Welcome to Carbon Brief’s DeBriefed.
An essential guide to the week’s key developments relating to climate change.
This week
Shifting political players
EU LEADERSHIP: Ursula von der Leyen has secured another five years as president of the European Commission following a vote yesterday in which she won the backing of 401 MEPs – 40 more than needed, reported Bloomberg. In her reelection bid, von der Leyen committed to EU climate goals including the still-pending 90% emissions reduction by 2040 target and a new Clean Industrial Deal, Euractiv reported. However, the publication noted that her comments on nature protection were limited to “positive rhetoric” only.
PARIS PM: Elsewhere in Europe, veteran climate negotiator Laurence Tubiana has been proposed as the next French prime minister, with backing from the Socialist, Green and Communist parties in the current hung parliament, reported Climate Home News. Tubiana, who is currently CEO at the European Climate Foundation [which funds Carbon Brief], was one of the “architects” of the Paris Agreement in 2015, according to Bloomberg.
VANCE’S STANCE: In the US, Donald Trump’s newly selected running mate JD Vance has come under scrutiny for his climate scepticism. The Republican vice presidential candidate is “a staunch supporter of the oil and gas industry and an opponent of renewable energy”, according to the Independent, but has reportedly only held such views in recent years, a shift that coincides with his bid for Trump support. He also has investments in “green” technologies, reported E&E News, but the New York Times emphasised his public anti-climate sentiments and his sponsorship of green legislation repeals as a senator for Ohio.
AFRICAN COAL: In South Africa, a political ecologist wrote in the Conversation that the country’s newly appointed environment minister has shown support for continuing to use coal and said his government would not be “bullied” into transitioning away from fossil fuels too quickly. It comes as Agence France-Presse reported that the country’s president Cyril Ramaphosa has “reaffirmed the coal-dependent nation’s commitment to moving towards renewable energy, but insisted that communities and workers must not lose out”.
Labour must ‘make up lost ground’
KING’S SPEECH: The UK’s new Labour government has confirmed a legislative agenda with the environment “front and centre”, reported the Guardian. The king’s speech mentioned that the government will set up the publicly owned GB Energy to “own, manage and operate clean power projects” across the UK, reported BBC News. The company is set to be capitalised with an £8.3bn investment. Meanwhile, Politico reported that Labour is set to appoint a climate envoy, a role that has been empty for more than a year.
NEW ADVICE: The Climate Change Committee (CCC), which advises the UK government on its climate policies, released its annual progress report on Thursday, urging Labour to “make up lost ground” after a lack of sufficient action under the last Conservative government. Carbon Brief covered the recommendations in detail (more on this below). Elsewhere, the Times reported that Emma Pinchbeck, chief executive of the industry group Energy UK, has been appointed “preferred candidate” for the next chief executive of the CCC.
Around the world
- ‘HELLISHLY HOT’: A heatwave across southern Europe and the Balkans has led governments to issue severe weather warnings, said France 24, with temperatures rising above 40C.
- CHINA ‘THIRD PLENUM’: A communique from China’s highly influential “third plenum” meeting called for a “coordinated approach to carbon cutting, pollution reduction, green development and economic growth”, as well as for the country to “actively respond to climate change”, according to state news agency Xinhua.
- CARIBBEAN VULNERABILITY: In the aftermath of Hurricane Beryl, which killed at least a dozen people and destroyed infrastructure across the Caribbean, the Associated Press reported that officials are demanding more funding from “financial and development institutions” to rebuild and address climate change.
- PROTEST IN PERIL: Five UK climate activists from Just Stop Oil received record-length jail sentences of up to five years for a plan to block London’s M25 motorway, reported Reuters. Meanwhile, the right to peaceful protest in Australia is also “in peril”, the Guardian reported.
- GLOBAL FLOODS: Downpours and flooding have killed hundreds in South Asia, caused “emergency alerts” in China, left more than 50 people dead in Niger and caused damage in Toronto, Canada.
$8.4bn
The amount of debt eradicated through “debt-for-nature” swaps from 1987-2023.
$7.6tn
The total amount of debt service paid by low- and middle-income countries over the same timescale, illustrating how swap schemes are “far too small to have any impact”, experts told the Carbon Brief.
Latest climate research
- European “fire weather” – conditions favourable to the ignition and spread of wildfires – will become “more severe” due to climate change, showed a new study in Environmental Research Letters.
- Optimising the conversion of organic waste into biogas for energy has considerable decarbonisation potential in China, said new research in Nature Communications, which found that their proposed system could contribute 3.77% of the emissions reduction needed for the country’s 1.5C-aligned target.
- Nature-based solutions have “consistently proven to be a cost-effective approach” to address disaster risk, reported researchers in Science of the Total Environment.
(For more, see Carbon Brief’s in-depth daily summaries of the top climate news stories on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.)
Captured
UK emissions have been falling steadily for years, largely driven by the phaseout of coal and the growth of renewable power. However, only one-third of the reductions required to achieve the UK’s goal under the Paris Agreement of cutting emissions 68% by 2030 are covered by plans the CCC deems to be “credible”, according to its latest progress report. There is an even larger credibility gap for the sixth carbon budget for 2033-2037, with only a quarter of the cuts needed covered by “credible” policies. This is illustrated in the chart above, which shows the emissions cuts needed to reach net-zero (red), compared to cuts expected from policies that the CCC deems “credible”.
Spotlight
The climate impact of generative AI
Carbon Brief investigates the climate implications of the accelerating use of generative AI tools.
Google’s latest environmental report indicated that its total emissions have increased by almost 50% since 2019 and 13% year-on-year – a change it puts down to the growth of its data centres and rising emissions in its supply chain.
The report added that rolling out artificial intelligence (AI) services might make it “challenging” to cut emissions due to the “increasing energy demands from the greater intensity of AI compute”.
Since March, Google has been integrating its generative AI tool Gemini into search functions, matching the exponential uptick in day-to-day AI use through Chat-GPT, Microsoft Copilot and other such tools. (“Generative AI” is AI that is capable of generating text, images, videos or other data from scratch in response to a prompt.)
But there’s a catch: when a query is sent to a generative AI model (a process known as inference), it uses a lot more energy than a traditional search, creating an expectation that the energy demand of data centres will shoot up as a result.
Soaring energy demand
A recent study, still awaiting peer review, found that a multipurpose AI system could use up to 33 times more energy than computers running task-specific software and that generating two images with AI uses as much energy as charging a smartphone.
Dr Sasha Luccioni, AI and climate lead at AI company Hugging Face and lead author of the study, explained to Carbon Brief that multipurpose models “tend to be larger in size” and are trained for several different outputs, “which makes them more computationally-intensive”.
Training AI models before they are available for use also takes large amounts of energy. OpenAI’s GPT-3 required 1,287MWh during training, enough electricity to power 120 average US households for one year.
Direct energy consumption is not the only factor to consider. Felippa Amanta, a PhD researcher of digital services at the University of Oxford’s Environmental Change Institute, told Carbon Brief that “generative AI can have quite unpredictable indirect energy effects from how they’re being used by households”.
People are also using AI assistants for things they never needed it for before – a phenomenon Amanta explained as “induced demand”.
AI is changing our day-to-day behaviour, “from finding recipes, to writing emails, making CVs and the list goes on”, she said. It is this increase in user inference that can drive up data centre energy demands.
A report from the International Energy Agency (IEA), released today, said that the rise of AI was putting an increased focus on the energy use of data centres. (AI currently accounts for around 10% of data-centre electricity use.)
It said that electricity consumption from data centres as a whole accounted for a “limited” 1-1.3% share of global electricity demand in 2022. This could rise to between 1.5% and 3% by 2026, according to its projections. (By contrast, electric vehicles are expected to account for between less than 1.5% and 2% by 2026.)
The agency noted that expectations of future data centre energy demand growth were highly uncertain, depending on the uptake of AI services and the efficiency of the chips used to run them. (It noted that chipmaker Nvidia recently unveiled a new chip that was 25 times more energy efficient than previous models.)
As with any electricity-intensive technology, the climate impact of surging AI use will be determined by the extent to which renewables can meet the demand. In April, the Financial Times reported that fossil-fuel companies are hoping that surging energy demand from AI use will “usher in a golden era” for gas production.
Efficiency and regulation
On the flip side, AI has the potential to be a tool for climate action, chiefly by increasing energy efficiency. For example, AI could be used to improve the efficiency of power grids or daily commutes.
But as generative AI tools become integrated into our lives, there is a risk of a rebound effect, where the ease and ubiquity of AI solutions make us use services more, countering any efficiency savings, Amanta said.
Another issue facing the rapidly changing AI environment is a lack of transparency.
The climate impacts of AI models can potentially be mitigated by increasing their computational efficiency, powering data centres with clean energy, or using more task-specific models – but a lack of transparent data is slowing the development of legislation to regulate this shift, Dr Luccioni told Carbon Brief:
“The fact that we can’t get an accurate estimate of the energy usage or emissions of the many AI-enabled tools used by millions of people daily is problematic.”
Without understanding the scope of the issue, it is difficult to regulate energy intensity or add constraints on companies, she added. The IEA’s report also called for more reliable data.
Amanta pointed to examples of policies being proposed in the US and Singapore that recognise the environmental impacts of AI’s growth and aim to regulate their efficiency and sources of energy. The EU’s AI Act, which came into force in June, includes environmental considerations.
Watch, read, listen
SEA LEVEL RISE: A coastal village in Myanmar is being eroded away due to rising sea levels and residents are struggling to access fresh groundwater, reported the Mekong Eye.
CLIMATE CONFLICT: Earthrise released a video exploring the intersectionality of climate change and conflict, speaking to Sudanese climate activist, Watan Mohamed.
FACTCHECKING TWISTERS: The new tornado disaster film gets a lot of things right about climate science, said experts in Nature.
Coming up
- 15 July-2 August: Second part of the 29th Session of the International Seabed Authority Assembly and Council, Kingston, Jamaica
- 22-26 July: 27th Session of the FAO Committee on Forestry, Rome
- 25-26 July: G20 3rd Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors meeting, Rio de Janeiro
Pick of the jobs
- International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD), senior communications officer, India energy programme | Salary: Unknown. Location: Delhi, India (remote)
- Environment America, climate solutions associate | Salary: $32,500. Location: Pennsylvania, US
- Climate Outreach, fundraising administrator | Salary: £23,000. Location: Oxford, UK (remote)
Climate Central, vice president for science | Salary: $140,000-$160,000. Location: Princeton, New Jersey, US (remote)
DeBriefed is edited by Daisy Dunne. Please send any tips or feedback to debriefed@carbonbrief.org.
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The post DeBriefed 19 July 2024: New political players in EU and US; UK govt urged to make up ‘lost ground’ on targets; AI’s climate impact appeared first on Carbon Brief.
Forty-six countries, including major oil, coal and gas producers such as Canada, Australia, Brazil and Norway, have confirmed they will attend next month’s first conference on speeding up the global shift from fossil fuels, the Colombian government said on Tuesday.
The summit, being held in the Colombian port city of Santa Marta from April 24-29, aims to cement an international coalition of nations committed to ending the world’s reliance on planet-heating oil, coal and natural gas.
The conference represents an “unprecedented opportunity” for the energy transition as it brings hydrocarbon-producing nations together with fossil fuel consumers and countries at the forefront of the climate crisis, Colombia’s acting environment minister, Irene Vélez Torres, said in a statement.
“Despite our differences, all participants agree on the need to prioritize science and to move forward, urgently and in a coordinated manner, toward phasing out the production and consumption of natural gas, coal, and oil,” she added.
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Iran war could boost fossil fuel phase-out push, says Colombian minister
Colombia’s environment minister Irene Vélez Torres said she hopes that a new fossil fuel phase out summit in Santa Marta can cement a coalition of countries -
Pressure builds for fossil fuel transition plan at COP30
More than 80 countries issue a call for the summit outcome to include a commitment to develop a roadmap for the world to shift away from oil, gas and coal -
Colombia aims to launch fossil fuel transition platform at first global conference
The landmark summit aims to build the political and economic foundations to fast-track the shift away from coal, oil and gas, one of its organisers said
Who is going to Santa Marta?
Canada is the largest fossil fuel producer confirmed to attend. The country accounts for roughly 6% of global oil output and 5% of gas production, with both sectors expanding over the past decade, according to the Energy Institute.
Its powerful fossil fuel industry continues to push for increased production and new export markets, particularly in Asia. However, further investment risks creating stranded assets, according to a recent report by Carbon Tracker. Canada’s latest national climate plan did not include any concrete measures to curb its fossil fuel production.
Australia will also be represented in Santa Marta as co-host of the COP31 climate summit. One of the world’s largest exporters of coal and liquefied natural gas, Australia supplies energy-hungry markets across Asia. The centre-left government led by Anthony Albanese has approved 36 new or extended fossil fuel projects since taking office in 2022, according to the Climate Council.
Fellow COP31 co-host Turkey is also set to attend. Despite growing investment in renewables, the country remains heavily reliant on coal power. Murat Kurum, the incoming COP31 president, said last month that emissions cuts should not come at the expense of economic growth. “We cannot simplify things down to only fossil fuels,” he said.
Norway, another participant, has built its wealth on oil and gas exports and has become a key supplier to Europe following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. While positioning itself as a climate leader, Norway argues its relatively low-emissions production can help meet demand during the transition, a stance critics say undermines global efforts to phase out fossil fuels.
The list of participants also includes Brazil and Mexico, both among the world’s top oil producers; Angola, one of Africa’s leading oil exporters; Senegal, which only began producing oil two years ago; and Trinidad and Tobago, where hydrocarbons generate around half of government revenue. Vietnam remains heavily dependent on coal for power generation but is working with wealthy nations to accelerate a shift to renewables.
Notably absent are the world’s largest fossil fuel producers and consumers, including the United States, Saudi Arabia and Russia, which together account for nearly half of global oil production. The biggest coal producers, China and India, are also not on the current list of participants.
Attendees also include nations that are highly vulnerable to the climate crisis primarily caused by burning fossil fuels, including island nations Palau, Fiji and Vanuatu, and Sierra Leone.
More momentum than commitments
The Santa Marta conference is expected to deliver political momentum rather than binding commitments, with organisers aiming to launch a “coalition of the willing” to advance a fossil fuel phase-out outside the constraints of UN consensus negotiations.
The outcomes of the summit are also expected to inform discussions at COP31, where an informal roadmap to transition away from fossil fuels drafted by the Brazilian COP30 team is expected to be delivered.
Ugandan farmers use British court to try to stop East Africa oil pipeline
Andreas Sieber, head of political strategy at campaign group 350.org, told Climate Home News that “starting with a coalition of doers creates momentum”.
“This also comes at a critical point in time, when ordinary people bear the cost of fossil fuel volatility and geopolitical shocks,” he added. “These countries can demonstrate what credible transition looks like and compel others to follow”.
Colombia’s Vélez Torres said last week that the global energy shock triggered by the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran could give countries the chance to build a “new geopolitical balance” by boosting the transition away from fossil fuels.
The post Major oil producers among 46 nations joining fossil fuel phase-out summit appeared first on Climate Home News.
Major oil producers among 46 nations joining fossil fuel phase-out summit
CANBERRA, Tuesday 31 March 2026 — Greenpeace Australia Pacific has welcomed the Parliament’s ratification of the Global Ocean Treaty, creating the opportunity for world-first high seas ocean sanctuaries.
Environment Minister Murray Watt today announced the treaty, the most significant global nature protection agreement in a decade, will be ratified by the Australian parliament. The bill has now passed the Senate and House of Representatives with support from the major parties, clearing the final hurdle towards ratification.
David Ritter, CEO at Greenpeace Australia Pacific, said: “Ratifying the Global Ocean Treaty is genuinely historic. At a time of unprecedented pressure from destructive industrial fishing, severe climate impacts, plastic pollution and mining, Australia has chosen to join the global effort to protect our magnificent oceans.”
Australia was one of the first countries to sign its intent to ratify the treaty in 2023, and we have a long and distinguished history of leadership on global ocean protection. Under the new treaty Australia has the necessary legal tools to drive the creation of high seas ocean sanctuaries.
“The Global Ocean Treaty is the most significant global nature agreement for many years, and has the power to protect the world’s high seas and safeguard precious and endangered wildlife,” Ritter added.
“With the Treaty now in force, Australia has an important opportunity to drive the creation of ocean sanctuaries on the high seas that are fully protected, no-take zones, which will allow wildlife populations to recover and thrive.
“We thrill at the whales and albatross, and all of the animals of the deep wild oceans, great and small–and now the world has the legal ability to protect them by creating high seas sanctuaries; massive parks at sea where nature can thrive.
“We are an island nation of ocean lovers, and all Australians are entitled to expect that our government will take this incredible new opportunity to protect the ocean.”
Greenpeace is calling on the Australian government to build on our national legacy by ensuring that this landmark agreement delivers lasting protection for our precious oceans.
“We’re calling on Minister Watt to create five high seas sanctuaries in our region, starting with a large ocean sanctuary in the Tasman Sea, between Australia and Aotearoa-New Zealand.”
Currently, less than 1 per cent of the global ocean is highly or fully protected. Closing the High Seas protection gap from under 1 per cent to 30 per cent in four years, to meet the globally-agreed 30×30 target, will require governments to protect ocean areas larger than entire continents and to do so faster than any conservation effort in history. Australia will now have a seat at the table for the very first Oceans COP, due before February 2027, where nations will discuss the design and implementation of the treaty.
—ENDS—
For more information or to arrange an interview, please contact Vai Shah on +61 452 290 082 or vai.shah@greenpeace.org
High res images and footage of Australia’s oceans can be found here
Ocean Treaty passes Australian Parliament, a “historic moment” for nature protection
Climate Change
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Father Joe Mitchell works to create a “new story” that recognizes the interconnectedness of people and nature.
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