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Welcome to Carbon Brief’s DeBriefed. 
An essential guide to the week’s key developments relating to climate change.

This week

Cyclone Chido ravages south-east Africa

DEVASTATING STORM: Hundreds or even thousands of people were feared dead after Cyclone Chido hit the French overseas island territory of Mayotte and then continental Africa, Reuters reported. At least 69 people have been confirmed dead across Mayotte, Mozambique and Malawi, according to Al Jazeera. More than 1,400 people had been injured in the storm and about 8,000 people had taken shelter in schools, the New York Times reported. France will observe a day of national mourning on Monday, reported Le Monde.

POOR DATA: Cyclone Chido is the most intense storm to hit Mayotte in 90 years, the Associated Press reported. The storm carried winds of at least 140mph (225km/h) when it reached Mayotte, which lies between Mozambique and Madagascar, the Guardian said. Scientists have long suggested that climate change is making cyclones worse in the region, but a lack of weather data has hindered more conclusive claims, the Associated Press said.

Coal use to climb in 2024

NEW HEIGHTS: The world’s coal use is expected to reach a new high of 8.7bn tonnes this year and could remain at near-record levels until 2027, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA), the Guardian reported. The newspaper added that the IEA blamed power plants, particularly in China, for the growth. Bloomberg reported that the IEA’s latest forecast “overwrites last year’s estimate that coal demand would begin a steady decline this decade”.

MOVING ON: Meanwhile, the IEA notes that in developed economies, such as the US and the EU, coal power generation continued to see a steady decline and is forecast to fall by 5% and 12%, respectively, in 2024, the Guardian reported. A new Carbon Brief analysis revealed that the number of proposed coal plants in the 38 mainly developed members of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development has decreased from 142 in 2015 to five today – a 96% drop.

Around the world

  • NEW PLEDGE: The Biden administration has committed the US to cutting its emissions by 61-66% below 2005 levels by 2035 in a “significant update” to its climate plans, the New York Times reported. However, it adds that the pledge will “almost certainly be disregarded” by the incoming president Donald Trump.
  • MAKING CONNECTIONS: A new report published by the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) said governments are underestimating the link between biodiversity, water, food, health and climate change, BBC News reported. Carbon Brief also covered the findings.
  • NO DEAL: The UN desertification COP16 summit hosted in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia ended without an agreement on a legally-binding response to drought, the Financial Times reported.
  • ARID CONDITIONS: A drought has been linked to the death of 80 elephants at the Madikwe Game Reserve in South Africa, the Mail and Guardian reported.
  • RENEWABLE POWER: The IEA said tapping less than 1% of Africa’s potential for enhanced geothermal systems could meet the continent’s electricity needs in 2050, Semafor reported.
  • FOSSIL PHASEOUT: The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has approved California’s “landmark plan” to end the sale of petrol-only vehicles by 2035, Reuters reported.

8 million

The number of homes in England that could face flood risks by 2050, according to the UK’s Environment Agency, the Financial Times reported. This means one in four English homes could be at risk of flooding by the middle of the century. The government body said 6.3 million homes already face flood risk in England.


Latest climate research

  • Major declines in Antarctic sea ice in 2023 increased ocean heat loss and storm frequency in previously ice-covered regions, a new study in Nature found.
  • A new paper in the International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control found that the global cement sector could produce “net-negative” cement and meet its 2050 carbon neutrality target early if bioenergy and carbon capture and storage (BECCS) is integrated into cement operations.
  • A new study in Science found that more than half of Alaska’s population of common murres, also known as common guillemots, died during an “extreme” marine heatwave event over 2014-16, with an estimated four million of the seabirds lost.

(For more, see Carbon Brief’s in-depth daily summaries of the top climate news stories on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.)

Captured

Map showing the five remaining coal plant proposals in OECD countries,

The number of new coal plants under development in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) region has reached record lows since the signing of the Paris Agreement in 2015, according to the latest data from Global Energy Monitor’s Global Coal Plant Tracker (GCPT). Proposed coal-fired capacity in the OECD has fallen from 142 in 2015 to just five today, shown in the map above.

Spotlight

Unpacking the political economy of Africa’s energy transition

This week, Carbon Brief reports from a conference in Chicago on how Africa can transition to low-carbon energy and boost access to electricity.

Earlier this month, a panel of academics convened at the African Studies Association conference in Chicago to discuss the political economy of Africa’s energy transition.

The conference papers highlighted the role of national governments, resource endowments, and sovereignty in the continent’s adoption of non-hydro renewable energy.

Africa’s energy transition is contested. Amid the continent’s energy poverty – at least 600 million people live without electricity – calls for the defunding of fossil fuel projects have been met with sharp criticism.

While Africa’s significant solar and wind resources mean it does not have to follow the high-carbon practices of the past to produce electricity, funding for clean energy on the continent remains starkly inadequate.

‘Politicised’ decisions

One of the papers presented at the Chicago conference, focusing on Tanzania,

noted that decision-making around energy projects is routinely politicised.

While the east African country has long pushed to diversify its energy mix, the ruling party has often prioritised projects with short-term deliverability and impact.

Focusing on solar and wind energy projects can be viewed as “politically risky”, said Dr Rasmus Hundsbæk Pedersen, a senior researcher at the Danish Institute for International Studies and one of the paper’s authors.

The scenario is similar in Ghana where politicians have turned to fossil fuel sources as quick fixes to the problem of energy security, paying less attention to sustainability or decarbonisation – issues that are less popular with voters.

Meanwhile, the discovery and development of gas reserves in Tanzania and Ghana has inspired a nationalist pushback against the notion of abandoning fossil fuels.

This is despite analysis showing that a push to reach net-zero by 2070 in Ghana by deploying renewables, low-carbon hydrogen, electric vehicles and clean cookstoves could present a $550bn international investment opportunity and create a net 400,000 jobs.

Countries that are rich in fossil fuels generally push for using such fuel sources for their power sectors, while others are more open to developing renewable energy capacity.

For example, Kenya, an African country with limited fossil fuel resources, has become one of the world’s fastest-growing developers of geothermal energy.

Moving forward with renewables

Given the political weight of energy security in Africa, Pedersen said that pushing for non-hydro renewable energy should fit into the dominant ideas about development held by African political elites.

In his opinion, this could include the use of gas “in the short to medium term”, but he added “there is discussion” about “how to use it in the best way”.

Dr Matthew Tyce, a researcher at King’s College London who has studied the role of the Kenyan government in geothermal energy development, told Carbon Brief that African countries need to be “cautious about adopting the kinds of institutional configurations that are often promoted by international actors”, which emphasise market-based solutions.

He also urged international donors and development finance institutions “to be less dogmatic about promoting modes of energy transition that rely disproportionately on private investment”.

The Asian model

For Anne Marx Lorenzen, a PhD candidate researching the sustainability of Chinese and Japanese renewable energy projects in Cambodia, Indonesia and Ethiopia, global north countries can learn a lot from the Asian approach.

By working with the Ethiopian government’s developmental vision, China and Japan have invested heavily in the country’s energy resources, becoming a viable alternative to global north partners, Lorensen argued in a paper presented at the conference.

The global north “needs to listen more to our African partners and what they want their own development trajectory to be”, Lorensen told Carbon Brief, adding: “I think in the past, we’ve been focused on setting terms and conditions, focused on liberalisation and privatisation.”

Tanzanians “want an energy transition that recognises their energy access and security needs”, Dr Japhace Poncian, a senior lecturer at the Mkwawa University College of Education, said. He added: “Ensuring access to energy is a primary goal and this does not care much about the greenness of the source.”

Watch, read, listen

ENVIRONMENT ADVOCATES: The New Yorker‘s Elizabeth Kolbert highlighted Vauatu’s role in the International Court of Justice’s decision to rule on climate change.

EV REVOLUTION: In a new edition of Sinica, host Kaiser Kuo discussed China’s rapid surge in electric vehicle manufacturing, adoption and export with Illaria Mazzocco, deputy director and senior fellow with the Trustee Chair in Chinese Business and Economics at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).

A NEW WORLD: During a trip to South Africa, United Nations secretary general, António Guterres, said Africa needs financial, climate and technological justice.

Coming up

Pick of the jobs

DeBriefed is edited by Daisy Dunne. Please send any tips or feedback to debriefed@carbonbrief.org.
This is an online version of Carbon Brief’s weekly DeBriefed email newsletter. Subscribe for free here.

The post DeBriefed 20 December 2024: Cyclone Chido hits; Coal’s new peak; Africa’s energy transition appeared first on Carbon Brief.

DeBriefed 20 December 2024: Cyclone Chido hits; Coal’s new peak; Africa’s energy transition

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Analysis: UK newspaper editorial opposition to climate action overtakes support for first time

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Nearly 100 UK newspaper editorials opposed climate action in 2025, a record figure that reveals the scale of the backlash against net-zero in the right-leaning press.

Carbon Brief has analysed editorials – articles considered the newspaper’s formal “voice” – since 2011 and this is the first year opposition to climate action has exceeded support.

Criticism of net-zero policies, including renewable-energy expansion, came entirely from right-leaning newspapers, particularly the Sun, the Daily Mail and the Daily Telegraph.

In addition, there were 112 editorials – more than two a week – that included attacks on Ed Miliband, continuing a highly personal campaign by some newspapers against the Labour energy secretary.

These editorials, nearly all of which were in right-leaning titles, typically characterised him as a “zealot”, driving through a “costly” net-zero “agenda”.

Taken together, the newspaper editorials mirror a significant shift on the UK political right in 2025, as the opposition Conservative party mimicked the hard-right populist Reform UK party by definitively rejecting the net-zero target that it had legislated for and the policies that it had previously championed.

Record climate opposition

Nearly 100 UK newspaper editorials voiced opposition to climate action in 2025 – more than double the number of editorials that backed climate action.

As the chart below shows, 2025 marked the fourth record-breaking year in a row for criticism of climate action in newspaper editorials.

This also marks the first time that editorials opposing climate action have overtaken those supporting it, during the 15 years that Carbon Brief has analysed.

Chart showing that for the first time, there were more UK newspaper editorials opposing climate action than supporting it in 2025
Number of UK newspaper editorials arguing for more (blue) and less (red) climate action, 2011-2025. Some editorials also present a “balanced” view, which is categorised as advocating for neither “more” nor “less” climate action. These editorials are not represented in this chart. Source: Carbon Brief analysis.

This trend demonstrates the rapid shift away from a long-standing political consensus on climate change by those on the UK’s political right.

Over the past year, the Conservative party has rejected both the “net-zero by 2050” target that it legislated for in 2019 and the underpinning Climate Change Act that it had a major role in creating. Meanwhile, the Reform UK party has been rising in the polls, while pledging to “ditch net-zero”.

These views are reinforced and reflected in the pages of the UK’s right-leaning newspapers, which tend to support these parties and influence their politics.

All of the 98 editorials opposing climate action were in right-leaning titles, including the Sun, the Daily Mail, the Daily Telegraph, the Times and the Daily Express.

Conversely, nearly all of the 46 editorials pushing for more climate action were in the left-leaning and centrist publications the Guardian and the Financial Times. These newspapers have far lower circulations than some of the right-leaning titles.

In total, 81% of the climate-related editorials published by right-leaning newspapers in 2025 rejected climate action. As the chart below shows, this is a marked difference from just a few years ago, when the same newspapers showed a surge in enthusiasm for climate action.

That trend had coincided with Conservative governments led by Theresa May and Boris Johnson, which introduced the net-zero goal and were broadly supportive of climate policies.

Chart showing nearly every climate-related editorial in the UK's right-leaning newspapers last year opposed climate action
The share of right-leaning, climate-related UK newspaper editorials arguing for more (blue) and less (red) climate action, 2011-2025, %. Some editorials also present a “balanced” view, which is categorised as advocating for neither “more” or “less” climate action. These editorials are not represented in this chart. Source: Carbon Brief analysis.

Notably, none of the editorials opposing climate action in 2025 took a climate-sceptic position by questioning the existence of climate change or the science behind it. Instead, they voiced “response scepticism”, meaning they criticised policies that seek to address climate change.

(The current Conservative leader, Kemi Badenoch, has described herself as “a net-zero sceptic, not a climate change sceptic”. This is illogical as reaching net-zero is, according to scientists, the only way to stop climate change from getting worse.)

In particular, newspapers took aim at “net-zero” as a catch-all term for policies that they deemed harmful. Most editorials that rejected climate action did not even mention the word “climate”, often using “net-zero” instead.

This supports recent analysis by Dr James Painter, a research associate at the University of Oxford, which concluded that UK newspaper coverage has been “decoupling net-zero from climate change”.

This is significant, given strong and broad UK public support for many of the individual climate policies that underpin net-zero. Notably, there is also majority support for the “net-zero by 2050” target itself.

Much of the negative framing by politicians and media outlets paints “net-zero” as something that is too expensive for people in the UK.

In total, 87% of the editorials that opposed climate action cited economic factors as a reason, making this by far the most common justification. Net-zero goals were described as “ruinous” and “costly”, as well as being blamedfalsely – for “driving up energy costs”.

The Sunday Telegraph summarised the view of many politicians and commentators on the right by stating simply that said “net-zero should be scrapped”.

While some criticism of net-zero policies is made in good faith, the notion that climate change can be stopped without reducing emissions to net-zero is incorrect. Alternative policies for tackling climate change are rarely presented by critical editorials.

Moreover, numerous assessments have concluded that the transition to net-zero can be both “affordable” and far cheaper than previously thought.

This transition can also provide significant economic benefits, even before considering the evidence that the cost of unmitigated warming will significantly outweigh the cost of action.

Miliband attacks intensify

Meanwhile, UK newspapers published 112 editorials over the course of 2025 taking personal aim at energy security and net-zero secretary Ed Miliband.

Nearly all of these articles were in right-leaning newspapers, with the Sun alone publishing 51. The Daily Mail, the Daily Telegraph and the Times published most of the remainder.

This trend of relentlessly criticising Miliband personally began last year in the run up to Labour’s election victory. However, it ramped up significantly in 2025, as the chart below shows.

Chart showing UK newspapers published more than 100 editorials criticising Ed Miliband last year – nearly twice as many as in 2024
Cumulative number of UK newspaper editorials criticising energy secretary Ed Miliband in 2024 (light blue) and 2025 (dark blue). Source: Carbon Brief analysis.

Around 58% of the editorials that opposed climate action used criticism of climate advocates as a justification – and nearly all of these articles mentioned Miliband, specifically.

Editorials denounced Miliband as a “loon” and a “zealot”, suffering from “eco insanity” and “quasi-religious delusions”. Nicknames given to him include “His Greenness”, the “high priest of net-zero” and “air miles Miliband”.

Many of these attacks were highly personal. The Daily Mail, for example, called Miliband “pompous and patronising”, with an “air of moral and intellectual superiority”.

Frequently, newspapers refer to “Ed Miliband’s net-zero agenda”, “Ed Miliband’s swivel-eyed targets” and “Mr Miliband’s green taxes”.

These formulations frame climate policies as harmful measures that are being imposed on people by the energy secretary.

In fact, the Labour government decisively won an election in 2024 with a manifesto that prioritised net-zero policies. Often, the “targets” and “taxes” in question are long-standing policies that were introduced by the previous Conservative government, with cross-party support.

Moreover, the government’s climate policy not only continues to rely on many of the same tools created by previous administrations, it is also very much in line with expert evidence and advice. This is to prioritise the expansion of clean power and to fuel an economy that relies on increasing levels of electrification, including through electric cars and heat pumps.

Despite newspaper editorials regularly calling for Miliband to be “sacked”, prime minister Keir Starmer has voiced his support both for the energy secretary and the government’s prioritisation of net-zero.

In an interview with podcast The Rest is Politics last year, Miliband was asked about the previous Carbon Brief analysis that showed the criticism aimed at him by right-leaning newspapers.

Podcast host Alastair Campbell asked if Miliband thought the attacks were the legacy of his strong stance, while Labour leader, during the Leveson inquiry into the practices of the UK press. Miliband replied:

“Some of these institutions don’t like net-zero and some of them don’t like me – and maybe quite a lot of them don’t like either.”

Renewable backlash

As well as editorial attitudes to climate action in general, Carbon Brief analysed newspapers’ views on three energy technologies – renewables, nuclear power and fracking.

There were 42 newspaper editorials criticising renewable energy in 2025. This meant that, for the first time since 2014, there were more anti-renewables editorials than pro-renewables editorials, as the chart below shows.

As with climate action more broadly, this was a highly partisan issue. The Times was the only right-leaning newspaper that published any editorials supporting renewables.

Chart showing newspaper editorials criticising renewables overtook those supporting them for the first time in more than a decade
Number of UK newspaper editorials that were pro- (blue) and anti-renewables (red), 2011-2025. Some editorials also present a “balanced” view, which is categorised as advocating for neither “more” or “less” climate action. These editorials are not represented in this chart. Source: Carbon Brief analysis.

By far the most common stated reason for opposing renewable energy was that it is “expensive”, with 86% of critical editorials using economic arguments as a justification.

The Sun referred to “chucking billions at unreliable renewables” while the Daily Telegraph warned of an “expensive and intermittent renewables grid”.

At the same time, editorials in supportive publications also used economic arguments in favour of renewables. The Guardian, for example, stressed the importance of building an “affordable clean-energy system” that is “built on renewables”.

There was continued support in right-leaning publications for nuclear power, despite the high costs associated with the technology. In total, there were 20 editorials supporting nuclear power in 2025 – nearly all in right-leaning newspapers – and none that opposed it.

Fracking was barely mentioned by newspapers in 2023 and 2024, after a failed push by the Conservatives under prime minister Liz Truss to overturn a ban on the practice in 2022. This attempt had been accompanied by a surge in supportive right-leaning newspaper editorials.

There was a small uptick of 15 editorials supporting fracking in 2025, as right-leaning newspapers once again argued that it would be economically beneficial.

The Sun urged current Conservative leader Badenoch to make room for this “cheap, safe solution” in her future energy policy. The government plans to ban fracking “permanently”.

North Sea oil and gas remained the main fossil-fuel policy focus, with 30 editorials – all in right-leaning newspapers – that mentioned the topic. Most of the editorials arguing for more extraction from the North Sea also argued for less climate action or opposed renewable energy.

None of these editorials noted that the UK is expected to be significantly less reliant on fossil-fuel imports if it pursues net-zero, than if it rolls back on climate action and attempts to squeeze more out of the remaining deposits in the North Sea.

Methodology

This is a 2025 update of previous analysis conducted for the period 2011-2021 by Carbon Brief in association with Dr Sylvia Hayes, a research fellow at the University of Exeter. Previous updates were published in 2022, 2023 and 2024.

The count of editorials criticising Ed Miliband was not conducted in the original analysis.

The full methodology can be found in the original article, including the coding schema used to assess the language and themes used in editorials concerning climate change and energy technologies.

The analysis is based on Carbon Brief’s editorial database, which is regularly updated with leading articles from the UK’s major newspapers.

The post Analysis: UK newspaper editorial opposition to climate action overtakes support for first time appeared first on Carbon Brief.

Analysis: UK newspaper editorial opposition to climate action overtakes support for first time

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DeBriefed 16 January 2026: Three years of record heat; China and India coal milestone; Beijing’s 2026 climate outlook

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Welcome to Carbon Brief’s DeBriefed. 
An essential guide to the week’s key developments relating to climate change.

This week

Hottest hat-trick

STATE OF THE CLIMATE: Scientists have announced that 2025 was either the second or third hottest year on record, with close margins between last year and 2023, reported the Associated Press. The newswire noted that “temperature averages for 2025 hovered around – and mostly above – 1.4C of industrial era warming”. Bloomberg said that this happened despite the natural weather phenomenon La Niña, which “suppresses global temperatures”, meaning “heat from greenhouse gases countered that cooling influence”. Carbon Brief’s comprehensive analysis of the data found cumulative global ice loss also “reached a new record high in 2025”.

OVERHEATING OCEANS: Separately, the world’s oceans “absorbed colossal amounts of heat in 2025”, said the Guardian, setting “yet another new record and fuelling more extreme weather”. It added that the “extra heat makes the hurricanes and typhoons…more intense, causes heavier downpours of rain and greater flooding and results in longer marine heatwaves”.

FIRE AND ICE: Wildfires in Australia have destroyed around 500 structures, said the Sydney Morning Herald, with a “dozen major fires” still burning. A wildfire in Argentinian Patagonia has “blazed through nearly 12,000 hectares” of scrubland and forests, according to the Associated Press. Meanwhile, parts of the Himalayas are “snowless” for the first time in nearly four decades, signalling a “climatic anomaly”, reported the Times of India.

Around the world

  • EMISSIONS REBOUND: US emissions rose 2% last year after two years of declines” due to a rise in coal power generation, said Axios, in coverage of research by the Rhodium Group.
  • ‘UNINVESTABLE’ OIL: US president Donald Trump may “sideline” ExxonMobil from Venezuela’s oil market after its comment that Venezuela is “uninvestable”, reported CNBC. TotalEnergies is also “in no rush to return to Venezuela”, said Reuters
  • PRICE WARS: The EU issued guidelines that will allow tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles to be removed in exchange for minimum price commitments, said Reuters
  • ‘RECORD’ AUCTION: The UK government has secured “8.4 gigawatts of new offshore wind power” in a “record” auction, said Sky News. Although the auction saw some price rises, this will likely be “cost neutral” for consumers, Carbon Brief said – contrary to the “simplistic and misleading” narratives promoted by some media outlets.
  • COP STRATEGY: The Guardian reported that Chris Bowen, the Australian minister appointed “president of negotiations” for COP31, plans to use his role to lobby “Saudi Arabia and others” on the need to phase out fossil fuels. 

$2bn

The size of a new climate fund unveiled by the Nigerian government, according to Reuters


Latest climate research

  • Rooftop solar in the EU has the potential to meet 40% of electricity demand in a 100% renewable scenario for 2050 | Nature Energy
  • Natural wildfires, such as those ignited by lightning strikes, have been increasing in frequency and intensity in sub-Saharan Africa, driven by climate change | Global and Planetary Change
  • Engaging diverse citizens groups can lead to “more equitable, actionable climate adaptation” across four pilot regions in Europe | Frontiers in Climate

(For more, see Carbon Brief’s in-depth daily summaries of the top climate news stories on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.)

Captured

Chart: Record clean energy growth helped cut coal power in China and India

Both China and India saw coal power generation fall in 2025, in the “first simultaneous drop in half a century”, found new analysis for Carbon Brief, which was widely reported around the world. It noted that, for both countries, the decline in coal was driven by new clean-energy capacity additions, which were “more than sufficient to meet rising demand”.

Spotlight

What are China experts watching for in 2026?

The year 2026 will be pivotal for China’s climate policy. In March, the government will release key climate and energy targets for 2030, the year by which China has pledged to have peaked its emissions.

At the same time, with the US increasingly turning away from climate policy and towards fossil fuel expansionism, China’s role in global climate action is more important than ever.

Carbon Brief asks leading experts what they are watching for from China over the year ahead.

Shuo Li, director of the China Climate Hub, Asia Society Policy Institute

After decades of rapid growth, independent analyses suggest China’s CO2 emissions may have plateaued or even begun to decline in 2025.

The transition from emissions growth to stabilisation and early decline will be the key watch point for 2026 and will be shaped by the forthcoming 15th five-year plan. [This plan will set key economic goals, including energy and climate targets, for 2030.]

However, the precise timing, scale and enforceability of these absolute emissions control measures remain under active debate. Chinese experts broadly agree that if the 2021-2025 period was characterised by continued emissions growth, and 2031-2035 is expected to deliver a clear decline, then 2026-2030 will serve as a critical “bridge” between the two.

Yan Qin, principal analyst, ClearBlue Markets

First, the 15th five-year plan inaugurates the “dual control of carbon” system. This year marks the first time industries and local governments face binding caps on total emissions, not just intensity.

Second, the national carbon market is aggressively tightening. With the inclusion of steel, cement and aluminum this year, regulators are executing a “market reset” – de-weighting older allowances [meaning they cannot be used to contribute to polluters’ obligations for 2026] and enforcing stricter benchmarks to bolster prices ahead of the full rollout of the EU’s carbon border adjustment mechanism.

Cecilia Trasi, senior policy advisor for industry and trade, ECCO

China’s solar manufacturing overcapacity is prompting Beijing’s first serious consolidation efforts. At the same time, its offshore wind technology is advancing rapidly [and there are] signals that Chinese wind companies are pursuing entry into European markets through local production, mirroring strategies adopted by battery manufacturers.

Together, these dynamics suggest that the next phase of cleantech competition will be shaped less by trade defense alone and more by the interaction between Chinese supply-side reforms and global market-absorption capacity.

Tu Le, managing director, Sino Auto Insights

China’s electric vehicle (EV) industry has been the primary force pushing the global passenger vehicle market toward clean energy. That momentum should continue. But a growing headwind has emerged: tariffs. Mexico, Brazil, Europe and the US are just a few of the countries raising barriers, complicating the next phase of global EV expansion.

One new wildcard: the US now effectively controls Venezuelan oil. If that meaningfully impacts global oil prices, it could either slow – or unexpectedly accelerate – the shift toward clean-energy vehicles.

Responses have been edited for length and clarity.

A full-length version of the article is available on the Carbon Brief website.

Watch, read, listen

SHAPING THE LAND: In addition to land use shaping the climate, climate change is now increasingly “changing the land”, according to satellite monitoring by World Resources Institute, creating a “dangerous feedback loop”.

‘POSITIVE TIPPING POINTS’: A commentary co-authored by climate scientist Prof Corinne Le Quéré in Nature argued that several climate trends have locked in “irreversible progress in climate action”.

FROM THE FLAMES: Nick Grimshaw interviewed musician and data analyst Miriam Quick on how she turned the 2023 Canadian wildfires into music on BBC Radio 6. (Skip to 1:41:45 to listen.)

Coming up

Pick of the jobs

DeBriefed is edited by Daisy Dunne. Please send any tips or feedback to debriefed@carbonbrief.org.

This is an online version of Carbon Brief’s weekly DeBriefed email newsletter. Subscribe for free here.

The post DeBriefed 16 January 2026: Three years of record heat; China and India coal milestone; Beijing’s 2026 climate outlook appeared first on Carbon Brief.

DeBriefed 16 January 2026: Three years of record heat; China and India coal milestone; Beijing’s 2026 climate outlook

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Brazil’s biodiversity pledge: Six key takeaways for nature and climate change

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The world’s most biodiverse nation, Brazil, has belatedly published its UN plan for halting and reversing nature decline by the end of this decade.

Brazil is home to 10-15% of all known species on Earth, 64% of the Amazon rainforest and it supplies 10% of global food demand, according to official estimates.

It was among around 85% of nations to miss the 2024 deadline for submitting a new UN nature plan, known as a national biodiversity strategy and action plan (NBSAP), according to a joint investigation by Carbon Brief and the Guardian.

On 29 December 2025, Brazil finally published its new NBSAP, following a lengthy consultation process involving hundreds of scientists, Indigenous peoples and civil society members.

The NBSAP details how the country will meet the goals and targets of the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework (GBF), the landmark deal often described as the “Paris Agreement” for nature, agreed in 2022. 

Below, Carbon Brief walks through six key takeaways from Brazil’s belated NBSAP:

  1. The government plans to ‘conserve’ 80% of the Brazilian Amazon by 2030
  2. It plans to ‘eliminate’ deforestation in Brazilian ecosystems by 2030
  3. Brazil has ‘aligned’ its actions on tackling climate change and biodiversity loss
  4. The country seeks to ‘substantially increase’ nature finance from a range of sources
  5. Brazil’s plans for agriculture include ‘sustainable intensification’
  6. Brazil conducted a largest-of-its-kind consultation process before releasing its NBSAP

The government plans to ‘conserve’ 80% of the Brazilian Amazon by 2030

The third target of the GBF sets out the aim that “by 2030 at least 30% of terrestrial, inland water and of coastal and marine areas…are effectively conserved and managed”. This is often referred to as “30 by 30”.  

Previous analysis by Carbon Brief and the Guardian found that more than half of countries’ pledges were not aligned with this aim. (Importantly, all of the GBF’s targets are global ones and do not prescribe the amount of land that each country must protect.)

Brazil’s NBSAP sets a substantially higher goal – it seeks to conserve 80% of the Amazon rainforest within its borders, as well as 30% of the country’s other ecosystems.

Since Brazil is one of the largest countries in the world, in addition to being the most biodiverse, this higher target represents a significant step towards achieving the global target.

For the purposes of its protected areas target, Brazil considers not just nationally designated protected areas, but also the lands of Indigenous peoples, Quilombola territories and other local communities.

As the NBSAP notes, Brazil has already taken several steps towards achieving the “30 by 30” target.

In 2018, the country created or expanded four marine protected areas in its territorial waters, increasing its protected area coverage from around 1.5% to greater than 25%. 

According to Brazil’s sixth national report, submitted to the CBD in 2020, 18% of the country’s “continental area” – that is, its land and inland waters – was part of a protected area. More than 28% of the Amazon received such a designation. 

A further 12% of the country is demarcated as Indigenous lands, which “provide important protection to a large territorial extension of the country, particularly in the Amazon biome”, the report says.

The action plan that accompanies the new NBSAP sets out 15 actions in support of achieving target three, including recognising and titling Indigenous lands, establishing ecological corridors and biosphere reserves and implementing national strategies for mangrove, coral reef and wetlands protection.

It plans to ‘eliminate’ deforestation in Brazilian ecosystems by 2030

As well as committing to the GBF targets of protecting and restoring ecosystems, Brazil’s NBSAP also sets a separate target to “eliminate” deforestation in Brazilian biomes by 2030.

Target 1B of Brazil’s NBSAP says that the country aims to “achieve zero deforestation and conversion of native vegetation by 2030”.

The country hopes to achieve this “through the elimination of illegal deforestation and conversion, compensation for the legal suppression of native vegetation, prevention and control of wildfires, combating desertification and attaining land degradation neutrality”.

This goes above and beyond what is set out in the GBF, which does not mention “deforestation” at all.

Brazilian president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva was reelected as leader in 2022 on a promise to achieve “zero deforestation”, following a rise in Amazon destruction under his predecessor, Jair Bolsonaro.

Data from Global Forest Watch (GFW), an independent satellite research platform, found that deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon fell by a “dramatic” 36% in 2023 under Lula.

However, Brazil remains the world’s largest deforester. Separate GFW data shows that the country accounted for 42% of all primary forest loss in 2024 – with two-thirds of this driven by wildfires fuelled by a record drought.

Brazil has ‘aligned’ its actions on tackling climate change and biodiversity loss

Brazil’s NBSAP comes shortly after it hosted the COP30 climate summit in the Amazon city of Belém in November.

One of the presidency’s priorities at the talks was to bring about greater coordination between global efforts to tackle climate change and biodiversity loss.

At the Rio Earth summit in 1992, the world decided to address Earth’s most pressing environmental problems under three separate conventions: one on climate change, one on biodiversity and the final one on land desertification.

But, for the past few years, a growing number of scientists, politicians and diplomats have questioned whether tackling these issues separately is the right approach.

And, at the most recent biodiversity and land desertification COPs, countries agreed to new texts calling for closer cooperation between the three Rio conventions. 

At COP30, the Brazilian presidency attempted to negotiate a new text to enhance “synergies” between the conventions. However, several nations, including Saudi Arabia, vocally opposed the progression of a substantive outcome.

Following on from this, Brazil’s NBSAP states that its vision for tackling nature loss is “aligned” with its UN climate plan, known as a nationally determined contribution (NDC).

In addition, the NBSAP states that Brazil is taking a “holistic approach to addressing the existing crises of climate change and biodiversity loss in a synergistic manner”.

It lists several targets that could help to address both environmental problems, including ending deforestation, promoting sustainable agriculture and restoring ecosystems.

Brazil joins a small number of countries, including Panama and the UK, that have taken steps to bring their actions to tackle climate change and biodiversity loss into alignment.

The country seeks to ‘substantially increase’ nature finance from a range of sources

According to target 19 of the NBSAP, the Brazilian government will “develop and initiate” a national strategy to finance the actions laid out in the document by the end of 2026.

This financial plan “should aim to substantially increase…the volume of financial resources” for implementing the NBSAP.

These resources should come in the form of federal, state and municipal funding, international finance, private funding and incentives for preserving biodiversity, the document continues.

The accompanying action plan includes a number of specific mechanisms, which could be used to finance efforts to tackle nature loss. These include biodiversity credits, a regulated carbon market and the Tropical Forest Forever Facility.

Separately, the NBSAP sets out a goal in target 18 of identifying “subsidies and economic and fiscal incentives that are directly harmful to biodiversity” by the end of this year. Those identified subsidies should then be reduced or eliminated by 2030, it adds.

The document notes that the phaseout of harmful subsidies should be accompanied by an increase in incentives for “conservation, restoration and sustainable use of biodiversity”.

The NBSAP does “important work” in translating the targets of the GBF into “ambitious targets” in the national context, says Oscar Soria, co-founder and chief executive of civil-society organisation the Common Initiative

Soria tells Carbon Brief:

“While the document is laudable on many aspects and its implementation would change things for the better, the concrete financial means to make it a reality – funding it and halting the funding of activities going against it – are still lacking. In this regard, this NBSAP is a good example of the GBF’s problem at the global level.

“The hardest part of political negotiations will begin only now: in 2026, the Brazilian government will have to evaluate the cost of implementing the NBSAP and where finance will come from.”

Brazil’s plans for agriculture include ‘sustainable intensification’

Brazil is one of the world’s leading food producers, meeting 10% of global demand, according to its NBSAP.

It is also the world’s largest grower of soya beans and the second-largest cattle producer.

However, agriculture is also a major driver of biodiversity loss in Brazil, largely due to the clearing of rainforest or other lands for soya growing and cattle ranching. Agriculture itself is also affected by biodiversity loss, particularly the loss of pollinators. The NBSAP says:

“Biodiversity loss directly undermines agricultural production and human well-being, demonstrating that agriculture, other productive activities and biodiversity conservation are interdependent rather than antagonistic.”

Brazil’s NBSAP addresses sustainable agriculture in target 10A, which aims to “ensure that, by 2030, areas under agriculture, livestock, aquaculture and forestry are managed sustainably and integrated into the landscape”.

It lists several approaches to achieving sustainable production, including agroecology, regenerative agriculture and sustainable intensification.

Targets seven and 10B also pertain to food systems. Target seven seeks to reduce the impacts of pollution, including nutrient loss and pesticides, on biodiversity, while target 10B commits to the sustainable fishing and harvesting of other aquatic resources.

In 2021, Brazil launched its national low-carbon agriculture strategy, known as the ABC+ plan. The plan promotes sustainability in the agricultural sector through both adaptation and mitigation actions. 

Brazil conducted a largest-of-its-kind consultation process before releasing its NBSAP

Brazil was among the majority of nations to miss the UN deadline to submit a new NBSAP before the COP16 biodiversity summit in Colombia in October 2024.

At the time, a representative from the Brazilian government said that it was unable to meet the deadline because it was embarking on an ambitious consultation process for its NBSAP.

Braulio Dias, director of biodiversity conservation at the Brazilian Ministry of Environment, who is responsible for the NBSAP process, told Carbon Brief and the Guardian in 2024:

“Brazil is a huge country with the largest share of biodiversity [and] a large population with a complex governance. We are a federation with 26 states and 5,570 municipalities. We started the process to update our NBSAP in May last year and have managed to conclude a broad consultation process involving over a thousand people in face-to-face meetings.

“We are in the process of consolidating all proposals received, consulting all the departments of the Brazilian Ministry of the Environment and Climate Change, all the federal ministries and agencies engaged in the biodiversity agenda and the National Biodiversity Committee, before we can have a high-level political endorsement.

“Then we still have to build a monitoring strategy, a finance strategy and a communication strategy. We will only conclude this process toward the end of the year or early next year.”

In its NBSAP, the Brazilian government says it engaged with around 200 scientific and civil society organisations and 110 Indigenous representatives while preparing its NBSAP.

Around one-third of the Amazon is protected by Indigenous territories.

Indigenous peoples in Brazil have continuously called for more inclusion in UN processes to tackle climate change and nature loss, including by holding multiple demonstrations during the COP30 climate summit in November.

Michel Santos, public policy manager at WWF Brazil, says that many in Brazil’s civil society were pleased with the NBSAP’s extensive consultation process, telling Carbon Brief:

“Brazilian civil society is very happy with everything. It was a long process with broad participation. It took a while to be completed, but we consider the result quite satisfactory.”

The post Brazil’s biodiversity pledge: Six key takeaways for nature and climate change appeared first on Carbon Brief.

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