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Indonesia Aims to Sell 13.4 Billion Tonnes of Carbon Credits to Global Buyers

Indonesia plans to sell 13.4 billion tonnes of carbon-dioxide equivalent (CO₂e) credits to global buyers. This is one of the biggest carbon market plans in the world. The government says the move could bring in billions of dollars in investment while helping the country meet its climate goals.

The forestry minister’s announcement comes as more countries and companies look to buy verified carbon credits to offset emissions. Experts estimate the global carbon market could grow to $35 billion by 2030, more than five times its current size. With its large forests and renewable energy projects, Indonesia could become a major supplier of these credits.

Building a Global Carbon Market

The 13.4 billion tonnes of CO₂e credits will come from projects that cut or remove carbon emissions. These include forest protection, peatland restoration, renewable energy, and carbon capture programs.

Indonesia has about 125 million hectares of tropical forest, which absorbs over 25 billion tonnes of CO₂e every year. The government sees carbon trading as a way to earn money while protecting the environment.

Officials say this plan could create tens of thousands of green jobs. It will also attract private funding for conservation and clean energy projects.

The credits will be traded through Indonesia’s national carbon registry, the Sistem Registri Nasional (SRN). This system tracks emissions and removals across industries and projects.

The Rise of Carbon Trading at Home

Indonesia launched its own carbon exchange in 2023 through the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX). During its first year, it traded about 500,000 tonnes of CO₂e, worth around $5 million.

By 2024, the country had registered more than 2,000 carbon projects, covering areas like energy, forestry, and manufacturing. The government also started a carbon-pricing system for power plants. Large emitters must now report their emissions and offset some of them through credits.

In 2025, Indonesia reopened carbon trading with other countries under new rules aligned with the Paris Agreement. These rules prevent double-counting of emission cuts and make trading more transparent.

However, local carbon prices remain lower than international ones. Indonesia’s credits often sell for under $20 per tonne, while high-quality global credits range from $40 to $80 per tonne. Officials hope international demand will help raise prices closer to global levels.

The Economic and Climate Impact

If Indonesia sells all 13.4 billion tonnes of credits, they could be worth between $130 billion and $670 billion, depending on the market price. Even selling a fraction of this amount would make Indonesia one of the world’s biggest carbon credit exporters.

The program supports the country’s pledge to cut emissions by almost 32% on its own or 43% with global support by 2030. Indonesia also aims to reach net-zero emissions by 2060.

Indonesias-pathway-to-net-zero-2060
Source: Kearney

Moreover, the country aims to cut emissions by up to 43% by 2030 with international support. Indonesia’s forests and peatlands store large amounts of carbon; protecting them and trading carbon credits can turn this natural resource into income.

At the same time, the country still burns coal for much of its power, so these credits help raise funds for cleaner energy. Revenue from carbon credit sales will support:

  • Forest protection: Deforestation, which once exceeded 1 million hectares per year, has already declined and could fall further.
  • Renewable energy projects: Solar, hydro, and geothermal sources now supply about 14% of Indonesia’s power.
  • Local communities: Landowners who protect forests and wetlands will earn income instead of clearing them for crops.

These projects link environmental goals with economic growth. They help rural areas gain from the green economy. The Southeast Asian nation has the following pillars in cutting emissions. 

Indonesia net zero pathway
Source: Kearney

Big Buyers, Bigger Ambitions

Many large companies are eager to buy reliable carbon credits. Firms like Microsoft, Shell, and Delta Air Lines have pledged to offset emissions through verified carbon projects.

According to BloombergNEF, demand for nature-based credits could rise from 165 million tonnes in 2024 to over 1 billion tonnes by 2030. If Indonesia supplies even 10% of that, it could sell 100 million tonnes each year and earn around $5 billion annually at moderate prices.

Indonesia’s participation will also help balance global supply, which currently depends mostly on Latin America and Africa. A more diverse carbon market could make prices fairer and more stable worldwide.

Per Sylvera’s report, nature-based credits (ARR) price hit a record high in late 2025.  The report shows that buyers are looking for projects that have a verified impact and deliver real results.

carbon credit prices ARR sylvera

Challenges and Verification

Indonesia’s plan faces some key challenges. Experts warn that buyers need strong proof that credits represent real, lasting carbon reductions.

The government is working with certification bodies such as Verra and Gold Standard to verify projects and meet international standards. It will also use digital systems to track every project and transaction.

Some environmental groups worry about “reversal risk.” This happens when forest-based carbon savings are lost later through fires or illegal logging. To prevent this, Indonesia plans to set up a buffer system — keeping some credits in reserve in case of future losses.

The country will also use “corresponding adjustment” rules to ensure every exported credit is subtracted from Indonesia’s national inventory. This keeps its reporting aligned with global accounting standards.

Asia’s Race for Carbon Leadership

The International Energy Agency (IEA) says the world needs to remove or offset 5 to 10 billion tonnes of CO₂ each year by 2050 to meet climate targets. At present, global carbon markets cover less than 1% of that need.

Countries like Indonesia can help fill this gap. The World Bank estimates Southeast Asia could earn $10 billion a year from carbon trading by 2030 if systems are transparent and credible.

Countries like Vietnam and Malaysia are also creating carbon registries. They might open their markets to foreign buyers soon.

Carbon credit exports could make Indonesia a leader in the global green economy. The country could use this income to fund renewable energy, restore ecosystems, and support local livelihoods.

Indonesia’s carbon market potential
Source: PwC

Under government rules, at least 30% of carbon credit revenue must go to local communities and regional governments. This helps support reforestation, sustainable farming, and eco-tourism.

If the plan works, experts say Indonesia could cut up to 2 billion tonnes of CO₂e by 2030. That’s like taking 400 million cars off the road for a whole year.

Promise and Proof: Making Every Credit Count

Indonesia’s offer to sell 13.4 billion carbon credits shows how climate policy and economic growth can work together. The opportunity is huge, but success will depend on strong verification, fair pricing, and transparent reporting.

If done right, the plan could turn Indonesia into one of the top players in the global carbon market. It could also help meet global climate goals while bringing new income to rural areas.

As more nations look for trustworthy carbon credits, Indonesia’s forests and renewables could become valuable global assets. The challenge now is to make sure every credit sold represents real, lasting progress for the planet.

The post Indonesia Aims to Sell 13.4 Billion Tonnes of Carbon Credits to Global Buyers appeared first on Carbon Credits.

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How to improve Scope 3 data accuracy for CSRD

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For most businesses, the emissions that matter most sit outside their own walls. Scope 3 emissions, everything generated across your value chain, from the suppliers who make your inputs to the customers who use your products, typically make up the majority of a company’s total carbon footprint. Under the Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive (CSRD), those value-chain emissions now have to be measured and disclosed with a rigour that spend-based estimates alone struggle to satisfy. This guide sets out how to improve Scope 3 data accuracy for CSRD: the calculation methods open to you, how to move from estimates to verified supplier data, and how to govern that data so it holds up to audit.

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How community stewardship makes carbon credits durable

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A carbon credit is a commitment that extends well into the future. The tonne of CO₂ compensated for today from a nature-based carbon project must remain out of the atmosphere for good, which means the forest behind the credit has to remain standing long after the transaction is complete. For any buyer, this raises a defining question: What ensures that the forest endures?

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Why Conventional Carbon Offsets Are Losing Boardroom Credibility

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What replaced the cheap REDD credit on the boardroom slide deck, and why procurement is leading the rewrite.

Three years ago, a corporate slide showing a portfolio of cheap REDD+ credits could carry a board meeting. The number was big, the price was low, and the press release wrote itself. Today, that same slide gets sent back with questions. The questions are uncomfortable, the answers are unclear, and your general counsel is suddenly in the room.

Conventional carbon offsets are not dead. The voluntary carbon market retired 202 million tonnes in 2025, and the Morgan Stanley Institute for Sustainable Investing survey published in January 2026 confirmed that interest from corporate buyers remains substantial. What changed is the credibility threshold. The integrity floor has risen, the disclosure scrutiny has tightened, and the buyer profile has shifted. This article tracks what changed, what sophisticated buyers now ask before signing, and what serious corporates are putting on the board slide instead.

What boards used to buy, and why it stopped working

The 2020 to 2022 model was simple: buy a large tranche of avoidance credits at low single-digit prices, retire them against the company footprint, announce the carbon-neutral claim, and move on. Most of those credits came from REDD+ projects, renewable energy installations in countries where the renewable energy was already economic, or methane projects with thin documentation.

Several things broke that model. Academic research published in 2023, including a widely cited Science paper, found that the majority of REDD+ credits issued under the most common methodologies did not represent additional reductions when tested against rigorous counterfactuals. The Voluntary Carbon Markets Integrity Initiative published its Claims Code of Practice, which sets requirements for what companies can credibly claim from credit use. The European Union finalised its Green Claims Directive, restricting how companies can describe products as climate-neutral. France’s Décret 2022-539 already restricts carbon neutrality advertising. California’s AB 1305 imposes disclosure requirements on any company making net-zero or carbon-neutral claims while doing business in the state.

The collective effect: the cheap credit no longer buys the announcement, and the announcement now carries litigation risk.

The integrity reset: ICVCM, VCMI, and what changed

The Integrity Council for the Voluntary Carbon Market published the Core Carbon Principles in 2023 and began assessing methodologies against them in 2024. The first methodologies received the CCP label later that year. The point of the label is to give corporate buyers a defensible quality screen they can cite in disclosure.

The Voluntary Carbon Markets Integrity Initiative complements this on the demand side. Its Claims Code of Practice defines what a buyer can say (Silver, Gold, or Platinum claims, with associated requirements) based on the quality of credits used and the underlying decarbonisation strategy. Together, CCP and VCMI build a quality stack: CCP on the supply, VCMI on the claim, with the science-based target sitting underneath both.

The reset is not a ban on offsets. It is a ratchet. Credits that meet the new bar continue to clear; credits that do not, do not. The Morgan Stanley survey found that 61% of current buyers like the CCP label concept but that supply of labelled credits remains limited. That supply constraint is now visible in pricing.

What sophisticated buyers ask before they sign

The questions on the procurement scorecard have changed. A 2022 buyer might have asked about price, vintage, and project type. A 2026 buyer asks five different questions before any of those.

  • What does the counterfactual look like, and who validated it.
  • What is the permanence regime, and what is the buffer pool exposure.
  • What is the leakage risk, and how is it mitigated.
  • What rating has the project received from the independent ratings agencies (Sylvera, BeZero, Calyx Global), and what was the rationale.
  • What is the documentation discipline that survives an audit four years from now when the procurement team that signed the contract has moved on.

If the vendor cannot answer those five questions on a first call, the conversation ends. Conversely, if the vendor can answer them with documented specificity, the conversation often expands beyond a single transaction toward a multi-year engagement.

Where this leaves your near-term commitments

You probably have near-term commitments that pre-date the integrity reset. Public targets to be carbon neutral by 2025 or 2030. Product-level claims that ran in last year’s marketing. Disclosed reduction trajectories that assumed continued access to cheap credits.

You have three workable paths. The first is to re-baseline your strategy, replacing the most exposed credits with higher-quality alternatives and adjusting the public language to match what you can defend. The second is to shift the underlying spend from offsetting outside your value chain to investing inside your value chain, where reductions count against Scope 3 directly and the audit trail is cleaner. The third is to keep the strategy and absorb the risk, which is increasingly the most expensive option once you price in litigation, restatement, and reputational exposure.

Most serious buyers are choosing the second path. It moves the carbon spend from a compliance cost to a procurement and resilience investment, and it removes the central failure point of the legacy model: the disconnect between where the emissions occurred and where the reductions sat. Nature-based supply chain investments, structured under the GHG Protocol Land Sector and Removals Standard and aligned to the SBTi FLAG Guidance, are the asset class that fits this brief. They generate inventory-grade reductions, they produce audit-grade documentation, and they survive the new claim restrictions because the carbon math sits inside the value chain that the disclosure already covers.

If you are reassessing a carbon strategy under the new integrity bar, or rebuilding a board narrative that has to survive a more skeptical audience, the carbon and sustainability experts at Carbon Credit Capital can help. The Dual-Value Model gives you a defensible alternative to legacy offset purchases, with the documentation and operational integration that survives the procurement scorecard and the audit. Schedule a consultation.

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