China’s coal demand is set to drop by 2027, more than cancelling out the effects of the Trump administration’s coal-friendly policies in the US, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).
Global coal demand is due to grow by 0.5% year-on-year to reach record levels in 2025, according to the latest figures in the IEA’s annual market report.
Yet this will be reversed over the next couple of years, as a faster-than-expected expansion of renewables in key Asian nations and “structural declines” in Europe push coal demand down, the agency says.
While US coal demand is set to continue falling, the decline will be slower than expected last year, due to new federal government efforts to support the fuel.
However, the IEA’s upward revision of an extra 38m tonnes (Mt) of US coal use in 2027 is dwarfed by an even larger 126Mt downward revision in China’s coal use.
‘Unusual trends’
Coal demand will reach 8,845Mt around the world in 2025. This is slightly (44Mt) higher than the IEA had forecast in its 2024 coal market report.
The agency notes some “unusual regional trends” impacting this growth, including a 37Mt year-on-year increase in US coal demand in 2025 to 516Mt. This is 59Mt (17%) higher than the IEA projected in 2024.
A new suite of measures under the Trump administration have supported the short-term use of coal, including the modernisation of existing coal plants and reopening shuttered ones.
EU coal use declined at a slower pace than expected due to lower wind and hydropower output, according to the IEA. Nevertheless, the bloc “continues its structural decline” in coal demand, driven by renewables expansion, carbon pricing and coal phaseout pledges.
India saw an unexpected dip in coal consumption in 2025, linked to a strong monsoon season that increased hydropower output and curbed electricity demand.
In China, which accounts for more than half of the world’s coal use, coal demand remained roughly unchanged between 2024 and 2025, the IEA says.
Demand drop
In its 2024 market report, the IEA projected a continued increase in global coal demand out to 2027. This was largely driven by China, which was on track to see its demand exceed 5,000Mt each year, up from 4939Mt in 2024.
In its latest forecast, the agency estimates that global coal demand will instead “plateau” in the coming years, “falling slightly by the end of the decade”.
Again, this is largely due to trends in China’s power sector, reflecting the “crowding-out” of coal from the grid by the nation’s “formidable renewables expansion” and “steady growth” of nuclear power.
(By contrast, last year clean-power sources were only expected to meet “most of” China’s rising electricity demand.)
The IEA estimates that China’s coal demand will drop to 4,879Mt by 2027 and continue falling to 4,772Mt by the end of the decade.
The global projection for 2027 is 149Mt (2%) lower than expected last year.
As the chart below shows, while US short-term coal demand is now expected to be higher than the IEA’s previous forecast, the drop in China more than makes up for this.
The projected dip in Chinese coal use is largely attributed to the “rapid expansion” of its renewable-energy capacity, the IEA notes. Renewables are soon set to provide a greater share of China’s electricity than coal, rising to 49% of generation by 2030, according to the report.
The Chinese government has set an ambition of peaking coal use before 2030.
While the IEA’s data suggests this goal will be met, the agency stresses that several factors “could turn the slight drop into a small increase”.
These include higher electricity demand, an increase in coal-to-chemicals projects and fluctuations in renewable-energy output due to weather conditions and other factors.
Meanwhile, India remains a “key driver of global coal demand”, but the new report also downgrades estimates for the nation’s future coal growth. The IEA forecasts that Indian coal demand will be 1,383Mt in 2027 – 39Mt (3%) lower than last year’s forecast.
This comes as a growing share of India’s electricity mix is provided by low-carbon power sources, with coal’s share set to decline from 70% in 2025 to 60% by 2030, according to the IEA.
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IEA: Declining coal demand in China set to outweigh Trump’s pro-coal policies
Climate Change
Gas Reservation Policy announcement a smokescreen to distract from calls for a fair tax on gas exports
Sydney, Thursday 7 May 2026 — Greenpeace has criticised the Albanese Government for trying to distract Australians who are calling for a fair tax on gas corporations, with an announcement of a gas reservation policy which has left more questions than answers
The Albanese Government today announced their new gas reservation policy, which will notionally require gas exporters to supply 20 per cent of their exports to the Australian market — but has left unresolved questions about how the reservation will operate in practice, and whether it will protect Australians from high gas prices and the environmental destruction that comes with new gas drilling projects.
On the same day as the Senate is due to release its report into the taxation of gas resources, the Government has also approved a new production license for Amplitude Energy to drill for offshore gas in waters near the Twelve Apostles in Victoria and released even more areas of pristine ocean off the coast of Victoria for gas drilling.
Joe Rafalowicz, Head of Climate and Energy at Greenpeace Australia Pacific, said: “This policy, which on paper makes gas corporations reserve 20 per cent of the gas they currently export, lacks any substantive detail, raising more questions than it answers.
“The only thing that is clear from this half-baked announcement is that the government is using it as a smokescreen to distract from the fact they are still refusing to heed the calls from the overwhelming majority of Australians, who are calling on them to tax gas exports properly.
“Announcing this policy just days before the budget and on the same day the gas tax inquiry report makes that crystal clear.
“On the very same day the Federal Government has also announced a petroleum production permit allowing Amplitude Energy to drill for offshore gas in waters near the Twelve Apostles in Victoria.
“New gas which risks our pristine ocean environment and climate is exactly the kind of destruction we should be avoiding by making gas exporters supply Australians first.“
-ENDS-
Media contact:
Lucy Keller on 0491 135 308 or lucy.keller@greenpeace.org
SYDNEY, Friday 8 May 2026 — In response to reports that the Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water will this year make a recommendation on Woodside’s Browse gas project, the following statement can be attributed to Hannah Schuch, senior campaigner at Greenpeace Australia Pacific:
“Woodside’s plan to drill for gas on the doorstep of Scott Reef is reckless and dangerous. The WA Environmental Protection Authority already made an initial finding that Woodside’s plan to drill at least 50 wells near Scott Reef, home to nesting sea turtles, endangered pygmy blue whales and other endangered species, posed unacceptable risks to the environment.
“There is no acceptable or safe way to drill for gas, dump carbon, or build industrial pipelines around the pristine Scott Reef. Environment Minister Murray Watt has a responsibility to protect the environment and put an end to this dangerous project. Minister Watt and the Albanese Labor government’s environmental credentials ride on protecting Scott Reef from Woodside’s pollution for good.
“Protecting Scott Reef by rejecting Woodside’s appalling Browse plans, that include the export of gas for which international demand is declining, would be a legacy moment for the Federal Labor government. As Australians, we love our island nation and our big blue backyard, and we expect our elected leaders to safeguard our oceans and reefs.
“Greenpeace is calling for Murray Watt to listen to the half a million Australians that have asked him to stop this nature and climate-wrecking project and protect Scott Reef for generations to come.”
-ENDS-
High-res images and footage of Scott Reef can be found here.
Emma Sangalli on 0431 513 465 or emma.sangalli@greenpeace.org
Greenpeace statement on Browse project’s federal assessment timeline
Climate Change
‘Self-serving tosh’: Woodside’s Browse gas would derail energy transition and wreck Scott Reef
SYDNEY, Monday 11 May 2026 — Greenpeace Australia Pacific has branded Woodside’s Browse gas report released to media today as being “so ludicrous it reads like satire” and a dangerous distraction from the urgent action needed to save Scott Reef and address soaring emissions.
The report states Woodside’s Browse offshore gas drilling project at Scott Reef would have no impact on Western Australia’s net zero targets, as the state was on track to miss them anyway.
Hannah Schuch, Senior Campaigner at Greenpeace Australia Pacific, said: “Woodside’s report is so ludicrous it reads like satire. It is nothing but the self-serving tosh expected from a multinational gas corporation exploiting the global energy crisis to drill for more expensive, volatile and polluting gas to export for profit.
“Claiming a massive carbon bomb would somehow help the net zero transition is delusional. If Woodside’s reckless Browse gas project went ahead, it would be one of the most polluting projects in the country and turn one of Australia’s last pristine oceanic reef systems, Scott Reef, into an industrial gas zone.
“The WA EPA already made an initial finding that Woodside’s plan to drill at least 50 wells near Scott Reef, home to nesting sea turtles, endangered pygmy blue whales and other endangered species, posed unacceptable risks to the environment.
“Most recently, independent scientific experts demonstrated that Woodside’s amended plans do nothing for the survival of these key threatened species found at Scott Reef but just tinker around the edges. For Woodside to flaunt these plans as a win for net zero, is flabbergasting and frankly insulting.
“Woodside continuously fails to deliver gas to West Australians. According to the DomGas Alliance less than 4% of gas from Woodside’s Pluto facility has been supplied to the local market — far short of the 15% requirement.
“The global energy crisis has laid bare the dangers of fossil fuel dependence. WA has access to world-class renewable energy resources, which modelling shows could power the state’s homes, hospitals and key industries with clean, cheap and affordable energy. WA has a choice: displace gas with renewables, or displace renewables with gas.
“Environment Minister Murray Watt has a responsibility to protect the environment and put an end to this dangerous project once and for all. Minister Watt and the Albanese government’s environmental credentials ride on protecting Scott Reef from Woodside’s dirty gas for good.
“Greenpeace is calling for Murray Watt to listen to the half a million Australians that have asked him to stop this nature and climate-wrecking project and protect Scott Reef for generations to come.”
-ENDS-
Media contact
Emma Sangalli on emma.sangalli@greenpeace.org or 0431 513 465
Kate O’Callaghan on kate.ocallaghan@greenpeace.org or 0406 231 892
‘Self-serving tosh’: Woodside’s Browse gas would derail energy transition and wreck Scott Reef
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