The “monsoon downpour” that triggered deadly landslides in Kerala’s Wayanad district last month was made 10% heavier by human-caused climate change, a new rapid attribution study says.
The landslides followed an “exceptional spell of monsoon rain” on 30 July. They have killed at least 230 people, with more than one hundred people still missing and rescue operations ongoing.
Analysis by the World Weather Attribution (WWA) service shows the rainfall that hit Wayanad on 30 July was the region’s third-heaviest period on record, surpassing even the extreme rainfall that led to flooding in Kerala in 2018.
The team of 24 researchers from India, Malaysia, US, Sweden, Netherlands and UK find that downpours of this intensity have already become 17% heavier in the last 45 years.
In a world where average global temperatures are 2C above pre-industrial levels, they estimate that extreme single-day bursts of rainfall in Kerala could become a further 4% heavier, potentially leading to even more catastrophic landslides.
The study also looks at other “mixed” factors that may have contributed to the high casualties and Wayanad’s “increased susceptibility” to landslides. These include a 62% loss of forest cover in the district and warnings that “failed to reach many people”.
Slippery slope
Wayanad is a mountainous district in northern Kerala in India’s Western Ghats – a chain of mountains older than the Himalaya that runs parallel to the country’s western coast.
With its high elevation and steep slopes – combined with a tendency to receive “prolonged” rainfall and widespread changes to its natural vegetation – Wayanad is highly landslide-prone. It is the most susceptible district to landslides in Kerala, which accounted for 59% of the country’s landslides over 2015-22.

From 22 June onwards, Wayanad saw “nearly continuous” monsoon rainfall, the WWA study says – with some areas recording over 1.8 metres of rain in just a month.
On 30 July, Wayanad witnessed what study author Dr Mariam Zachariah – a research associate at Imperial College’s London’s Grantham Institute for Climate Change – calls “an extreme burst” of more than 140mm of rain in a single day. This is equivalent to nearly a quarter of the rain London receives all year. This rain landed on loose, erodible soils already saturated by two months of monsoon rains.
The first landslide that began at an altitude of 1,550 metres struck the village of Mundakkai at midnight on 30 July, followed by three more landslides within three hours, hitting the villages of Chooralmala and Attamala.
Torrents of mud, water and rock buried several neighbourhoods, swept away victims and collapsed an arterial bridge, delaying rescue operations to the hardest-hit areas.

While state authorities say that the death toll at the time of writing is 231, media reports suggest that the actual number of lives lost to the landslides is greater than 400 – disproportionately impacting migrant workers working in farms, holiday resorts and tea plantations.
In a press briefing, study author Prof Arpita Mondal from the Indian Institute of Technology Bombay said the “scale of the event was so huge that the debris registered a flow of several kilometres”, adding that “body parts have been recovered from downstream rivers as far as tens of kilometres from the location of the landslides”.
The event, she says, was “particularly devastating to two villages – Mundakkai and Chooralmala”, with one official telling News Minute that “I don’t think the Chooralmala ward will exist anymore”.
Monsoon downpour
To put Wayanad’s intense rainfall into its historical context and determine how unlikely it was, the authors analysed a timeseries of one-day maximum rainfall during the June-to-September monsoon season, focusing on northern Kerala.
They find that 140mm of rainfall hit northern Kerala on 30 July 2024, ranking as the third heaviest one-day rainfall event in a record stretching back to 1901.
The intensity of this rainfall surpassed even the “torrential” rainfall that hit large regions of Kerala in 2018, killing more than 40 people and earning the title of Kerala’s “worst floods in nearly a century”.
The map below shows total rainfall on 30 July 2024 in northern Kerala, based on data from the Indian Meteorological Department. Dark blue indicates a high total daily rainfall and yellow indicates a low total. The study region is shown in red on the map.

Total rainfall on 30 July 2024, based on data from the Indian Meteorological Department. Dark blue indicates a high total daily rainfall and yellow indicates a low total. The study region is shown in red. Source: WWA (2024)
The authors find that in today’s climate, this intense one-day rainfall is a one-in-50 year event.
Separately, using satellite observations, the authors find that heavy one-day rainfall events over northern Kerala have become about 17% more intense in the last 45 years, in which time the global climate has warmed by around 0.85C.
Attribution
Attribution is a fast-growing field of climate science that aims to identify the “fingerprint” of climate change on extreme-weather events, such as heatwaves and droughts.
In this study, the authors investigated the impact of climate change specifically on the heavy rainfall in northern Kerala on 30 July 2024.
To conduct attribution studies, scientists use climate models to compare the world as it is today to a “counterfactual” world, without the 1.3C of human-caused warming.
The authors find that climate change made the intense rainfall on 30 July around 10% more intense.
This “may not sound like very much, but really, when you are looking at this amount of rainfall, that is a lot of extra rain”, Dr Claire Barnes, a research associate at Imperial College’s London’s Grantham Institute for Climate Change, and author on the study, told the press briefing.
The authors note that Kerala is a mountainous region with “complex rainfall-climate dynamics” and explain that there is a high level of uncertainty in the model results.
However, Zachariah told the press briefing that the study findings are “consistent with Clausius Clapeyron relationship”, which states that the air can generally hold around 7% more moisture for every 1C of temperature rise.
The authors also investigate how rainfall intensity might change as the planet continues to warm. They find that if the planet were to warm to 2C above pre-industrial temperatures, rainfall intensity in northern Kerala is expected to become a further 4% more intense.
The study says that this increase in rainfall intensity is “likely to increase the potential number of landslides that could be triggered in the future”.
(These findings are yet to be published in a peer-reviewed journal. However, the methods used in the analysis have been published in previous attribution studies.)
Land-use change
The Western Ghats and their high-mountain tropical forest ecosystems are internationally recognised as a biodiversity hotspot and influence Indian monsoon weather patterns.
Wayanad is known for its dense forests and rich biodiversity, but it has also seen significant deforestation and land-use change.
While heavy rainfall was “a trigger” for the devastating landslides, human intervention “has played an important role, there’s no doubt about it”, says Madhavan Rajeevan, India’s former Earth sciences secretary who was not involved in the study. He tells Carbon Brief:
“In many interviews with local people, they say that [large-scale] construction work was going on in the worst-hit areas. And that construction [was done] by removing the local [Indigenous people] staying in the forest. But the landslide doesn’t differentiate between rich and poor. If there was no substantial human intervention in that area for the last four or five years, I’m very sure this landslide would not have happened.”
Between 1950 and 2018, Wayanad lost 62% of its forest cover while land under tea plantations grew by 1,800%, according to one study. The district’s high slopes are also host to coffee, pepper, tea and cardamom plantations, as well as being dotted by luxury resorts.
At the same time, a rise in construction and quarrying for building stones in recent years has “raise[d] concerns” among scientists about the impacts on the stability of hill slopes in the area.
On 31 July, the day after disaster struck, India’s climate ministry issued the sixth draft of a notification to classify parts of the Western Ghats as ecologically sensitive areas (ESAs), 14 years after experts had recommended curbs on development in the region.
Environmental lawyer Shibani Ghosh tells Carbon Brief that, to date, 72,000 square kilometres of the Western Ghats identified by these experts “do not even fall within the ambit of any proposed conservation scheme”.
While environmentalists still have “serious apprehensions” about the area that will be excluded from the Western Ghats ESA in the new draft, “had it been declared [even in its unsatisfactory form] by now, environmentally harmful activities would have been regulated, and perhaps the impact of these natural calamities would have been much less”, she adds.
Rajeevan, additionally, points to how the monsoon has changed in Kerala. He says:
“We know that seasonal rainfall is very high in the west coast, it rains continuously for many days and many hours, but the amount used to be very small: in millimetres per hour. But recent studies are suggesting that these shallow clouds are changing into deep convective clouds that drop very heavy rain in a very short spell, and that could be attributed to warming over the Arabian Sea.”
At the same time, forecasting is another issue that the study raises, drawing attention to the fact that warnings failed to reach many and impacts were not specifically spelt out.

In the aftermath of the landslides, whether meteorological authorities warned of heavy rains became the subject of parliamentary debate. But Rajeevan points out that accurate rain warnings alone are not enough:
“Red alerts and yellow alerts for the whole state or a few districts do not translate into a landslide warning. A district collector cannot translate them or take a decision. The Geological Survey of India issued a warning, but it was not alarming and a sophisticated, real-time landslide alert system needs a lot of money.
“The best solution is to identify and rehabilitate people living in landslide prone areas and to not trouble them by removing their forests.”
The post Climate change made ‘monsoon downpour’ behind Kerala landslides 10% more intense appeared first on Carbon Brief.
Climate change made ‘monsoon downpour’ behind Kerala landslides 10% more intense
Climate Change
The Invisible Infrastructure of Climate Resilience
Katharine K. Wilkinson’s new book explores the movement through climate grief and describes how to look inward with care and outward with curiosity and courage.
After years working in the climate movement, Katharine K. Wilkinson noticed that advocates consistently lacked the emotional stamina and support needed to stay active, inspired and connected to others engaged in climate work.
Climate Change
UN chief says fossil fuel industry must cut methane for warming “relief”
UN chief António Guterres called on Tuesday for stronger action to cut emissions of planet-heating methane, taking aim at the fossil fuel industry’s practices and profits, and pointing to coal, oil and gas as the root of today’s climate and energy crises.
In a major speech at London Climate Action Week, with the British capital under a heatwave warning, the UN Secretary-General said countries had not done enough to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in line with what is needed to keep warming below the globally agreed goal of 1.5C.
“The task before us is to strictly limit the overshoot, shorten its duration, and bring temperatures down below 1.5 degrees Celsius as fast as possible,” Guterres said. One way of doing that, he added, is by cutting methane emissions first.
He noted that methane – a potent greenhouse gas that traps around 80 times more heat than carbon dioxide – is responsible for around one-third of global warming but breaks down in the atmosphere within a decade or two.
“That means that aggressive cuts could produce visible temperature relief within a generation,” the UN chief emphasised, launching a global call to action on methane covering fossil fuel production, agriculture and organic waste disposal.
Of the three main sources of methane, he singled out the fossil fuel industry, where he said “the most immediate gains can be made”.
He cited the International Energy Agency (IEA) finding that around 70% of oil and gas methane emissions can be eliminated using existing technology, mostly at low or no net cost. This is because the gas leaking from coal mines and oil and gas production facilities can be captured and then used or sold.
Despite this, in 2025 alone, Guterres said some 167 billion cubic metres of gas were flared – as much as Africa consumes in a year.
“I am urging the fossil fuel industry to step up and do what is long overdue,” added the UN chief, whose term ends this year.
Guterres said voluntary action “is no longer enough” and there were similar global precedents for getting rid of harmful substances, including leaded petrol and ozone-depleting chemicals. “Methane pollution must be next,” he emphasised.
Methane emissions stuck at highs
The latest Global Methane Tracker report from the IEA shows that methane emissions from fossil fuels remained at very high levels in 2025, with no sign of a decline globally despite progress in some countries. In 2025, energy generated 41% of global methane emissions, followed by agriculture (40%) and waste (17%).
On Tuesday, a World Bank tracker showed that global gas flaring rose for the third year in a row in 2025, wasting an estimated $54 billion worth of gas by burning it off.
Demetrios Papathanasiou, the World Bank Group’s global director for energy, said that at a time when many countries are struggling to expand their access to affordable and reliable energy, “the economic development costs of continued flaring are simply too high”. “The gas currently flared could be captured to power industries and businesses, create jobs and strengthen energy security,” he said in a statement.
As well as easing climate change, the IEA says capturing waste methane could help improve gas market security after Iran’s near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz removed close to 20% of global liquefied natural gas supply from the market.
The prime minister of Barbados, Mia Mottley, last year called on leaders at the UN General Assembly to draw up a “legally binding global agreement” to reduce methane emissions, an idea that is also supported by France.
Mottley’s “legally binding” methane pact faces barriers, but smaller steps possible
However, Guterres stopped short of supporting such a solution on Tuesday, throwing his weight instead behind a proposal for governments to set a new global standard for net near-zero methane emissions across the value chain in the oil and gas sector.
This initiative, outlined in a report on the new call to action, would establish a common, internationally recognised methane intensity benchmark, for use by both producers and consumers. Compliance with the standard would then become a condition for financing, procurement and long‑term market access.
Voluntary action ‘not enough’
In recent years, countries and companies willing to act on the methane problem have teamed up on the Global Methane Pledge, which aims to cut methane emissions by 30% by 2030 from 2020 levels, and the UAE-led Oil and Gas Decarbonisation Charter, signed by over 50 oil and gas companies. But their success has been limited in real terms.
Speaking at a separate event on Monday, Jonathan Banks, vice president of methane pollution prevention at the Clean Air Task Force (CATF), said the global pledge had been successful in creating “high-level political buy-in”, raising more money to detect methane emissions and helping countries plug their sources.
But it “is not there to be this all-encompassing binding treaty that drives emissions down”, he added.
At last year’s COP30, 11 countries representing around 10% of global oil production and 18% of gas exports signed a pledge to “drastically reduce” methane emissions in the fossil fuel sector, including by eliminating routine gas flaring and venting.
Comment: Curbing methane is the fastest way to slow warming – but we’re off the pace
The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) also runs a system that detects methane leaks around the world. It has issued more than 5,000 alerts across 33 countries, but received responses in only 12% of cases.
Meghan Demeter, a programme manager at the UNEP service, said on Monday that countries face several barriers to responding to the alerts, including limited capacity to interpret the data and act on it, as well as funding shortages, particularly among national oil companies.
A senior UN official told journalists that existing initiatives on methane had raised awareness of the issue but had failed to deliver the emissions cuts needed. “’It’s absolutely critical that governments step in and strongly regulate the oil and gas sector,” he added.
Norway leads the way
As an example of how this could work, the call to action report singled out Norway, which banned routine flaring in 1971, imposed a tax on emissions from petroleum production and transport in 1991, and increased its tax on flaring and methane emissions in 2017. It now has one of the lowest methane emissions intensities of upstream oil and gas production in the world.
The report said that if all countries matched Norway’s standards, global methane emissions from oil and gas operations could fall by roughly 90%.
Recent COP hosts Brazil and Azerbaijan linked to “super-emitting” methane plumes
It added that China, Canada, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar reduced or maintained their methane emissions from oil and gas production between 2023 and 2024, even as output increased, indicating a decline in the emissions intensity of their operations.
On Monday, the Fossil Fuel Regulatory Programme (FFRP), a UNEP-backed initiative that works with governments to strengthen regulatory frameworks for cutting methane emissions from their energy sectors, added Egypt, Brazil, and Bosnia and Herzegovina to its existing partners, Ghana, Kazakhstan and Iraq.
Windfall tax on fossil fuel profits
Guterres also made a strong push for states to hit the very deep pockets of fossil fuel companies with windfall taxes, as countries like the UK, Italy or Spain have done in recent years.
He said fossil energy giants had reaped ”extraordinary profits”, with the eight biggest making an extra $6.5 billion in the first quarter of this year alone, which included only one month of the Middle East crisis which has pushed up oil prices.
“These are windfall gains born of pain – of instability, hardship and dependence. I urge governments to tax them,” said the UN chief.
He added that the proceeds should be used “where they belong: helping vulnerable families and communities, and accelerating the shift to clean, affordable energy”.
The post UN chief says fossil fuel industry must cut methane for warming “relief” appeared first on Climate Home News.
UN chief says fossil fuel industry must cut methane for warming “relief”
Climate Change
China’s coal-chemicals boom risks repeating the mistakes of the past
Aiqun Yu, Christine Shearer and Joe Hittinger work at Global Energy Monitor, a US-based organisation that seeks to provide the worldwide energy transition with transparent data and analysis.
With global oil and gas prices soaring at the start of the Iran war, China quietly broke ground on three major coal-to-gas and coal-to-chemical projects worth roughly $10 billion in two regions with abundant coal resources.
But as a Chinese saying goes, “three feet of ice does not form in a single day”. China’s push to use coal as a substitute for imported oil and gas has been gathering momentum since the Russia-Ukraine war began in 2022, prompting a recalibration of energy security priorities in Beijing and beyond.
The policy raises new concerns, threatening China’s climate goals and growing reputation as a global clean energy leader by creating renewed demand for coal.
A new expansion wave
Over the past three years, China has entered a new cycle of investment in so-called “modern coal chemicals”, differentiated from conventional coal chemicals. Four pathways – coal-to-gas, coal-to-liquids, coal-to-olefins, and coal-to-ethylene glycol – account for the bulk of new modern coal-chemical capacity under development.
According to Global Energy Monitor data, proposed and under-construction coal-to-gas capacity is approaching three times current operating capacity. Together, 34 projects under active consideration represent more than 1 trillion yuan ($150 billion) in planned investment and could add roughly 300 million tonnes of annual coal demand if completed, equivalent to South Africa’s entire coal mining capacity.
Most projects are in Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi and Ningxia, regions with plentiful coal resources and relatively low mining costs. Xinjiang has emerged as the epicentre of the new boom, accounting for more than half of all proposed modern coal chemical projects.
Why the world abandoned coal chemicals
Coal chemicals are often presented as an emerging industry, but the technologies themselves are more than a century old.
Earlier “conventional” coal chemistry was a byproduct of coking, a process run primarily for iron and steel making. “Modern” coal chemistry instead uses gasification to convert coal into synthesis gas, a versatile building block for fuels, plastics, fertilisers and other chemicals that would traditionally be made from oil or gas.
These modern processes were developed in the early 20th century and expanded during periods of wartime fuel shortages. For example, Germany relied heavily on synthetic fuels during the Second World War while South Africa developed similar technologies in the apartheid era to reduce vulnerability to international sanctions.


Once cheap oil and gas became widely available, however, most countries moved away from coal chemicals, which required large amounts of energy, water and capital investment, and generally produced more pollution and carbon emissions than the conventional alternatives.
Today, only a handful of commercial coal gasification facilities operate outside China.
China has already tested this theory once
The current expansion is not China’s first attempt to build a major coal chemical industry.
A previous boom emerged during the 2010s, driven by many of the same arguments: high oil prices, concerns over energy security and expectations that technological improvements would unlock a new era of coal-based industrial growth.
Brazil jostles for rare earths share as US-China rivalry heats up
The outcome was far from successful. Dozens of projects were proposed, but many were delayed, suspended or scrapped before completion, and there were difficulties among those that did get off the ground.
Three of China’s four operating coal-to-gas projects reportedly spent much of the past decade operating at a loss, and several large coal chemical facilities generated only marginal returns despite government support.
Policy support is driving the revival
Backers say technological improvements have made the industry more competitive than it was a decade ago.
Yet coal chemical projects remain highly dependent on oil and gas prices. When international prices rise, coal-derived products can appear competitive. When prices fall, the economics often deteriorate rapidly.
More than changes in technology, government policy has played a pivotal role in the sector’s revival.
Following power shortages in 2021 and the energy market disruptions that followed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, energy security became a national priority. Coal production expanded, particularly in western China, boosted by government support.
China’s solar exports reach “gigantic” record in March as energy crisis bites
A key policy change in 2022 exempted coal used as industrial feedstock from certain energy consumption controls, easing regulatory pressure on coal chemical projects.
The impact of such measures highlights the degree to which coal chemicals depend on expansive and favourable policy treatment to remain viable.
At the same time, the current expansion is creating new demand for an industry confronting structural decline as China races to renewables in electricity generation.
The cost to China’s climate leadership
Converting coal into fuels and petrochemical products also releases substantially more carbon dioxide than conventional oil- and gas-based alternatives, which themselves are a major source of emissions.
Proponents argue that coupling production with green hydrogen and carbon capture could resolve the emissions problem, but the arithmetic doesn’t support this.
Sinopec’s flagship Dalu coal-to-olefins plant, paired with a 10,000 tonne-per-year green hydrogen demonstration, displaces less than 2% of the plant’s annual coal use. Replicating this across the proposed buildout would consume enormous quantities of clean energy just to partially decarbonise an inherently dirty process.
China could instead leverage that same industrial capacity and policy support to lead the development of cleaner chemical pathways, such as green ammonia for fertiliser, bio-based and CO2-derived feedstocks for plastics, and e-fuels or biofuels where liquid fuels are still needed.
Rather than locking in another generation of coal-dependent infrastructure, China should learn from the lessons of the past and seek a cleaner and more viable industrial future.
The post China’s coal-chemicals boom risks repeating the mistakes of the past appeared first on Climate Home News.
China’s coal-chemicals boom risks repeating the mistakes of the past
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