Published

1 year ago

January 15, 2025

Alice Rush

Welcome to Carbon Brief’s Cropped.
We handpick and explain the most important stories at the intersection of climate, land, food and nature over the past fortnight.

This is an online version of Carbon Brief’s fortnightly Cropped email newsletter. Subscribe for free here.

Key developments

LA up in flames

ANIMAL IMPACT: At least 25 people died in blazing wildfires that tore through 40,000 acres of land in Los Angeles, NBC News reported. Vox examined how the fires “affected the animals and wildlife who call Los Angeles their home”. Videos showed people evacuating with everything from chickens to horses, Vox said, and one animal shelter took in more than 300 animals. Gavin Jones, an ecologist at the US Forest Service, told the outlet in 2023: “In this new era of rapidly changing fire regimes, we don’t have a great roadmap for how to conserve wildlife.” Al Jazeera explained that wildfires can result in “some wildlife [losing] their habitat”, which can lead to ecosystem imbalance.

AGRI AFFECTED: The fires affected farm infrastructure and animals in the surrounding region, an agricultural meteorologist told RFD TV. A citrus and avocado farm in Pauma Valley, more than two hours from Los Angeles, was impacted by the fire-fuelling Santa Ana winds. Farmer Andy Lyall told ABC News that gusts blew down fruit from his trees, ruining around half of his crops. The “strong and gusty” Santa Ana winds occur several times a year in southern California, BBC News outlined, creating “ripe conditions” for wildfires. (See Carbon Brief’s article on the role of climate change in the fires.)

PARKS AND TREES: Satellite images published in Al Jazeera showed how houses, trees and other infrastructure were scorched in the fires. The Palisades fire – the largest of the fires – “destroyed” historic buildings and other infrastructure at two major parks, according to a statement from California State Parks. Meanwhile, the Los Angeles Times looked at claims and counter-claims about the risk shrubs and brush posed to the spread of the wildfires. Chief Brian Fennessy from the Orange County Fire Authority told the newspaper that clearing brush is “very effective” at limiting fire spread on a normal day, but not against the strength of these fires and winds.

Brazil: COP30, Amazon shipping and soy moratorium

ROCKY WATERS: Brazil’s government cancelled a bid for a “dredging project” to aid the docking of cruise ships in Belém when it hosts COP30 later this year, according to Folha de São Paulo. The dredging, which would remove sediment from the bottom of the port, was expected to impact “the composition of sediments, the behaviour of aquatic mammals and the quality of the water itself”, the newspaper said. The project was aimed to increase accommodation amid a shortage of hotel rooms for the climate summit.

‘RISKY’ SHIPPING PLANS: Meanwhile, Mongabay looked at Brazil’s plans to develop new shipping channels in Amazon waterways, which experts say could “result in conversion of traditional peoples’ lands to carbon-intensive agriculture”. The outlet said the country is “poised” to invest in developing more than 2,000km of channels for agribusiness transport in “shrinking rivers”. Dr José Marengo, a climatologist and hydrology specialist, said it is “crazy” to consider creating the shipping channels in certain rivers because of the “extremely low [water] levels, mainly due to the droughts of 2023 and 2024. It’s very risky.”

SOY PACT: Elsewhere in Brazil, the supreme court will soon rule on a request challenging a state law that would end tax breaks for grain traders who avoid soy from recently deforested areas of the Amazon, Reuters reported. The legislation was passed in Mato Grosso last year, but will not take effect until a final court decision in February, the newswire said. The law added “growing pressure” to Brazil’s soy moratorium – the “voluntary pact” to ban the purchase of soy from deforested Amazon areas after 2008, Reuters noted. Last month, a farmer lobby group asked the country’s antitrust agency to investigate the signatories of this pact, describing them as a “purchasing cartel”, the newswire said.

Spotlight

Illegal rewilding in Scotland

In this Spotlight, Carbon Brief explores the curious case of the illegal reintroduction of four Eurasian lynx in the Scottish Highlands.

A few days ago, a pair of labrador-sized cats with dappled fur and tufty ears were spotted wandering free in Cairngorms national park in the Scottish Highlands.

They were quickly identified as Eurasian lynx, a species of big cat that went extinct in the UK more than 1,000 years ago. (They are still widely found across Europe and Asia).

The cats were released illegally, according to the police and the national park authority. The animals – along with a second pair caught on camera traps a day later – were captured humanely and brought to a nearby wildlife park. One has since died.

While there is a growing movement advocating for the reintroduction of lynx in order to “rewild” Scotland, none of the conservation groups involved with such calls have claimed responsibility for the release.

One charity called the move “reckless” and “highly irresponsible”, warning the cats were most likely raised in captivity and would have died after being left alone in the wild.

Despite this, there is “speculation” that the most likely culprit is “someone who had grown frustrated with the slow progress” of the campaign to reintroduce lynx to Scotland and decided to “take matters into their own hands”, according to the Guardian.

Guerrilla rewilding

The UK has a long history of illegal animal releases shaping its ecosystems.

Multiple introductions of grey squirrels since the 1890s has all but wiped out the native red across most of the country. Further illicit releases, once blamed on the US musician Jimi Hendrix, have allowed feral green parakeets to spread across London and its surrounding areas.

More recently, conservationists have warned of the growing practice of “beaver bombing”, the covert release of beavers into natural areas by advocates who think the government is not moving fast enough to reintroduce the rodents as part of rewilding efforts. (The new Labour government is reportedly blocking plans to legalise beaver releases in England.)

A Eurasian lynx pictured in Norway. Credit: blickwinkel / Alamy Stock Photo

Both beavers and lynx are considered to be “keystone species”, meaning they can have an outsized impact on the environment surrounding them.

A group of beavers released illegally in the River Otter in Devon were given official permission to stay by the government after a five-year trial showed that their dam-building helped to alleviate flood risk and local pollution.

Climate carnivores

Advocates of reintroducing lynx to Scotland say that the predators could help to reshape the forest ecosystem surrounding them through the “ecology of fear”.

In essence, lynx litter the landscape with their faeces and urine, prompting roe deer – their main prey – to keep moving, rather than staying still and overgrazing on young vegetation before it has had a chance to establish.

Over time, this could help to create a denser forest environment, with benefits for storing carbon and boosting biodiversity, it is argued.

However, research has found that local communities in Scotland have mixed feelings about reintroducing lynx.

A study published in 2023 involving interviews with more than 40 people found that some locals were in favour of reintroducing lynx, either for economic or environmental reasons, while others were “unconvinced” of the evidence supporting the benefits or felt strongly opposed to the idea of big cats being set loose.

The farmers’ union NFU Scotland opposes the reintroduction of lynx over fears the animals could hunt and kill livestock.

News and views

BIDEN BACKTRACKS: The Biden administration “abruptly” stepped back from a plan to protect old-growth forests after “pushback from Republicans and the timber industry”, the Associated Press reported. This ended a “years-long process to…better protect old trees that are increasingly threatened by climate change”, the newswire said. Opponents argued that restricting logging in older forests was not necessary, partly because “many forested areas already are protected”, the AP said. Alex Craven from the Sierra Club conservation group said there was a “scientific necessity and public expectation” to protect these forests.

WATER WOES: Climate change is “wreaking havoc” on the Earth’s water cycle, according to the Global Water Monitor’s 2024 report, covered by the Indian Express. Last year, water-related disasters killed at least 8,700 people, displaced 40 million and resulted in economic losses exceeding $550bn globally, the newspaper said. At the same time, there were 38% more record-dry months, compared to the period 1995-2005. In 2025, droughts could intensify in northern South America, southern Africa and parts of Asia, it added.

KOALAS AT RISK: Logging in the proposed “Great Koala national park” in New South Wales, Australia, has increased since 2023, according to an analysis covered by the Guardian. In March 2023, a new Labor state government came into power, promising to protect the area. But the report, from the conservation group North East Forest Alliance, found that more than 7,000 hectares of forest has been logged in the region since then, the newspaper said. New South Wales agriculture minister Tara Moriarty said “the claims in the report are not true” and the government was “getting on with delivering a Great Koala national park while at the same time ensuring a sustainable timber industry”.

BOTSWANA ADAPTATION: Botswana has put forward a new climate plan to the UN, prioritisting adaptation measures, such as introducing drought-tolerant crops and cows, over measures to cut its already-low emissions, Climate Home News reported. Botswana’s climate plan, known as a “nationally determined contribution” (NDC), said that, “as Botswana is one of the lowest emitters in the world, the limited financial resources available will be prioritised for adaptation”. Climate Home News said that the move has been “praised by African climate negotiators as a model that low-emitting, vulnerable countries should follow”.

FUTURE CROP YIELDS: Senior officials in India believe that rice and wheat yields will drop by 6-10% in future due to climate change, the Press Trust of India reported, via the Kashmir Observer. This will “significantly impac[t] farmers and food security”, Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, the director general of the India Meteorological Department, told the newspaper. In 2023-24, India’s wheat output exceeded 113m tonnes – about 14% of the global output, the outlet noted. The country also produced more than 137m tonnes of rice.

Watch, read, listen

BACK IN TIME: The possibilities and scientific developments around species “de-extinction” were discussed in a Yale Environment 360 feature.

ON THE MOVE: An article in Vox explored how wildlife migrations are “increasingly threatened” by roads, climate-fuelled extreme weather and agricultural fields.

DAILY FIX: An editorial in the Financial Times examined how climate change is “mostly to blame” for skyrocketing coffee and chocolate prices.

‘UNIT OF NATURE’: In the first Georgina Mace Review, an annual conservation biology journal named after the late UK scientist, a group of biologists examine whether it is possible to create a standardised measure for biodiversity, otherwise known as a “unit of nature”.

New science

A Nature study found that one-quarter of freshwater animal species are at “high risk” of extinction. The researchers assessed the global extinction risk of more than 23,000 freshwater species, finding that fauna faced several “prevalent threats”, such as pollutants, agriculture and invasive species.
Crop and grass biomass production could decline by more than 50% by 2050 in parts of west Africa due to climate change and other factors, a study in Scientific Reports said. The results of the modelling “underscore the intricate interplay between climate, crops, livestock and emissions”, the researchers wrote.
Forests in Borneo that had been selectively logged retained relatively high levels of biodiversity, compared to areas that had been cleared to make way for palm oil plantations, research in Science found. The findings “demonstrate the complexity of land-use impacts on ecosystems”, the study said.

In the diary

15-18 January: Global Forum for Food and Agriculture | Berlin
16 January: Vanuatu parliamentary elections
16-17 January: G20 first sustainable finance working group meeting | South Africa
20 January: US presidential inauguration day | Washington DC
20-24 January: World Economic Forum annual meeting | Davos, Switzerland

Cropped is researched and written by Dr Giuliana Viglione, Aruna Chandrasekhar, Daisy Dunne, Orla Dwyer and Yanine Quiroz. Please send tips and feedback to cropped@carbonbrief.org

The post Cropped 15 January 2025: LA up in flames; Illegal rewilding in Scotland; COP30 dredging cancelled appeared first on Carbon Brief.

Cropped 15 January 2025: LA up in flames; Illegal rewilding in Scotland; COP30 dredging cancelled

Climate Change

The Global Energy Supply in a Decade ‘Is Not a World We’re Going to Recognize’

Published

10 hours ago

April 8, 2026

Alice Rush

With the U.S. bombing Iran and the Strait of Hormuz closed, energy experts say countries transitioning to renewables will be more resilient in the “face of the shock.”

By Lisa Sorg

The United States’ war on Iran could fundamentally alter how countries consume and generate energy and hamper international progress in combating climate change, a panel of energy experts said today.

The Global Energy Supply in a Decade ‘Is Not a World We’re Going to Recognize’

Climate Change

Iran war analysis: How 60 nations have responded to the global energy crisis

Published

10 hours ago

April 8, 2026

Alice Rush

One month into the US and Israel’s war on Iran, at least 60 countries have taken emergency measures in response to the subsequent global energy crisis, according to analysis by Carbon Brief.

So far, these countries have announced nearly 200 policies to save fuel, support consumers and boost domestic energy supplies.

Carbon Brief has drawn on tracking by the International Energy Agency (IEA) and other sources to assess the global policy response, just as a temporary ceasefire is declared.

Since the start of the war in late February, both sides have bombed vital energy infrastructure across the region as Iran has blocked the Strait of Hormuz – a key waterway through which around a fifth of global oil and liquified natural gas (LNG) trade passes.

This has made it impossible to export the usual volumes of fossil fuels from the region and, as a result, sent prices soaring.

Around 30 nations, from Norway to Zambia, have cut fuel taxes to help people struggling with rising costs, making this by far the most common domestic policy response to the crisis.

Some countries have stressed the need to boost domestic renewable-energy construction, while others – including Japan, Italy and South Korea – have opted to lean more on coal, at least in the short term.

The most wide-ranging responses have been in Asia, where countries that rely heavily on fossil fuels from the Middle East have implemented driving bans, fuel rationing and school closures in order to reduce demand.

‘Largest disruption’

On 28 February, the US and Israel launched a surprise attack on Iran, triggering conflict across the Middle East and sending shockwaves around the world.

There have been numerous assaults on energy infrastructure, including an Iranian attack on the world’s largest LNG facility in Qatar and an Israeli bombing of Iran’s gas sites.

Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint in the Persian Gulf, is causing what the IEA has called the “largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market”.

A fifth of the world’s oil and LNG is normally shipped through this region, with 90% of those supplies going to destinations in Asia. Without these supplies, fuel prices have surged.

Governments around the world have taken emergency actions in response to this new energy crisis, shielding their citizens from price spikes, conserving energy where possible and considering longer-term energy policies.

Even with a two-week ceasefire announced, the energy crisis is expected to continue, given the extensive damage to infrastructure and continuing uncertainties.

Asian crunch

Carbon Brief has used tracking by the IEA, news reports, government announcements and internal monitoring by the thinktank E3G to assess the range of national responses to the energy crisis roughly one month into the Iran war.

In total, Carbon Brief has identified 185 relevant policies, announcements and campaigns from 60 national governments.

As the map below shows, these measures are concentrated in east and south Asia. These regions are facing the most extreme disruption, largely due to their reliance on oil and gas supplies from the Middle East.

The number of policies and other measures announced in response to the energy crisis. The designations employed and the presentation of the material on this map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of Carbon Brief concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. Source: IEA, E3G, Carbon Brief analysis.

Nations including Indonesia, Japan, South Korea and India are already spending billions of dollars on fuel subsidies to protect people from rising costs.

At least 16 Asian countries are also taking drastic measures to reduce fuel consumption. For example, the Philippines has declared a “state of national emergency”, which includes limiting air conditioning in public buildings and subsidising public transport.

Other examples from the region include the government in Bangladesh asking the public and businesses to avoid unnecessary lighting, Pakistan reducing the speed limit on highways and Laos encouraging people to work from home.

Europe – which was hit hard by the 2022 energy crisis due to its reliance on Russian gas – is less immediately exposed to the current crisis than Asia. However, many nations are still heavily reliant on gas, including supplies from Qatar.

The continent is already feeling the effects of higher global energy prices as countries compete for more limited resources.

At least 18 European nations have introduced measures to help people with rising costs. Spain, which is relatively insulated from the crisis due to the high share of renewables in its electricity supply, nevertheless announced a €5bn aid package, with at least six measures to support consumers.

Many African countries, while also less reliant on direct fossil-fuel supplies via the Strait of Hormuz than Asia, are still facing the strain of higher import bills. Some, including Ethiopia, Kenya and Zambia, are also facing severe fuel shortages.

There have been fewer new policies across the Americas, which have been comparatively insulated from the energy crisis so far. One outlier is Chile, which is among the region’s biggest fuel importers and is, therefore, more exposed to global price increases.

Tax cuts

The most common types of policy response to the energy crisis so far have been efforts to protect people and businesses from the surge in fuel prices.

At least 28 nations, including Italy, Brazil and Australia, have introduced a total of 31 measures to cut taxes – and, therefore, prices – on fuel.

Even across Africa, where state revenues are already stretched, some nations – including Namibia and South Africa – are cutting fuel levies in a bid to stabilise prices.

Another 17 countries, including Mexico and Poland, have directly capped the price of fuel. Others, such as France and the UK, have opted for more targeted fuel subsidies, designed to support specific vulnerable groups and industries.

These measures are all shown in the dark blue “consumer support” bars in the chart below.

Number of policies and measures announced by 60 countries, with shades of blue indicating the broad objective of the policy. Source: IEA, E3G, Carbon Brief analysis.

Such measures can directly help consumers, but some leaders, NGOs and financial experts have noted that there is also the risk of them driving inflation and reinforcing reliance on the existing fossil fuel-based system.

Christine Lagarde, president of the European Central Bank, spoke in favour of short-term measures to “smooth the shock”, but noted that “broad-based and open-ended measures may add excessively to demand”.

Measures to conserve energy, of the type that many developing countries in Asia have implemented extensively, have been described by the IEA as “more effective and fiscally sustainable than broad-based subsidies”.

So far, there have been at least 23 such measures introduced to limit the use of transport, particularly private cars.

These include Lithuania cutting train fares, two Australian states making public transport free and Myanmar and South Korea asking people to only drive their cars on certain days.

Clean vs coal

At least eight countries have announced plans to either increase their use of coal or review existing plans to transition away from coal, according to Carbon Brief’s analysis. These include Japan, South Korea, Bangladesh, the Philippines, Thailand, Pakistan, Germany and Italy.

These measures broadly involve delaying coal-plant closure, as in Italy, or allowing older sites to operate at higher rates, as in Japan – rather than building more coal plants.

There has been extensive coverage of how the energy crisis is “driving Asia back to coal”. However, as Bloomberg columnist David Fickling has noted, this shift is relatively small and likely to be offset by a move to cheap solar power in the longer term.

Indeed, some countries have begun to consider changes to the way they use energy going forward, amid a crisis driven by the spiralling costs of fossil-fuel imports.

Leaders in India, Barbados and the UK have explicitly stressed the importance of a structural shift to using clean power. Governments in France and the Philippines are among those linking new renewable-energy announcements with the unfolding crisis.

New renewable-energy capacity will take time to come online, albeit substantially less time than developing new fossil-fuel generation. In the meantime, some nations are also taking short-term measures to make their road transport less reliant on fossil fuels.

For example, the Chilean government has enabled taxi drivers to access preferential credit for purchasing electric vehicles (EVs). Cambodia has cut import taxes on EVs and Laos has lowered excise taxes on them.

Finally, there have been some signs that countries are reconsidering their future exposure to imported fossil fuels, given the current economics of oil and gas.

The New Zealand government has indicated that a plan to build a new LNG terminal by 2027 now faces uncertainty. Reuters reported that Vietnamese conglomerate Vingroup has told the government it wanted to abandon a plan to build a new LNG-fired power plant in Vietnam, in favour of renewables.

The post Iran war analysis: How 60 nations have responded to the global energy crisis appeared first on Carbon Brief.

Iran war analysis: How 60 nations have responded to the global energy crisis

Climate Change

US Senators Investigate $370 Million IRS Payout to Cheniere Energy

Published

10 hours ago

April 8, 2026

Alice Rush

Seven Senate Democrats launched the probe over controversial tax credits to the country’s largest exporter of liquefied natural gas.

By Phil McKenna

Seven Democratic U.S. senators have launched a probe into a $370 million “alternative fuel” payout to Cheniere Energy, made earlier this year by the IRS, that critics say the liquefied natural gas export company never should have received.