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Welcome to Carbon Brief’s DeBriefed. 
An essential guide to the week’s key developments relating to climate change.

This week

Push for new climate targets

MISSED DEADLINE: During a virtual meeting of 17 world leaders, Brazilian president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and UN secretary general António Guterres urged countries to come forward with their overdue climate plans, according to Folha de São Paulo. Diplomats from Brazil, which is hosting COP30, are working with UN officials to encourage countries to launch their new 2035 “nationally determined contributions” (NDCs) by September, Reuters explained. Carbon Brief analysis showed nearly every country missed the original deadline to submit new NDCs in February.

CHINA PLEDGE: Chinese president Xi Jinping announced during the meeting that China will submit its new NDC, covering all economic sectors and all greenhouse gases, ahead of COP30 in November, according to Xinhua. In addition, China Daily reported that Xi told attendees China would not slow down its climate action, “regardless of changes in the international landscape”.

Worst coral bleaching on record

NO END IN SIGHT: Coral bleaching has struck 84% of the world’s reefs in what the International Coral Reef Initiative has described as the worst global bleaching event on record, the Associated Press reported. The ongoing incident, caused by warming oceans, began in 2023 and it is “not clear” when it will end, according to the news outlet.

GLOBAL THREAT: In total, reefs in at least 82 countries and territories “have been exposed to enough heat to turn corals white”, according to the Guardian. Scientists in north and central America “were among the first to raise the alarm” after record ocean temperatures in the summer of 2023 and in recent weeks bleaching has spread to east African reefs, the newspaper added.

Around the world

  • CLIMATE-DRIVEN: The early arrival of an April heatwave in north India and Pakistan that saw temperatures reach 49C was “largely driven” by climate change, according to a new analysis by the French organisation ClimaMeter, reported by the Times of India.
  • TRADE WAR: The US has announced plans to impose tariffs on solar-panel imports from four southeast Asian countries – with some Cambodian exporters facing duties as high as 3,521% – according to BBC News. Meanwhile, the Trump administration has responded to rumours by stating it has no plans “at this time” to attempt to remove tax exempt status from US climate NGOs, Reuters reported.
  • NEW MARKET: Brazil is taking the “initial steps” to launch South America’s first-ever carbon market for major emitters within the country, which is expected to be operating by 2029, according to E&E News.
  • AUSTRALIA ELECTION: As Australia’s election looms, right-leaning Coalition leader Peter Dutton has confirmed that he would “scrap a popular tax break” for electric-vehicle drivers, the Guardian reported. Carbon Brief examined where Australia’s major parties stand on climate, energy and biodiversity loss.
  • HIGH ENERGY: An energy-security summit hosted in London by the UK government and the International Energy Agency saw prime minister Keir Starmer issue “some of his strongest comments yet” in support of net-zero policies, according to BusinessGreen

$28 trillion

The scale of the climate-related damage caused by emissions from 111 of the world’s biggest companies, according to a new Nature paper that the Washington Post said could “fuel” global climate litigation.


Latest climate research

  • A new study in Nature Climate Change concluded that the urban heat island effect – where cities experience higher temperatures than their surrounding rural areas – increases heat-related deaths, but also currently curbs deaths during cold spells at a higher rate.
  • A paper in Nature Reviews Clean Technology, also covered in a Carbon Brief guest post, explored “realistic” roles for hydrogen in the global energy transition, concluding that fuel-cell cars and space heating are “among the least promising applications”.
  • Sudden shifts from extreme warm to cold temperatures – and vice-versa – have become more frequent, intense and rapid over the past 60 years, according to new research published in Nature Communications.

(For more, see Carbon Brief’s in-depth daily summaries of the top climate news stories on Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.)

Captured

Conservative election win could add 800m tonnes to Canada’s emissions by 2035

A Conservative victory over the Liberals in the upcoming Canadian election could lead to nearly 800m extra tonnes of greenhouse gas emissions over the next decade, according to Carbon Brief analysis. Modelling by researchers from Simon Fraser University and University of Victoria shows that if the Conservatives follow through on their pledges to cut various climate policies, Canadian emissions would likely start to creep up in the coming years. However, as the analysis shows, even the Liberals’ policy platform would not put Canada on track to meet any of its climate targets, on the way to net-zero emissions by 2050.

Spotlight

How do the top papal candidates compare on climate?

Following the death of Pope Francis, Carbon Brief explores the various papal contenders’ views on climate issues.

Pope Francis, who died this week, has been praised for making climate action a core part of his work as the spiritual leader of the world’s 1.4 billion Catholics.

His influence extended far beyond the church and included directly lobbying oil companies, engaging in UN climate talks and criticising world leaders’ lack of action.

In 2015, the pope published Laudato Si – the first papal encyclical dedicated to the environment. As Carbon Brief reported at the time, it drew heavily on climate science and even called for fossil fuels to be phased out.

There is much speculation about whether Francis’s successor will continue his relatively progressive agenda, including on climate change.

Below, Carbon Brief examines the climate credentials of the cardinals that have been tipped as most likely to be chosen as the next pope during the church’s secret “conclave” process.

Papal candidates (left to right) Peter Turkson, Luis Antonio Tagle, Robert Sarah and Pietro Parolin.
Papal candidates (left to right) Peter Turkson, Luis Antonio Tagle, Robert Sarah and Pietro Parolin.

Pietro Parolin

The current favourite to become pope is Pietro Parolin, an Italian cardinal who has served as the Vatican’s secretary of state since 2013. He leads the Holy See’s delegation at UN climate summits.

He has stressed the “unequivocal” evidence and “scientific consensus” behind climate change. Speaking on behalf of Francis at COP28, Parolin described environmental destruction as “an offence against God, a sin that is not only personal, but also structural”.

The Holy See ratified the Paris Agreement in 2022 and has been actively involved in COP negotiations. In 2024, Parolin’s delegation attracted controversy when diplomats accused it of aligning with Saudi Arabia, Iran and Russia to block gender discussions at COP29.

Peter Turkson

Ghanaian cardinal Peter Turkson, chancellor of the Pontifical Academy of Sciences, has been influential in international climate politics.

During his time as president of the Pontifical Council for Justice and Peace, Turkson spent 18 months guiding the drafting of Laudato Si. He was described by the Guardian as “the public face of Pope Francis’s war on global warming”.

The encyclical was launched to influence the nascent Paris Agreement and commentators have pointed to similarities in wording and themes between the documents. Turkson attended the Paris summit with a Vatican delegation and the goal of being a “catalyst” for action.

Luis Antonio Tagle

Another frontrunner, cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle has not had as much high-level involvement in climate politics as other candidates. However, he has often been compared with Francis due to his focus on social justice.

Tagle has been a vocal supporter of Laudato Si and has been involved in climate activism in his native Philippines. He has been active in the response to extreme weather in his country and has made the link between such events and climate change.

Robert Sarah

A conservative cardinal from Guinea, Robert Sarah has been welcomed by multiple right-leaning media outlets and is viewed by some as an “anti-woke” successor to Francis.

However, he has cited Francis’ teachings on the environment and pointed to the role of foreign interests in exploiting African resources. “They pollute the environment and leave the continent in endemic poverty,” he wrote in 2019.

Other contenders

There is huge uncertainty surrounding the conclave voting process to choose the new pope and several other candidates are thought to be in the running.

Among them are the Italian cardinal Matteo Zuppi, another progressive who has called for “bold” action on climate change.

Another is Péter Erdő, a leading conservative candidate from Hungary. While Erdő has not been vocal on climate change, he has close ties with Hungarian prime minister Viktor Orbán, a strong opponent of climate action.

Watch, read, listen

SILENT MAJORITY: Covering Climate Now has launched “the 89% project”, a global media collaboration based on the idea that there is a “silent majority” of people around the world who want climate action.

ATTRIBUTION AND LITIGATION: Dr Friederike Otto and Dr Joyce Kimutai from the World Weather Attribution project at Imperial College London appeared on the New Scientist Weekly podcast to talk about how climate attribution science can be used to achieve climate justice, in part through litigation.

NIMBY NEWSCAST: Tortoise Media’s Slow Newscast investigated the “so-called zealots” who have been taking legal action against everything from road-building to energy projects in the UK, in an episode titled “nimby nation”.

Coming up

Pick of the jobs

DeBriefed is edited by Daisy Dunne. Please send any tips or feedback to debriefed@carbonbrief.org.

This is an online version of Carbon Brief’s weekly DeBriefed email newsletter. Subscribe for free here.

The post DeBriefed 25 April 2025: Brazil calls for country emissions plans; Global coral bleaching; Where top pope contenders stand on climate appeared first on Carbon Brief.

DeBriefed 25 April 2025: Brazil calls for country emissions plans; Global coral bleaching; Where top pope contenders stand on climate

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UN chief warns climate crisis “in overdrive” as El Niño threatens to fuel the fire

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The United Nations Secretary-General and foreign ministers from the UK, France and Spain have blamed the deadly wildfires engulfing Europe on climate change, using the disaster to renew calls for faster cuts to greenhouse gas emissions.

António Guterres told journalists on Friday that the “climate crisis is in overdrive”, adding that global heat seen so far is just a “warm up act” as a phenomenon known as El Niño intensifies “adding fuel to a planet already on fire”.

A new World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) report published on Friday predicts that the weather pattern will grow into a “strong event” between now and October, increasing the risk of higher than normal temperatures across much of the world and disrupted rainfalls.

“That risks shattering every seasonal record – and driving even more severe effects worldwide,” Guterres said.

El Niño builds on top of an already warming world, driven primarily by the burning of fossil fuels. A WMO scientist, who did not want to be named, told journalists that all the heatwaves and other climate impacts seen so far this year are “before the effects of El Niño are really kicking in at a global scale”.

Fossil fuellling the fires

Fires have broken out across much of Europe but are threatening the most people in the south-west of France near Bordeaux and in Central Spain near Madrid. Nearly a quarter of a million people have been evacuated in France with hundreds of homes destroyed while in Spain 80,000 people have had to leave their homes and at least 13 died in one village.

A scientific study published on Friday by the World Weather Attribution group found that man-made climate change made deadly fires in France twice as likely and those in Spain twenty times more likely. Smaller fires in the UK were not analysed by the study.

UN Climate Change leader Simon Stiell blamed fossil fuels for the fires, as well as storms in Chile and heatwaves in North America and Japan in recent weeks. “The climate alarm is blaring”, he said on Wednesday.

Guterres criticised new fossil fuel production projects and fossil fuel subsidies for causing hardship across the world. Discussing his speech, a senior UN official – who did not want to be named – said the subsidies amounted to trillions of US dollars a year and criticised pension funds and institutional investors, including insurance companies, for continuing to invest in fossil fuel projects.

The head of the United Nations Antonio Guterres (right) with the head of the UN’s climate arm Simon Stiell (left) at COP30 (Photo: Kiara Worth/UNFCCC)

Asked why world leaders and the public are not prioritising climate action, Guterres said they are distracted by wars in Ukraine, the Middle East, Sudan and elsewhere and sometimes forget “other aspects that are a sometimes even more dangerous threat”.

Also the fossil fuel industry and “some countries” are campaigning to pretend that climate change does not exist, he said, adding that the UN should be more active in “naming the situations as they are and the responsibilties as they are and mobilising the public opinion”.

After meetings in Paris and Madrid earlier in the week, the UK’s new foreign minister Ed Miliband issued joint statements with his French and Spanish counterparts – Jean-Noël Barrot and José Manuel Albares Bueno – calling on the world to reduce its dependence on fossil fuels.

They promised to do more to reduce emissions and protect their people and encouraged other governments to do the same.

The UK-French statement called on governments to publish UN climate plans, known as nationally determined contributions (NDCs), which are aligned with the Paris Agreement’s goal to limit global average temperatures to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels.

According to Climate Action Tracker, only three countries – the UK, Nigeria and Norway – have submitted NDCs with 2035 emissions reduction targets which are compatible with 1.5C. Fifty-two countries – including Egypt, Vietnam and Argentina – have yet to submit an NDC at all.

Defending science

Beyond action on emissions, the ministers also intervened in an ongoing dispute over the timing of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC)’s next flagship assessment.

Miliband and Barrot’s statement said they “underline the importance” of scientific report feeding into governments’ next global stocktake of progress on climate action in two years’ time, calling it a “critical input” to that process.

The timing of this report has been a contentious issue in government negotiations at the IPCC and at June’s climate talks in Bonn. While a group of nations calling themselves the “friends of science” want the report before the stocktake, others like Saudi Arabia and India have argued that this would make the report of a worse quality and less inclusive of developing countries’ scientists.

Science ‘under attack’ from fossil fuel interests at UN climate talks

The UK-Spanish statement weighed in less explicitly on this issue but said that they “recall the importance of scientific evidence and acknowledge the work of the IPCC in this respect.”

The British and French ministers said they would seek to accelerate reductions of emissions in methane, a particularly potent greenhouse gas, at COP31 in November. They encouraged governments “to work jointly to develop a marketplace for fossil fuels with near-zero methane intensity.”

Methane leaks from oil, gas and coal production are a major contributor to global warming. Over a 20-year period, methane traps around 80 times more heat than carbon dioxide.

Ed Miliband meets José Manuel Albares Bueno in Madrid on 29 July 2026. (Picture by Ed Morris / FCDO)

The UK and Spanish statement emphasised the importance of supporting the Global South and underlined the need to mobilise sustainable financing “at scale with the challenge we face”. The previous UK government, in which Miliband was energy minister, cut climate finance to developing countries to pay for increases in military spending.

The UK government led by new Prime Minister Andy Burnham has yet to outline any major changes to climate finance in its two weeks in power but has announced it will convert some finance from grants to loans in order to free up money to subsidise bus travel in England.

More adaptation needed

Guterres said that “it is time to stop treating each disaster as an isolated tragedy and recognise the systemic risk that is unfolding before our eyes.” A recent study found that three-quarters of UK media reports about the British June heatwave did not mention climate change.

As well as reducing emissions, the UN Secretary-General called for measures to adapt vulnerable people to extreme heat. Specifically, he said that buildings should be built and retrofitted for extreme heat and that every city and country should have heat-health action plans and early warning systems. Over 250 cities have joined the UN’s ‘beat the heat’ initiative, he said.

The Portuguese diplomat called for governments and employers to do more to protect their workers from heat, criticising global fashion brands for not setting heat standards for the factories that supply them. “No one should have to risk their life to earn a living,” he said.

The post UN chief warns climate crisis “in overdrive” as El Niño threatens to fuel the fire appeared first on Climate Home News.

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‘Ride the wave of momentum’: Australia announces once-in-a-decade Marine Parks Network review

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In response to the federal government announcing its once-in-a-decade review of Australia’s Marine Parks Network, the following lines can be attributed to Elle Lawless, Senior Campaigner at Greenpeace Australia Pacific:

“Greenpeace Australia Pacific welcomes today’s announcement that the Albanese Government will review Australia’s Commonwealth Marine Parks Network. This is a rare, once-in-a-decade opportunity to strengthen our marine parks and ban industrial fishing in Australia’s marine protected areas.

“Australians would be appalled to know that more than half of Australia’s Marine Parks Network currently allows for extractive industries, like longlining, bottom trawling and oil and gas mining. These so-called ‘protected’ areas were designed to safeguard our beloved ocean wildlife and underwater ecosystems – that is what Australians expect. Damaging industrial industries should not be given a free pass to trawl, fish, drill or extract from our marine parks.”

“With the first Ocean COP just around the corner, and off the back of Australia’s move to ratify the Global Ocean Treaty earlier this year, the Australian government has a unique opportunity to ride the wave of this momentum and solidify itself as a true global ocean leader.

“Greenpeace Australia Pacific is calling for industrial activities to be banned from our protected waters and for at least 30% of Australia’s ocean to be protected as ocean sanctuaries. This review presents a rare opportunity to create more ocean sanctuaries, true blue havens where ocean life can recover, thrive and repopulate the surrounding waters.”

—ENDS—

‘Ride the wave of momentum’: Australia announces once-in-a-decade Marine Parks Network review

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Factcheck: No, Europe is not having its ‘quietest’ year for wildfires

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In recent days, prominent climate sceptics and rightwing commentators have shared charts on social media incorrectly implying that Europe is having its “quietest” year for wildfires in 2026.

These include Dr Matthew Wielicki, a former University of Alabama geochemist and self-described “professor in exile”, who was recently appointed by the Trump administration to lead the US Global Change Research Program.

However, these charts paint a misleading picture as they are skewed by encompassing the entirety of Russia in the data – including the vast plains of Siberia.

These charts also use data that include fires that are deliberately lit to manage cropland, which is a declining practice across much of Europe.

In this factcheck, Carbon Brief shows that the area burned by wildfires across the European Union in 2026 is second only to 2022 for this time of year.

The latest data from the European Forest Fire Information System (EFFIS) also shows that France has set a new modern record for area burned and Spain’s wildfire season is among the worst on record.

The fires have displaced more than a third of a million people across south-western Europe, while an impending heatwave has also raised fears of the fires worsening in the coming days.

‘Quietest year’

On 27 July, as wildfires raged across multiple European countries, former Conservative peer and climate-sceptic commentator Matt Ridley posted on Twitter that “2026 is the quietest year for wildfires in Europe by some distance”.

Misleading social media post by Mitt Ridley that says" er...2026 is the quietest year for wild fires un Europe by some distance."

Ridley, who sits on the academic advisory council of the Global Warming Policy Foundation (GWPF), a UK-based climate-sceptic lobby group that refuses to reveal the sources of its funding, was responding to an article by Daily Telegraph columnist Tim Stanley.

Stanley’s column, headlined: “Climate change is real – and the right needs to get serious about it”, warned:

“This is no longer a matter of speculation: the wildfires of Europe, pitiless and persistent, are the way we live now.”

Ridley included a chart from Our World In Data, showing the cumulative area burned by wildfires by week for Europe. The chart puts 2026 as having the smallest area for this time of year in a dataset going back to 2012.

Ridley’s post was widely shared by prominent rightwing figures – including Richard Tice, deputy leader of the hard-right, climate-sceptic Reform UK party, former Conservative cabinet minister Jacob Rees-Mogg and multiple commentators.

Separately, Wielicki also shared a chart on Twitter to imply that wildfires in Europe are declining. Wielicki has previously claimed that the “science is not settled on climate change”.

The charts posted by Ridley and Wielicki both use data from the Global Wildfire Information System (GWIS). The GWIS category for “Europe” encompasses all the countries on the continent and includes the whole of Russia.

As a result, Russia accounts for about 74% of the area included in the GWIS definition of “Europe”.

Wildfires in Russia typically account for 80-90% of the burned area in the GWIS Europe dataset. In 2026, fires in Russia are substantially below average. Therefore, including Russia in this comparison creates the false impression that wildfire activity across Europe is unusually low.

Dr Calum Cunningham, a research fellow at the University of Tasmania’s Fire Centre, says that such claims are “highly misleading”, noting that “they rely on aggregating fire activity across an enormous and climatically diverse region”. He tells Carbon Brief:

“A relatively quiet season in Russia can easily mask an exceptionally active season in France or Spain. If the analysis is focused on the regions actually experiencing the current fires, the picture is very different.

“The reality is that western Europe has experienced an extraordinary sequence of climate conditions this year.”

In contrast, the EFFIS provides a subset of wildfire data specifically for the area covered by the 27 nations of the EU, which, therefore, excludes Russia.

Another difference between the two datasets is that GWIS monitors all fires – including those on agricultural land that are intentionally set alight. The burned area as measured by GWIS contains significant cropland area.

By contrast, EFFIS uses land-cover data and other information to filter specifically for forest fires.

Looking at the EU-only data from EFFIS reveals that Europe is far from having its “quietest” year. The bloc’s burned area, as of 29 July, is almost 435,000 hectares (ha) – second only to 2022 for this time of year.

The area burned by wildfires in the EU in 2026 by end of July is second only to 2022. Weekly cumulative burned area (hectares). Line graph shows 2026 burned area reaching over 400,000 hectares by late July, far exceeding the 2006-2025 average. Source: EFFIS - (alt text generated by Google Gemini)

Notably, Wielicki has actually continued to post charts based on GWIS data, even after acknowledging that “includ[ing] all of Russia, including vast areas of Siberia…isn’t a good proxy for Europe”.

French fires

Even looking at EU-wide data misses the scale of this year’s wildfires for some individual countries.

The chart below shows the surge in burned area in France since mid-July.

For much of the first half of the year, the country was having a wildfire season that was only slightly above average in terms of total burned area. However, a notable uptick began in the first week of July.

The third week of the month saw France break its previous cumulative annual record by more than 19,000ha. That gap has widened as the fires continue to burn; as of 29 July, the cumulative burned area in France during 2026 was nearly 24,700ha above the previous record.

France's wildfires in 2026 are the most widespread in modern records. Weekly cumulative burned area (hectares). A line chart shows 2026 burned area sharply rising by August to over 90,000 hectares, well above the 2006-2025 range maximum of around 65,000 and average of 15,000. Source: EFFIS - (alt text generated by Google Gemini)

The fires in France follow a record-breaking June heatwave that “dried out vegetation across the region, allowing fires to spread quickly”, wrote the New York Times.

On 27 July, French president Emmanuel Macron called a “crisis cabinet meeting” in order to address the fires “ravaging several areas of south-west France”, said France 24.

More than 220,000 people have been evacuated due to the Gironde fire, west of Bordeaux, in “what may be France’s largest peacetime evacuation”, reported the Associated Press.

In the Conversation, Cunningham and two other University of Tasmania researchers write that evacuation orders “protec[t] human lives, but makes it more likely houses and other structures will burn if there’s no one to defend them”. They add:

“There is little doubt climate change has made France and Spain’s wildfires worse. They represent yet another reason to redouble our efforts to tackle climate change and stabilise our climate.”

Central Spain scorched

While Spain’s fire season has not broken records in the same way that France’s has, it is on track to be among the worst since EFFIS began reporting data in 2006.

The chart below shows the rapid increase in burned area in Spain since 8 July. The latest data from EFFIS reveal that, as of 29 July, Spain has almost matched its previous record at this point in the year. It is also nearly five times the average area burned for this time of year.

Line chart titled "Spain's 2026 wildfires are among the worst in modern records", subtitle "Weekly cumulative burned area (hectares)". By August, 2026 burned area surges past 200,000 hectares, rising far above the 2006-2025 average and near the upper historical range. Source: EFFIS - (alt text generated by Google Gemini)

In Spain, the wildfires have been concentrated in the central part of the country, near Madrid.

BBC News reported that the fires outside the capital have burned “an area more than twice as large as the city itself”.

Nearly 90,000 people were forced from their homes in central Spain by the fires, said the Associated Press.

Pedro Sánchez, Spain’s prime minister, called the fires a “painful expression” of climate change.

Meanwhile, the UK, French and Spanish governments have issued joint statements this week in response to the fires. The UK/Spain statement begins:

“This summer’s wildfires demonstrated that climate change was now a national security emergency facing Europe and threatening our way of life.”

The post Factcheck: No, Europe is not having its ‘quietest’ year for wildfires appeared first on Carbon Brief.

Factcheck: No, Europe is not having its ‘quietest’ year for wildfires

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