1774.
Map showing the percentage of average rainfall that fell in September 2024. The purple regions highlight those areas that had in excess of 300% of average. White areas were close to average and brown regions drier than average. Credit: Met Office
The remainder of autumn saw the first named storms for the 2024-25 season: Ashley in October and Bert and Conall in November. Storm Bert brought heavy rain and snow.
The day of 21 November saw the most significant November snow event since 2010, with lying snow as far south as Devon and Cornwall. This was one of the coldest spells of weather in the year, although lower temperatures were recorded during the January cold snap earlier that year. The spell was short-lived and conditions were much milder again throughout December. It was the fifth-warmest December in a series dating back to 1884.
December was also notable for a red weather warning issued for storm Darragh for west Wales and the Bristol Channel, with extreme wind gusts along exposed coastal and upland areas. Some of the strongest winds were from an unusual northerly direction, likely influencing the number of fallen trees. A number of fatalities were reported and more than 2 million people were left without power during the storm.
The weather of the UK within any single year is diverse and at times surprising, and 2024 was no different. Where records have been broken, they have been for exceptionally high temperatures and high rainfall totals. This is another reminder that climate change is already having an impact on the UK’s weather, shifting the probabilities to make high temperature extremes and records increasingly likely to be broken and re-broken.
The drivers of rainfall records are more complex, but climate projections have consistently pointed to a general pattern of wetter winters, drier summers and more intense rainfall when it occurs. It is therefore vital to continue to monitor the indicators of change both globally and in the UK, in order to better understand what changes can be expected in the future, and how to respond to climate-related risks.
The post Met Office: A review of the UK’s climate in 2024 appeared first on Carbon Brief.
The European Commission has rejected requests by green groups to review the status of 16 controversial projects it has designated as “strategic” to shore up the bloc’s supply of critical minerals needed for the energy transition, despite environmental concerns.
Campaigners accused the European Union’s executive arm of being more interested in labelling projects as “strategic” to accelerate their development than ensuring they meet its environmental standards.
Legal experts told Climate Home News that despite the EU’s rhetoric on developing sustainable mining standards, it will be very difficult for local communities and NGOs to use the judicial system to enforce compliance with environmental safeguards.
Earlier this year, the European Commission labelled 47 mineral extraction, processing and recycling projects within EU member states as “strategic“, granting them preferential treatment for gaining permits and easier access to EU funding.
-
Europe’s lithium rush leaves mineral-rich communities in the dark
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COP30 draft text includes energy transition minerals in UN climate first
A draft negotiating text on defining principles for a just transition to clean energy systems recognises the social and environmental risks associated with mining critical minerals
Spanning from the north of Sweden to Portugal and southern Spain, these projects are due to help the EU reach targets for sourcing more of the minerals it needs for clean energy and digital technologies within its own borders in an environmentally friendly way, while reducing its dependence on imports from China.
However, NGOs and local communities have accused the European Commission of a lack of transparency and of failing to engage civil society over the selection of these projects, most of which are in the early stages of development and are yet to obtain the necessary permits or conduct detailed environmental impact assessments.
Civil society groups challenged the decision to include around a third of projects on the strategic list, arguing that the commission had not properly assessed their sustainability. They also cited risks of social and environmental harm and human rights violations.
EU: Environmental compliance lies with member states
In total, 11 requests for review covering 16 of the projects planned within the EU were filed under the Aarhus Regulation, which gives NGOs the right to ask the European Commission to review administrative decisions if they are considered to violate the bloc’s environmental law.
In a single response shared with green groups this week, and seen by Climate Home News, the commission found that the requests to review the projects’ status were “unfounded”.
“A thorough assessment confirmed that all points raised by the NGOs had already been properly addressed during the selection process. All the projects concerned therefore retain their status as strategic projects,” a European Commission spokesperson told Climate Home News. They did not respond to detailed questions about their assessment.
Under the EU’s Critical Raw Materials Act, which was adopted last year, the commission can designate mineral projects as strategic if they meet a shortlist of criteria, including that the project “would be implemented sustainably” and monitor, prevent and minimise environmental and adverse social impacts.
The strategic status can be revoked if projects no longer meet the criteria.
However, the commission said it was not its job to carry out a full and detailed assessment of whether the projects fully comply with EU environmental laws, adding that it is only required to make an “overall assessment”.
Rather, it argued, member states have the responsibility to ensure the projects fully comply with EU environmental standards including impacts on biodiversity and ground water as well as waste management.
The commission also refused to examine the social impacts of the projects on community livelihoods, health and human rights – which could arise from environmental degradation – arguing that this was outside the scope of the review mechanism under the Aarhus Regulation.
Campaigners have strongly criticised the response.
“Cosmetic”sustainability criteria
Ilze Tralmaka, a lawyer at Client Earth, told Climate Home News the commission’s decision showed that the designation of mineral projects as “strategic” doesn’t make them safe or sustainable, despite creating a legal presumption that they serve the public interest and protect public health and safety.
“While on paper, there is mention of sustainability, in practice, it’s almost cosmetic,” she said. “It seems the environmental standards are just briefly looked at and that the policy of declaring these projects as strategic is more important than real engagement with the sustainability criteria.”
Client Earth argues that while securing supplies of minerals for the energy transition is a legitimate goal, the status of strategic project is being “misused” to fast-track questionable mining projects.
Tralmaka said the European Commission should engage where there are “unanswered questions, or if there is credible information about these projects being potentially unsafe”.
Client Earth was part of a group of NGOs that challenged the decision to designate the Barroso lithium project in Portugal as a strategic project.
“Textbook example of how not to do a green transition”
London-listed Savannah Resources is planning to dig four open pit mines in the northern Barroso region to extract lithium from Europe’s largest known deposit. The company says it will extract enough lithium every year to produce around half a million batteries for electric vehicles.
However, local groups have staunchly opposed the mining project, citing concerns over waste management and water use as well as the impact of the mine on traditional agriculture in the area.
Earlier this year, a UN committee found that Portugal had failed to respect citizens’ rights to information and public participation in the case of the Barroso project. Portuguese authorities denied the breach.
Efforts to green lithium extraction face scrutiny over water use
The commission said it was satisfied with the project’s overall sustainability credentials and that campaign groups should take a case to their national court if they are concerned about the legality of any project.
“This decision shows that the EU is willing to trade rural lives and irreplaceable landscapes for a political headline,” said Nik Völker of MiningWatch Portugal. “The truth is, the Mina do Barroso mine offers minimal benefits and enormous risks: a textbook example of how not to do a green transition.”
Savannah Resources did not respond to a request for comment.
“Murky” standards make legal challenge hard
Simon Simanovski, a business and human rights attorney with German law firm Günther Rechtsanwälte, has advised dozens of communities affected by projects designated as “strategic” under the EU’s Critical Raw Materials Act over the past year.
For him, the commission’s response creates a disconnect between its role as a decision-making body and the responsibility for enforcing the bloc’s environmental laws, by pushing it to member states. That, he said, creates “murky standards”.
This, he added, will make it “really difficult” to challenge inadequate environmental safeguards through the courts. “It means that there is no effective judicial protection… and that the projects will happen,” he told Climate Home News.
However, Simanovski still expects some campaign groups to try filing a case before the general court of the European Court of Justice to challenge the European Commission’s response and ask it to review its assessment of the projects.
Simanovski represents communities in Serbia that are also challenging the “strategic” designation of the Jadar lithium mine – one of an additional 13 “strategic projects” located outside EU countries – which has seen massive local opposition.
The commission is expected to respond to requests to review those external strategic projects in January.
The post EU refuses to review “strategic” mineral projects for energy transition appeared first on Climate Home News.
EU refuses to review “strategic” mineral projects for energy transition
Climate Change
DeBriefed 28 November 2025: COP30’s ‘frustrating’ end; Asia floods; UK ‘emergency’ climate event
Welcome to Carbon Brief’s DeBriefed.
An essential guide to the week’s key developments relating to climate change.
This week
‘Lukewarm’ end to COP30
BYE BELÉM: The COP30 climate talks in Belém ended last weekend with countries agreeing on a goal to “triple” adaptation finance by 2035 and efforts to “strengthen” climate plans, Climate Home News reported. The final deal “fell short on the global transition away from oil, gas and coal”, the outlet said, as Brazil announced that it would bring forward voluntary roadmaps to phase out fossil fuels and deforestation, before the next COP. It was a “frustrating end” for more than 80 countries who wanted a roadmap away from fossil fuels to be part of the formal COP agreement, BBC News said.
WHAT HAPPENED?: Carbon Brief published its in-depth analysis of all the key outcomes from COP30, spanning everything from negotiations on adaptation, just transition, gender and “Article 6” carbon trading through to a round-up of pledges on various issues. Another Carbon Brief article summed up outcomes around food, forests, land and nature. Also, Carbon Brief journalists discussed the COP in a webinar held earlier this week.
ART OF THE DEAL: The “compromise” COP30 deal – known as the “global mutirão” – “exposed deep rifts over how future climate action should be pursued”, Reuters noted. The “last-ditch” agreement was reached after fossil-fuel wording negotiations between the EU and Saudi Arabia, according to the Guardian. Meanwhile, Carbon Brief revealed the “informal” list of 84 countries said to have “opposed” the inclusion of a fossil-fuel roadmap in the mutirão decision, but analysis of the list exposed contradictions and likely errors.
UNITY, SCIENCE, SENSE: The final agreement received “lukewarm praise”, said the Associated Press. Palau ambassador Ilana Seid, who chaired the coalition of small-island nations, told the newswire: “Given the circumstances of geopolitics today, we’re actually quite pleased…The alternative is that we don’t get a decision and that would have been [worse].” UN climate chief Simon Stiell said that amid “denial, division and geopolitics”, countries “chose unity, science and economic common sense”, reported the Press Trust of India.
Around the world
- Floods and landslides killed more than 200 people in Thailand and Indonesia this week, reported Bloomberg. At least 90 people also died in recent floods in Vietnam, said Al Jazeera.
- New measures to cut energy bills and a “pay-per-mile” electric-vehicle levy were among the announcements in the UK’s budget, said Carbon Brief.
- The Group of 20 (G20) leaders signed off on a declaration “addressing the climate crisis” and other issues, reported Reuters, which had no input from the US who boycotted last week’s G20 summit in South Africa.
- Canadian prime minister Mark Carney signed a deal with the province of Alberta “centred on plans for a new heavy oil pipeline”, said the Guardian, adding that Canadian culture minister and former environment minister, Steven Guilbeault, resigned from cabinet over the deal.
- Greenpeace analysis, covered by Reuters, found that permits for new coal plants in China are “on track to fall to a four-year low” in 2025.
27
The number of hours that COP30 talks went over schedule before ending in Belém last Saturday, making it the 11th-longest UN climate summit on record, according to analysis by Carbon Brief.
Latest climate research
- The risk of night-time deaths during heatwaves increased “significantly” over 2005-15 in sub-Saharan Africa | Science Advances
- Almost half of climate journalists surveyed showed “moderate to severe” symptoms of anxiety | Traumatology
- Lakes experienced “more severe” heatwaves than those in the atmosphere over the past two decades | Communications Earth & Environment
(For more, see Carbon Brief’s in-depth daily summaries of the top climate news stories on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.)
Captured
The key COP30 agreement – termed the “global mutirão” – contained 69 inactive verbs, which require no action from countries, compared to 32 active ones. “Recognises”, “recalls” and “acknowledges” were used far more often than more active verbs, such as “decides”, “calls” and “requests”, showed Carbon Brief analysis.
Spotlight
Nine warnings from a UK climate and nature ‘emergency’ briefing
This week, Carbon Brief’s Orla Dwyer reports from an event where experts and campaigners sounded the alarm bell on climate change and nature loss.
Naturalist and broadcaster Chris Packham urged attendees at a climate and nature “emergency briefing” in London yesterday to “listen to the science” on climate change amid a “dangerous wave of misinformation and lies”.
The “first-of-its-kind” event heard from nine experts on the links between climate change, nature loss, health, food production, economics and national security.
Event host, Prof Mike Berners-Lee from Lancaster University, called for a “World War II level of leadership” to tackle the interconnected crises.
Hundreds of people showed up, including Green Party, Labour and Liberal Democrat MPs, leader of the Greens Zack Polanski, musician Brian Eno and actress Olivia Williams.
Here is a snapshot of what the nine speakers said in their short, but stark, presentations.
Prof Kevin Anderson, professor of energy at University of Manchester
Anderson focused on the risks of a warmer world and the sliver of emissions left in the global carbon budget, noting:
“We have to eliminate fossil fuels or temperatures will just keep going up.”
He urged a “Marshall-style” plan – referencing the 1948 post-war US plan to rebuild Europe – to ramp up actions on retrofitting, public transport and electrification.
Prof Nathalie Seddon, professor of biodiversity at University of Oxford
Nature is not a “nice to have”, but rather “critical national infrastructure”, Seddon told attendees. She called for the “need to create an economy that values nature”.
Prof Paul Behrens, British Academy global professor at University of Oxford
Behrens discussed the food security risks from climate change. Impacts such as poor harvests and food price inflation are “barely acknowledge[d]” in agricultural policy, he said.
He also emphasised the “unsustainable” land use of animal agriculture, which “occupies around 85% of total agricultural land” in the UK.
Prof Tim Lenton, chair in climate change and Earth system science at Exeter University
Lenton outlined the “plenty” of evidence that parts of the Earth system are hurtling towards climate tipping points that could push them irreversibly into a new state.
He discussed the possibility of the shutdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, which he said could cause -20C winters in London. He also noted positive tipping points, such as momentum that led the UK to stop burning coal for electricity last year.
Prof Hayley Fowler, professor of climate change impacts at Newcastle University
One in four properties in England could be at risk of flooding by 2050, Fowler said, and winters are getting wetter.
She discussed extreme weather risks and listed the impacts of floods in recent years in Germany, Spain and Libya, adding:
“These events are not warnings of what might happen in the future. They’re actually examples of what is happening right now.”
Angela Francis, director of policy solutions at WWF-UK
Francis factchecked several claims made against climate action, such as the high cost of achieving net-zero.
She noted that the estimated cost for the UK to achieve net-zero is about £4bn per year, which is less than 0.2% of GDP.
Lieutenant general Richard Nugee, climate and security advisor
Discussing the risks climate change poses to national security, Nugee said:
“Climate change can be thought of as a threat multiplier, making existing threats worse or more frequent and introducing new threats. Climate shocks fuel global instability.”
Tessa Khan, environmental lawyer and executive director of Uplift
Khan said the rising cost of energy in the UK is “turning into a significant political risk for the energy transition”.
She discussed the cost of fossil-fuel dependency and the fact that these fuels cost money to burn, but renewable “input[s], sun or wind [are] free forever”.
Prof Hugh Montgomery, professor of intensive care medicine at University College London
Montgomery discussed the health and economic benefits of climate actions, such as eating less meat and using more public transport, noting:
“The climate emergency is a health emergency – and it’s about time we started treating it as one.”
Watch, read, listen
WATER WORRIES: ABC News spoke to three Iranian women about the impacts of Tehran’s water crisis amid the “worst drought in 60 years”.
CLIMATE EFFORT: The BBC’s Climate Question podcast looked at the main outcomes from COP30 and discussed the “future of climate action” with a team of panelists.
CRIMINAL BEHAVIOUR:New Scientist interviewed criminal psychologist Julia Shaw about the psychology behind environmental crimes.
Coming up
- 24 November-5 December: COP20 on international trade in endangered species of wild fauna and flora, Samarkand, Uzbekistan
- 29-30 November: First part of global youth environment assembly, Nairobi, Kenya
- 3-4 December: Second round of Egyptian parliamentary elections
- 5 December: World soil day, global
Pick of the jobs
- Aldersgate Group, head of policy | Salary: £56,650-£66,950 per year. Location: London
- Ofgem, climate resilience expert | Salary: £61,446-£86,547. Location: Cardiff, Glasgow or London
- Green Climate Fund, integrity risk management lead | Salary: $171,200. Location: Incheon, South Korea
- Isles of Scilly Wildlife Trust, project manager – seabird recovery | Salary: Up to £45,000 per year. Location: Isles of Scilly, UK
DeBriefed is edited by Daisy Dunne. Please send any tips or feedback to debriefed@carbonbrief.org.
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The post DeBriefed 28 November 2025: COP30’s ‘frustrating’ end; Asia floods; UK ‘emergency’ climate event appeared first on Carbon Brief.
DeBriefed 28 November 2025: COP30’s ‘frustrating’ end; Asia floods; UK ‘emergency’ climate event
Climate Change
Revealed: Leak casts doubt on COP30’s ‘informal list’ of fossil-fuel roadmap opponents
A confused – and, at times, contradictory – story has emerged about precisely which countries and negotiating blocs were opposed to a much-discussed “roadmap” deal at COP30 on “transitioning away from fossil fuels”.
Carbon Brief has obtained a leaked copy of the 84-strong “informal list” of countries that, as a group, were characterised across multiple media reports as “blocking” the roadmap’s inclusion in the final “mutirão” deal across the second week of negotiations at the UN climate summit in Belém.
During the fraught closing hours of the summit, Carbon Brief understands that the Brazilian presidency told negotiators in a closed meeting that there was no prospect of reaching consensus on the roadmap’s inclusion, because there were “80 for and 80 against”.
However, Carbon Brief’s analysis of the list – which was drawn up informally by the presidency – shows that it contains a variety of contradictions and likely errors.
Among the issues identified by Carbon Brief is the fact that 14 countries are listed as both supporting and opposing the idea of including a fossil-fuel roadmap in the COP30 outcome.
In addition, the list of those said to have opposed a roadmap includes all 42 of the members of a negotiating group present in Belém – the least-developed countries (LDCs) – that has explicitly told Carbon Brief it did not oppose the idea.
Moreover, one particularly notable entry on the list, Turkey – which is co-president of COP31 – tells Carbon Brief that its inclusion is “wrong”.
Negotiating blocs
COP28, held in Dubai in 2023, had finalised the first “global stocktake”, which called on all countries to contribute to global efforts, including a “transition away from fossil fuels”.
Since then, negotiations on how to take this forward have faltered, including at COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan, where countries were unable to agree to include this fossil-fuel transition as part of existing or new processes under the UN climate regime.
Ahead of the start of COP30, Brazilian president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva made a surprise call for “roadmaps” on fossil-fuel transition and deforestation.
While this idea was not on the official agenda for COP30, it had been under development for months ahead of the summit – and it became a key point of discussion in Belém.
Ultimately, however, it did not become part of the formal COP30 outcome, with the Brazilian presidency instead launching a process to draw up roadmaps under its own initiative.
This is because the COP makes decisions by consensus. The COP30 presidency insisted that there was no prospect of consensus being reached on a fossil-fuel roadmap, telling closed-door negotiations that there were “80 for and 80 against”.
The list of countries supporting a roadmap as part of the COP30 outcome was obtained by Carbon Brief during the talks. Until now, however, the list of those opposed to the idea had not been revealed.
Carbon Brief understands that this second list was drawn up informally by the Brazilian presidency after a meeting attended by representatives of around 50 nations. It was then filled out to the final total of 84 countries, based on membership of negotiating alliances.
The bulk of the list of countries opposing a roadmap – some 39 nations – is made up of two negotiating blocs that opposed the proposal for divergent reasons (see below). Some countries within these blocs also held different positions on why – or even whether – they opposed the roadmap being included in the COP30 deal.
These blocs are the 22-strong Arab group – chaired in Belém by Saudi Arabia – and the 25 members of the “like-minded developing countries” (LMDCs), chaired by India.
For decades within the UN climate negotiations, countries have sat within at least one negotiating bloc rather than act in isolation. At COP30, the UN says there were 16 “active groups”. (Since its invasion of Ukraine, Russia has not sat within any group.)
The inclusion on the “informal list” (shown in full below) of both the LMDCs and Arab group is accurate, as confirmed by the reporting of the International Institute for Sustainable Development’s Earth Negotiations Bulletin (ENB), which is the only organisation authorised to summarise what has happened in UN negotiations that are otherwise closed to the media.
Throughout the fortnight of the talks, both the LMDCs and Arab group were consistent – at times together – in their resistance to proscriptive wording and commitments within any part of the COP30 deal around transitioning away from fossil fuels.
But the reasons provided were nuanced and varied and cannot be characterised as meaning both blocs simply did not wish to undertake the transition – in fact, all countries under the Paris Agreement had already agreed to this in Dubai two years ago at COP28.
However, further analysis by Carbon Brief of the list shows that it also – mistakenly – includes all of the members of the LDCs, bar Afghanistan and Myanmar, which were not present at the talks. In total, the LDCs represented 42 nations in Belém, ranging from Bangladesh and Benin through to Tuvalu and Tanzania.
Some of the LDC nations had publicly backed a fossil-fuel roadmap.
‘Not correct’
Manjeet Dhakal, lead adviser to the LDC chair, tells Carbon Brief that it is “not correct” that the LDCs, as a bloc, opposed a fossil-fuel roadmap during the COP30 negotiations.
He says that the group’s expectations, made public before COP, clearly identified transitioning away from fossil fuels as an “urgent action” to keep the Paris Agreement’s 1.5C goal “within reach”. He adds:
“The LDC group has never blocked a fossil-fuel roadmap. [In fact], a few LDCs, including Nepal, have supported the idea.”
Dhakal’s statement highlights a further confusing feature of the informal list – 14 countries appear on both of the lists of supporters and opposers. This is possible because many countries sit within two or more negotiating blocs at UN climate talks.
For example, Kiribati, Solomon Islands and Tuvalu are members of both the “alliance of small island states” (AOSIS) and the LDCs.
As is the case with the “informal list” of opposers, the list of supporters (which was obtained by Carbon Brief during the talks) is primarily made up of negotiating alliances.
Specifically, it includes AOSIS, the “environmental integrity group” (EIG), the “independent association of Latin America and the Caribbean” (AILAC) and the European Union (EU).
In alphabetical order, the 14 countries on both lists are: Bahrain; Bulgaria; Comoros; Cuba; Czech Republic; Guinea-Bissau; Haiti; Hungary; Kiribati; Nepal; Sierra Leone; Solomon Islands; Timor-Leste; and Tuvalu.
This obvious anomaly acts to highlight the mistaken inclusion of the LDCs on the informal list of opposers.
The list includes 37 of the 54 nations within the Africa group, which was chaired by Tanzania in Belém.
But this also appears to be a function of the mistaken inclusion of the LDCs in the list, many of which sit within both blocs.
Confusion
An overview of the talks published by the Guardian this week reported:
“Though [Brazil’s COP30 president André Corrêa do Lago] told the Guardian [on 19 November] that the divide over the [roadmap] issue could be bridged, [he] kept insisting 80 countries were against the plan, though these figures were never substantiated. One negotiator told the Guardian: ‘We don’t understand where that number comes from.’
“A clue came when Richard Muyungi, the Tanzanian climate envoy who chairs the African group, told a closed meeting that all its 54 members aligned with the 22-member Arab Group on the issue. But several African countries told the Guardian this was not true and that they supported the phaseout – and Tanzania has a deal with Saudi Arabia to exploit its gas reserves.”
Adding to the confusion, the Guardian also said two of the most powerful members of the LMDCs were not opposed to a roadmap, reporting: “China, having demurred on the issue, indicated it would not stand in the way [of a roadmap]; India also did not object.”
Writing for Climate Home News, ActionAid USA’s Brandon Wu said:
“Between rich country intransigence and undemocratic processes, it’s understandable – and justifiable – that many developing countries, including most of the Africa group, are uncomfortable with the fossil-fuel roadmap being pushed for at COP30. It doesn’t mean they are all ‘blockers’ or want the world to burn, and characterising them as such is irresponsible.
“The core package of just transition, public finance – including for adaptation and loss and damage – and phasing out fossil fuels and deforestation is exactly that: a package. The latter simply will not happen, politically or practically, without the former.”
Carbon Brief understands that Nigeria was a vocal opponent of the roadmap’s inclusion in the mutirão deal during the final hours of the closed-door negotiations, but that does not equate to it opposing a transition away from fossil fuels. This is substantiated by the ENB summary:
“During the…closing plenary…Nigeria stressed that the transition away from fossil fuels should be conducted in a nationally determined way, respecting [common, but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities].”
The “informal list” of opposers also includes three EU members – Bulgaria, the Czech Republic and Hungary.
The EU – led politically at the talks by climate commissioner Wopke Hoekstra, but formally chaired by Denmark – was reportedly at the heart of efforts to land a deal that explicitly included a “roadmap” for transitioning away from fossil fuels.
Carbon Brief understands that, as part of the “informal intelligence gathering” used to compile the list, pre-existing positions on climate actions by nations were factored in rather than only counting positions expressed at Belém. For example, Hungary and the Czech Republic were reported to have been among those resisting the last-minute “hard-fought deal” by the EU on its 2040 climate target and latest Paris Agreement climate pledge.
(Note that EU members Poland and Italy did not join the list of countries supporting a fossil-fuel roadmap at COP30.)
The remaining individual nations on the informal list either have economies that are heavily dependent on fossil-fuel production (for example, Russia and Brunei Darussalam), or are, like the US, currently led by right-leaning governments resistant to climate action (for example, Argentina).
Turkey is a notable inclusion on the list because it was agreed in Belém that it will host next year’s COP31 in Antalya, but with Australia leading the negotiation process. In contrast, Australia is on the 85-strong list of roadmap supporters.
However, a spokesperson for Turkey’s delegation in Belem has told Carbon Brief that it did not oppose the roadmap at COP30 and its inclusion on the list is “wrong”.
Media characterisations
Some media reporting of the roadmap “blockers” sought to identify the key proponents.
For example, the Sunday Times said “the ‘axis of obstruction’ – Saudi Arabia, Russia and China – blocked the Belém roadmap”.
Agence France-Presse highlighted the views of a French minister who said: “Who are the biggest blockers? We all know them. They are the oil-producing countries, of course. Russia, India, Saudi Arabia. But they are joined by many emerging countries.”
Reuters quoted Vanuatu’s climate minister alleging that “Saudi Arabia was one of those opposed”.
The Financial Times said “a final agreement [was] blocked again and again by countries led by Saudi Arabia and Russia”.
Bloomberg said the roadmap faced “stiff opposition from Arab states and Russia”.
Media coverage in India and China has pushed back at the widespread portrayals of what many other outlets had described as the “blockers” of a fossil-fuel roadmap.
The Indian Express reported:
“India said it was not opposed to the mention of a fossil-fuel phaseout plan in the package, but it must be ensured that countries are not called to adhere to a uniform pathway for it.”
Separately, speaking on behalf of the LMDCs during the closing plenary at COP30, India had said: “Adaptation is a priority. Our regime is not mitigation centric.”
China Daily, a state-run newspaper that often reflects the government’s official policy positions, published a comment article this week stating:
“Over 80 countries insisted that the final deal must include a concrete plan to act on the previous commitment to move beyond coal, oil, and natural gas adopted at COP28…But many delegates from the global south disagreed, citing concerns about likely sudden economic contraction and heightened social instability. The summit thus ended without any agreement on this roadmap.
“Now that the conference is over, and emotions are no longer running high, all parties should look objectively at the potential solution proposed by China, which some international media outlets wrongly painted as an opponent to the roadmap.
“Addressing an event on the sidelines of the summit, Xia Yingxian, deputy head of China’s delegation to COP30, said the narrative on transitioning away from fossil fuels would find greater acceptance if it were framed differently, focusing more on the adoption of renewable energy sources.”
Speaking to Carbon Brief at COP30, Dr Osama Faqeeha, Saudi Arabia’s deputy environment minister, refused to be drawn on whether a fossil-fuel roadmap was a red line for his nation, but said:
“I think the issue is the emissions, it’s not the fuel. And our position is that we have to cut emissions regardless.”
Neither the Arab group nor the LMDCs responded to Carbon Brief’s invitation to comment on their inclusion on the list.
The Brazilian COP30 presidency did not respond at the time of publication.
While the fossil-fuel roadmap was not part of the formal COP30 outcome, the Brazilian presidency announced in the closing plenary that it would take the idea forward under its own initiative, drawing on an international conference hosted in Colombia next year.
Corrêa do Lago told the closing plenary:
“We know some of you had greater ambitions for some of the issues at hand…As president Lula said at the opening of this COP, we need roadmaps so that humanity, in a just and planned manner, can overcome its dependence on fossil fuels, halt and reverse deforestation and mobilise resources for these purposes.
“I, as president of COP30, will therefore create two roadmaps, one on halting and reverting deforestation, another to transitioning away from fossil fuels in a just, orderly and equitable manner. They will be led by science and they will be inclusive with the spirit of the mutirão.
“We will convene high level dialogues, gathering key international organisations, governments from both producing and consuming countries, industry workers, scholars, civil society and will report back to the COP. We will also benefit from the first international conference for the phase-out of fossil fuels, scheduled to take place in April in Colombia.”
Fossil-fuel roadmap
‘Supporters’
Both ‘supporter’ and ‘opposer’
‘Opposers’
Additional reporting by Daisy Dunne.
The post Revealed: Leak casts doubt on COP30’s ‘informal list’ of fossil-fuel roadmap opponents appeared first on Carbon Brief.
Revealed: Leak casts doubt on COP30’s ‘informal list’ of fossil-fuel roadmap opponents
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