Welcome to Carbon Brief’s China Briefing.

China Briefing handpicks and explains the most important climate and energy stories from China over the past fortnight. Subscribe for free here.

Key developments

China reaffirmed climate stance 

TRUMP WITHDRAWS: A government spokesperson said China’s “resolve and actions to actively respond to climate change will remain unchanged” at a press conference on 21 January. Asked by the New York Times to respond to president Donald Trump withdrawing the US from the Paris Agreement again, foreign ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun said China was “concerned” and that “China will work with all parties to…promote a global green and low-carbon transition for the shared future of humanity”, state-supporting Global Times reported. At the World Economic Forum in Davos, China’s vice premier Ding Xuexiang reiterated that the world needs to “jointly tackle global challenges”, including climate change and energy security, said the Hong Kong-based South China Morning Post (SCMP).

BYE BYE BIDEN: Before leaving the White House, outgoing US president Joe Biden urged his successor to “tackle China’s ‘overcapacity’ and dominance in clean-energy supply chains, calling it a competition the US ‘must win’”, SCMP reported. Jennifer Granholm, Biden’s energy secretary, wrote in the New York Times that “it is no secret China wants to dominate the global market” for electric vehicles (EV) under the headline: “China will be thrilled if Trump kills America’s green economy.” One of the Biden administration’s last moves was finalising rules that will “effectively bar nearly all Chinese cars and trucks” from the US, said Reuters. He also barred five Chinese solar companies – allegedly using forced labour in Xinjiang – from entering the US market, reported the New York Times. The move has led to criticism from China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, which denied the forced labour claims, said BJX News. BBC News reported that tariffs from the US, Canada and the EU could force China to turn to “emerging markets”, but as the new markets “don’t have the same levels of demand…that could impact Chinese businesses that are hoping to expand, in turn hitting suppliers of energy and raw materials”. A comment for Dialogue Earth by analysts at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) said emerging markets in the global south are already driving China’s export growth.

New UK, EU-China geopolitical situation

REEVES IN BEIJING: UK chancellor Rachel Reeves visited China between 10-13 January and “secured benefits worth up to £1bn for the UK economy”, reported the Guardian. According to a UK government document, both sides agreed to “deeper cooperation across areas such as financial services, trade, investment and the climate to support secure growth”, while also agreeing on “strengthening the existing UK-China clean energy partnership”. An unbylined comment piece in China’s state-supporting Global Times said that “China-UK relations have shown signs of warming up”. It added that Reeves responded that the UK would “make decisions in our national interest” when asked whether it would follow the US and EU in imposing tariffs on Chinese EVs. Meanwhile, Zheng Zeguang, the Chinese ambassador to the UK, called on both sides to “maintain the momentum and focus on cooperation” at an event in London attended by Carbon Brief.

EU-CHINA TENSIONS: Just before Reeves’ arrival, China had “concluded that the EU’s recent [anti-subsidies] investigations into Chinese enterprises…were ‘unfair and non-transparent’”, SCMP reported. However, Beijing did not confirm whether it would “take any retaliatory measures in light of the probe’s findings”, added the newspaper. Bloomberg reported that the EU was “set to warn” that the bloc is “facing stiffening pressure” from nations including China. China’s president Xi Jinping, nevertheless, told European Council president Antonio Costa that “China has always regarded Europe as an important pole in a multipolar world”, reported Xinhua. In her own Davos speech, European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen noted concerns over “a second China shock – because of state-sponsored over-capacity”, but said “we should…strive for mutual benefits in our conversation with China”.

Analysts debate China’s oil demand peak

OIL PEAKING?: As much as 10% of China’s oil-refining capacity could be closed in the next 10 years due to “an earlier-than-expected peak” in oil demand, Reuters reported. Chinese oil imports in 2024 fell 1.9% to 11.04m barrels per day, the “first annual decline in two decades outside of pandemic-induced falls”, another Reuters article said. A Financial Times “big read” – titled “Has China already reached peak oil?” – attributed the decline to China’s property crisis and rising electrification of transport. It quoted the head of oil giant Saudi Aramco claiming plastic and petrochemical demand could sustain demand going forward, but also quoted an International Energy Agency analyst saying the decline in transport oil use would outweigh this. The sale of petrol-powered cars in China “plunged” last year, as sales of all types of EVs rose more than 40%, according to the Associated Press.

COAL POWER-UP: China’s thermal power generation – largely coal – rose 1.5% in 2024 to 6,340 terawatt-hours (TWh), Reuters reported, “defying “expectations that coal generation was peaking”. However, the aggregate data mask a “very significant breakpoint”, it quoted CREA lead analyst Lauri Myllyvirta saying, as an 11% “spike” in coal-fired power growth in January and February was followed by a plateau from March to November. Total power consumption reached 9,852TWh, up 6.8% year-on-year, BJX News reported. On Twitter, David Fishman, senior manager at consultancy Lantau Group, said growth in power consumption in the past six months of 2024 “was considerably slower than in the [first] half of the year”.

RENEWABLE RECORDS: China has broken its “own records for new wind and solar power installations again” in 2024, reported Reuters. Solar capacity grew to nearly 890 gigawatts (GW), up 45% – or 277GW – year-on-year, Jiemian reported, while wind capacity grew 79GW to around about 520GW. The news outlet added that thermal power “is still the largest source of electricity” in China overall. To “keep pace with surging renewable generation”, China’s State Grid Corporation will spend 650bn yuan ($89bn) – a record amount – on upgrading the nation’s power infrastructure this year, Bloomberg said. It added that most of this would likely go to “ultra-high-voltage power lines” and “smaller networks linking rooftop solar panels”.

Annual environment conference

MEE CONFERENCE: China’s Ministry of Ecology and Environment (MEE) confirmed eight “key tasks” for 2025, including expanding the national carbon market and promoting “green, low-carbon and high-quality development”, at its annual work conference on 14-15 January, reported Shanghai-based media outlet the Paper. The ministry also announced that “approximately 80% of the nation’s crude steel production capacity has undergone either comprehensive ultra-low emission transformations or targeted upgrades in key segments of their production processes”, according to the Communist party-affiliated People’s Daily. At a separate press conference, MEE said it has approved environmental investments worth 980bn yuan ($133bn) in 2024, while pledging to “refine the conviction and sentencing standards for falsifying environmental assessments” within the legal system in China.

EMISSIONS ACCOUNTING: Meanwhile, China released its first “national database of emission factors” for “improving the accuracy” of greenhouse gas emission calculations, Science and Technology Daily reported. It also released the “first batch of carbon footprint accounting rules”, covering steel, cement, EV batteries and 12 other “industrial products”, said China Energy Network.

Spotlight

Q&A: How China became the world’s leading market for energy storage

China is the world’s largest market for energy storage, followed by the US and Europe, according to BloombergNEF. The storage industry has attracted investments worth hundreds of billions of yuan and rapidly developed in recent years.

However, rapid growth has caused other problems, such as “temporary structural overcapacity” and low utilisation.

In this issue, Carbon Brief explores how China has been driving the sector forwards and how it fits into the nation’s wider energy transition. The full article is available on Carbon Brief’s website.

Soaring battery deployment

China is experiencing a renewable energy boom, adding a massive 301 gigawatts (GW) of renewable capacity, including solar, wind and hydro, in 2023 alone – more than the total renewable generating capacity installed in most countries over all time.

However, the country’s power system still struggles to absorb all of the generation, making energy storage – which bridges temporal and geographical gaps between energy supply and demand – a key tool for the country to improve its renewable energy integration.

Pumped hydro storage is the most common utility-scale storage system and has a long history in China. As of 2023, pumped hydro storage surpassed 50GW, making up more than half of the country’s overall storage capacity.

The remaining half is comprised primarily of batteries and emerging technologies, such as compressed air and flywheels, as well as thermal energy.

These technologies, known as the “new type” energy storage in China, have seen rapid growth in recent years. Lithium-ion batteries dominate the “new type” sector.

The deployment of “new type” energy storage capacity almost quadrupled in 2023 in China, increasing to 31.4GW, up from just 8.7 GW in 2022, according to data from the National Energy Administration (NEA).

This means that China surpassed its target of reaching 30GW of the “new type” energy storage by 2025 two years earlier than planned. The goal had been set by the NEA and China’s top economic planner the National Development and Reform Commission, under the 14th “five year plan”.

(Read Carbon Brief’s Q&A: What does China’s 14th ‘five year plan’ mean for climate change?)

High deployment, low usage

To promote battery storage, China has implemented a number of policies, most notably the gradual rollout since 2017 of the “mandatory allocation of energy storage” policy (强制配储政策), which is also known as the “new energy plus storage” model (新能源+储能).

Under the mandate, which applies in dozens of provinces, renewable companies are required to include a certain amount of energy storage capacity alongside new solar and wind generation projects, with the storage allocation rate ranging between 5% to 20%.

Cheaper costs led by technology innovation have also helped the market’s increasing adoption of batteries, Sun Yongping, researcher of emissions trading and vice-dean of the Institute of State Governance at Huazhong University of Science and Technology, told Carbon Brief.

Despite its positive intentions, the mandatory storage policy has had unintended consequences. Notably, a significant portion of the installed storage capacity remains underutilised.

In regions covered by the State Grid – the government-owned operator that runs the majority of the country’s electricity transmission network – more than four-fifths of the storage systems operate less than 10% of the time, with many used only once every two days, according to a Bloomberg report.

Another challenge, according to Guo, is the additional project costs and lack of effective incentives, as many storage facilities were built or rented to fulfil government requirements, but went unused afterwards.

Both Guo and Sun argue that China needs a deeper level of electricity market pricing reforms to create incentives to use storage.

Guo said: “We still hope that each place deploys new energy storage according to its needs and understands its own situation instead of adopting a ‘one-size-fits-all’ approach.”

‘New driving force’ for economy

Earlier this year, the NEA named the energy storage sector as a “new driving force” for the country’s “new quality productive forces ” (NQPF).

(Read more on Carbon Brief’s Q&A: “What China’s push for ‘new quality productive forces’ means for climate action.”)

Regional governments also saw the economic opportunity in energy storage. Guangdong, for example, aimed to make energy storage a “strategic pillar industry” by 2025.

Meanwhile, Zhejiang, Anhui and Guangdong also have ambitious targets of installing local storage capacity of 3GW each by 2025, according to a recent tally by Greenpeace East Asia, based on government documents.

The booming market has attracted more than 100bn yuan ($14bn) since 2021.

But risks of market turmoil also exist. According to battery industrial information provider Gaogong Industrial Institute, last year China saw more than 70,000 newly registered companies in the sector, which indicated that the market – already seeing fierce competition – may now be undergoing an “overcapacity” period.

Guo said this period of “overcapacity”, however, is “temporary”. She adds:

“There exists a temporary structural overcapacity, as the current expansion of new type energy storage is outpacing the market needs.

“However, if the regional governments could provide more policy support for the application of storage projects, this ‘excess capacity’ due to insufficient market demand could be avoided.”

This Spotlight was written by freelance climate journalist Yuan Ye for Carbon Brief.

Watch, read, listen

CARBON ‘SPIRIT’: Zheng Shanjie, head of China’s top planner National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), wrote a comment for People’s Daily about the “spirit” of the Central Committee of the Communist party, including insisting on the “dual-carbon” goals.

PARIS ‘THREATS’: Caixin published a speech by former Chinese central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan arguing that the Paris Agreement faces “mounting threats”, with funding for climate change initiatives “remain[ing] critically insufficient”.

CBAM SOLUTION: A comment for the 21st Century Business Herald by Lin Boqiang, dean at the China Institute for Studies in Energy Policy of Xiamen University, discussed developing China’s carbon market as a response to the EU’s carbon border tariff (CBAM).

US-CHINA CLIMATE: US thinktank the Brookings Institution released a video recording of a panel discussion on the “evolving dynamics of US-China relations on climate change and green technology”.  

New science

Maximum carbon uptake potential through progressive management of plantation forests in Guangdong province, China
Communications Earth & Environment

Harvesting young planted forests and then replanting over a 20-year period could sequester 2.5 times more carbon than simply preserving forests, according to new research on China’s Guangdong province. The authors used satellite data, forest growth models and machine learning to identify “key drivers of carbon accumulation”. The study found that the optimal scenario for carbon sequestration, described above, “could yield a potential carbon stock of 0.5 gigatonnes of carbon by 2060, without expanding forest cover”.

Evaluation and future projection of compound extreme events in China using CMIP6 models
Climate change

A new study evaluated the simulation performance of CMIP6 climate models for “six types of compound extreme event” in China. The research found four major results including “the performance of general circulation models (GCMs) in the simulation of extreme temperature indices is better than that for extreme precipitation indices, and positive biases exist in extreme precipitation indices for most models”. It added that the frequency of warm extremes may increase in the future, while cold extremes showed a decreasing trend.

China Briefing is compiled by Wanyuan Song and Anika Patel. It is edited by Wanyuan Song and Dr Simon Evans. Please send tips and feedback to china@carbonbrief.org

China Briefing 9 January 2025: 2025 government priorities; China’s first energy law; What to watch in year ahead

China Briefing

|

09.01.25

China Briefing 12 December 2024: Export controls; Carbon concentration figures; ‘War on sand’

China Briefing

|

12.12.24

China Briefing 28 November 2024: How China approached COP29; Xi cuts energy deals in South America; Solar’s ‘disorderly’ expansion

China Briefing

|

28.11.24

China Briefing 14 November 2024: COP29 special edition

China Briefing

|

14.11.24

The post China Briefing 23 January 2025: China’s climate ‘concern’ over Trump; Peak oil debate; China’s energy storage lead appeared first on Carbon Brief.

China Briefing 23 January 2025: China’s climate ‘concern’ over Trump; Peak oil debate; China’s energy storage lead

Over the past decade, coal power use in the European Union (EU) has fallen by 61%, according to Carbon Brief analysis of new figures from energy analysts Ember. 

Solar power output in the EU more than tripled between 2014 and 2024, the report shows, with last year seeing coal generation overtaken for the first time.

Meanwhile, wind generation has more than doubled over the same period.

Wind and solar growth over the past decade pushed EU fossil-fuel generation in 2024 to its lowest level in 40 years, despite the long-term decline of nuclear power.

The increase in wind and solar generation in the EU also helped avoid €59bn in fossil-fuel imports over the past five years, Ember says.

Without the increase in solar and wind capacity since 2019, the EU would have imported an extra 92bn cubic metres (bcm) of gas and 55m tonnes (Mt) of hard coal. Ember says this helped avoid cumulative emissions of some 460m tonnes of carbon dioxide (MtCO2).

Accelerated wind and solar growth facilitated by permitting reform and other measures could help the EU end Russian energy imports entirely, adds Ember.

Five years of falling fossil fuels

Last year marked five years since the passing of the European Green Deal, officially declaring a “climate emergency” and requiring the European Commission to adapt all its proposals to fall in line with limiting global warming to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels. 

Since then, the EU’s electricity sector has seen a “deep transformation”, according to Ember, with a “surge” in renewables driving down the use of fossil fuels and related CO2 emissions.

In 2019, fossil fuels provided 39% – some 1,130 terawatt hours (TWh) – of the EU’s electricity, while renewables provided 34% (979TWh). By the end of 2024, fossil fuels had fallen to 29% (793TWh) – the lowest level in at least 40 years – while renewables had grown to nearly half of the mix (47%, 1,300TWh).

The growth of wind and solar ensured that, despite a decline in nuclear over the past 10 years, coal and gas are both being squeezed out of the electricity generation mix in the EU, as shown in the chart below.

The growth of solar and wind over the past five years has cumulatively avoided 736TWh of fossil-fired generation. This is equivalent to 460m tonnes of CO2 (MtCO2), or roughly the same as the power-sector emissions of Italy over the past five years, Ember states.

The emissions intensity of electricity fell by 26% over this period, to 213 grams of CO2 per kilowatt hour (gCO2 per kWh). This is a steeper decline than that seen in other major economies such as the US, notes Ember, where the emissions intensity of electricity generation fell by 13% over the same period.

Over the past five years, EU solar capacity tripled from 120 gigawatts (GW) to 338GW, continuing the rapid expansion seen in the previous five years. Wind capacity has grown by 37%, from 169GW in 2019 to 231GW in 2024.

Hydropower capacity since the passage of the Green New Deal has remained flat at 130GW and nuclear capacity has fallen from 110GW to 96GW, Ember notes.

The continued growth of wind and solar means EU electricity generation from coal has now dropped by nearly two thirds over the past decade, as the chart below shows. This is despite a small, temporary uptick in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2021.

Moreover, while gas-fired generation in 2024 was slightly higher than it was a decade earlier, it has also dropped every year for the past five years, Ember’s data shows.

Without the growth in renewables since the Green New Deal was brought in, the EU would have spent €59bn on fossil-fuel imports for power generation, according to Ember. Of this, €53bn would have been spent on gas and €6bn on coal.

In total, the EU avoided importing approximately 92bcm, or around 18% of gas consumed in the power sector between the end of 2019 and the end of 2024. It also avoided imports of 55Mt of hard coal.

Coal has been particularly impacted by the growth of solar and wind, falling from 16% of the EU electricity mix in 2019 to less than 10% in 2024. This has more than cancelled out the impact of the temporary uptick in 2021 and 2022 during the gas crisis. 

In 2024, coal provided less than 5% of the power mix in 16 EU countries, Ember says, 10 of which had no operating coal power plants.

Portugal phased coal out of its electricity mix completely and a new wave of coal power plant closures is “imminent”, says Ember. There are 11 EU countries that have announced plans to totally phase out coal from their electricity mix in the next five years. 

Along with the fall in coal power, gas fell by a quarter over the past five years from providing 20% of EU power in 2019 to 16% in 2024, according to Ember.

This drop has contributed to efforts to limit EU reliance on Russian gas, although imports from the nation still accounted for 14% of total gas consumption in 2024.

While this was down from around 50% in 2019, it was an increase of 18% on the previous year, mainly due to increased imports into Italy, the Czech Republic and France.

According to Ember, the power sector consumed approximately 88bcm of gas in 2024, of which 10bcm (12%) was Russian, as shown in the figure below. These imports provided the country with an estimated €4bn in revenue.

Even with the uptick in 2024, the EU’s power sector is far less reliant on importing Russian gas than it was five years earlier, Ember’s data shows.

Solar continues to surge

There was a record increase in solar generation in 2024, up 54TWh (+22%) year-on-year, according to Ember. This is despite the sector having already seen growth of 40TWh in 2023.

Additionally, 2024 saw record annual capacity additions, with the EU solar fleet growing by 66GW, 4% more than the 63GW addition seen in 2023.

This growth rate is above what national targets would require and nearly sufficient to hit the EU’s 2030 goal, notes Ember, as shown in the figure below.

Ember says this is “highlighting a disconnect between the rapid pace of on-the-ground market trends and the slow response of governments in updating their targets”.

In 2024, solar output grew in all EU members and 16 countries generated more than 10% of their electricity from the technology, the report notes – three more than the previous year.

However, in some countries, solar is getting close to exceeding demand during peak hours, according to Ember. Its report says that 12 EU countries saw solar generating 80% or more of power demand for at least one hour in 2024.

As such, plentiful solar is pushing hourly power prices to zero or even below. In 2024, negative or zero price hours became more common, growing from 2% of hours in 2023 to 4% in 2024 across the EU. 

The increase in negative pricing periods highlights the business case for more flexibility options, notes Ember, with consumers able to save money by shifting demand to periods of abundant generation or using battery storage to take advantage of low-cost solar generation by selling it back to the grid during demand peaks.

While the deployment of battery storage has been growing in recent years – doubling to 16GW in 2023 from 8GW in 2022, the report notes – capacity is concentrated in a small number of countries, with Germany and Italy together housing 70% of existing battery capacity in the EU as of the end of 2023.

Additionally, demand flexibility and smart electrification could help consumers reduce their bills, Ember states. Grids and cross-border interconnectors can help to provide additional flexibility across the EU, it adds.

Wind woes easing

Beyond solar, wind generation grew 7TWh year-on-year in 2024, to reach 477TWh, according to Ember.

While this growth is lower than the average of 30TWh seen between 2019 and 2023, the technology remains cost-competitive with fossil power and installation rates are expected to increase in coming years, the report says.

Between 2010 and 2021, the cost of European onshore and offshore wind fell by 68% and 60%, respectively, Ember notes, based on levelised costs, a standardised metric used to gauge the average cost of electricity generation of a technology. 

However, wind costs have broadly plateaued since then, according to the report, due to high inflation and supply chain problems following the Covid-19 pandemic and the global energy crisis. 

While these issues have affected a range of sectors, the wind industry has felt them more acutely than solar, according to Ember, due to longer lead times and relatively higher upfront investment requirements.

This has been seen around the world, with the UK and the US amongst the nations to have seen their wind sectors knocked by higher prices. 

Despite the impact of these factors on the deployment costs of wind, it remains competitive compared to gas generation, argues Ember. The price of buying gas fuel on European markets has grown throughout 2024, sitting at around €50 per megawatt hour (MWh) at the end of the year – well above the pre-crisis norm of €20/MWh.

As such, the average short-run marginal cost of EU gas-fired power across 2024 reached a high of around €125/MWh in December, continues Ember. This remains above the typical costs of both onshore and offshore wind. 

In addition to facing macroeconomic headwinds, Ember says that expanding grids, permitting new projects and managing grid connections have been “inadequate for the pace of the energy transition”.

Action is being taken by governments within the EU however, for example, rules brought in to cut the permitting times for onshore wind from six years to two years. 

Permitting rates were higher in the first half of 2024 than the previous year in most markets, which Ember says boosts confidence that the project pipeline for wind is strengthening.

In Germany, for example, approvals reached 12GW, up by 60% compared to the same period in 2023, notes the report.

Turbine orders also recovered, up 40% between January and September 2024 compared to the same period in 2023, while auctions awarded contracts to a record 28GW of new capacity across the EU in 2024.

However, while there are signs of growth, delays in recent years have created a wider delivery gap between market forecasts and EU ambition, the report notes.

In a statement, Dr Chris Rosslowe, senior analyst and lead author of the report, says:

“While the EU’s electricity transition has moved faster than anyone expected in the last five years, further progress cannot be taken for granted…However, the achievements of the past five years should instil confidence that, with continued drive and commitment, challenges can be overcome and a more secure energy future be achieved.”

The report calls on the EU to build on the momentum seen in the past five years. Ember suggests this could include ending Russian energy imports, supporting the European wind industry and enacting permitting reforms, among other changes.

US emissions ‘unchanged’ in 2024 despite coal power at lowest level since 1967

Emissions

|

09.01.25

Analysis: China’s emissions have now caused more global warming than EU

Emissions

|

19.11.24

Analysis: Global CO2 emissions will reach new high in 2024 despite slower growth

Emissions

|

13.11.24

UNEP: New climate pledges need ‘quantum leap’ in ambition to deliver Paris goals

Emissions

|

24.10.24

The post EU’s solar and wind growth pushes fossil-fuel power to lowest level in 40 years appeared first on Carbon Brief.

EU’s solar and wind growth pushes fossil-fuel power to lowest level in 40 years

While the primary focus of tackling climate change is on carbon dioxide (CO2), a group of other greenhouse gases and aerosols – known as “super pollutants” – is having a profound impact on both global temperature and human health.

They are responsible for around 45% of global warming to date, as well as millions of premature deaths each year.

Cutting emissions of these non-CO2 pollutants, which include methane, hydrofluorocarbons and black carbon, is seen as one of the quickest ways to tackle climate change.

Studies have shown how global action to reduce emissions of super pollutants could avoid four times more warming by 2050 than decarbonisation policies alone.

At the same time, it could prevent some 2.4 million deaths a year caused by air pollution. 

And, yet, emissions of many super pollutants are soaring. 

In this article, we unpack what super pollutants are and why they have an outsized impact on the climate and public health.

The other 45%

CO2 is responsible for around 55% of global warming to date. The other 45% comes from super pollutants: methane; black carbon; fluorinated gases; nitrous oxide; and tropospheric ozone.

These pollutants are present at lower concentrations in the atmosphere than CO2. But each tonne of these substances has a more powerful warming impact than a tonne of CO2 – up to tens of thousands of times more. As a result, they are still responsible for a lot of warming.

Most super pollutants remain in the atmosphere for less time than CO2, ranging from a few days to a few decades. These are known collectively as “short-lived climate pollutants”.

Others, including nitrous oxide and some fluorinated gases, can have very long lifetimes – even tens of thousands of years in some cases.

As well as being substantial contributors to global warming, super pollutants are a major threat to human health.

Poor air quality caused by these pollutants has been linked to a series of heart and respiratory diseases, as well as lung cancer and strokes.

Methane, black carbon and tropospheric ozone are the super pollutants with the most significant impacts on health.

Methane

Methane is the second-largest contributor to climate change after CO2. In its first 20 years in the atmosphere, when it is most potent, methane has a warming potential more than 80 times greater than CO2.

Methane has both human-related and natural sources. Global human-caused methane emissions come from three main areas:

• Agriculture (~40%), such as from livestock and rice production.
• Fossil fuels (~35%), as a by-product of fossil fuel extraction, storage and distribution.
• Waste (~20%), from food and other organic materials decaying in landfills and wastewater.

Recent research has shown that methane emissions have continued to rise, with “no hint of a decline”. According to the World Meteorological Organization, atmospheric concentrations of methane in 2023 were 265% higher than pre-industrial levels.

Methane impacts public health indirectly in a number of ways.

By increasing atmospheric temperatures, disrupting rainfall patterns and contributing to the formation of tropospheric ozone, emissions of the gas contribute to crop failures which exacerbate food insecurity. The gas has been estimated to cause up to 12% of annual agricultural losses of staple crops.

Increased food insecurity has a number of implications for human health. Research has indicated that nearly half of deaths among children under five are linked to undernutrition. These mostly occur in low- and middle-income countries. 

However, the biggest impact methane has on health is its contribution to the creation of tropospheric ozone.

Tropospheric ozone

Tropospheric ozone is among the shortest-lived super pollutants, with an atmospheric lifetime of just days to weeks.

But, despite its short-lived nature, the greenhouse gas has a major impact on human health. It has been linked to around 600,000 to 1 million premature respiratory deaths annually and a similar number of premature cardiovascular deaths. 

The greenhouse gas does not have any direct sources, but is formed when hydrocarbons – including methane, volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and carbon monoxide – react with nitrogen oxides in the presence of sunlight.

Concentrations of this harmful pollutant are rising. Soaring emissions of its precursor gas – methane – are believed to be responsible for up to half of the observed increase.

As a major component of smog, tropospheric ozone can worsen bronchitis and emphysema, trigger asthma and permanently damage lung tissue. Children, the elderly and people with lung or cardiovascular diseases are particularly at risk from ozone exposure.

In addition to harming human health, studies have shown that many species of plants are sensitive to ozone, including agricultural crops, grassland and trees. Tropospheric ozone damages plants in many ways, including by entering pores in their leaves and burning plant tissue during respiration. 

As a result, ozone emissions are a growing threat to food security. 

Black carbon

Black carbon is formed by the incomplete combustion of wood, biofuels and fossil fuels in a process which also creates carbon dioxide, carbon monoxide and VOCs.

Commonly known as soot, black carbon has a warming impact up to 1,500 times stronger than CO2 per tonne. The  pollutant dims sunlight that reaches the Earth, interferes with rainfall patterns and disrupts monsoons. Where it settles on snow and ice, it reduces reflectivity and increases melt rates.

Black carbon is a major component of fine particulate matter air pollution (PM2.5), which has been linked to a raft of negative health outcomes, including premature death in adults with heart and lung disease, strokes, heart attacks, chronic respiratory diseases such as bronchitis, aggravated asthma and other cardio-respiratory symptoms.

Each year, around 4–8 million deaths globally are associated with long-term exposure to PM2.5. 

While untangling how many deaths are directly attributable to black carbon is tricky, there is growing evidence of its specific health impacts.

Studies have shown that exposure to black carbon correlates with high blood-pressure levels more strongly than PM2.5 overall. Exposure to the pollutant in pregnancy has also been found to impact the development and health of newborn children and is associated with reduced birthweight.

An integrated approach to climate and health

There has been growing political momentum around the threat of super pollutants.

One clear example of this is  the Global Methane Pledge, an initiative launched at the COP26 climate summit in Glasgow in 2021. The pledge, which has been backed by 158 countries and the European Union, commits governments to collectively reduce global human-caused methane emissions by at least 30% below 2020 levels by 2030. 

However, methane emissions are going in the wrong direction. Emissions are currently on track to increase by 5-13% above 2020 levels by 2030, according to a 2022 analysis from the Climate and Clean Air Coalition and United Nations Environment Programme.

Building awareness of the health consequences of climate change can encourage policymakers to set ambitious limits on super pollutant emissions. It can also underline the importance of a joined-up policy approach to climate and health, where emissions reduction pledges can help spur policies that improve lives.

The Global Methane Pledge and the Kigali Amendment – an international agreement to reduce the production and use of hydrofluorocarbons – are just two pledges that could have immediate and dramatic effects on public health, if fully implemented. 

Cutting emissions of super pollutants is one of the most effective ways to “keep 1.5C alive” in the near-term, while protecting health and avoiding tipping points that could cause irreversible shifts in the Earth system. 

Combined with the health benefits, rapidly reducing emissions of these pollutants is a clear win-win for people and the planet.

Analysis: Only five proposals for coal plants remain across OECD’s 38 countries

Guest posts

|

19.12.24

Guest post: The conflicting practices in using land to tackle climate change

Guest posts

|

05.12.24

Guest post: How the Greenland ice sheet fared in 2024

Guest posts

|

26.11.24

Guest post: What 1.5C overshoot would mean for climate impacts and adaptation

Global temperature

|

11.11.24

The post Guest post: How ‘super pollutants’ harm human health and worsen climate change appeared first on Carbon Brief.

Guest post: How ‘super pollutants’ harm human health and worsen climate change