During his three-year tenure as Japan’s prime minister, Fumio Kishida’s created the Asia Zero Emission Community (AZEC) to, in his words, “help Asia decarbonise together”.
But a year and a half after AZEC was formally launched, a new report by the international research organization Zero Carbon Analytics shows that one-third of agreements between Japan and AZEC member countries promote or prolong fossil fuels.
Of the 158 projects financed by Japan under this initiative, 56 include fossil fuel technologies such as natural gas, co-firing ammonia with fossil fuel in power plants, hydrogen produced with fossil fuels, carbon capture and storage (CCS), and e-fuels.
A report by Zero Carbon Analytics shows the projects signed under the AZEC initiative leave renewable energy on the sidelines and favour technologies that promote or prolong fossil fuels. (Photo: Zero Carbon Analytics)
The alleged climate benefits of these technologies are hotly disputed. While some studies have claimed gas is a less polluting fossil fuel than the coal used for electricity in much of Southeast Asia, a study published last week suggested that it can actually be more polluting, especially when it is imported across the sea in a liquid form called LNG.
Ammonia co-firing involves burning ammonia alongside coal in coal-fired power plants. While this reduces the amount of coal burned, critics note that the plants still burn mostly coal and that the co-firing can encourage governments to allow the coal-fired power plant to keep operating longer. Similarly, carbon capture and storage technology captures just some of a power plant’s emissions and can encourage the authorities to keep the plant open longer.
Ammonia, hydrogen and e-fuels are all fuels which can be made in more polluting ways using fossil fuels or cleaner ways with renewable electricity.
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AZEC was launched in 2023 to advance climate cooperation in Asia, with Japan playing a central role. Kishida likened it to an Asian version of the European Coal and Steel Community – a predecessor to the European Union. Members include most countries in Southeast Asia and Australia.
But Japan’s fossil fuel investments – particularly gas projects – through AZEC are inconsistent with its pledge to stop overseas financing for unabated fossil fuels, experts told Climate Home News.
At their 2022 meeting in Berlin, G7 leaders all agreed to “end new direct public support for the international unabated fossil fuel energy sector by the end of 2022, except in limited circumstances clearly defined by each country that are consistent with a 1.5 °C warming limit and the goals of the Paris Agreement”.
Report author Amy Kong said: “Relying on these technologies is a slower and more expensive path to decarbonisation for the region, and risks derailing national power sector emissions targets set out in the International Energy Agency’s 2050 net zero scenario.”
Shigeru Ishiba, Japan’s recently appointed prime minister, has suggested the country will prioritise regional cooperation and has argued in favour of renewable energy. However, there is still little information on the future of AZEC under his new government.
Zero emissions community
Japan’s goal with the AZEC initiative was to invest public funds from its climate transition bonds to “create a huge new decarbonisation market in Asia”, former PM Kishida said during the community’s launch.
Through AZEC, member countries could apply for Japanese funding for energy projects. More than 150 projects have been approved between the Japanese government or government-backed institutions and their AZEC counterparts, the Zero Carbon Analytics report shows.
Initial investments were administered via a host of Japan’s government-backed institutions, including the environment and the trade ministries. Many of Japan’s private-sector firms have also partnered with these public entities.
But according to Zero Carbon Analytics’ analysis, over one-third of those MOUs will promote fossil fuels or technologies that will prolong the use of fossil fuels. This threatens to lock-in coal and gas investments that may be difficult to reverse, the report says.
On the other hand, 54 MOUs signed under AZEC include renewables and electrification technologies, about a third of the total. These include solar PV power, wind, hydroelectric, geothermal, battery storage, electric vehicles, green hydrogen and ammonia, and waste management. But of these 54 agreements, only 11 include wind and solar.
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‘False solutions’
Non-governmental organizations across Asia have raised concerns that AZEC primarily promotes fossil-based technologies.
Ayumi Fukakusa, deputy executive director of Friends of the Earth Japan, told Climate Home that technologies like CCS, ammonia and biomass co-firing and LNG “only delay climate actions and prolong the life of fossil fuel infrastructure”. She added that “AZEC will further lock-in Asian partners in massive emissions and doesn’t support real decarbonization”.
Hanna Hakko, Japan-based senior associate of the E3G think tank argued that Japan’s AZEC initiative would “serve the region far better by enabling the growth of renewable energy”, which would make the country more energy independent and contribute to long-term emissions reductions.
Wicaksono Gitawan is an Energy Transition Associate and Project Manager at Indonesian nonprofit CERAH. He called AZEC a form of “green colonialism.”
Japan’s push for ammonia co-firing has also been criticized by other governments, most prominently by Canadian, UK, and German ministers during the 2023 G7 meeting.
‘Green colonialism’
Japan signed by far the most deals with the region’s most populous nation Indonesia, followed by Thailand and Malaysia. Historically, Japan has been the top source of infrastructure investment in Southeast Asia and spearheaded the creation of an Asian LNG market in the 1960s.
Japan’s government-backed financial institutions, such as the Japan Bank for International Cooperation, invested $93 billion in overseas oil and gas projects between 2013 and 2023. About $42 billion of that was in fossil fuels projects in Asiawhile just $9 billion was spent on clean energy over the same period.
Campaigners say the long-term financial benefits of AZEC are questionable. Fukakusa from Friends of Earth Japan said “most of the support made by the Japanese government in the past, especially for energy projects, are through loans,” which risk adding pressure on already debt-burdened economies in Southeast Asia.
According to a Wood Mackenzie analysis, the cost of electricity from utility-scale solar PV in Asia declined significantly over the last few years, while the costs of coal and gas generation increased. In 2023, renewables were 13% cheaper than conventional coal in Asia and are expected to be 32% cheaper by 2030.
(Reporting by Walter James, editing by Sebastian Rodriguez and Joe Lo)
The post Japan backs fossil fuels in Southeast Asian “zero emission” initiative appeared first on Climate Home News.
Japan backs fossil fuels in Southeast Asian “zero emission” initiative
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Gabrielle Dreyfus is chief scientist at the Institute for Governance and Sustainable Development, Thomas Röckmann is a professor of atmospheric physics and chemistry at Utrecht University, and Lena Höglund Isaksson is a senior research scholar at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.
This March scientists and policy makers will gather near the site in Italy where methane was first identified 250 years ago to share the latest science on methane and the policy and technology steps needed to rapidly cut methane emissions. The timing is apt.
As new tools transform our understanding of methane emissions and their sources, the evidence they reveal points to a single conclusion: Human-caused methane emissions are still rising, and global action remains far too slow.
This is the central finding of the latest Global Methane Status Report. Four years into the Global Methane Pledge, which aims for a 30% cut in global emissions by 2030, the good news is that the pledge has increased mitigation ambition under national plans, which, if fully implemented, could result in the largest and most sustained decline in methane emissions since the Industrial Revolution.
The bad news is this is still short of the 30% target. The decisive question is whether governments will move quickly enough to turn that bend into the steep decline required to pump the brake on global warming.
What the data really show
Assessing progress requires comparing three benchmarks: the level of emissions today relative to 2020, the trajectory projected in 2021 before methane received significant policy focus, and the level required by 2030 to meet the pledge.
The latest data show that global methane emissions in 2025 are higher than in 2020 but not as high as previously expected. In 2021, emissions were projected to rise by about 9% between 2020 and 2030. Updated analysis places that increase closer to 5%. This change is driven by factors such as slower than expected growth in unconventional gas production between 2020 and 2024 and lower than expected waste emissions in several regions.
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This updated trajectory still does not deliver the reductions required, but it does indicate that the curve is beginning to bend. More importantly, the commitments already outlined in countries’ Nationally Determined Contributions and Methane Action Plans would, if fully implemented, produce an 8% reduction in global methane emissions between 2020 and 2030. This would turn the current increase into a sustained decline. While still insufficient to reach the Global Methane Pledge target of a 30% cut, it would represent historical progress.
Solutions are known and ready
Scientific assessments consistently show that the technical potential to meet the pledge exists. The gap lies not in technology, but in implementation.
The energy sector accounts for approximately 70% of total technical methane reduction potential between 2020 and 2030. Proven measures include recovering associated petroleum gas in oil production, regular leak detection and repair across oil and gas supply chains, and installing ventilation air oxidation technologies in underground coal mines. Many of these options are low cost or profitable. Yet current commitments would achieve only one third of the maximum technically feasible reductions in this sector.
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Agriculture and waste also provide opportunities. Rice emissions can be reduced through improved water management, low-emission hybrids and soil amendments. While innovations in technology and practices hold promise in the longer term, near-term potential in livestock is more constrained and trends in global diets may counteract gains.
Waste sector emissions had been expected to increase more rapidly, but improvements in waste management in several regions over the past two decades have moderated this rise. Long-term mitigation in this sector requires immediate investment in improved landfills and circular waste systems, as emissions from waste already deposited will persist in the short term.
New measurement tools
Methane monitoring capacity has expanded significantly. Satellite-based systems can now identify methane super-emitters. Ground-based sensors are becoming more accessible and can provide real-time data. These developments improve national inventories and can strengthen accountability.
However, policy action does not need to wait for perfect measurement. Current scientific understanding of source magnitudes and mitigation effectiveness is sufficient to achieve a 30% reduction between 2020 and 2030. Many of the largest reductions in oil, gas and coal can be delivered through binding technology standards that do not require high precision quantification of emissions.
The decisive years ahead
The next 2 years will be critical for determining whether existing commitments translate into emissions reductions consistent with the Global Methane Pledge.
Governments should prioritise adoption of an effective international methane performance standard for oil and gas, including through the EU Methane Regulation, and expand the reach of such standards through voluntary buyers’ clubs. National and regional authorities should introduce binding technology standards for oil, gas and coal to ensure that voluntary agreements are backed by legal requirements.
One approach to promoting better progress on methane is to develop a binding methane agreement, starting with the oil and gas sector, as suggested by Barbados’ PM Mia Mottley and other leaders. Countries must also address the deeper challenge of political and economic dependence on fossil fuels, which continues to slow progress. Without a dual strategy of reducing methane and deep decarbonisation, it will not be possible to meet the Paris Agreement objectives.
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The next four years will determine whether available technologies, scientific evidence and political leadership align to deliver a rapid transition toward near-zero methane energy systems, holistic and equity-based lower emission agricultural systems and circular waste management strategies that eliminate methane release. These years will also determine whether the world captures the near-term climate benefits of methane abatement or locks in higher long-term costs and risks.
The Global Methane Status Report shows that the world is beginning to change course. Delivering the sharper downward trajectory now required is a test of political will. As scientists, we have laid out the evidence. Leaders must now act on it.
The post Curbing methane is the fastest way to slow warming – but we’re off the pace appeared first on Climate Home News.
Curbing methane is the fastest way to slow warming – but we’re off the pace
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