Connect with us

Published

on

COPPER

Copper prices surged on Monday as traders anticipated the outcome of potentially high U.S. import tariffs. The three-month copper price on the London Metal Exchange (LME) climbed to $9,925 per metric ton, building on last week’s gains after reaching a five-month high.

As per Bloomberg, Mercuria revealed that around 500,000 tons of copper are now headed to U.S. ports—much higher than the usual 70,000 tons per month. This spike is directly linked to expectations of new tariffs.

Bloomberg: Copper Prices Soar on Trump Tariff Speculation

Bloomberg said that copper futures on the London Metal Exchange jumped 1.9%, crossing $10,000 per ton. In New York, copper prices on Comex climbed 1.4% close to a record high before dropping back.

Since January, Comex prices have surged past international benchmarks as traders bet on U.S. import tariffs. On Monday, the price gap hit a new record of over $1,400 per ton, surpassing February’s peak after Trump announced a Commerce Department investigation into possible tariffs.

copper price
Source: Bloomberg

Explaining further, this investigation into copper imports is fueling market uncertainty. With new tariffs expected on April 2, traders are remaining cautious. This shift in supply could push prices to record highs while creating shortages in China and other markets.

Reuters highlighted Kostas Bintas, former co-head of metals at Trafigura Group, predictions on copper. He warned that global supplies could tighten sharply. Similarly, Goldman Sachs predicts that U.S. copper imports could rise by 50% to 100% in the coming months as buyers rush to secure material before tariffs hit.

Impact on the Economy

The rush of copper imports and looming tariffs could reshape industries worldwide. Here’s what industry pundits are expecting:

  • Record Prices: With 500,000 tons of copper flooding the U.S., prices could surpass $10,000 per ton. This would raise costs for construction, electronics, and electric vehicles.
  • U.S. Economic Shift: The government aims to boost domestic copper production, reducing reliance on foreign metals. This could help U.S. mining and manufacturing but also raise domestic costs.
  • Higher Inflation: Rising copper prices would increase production costs, leading to inflation across multiple sectors. Consumers already facing high living costs may feel the strain.
  • Global Supply Chain Issues: With more copper heading to the U.S., shortages could hit China, the world’s largest copper consumer. This could disrupt industries reliant on steady copper supplies.
  • Investment Changes: Companies might stock up on extra copper or look for other materials to avoid the impact of price changes. This uncertainty could lead to more investment in U.S. copper production and new alternatives.

What’s Behind the Copper Crunch?

Experts predict a 320,000-ton copper supply deficit in 2025 as demand outpaces supply. A sharp drop in U.S. copper scrap exports—crucial for a third of global production—is worsening the shortfall.

The U.S. is increasingly relying on imports to sustain the production of copper which is a highly critical metal for EVs, military tech, semiconductors, and consumer goods. Meanwhile, demand is soaring due to the rise of EVs, AI advancements, and renewable energy expansion.

Furthermore, China, setting a 5% GDP growth target, is rolling out stimulus measures to boost domestic consumption, further intensifying copper demand. Copper futures surged 12% as traders speculated that the U.S. might impose tariffs on base metal imports. In response, suppliers rushed shipments to America while tightening supply at other places.

RioTimes revealed an interesting point made by Nick Snowdon, head of metals research at Mercuria. He called this trend an “under-appreciated shock” to global markets.

Rio Tinto Bets on U.S. Copper

Amid all these developments, WSJ reported that Rio Tinto plans to expand its copper investments in the U.S. It operates the Kennecott copper mine in Utah and owns a majority stake in the Resolution Copper project in Arizona.

The company sees new opportunities after President Trump signed the executive order to speed up permitting and boost government funding for mineral projects.

Katie Jackson head of the company’s copper business confirmed this news by noting,

“We have a strong desire to invest more in the U.S., particularly in copper,” 

Copper Demand and Supply Forecast

Copper demand is set to rise sharply due to the clean energy transition.

IEA projects, cleantech applications, such as EVs and renewable energy, will drive demand from 5,380 kt in 2021 to 16,343 kt in 2040. Meanwhile, traditional uses like construction and electrical wiring will remain stable, reaching 20,036 kt by 2040.

Recycled copper supply will exceed double, from 4,123 kt in 2021 to 10,006 kt in 2040. Despite this growth, mining will still play a key role, with primary supply requirements peaking at 25,249 kt in 2030 before stabilizing.

The rising demand and supply chain concentration, primarily from China, might push for diversified sources and expanded recycling efforts.

copper demand and supply
Source: IEA

BHP, the largest mining company, predicts that copper demand from the energy transition sector will rise from 7% to 23% by 2050, according to a Kitco report.

  • Copper demand from the digital sector, including data centers, 5G, and AI, is also set to grow from 1% (current) to 6% by 2050.
  • Copper use in transportation will increase from 11% in 2021 to 20% by 2040. This rise is due to more electric vehicles on the road.
copper demand
Source: BHP

On the supply side, BHP highlighted a major challenge. The average copper ore grade has dropped by about 40% since 1991. In the next ten years, half of the world’s copper supply will face problems. Aging mines and lower ore quality will be major issues.

  • More significantly, the mining giant estimates that the industry will need $250 billion in new investments to close the growing gap between supply and demand.

BHP’s chief commercial officer Rag Udd.

“As we look towards 2050, we foresee global copper demand increasing by 70% to reach 50 million tonnes annually. This will be driven by copper’s role in both current and emerging technologies, as well as the world’s decarbonization goals.”

The U.S. is rushing to import copper ahead of possible tariffs, but the impact goes beyond supply relief. Higher prices, global supply chain disruptions, and shifting economic strategies could follow. Businesses and investors must stay ready for what’s next.

The post U.S. Copper Rush: Imports Flood in and Prices Soar as Trump Tariff Looms appeared first on Carbon Credits.

Continue Reading

Carbon Footprint

Insetting vs Offsetting: Which Actually Counts Toward Your Scope 3 Targets

Published

on

The accounting differences that decide whether your nature investment shows up in inventory, in BVCM, or nowhere at all.

The question reaches a procurement team about three weeks before the next sustainability committee meeting. Someone has read about insetting. Someone else has just signed off on an offset purchase. The CSO wants to know if the two are interchangeable. The answer is no, and the GHG Protocol Land Sector and Removals Standard is the reason why.

This article walks through what each term means at audit-grade specificity, what the standards actually say about how each gets counted, and how to decide which tool fits which target. The insetting vs offsetting question is one of the most-searched in corporate climate strategy, and one of the most poorly answered. By the end of this piece, you should be able to brief a committee on the difference without notes.

The two definitions, in plain English

Offsetting means buying carbon credits generated outside your value chain and retiring them against your residual emissions. The reduction happens somewhere else, financed by you, and the credit is the receipt.

Insetting means investing in emission reductions or removals inside your own value chain, typically with suppliers, where the reduction is directly linked to the products and services you buy. The reduction happens inside the boundary of your Scope 3 inventory, and the accounting treatment is fundamentally different.

The shorthand from the University of Oxford’s Nature-based Insetting Initiative is useful: insetting is what you do with the supply chain you have; offsetting is what you do with the supply chain you do not have.

What the GHG Protocol Land Sector Standard actually says

The GHG Protocol Land Sector and Removals Standard, finalised in 2024 after a multi-year pilot, sets the rules for how land-based emission reductions and removals enter corporate inventories. The Standard distinguishes between inventory accounting (Scope 1, 2, and 3) and project or intervention accounting (a separate methodology for crediting).

For insetting, the practical implication is that supplier-level interventions, when properly measured and attributed, can reduce your Scope 3 category 1 (purchased goods and services) emissions in your inventory. The reduction is not a credit retired against the inventory; it is a lower inventory number, period.

For offsetting, the credit is retired separately. It can be reported as a contribution toward a net-zero claim under the SBTi Beyond Value Chain Mitigation framework or as part of a VCMI Carbon Integrity claim, but it does not lower the inventory number.

A practical consequence: if your Science Based Target requires a 50% absolute reduction in Scope 3 emissions by 2030, insetting moves you toward the target. Offsetting does not. This single point of difference reshapes the procurement decision.

When insetting counts toward Scope 3 (and when it does not)

Insetting counts toward Scope 3 only when several conditions are met:

  • The intervention must occur with an entity in your value chain.
  • The emissions reduction or removal must be measured against a defensible baseline.
  • The reduction must be attributed to your share of that supplier’s output, not double-counted with other buyers.
  • It must follow the inventory accounting rules in the GHG Protocol Land Sector Standard, not the project accounting rules used to generate credits.

The most common failure mode is double counting. If your supplier sells the same reduction as a credit on the voluntary market and also reports it to you as a Scope 3 reduction, the math breaks. The Standard requires you to address this risk, typically by purchasing and retiring the supplier-issued credit as part of your inventory or by contractual provisions that prevent the supplier from selling the reduction twice.

When insetting does not count toward Scope 3: when the intervention sits with a supplier you do not buy from, when the baseline is not defensible, when the attribution is unclear, or when the documentation does not survive audit. Those cases default to Beyond Value Chain Mitigation, which is still useful but operates on a different ledger.

The procurement and supplier engagement question

Insetting is harder than offsetting. That is the unfashionable truth most buyers eventually confront. Offsetting is a transaction; insetting is a relationship.

To run an insetting program, you need supplier mapping precise enough to know which farms or facilities sit at which Scope 3 boundary. You need an engagement model that gets suppliers to participate, which usually requires multi-year commitments and shared economics. You need an MRV architecture that measures the right things and produces audit-ready documentation. And you need a contractual structure that prevents double counting and protects both sides.

The trade-off you receive in return is significant. Reductions count against your inventory rather than your residual. Supplier relationships deepen, which protects sourcing continuity. Yield and quality improvements often follow regenerative interventions, which reduces your input cost over time. And the regulatory file, under CSRD, CSDDD, EUDR, and the SBTi FLAG Guidance, is materially stronger.

Choosing the right tool for the right target

A practical decision rule. If your target is a science-based Scope 3 reduction and you operate in a FLAG sector or source FLAG commodities, insetting is the structurally correct tool. If your target is a net-zero claim that includes neutralising hard-to-abate residual emissions outside your value chain, BVCM via high-integrity offsets is the structurally correct tool. Most companies with material Scope 3 exposure need both, in different proportions, sequenced over time.

The sequencing matters. Insetting takes longer to stand up but produces a permanent reduction in the inventory. Offsetting can be transacted faster but does not change the inventory and now sits under tighter claim restrictions. Treat them as complementary tools with different jobs, not as substitutes. The Accountability Framework Initiative and the IUCN Global Standard for Nature-based Solutions both provide useful guardrails for the insetting side, with biodiversity, human rights, and benefit-sharing requirements that go beyond carbon math.

If you are mapping a Scope 3 reduction roadmap and need to scope which interventions count toward your inventory versus which sit in Beyond Value Chain Mitigation, the carbon and sustainability experts at Carbon Credit Capital can help you structure a nature-based supply chain investment program that fits your FLAG exposure, your target architecture, and your audit horizon. Schedule a consultation.

Continue Reading

Carbon Footprint

Net zero needs nature: a carbon credit guide

Published

on

Net zero is often described as a balancing act: cut what you can, account for the rest, and reach zero on the ledger. That framing is useful, but it leaves something out. It treats every tonne of carbon as interchangeable and every route to zero as equally sound, while the science tells a more specific story.

Continue Reading

Carbon Footprint

Deforestation in Malawi: causes and solutions

Published

on

Malawi has lost a striking share of its forests over the past three decades. Woodlands that once covered well over a third of the country now cover less than a quarter, and the pressure on what remains is increasing. Behind those figures sit two practical questions: what is driving the loss, and what reverses it?

Continue Reading

Trending

Copyright © 2022 BreakingClimateChange.com