Lithium prices plunged below $13,000/ton in June 2024, the lowest in 35 months, according to S&P Global Commodity Insights data. This is despite plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) sales across major markets have surged for the first 5 months.
Lithium Prices Hit New Lows
Lithium is the key element in manufacturing electric vehicles. Though lithium prices saw a slight increase in March, they declined in June 2024, driven by anticipated reductions in downstream battery production. The seaborne lithium carbonate CIF Asia price fell to a 35-month low of $12,900 per ton by June 18.

Source: S&P Global
Similarly, spodumene prices dropped by 9.5% to $1,050 per pound FOB-Australia, causing the merchant conversion margin to turn negative, averaging minus $118 per ton in June from $7,027 per ton in May.
Further decreases in spodumene prices are needed to prompt new mine-side supply cuts, last seen when prices fell below $900 per ton between mid-January and end-February.
Despite low prices, government interest in securing lithium production remains strong. Indonesia is emerging as a significant player in lithium chemicals production, integrating raw material-to-PEV supply chains. Chengxin started trial lithium chemical production in Indonesia in June, following the shipment of the first spodumene cargo from Port Hedland to Indonesia in May.
Additionally, the Serbian government is considering greenlighting the Jadar lithium project by Rio Tinto, which was previously halted in January 2022. This project would be Europe’s largest integrated lithium mine-to-refinery operation. It has a capacity of 58,000 metric tons of lithium carbonate, helping meet the EU’s battery metals demand.
And it’s not the EU, the rest of the world is vying for lithium as the global economy is ramping up electrification in transport.
Government Initiatives and Global Lithium Demand
In May 2024, PEV sales across key markets increased by 14.7% month-over-month and 25.9% year-over-year for the first five months, per S&P Global report.
China dominated, contributing nearly 90% of this growth, buoyed by new model launches and price discounts. Conversely, Germany and Norway saw declining sales, negatively impacting Europe’s top markets.

Source: S&P Global
In Europe and the US, PEV adoption is stalling due to the higher costs of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) despite brand discounts. Germany’s BEV sales dropped by 15.9% year-over-year after the environmental bonus ended in December 2023. BEV sales in the UK comprised 16% of total car sales but missed the 22% target under the 2024 zero-emissions vehicle mandate.
In the US, PEV sales have remained at 8%-10% of vehicle sales in 2024, consistent with late 2023 levels. More affordable models, especially in the $20,000 range, are needed to boost uptake in these markets.
From July 4, the EU will impose tariffs on imported BEVs from China, increasing up to 48.1% from the current 10%. The bloc aims to protect the European automotive industry and encourage local BEV production. However, this move might hinder the EV transition.
Between 2020 and 2023, BEV imports from China to the EU rose sevenfold. They’ve reached over 437,800 units in 2023, representing 28% of the 1.5 million BEVs sold in the bloc. These imports contained significant amounts of lithium carbonate equivalent (21,300 metric tons).
Accordingly, the EV revolution hinges on how the lithium market is moving forward and its forecasts.
Future Outlook for Lithium Market
Lithium prices have not shown signs of sustained recovery as the first half of 2024 ends. China’s reserve-buying of cobalt metal in May provided only short-lived support. Prices reached new multi-year lows in June due to summer’s downturn in battery demand and growing supply.
So, what’s in store for lithium in the coming months and years?
According to S&P Global lithium market outlook, prolonged low lithium carbonate prices are likely to pressure spodumene prices, potentially leading to further mine supply cuts and project delays.
Despite strong copper prices supporting cobalt by production and growing mine-side inventory, reduced consumer demand for PEVs has prompted many manufacturers to slow their EV targets and cancel new battery plants, like BMW’s €2 billion contract with Northvolt AB.
Higher import tariffs on China-made BEVs could slow EV transition in the EU and the US by making vehicles more expensive. The outcome of EU-China trade negotiations is crucial, as Europe balances relations with China and the US. The latter’s tax credits and funding attracting investments away from Europe, which is still building its support system.
Market surpluses for lithium would be larger in 2024, with forecasts of 38,000 metric tons LCE. Consequently, the lithium carbonate CIF Asia price forecast has been downgraded by $290/t to $14,129/t.

Source: S&P Global
A seasonal recovery in PEV sales is expected from September through year-end, which could narrow market surpluses and support prices. The long-term outlook for PEV uptake remains positive as automakers launch more affordable vehicles in the $20,000 range.
The future of the lithium market remains uncertain, with potential for further supply cuts and project delays. However, the long-term outlook for PEV uptake remains positive as automakers launch more affordable vehicles, potentially narrowing market surpluses and supporting prices.
The post Lithium Prices Fall to 35-Month Low Amid Surging EV Sales appeared first on Carbon Credits.
Carbon Footprint
Insetting vs Offsetting: Which Actually Counts Toward Your Scope 3 Targets
The accounting differences that decide whether your nature investment shows up in inventory, in BVCM, or nowhere at all.
The question reaches a procurement team about three weeks before the next sustainability committee meeting. Someone has read about insetting. Someone else has just signed off on an offset purchase. The CSO wants to know if the two are interchangeable. The answer is no, and the GHG Protocol Land Sector and Removals Standard is the reason why.
This article walks through what each term means at audit-grade specificity, what the standards actually say about how each gets counted, and how to decide which tool fits which target. The insetting vs offsetting question is one of the most-searched in corporate climate strategy, and one of the most poorly answered. By the end of this piece, you should be able to brief a committee on the difference without notes.
The two definitions, in plain English
Offsetting means buying carbon credits generated outside your value chain and retiring them against your residual emissions. The reduction happens somewhere else, financed by you, and the credit is the receipt.
Insetting means investing in emission reductions or removals inside your own value chain, typically with suppliers, where the reduction is directly linked to the products and services you buy. The reduction happens inside the boundary of your Scope 3 inventory, and the accounting treatment is fundamentally different.
The shorthand from the University of Oxford’s Nature-based Insetting Initiative is useful: insetting is what you do with the supply chain you have; offsetting is what you do with the supply chain you do not have.
What the GHG Protocol Land Sector Standard actually says
The GHG Protocol Land Sector and Removals Standard, finalised in 2024 after a multi-year pilot, sets the rules for how land-based emission reductions and removals enter corporate inventories. The Standard distinguishes between inventory accounting (Scope 1, 2, and 3) and project or intervention accounting (a separate methodology for crediting).
For insetting, the practical implication is that supplier-level interventions, when properly measured and attributed, can reduce your Scope 3 category 1 (purchased goods and services) emissions in your inventory. The reduction is not a credit retired against the inventory; it is a lower inventory number, period.
For offsetting, the credit is retired separately. It can be reported as a contribution toward a net-zero claim under the SBTi Beyond Value Chain Mitigation framework or as part of a VCMI Carbon Integrity claim, but it does not lower the inventory number.
A practical consequence: if your Science Based Target requires a 50% absolute reduction in Scope 3 emissions by 2030, insetting moves you toward the target. Offsetting does not. This single point of difference reshapes the procurement decision.
When insetting counts toward Scope 3 (and when it does not)
Insetting counts toward Scope 3 only when several conditions are met:
- The intervention must occur with an entity in your value chain.
- The emissions reduction or removal must be measured against a defensible baseline.
- The reduction must be attributed to your share of that supplier’s output, not double-counted with other buyers.
- It must follow the inventory accounting rules in the GHG Protocol Land Sector Standard, not the project accounting rules used to generate credits.
The most common failure mode is double counting. If your supplier sells the same reduction as a credit on the voluntary market and also reports it to you as a Scope 3 reduction, the math breaks. The Standard requires you to address this risk, typically by purchasing and retiring the supplier-issued credit as part of your inventory or by contractual provisions that prevent the supplier from selling the reduction twice.
When insetting does not count toward Scope 3: when the intervention sits with a supplier you do not buy from, when the baseline is not defensible, when the attribution is unclear, or when the documentation does not survive audit. Those cases default to Beyond Value Chain Mitigation, which is still useful but operates on a different ledger.
The procurement and supplier engagement question
Insetting is harder than offsetting. That is the unfashionable truth most buyers eventually confront. Offsetting is a transaction; insetting is a relationship.
To run an insetting program, you need supplier mapping precise enough to know which farms or facilities sit at which Scope 3 boundary. You need an engagement model that gets suppliers to participate, which usually requires multi-year commitments and shared economics. You need an MRV architecture that measures the right things and produces audit-ready documentation. And you need a contractual structure that prevents double counting and protects both sides.
The trade-off you receive in return is significant. Reductions count against your inventory rather than your residual. Supplier relationships deepen, which protects sourcing continuity. Yield and quality improvements often follow regenerative interventions, which reduces your input cost over time. And the regulatory file, under CSRD, CSDDD, EUDR, and the SBTi FLAG Guidance, is materially stronger.
Choosing the right tool for the right target
A practical decision rule. If your target is a science-based Scope 3 reduction and you operate in a FLAG sector or source FLAG commodities, insetting is the structurally correct tool. If your target is a net-zero claim that includes neutralising hard-to-abate residual emissions outside your value chain, BVCM via high-integrity offsets is the structurally correct tool. Most companies with material Scope 3 exposure need both, in different proportions, sequenced over time.
The sequencing matters. Insetting takes longer to stand up but produces a permanent reduction in the inventory. Offsetting can be transacted faster but does not change the inventory and now sits under tighter claim restrictions. Treat them as complementary tools with different jobs, not as substitutes. The Accountability Framework Initiative and the IUCN Global Standard for Nature-based Solutions both provide useful guardrails for the insetting side, with biodiversity, human rights, and benefit-sharing requirements that go beyond carbon math.
If you are mapping a Scope 3 reduction roadmap and need to scope which interventions count toward your inventory versus which sit in Beyond Value Chain Mitigation, the carbon and sustainability experts at Carbon Credit Capital can help you structure a nature-based supply chain investment program that fits your FLAG exposure, your target architecture, and your audit horizon. Schedule a consultation.
Carbon Footprint
Net zero needs nature: a carbon credit guide
Net zero is often described as a balancing act: cut what you can, account for the rest, and reach zero on the ledger. That framing is useful, but it leaves something out. It treats every tonne of carbon as interchangeable and every route to zero as equally sound, while the science tells a more specific story.
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Carbon Footprint
Deforestation in Malawi: causes and solutions
Malawi has lost a striking share of its forests over the past three decades. Woodlands that once covered well over a third of the country now cover less than a quarter, and the pressure on what remains is increasing. Behind those figures sit two practical questions: what is driving the loss, and what reverses it?
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