UK potatoes, South Korean cabbage and west African cocoa are just some of the foods that became markedly more expensive after extreme weather events in recent years, according to new research.
The study, published in Environmental Research Letters, analyses 16 examples of food price rises across the world that followed periods of extreme heat, drought or rainfall over 2022-24.
A “striking” example, according to the lead author, is the wide-ranging price impact following a 2024 heatwave in Asia, which saw cost increases from onions in India to rice in Japan.
Soaring food prices have been a major concern for consumers around the world since around 2021, with prices rising due to extreme weather fuelled by climate change, higher production costs and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine – among other factors.
The new findings act as a “stark reminder” of the “significant pressure” climate change is already having on crops, a researcher not involved in the study says.
Effects of weather extremes
Extreme weather has both immediate and long-lasting impacts on food production. It can destroy growing crops, impact yields and even weaken food supply chains.
One impact frequently tied to climate change is the rising cost of food. The price of everything from olive oil to eggs, and from chocolate to rice has fluctuated in many parts of the world in recent years.
The new study analyses 16 examples of increased food prices after a period of extreme weather over 2022-24. The researchers then assess how unusual the extreme heat, drought and rainfall events were compared to historical climate data.
These case studies are outlined in the map below. The shading indicates the percentage by which each weather extreme exceeded past climate data from that time period.
Many events, indicated by the darkest shading, “were so extreme as to completely exceed all historical precedent prior to 2020”, the study says.
The analysis is based on temperature data from Copernicus ERA5 spanning 1940-2024 and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index spanning 1901-2023, along with reporting from a range of news outlets and food price data from governments and industry groups.
(ERA5 is a reanalysis dataset that combines climate observations with model simulations.)
Dr Maximilian Kotz, a postdoctoral fellow at the Barcelona Supercomputing Center and the lead author of the new study, explains that some of the examples involve multiple types of extreme weather, such as intense heat and drought. But the researchers chose the extreme which occurred closest to the price rise for “simplicity of communication” on the map.
The research team selected “prominent” case studies, Kotz tells Carbon Brief, where the “effects are so obvious…that you don’t need a substantial, quantitative statistical analysis to see them. The people on the ground can see that this is what’s happening.”
The 2024 heatwave in Asia was a particularly “striking” example, he says, adding:
“What’s so interesting there is how widespread that exceptional heat was and also how ubiquitous these effects [on food prices] essentially were towards the end of last summer.
“India, China, South Korea, Japan, Vietnam – all of these countries that all experienced really exceptional heat…and all of them had documentation of these kinds of effects, to some extent.”
The study authors note that while the 2023-24 El Niño “likely played a role in amplifying a number of these extremes”, the increased intensity and frequency of the events is “in line with the expected and observed effects of climate change”.
(Other researchers have carried out rapid attribution analyses to assess the role of climate change in a number of the events included in the study, such as UK winter rainfall in 2023, Pakistan floods in 2022 and Ethiopian drought in 2022.)
In the UK, food price inflation is still rising as retailers partly blamed “hot weather hitting harvest yields”, the Guardian reported.
Cabbage, olive oil and rice
Government statistics indicate that extreme heat across east Asia in 2024 contributed to the cost of cabbage in South Korea rising 70% and rice in Japan increasing 48% from September 2023 to September 2024, the study says. The same heat also contributed to a 30% rise in the cost of vegetables in China between June and August 2024.
China, South Korea and Japan were among the many countries to experience their hottest year on record in 2024.
In the US, the researchers find that an “unprecedented” drought in California and Arizona across 2022 contributed to an 80% increase in vegetable prices between November 2021 and November 2022.
Droughts in southern Europe in 2022-23 drove a 50% price increase in olive oil across the EU from January 2023 to January 2024. Spain is the world’s largest producer of olive oil, followed by Italy – both of which were badly affected by the drought.
Cocoa was another commodity whose price has soared globally in the past couple of years. This was due to a number of factors, the study says, including extreme weather in Ghana and the Ivory Coast where more than 60% of the world’s cocoa is grown.
Many parts of the two west African countries experienced “unprecedented” temperatures of up to 50C in February 2024, following a “prolonged drought” in 2023.
The “dangerous”, humid February heat was made about 4C hotter due to climate change, according to analysis from the World Weather Attribution group.
The new study also looks at coffee price increases after extreme heat in Vietnam in 2024 and a 2023 drought in Brazil.
Kotz said the most notable examples of price rises were with commodities such as cocoa and coffee, which are available globally, but produced in concentrated areas – opening up the “possibility for greater volatility” in the event of weather extremes.
‘Knock-on’ effects
A 2024 study by Kotz and researchers at the European Central Bank found that high temperatures increased food inflation “persistently” for 12 months after the extremes in both high- and low-income countries.
Kotz says the new study is a “follow up” to this research. It discusses some of the other factors impacting the food prices in the study, such as high transport costs contributing to rising food prices in Ethiopia, as well as rising production costs and high tourist demand contributing to soaring rice prices in Japan.
The findings are a “stark reminder that climate change is already putting significant pressure on crop production globally”, says Dr Jasper Verschuur, an assistant professor of engineering and climate security at Delft University of Technology in the Netherlands.
Verschuur, who was not involved in the research, tells Carbon Brief:
“This study also stresses that the impacts of shocks to the agricultural sector can have cross-sectoral impacts – for instance, to health, political stability and monetary policy – which are rarely ever captured in modelling studies.”
He notes that while understanding of local impacts of extreme weather on crop yields and price has “improved”, the wider impacts and dual effects of climate and non-climate “shocks” are still less well-understood.
The researchers discuss some of the “knock-on societal risks” from rising food prices in the study, such as increasing economic inequality, malnutrition and an overall increase in inflation.
In a statement about the new research, Shona Goudie, the policy and advocacy manager at the Food Foundation, a UK charity whose executive director was involved in the study, says:
“Increasingly frequent price shocks due to climate change could see food insecurity and health inequalities deteriorate even further.”
The post Mapped: 16 times extreme weather drove higher food prices since 2022 appeared first on Carbon Brief.
Mapped: 16 times extreme weather drove higher food prices since 2022
Colombia wants countries to discuss options for a global agreement to ensure that the extraction, processing and recycling of minerals – including those needed for the clean energy transition – don’t harm the environment and human wellbeing.
The mineral-rich nation is proposing to create an expert group to “identify options for international instruments, including global and legally-binding instruments, for coordinated global action on the environmentally sound management of minerals and metals through [their] full lifecyle”.
Colombia hopes this will eventually lead to an agreement on the need for an international treaty to define mandatory rules and standards that would make mineral value chains more transparent and accountable.
The proposal was set out in a draft resolution submitted to the UN Environment Assembly (UNEA) earlier this week and seen by Climate Home News. UNEA, which is constituted of all UN member states, is the world’s top decision-making body for matters relating to the environment. The assembly’s seventh session will meet in Kenya in December to vote on countries’ proposals.
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Soaring demand for the minerals used to manufacture clean energy technologies and electric vehicles, as well as in the digital, construction and defence industries have led to growing environmental destruction, human rights violations and social conflict.
Colombia argues there is an “urgent need” to strengthen global cooperation and governance to reduce the risks to people and the planet.
Options for a global minerals agreement
The proposal is among a flurry of initiatives to strength global mineral governance at a time when booming demand is putting pressure on new mining projects.
Colombia, which produces emeralds, gold, platinum and silver for exports, first proposed the idea for a binding international agreement on minerals traceability and accountability on the sidelines of the UN biodiversity talks it hosted in October 2024.
Since then, the South American nation has been quietly trying to drum up support for the idea, especially among African and European nations.
Its draft resolution to UNEA7 contains very few details, leaving it open for countries to discuss what kind of global instrument would be best suited to make mineral supply chains more transparent and sustainable.
Does the world need a global treaty on energy transition minerals?
Colombia says it wants the expert group to build on other UN initiatives, including a UN Panel on Critical Energy Transition Minerals, which set out seven principles to ensure the mining, processing and recycling of energy transition minerals are done responsibly and benefit everyone.
The group would include technical experts and representatives from international and regional conventions, major country groupings as well as relevant stakeholders.
It would examine the feasibility and effectiveness of different options for a global agreement, consider their costs and identify measures to support countries to implement what is agreed.
The resolution also calls for one or two meetings for member states to discuss the idea before the UNEA8 session planned in late 2027, when countries would decide on a way forward.
No time to lose for treaty negotiations
Colombia’s efforts to advance global talks on mineral supply chains have been welcomed by resource experts and campaigners. But not everyone agrees on the best strategy to move the discussion forward at a time when multilateralism is coming under attack.
Johanna Sydow, a resource policy expert who heads the international environmental policy division of the Heinrich-Böll Foundation, said she had hoped that the resolution would explicitly call for negotiations to begin on an international minerals treaty.
“Treaty negotiations take a long time. If you don’t even start with it now, it will take even longer. I don’t see how in two or three years it will be easier to come to an agreement,” she told Climate Home.
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Despite the geopolitical challenges, “we need joint rules to prevent a huge race to the bottom for [mineral] standards”. That could start with a group of countries coming together and starting to enforce joint standards for mining, processing and recycling minerals, she said.
But any meaningful global agreement on mineral supply chains would require backing from China, the world’s largest processor of minerals, which dominates most of the supply chains. And with Colombia heading for an election in May, it will need all the support it can get to move its proposal forward.
‘Voluntary initiative won’t cut it’
Juliana Peña Niño, Colombia country manager at the Natural Resource Governance Institute, is more optimistic. “Colombia’s leadership towards fairer mineral value chains is a welcome step,” she told Climate Home News.
“At UNEA7, we need an ambitious debate that gives the proposed expert group a clear mandate to advance concrete next steps — not delay decisions — and that puts the voices of those most affected at the centre. One thing is clear: the path forward must ultimately deliver a binding instrument, as yet another voluntary initiative simply won’t cut it,” she said.
More than 50 civil society groups spanning Latin America, Africa and Europe previously described Colombia’s work on the issue as “a chance to build a new global paradigm rooted in environmental integrity, human rights, Indigenous Peoples’ rights, justice and equity”.
“As the energy transition and digitalisation drive demand for minerals, we cannot afford to repeat old extractive models built on asymmetry – we must redefine them,” they wrote in a statement.
Main image: The UN Environment Assembly is hosted in Nairobi, Kenya. (Natalia Mroz/ UN Environment)
The post Colombia proposes expert group to advance talks on minerals agreement appeared first on Climate Home News.
Colombia proposes expert group to advance talks on minerals agreement
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Climate Change
DeBriefed 3 October 2025: UK political gap on climate widens; Fossil-fuelled Typhoon Ragasa; ‘Overshoot’ unknowns
Welcome to Carbon Brief’s DeBriefed.
An essential guide to the week’s key developments relating to climate change.
This week
Shattered climate consensus
FRACKING BAN: UK energy secretary Ed Miliband has announced that the government will bring forward its plans to permanently ban fracking, in a move designed to counter a promise from the hard-right Reform party to restart efforts to introduce the practice, the Guardian said. In the same speech, Miliband said Reform’s plans to scrap clean-energy projects would “betray” young people and future generations, the Press Association reported.
ACT AXE?: Meanwhile, Kemi Badenoch, leader of the Conservatives, pledged to scrap the 2008 Climate Change Act if elected, Bloomberg reported. It noted that the legislation was passed with cross-party support and strengthened by the Conservatives.
‘INSANE’: Badenoch faced a backlash from senior Tory figures, including ex-prime minister Theresa May, who called her pledge a “catastrophic mistake”, said the Financial Times. The newspaper added that the Conservatives were “trailing third in opinion polls”. A wide range of climate scientists also condemned the idea, describing it as “insane”, an “insult” and a “serious regression”.
Around the world
- CLIMATE CRACKDOWN: The US Department of Energy has told employees in the Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy to avoid using the term “climate change”, according to the Guardian.
- FOREST DELAY: Plans for Brazil’s COP30 flagship initiative, the tropical forests forever fund, are “suffer[ing] delays” as officials remain split on key details, Bloomberg said.
- COP MAY BE ‘SPLIT’: Australia could “split” the hosting of the COP31 climate summit in 2026 under a potential compromise with Turkey, reported the Guardian.
- DIVINE INTERVENTION: Pope Leo XIV has criticised those who minimise the “increasingly evident” impact of global warming in his first major climate speech, BBC News reported.
€44.5 billion
The cost of extreme weather and climate change in the EU in the last four years – two-and-a-half times higher than in the decade to 2019, according to a European Environment Agency report covered by the Financial Times.
Latest climate research
- Fossil-fuelled climate change caused around 36% of Typhoon Ragasa’s direct damage to homes and properties in southern China, according to a rapid impact attribution study | Imperial Grantham Institute – Climate Change and the Environment
- Some 86% of the global population are concerned about climate change, according to a survey of 280,000 people in 142 countries and regions | Climate Policy
- A global shift towards a “planetary health diet” could slash emissions and save tens of thousands of lives each day | EAT-Lancet Commission 2025 report
(For more, see Carbon Brief’s in-depth daily summaries of the top climate news stories on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.)
Captured
Clean energy has met 100% of Great Britain’s electricity demand for a record 87 hours this year so far, according to new Carbon Brief analysis. This is up from just 2.5 hours in 2021 and 64.5 hours in all of 2024. The longest stretch of time where 100% of electricity demand was met by clean energy stands at 15 hours, from midnight on 25 May 2025 through to 3pm on 26 May, according to the analysis.
Spotlight
‘Overshoot’ unknowns
As the chances of limiting global warming to 1.5C dwindle, there is increasing focus on the prospects for “overshooting” the Paris Agreement target and then bringing temperatures back down by removing CO2 from the atmosphere.
At the first-ever Overshoot Conference in Laxenburg, Austria, Carbon Brief asks experts about the key unknowns around warming “overshoot”.
Sir Prof Jim Skea
Chair of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and emeritus professor at Imperial College London’s Centre for Environmental Policy
So there are huge knowledge gaps around overshoot and carbon dioxide removal (CDR). As it’s very clear from the themes of this conference, we don’t altogether understand how the Earth would react in taking CO2 out of the atmosphere.
We don’t understand the nature of the irreversibilities and we don’t understand the effectiveness of CDR techniques, which might themselves be influenced by the level of global warming, plus all the equity and sustainability issues surrounding using CDR techniques.
Prof Kristie Ebi
Professor at the University of Washington’s Center for Health and the Global Environment
There are all kinds of questions about adaptation and how to approach effective adaptation. At the moment, adaptation is primarily assuming a continual increase in global mean surface temperature. If there is going to be a peak – and of course, we don’t know what that peak is – then how do you start planning? Do you change your planning?
There are places, for instance when thinking about hard infrastructure, [where overshoot] may result in a change in your plan – because as you come down the backside, maybe the need would be less. For example, when building a bridge taller. And when implementing early warning systems, how do you take into account that there will be a peak and ultimately a decline? There is almost no work in that. I would say that’s one of the critical unknowns.
Dr James Fletcher
Former minister for public service, sustainable development, energy, science and technology for Saint Lucia and negotiator at COP21 in Paris.
The key unknown is where we’re going to land. At what point will we peak [temperatures] before we start going down and how long will we stay in that overshoot period? That is a scary thing. Yes, there will be overshoot, but at what point will that overshoot peak? Are we peaking at 1.6C, 1.7C, 2.1C?
All of these are scary scenarios for small island developing states – anything above 1.5C is scary. Every fraction of a degree matters to us. Where we peak is very important and how long we stay in this overshoot period is equally important. That’s when you start getting into very serious, irreversible impacts and tipping points.
Prof Oliver Geden
Senior fellow and head of the climate policy and politics research cluster at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs and vice-chair of IPCC Working Group III
[A key unknown] is whether countries are really willing to commit to net-negative trajectories. We are assuming, in science, global pathways going net-negative, with hardly any country saying they want to go there. So maybe it is just an academic thought experiment. So we don’t know yet if [overshoot] is even relevant. It is relevant in the sense that if we do, [the] 1.5C [target] stays on the table. But I think the next phase needs to be that countries – or the UNFCCC as a whole – needs to decide what they want to do.
Prof Lavanya Rajamani
Professor of international environmental law at the University of Oxford
I think there are several scientific unknowns, but I would like to focus on the governance unknowns with respect to overshoot. To me, a key governance unknown is the extent to which our current legal and regulatory architecture – across levels of governance, so domestic, regional and international – will actually be responsive to the needs of an overshoot world and the consequences of actually not having regulatory and governance architectures in place to address overshoot.
Watch, read, listen
FUTURE GAZING: The Financial Times examined a “future where China wins the green race”.
‘JUNK CREDITS’: Climate Home News reported on a “forest carbon megaproject” in Zimbabwe that has allegedly “generated millions of junk credits”.
‘SINK OR SWIM’: An extract from a new book on how the world needs to adapt to climate change, by Dr Susannah Fisher, featured in Backchannel.
Coming up
- 7 October: International Energy Agency (IEA) renewables 2025 report launch
- 8-10 October: World summit of Indigenous peoples and nature, Abu Dhabi, UAE
- 9-15 October: International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) 2025 congress, Abu Dhabi, UAE
Pick of the jobs
- UK government foreign, commonwealth and development office, senior climate policy adviser | Salary: CA$93,207. Location: Calgary, Canada
- Wellcome Trust, senior research manager, climate and health | Salary: £64,800. Location: London
- Bloomberg, product manager – climate, nature and sustainability regulations | Salary: Unknown. Location: London
DeBriefed is edited by Daisy Dunne. Please send any tips or feedback to debriefed@carbonbrief.org.
This is an online version of Carbon Brief’s weekly DeBriefed email newsletter. Subscribe for free here.
The post DeBriefed 3 October 2025: UK political gap on climate widens; Fossil-fuelled Typhoon Ragasa; ‘Overshoot’ unknowns appeared first on Carbon Brief.
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