Connect with us

Published

on

Lithium Market Insight 2025: Price Recovery, EV Demand, and the Future of Extraction – Exclusive Interview

The lithium market is undergoing significant changes as demand for electric vehicles (EVs) and energy storage solutions continues to rise. This soft, silvery-white metal remains at the center of the global clean energy transition. 

Let’s uncover the major market trends according to experts and significant insights shared by the head of a lithium extraction company in an exclusive interview. 

Lithium Market Trends from CERAWeek 2025

At CERAWeek 2025, industry experts highlighted key trends shaping the lithium market. Experts noted that while lithium demand remains high due to EVs and energy storage systems, the market has seen volatility. 

Lithium prices in China fell from $76,000 per ton in early 2023 to about $23,000 per ton by year’s end. This drop raised worries about supply chain stability.

One of the most pressing concerns is the lack of a strong domestic lithium supply chain in the United States. Experts say that 77% of graphite for lithium-ion batteries comes from China. Overall, 53% of the US’s graphite imports since 2023 are from China. This highlights the need to diversify supply. 

graphite from China to US
Source: S&P Global
  • Battery production drives lithium demand. In 2023, global lithium consumption hit 180,000 tons. This marks a 27% rise from last year.

S&P Global Market Intelligence and Commodity Insights predict that lithium supplies will remain in surplus until 2032. However, as of Q4 2024, the U.S. still relies heavily on imports, with most of its lithium coming from Chile and Argentina.

lithium imports 2024
Source: S&P Global

Industry leaders at the conference stressed the importance of new extraction technologies to meet future demand. An expert noted that lithium-metal batteries are 10x more powerful than lithium-ion batteries. This could change the game. They highlighted how waste lithium metal from industry could help build a circular supply chain.

Scalability remains a significant challenge, however. Companies are putting money into resource validation projects. They’re also expanding lithium extraction facilities to produce 20,000 tons each year.

The focus is now on producing lithium at a large scale. The aim is for sustainable sourcing methods to keep the lithium market stable in the long run. These insights reinforce the need for technological advancements, government support, and recycling initiatives to build a more resilient lithium industry.

This is where the unique technology of a company promising to optimize lithium production and make it eco-friendly comes in. 

François-Michel Colomar, Head of International Development at Adionics, shares insights on lithium extraction. He discusses challenges and opportunities, pricing trends, and how new technologies shape the industry’s future.  

What Factors Drive the 2025 Lithium Market Recovery?

After a turbulent 2024, the lithium market is showing early signs of recovery in 2025. Colomar attributes this rebound to the increasing demand from EV manufacturers and energy storage providers. 

François-Michel Colomar: “As global policies push for electrification and clean energy adoption, the need for lithium continues to grow. Furthermore, advancements in extraction technologies, such as Direct Lithium Extraction (DLE), are improving efficiency and reducing environmental impact. These technological improvements, combined with increased investments in domestic lithium production, are helping stabilize the market.”

Despite past price corrections, Colomar remains optimistic about sustained growth, driven by ongoing investments in sustainable lithium production.

Lithium Price Projections and Market Forces

Looking ahead, lithium prices are expected to climb to between around $15,000 and $20,000 per ton by 2028. Colomar provided insights into what key market forces will contribute to this growth. 

François-Michel Colomar: “The projected price increase of lithium is largely driven by the rising demand for EV batteries and energy storage solutions. Global lithium consumption is expected to surpass supply in the coming years, putting upward pressure on prices. 

He also highlights the role of efficient and sustainable extraction technologies in stabilizing the market while meeting increasing demand. The push for local lithium production and recycling initiatives will be crucial in reducing reliance on traditional mining operations.

The Role of New Extraction Technologies

Innovative extraction technologies are revolutionizing the lithium industry, offering more sustainable and cost-effective alternatives to traditional methods. One such advancement is DLE, which allows for selective lithium extraction with minimal environmental impact.

François-Michel Colomar: “Unlike traditional lithium mining, which relies on evaporation ponds and hard rock mining, DLE offers a more efficient and environmentally friendly alternative. It allows for higher lithium recovery rates, reduces water usage, and minimizes ecological disruption. At Adionics, our technology achieves lithium recoveries of up to 98%, making it a game-changer in sustainable lithium production.”

Adionics’ Position in the Lithium Industry

Adionics is playing a key role in advancing sustainable lithium production and battery recycling. Its technology enables the extraction of high-purity lithium from battery black mass, addressing a major challenge in the recycling process. 

Colomar emphasized their unique position in the broader lithium and battery recycling landscape.

François-Michel Colomar: “By providing a domestic alternative to overseas processing, we are strengthening the local supply chain and reducing dependence on newly mined lithium. Our approach supports a truly circular economy, ensuring that lithium resources are efficiently reused.”

Impact of EV Demand on Lithium Supply and Pricing

With global EV sales projected to reach 54.7 million units by 2030, the demand for lithium is expected to soar. Colomar predicts that this surge will create supply chain pressures, potentially leading to price fluctuations.

global EV - electric vehicle sales

François-Michel Colomar: “The rapid expansion of the EV market will undoubtedly put pressure on lithium supply chains. While increased production capacity and improved extraction methods will help balance supply and demand, the industry must also focus on recycling to supplement primary lithium sources. We anticipate some price volatility, but long-term trends indicate continued growth in lithium prices as demand outpaces supply.”

However, advancements in extraction technologies and recycling capabilities will help mitigate these challenges.

The Importance of Lithium Recycling

Recycling lithium is crucial in addressing supply chain constraints and reducing environmental impacts. Tofanni highlighted this while detailing how their technology helps in this way.

François-Michel Colomar: “With demand projected to exceed supply by 2029, recycling offers a way to recover valuable materials and reduce reliance on newly mined lithium. Adionics’ technology allows for high-purity lithium extraction from recycled batteries without producing toxic waste. This advancement is crucial in creating a closed-loop system where lithium can be reused efficiently.”

Balancing Rapid Lithium Production with Sustainability

The lithium industry faces the challenge of balancing rapid production with sustainable practices. Colomar emphasizes the need for efficient extraction technologies that minimize environmental harm.

François-Michel Colomar: “Sustainability must be a top priority. Technologies like DLE provide a solution by allowing for high lithium recovery rates without the negative environmental impact of traditional mining.”

Adionics’ lithium extraction process boosts recovery rates and purity. It also cuts water use and removes toxic by-products. These innovations enable the industry to scale up production while maintaining environmental responsibility.

Future Trends in the Lithium and Battery Industry

Looking beyond 2030, Colomar foresees major shifts in the lithium and battery industries. 

François-Michel Colomar: “First, we expect a greater emphasis on recycling and circular economy practices. Second, advancements in battery technology, such as solid-state batteries, could reduce reliance on lithium-ion cells. Lastly, the industry will see increased efforts to localize lithium supply chains, reducing geopolitical risks and ensuring stable access to this critical mineral.”

Adionics is at the forefront of these changes, driving innovation in lithium extraction and recycling. 

Lithium’s Role in the Clean Energy Transition

Lithium remains a key enabler of the clean energy transition, powering EVs and energy storage systems. As the world moves toward net-zero emissions, lithium demand will continue to grow.

François-Michel Colomar highlights the importance of integrating sustainable extraction and recycling methods to ensure a reliable lithium supply. By investing in innovative technologies, the industry can support the global shift to clean energy while minimizing environmental impacts.

The 2025 lithium market presents both challenges and opportunities. Rising demand, evolving extraction technologies, and a growing focus on sustainability will shape the industry’s future.

The post Lithium Market Insight 2025: Price Recovery, EV Demand, and the Future of Extraction – Exclusive Interview appeared first on Carbon Credits.

Continue Reading

Carbon Footprint

Designing an Insetting Program: A Step-by-Step Playbook for Procurement

Published

on

Insetting program design starts with your supplier map. The carbon claim comes much later.

Consider a coffee procurement team that funds a farm intervention before checking its sourcing data. The supplier aggregates coffee lots from several regions. The buyer lacks farm-level traceability. Another purchaser expects to report the same outcome. A more attractive project brochure solves none of these problems.

If the distinction between a value-chain intervention and a purchased credit is still open, read CCC’s Insetting vs Offsetting guide before you set the brief.

Insetting program design begins with the purchasing relationship and works outward. You need to decide 1) where an intervention belongs, 2) what business problem it addresses, 3) who pays for it, 4) how results will be measured, and 5) what the evidence will let you say about them. This five-step playbook turns that sequence into a procurement plan.

Step 1: Insetting program design starts with supplier mapping

Start with the commodities that matter most to your Scope 3 inventory and sourcing continuity. Ask finance for spend by supplier, sustainability for the emissions baseline, and category managers for origin and volume records. Then identify which suppliers can trace material to a jurisdiction, sourcing region, producer group, or individual land-management unit.

The level of traceability affects what you can account for. Under the GHG Protocol Land Sector and Removals Standard, the spatial boundary for purchased land-based products depends on the traceability associated with each volume. Farm-specific factors or removals require physical traceability through an acceptable chain-of-custody model. A contract with a tier-one trader, by itself, does not establish a link to the farms behind its deliveries.[1]

Build a first-pass table with five columns: commodity and annual volume; supplier and origin; current traceability level; land-use and production risks; and the business owner who can change the purchasing terms. Mark missing data plainly. A blank cell is cheaper to fix before a program starts than after a claim is drafted.

If your company sets an SBTi Forest, Land and Agriculture target (FLAG), keep its land-related target boundary separate from energy and industry emissions. The current FLAG guidance also requires relevant companies to assess primary deforestation-linked commodities in their value chains.[2]

Step 2: Choose a commodity and jurisdiction for a pilot

Select one supply corridor where the sourcing connection can be established and procurement has a reason to stay. A useful pilot has repeat purchases, suppliers willing to share records, an intervention matched to a diagnosed problem, and a defined plan to measure the result. Carbon potential alone is a poor selection rule if the supplier cannot deliver the crop your business needs.

Compare candidate regions on land-use risk, supplier concentration, local rights and tenure, the availability of baseline data, and exposure to drought, erosion, or forest conversion. Check the relevant legal requirements separately. A nature project does not satisfy a due-diligence obligation merely because it has a carbon method attached.

Consider a coffee buyer sourcing from two districts. In the first, producer-group records identify the farms, while recent dry seasons have increased rejected green coffee lots. In the second, deliveries pass through several intermediaries and farm origins are unknown. Pilot shade management in the first district, with local agronomic advice and quality checks built into the plan. The buyer can trace purchases there and test the intervention against a defined sourcing problem.

Use a short decision memo to record why the selected corridor beats the alternatives, what remains uncertain, and what would stop the pilot. That memo is the first control against a project drifting toward whatever happens to photograph well.

Step 3: Design the supplier engagement and commercial model

The intervention needs an owner on each side of the contract. Decide who supplies planting material or training, who maintains the practice, who bears the cost if a harvest disappoints, and how long the buyer expects to purchase from participating suppliers. Where smallholders participate, budget cash flow and technical support for practices that offer a later return.

Put these terms in a supplier agreement or pilot addendum. It should cover eligible farms and volumes, consent to data collection, access for monitoring, any land or carbon rights that matter, benefit sharing, and what happens if the purchasing relationship ends. Ask local counsel and producer representatives to review the arrangement. The Accountability Framework is a useful reference for supply-chain work involving forests, ecosystems, and human rights.[3]

Avoid assigning an automatic carbon benefit to the buyer. The contract should say which party has the right to report each outcome, how overlapping claims will be checked, and how any issued credits will be handled. A reduction reported in a buyer’s inventory cannot simply be sold for someone else’s offset claim without an accounting review. SBTi FLAG guidance excludes purchased credits used as offsets from near-term FLAG target achievement.[2]

Set commercial measures beside environmental ones: delivered volume, rejection rate, supplier retention, and procurement cost. They tell you whether the program works as a supply-chain investment, even if carbon accounting takes longer to resolve.

Step 4: Build monitoring, reporting, and verification before rollout

Agree on the baseline and data flow before paying for a full rollout. Identify the land units or sourcing regions in scope, the practices that change, the records suppliers already keep, and the additional measurements the program requires. Decide which data can come from field visits, transaction records, or remote sensing, and who checks each source.

For carbon, separate three questions. Did the practice happen? Did emissions or removals change under an applicable method? Can the buyer attribute a defensible share to its purchased goods without double counting? The GHG Protocol’s 2026 guidance includes dedicated chapters on spatial boundaries, data and methods, evaluating actions, credited outcomes, and assurance.[1] These are distinct jobs. A photograph of a planted tree answers only part of the first.

CCC’s MRV and Additionality article explains the separate evidence questions a project reviewer will ask.

Create an evidence file for every reporting period: dated supplier and farm records, purchase volumes, methods and emission factors, uncertainty, quality checks, and changes from the baseline. Specify who can challenge the data and how corrections are recorded. If a project also seeks credit certification, keep project accounting and corporate inventory accounting separate. The GHG Protocol says its land standard focuses on entity-level inventories and does not set the rules for credit certification.[4]

Start with the minimum viable measurement design that can survive review. Add complexity when the pilot tells you which data actually changes a decision.

Step 5: Decide what can be reported and claimed

Insetting program design needs reporting rules before the marketing copy. Procurement, sustainability, finance, and legal should agree on four distinct outputs: operational performance; observed land or nature outcomes; inventory effects, if the accounting criteria are met; and any separately issued credits. One dashboard can display them, but they should not share a single unqualified headline.

SBTi FLAG guidance allows certain land-based removals within a company’s operations or supply chain to contribute to FLAG pathways, subject to criteria including permanence, traceability, data quality, and allocation. It does not allow purchased offsets to meet near-term FLAG targets.[2] Eligibility therefore depends on evidence and the applicable target rules, not on calling an activity “insetting.”

Draft a claims register. For each proposed sentence, record the period, boundary, data owner, calculation method, reviewer, and whether the result is measured, estimated, or still a goal. If the evidence supports only “we funded a pilot with 200 farms,” say that. Do not turn a funding fact into a verified emissions reduction.

What good looks like by year three

Treat year three as a review point, not a promised payback date. A mature pilot should have mapped participating supply volumes, a stable supplier agreement, a repeatable data collection process, and a comparison of commercial and environmental results against the baseline. It should also have a documented answer for outcomes that cannot be included in the buyer’s inventory.

Scale only where the pilot improves a sourcing decision and the evidence can follow the product. If neither condition holds, redesign the intervention or change the corridor. A disciplined program can conclude that a site is unsuitable. That is useful procurement intelligence.

Discuss your insetting program with CCC

Carbon Credit Capital designs nature-based supply chain investments around sourcing needs and measurable sustainability outcomes. Schedule a consultation with our carbon and sustainability experts to map your tier-one supplier network, FLAG exposure, and first pilot decision.

Sources

[1] GHG Protocol, Land Sector and Removals Standard, version 1.1, and companion Guidance, June 2026: https://ghgprotocol.org/land-sector-and-removals-standard ; https://ghgprotocol.org/land-sector-and-removals-guidance

[2] Science Based Targets initiative, Forest, Land and Agriculture Science-Based Target-Setting Guidance, version 1.2, March 2026, especially pp. 16–17, 37, and 41: https://sciencebasedtargets.org/resources/files/SBTiFLAGGuidance.pdf

[3] Accountability Framework initiative, Accountability Framework and guidance for companies: https://accountability-framework.org/

[4] GHG Protocol, Frequently Asked Questions: Land Sector and Removals Standard, questions 10 and 18: https://ghgprotocol.org/blog/frequently-asked-questions-land-sector-and-removals-lsr-standard

Continue Reading

Carbon Footprint

The Strategic Case for Nature-Based Carbon Investments

Published

on

Nature-based carbon investments deserve consideration when they address a specific business dependency and produce outcomes you can measure. Imagine Moonbucks, a global coffee roaster planning next season’s espresso blend. It is considering natural Grade 4 coffee from Jimma, in southwestern Oromia, Ethiopia. Its sourcing decisions affect the roasting schedule and the cash tied up in coffee purchases. Moonbucks needs to understand which measures could protect that supply, what they would cost and how it would judge the results.

1. Define the sourcing problem before choosing a project

Moonbucks needs a dependable component for its espresso blend. Its procurement team wants continuity of volume and an agreed cup profile. Replacing a shipment at short notice could require new sample approval and changes to the blend, and given the schedules for cultivation, processing, and freight delivery, is practically impossible. Moonbucks needs to get this right, and its initial concern is inconsistent deliveries. It commissions an assessment of the supplying farms and post-harvest chain. The questions cover land condition, harvest availability and whether drying or storage problems are affecting saleable lots.

This distinction changes the investment brief. A tree-planting proposal cannot be assumed to fix drying problems. Better storage cannot restore eroded land. The team must establish which problem exists before selecting the response.

CCC’s guide to finding nature-based solutions in your supply chain explains where to look. Here, the next task is to turn a broad concern into a testable proposal.

2. Develop nature-based carbon investments around the actual supply chain

The assessment would trace Moonbucks’ purchases back through the exporter and supplying producer groups. Which farms supply the contracted lots? Who controls land-management decisions? How long does the buyer expect to maintain the purchasing relationship?

Furthermore, Jimma natural Grade 4 cannot be treated as interchangeable with every Ethiopian coffee. Moonbucks would need to test any substitute against its own blend and quality requirements.

Suppose Moonbucks’ assessment identifies an opportunity to maintain shade trees and restore vegetation along exposed streambanks. The IPCC describes agroforestry as a way to store carbon in vegetation and soil, with potential benefits for erosion control and water quality.1 Moonbucks would need local advice on species, growing conditions and maintenance before deciding how these measures fit its sourcing plan.

The proposal now has a defined sourcing connection and a candidate intervention. The next steps are to test its effect on production, assess carbon eligibility and build the financial case.

3. Compare the proposal with other ways to protect supply

WBCSD’s Nature-based Solutions Blueprint recommends comparing nature-based options with other responses across their benefits and costs.2 For Moonbucks, that means evaluating the landscape proposal alongside drying improvements, storage controls and alternative sourcing arrangements.

The product’s natural-process designation matters. Moonbucks should examine the drying and dry-milling chain alongside land conditions. Its team would check storage practices, contamination risks and incoming-lot quality to see whether problems arise before or after the coffee leaves the farms.

The revised proposal might combine land stewardship with separate post-harvest controls. Each component needs its own purpose and budget. A sustainability label should not obscure which activity is expected to solve which problem.

The project develops as the evidence improves. Its scope should follow the diagnosis rather than preserve the first idea unchanged.

4. Establish what the carbon outcome could count toward

Moonbucks’ sustainability team now tests the proposed carbon case separately from the sourcing case. Is the objective a measurable change in Moonbucks’ value-chain emissions, verified credits for separate voluntary use, or distinct outcomes under carefully defined arrangements?

Scope 3 covers value-chain emissions. A purchasing relationship alone does not prove that a farm intervention can be included in Moonbucks’ inventory. The team needs an applicable accounting method, defensible boundaries and evidence supporting attribution.

SBTi’s FLAG Guidance (forest, land and agriculture), version 1.2, says purchased credits used as offsets cannot meet near-term FLAG or energy and industry targets. Eligible land-based removals are subject to accounting requirements.3 Moonbucks needs to test its proposal against those rules before including an outcome in its targets.

For Moonbucks’ Jimma proposal, maintaining existing trees and establishing new vegetation could involve different carbon questions. Specialists must examine the baseline and additionality, meaning what changes because the project proceeds. They must also assess measurement and the risk that stored carbon is lost. CCC’s MRV and additionality article introduces those tests.

Until that work is complete, Moonbucks should not budget an assumed Scope 3 reduction or credit-sale receipt. Direct emissions reductions remain the priority.

5. Build a financial case that survives weaker assumptions

Moonbucks’ finance team would now build a multi-year budget. UNEP’s State of Finance for Nature 2023 compares current finance with the investment needed to meet climate, biodiversity and land-restoration goals.4 The company would cost its proposed activities, farmer participation and ongoing monitoring. Verification, where required, is a separate expense. Maintenance and responsibility for replacing failed plantings must remain visible after the initial establishment budget ends.

Operational benefits need equally careful treatment. If fewer rejected lots reduce emergency purchasing, count that saving once. Do not add “supply resilience” as another financial benefit when it represents the same avoided cost.

Moonbucks should compare a base case with slower benefits, higher implementation costs and no carbon revenue. It should also distinguish production outcomes from quality and shipment outcomes. A single good harvest would not prove that the landscape intervention caused better delivery performance.

A project can remain worth funding even when its carbon case needs more work. That decision must rest on the operational evidence and the company’s objectives, without unsupported environmental claims.

6. Fund a pilot with a clear expansion decision

Moonbucks’ first approval would fund a bounded pilot, rather than commit the entire sourcing program. Before spending, Moonbucks would agree on participating farms, responsibilities and the evidence needed at review.

Its scorecard could track farmer participation, implementation costs and plant survival, alongside accepted coffee volumes and lot-quality results. Carbon measurements would follow the selected method. Farm-level traceability must connect the intervention to the actual sourcing relationship.

Suppose Moonbucks’ review later finds that storage changes explain most quality improvements, while the land measures need longer observation. Those findings would shape the next decision: expand the proven component, adjust the landscape work or pause further spending. They would not justify crediting all improvements to tree planting.

This gives nature-based carbon investments a practical place in a multi-year strategy. Funding increases as the evidence supports it, and the project can change direction before a larger commitment.

Discuss a sourcing opportunity with CCC

Carbon Credit Capital’s nature-based supply-chain investment service uses its Dual-Value Model to examine supply-chain economics alongside potential sustainability outcomes.

Schedule a consultation to discuss your sourcing exposure and the questions to resolve before allocating capital.

Sources

  1. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Climate Change 2022: Mitigation of Climate Change, Chapter 7, Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Uses, section 7.4.3.3 (Agroforestry).
  2. World Business Council for Sustainable Development (WBCSD), Nature-based Solutions Blueprint, 5 June 2024.
  3. Science Based Targets initiative (SBTi), Forest, Land and Agriculture Science-Based Target-Setting Guidance, version 1.2, March 2026, section 3.1.4, pp. 37–38.
  4. United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), State of Finance for Nature 2023, 2023.
Continue Reading

Carbon Footprint

How to buy plastic credits, and what to check before you do

Published

on

A plastic credit funds the collection of plastic waste in places where no formal system exists to collect it. Each credit represents a measured, independently audited quantity of plastic taken out of the environment or returned to use, tracked on a public registry.

Continue Reading