Welcome to the first COP28 special edition of DeBriefed, an essential guide to all the key developments at the Dubai climate talks.
This is an online version of Carbon Brief’s weekly DeBriefed email newsletter. Subscribe for free here.
This week
COP28 kick-off
LOSS AND DAMAGE DEAL: The first day of COP28 in Dubai saw agreement on the details of a new “loss-and-damage fund” to help developing countries pay for climate impacts, the Financial Times reported. This comes after a year of “clashes” over “basic issues”, such as who should pay into the fund, the FT said. Several parties, including COP28 host UAE, Germany and the UK, immediately announced “more than $400m” to establish the fund, according to Climate Home News. (The Conversation noted annual loss-and-damage financial needs are “roughly 1,000 times” this amount.)
KING’S SPEECH: The second day of COP28 saw world leaders descend on the conference for the first day of the “World Climate Action Summit”. Opening the event, King Charles warned countries they were “dreadfully far off track” to meeting climate targets and urged them to make COP28 a “critical turning point for genuine transformational action”, the Independent reported. Ahead of his talk, UK prime minister Rishi Sunak told reporters he is “not in hock to ideological zealots” and issued a press release defending climate rollbacks.
COP TEXT TRACKER: After world leaders fly off home on Saturday evening, all attention will turn to COP’s crucial, yet infamously hard-to-follow negotiations. To help keep track of what is happening, Carbon Brief has just launched its traditional COP text tracker, but newly improved thanks to data-scraping wizardry from Dr Simon Evans and Dr Verner Viisainen.
Oily influence
‘OIL-AND-GAS DEALS’: Despite early progress at the summit, a shadow was cast by a series of investigations alleging that the fossil fuel industry could be influencing proceedings. An investigation by BBC News and the Centre for Climate Reporting alleged that the UAE planned to use its role as COP host to strike “secret” oil-and-gas deals behind the scenes of the summit. Journalists at the Centre for Climate Reporting obtained briefing documents from the UAE’s COP28 team that indicated plans to discuss fossil fuel deals with 15 different countries.
‘CAUGHT RED-HANDED’: On Twitter, former UN climate chief Christiana Figueres said the COP28 presidency had been “caught red-handed” and “will be under public scrutiny like no other ever before”. The UAE’s COP28 team at first refused to deny the allegations to BBC News and said that “private meetings are private”. After the story’s release, COP28 president Sultan Al Jaber released a statement saying that the allegations were “false, not true, incorrect and not accurate”, Bloomberg reported.
SAUDI’S OIL PLAN: The Centre for Climate Reporting also released a second investigation alongside Channel 4 News alleging that Saudi Arabia has a plan to “artificially” boost oil consumption in African and Asian countries. In an undercover sting operation, journalists from the Centre for Climate Reporting posed as oil investors and asked officials from Saudi’s ministry of energy whether the country had plans to boost oil demand in certain markets. In response, an official said: “Yes…It’s one of the main objectives that we are trying to accomplish.” Representatives from Saudi’s government refused requests for comment.
Around the world
- MIND ON METHANE: The US and China plan to hold a joint summit on methane and other non-CO2 greenhouse gases during COP28, the South China Morning Post reported. This follows a pledge from the two countries to “jointly tackle global warming” by “ramping up” renewables.
- DECARBONISING CLUB: Germany and Chile are set to launch a “club of governments” to help developing nations invest in cutting industry emissions, particularly from “hard-to-abate sectors” such as steel and cement, according to Reuters.
- KENYA FLOODS: At least 76 people have died and 40,000 have been displaced since heavy rains and flash floods began “pounding” Kenya in October, the Associated Press reported.
- INFLUENCING AFRICA: Climate Home News obtained leaked documents and interviewed multiple people about the alleged influence of the US consultancy firm McKinsey on Africa’s first climate summit.
- PHASE-OUT: Sunak was warned by the UK’s oil and gas regulator that his plan to introduce annual North Sea licensing rounds was “not necessary” to boost production, the Financial Times reported. Former prime minister Theresa May told the Times she disagreed with Sunak’s oil-and-gas push.
84,101
The number of registered delegates at COP28, the biggest UN climate summit in history, according to newly released Carbon Brief analysis.
Latest climate research
- Accounting for the long-term impacts of tropical cyclones increases the “social cost of carbon” – a metric that assesses the societal costs of CO2 emissions – by more than 20%, according to a new study in Nature Communications.
- Global warming could intensify heavy rainfall more than expected, according to a Journal of Climate study using high-resolution climate models.
- There is “little trade-off” between alleviating extreme poverty and limiting global warming, with ending extreme poverty expected to have a “negligible impact” on emissions, according to a Nature study.
(For more, see Carbon Brief’s in-depth daily summaries of the top climate news stories on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.)
Captured
The UK’s contribution to climate change since the start of the industrial era is almost twice as high when its activities in former colonies are taken into account, according to new Carbon Brief analysis covered by the Guardian. This is illustrated in the graphic above, which shows CO2 emissions caused by the UK both within its own borders (blue) and in colonised countries under British rule (red). The story is part of a wider Carbon Brief investigation into how considering colonial rule radically shifts responsibility for climate change globally, covered by the Hindustan Times in India and the NRC newspaper in the Netherlands, among others.
Spotlight
Key issues to watch at COP28
This week, Carbon Brief’s team of COP28 reporters break down the key issues to watch as the summit’s first days unfold.
Fossil fuels
As delegates gather in a petrostate made luxurious by fossil-fuel wealth, all eyes are on how COP host UAE will deal with growing calls for countries to commit to phasing out fossil fuels.
The need to “phase down unabated coal” use was mentioned in a COP legal text for the first time at the end of COP26 in Glasgow two years ago. At last year’s talks, COP27 host and oil-and-gas producer Egypt ignored repeated calls for the “phase out” of all fossil fuels to be discussed as part of the summit’s final agreement.
Ahead of COP28, allegations that the UAE planned to use COP to make “secret” oil and gas deals (see above) raised significant doubts about the presidency’s impartiality.
However, during the summit’s opening press conference on Thursday, COP28 president Sultan Al Jaber indicated that he would support including fossil fuels in negotiating texts in the context of tackling climate change – and an early stage negotiating text for the global stocktake (see below) released on Friday morning does make reference to “fossil fuels”. It is yet to be seen whether such references will survive the days to come.
Global stocktake
The “global stocktake” (GST) is the first major review of countries’ progress towards meeting the goals of the Paris Agreement, with an aim of encouraging nations to take more ambitious action.
The two-year process is set to wrap up at COP28. At the first press conference of the talks, Al Jaber told reporters he was “laser-focused” on delivering an ambitious GST. “I’m determined to demonstrate that this presidency is different,” he added.
While the GST’s “technical” phase finished with a report that spelt out the clear shortfall of climate action, finance and capacity to cope, states still have to sign off on political takeaways to deliver faster emissions reductions.
The GST decision is likely to be the main landing zone for language around phasing out fossil fuels, while providing guidance to countries on the next round of climate pledges and how they can course-correct against the 1.5C limit.
The first bare-bones draft of this decision text was published on Friday and mentions peaking global emissions, fossil fuel phase-out or phase down, as well as phase down of unabated coal power. While this is an early-stage draft that could see many iterations and cuts, observers expressed tentative optimism about its contents.
Climate finance
The most high-profile climate-finance outcome of COP28 will undoubtedly be the agreement on the loss-and-damage fund (see above). Yet, with so much climate action depending on scaling up finance for developing countries, the issue permeates the whole event.
On the first day of COP, Canada and Germany assured attendees that developed countries “likely” hit their outstanding $100bn annual climate finance goal last year. But, with the numbers to support this claim still unavailable, developing countries are unlikely to drop the issue. A decision on the new goal to replace the $100bn is not expected until next year.
For the past couple of years, there has been growing pressure on development banks and the private sector to fund more climate action. Building on this, on day two of the conference, 10 countries including the US, the UK, Kenya and Barbados banded together with a “leaders declaration” on a new framework for financial system reform.
Funding for climate adaptation still lags far behind support for emissions-cutting technologies. There are hopes that negotiations on the global goal on adaptation and the global stocktake could both provide venues in which to remedy this.
Food systems
Historically not garnering as much attention at COPs as fossil fuels, the world’s food systems – which account for a third of all human-caused emissions – are on the menu in Dubai. COP28 is the first to designate an entire thematic day for food and agriculture, taking place next weekend.
During the World Climate Action Summit on Friday, UAE environment and climate change minister Mariam Almheiri announced the Emirates Declaration on Sustainable Agriculture, Resilient Food Systems and Climate Action. Some 134 countries signed the agreement at the time of the announcement. The declaration included a recognition of the impacts that the agricultural sector is already experiencing due to climate change and an intention to integrate food systems into national climate plans (called “nationally determined contributions” or NDCs) and other national strategies before COP30 in Brazil.
Most of the new announcements on food systems at COP28 will occur through pledges, rather than negotiated outcomes. Expect to see new funding and new promises from both governments and non-state actors over the next week and a half.
Watch, read, listen
COP OVERVIEW: The Guardian has released a podcast on “everything you need to know” about COP28.
EXTRA READING: Hardy COP watchers at the Third World Network have released an update on what to expect at the Dubai talks.
EXTRA EXTRA READING: The daily summaries from observers at the Earth Negotiations Bulletin are a must-read for COP attendees. Pay attention to the “in the corridors” section for a sense of how behind-the-scenes negotiations are progressing.
Coming up at COP28
- 1-2 December: World Climate Action Summit and high-level segment for heads of government
- 2 December: High-level party event: nation-states join forces to pursue a fossil fuel non-proliferation treaty negotiating mandate
- 2 December: Leaders’ event: protecting nature for climate, lives, and livelihoods
- 3 December: 2023 high-level ministerial dialogue on the new collective quantified goal on climate finance, online
- 5 December: Eliminating methane emissions by 2030
Pick of the jobs
- University of Oxford, postdoctoral research fellow in environmental economics | Salary: £45,585-£54,395. Location: Oxford, UK
- Proof, investigative climate reporter | Salary: $2,000 a week. Location: Remote (EST time zone)
- Covering Climate Now, associate audience editor | Salary: $65,000-$72,000. Location: Remote
DeBriefed is edited by Daisy Dunne. Please send any tips or feedback to debriefed@carbonbrief.org
The post COP28 DeBriefed 1 December 2023: Countries strike loss and damage deal; Oil influence; Key issues to watch appeared first on Carbon Brief.
Vishal Prasad is director of Pacific Islands Students Fighting Climate Change.
When the International Court of Justice (ICJ) delivered its advisory opinion on climate change last year, it marked a turning point not just for the Pacific, but for international climate law.
The court was unambiguous: states have legal obligations to protect the environment from greenhouse gas emissions, and they face accountability when they fail. For those of us who carried this campaign from a classroom in Vanuatu to Europe and New York, it was a moment of profound validation.
World’s top court opens door to compensation from countries responsible for climate crisis
But we have always said that the advisory opinion was a tool, not an endpoint. The ICJ affirmed what many in the Pacific have been saying for some time. Now we have a legal blueprint, we must carry this momentum from the courtrooms to the negotiating rooms.
Potential to shape climate politics
The advisory opinion has already begun to reshape the climate landscape. At COP30 in Belém, we saw countries that had supported the campaign citing the opinion in their interventions, while those blocking progress were clearly concerned of its implications. Its potential to shape climate politics and policy is significant.
This year we have arrived at the mid-year climate negotiations in Bonn not only with the advisory opinion, but with a UN General Assembly resolution endorsing it. Despite a fierce campaign from the usual suspects, just eight countries, including the USA, Saudi Arabia, Russia and Iran voted against. That is a victory for multilateralism at a moment when multilateralism is under strain.
UN General Assembly backs “climate obligations” set by world’s top court
But we know that advisory opinions alone are not enough. Legal clarity will not automatically translate into reduced emissions, increased finance flows or stronger national climate plans. That translation requires political will in the negotiating rooms, both here in Bonn and all the way through Fiji and finally in Antalya this November.
What the Pacific needs from this negotiating year
The Pacific put significant political capital into the joint Australia-Pacific bid for COP31. It is fair to say that the compromise of Australia holding the role of president of negotiations while the COP is held and presided over by Türkiye is not what we imagined.
But we in the Pacific are used to looking for silver linings. Both Australia and Türkiye have acknowledged the important role the Pacific will have at COP31, through the appointment of Pacific champions and the hosting of a Pacific Pre-COP in Fiji with a leaders event in Tuvalu. These are genuine opportunities to bring the world to our shores and ensure that Pacific issues are front and centre going into the final negotiations.
But we are not naive. Envoy positions and meeting locations are just the architecture of goodwill. We need to see that goodwill converted into concrete negotiating outcomes and finance.
COP31 leaders unveil global targets, with spotlight on electrification
The Pacific helped put Australia’s climate minister Chris Bowen in this important position, so we expect to see Australia advocate not only for us, but to turn a mirror towards itself as one of the world’s biggest fossil fuel exporters.
At Bonn, and then in Antalya, we need ambition on mitigation that reflects the ICJ’s clarity on state obligations and the science. That means action on fossil fuels.
We need climate finance that is new, additional and accessible to the countries that need it most. In the Pacific we have already demonstrated what that looks like.
The Pacific Resilience Facility is the first climate finance facility designed, governed and managed by Pacific people, built specifically to reach the grassroots and community initiatives that larger funds routinely bypass. We need the international community to meet that ambition with contributions that reflect climate justice, starting with pledges to meet the $500-million capitalisation goal.
And we need the oceans – which are the lifeblood of the Pacific and a critical part of the global climate system – treated as a central element of the negotiations rather than a thematic aside.
Energy crisis driven by imported fossil fuels
The days of speaking about climate and fossil fuels purely as a moral issue are long gone. Pacific ministers recently adopted the Tassiriki Call for a Fossil Fuel Free Pacific, in the context of a deepening energy crisis that has triggered states of emergency in several Pacific nations. Our dependence on imported fossil fuels is both a climate and an economic vulnerability.
Conflict in the Middle East is pushing our region into an energy crisis. We are dependent on imported fossil fuels for 80% of our energy needs. My home country of Fiji could see an increased fuel bill of nearly three times our annual healthcare budget.
Comment: COP31 must persuade countries to make fossil fuel transition plans
We need the technical and financial support to transition to 100% renewable energy. Not only because it is what the world owes us for decades of carbon pollution that continue to render parts of our home uninhabitable, damaging ecosystems and culture. But because we must be part of that transition. Fossil fuels have proven to be the greatest source of damage to our climate, and with their volatility, to our sovereignty as well.
What next?
The demands have not changed. Greater action on mitigation, adaptation, finance, loss and damage: these remain the substance of what the Pacific requires from the international community. What has changed is the legal foundation beneath them.
The ICJ has affirmed that these are not requests. They are obligations. The task this year is to make the negotiations reflect that.
The post The Pacific made history in the courts – now we must do it in the negotiations appeared first on Climate Home News.
The Pacific made history in the courts – now we must do it in the negotiations
A 20-year record reveals an estuary tipping toward a saltier, more acidic state. These conditions threaten its hammerhead shark nursery and the aquifer that supplies Miami’s drinking water.
In the shadow of Miami’s skyline, in water churned daily by boats and jet skis, juvenile great hammerhead sharks—a critically endangered species—spend the first two years of their lives. A few miles from downtown, researchers recently pulled a 12-foot critically endangered sawfish from the same shallows. The species has been dying off in alarming numbers across South Florida’s waters since 2024, in an event scientists suspect was set in motion by record ocean heat.
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