China’s coal demand is set to drop by 2027, more than cancelling out the effects of the Trump administration’s coal-friendly policies in the US, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).
Global coal demand is due to grow by 0.5% year-on-year to reach record levels in 2025, according to the latest figures in the IEA’s annual market report.
Yet this will be reversed over the next couple of years, as a faster-than-expected expansion of renewables in key Asian nations and “structural declines” in Europe push coal demand down, the agency says.
While US coal demand is set to continue falling, the decline will be slower than expected last year, due to new federal government efforts to support the fuel.
However, the IEA’s upward revision of an extra 38m tonnes (Mt) of US coal use in 2027 is dwarfed by an even larger 126Mt downward revision in China’s coal use.
‘Unusual trends’
Coal demand will reach 8,845Mt around the world in 2025. This is slightly (44Mt) higher than the IEA had forecast in its 2024 coal market report.
The agency notes some “unusual regional trends” impacting this growth, including a 37Mt year-on-year increase in US coal demand in 2025 to 516Mt. This is 59Mt (17%) higher than the IEA projected in 2024.
A new suite of measures under the Trump administration have supported the short-term use of coal, including the modernisation of existing coal plants and reopening shuttered ones.
EU coal use declined at a slower pace than expected due to lower wind and hydropower output, according to the IEA. Nevertheless, the bloc “continues its structural decline” in coal demand, driven by renewables expansion, carbon pricing and coal phaseout pledges.
India saw an unexpected dip in coal consumption in 2025, linked to a strong monsoon season that increased hydropower output and curbed electricity demand.
In China, which accounts for more than half of the world’s coal use, coal demand remained roughly unchanged between 2024 and 2025, the IEA says.
Demand drop
In its 2024 market report, the IEA projected a continued increase in global coal demand out to 2027. This was largely driven by China, which was on track to see its demand exceed 5,000Mt each year, up from 4939Mt in 2024.
In its latest forecast, the agency estimates that global coal demand will instead “plateau” in the coming years, “falling slightly by the end of the decade”.
Again, this is largely due to trends in China’s power sector, reflecting the “crowding-out” of coal from the grid by the nation’s “formidable renewables expansion” and “steady growth” of nuclear power.
(By contrast, last year clean-power sources were only expected to meet “most of” China’s rising electricity demand.)
The IEA estimates that China’s coal demand will drop to 4,879Mt by 2027 and continue falling to 4,772Mt by the end of the decade.
The global projection for 2027 is 149Mt (2%) lower than expected last year.
As the chart below shows, while US short-term coal demand is now expected to be higher than the IEA’s previous forecast, the drop in China more than makes up for this.

The projected dip in Chinese coal use is largely attributed to the “rapid expansion” of its renewable-energy capacity, the IEA notes. Renewables are soon set to provide a greater share of China’s electricity than coal, rising to 49% of generation by 2030, according to the report.
The Chinese government has set an ambition of peaking coal use before 2030.
While the IEA’s data suggests this goal will be met, the agency stresses that several factors “could turn the slight drop into a small increase”.
These include higher electricity demand, an increase in coal-to-chemicals projects and fluctuations in renewable-energy output due to weather conditions and other factors.
Meanwhile, India remains a “key driver of global coal demand”, but the new report also downgrades estimates for the nation’s future coal growth. The IEA forecasts that Indian coal demand will be 1,383Mt in 2027 – 39Mt (3%) lower than last year’s forecast.
This comes as a growing share of India’s electricity mix is provided by low-carbon power sources, with coal’s share set to decline from 70% in 2025 to 60% by 2030, according to the IEA.
The post IEA: Declining coal demand in China set to outweigh Trump’s pro-coal policies appeared first on Carbon Brief.
IEA: Declining coal demand in China set to outweigh Trump’s pro-coal policies
Climate Change
‘Completely delusional’: UN climate chief warns against fossil fuel push after Iran crisis
Doubling down on fossil fuels in response to the spikes in oil and gas prices unleashed by the Iran war would be “completely delusional”, the UN climate chief is expected to warn on Monday, in one of his strongest attacks yet on planet-heating fossil fuels.
Addressing political and business leaders in Brussels, Simon Stiell will argue that dependence on oil and gas is “ripping away national security and sovereignty” and will urge them not to use the crisis as a pretext to slow the clean energy transition.
“Fossil fuels that supercharge disasters rake in trillions in taxpayer-funded subsidies globally,” he will say. “Money that could be far better spent”.
Climate Home News understands Stiell views the current crisis as a crucial moment to ramp up pressure against fossil fuels, as it lays bare the economic irrationality of new oil and gas investments compared with the benefits of renewable energy.
Stiell’s warning comes at the start of a pivotal week for energy policy in Brussels. Energy ministers meet on Monday to discuss soaring energy costs before environment ministers gather on Tuesday to debate climate targets and a proposal to dilute carbon dioxide emissions standards for cars. Energy security will also feature high on the agenda of the European leaders’ summit on Thursday and Friday.
Oil and gas prices surging
Oil and gas prices have surged after key Gulf producers halted output following Iran’s attacks on regional infrastructure and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of the world’s oil supplies pass.
The disruption is hitting Asia hardest. Nearly 90% of the region’s oil and gas flows east, and fuel shortages have already forced Bangladesh to shut universities early and the Philippines to cut civil servants’ working hours. Across the continent, import-dependent countries have scrambled to lock in supplies, driving up prices as they compete for the same cargoes.
Europe has little direct exposure to the Strait of Hormuz disruption, but integrated global energy markets mean the continent will still pay more for its oil and gas imports.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said last week that the Iran war had already cost European citizens an additional three billion euros ($3.4 billion) in fossil fuel imports. “That is the price of our dependency,” she added.
‘Renewables turn the tables’
But right-wing politicians have seized on the Middle East crisis to attack the bloc’s green policies, blaming them for rising energy prices and weakening competitiveness.
Some governments, including Italy, have called for the suspension of the Emissions Trading System (ETS), the continent’s main climate policy, which incentivises companies to invest in lower-carbon production by putting a price on pollution. Eight other governments have urged the EU not to weaken its carbon market.
Von der Leyen said abandoning the EU’s long-term strategy, focused on investment in renewables and nuclear, would be a “strategic blunder”.
Gulf oil and gas crisis sparks calls for renewables investment
Echoing her message, Simon Stiell is expected to tell leaders that “meek dependence on fossil fuel imports will leave Europe forever lurching from crisis to crisis”.
“This fossil fuel crisis will happen again and again in this new world disorder where some major powers do as they please,” the UN climate chief will say.
“Renewables turn the tables,” Stiell is expected to add. “Sunlight doesn’t depend on narrow and vulnerable shipping straits. Wind blows without massive taxpayer-funded naval escorts”.
The rollout of new wind and solar power capacity across Europe since the introduction of the Green Deal in 2019 has saved 59 billion euros ($67bn) that would have been spent on additional fossil fuel imports, according to analysis by think-tank Ember.
The post ‘Completely delusional’: UN climate chief warns against fossil fuel push after Iran crisis appeared first on Climate Home News.
‘Completely delusional’: UN climate chief warns against fossil fuel push after Iran crisis
Climate Change
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